Eurusd forum

EUR/USD Price Interpretation
EUR/USD currency pair ke price behavior ka analysis ab humari discussion ka mawzu hai. Forex neural network ke technical algorithm ne potential upward movement ko suggest kiya hai jo resistance level 1.1140 tak ja sakta hai. Bulls kaafi strong lag rahe hain aur ye upward push jari rehne ka imkaan hai, jis se ye scenario plausible ban jata hai. Ye forecast ek clear upward trajectory ko indicate karta hai, aur agar buyers current resistance range ke upar apni position bana lete hain, toh hum ek sustainable upward movement dekh sakte hain, jo is forecast ko buy karne ke liye aur bhi solid bana deta hai. Lekin agar bulls apni upward momentum ko qaim rakhne mein nakam hotay hain, toh sellers control apne haath mein le sakte hain. Ye note karna zaroori hai ke false breakout ka imkaan hota hai, jo aise scenarios mein aam hota hai. Jabke primary outlook successful upward move ki taraf hai, aik alternative scenario ko bhi nazar mein rakhna chahiye. Agar buyers fail karte hain, toh sellers price ko ek significant support level tak le ja sakte hain pehle ke dobara upside reversal ho.

Eurozone mein, S&P Global se preliminary composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) ki report 54.1 aayi, jo expected 53.5 se zyada hai lekin pichlay mahine ke 54.3 se neeche hai. Is overall positive reading ke bawajood, Germany se kuch troubling signs aaye hain, jo ke Eurozone ki sab se badi economy hai. Germany mein business activity ka contraction doosre consecutive month ke liye hua hai, aur ye downturn ke initial expectations se bhi zyada tha. Iske ilawa, Euro area mein negotiated wage growth slow ho kar 3.55% par aagayi second quarter of 2024 mein, jabke pehle quarter mein ye 4.74% thi. Ye factors European Central Bank (ECB) ke taraf se do aur rate cuts ka imkaan barhate hain iss saal ke aakhir tak, jo euro ki bullish momentum ko limit kar sakte hain. Dusri taraf, Atlantic ke paar, USD Index, jo dollar ko chhe major currencies ke against measure karta hai, sharp decline dekhne ko mili hai jo 101.00 ke aas paas hai—ye level last seven months mein nahi dekha gaya. Ye drop ek brief


rebound ke baad aayi jo nearly 101.60 tak gaya tha. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell ke recent comments at the Jackson Hole Symposium ne bhi market expectations ko asar-andaz kiya hai. Powell ne interest rate reductions ki zarurat ko highlight kiya, aur evolving labor market conditions aur robust job market ke liye support ki zarurat ko emphasize kiya. Unke bayan ne Fed ke tayyari ko reinforce kiya ke policy ko economic shifts ke hawalay se adjust kiya jaaye.

EUR/USD pair ne Jumay ko ek aam harkat dikhayi. Price puri European trading session mein stagnant rahi, aur phir U.S. session ke aghaz par ek jazbaati tezi expected thi. Us waqt, U.S. ne NonFarm Payrolls, unemployment rates, aur average earnings ke reports publish kiye. In reports ko wazeh tor par interpret karna mushkil tha kyun ke unemployment rate thoda kam hua magar forecast ke andar hi raha; NonFarms ki tadaad forecast se thodi kam thi magar pehli value se zyada thi; wages mein izafa hua, jo ke Federal Reserve ke taraf se monetary policy ke aggressive easing ke chances ko kuch kam karta hai. Market ne in data ko “shara'iti tor par positive” samjha, aur dollar thoda barh gaya. Lekin yeh reports dollar ke liye koi khaas achay prospects nahi kholte. Labor market aur unemployment ke data ab bhi umeedon par pura nahi utarte, jo ke Fed ko kam az kam ek ya do dafa key rate kam karne par majboor karenge. Market ne in "ek ya do dafa" ke rate cuts ko pehle hi price mein shamil kar liya hai, magar ab bhi zyadatar aggressive policy easing ka intezar kar raha hai.
Jumay ko 5-minute time frame par pehle poori flat thi, phir turbulence dekha gaya. U.S. trading session ke dauran, naye traders sirf do sell signals par kaam kar sakte thay jo ke level 1.1132 ke qareeb aaye, kyun ke yeh sabse accurate thay. Magar macroeconomic background ka asar kafi zyada tha, toh 1.1132 ka level surpass ho sakta tha. 1.1091 ke level par ek hi waqt mein chaar trading signals bane, magar sabhi inaccurate aur contradictory thay.

**Monday ko kaise trade karein:**
Hourly time frame par, EUR/USD pair ne apni ascending trend line ke neeche consolidation ki hai, aur pehli dafa bohat arsay baad ek downward trend banane ka mauqa hai jo logical aur tamam analysis factors ke mutabiq hoga. Lekin afsos ke sath, illogical dollar sales jaldi se dobara shuru ho sakti hain downward correction ke baad, kyun ke kisi ko nahi pata ke market kab tak Fed ki monetary policy easing ko price mein shamil karta rahega, jo ke ab tak shuru nahi hui. Market ab tak takreeban tamam aane wale rate cuts ko price mein shamil kar raha hai, aur U.S. ke macroeconomic data zyada tar disappoint hi karte hain.

Monday ko naye traders kisi bhi rukh mein movements expect kar sakte hain. Halanke downtrend ab bhi barqarar hai, lekin U.S. labor market ke haali data zyada tar disappointing thay.

Key levels jo 5M time frame par diqqat mein rakhne chahiye woh hain: 1.0726-1.0733, 1.0797-1.0804, 1.0838-1.0856, 1.0888-1.0896, 1.0940, 1.0971, 1.1011, 1.1048, 1.1091, 1.1132, 1.1191, 1.1275-1.1292. Monday ko Eurozone ya U.S. mein koi ahem reports ya events scheduled nahi hain. Is liye, volatility phir se kam reh sakti hai, aur movements ziada tar flat ho sakti hain.

Filhal, EUR/USD currency pair 1.1270 ke aas-paas trade kar rahi hai. Mojooda trend bearish hai, jo yeh darshata hai ke market dheere-dheere gir rahi hai. Lekin, yeh bearish movement aane wale dino mein ek bara shift bhi dekhne ko mil sakta hai.

EUR/USD ka haal ka behavior yeh dikhata hai ke jab pair ne August mein 1.1270 ka peak dekha, lekin 1.1200 ke upar ki gains ko sustain karne mein mushkil ka samna kiya. 1.1250 ke aas-paas ki resistance aur 1.1000 ke mark tak recent retracement yeh reflect karta hai ke traders ab consolidation aur ehtiyaat ki phase mein hain. Yeh consolidation tab hota hai jab market recent moves digest kar rahi hoti hai aur future volatility ke liye tayar ho rahi hoti hai.

Technical indicators yeh support karte hain ke pair substantial move ke qareeb hai. 4-hour chart pe significant support aur resistance levels ke beech fluctuations dikhai de rahi hain, pair various liquidity zones aur fair value gaps (FVGs) se guzra hai. Key levels, jaise ke 1.1050 ke aas-paas multiple FVGs ka hona yeh darshata hai ke market ab bhi recent developments ko adjust kar rahi hai aur shayad ek zyada pronounced directional move ke liye tayar ho rahi hai.

Technical factors ke ilawa, fundamental aspects bhi EUR/USD ki trajectory ko shape karte hain. Eurozone aur U.S. ke recent developments market sentiment ko influence kar rahe hain. European Central Bank (ECB) ka cautious stance Federal Reserve ke dovish approach ke muqable mein hai. Yeh monetary policy expectations ka farq current market dynamics ko contribute kar raha hai, jahan euro ne accommodating Fed outlook ke beech strength gain ki hai.

Aage chal kar, EUR/USD pair ka behavior upcoming economic data aur geopolitical developments se affect hoga. Significant movement ka potential in factors ke beech interaction par depend karega. Agar pair key resistance 1.1100 ko break kar sakti hai aur is level ke upar gains sustain kar sakti hai, to yeh further upward movement ka signal ho sakta hai, jo 1.1200 ya usse upar levels ko test kar sakta hai. Baraks, agar support levels, khaaskar 1.1000, ke upar nahi tik sakti, to yeh deeper retracement ka indication ho sakta hai, jisme lower levels jaise ke 1.0900 ko revisit kiya ja sakta hai.




Traders ko key levels aur upcoming economic data releases ko closely monitor karna chahiye taake EUR/USD ka direction gauge kiya ja sake. Market ka response in factors par critical hoga yeh determine karne mein ke current bearish trend continue karega ya pair significant breakout ke liye poised hai. Technical analysis aur fundamental developments ke beech interaction next significant movement ko forecast karne mein crucial hoga.

EUR/USD is currently in the spotlight, with the release of German CPI data serving as a preview for tomorrow's overall inflation report for the Eurozone. The recently released German inflation data came in lower than expected, signaling a potential shift in the Euro's trajectory. This surprise in inflation could have significant implications for the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy and, consequently, the EUR/USD pair.[ATTACH=CONFIG]n18486362[/ATTACH]
Lower-than-expected inflation raises the possibility that the ECB may reconsider its approach to interest rates. If inflation across the Eurozone follows the trend set by Germany’s report, the ECB could be under pressure to halt or even reverse its rate hikes. A dovish shift in monetary policy would likely weaken the Euro, as lower interest rates make the currency less attractive to investors seeking higher returns. As a result, the EUR/USD pair could experience a further downside correction, especially if the market begins to price in the expectation of reduced ECB tightening.




From a technical perspective, EUR/USD has already broken below the 23% Fibonacci retracement level, which signals the beginning of a potential corrective phase. The Fibonacci retracement tool is widely used by traders to identify support and resistance levels during a correction within a larger trend. In this case, the break below 23% is a bearish signal, and my next target is the 38% retracement level, which currently sits around 1.1050. This level may act as a critical support zone, and a sustained break below could open the door for further declines in the pair.

Looking ahead, it’s important to keep an eye on upcoming economic data from the United States, as this will further influence EUR/USD’s trajectory. Key data points such as U.S. inflation figures, employment reports, and Federal Reserve statements could either counterbalance or amplify the Euro’s movement. If U.S. economic data comes in stronger than expected, it could provide additional downward pressure on the pair, as the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance might become even more entrenched, strengthening the U.S. dollar.

In summary, the lower-than-expected German CPI data has set the stage for a potential correction in the EUR/USD pair, especially if the Eurozone-wide inflation data mirrors this trend. The break below the 23% Fibonacci retracement level supports this bearish outlook, with the 38% level at 1.1050 serving as a key target. Traders should remain vigilant for upcoming U.S. data, which could further shape the pair’s movement in the near term.

EUR/USD

Humari discussion ka markaz EUR/USD currency pair ke current price behavior ka assessment hai. Aaj ke trading ne meri subah ki predictions ko confirm kiya, jab European session mein sellers ne local lows ko update kiya. U.S. session ke dauran ek chhoti si rally ki koshish ke bawajood, bears ne apna pressure barqarar rakha aur EUR/USD ko 1.10 ke target level ki taraf dhakela. Mojooda halaat ko dekhte hue, yeh reasonable hai ke euro aur U.S. dollar ke darmiyan aur girawat expect ki ja sake.

Price abhi ek short-term descending channel mein move kar rahi hai, jahan har candle bullish momentum ki kamzori ko reflect kar rahi hai. Daily support level 1.1009 pe ek bounce back ho sakta hai jo next daily level 1.1122 tak le ja sake. Lekin agar price 1.1009 ko break kar deti hai, to yeh downward move ko jari rakhti hui broader bullish trend channel ke lower support ko challenge kar sakti hai.




Pair kaafi imkaan hai ke 1.10 tak gir sake, aur agar yeh level hold karta hai, to yeh aur neeche 1.0961 tak ja sakta hai. Yeh girawat recent gains ko khatam kar sakti hai jo Fed ke rate expectations ki wajah se aaye thay. Halaanki ECB bhi rate cuts kar raha hai, lekin girawat kaafi dheemi rahi hai Fed ke sharp movements ke muqable mein. Agar koi upturn dekhna hai, to kal ka U.S. job vacancies report kafi crucial hogi; pehli report 8.18 million thi, aur agar yeh 8 million ya us se neeche aati hai to yeh significant hoga. Bullish outlook ke liye EUR/USD ko 1.1071 ko break karna hoga, jo din ka peak hai. Agar recovery hoti hai to pair 1.11 ya us se upar ja sakti hai.

Main pair ko closely monitor kar raha hoon jab yeh possible bottom ke qareeb aa rahi hai. 1.0951 support strong hai, followed by 1.0931. 1.10 ka level bhi significant hai, lekin 1.0987 ki relevance abhi unclear hai. Price bullish weakness ke signs dikha rahi hai aur local bearish trend ko intraday follow kar rahi hai.

Comprehensive analysis par mabni trading
EUR/USD
Assalam Alaikum! Aaj ke macroeconomic calendar me European markazi bank ki taraf se sud ki sherah par faislah shamil hai. Ummid hai keh Regulator apni kaledi policy ki sherah me 0.25% ki kami karega. Federal Reserve ka sud ki sherah ka faisla agle Budh ko hone wala hai. Americi markazi bank ki janib se apne benchmark sud ki sherah me 0.5 fisad ya us se doguna kami ki tawaqqo hai. Yah aham waqeaat hain jo market ke jazbat par asar dal sakte hain. Lehaza yah fitri hai keh aaj euro/dollar ke jode me kuch pips ki girawat ki ummid karte hue short positions khola jaye, aur fir agle hafte ek numaya rally ki ummid karte hue long positions khola jaye. Takniki nuqtah nazar se, 1.0947 ki satah support ke taur par kam karti hai. Mai tawaqqo karta hun keh euro/dollar ka joda 1.1014 ki maujudah satah se 1.0947 ke nishan par gir jayega. Sath hi, mujhe European currency ko dobara 1.1000 ki satah se ooper band hote dekh kar hairat nahin hogi.

EUR/USD Economic Data:

EUR/USD currency pair ke haal kaafi hath tak U.S. aur Eurozone ki monetary policy ke hawale se badalte hue expectations par mabni hain. Federal Reserve ke dovish approach ki anticipation ne market dynamics ko kaafi influence kiya hai, jahan traders ab interest rate reductions ya rate hikes ke dheeme pace ka andaza laga rahe hain, jo ke U.S. ke mixed economic indicators ki wajah se hai. Halanke inflationary pressures ab bhi barqarar hain, lekin economic activity mein slowdown ke asraat dekhne ke baad euro mazid mazboot hota ja raha hai, kyun ke traders ko lagta hai ke Fed zyada accommodative stance le sakta hai.

Dusri taraf, Eurozone mein economic recovery uneven rahi hai, jahan member countries ke darmiyan growth kaafi farq hai. European Central Bank (ECB) ne apna stance U.S. ke muqable mein zyada cautious rakha hai, jo ke Euro ko support kar raha hai is challenging economic backdrop ke dauran. Market sentiment ECB ki policy direction ke hawale se EUR/USD pair ke liye ek crucial factor rahegi. Global geopolitical uncertainties aur U.S. ke upcoming economic data ka asar Fed ke policy decisions par hoga, jo market ke liye mazeed insights faraham karenge.





Technical View Of EUR/USD:

Technical front pe dekha jaye to EUR/USD pair mein kaafi fluctuations dekhne ko mili hain, jahan price ne significant support aur resistance levels ke beech trading ki hai. May se early June tak ke bearish trend mein, price 1.1100 se gir kar 1.0700 tak aayi. Iss dauran market ne fair value gaps (FVGs) fill kiye jab market balance ki taraf badh rahi thi. July mein recovery hui jahan price wapas 1.1100 tak gayi aur kai FVGs aur daily liquidity zones (DLiq) ko cross karte hue August mein 1.1270 ka peak touch kiya. Lekin 1.1250 ke aas-paas resistance face karna para.

Is waqt, EUR/USD pair 1.1085 ke qareeb consolidate kar rahi hai, ek period of heightened volatility ke baad. Price abhi tak 34-day exponential moving average (EMA) ke upar hai, jo ek bullish trend ko darshata hai. Lekin MACD signal line se pull back kar chuka hai, jo uptrend mein pause ya reversal ka ishara de raha hai. Key support levels mein 1.1000 ka mark shamil hai, jab ke 50-day aur 200-day moving averages bhi support faraham karenge. Resistance level 1.1100 par ab bhi critical hai, jo future price movements ka taayun karega.

EUR/USD ne apni upward movement ko 1.1100 ke upar extend kiya hai, jabke US labor demand mein slow down ke asaar ne US Dollar par dabao dala hai. Sarmaiya kaar August ke US NFP ka intezaar kar rahe hain, ye jaan'ne ke liye ke kya July ka report sirf ek temporary rukawat thi ya ek bara masla shuru ho gaya hai. ECB se umeed hai ke wo is saal do dafa aur interest rates mein kami karega. EUR/USD ne apni winning streak ko teesray consecutive trading session tak barqarar rakha hai, aur Friday ko 1.1120 ke qareebi aik naye weekly high par trade kar raha hai. Is currency pair ki mazbooti US Dollar ki kamzori ki wajah se hai. US Dollar Index (DXY), jo ke Greenback ki qeemat ko 6 bari currencies ke muqable mein track karta hai, 101.00 ke important support level ke neeche gir gaya hai.

US Dollar ki demand mein kami aane ki wajah July ke liye US JOLTS Job Openings data aur August ke liye ADP Employment data hai, jo is hafte ke aghaz mein release hue thay. In data ne labor market ki deteriorating conditions ka khauf aur gehra kar diya hai. Naye job vacancies 7.67 million aur private sector mein payrolls ka izafa sirf 99K raha, jo pichlay teen aur aadha saal ka sab se kam tha.

US ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data August ke liye behtar aaya, magar is se US Dollar ko koi khaas support nahi mila.

Labor demand ke slow hone ke asaar ne market expectations ko barhaya ke Federal Reserve (Fed) shayad interest rates ko tezi se kam karna shuru kare. CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq, Fed ke interest rates mein 50 basis points (bps) ki kami ka chance 34% se barh kar 41% ho gaya hai.

Interest rate path ke hawale se zyada maloomat ke liye, sarmaiya kaar August ke US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data ka intezaar kar rahe hain, jo 12:30 GMT par publish hoga. Expectation hai ke US employers 160K logon ko hire karenge, jo ke July ke 114K se zyada hai. Unemployment Rate bhi 4.3% se gir kar 4.2% hone ka andaza lagaya gaya hai.

Sarmaiya kaar US Average Hourly Earnings data par bhi tawajju denge, jo ke wage growth ka ek ahem mayar hai aur consumer spending ko mutasir karta hai. Umeed hai ke earnings July ke 3.6% se barh kar 3.7% ho gayi hain, aur monthly wage growth bhi 0.2% se barh kar 0.3% hone ka andaza hai.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD ne 1.1100 ke upar apne gains ko qaim rakha

EUR/USD ne apne aap ko 1.1100 ke qareebi round-level figure ke upar mazbooti se barqarar rakha hai. Short-term mein currency pair ka outlook mazboot hai, jabke ye 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke qareeb, 1.1055 par strong footing bana raha hai.

Lambi muddat ka outlook bhi bullish hai, jabke 50-day aur 200-day EMAs 1.0970 aur 1.0865 ke qareeb hain, aur dono lines upward slope par hain. Shared currency pair daily time frame mein Rising Channel breakout ko qaim rakhta hai.

14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) 60.00 ke neeche gir gaya hai, jabke 75.00 ke qareeb overbought tha.

Upside mein, recent high 1.1200 aur July 2023 ka high 1.1275 Euro bulls ka agla target ho sakta hai. Niche ki taraf, downside ko psychological support 1.1000 ke aas paas cushion

EUR/USD
Assalam Alaikum! Aalmi satah par, market ki suratehal badastur barqarar hai. Kami ka rujhan ab bhi barqarar hai. Kal, euro/dollar ki jodi nayi muqami nichli satah par aur yahan tak keh 1.10 ke nishan tak pahunch gayi, halankeh yah us satah se niche girne me nakam raha. Yah koi hairani ki bat nahin thi kiyunkeh Americi dollar ko Americi consumer prices ke aidad o shumar se support hasil hua. Inflation ke aidad o shumar taqriban peshangoiyon ke mutabiq the, jisne 0.5 fisad ki kami ki ummidon ko kam kar diya. Aaj market ki harkiyat bhi greenback par munhasar hongi kiyunkeh Jumerat ka macroeconomic calendar aham khabron ki release se bhara hua hai. Iske alawa, European Central Bank apne sud ki sharah ke faisle ka ailan karega. Is dauran, mai ab bhi maujudah satah se short positions kholne par gaur kar raha hun. Sath hi, mai tawaqqo karta hun keh euro/dollar ka joda 1.0990 ke nishan se niche gir jayega. Is satah par ya 1.10 par false breakout ki surat me, mai long positions kholne ki koshish karunga.

EUR/USD pair ne haftay ke aakhir mein apne upar ki movement mein rukawat dekhi, aur Wednesday ko jo pehle ka high tha, us tak nahi pohanch paayi. Halankeh recent mein US dollar (USD) mein girawat aayi hai, spot price ab bhi 1.1125 ke upar hai. Euro ko support dene wala ek ahem factor US labor market ki kamzori hai. Wednesday ko release hui data ne bataya ke US employment growth March mein pehle ke andazay se kafi kam rahi. Iske ilawa, unemployed logon ki tadaad mein izafa bhi market ko thanda kar raha hai, jo ek economic slowdown ke khauf ko barha raha hai. Yeh Federal Reserve (Fed) ke September mein interest rate cut ke mumkin hone ki ummeed ko barha raha hai, jo euro ko support de raha hai. Halankeh kamzor US dollar EUR/USD ko kuch support de raha hai, mixed Eurozone Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data ne bullish sentiment ko thanda kiya hai. Preliminary Eurozone PMI expectations se neeche aayi, lekin 50 ke upar rahi, jo expansion ko darshata hai. Lekin, Germany, jo eurozone ka sabse bara economy hai, ne do mahine se contraction dekha hai. Iske ilawa, eurozone mein slow wage growth bhi EUR/USD ki appreciation ko limit kar sakti hai. European Central Bank (ECB) ki July policy meeting ne kuch bearish forces ko darshaya, aur bulls ka resistance nahi dikhayi de raha, isliye short positions ko faida mand mana ja raha hai. Maine socha ke profits ko sabse nazdeek 1.11385 support level par roknay ka faida hai, future gains ko khatre mein daalne ke bajaye. Level 1.11888 stop loss level ke thoda upar hoga. Sellers ka momentum ab bhi barh raha hai, aur level 1.11385 toot gaya hai, jo ke bullish situation ko indicate karta hai. Filhal, sab kuch EUR/USD ke liye growth ki taraf ishara kar raha hai mere nazariye se. Ek baar phir, rule apply hota hai: rumors par buy karo, facts par sell karo. Rate September mein kam hoga, mujhe ismein koi shak nahi hai, sawal yeh hai ke kitna kam hoga? Shayad 25 points. Long-term inflation forecasts bhi 2% tak girne ka saboot deti hain. Pichle hafte revised NFP statistics bhi aayi, jisme 800K jobs ki reduction hui jo published data ke saath comparison mein kafi negative hai. Abhi yeh gradually correction ke nateeje mein gir rahe hain. Mera belief hai ke hum jaldi naye growth phase mein enter karenge aur 12th figure tak pohochne ki umeed hai. Main 1.1230 ke aas-paas selling try karne ke liye tayar rahunga. EUR/USD market position apni upward trend ko maintain kar rahi hai, khas kar jab four-hour aur daily time frames ko dekha jaye. Main weekly chart ko dekhunga taake ascending channel ke lower boundary ko identify kiya ja sake, jo shayad 1.0999 ke support level ke aas-paas ho sakta hai, jahan ek notable bearish correction ho sakta hai, aur jo log upward movement ko capitalize karna chahte hain unke liye entry points offer kar sakti hai. Pair aggressive upward trend ko bina kisi significant correction ke

D1 chart Euro ne Tuesday ko US dollar ke muqable mein mazid taqat hasil ki, jo ke US dollar ki purchasing pressure mein kami ki wajah se hua. Chaahe ek chhoti si pullback hui ho, magar nayi market risk appetite ne euro ko pichle kuch hafton ke aala level tak pohncha diya. Lekin, euro 1.1200 level ke neeche hi raha, jahan US dollar bulls ki taraf se resistance ka samna tha. Federal Reserve ke Chairman Jerome Powell ki pichle Jumme ko Jackson Hole Economic Symposium mein shanasaai ne September mein interest rate cut ke intezaar ko mazid barha diya, jis se euro ki attraction mein izafa hua. Jab ke euro front par zyada economic events nahi the, traders ne Federal Reserve ke Governor Christopher Waller ke letters aur European Union ke euro group meeting par zyada tawajju di. US GDP ke liye doosri quarter mein 2.8% ki annual basis par wohi pehle wali rate rehne ki umeed thi. Magar is hafte ka primary focus July ke Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation data par tha. Market ke participants eagerly umeed lagaaye baithe the ke inflation data expectations se kam aayega, jo ke rate cut ki umeed ko barha sakta hai. Dosri taraf, agar data expectations se zyada hota hai, toh market mein dobara se volatility aa sakti hai.

EUR/USD pair ki price ab bhi simple moving average zone of period 100 ke upar stable chal rahi hai jo ke ek Uptrend market situation ko darsha rahi hai. Pichle hafte market ke halaat upward trend ke saath the jo ke pichle mahine ke bullish trend ke mutabiq the. Mahine ke shuruat mein price increase ne candlestick ko 1.1202 ke position tak pohcha diya. Is mahine ka price increase kaafi zyada lagta hai, lekin trading session ke last night mein ye barhawa continue nahi ho saka kyun ke market mein correction ho rahi thi. Aaj subah tak price uptrend zone mein move karne ki koshish kar raha tha. Tuesday raat ko price upar jaane ki koshish kar raha tha magar weekly price opening ko cross nahi kar saka. Magar, raat ke increase ke saath price ke mazeed ooper jaane ki umeed aur chance barh jata hai kyun ke correction ka momentum, jo aam tor par bullish trend ko lamba karta hai, uss se madad milti hai. Aaj tak price ki journey monthly opening price zone se door chal rahi hai jo ke 1.0824 ke position par thi. Mere khayal mein, ho sakta hai ke candlestick ab bhi upar move karna chahti hai jaise pichle hafte ka market trend tha. EUR/USD pair mein market situation ab active hoti nazar aa rahi hai, halan ke buyers ki efforts price ko barhane ke liye abhi tak itni strong nahi hain. Ho sakta hai ke market jab American session mein aayega toh koi mukhtalif situation samne aaye. Is hafte ke trading mein achi opportunities dhoondhne ke liye yeh trading reference diya jaa raha hai ke jab bullish direction ka continuation mazid strong hota nazar aaye, toh market dobara se uptrend mein aa sakta hai. Uptrend ka confirmation tab dekhne ko milta hai jab candlestick dobara se barh kar price zone 1.1201 ke upar chalne lagti hai. Mere khayal mein is condition mein Buy position dhoondhna

1.1153 level par focus kiya tha aur market mein entry decisions is par banaane ka plan kiya tha. Ab hum 5-minute chart dekhtay hain aur dekhte hain kya hua. Girawat hui, lekin is level par na to koi test hua aur na hi false breakout formation hui. Low volatility ki wajah se koi suitable entry points nahi milay. Phir bhi, doosray half of the day ke liye technical picture ko thora revise kiya EUR/USD mein Long Positions kholne ke liye Germany ka GDP figures economists ki forecasts ke mutabiq aaye, aur halaan ke report disappointing thi, lekin euro par sirf thoda pressure pada, kyun ke pehlay se hi data ne GDP contraction ko indicate kar diya tha second quarter mein. Doosray half of the day mein ziada activity ki umeed hai, jab ke US consumer confidence, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, aur 20 barae US shehron mein home price index ke data aa rahe hain. Agar consumer confidence mein kami hoti hai, to euro ko support milne ke chances hain, lekin agar yeh indicator barhta hai, jo ke mojooda surat-e-haal mein mumkin hai, to EUR/USD aur neeche ja sakta hai, jisko main fayda uthane ke liye dekh raha hoon. Agar 1.1153 support level par girawat ke baad false breakout hota hai, to yeh long positions kholne ke liye ek acha moka hoga, jisme euro ka rise aur bullish trend ka mazid mazbooti ka aim hoga, aur 1.1199 ka monthly high wapas aayega. Is range ka breakout aur upward retest pair ko barhata hua 1.1237 ka test karne ka moka dega. Aakhri target 1.1274 hoga, jahan main profits le lunga. Agar EUR/USD second half of the day mein 1.1153 ke aas paas significant activity ke baghair girta hai, to sellers ke paas ek bara correction ka moka hoga. Is surat mein, main sirf 1.1130 ke aglay support level par false breakout ke baad entry karunga. Mazeed, main 1.1107 se rebound par long positions kholne ka plan kar raha hoon, 30-35 points ki upward correction ka target rakhte hue EUR/USD mein Short Positions kholne ke liye Sellers ne bhi wait-and-see approac apnay hai, aur Germany ke data par sirf thoda react kiya hai. Agar euro second half of the day mein barhta hai (aur yaad rahe, hum bullish trend mein hain), to mujhe umeed hai ke sellers sirf 1.1199 ke resistance ke aas paas nazar aayenge, jo aaj tak hum nahi pohanchay hain. Is level par false breakout short positions kholne ka moka dega, jisme pair ko 1.1153 support tak reduce karne ka target hoga

EUR/USD currency pair ke price action analysis par baat karenge. Main mid-to-long term mein US dollar ke khasa kamzor hone ki umeed karta hoon; lekin mujhe lagta hai ke woh girne se pehle aik aakhri surge kar sakta hai. Kya aapne yeh socha hai ke agar price 1.1025 pe release ki jaye, toh aik unstoppable bear run shuru ho sakta hai? Hafte ke pehle hissa mein, ECB meeting ke waja se euro par pressure aane ke imkaan hain, utasalar jab ke interest rate cut abhi tak expect ki ja rahi hai, magar price ne abhi response nahi diya. Bohat kuch US inflation data par bhi munhasir hoga. Shayad aap fundamentals par tawajjo na dete ho, lekin yeh analysis aglay 1.4 haftay mein, September 17 se shuru, bohat ahm hoga. Hamesha soch samajh kar trade karein, lekin Fed aur ECB policies mein tabdeeliyan bhi barabar zaroori hain. Mujhe umeed hai ke is pair ki price gir kar kam az kam mere target 1.0859 tak pohanchay gi. Mid-term outlook ko dekhte hue abhi khareedna sirf us surat mein moazoon lagta hai, jab potential 8th figure ke aas paas ho. Yeh baat bilkul theek hai ke intraday kuch bhi ho sakta hai. Agar aap European market trends se hum aahang hain, toh sham ka range 1.1069-1.1089 thoda raahnuma sabit ho sakta hai. Yeh range shayad itni oonchi na ho, lekin news ke baad isko zaroor madde nazar rakhna chahiye. Is range ke ooper buying theek hai; Neechay selling behtar rahegi. EUR/USD pair ke liye mujhe bhi lagta hai ke selling zaida moazoon hai, kyun ke technical indicators H1 aur H4 charts par bearish hain, aur Friday se baqi rehne wali movement ko bhi zahir kar rahe hain. Monday ko koi solid foundation nahi hai jo price ko achanak upar karay, toh technical analysis dominate kar sakti hai. Opening par, main 1.0165 ke aas paas level ko dekh raha hoon, aur short-term target 1.1024 feasible lag raha hai, jo k jaldi poora ho sakta hai. Yeh haqeeqat mein mumkin hai ke hum technically level 10 ke qareeb pohanch jaayein

EUR/USD pair mein aik halka sa decline dekhne ko mila Wednesday ko, jisme 0.04% ka nuksan hua US inflation report ke release ke baad. August mein core consumer price index (CPI) mein koi tabdeeli nahi hui, jo is baat ki taraf ishara karti hai ke Federal Reserve (Fed) ke interest rate hike cycle mein ek potential pause aa sakta hai. EUR/USD pair narrow range mein trade kar rahi thi, jisme daily high 1.1055 aur daily low 1.1001 tha. European Central Bank (ECB) ki aanewali monetary policy decision ne pair ki movement ko influence kiya, jisme market participants ne apni expectations adjust ki for the extent of the Fed's rate cut. Money market futures traders ne apni 50 basis point rate cut ke bets ko reduce kiya, aur 25 basis point cut ki taraf zyada probability shift hui.

Eurozone economic calendar mein ECB decision aur German inflation data ka intezar hai, jo expected hai ke year-on-year 1.9% ka rise dikhaye ga. Magar PMI data ye batata hai ke economy slow ho rahi hai, jo ECB ke 25 basis points ka interest rate cut karne ke decision ko support karta hai. Iske bawajood, ECB ke kuch hawks expect kiye ja rahe hain ke woh is cut ko resist karein, kyunki kuch inflationary factors ab tak persistent hain. Reuters ki reports yeh suggest karti hain ke September ke baad ECB ki monetary policy decisions aur bhi complex ho sakti hain.

US side se, economic calendar mein latest jobless claims report aur producer price index (PPI) ka release hoga.

**Technical Analysis:**
EUR/USD ka neutral bias hai lekin ab tak 1.1000 level se upar hai. Relative Strength Index (RSI) downside ki taraf turn ho chuka hai, jo potential weakness ka ishara karta hai. Agar EUR/USD mein recovery hoti hai September 11 peak se, toh yeh 1.1100 level tak ja sakti hai. Magar agar pair 1.1000 se neeche break karta hai, toh 50-day moving average (DMA) 1.0967 par aur July 17 swing high 1.0948 par support provide kar sakte hain. Current situation next breakout ke liye positive outlook deti hai around 1.1490 physiology mark ke aas paas.EUR/USD pair mein aik halka sa decline dekhne ko mila Wednesday ko, jisme 0.04% ka nuksan hua US inflation report ke release ke baad. August mein core consumer price index (CPI) mein koi tabdeeli nahi hui, jo is baat ki taraf ishara karti hai ke Federal Reserve (Fed) ke interest rate hike cycle mein ek potential pause aa sakta hai. EUR/USD pair narrow range mein trade kar rahi thi, jisme daily high 1.1055 aur daily low 1.1001 tha. European Central Bank (ECB) ki aanewali monetary policy decision ne pair ki movement ko influence kiya, jisme market participants ne apni expectations adjust ki for the extent of the Fed's rate cut. Money market futures traders ne apni 50 basis point rate cut ke bets ko reduce kiya, aur 25 basis point cut ki taraf zyada probability shift hui.
Eurozone economic calendar mein ECB decision aur German inflation data ka intezar hai, jo expected hai ke year-on-year 1.9% ka rise dikhaye ga. Magar PMI data ye batata hai ke economy slow ho rahi hai, jo ECB ke 25 basis points ka interest rate cut karne ke decision ko support karta hai. Iske bawajood, ECB ke kuch hawks expect kiye ja rahe hain ke woh is cut ko resist karein, kyunki kuch inflationary factors ab tak persistent hain. Reuters ki reports yeh suggest karti hain ke September ke baad ECB ki monetary policy decisions aur bhi complex ho sakti hain.

US side se, economic calendar mein latest jobless claims report aur producer price index (PPI) ka release hoga.


**Technical Analysis:**
EUR/USD ka neutral bias hai lekin ab tak 1.1000 level se upar hai. Relative Strength Index (RSI) downside ki taraf turn ho chuka hai, jo potential weakness ka ishara karta hai. Agar EUR/USD mein recovery hoti hai September 11 peak se, toh yeh 1.1100 level tak ja sakti hai. Magar agar pair 1.1000 se neeche break karta hai, toh 50-day moving average (DMA) 1.0967 par aur July 17 swing high 1.0948 par support provide kar sakte hain. Current situation next breakout ke liye positive outlook deti hai around 1.1490 physiology mark ke aas paas.

**EUR/USD**
Sab ko Good Thursday!

Agar hum kal ke natayej ko dekhein, toh yeh nazar aata hai ke euro/dollar currency pair mein bears ne aik baar phir four-hour local minimum update kiya aur 1.1002 ke level tak pohanch gaye, magar mere take profit se bas aik millimeter door ruk gaye, jo ke sales aur pending buy orders ke liye tha.

Mukhtasir mein, bears ne meri bait ko chhuwana zarur, lekin orders abhi tak trigger nahi hue, toh abhi tak koi khaas achievement nahi hai.

Halaankeh mein ab bhi yeh samajhta hoon ke EUR/USD ka downward movement Wednesday tak jari rehne ke imkaanaat hain, isliye mein apni trading mein kuch adjustment kar sakta hoon aur upar zikar kiye gaye orders ko southern support ke next level 1.0975 ke kareeb shift karne ka soch raha hoon.

Mujhe lagta hai ke EUR/USD ka price is waqt ke upward attempt mein 1.1035 ke resistance se upar jaane ke imkaanaat kam hain, jahan "Zigzag" indicator aik aur local maximum dikhaye ga, jo ke pehle ke value se neeche ho ga aur TMA indicator bands ke darmiyani hadd ke aas-paas ho ga, iske baad price neeche move karegi, jaise ke mere screen par dikhaya gaya hai.

Achha, kam az kam mein yeh umeed karta hoon ke yeh decline week ke aakhri tak aur shayad agle week ke shuruat tak jari rahe ga, jab tak US Federal Reserve ka September ka meeting ka faisla nahi aa jata.
neutral bias hai lekin ab tak 1.1000 level se upar hai. Relative Strength Index (RSI) downside ki taraf turn ho chuka hai, jo potential weakness ka ishara karta hai. Agar EUR/USD mein recovery hoti hai September 11 peak se, toh yeh 1.1100 level tak ja sakti hai. Magar agar pair 1.1000 se neeche break karta hai, toh 50-day moving average (DMA) 1.0967 par aur July 17 swing high 1.0948 par support provide kar sakte hain. Current situation next breakout ke liye positive outlook deti hai around 1.1490 physiol
**Attachment:** Screenshot