Eurusd forum

EUR/USD Market Analysis aur Upcoming Considerations

Market Observations:

Mere hisab se, pehle 1.0445 ke neeche drop hoga phir 1.1278 par rise hoga. Lekin pair ne 1.1278 ko cross kar liya hai 1.0445 ko test karte hue. Daily chart par, jo wedge lag raha tha woh triangle nikla hai, potentially ABC structure ko indicate karta hai triangle wave B mein aur extension wave C mein 1.1278 ke upar.

Current Price Action:

Pair ko minor correction ho raha hai 25 pips ka, jo lead kar sakta hai:

Simple correction 1.11-1.1120 par, phir uptrend ki resumption.

Complex correction 1.1050-1.1070 par, phir further upside potential.

Significant drop 1.0445 par probability ab bahut kam hai, less than 10%, especially current environment mein dollar ko widely sold kiya ja raha hai.

Powell’s Speech ka Impact:

Fed Chair Jerome Powell ki speech Friday ko bahut important hogi. Unke interest rates ke liye comments critical honge:

Agar Powell pause ya slower pace rate cuts ko suggest karta hai, yeh aggressive expectations ko temper kar sakta hai aur market sentiment ko affect kar sakta hai.

Agar woh dovish signals ko indicate karta hai, yeh EUR/USD ko further drive kar sakta hai, potentially 1.1278 ke upar push kar sakta hai.

Trading Strategy:

Currently, buying unattractive lag raha hai clear pullback ke bina. Strong sell signals bhi nahi hain. Market ki direction Powell ki remarks par depend karti hai, jo clarify karegi ki EUR/USD 1.1279 ya 1.18 ke levels ko test karegi.

Summary:

EUR/USD ne 1.1278 ko cross kar liya hai, minor corrections possibly further gains ko lead kar sakti hai. Powell ki upcoming speech pair ki next move ko determine karegi. Currently, buy ya sell ke liye strong inclination nahi hai further clarity economic developments se

EUR/USD Market Analysis aur Upcoming Considerations

Market Observations:

Mere hisab se, pehle 1.0445 ke neeche drop hoga phir 1.1278 par rise hoga. Lekin pair ne 1.1278 ko cross kar liya hai 1.0445 ko test karte hue. Daily chart par, jo wedge lag raha tha woh triangle nikla hai, potentially ABC structure ko indicate karta hai triangle wave B mein aur extension wave C mein 1.1278 ke upar.

Current Price Action:

Pair ko minor correction ho raha hai 25 pips ka, jo lead kar sakta hai:

Simple correction 1.11-1.1120 par, phir uptrend ki resumption.

Complex correction 1.1050-1.1070 par, phir further upside potential.

Significant drop 1.0445 par probability ab bahut kam hai, less than 10%, especially current environment mein dollar ko widely sold kiya ja raha hai.

Powell’s Speech ka Impact:

Fed Chair Jerome Powell ki speech Friday ko bahut important hogi. Unke interest rates ke liye comments critical honge:

Agar Powell pause ya slower pace rate cuts ko suggest karta hai, yeh aggressive expectations ko temper kar sakta hai aur market sentiment ko affect kar sakta hai.

Agar woh dovish signals ko indicate karta hai, yeh EUR/USD ko further drive kar sakta hai, potentially 1.1278 ke upar push kar sakta hai.

Trading Strategy:

Currently, buying unattractive lag raha hai clear pullback ke bina. Strong sell signals bhi nahi hain. Market ki direction Powell ki remarks par depend karti hai, jo clarify karegi ki EUR/USD 1.1279 ya 1.18 ke levels ko test karegi.





Summary:

EUR/USD ne 1.1278 ko cross kar liya hai, minor corrections possibly further gains ko lead kar sakti hai. Powell ki upcoming speech pair ki next move ko determine karegi. Currently, buy ya sell ke liye strong inclination nahi hai further clarity economic developments se

EUR/USD currency pair, forex market mein sabse zyada trade kiya jata hai, current mein 1.11448 par position mein hai. Trend notably bearish hai, lekin market slow pace mein move kar raha hai, consolidation ya uncertainty ka period dikha raha hai. Lekin, various factors ke base par, strong belief hai ki EUR/USD mein significant movement aane wale dinon mein hoga.

Current Market Overview

EUR/USD, "fiber" ke naam se trading circles mein jana jata hai, Eurozone aur United States ke economic health ka key indicator hai. Abhi, currency pair bearish trend mein hai. Yeh downward trajectory often economic data releases, geopolitical tensions, ya central bank policies ke combination ke result mein hota hai. Recent trend suggest karta hai ki Euro U.S. Dollar ke against ground khote ja raha hai, lekin market ka slow pace potential buildup of momentum ko hint karta hai.

Factors Influencing the EUR/USD

Kuch factors current bearish trend mein contribute kar sakte hain:

1. *Economic Data*: Recent economic reports Eurozone se weaker-than-expected growth, inflation, ya employment figures dikha sakte hain, Euro mein confidence decrease karne ke liye. U.S. economy resilience dikha sakti hai, Dollar ko further strengthen karne ke liye.

2. *Monetary Policy*: European Central Bank (ECB) aur Federal Reserve (Fed) EUR/USD ke movement mein crucial roles play karte hain. Agar ECB Fed ke compared dovish lagta hai, yeh Euro ko weaker kar sakta hai.

3. *Geopolitical Tensions*: Eurozone ko affect karne wale geopolitical issues, conflicts ya political instability, bhi Euro ko weaker kar sakte hain. Investors safe-haven assets jaise U.S. Dollar seek karte hain uncertainty ke times mein, bearish trend mein contribute karte hain.

4. *Market Sentiment*: Market participants ka overall sentiment Euro aur Dollar ke towards bhi significant role play karta hai. Agar traders believe Euro overvalued hai ya U.S. economy outperform karegi, yeh Euros ko Dollars ke against sell karne ke liye more likely honge, EUR/USD ko lower push karte hain.





Potential for a Big Movement

Current bearish trend aur market ka slow pace ke bawajood, big movement ke possibility hai aane wale dinon mein. Yeh potential kuch factors ke base par attributed kiya ja sakta hai:

1. *Technical Indicators*: Technical charts analyze karne par, key support aur resistance levels approaching dikha sakte hain. Pair significant support level ke near ho sakta hai. Agar yeh support break hota hai, yeh sharp downward move ko trigger kar sakta hai traders long positions se exit karne ke liye. Conversely, agar support hold karta hai, yeh strong rebound ko lead kar sakta hai, swift move upside mein.

2. *Upcoming Economic Events*: Major economic events ya data releases, jaise Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) U.S. mein ya ECB interest rate decision, catalysts ke liye big movement ko act kar sakte hain. Yeh events often increased volatility ko lead karte hain traders news ke react karne ke liye, sharp price movements ko cause karte hain

Comprehensive analysis par mabni trading
EUR/USD
Assalam Alaikum! Aaj ke macroeconomic calendar me European markazi bank ki taraf se sud ki sherah par faislah shamil hai. Ummid hai keh Regulator apni kaledi policy ki sherah me 0.25% ki kami karega. Federal Reserve ka sud ki sherah ka faisla agle Budh ko hone wala hai. Americi markazi bank ki janib se apne benchmark sud ki sherah me 0.5 fisad ya us se doguna kami ki tawaqqo hai. Yah aham waqeaat hain jo market ke jazbat par asar dal sakte hain. Lehaza yah fitri hai keh aaj euro/dollar ke jode me kuch pips ki girawat ki ummid karte hue short positions khola jaye, aur fir agle hafte ek numaya rally ki ummid karte hue long positions khola jaye. Takniki nuqtah nazar se, 1.0947 ki satah support ke taur par kam karti hai. Mai tawaqqo karta hun keh euro/dollar ka joda 1.1014 ki maujudah satah se 1.0947 ke nishan par gir jayega. Sath hi, mujhe European currency ko dobara 1.1000 ki satah se ooper band hote dekh kar hairat nahin hogi.

EUR/USD Market Analysis aur Upcoming Considerations

Market Observations:

Mere hisab se, pehle 1.0445 ke neeche drop hoga phir 1.1278 par rise hoga. Lekin pair ne 1.1278 ko cross kar liya hai 1.0445 ko test karte hue. Daily chart par, jo wedge lag raha tha woh triangle nikla hai, potentially ABC structure ko indicate karta hai triangle wave B mein aur extension wave C mein 1.1278 ke upar.

Current Price Action:

Pair ko minor correction ho raha hai 25 pips ka, jo lead kar sakta hai:

Simple correction 1.11-1.1120 par, phir uptrend ki resumption.

Complex correction 1.1050-1.1070 par, phir further upside potential.

Significant drop 1.0445 par probability ab bahut kam hai, less than 10%, especially current environment mein dollar ko widely sold kiya ja raha hai.

Powell’s Speech ka Impact:

Fed Chair Jerome Powell ki speech Friday ko bahut important hogi. Unke interest rates ke liye comments critical honge:

Agar Powell pause ya slower pace rate cuts ko suggest karta hai, yeh aggressive expectations ko temper kar sakta hai aur market sentiment ko affect kar sakta hai.

Agar woh dovish signals ko indicate karta hai, yeh EUR/USD ko further drive kar sakta hai, potentially 1.1278 ke upar push kar sakta hai.

Trading Strategy:

Currently, buying unattractive lag raha hai clear pullback ke bina. Strong sell signals bhi nahi hain. Market ki direction Powell ki remarks par depend karti hai, jo clarify karegi ki EUR/USD 1.1279 ya 1.18 ke levels ko test karegi.

Summary:

EUR/USD ne 1.1278 ko cross kar liya hai, minor corrections possibly further gains ko lead kar sakti hai. Powell ki upcoming speech pair ki next move ko determine karegi. Currently, buy ya sell ke liye strong inclination nahi hai further clarity economic developments se

buyers ki strength ko dikhata hai jo market par dominate kar rahe hain. Is case mein, H1 channel M15 se zyada significance rakhta hai. Agar channel ki lower boundary 1.09095 tak pohanchi, to yeh ek strong buyer ka izhar ho sakta hai. Filhal, M15 par linear regression ek correction suggest karta hai, jiske baad bulls zyada active ho sakte hain. Agar market 1.09095 ke level par hold karta hai, to yeh ek buying opportunity ho sakti hai, jo ek accha idea ho sakta hai. Target 1.09425 ka hoga. Is target ko achieve karne ke baad, agar koi active seller 1.09425 ke level par appear hota hai to market ka direction bearish ho sakta hai. Agar price 1.09095 ke neeche break kar jata hai, to yeh selling ka signal ho sakta hai, kyunki yeh trend reversal ka indication de sakta hai.
Ab hum EUR/USD currency pair ke price fluctuations ka tajziya karenge. Friday ko, humne EUR/USD pair ko H1 time frame par trade kiya tha planned sideways movement ke andar, jo ke 9th din se qaim hai. Jaise expect kiya gaya tha, humne weekend se pehle is sideways pattern se exit nahi kiya, aur Monday ko yeh range mein hi continue karega. Lekin, Tuesday aur Wednesday tak, jab economic calendar active ho jayega, tab hum consolidation se break dekh sakte hain. Critical sawal yeh hai ke market kis direction mein move karega, lekin breakout direction ko predict karna mushkil hai kyunki theoretically yeh dono taraf ho sakta hai. Attached chart potential targets ko illustrate karta hai is movement ke liye. Yeh predict karna challenging hai ke EUR/USD pair ka upcoming trading week mein kis taraf break hoga, especially given ke resistance ka narrow range, jo ke 1.0966 aur 1.0947 ke beech identify kiya gaya hai, iski recent decline ke darmiyan.

Lekin, agar price is range ke upar stabilize ho jati hai, to bulls ko ek fresh local maximum ki taraf drive kar sakti hai. Main estimate karta hoon ke dono scenarios ke liye 50% chance hai, halaan ke main thoda bullish outcome ki taraf lean karta hoon. Price mein lower boundary of the triangle, jo ke minimum level 1.0449 ke ird gird hai, tak retreat karne ka potential hai. Iske bawajood, upside breakout zyada feasible lag raha hai. Price current upper boundary ko break karne ya neeche move karne ki koshish kar sakti hai, halaan ke ab tak lower boundary tak nahi pohnchi. Isliye, main maximum ko update karne ki possibility 1.1009 tak rule out nahi kar sakta. US Dollar Index ko dekhte hue, weakening ke signs zahir hain

1.1153 level par focus kiya tha aur market mein entry decisions is par banaane ka plan kiya tha. Ab hum 5-minute chart dekhtay hain aur dekhte hain kya hua. Girawat hui, lekin is level par na to koi test hua aur na hi false breakout formation hui. Low volatility ki wajah se koi suitable entry points nahi milay. Phir bhi, doosray half of the day ke liye technical picture ko thora revise kiya EUR/USD mein Long Positions kholne ke liye Germany ka GDP figures economists ki forecasts ke mutabiq aaye, aur halaan ke report disappointing thi, lekin euro par sirf thoda pressure pada, kyun ke pehlay se hi data ne GDP contraction ko indicate kar diya tha second quarter mein. Doosray half of the day mein ziada activity ki umeed hai, jab ke US consumer confidence, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, aur 20 barae US shehron mein home price index ke data aa rahe hain. Agar consumer confidence mein kami hoti hai, to euro ko support milne ke chances hain, lekin agar yeh indicator barhta hai, jo ke mojooda surat-e-haal mein mumkin hai, to EUR/USD aur neeche ja sakta hai, jisko main fayda uthane ke liye dekh raha hoon. Agar 1.1153 support level par girawat ke baad false breakout hota hai, to yeh long positions kholne ke liye ek acha moka hoga, jisme euro ka rise aur bullish trend ka mazid mazbooti ka aim hoga, aur 1.1199 ka monthly high wapas aayega. Is range ka breakout aur upward retest pair ko barhata hua 1.1237 ka test karne ka moka dega. Aakhri target 1.1274 hoga, jahan main profits le lunga. Agar EUR/USD second half of the day mein 1.1153 ke aas paas significant activity ke baghair girta hai, to sellers ke paas ek bara correction ka moka hoga. Is surat mein, main sirf 1.1130 ke aglay support level par false breakout ke baad entry karunga. Mazeed, main 1.1107 se rebound par long positions kholne ka plan kar raha hoon, 30-35 points ki upward correction ka target rakhte hue EUR/USD mein Short Positions kholne ke liye Sellers ne bhi wait-and-see approac apnay hai, aur Germany ke data par sirf thoda react kiya hai. Agar euro second half of the day mein barhta hai (aur yaad rahe, hum bullish trend mein hain), to mujhe umeed hai ke sellers sirf 1.1199 ke resistance ke aas paas nazar aayenge, jo aaj tak hum nahi pohanchay hain. Is level par false breakout short positions kholne ka moka dega, jisme pair ko 1.1153 support tak reduce karne ka target hoga, jahan moving averages hain jo bulls ke haq mein hain. Is range ka breakout aur consolidation neeche aur downward retest mazeed selling ka moka dega, jisme movement 1.1130 tak hogi, jahan mujhe bulls se ziada active response ki umeed hai. Aakhri target 1.1107 hoga, jahan main profits le lunga. Agar EUR/USD weak US economic data ke bawajood barhta hai aur 1.1199 par koi bears nahi miltay, jo ke mumkin nahi hai, to buyers wapas initiative le lenge, jisme monthly high ko renew karne aur pair ko mazeed barhane ka moka hoga. Is surat mein, main selling ko aglay resistance 1.1237 ke test tak postpone karunga. Main wahan bhi sell karne ka plan kar raha hoon, lekin sirf unsuccessful consolidation ke baad. Main short positions foran rebound par 1.1274 se kholne ka plan kar raha hoon, 30-35 points ki downward correction ka target rakhte

EUR/USD
Assalam Alaikum! Jaisa keh aap dekh sakte hain, euro/dollar ka joda European Central Bank ke aaj ke sud ki sherah ke faisle ki tawaqqo me 1.1000 ki satah tak gir gaya hai. Takniki nuqtah nazar se, mai tawaqqo karta hun keh agle hafte ke liye tai shudah Fed ke policy ke faisle ki ummidon par wapas ucchal se pahle European currency aaj 1.0947 ki support satah tak gir jaye. Mutabadil taur par, euro/dollar ka joda ECB ki meeting se pahle hi 1.0947 ke nishan tak gir sakta hai aur fir sud ki sherah me kami ke faisle par oopri raftar hasil kar sakta hai, is tarah aksariyat ko hairani ho sakti hain.

USD pair ne Jumay ko ek aam harkat dikhayi. Price puri European trading session mein stagnant rahi, aur phir US session ke aghaz par ek jazbaati tezi expected thi. Us waqt, US ne NonFarm Payrolls, unemployment rates, aur average earnings ke reports publish kiye. In reports ko wazeh tor par interpreter karna mushkil tha kyun ke unemployment rate thoda kam hua magar forecast ke andar hi raha; NonFarms ki tadaad forecast se thodi kam thi magar pehli value se zyada thi; wages mein izafa hua, jo ke Federal Reserve ke taraf se monetary policy ke aggressive easing ke chances ko kuch kam karta hai. Market ne in data ko “shara'iti tor par positive” samjha, aur dollar thoda barh gaya. Lekin yeh reports dollar ke liye koi khaas achay prospects nahi kholte. Labor market aur unemployment ke data ab bhi umeedon par pura nahi utarte, jo ke Fed ko kam az kam ek ya do dafa key rate kam karne par majboor karenge. Market ne in "ek ya do dafa" ke rate cuts ko pehle hi price mein shamil kar liya hai, magar ab bhi zyadatar aggressive policy easing ka intezar kar raha hai. Jumay ko 5-minute time frame par pehle poori flat thi, phir turbulence dekha gaya. US trading session ke dauran, naye traders sirf do sell signals par kaam kar sakte thay jo ke level 1.1132 ke qareeb aaye, kyun ke yeh sabse accurate thay. Magar macroeconomic background ka asar kafi zyada tha, toh 1.1132 ka level surpass ho sakta tha. 1.1091 ke level par ek hi waqt mein chaar trading signals bane, magar sabhi inaccurate aur contradictory thay.

**Monday ko kaise trade karein:**
Hourly time frame par, EUR/USD pair ne apni ascending trend line ke neeche consolidation ki hai, aur pehli dafa bohat arsay baad ek downward trend banane ka mauqa hai jo logical aur tamam analysis factors ke mutabiq hoga. Lekin afsos ke sath, illogical dollar sales jaldi se dobara shuru ho sakti hain downward correction ke baad, kyun ke kisi ko nahi pata ke market kab tak Fed ki monetary policy easing ko price mein shamil karta rahega, jo ke ab tak shuru nahi hui. Market ab tak takreeban tamam aane wale rate cuts ko price mein shamil kar raha hai, aur US ke macroeconomic data zyada tar disappoint hi karte

ستمبر 12 2024 کو یورو/امریکی ڈالر کی پیشن گوئی

اہم دن آ گیا ہے - یورپی مرکزی بینک نے اپنی شرح سود کو 0.25% سے کم کر کے 4.00% کر دیا ہے۔ گزشتہ تین دنوں کے دوران، یو ایس اسٹاک انڈیکس، ایس اینڈ پی 500، بڑھ رہا ہے، اور کل، تیل کی قیمتوں میں بھی اضافہ ہوا۔ دریں اثناء یورو کی قدر میں مسلسل پانچ دنوں سے کمی ہو رہی ہے۔ اگر ہم یہ کہیں کہ مارکیٹ کے شرکاء شرح میں کمی کی توقع کر رہے ہیں، تو یہ وقت کا ضیاع ہوگا۔ ہمارا نقطہ نظر مختلف ہے - فیڈرل ریزرو کی جارحانہ شرح میں کمی کی توقع کے باوجود، ای سی بی کی اصل شرح میں کمی کی رفتار تیز ہونے کا امکان ہے۔ آج تک، ای سی ب کے نمائندوں نے مارکیٹ کو ایسا تاثر نہیں دیا، لیکن اب ایسا لگتا ہے کہ وقت آ گیا ہے۔ تاہم، یہ بالواسطہ طور پر اقتصادی بدحالی اور افراط زر کے خطرات کے بارے میں انتباہات کے ذریعے بتایا جائے گا۔ فیڈ، اس دوران، صرف اس بات کا اعادہ کرنے کی ضرورت ہوگی کہ مارکیٹ کی توقعات میں اضافہ ہوا ہے۔

شرح میں کمی کی بڑھتی ہوئی رفتار کی وجہ یورپ کے اندر کی صورت حال میں نہیں بلکہ ڈالر کے حوالے سے امریکی نقطہ نظر میں ہے، کیونکہ اسے غالب پوزیشن میں برقرار رکھا جانا چاہیے۔ عالمی تجارت میں ڈالر سے دور جانے والے ممالک کے خلاف پابندیاں طویل عرصے سے ٹرمپ کے منصوبوں کا حصہ ہیں لیکن اب ڈیموکریٹس نے بھی اس خیال کو اپنا لیا ہے۔ مضبوط ڈالر کی پالیسی ایک بار پھر امریکہ کی سرکاری پالیسی بن رہی ہے۔

ہمیں حیرانی نہیں ہوگی اگر ای. سی. بی. نے اکتوبر کی میٹنگ میں شرح کو 0.50% کم کر دیا۔



یومیہ چارٹ میں، یورو 1.1010 کی سپورٹ لیول پر ٹکی ہوئی ہے۔ 1.1003 کی کل کی کم ترین سطح کو توڑنا 1.0950 کے پہلے ہدف کی طرف نقل و حرکت کا بنیادی اشارہ ہوگا۔ ہم 1.0888-1.0905 کے ہدف کی حد سے اصلاح کی توقع رکھتے ہیں۔ جنوری سے مارکیٹ اس حد کے اندر دونوں سمتوں میں الٹ گئی ہے، اور نزولی قیمت چینل کی سرایت شدہ لائن وہاں واقع ہے۔


قیمت چار گھنٹے کے چارٹ میں بیلنس اور ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. انڈیکیٹر لائن سے نیچے ترقی کر رہی ہے، جبکہ مارلن آسیلیٹر ایک طرف رجحان میں ہے۔ اعداد و شمار کے مطابق، یہ پیٹرن بعد میں تیز رفتار نیچے کی حرکت کی تجویز کرتا ہے۔



.تعینات کیا مراد ہے مارکیٹ کے تجزیات یہاں ارسال کیے جاتے ہیں جس کا مقصد آپ کی بیداری بڑھانا ہے، لیکن تجارت کرنے کے لئے ہدایات دینا نہیں*

Main ne 1.1131 level par focus kiya aur apne trading decisions ko is par base kiya. 5-minute chart ko dekhne ke liye, yeh dekhte hain ki kya hua. Upward movement hua, lekin 1.1131 level par false breakout nahi hua, so mere paas koi entry points nahi the.

EUR/USD par Long Positions Kholne Ke Liye:

Eurozone statistics ki lack aur euro ki recent overbought condition market ko trend continue karne se rok rahi hai. FOMC meeting minutes ka release second half of the day mein expected hai. Is document se kuch naya reveal hone ki ummeed nahi hai, so dollar ko sell karne aur euro ko buy karne ka outlook hai, lekin yeh actions highly unbalanced market mein li jani chahiye, kyunki volatility return karne ki ummeed nahi hai.




Current conditions mein, euro ki overbought condition ke saath, decline par act karna best hai aur 1.1102 support level par false breakout ke baad, jahan moving averages hain, bulls ko favor karte hain. Yeh long positions kholne ke liye favorable condition hoga, anticipating further euro growth aur bullish trend ko strengthen karne ke liye.

EUR/USD par Short Positions Kholne Ke Liye:

Sirf very hawkish FOMC minutes release hi euro sellers ko pair mein correction karne ki chance dega, jo ki long overdue hai. Euro growth ki attempts mein, main sellers ko 1.1131 resistance level par expect karta hoon, jahan hum first half of the day mein nahi pahuche. False breakout yahan short positions kholne ka reason hoga, targeting decline towards 1.1102 support

EUR/USD currency pair ke mojooda pricing behavior ka jaiza hai. Asian high 1.1069 ko chhune ke baad, EUR/USD currency pair ne jaldi se ground khona shuru kar diya. Sellers ne pair ko neeche push kiya lekin pair abhi bhi 1.1021 ke support level ke upar hai. Agar buyers euro ko is level ke upar barqarar rakh sakte hain, to mujhe umeed hai ke price northward move karega local trend line 1.1059 tak, jahan ek potential breakthrough ho sakta hai jo isay mazeed strengthen karte hue bulls ke liye agla resistance level 1.1096 tak le yes. Agar hourly candle 1.1021 ke neeche close hota hai, to pair ka girna jaari rahega aur yeh 1.0986 tak ja sakta hai. Jab tak yeh level qaim hai, buyers mazboot hain, lekin agar yeh break hota hai to trend shift kar sakta hai. Dono levels aaj ke din ke liye possible the, jisse outlook abhi bhi uncertain hai, lekin upward trend line buying ke haq mein hai. Buyers mazed strength tab hasil karenge jab pair 1.1059 ko break karega, lekin abhi bhi unko halka sa faida hai.
Hum EUR/USD pair mein bearish correction aur ek local reversal dekh rahe hain. Aaj ke din price ne 1.1022 level ko test kiya, aur yeh bears ka is haftay ka aakhri target nahi ho sakta. US stock markets ne kafi losses ka samna kiya hai, jo safe-haven currencies jaise yen aur franc ko mazbooti de raha hai, jo ke risk se dour hone ki nishani hai. Weak US PMI/ISM Index data ne bhi in concerns ko barhawa diya hai, jo ke ek potential recession ka dar paida kar raha hai. Daily chart par EUR/USD ek wide ascending channel mein trade kar raha hai, aur mujhe umeed hai ke yeh movement jaari rahegi, jo channel ke lower boundary 1.0929/19 tak ja sakti hai. Wapas 11th-floor levels tak pohanchna nonfarm payroll report par mabni hai, jo ke is Friday ko aayegi. Agar yeh surat-e-haal barqarar rehti hai to strong buying opportunities samne aa sakti hain, jisme pehla target 1.0969 ke aas paas ho sakta haihai

EUR/USD ka neutral bias hai lekin ab tak 1.1000 level se upar hai. Relative Strength Index (RSI) downside ki taraf turn ho chuka hai, jo potential weakness ka ishara karta hai. Agar EUR/USD mein recovery hoti hai September 11 peak se, toh yeh 1.1100 level tak ja sakti hai. Magar agar pair 1.1000 se neeche break karta hai, toh 50-day moving average (DMA) 1.0967 par aur July 17 swing high 1.0948 par support provide kar sakte hain. Current situation next breakout ke liye positive outlook deti hai around 1.1490 physiology mark ke aas paas.EUR/USD pair mein aik halka sa decline dekhne ko mila Wednesday ko, jisme 0.04% ka nuksan hua US inflation report ke release ke baad. August mein core consumer price index (CPI) mein koi tabdeeli nahi hui, jo is baat ki taraf ishara karti hai ke Federal Reserve (Fed) ke interest rate hike cycle mein ek potential pause aa sakta hai. EUR/USD pair narrow range mein trade kar rahi thi, jisme daily high 1.1055 aur daily low 1.1001 tha. European Central Bank (ECB) ki aanewali monetary policy decision ne pair ki movement ko influence kiya, jisme market participants ne apni expectations adjust ki for the extent of the Fed's rate cut. Money market futures traders ne apni 50 basis point rate cut ke bets ko reduce kiya, aur 25 basis point cut ki taraf zyada probability shift hui. Eurozone economic calendar mein ECB decision aur German inflation data ka intezar hai, jo expected hai ke year-on-year 1.9% ka rise dikhaye ga. Magar PMI data ye batata hai ke economy slow ho rahi hai, jo ECB ke 25 basis points ka interest rate cut karne ke decision ko support karta hai. Iske bawajood, ECB ke kuch hawks expect kiye ja rahe hain ke woh is cut ko resist karein, kyunki kuch inflationary factors ab tak persistent hain. Reuters ki reports yeh suggest karti hain ke September ke baad ECB ki monetary policy decisions aur bhi complex ho sakti hain

EUR/USD pair ne Tuesday ko sirf bohot kamzor volatility dikhayi, aur kuch khaas nahi hua. Ye itna surprising nahi hai kyun ke Eurozone ya U.S. mein koi macroeconomic ya fundamental factors nahi the kal. Sirf Germany ka August ke liye Consumer Price Index ka doosra estimate publish hua. Jis tarah expected tha, doosra estimate pehle waale se mukhtalif nahi tha.

Aaj ka sab se important U.S. inflation report release hoga, aur kal European Central Bank ki meeting hai. Ye samajhna aasan hai ke market trading decisions lene mein jaldi nahi kar raha. Downward trend barkarar hai lekin bohot unstable hai, jaise ke hum pehle bhi mention kar chuke hain. Agar U.S. inflation forecast se kam value dikhata hai, to dollar asani se aur jaldi se gir sakta hai. Hum believe karte hain ke euro ko significant tor pe lambi muddat tak girna chahiye, lekin abhi tak hum puri tarah sure nahi hain ke market ne Federal Reserve ke agli do saal ke liye planned rate cuts ko fully price-in kiya hai ya nahi.

Tuesday ko sirf ek trading signal generate hua 5-minute time frame mein. European trading session ke start mein, price ne 1.1048 level se rebound kiya, us ke baad price ne 15-20 pips ka downward move kiya. Volatility bohot kamzor thi. Phir bhi, novice traders ne is trade se thoda profit bana liya hoga, aur 35-pip total volatility ke sath 15-pip ka profit banana ek bohot acha result hai.

**Wednesday ko trade kaise karein:**

Hourly time frame mein, EUR/USD pair ne ascending trend line ke neeche consolidation dikhayi, aur lambi arse baad pehli dafa downward trend banane ka chance hai jo logical aur tamam factors aur analysis ke mutabiq hoga. Afsos, illogical dollar sales phir se jaldi shuru ho sakti hain kyun ke koi nahi jaanta ke market kab tak Fed ke monetary policy easing ko price-in karta rahega, jo abhi tak start nahi hui. Market ab tak almost saare future rate cuts ko dollar ki price mein price-in kar raha hai, aur U.S. ke macroeconomic data aksar disappoint karte hain.

Wednesday ko, novice traders ek naye decline ki umeed kar sakte hain pair mein, lekin sab kuch U.S. inflation report par depend karega jo din ke doosre hisson mein aayegi.

5M time frame par key levels jo consider karne chahiye wo hain: 1.0726-1.0733, 1.0797-1.0804, 1.0838-1.0856, 1.0888-1.0896, 1.0940, 1.0971, 1.1011, 1.1048, 1.1091, 1.1132, 1.1191, aur 1.1275-1.1292. Wednesday ko Eurozone mein koi significant events planned nahi hain, lekin U.S. mein CPI for August, jo ke "event of the week" consider kiya jaata hai, release hoga.

Currency pair ka agle teen mahine mein 1.1100 ke aas-paas trade karne ka projection hai. Market analyst Foley ke mutabiq, recent breakout aur Federal Reserve ke naye policy cycle ke shuru hone se ek naya trading range emerge ho raha hai. Lekin, Foley ne yeh bhi warn kiya ke agar early September mein key U.S. economic data market expectations se behtar aati hai, to EUR/USD ko 1.1200 ke aas-paas pullbacks ka samna karna pad sakta hai.

**Geopolitical Tensions aur Inka Market Par Asar:**

Recent geopolitical developments mein Israel aur Lebanon ke Hezbollah ke darmiyan firefight shamil hai, jo khushi ki baat hai ke zyada nahi badh gayi. Dusri taraf, Hamas ne Israel ke naye ceasefire conditions ko reject kar diya hai jo Egypt mein negotiations ke dauran propose kiye gaye the. Hamas ka kehna hai ke Israel ko U.S. President Joe Biden aur UN Security Council ke set kiye gaye terms par amal karna chahiye. Yeh tensions seedha currency markets ko nahi affect karti, lekin investor sentiment ko broader uncertainty ke zariye influence karti hain.

**Federal Reserve ke Policy Outlook:**

San Francisco Federal Reserve ki President Mary Daly ne Bloomberg TV ke saath baat cheet mein bataya ke shayad ab interest rates ko kam karne ka waqt aa gaya hai. Daly ka kehna tha ke Fed shayad quarter percentage point se rates ko kam karne shuru kare. Unhone yeh bhi kaha ke agar inflation dheere dheere kam hota raha aur labor market stable raha, to monetary policy ko normal cadence ke sath adjust karna samajhdaari hogi. Yeh potential policy shift EUR/USD pair ke liye significant implications rakh sakta hai.

**European Central Bank (ECB) ki Stance:**

ECB Governing Council ke member Olli Rehn ne Eurozone ki economic conditions par recent comments kiye. Rehn ne kaha ke ongoing inflation slowdown aur Eurozone economy ki kamzori ke bawajood borrowing costs ko agle mahine kam karne ki zaroorat hai. Traders dekh rahe hain ke Federal Reserve ke anticipated rate cuts ECB policies ko kis tarah impact kar sakte hain. Key economic indicators, jese ke GfK Consumer Confidence Survey aur Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, aage ke insights provide karenge.

**H4 Chart Short-Term EUR/USD Movements:**

Short term mein, pair 1.1050 level par wapas ana mushkil ho sakta hai kyunki significant U.S. data ki kami se dollar thoda favor ho sakta hai. 1.1100 support level ka retest hona mumkin hai. Overbought conditions ki wajah se kuch din consolidation ka samna karna pad sakta hai, lekin agar crucial support level 1.1171 breach nahi hota, to overall outlook EUR ke liye positive hai.

**Aaj ka Haal:**

Wednesday ko, spot price ne rally ki, lagbhag aadha percent gain hua, jab investors ne trading week ka shuruat renewed enthusiasm ke saath kiya. Pair 1.1050 level ko paar kar gaya aur 1.1110 handle ke retest ke raste par hai. Yeh positive momentum broader market trends aur euro ke performance par investor confidence ko reflect karta hai.