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EUR/USD Market Outlook

Salam aur Subah Bakhair sab zair-e-nazar logon ko! European Main Refinancing Rate aur European Central Bank (ECB) ki monetary policy ka bohot bara kirdar hota hai EUR/USD currency pair par asar dalne mein, khaaskar un kharidaaron ke liye jo 1.1055 zone ko cross karna chahte hain. Ye ahm rate, jo ECB set karta hai, seedha Eurozone mein lending conditions ko asar dalta hai aur economy ko tezi ya susti ki taraf le ja sakta hai, jo ke EUR/USD exchange rate par asar dalta hai. Kharidaar ECB Press Conference ko ghore se dekhtay hain, kyun ke ye event aam tor par market mein bohot zyada volatility laata hai. Is event ke dauran, ECB ke afsar aaney wali monetary policies aur economy ke outlook ke baray mein insights faraham karte hain, jo market sentiment ko mazeed asar daitay hain. Dusri taraf, US dollar ki harkat bhi high-impact news events se bohot zyada mutasir hoti hai, khaaskar jo Unemployment Rate aur Core Producer Price Index (PPI) data se mutaliq hotay hain. Ye dono indicators US economy ki sehat ka mazboot aks dete hain, aur agar berozgari barhti hai to dollar kamzor hota hai, jabke PPI mein tabdeeliyan inflation ke expectations ko asar dalti hain.

Aaj ka market donon taraf ke Atlantic se anay walay conflicting news events ki waja se gher yaqini ka shikar hai. Trading ke liye, mein EUR/USD par buy order lagana pasand karunga, aur mera target short-term resistance 1.1055 par hoga. Key economic events ka confluence iss pair ko upper move karne ka moka de sakta hai, khaaskar agar data kamzor US dollar ya ECB ke dovish stance ko support karta hai. Ideal outcome yeh hoga ke market buyers ke haqq mein jaari rahe, aur EUR 1.1055 ke target ki taraf momentum banaye. Magar ye yaad rakhna zaroori hai ke news events jaise ke ECB Press Conference ya US economic data releases aasani se market sentiment ko tabdeel kar sakti hain, jo sudden reversals ya zyada volatility ka sabab ban sakti hain. Is liye, jabke pehla bias bulls ke haqq mein hai, ye bohot ahem hai ke hum ehtiyat aur flexibility ko barqarar rakhein, kyun ke ye events din ke akhir mein market ke direction ko tabdeel kar sakte hain.

Khush raho!

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
Wall Street ka session achi position par khatam hua, jab ke US dollar mazid mazboot raha US Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) mein izafa hone ki wajah se. August ka Core CPI 0.3% MoM barha, jo ke pehle maheene mein 0.2% tha, aur yeh umeedon se zyada raha. Baqi ke inflation ke numbers, jaise ke annual aur monthly statistics, aur yearly core CPI, umeed ke mutabiq rahe.

EUR/USD ke girne ko European Central Bank (ECB) ki ane wali monetary policy decision ne roka, jab yeh pair apne rozana ke low 1.1001 ko touch kar ke foran 1.1010-1.1020 area mein wapas aya.

EUR/USD ke girne ka ek aur sabab yeh tha ke money market futures traders ne agle haftay ke liye Federal Reserve (Fed) ke 50 basis points (bps) rate cut ke chances ko 40% se 15% tak ghata diya, jab ke 25 bps ke chances 66% se barh kar 85% ho gaye.

Eurozone ke economic calendar mein ECB ka decision focus mein hoga is haftay ke end se pehle. ECB se umeed hai ke yeh rates ko 25 bps se kam karega, jab ke Germany ki inflation YoY 1.9% par aa gayi hai, aur PMI readings ek economic slowdown ko zahir karti hain. Is ke bawajood, ECB ke hawks umeed kar rahe hain ke kuch inflation components umeed se zyada sticky honge, is liye woh resist karenge.

Forward guidance ke hawale se, Reuters ke zariye sources ne bataya ke September ke baad ECB ke monetary policy decisions zyada mushkil honge.

Doosri taraf, US economic calendar mein Initial Jobless Claims report release ki jayegi jo September 7 ko khatam hone wale haftay ke liye hogi, aur Producer Price Index (PPI) bhi release kiya jayega.

Technical Analysis:

EUR/USD ka neutral bias hai, lekin yeh abhi bhi 1.1000 figure se upar hai, jo ECB ke decision ke intezar mein hai. Momentum bearish direction mein shift ho gaya hai, jaisa ke Relative Strength Index (RSI) mein dekha gaya, lekin uska slope upar ki taraf hai.

Agar EUR/USD 11 September ke peak 1.1054 ko cross kar leta hai, toh yeh pair 1.1100 mark tak ja sakta hai. Agar yeh pair 1.1000 se neeche girta hai, toh pehla defense line bulls ke liye 50-day moving average (DMA) par 1.0967 hoga, jo ke 17 July ka swing high support ban gaya hai 1.0948 par.

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
Wall Street ka session achi position par khatam hua, jab ke US dollar mazid mazboot raha US Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) mein izafa hone ki wajah se. August ka Core CPI 0.3% MoM barha, jo ke pehle maheene mein 0.2% tha, aur yeh umeedon se zyada raha. Baqi ke inflation ke numbers, jaise ke annual aur monthly statistics, aur yearly core CPI, umeed ke mutabiq rahe.

EUR/USD ke girne ko European Central Bank (ECB) ki ane wali monetary policy decision ne roka, jab yeh pair apne rozana ke low 1.1001 ko touch kar ke foran 1.1010-1.1020 area mein wapas aya.

EUR/USD ke girne ka ek aur sabab yeh tha ke money market futures traders ne agle haftay ke liye Federal Reserve (Fed) ke 50 basis points (bps) rate cut ke chances ko 40% se 15% tak ghata diya, jab ke 25 bps ke chances 66% se barh kar 85% ho gaye.

Eurozone ke economic calendar mein ECB ka decision focus mein hoga is haftay ke end se pehle. ECB se umeed hai ke yeh rates ko 25 bps se kam karega, jab ke Germany ki inflation YoY 1.9% par aa gayi hai, aur PMI readings ek economic slowdown ko zahir karti hain. Is ke bawajood, ECB ke hawks umeed kar rahe hain ke kuch inflation components umeed se zyada sticky honge, is liye woh resist karenge.

Forward guidance ke hawale se, Reuters ke zariye sources ne bataya ke September ke baad ECB ke monetary policy decisions zyada mushkil honge.

Doosri taraf, US economic calendar mein Initial Jobless Claims report release ki jayegi jo September 7 ko khatam hone wale haftay ke liye hogi, aur Producer Price Index (PPI) bhi release kiya jayega.

Technical Analysis:

EUR/USD ka neutral bias hai, lekin yeh abhi bhi 1.1000 figure se upar hai, jo ECB ke decision ke intezar mein hai. Momentum bearish direction mein shift ho gaya hai, jaisa ke Relative Strength Index (RSI) mein dekha gaya, lekin uska slope upar ki taraf hai.

Agar EUR/USD 11 September ke peak 1.1054 ko cross kar leta hai, toh yeh pair 1.1100 mark tak ja sakta hai. Agar yeh pair 1.1000 se neeche girta hai, toh pehla defense line bulls ke liye 50-day moving average (DMA) par 1.0967 hoga, jo ke 17 July ka swing high support ban gaya hai 1.0948 par.

EURUSD
Budh ke din EurUsd market pair ka trading zyadatar sellers ke qabze mein raha, jo ke price ko apne control mein rakhne mein kamyab rahe aur price ko seller resistance area 1.1050-1.1048 ke neeche rakha. Yeh waja bani ke pehle jo buyers ki bullish tehqiqat thi, wo fail ho gayi aur phir sellers ne zyada bearish pressure apply karte hue price ko neeche gira diya.

Daily time frame mein Moving Average indicator ke zariye dekha gaya, ke price ya candle ne MA 50 Red area ke kareeb 1.0965-1.0967 par move karna shuru kiya hai, jise ab tak buyers ne roka hua hai. Kal ke trading mein sellers ne ek bearish candlestick banate hue EurUsd market ko dominate kiya, jis ke natijay mein price ke mazeed neeche girne ke imkanaat hain. Agla target MA 50 Red area ke neeche ka hoga. Agar yeh kamiyabi se ho gaya, toh price mazeed kamzor ho kar MA 100 Blue area 1.0874-1.0876 tak ja sakti hai.

Aaj, Thursday ke din ke trading ke doran, buyers ne phir se trading ko dominate kiya, aur seller ke bearish pressure ko buyer support area 1.1005-1.1007 par rok liya. Yeh waja bani ke bearish sellers ka raasta roka gaya aur buyers ne prices ko mazeed upar bullish movement mein la kar agle target seller resistance area 1.1044-1.1055 tak pohanchaya. Agar buyers is area ko torne mein kamiyab ho gaye, toh EurUsd pair ki price mazeed barh kar agle strong seller supply resistance area 1.1094-1.1096 tak ja sakti hai.

Nateejah:

Agar price seller resistance area ko break kar leti hai, toh buy trading ka option ikhtiyar kiya ja sakta hai. Is ke liye pending buy stop order 1.1044-1.1045 par lagaya ja sakta hai, aur TP area 1.1093-1.1095 ho sakta hai.

Agar price buyer support area ko break kar leti hai, toh sell trading ka option ikhtiyar kiya ja sakta hai. Pending sell stop order 1.0993-1.0990 par lagaya ja sakta hai, aur TP area 1.1040-1.1038 ho sakta hai.

EURUSD
Budh ke din EurUsd market pair ka trading zyadatar sellers ke qabze mein raha, jo ke price ko apne control mein rakhne mein kamyab rahe aur price ko seller resistance area 1.1050-1.1048 ke neeche rakha. Yeh waja bani ke pehle jo buyers ki bullish tehqiqat thi, wo fail ho gayi aur phir sellers ne zyada bearish pressure apply karte hue price ko neeche gira diya.

Daily time frame mein Moving Average indicator ke zariye dekha gaya, ke price ya candle ne MA 50 Red area ke kareeb 1.0965-1.0967 par move karna shuru kiya hai, jise ab tak buyers ne roka hua hai. Kal ke trading mein sellers ne ek bearish candlestick banate hue EurUsd market ko dominate kiya, jis ke natijay mein price ke mazeed neeche girne ke imkanaat hain. Agla target MA 50 Red area ke neeche ka hoga. Agar yeh kamiyabi se ho gaya, toh price mazeed kamzor ho kar MA 100 Blue area 1.0874-1.0876 tak ja sakti hai.

Aaj, Thursday ke din ke trading ke doran, buyers ne phir se trading ko dominate kiya, aur seller ke bearish pressure ko buyer support area 1.1005-1.1007 par rok liya. Yeh waja bani ke bearish sellers ka raasta roka gaya aur buyers ne prices ko mazeed upar bullish movement mein la kar agle target seller resistance area 1.1044-1.1055 tak pohanchaya. Agar buyers is area ko torne mein kamiyab ho gaye, toh EurUsd pair ki price mazeed barh kar agle strong seller supply resistance area 1.1094-1.1096 tak ja sakti hai.

Nateejah:

Agar price seller resistance area ko break kar leti hai, toh buy trading ka option ikhtiyar kiya ja sakta hai. Is ke liye pending buy stop order 1.1044-1.1045 par lagaya ja sakta hai, aur TP area 1.1093-1.1095 ho sakta hai.

Agar price buyer support area ko break kar leti hai, toh sell trading ka option ikhtiyar kiya ja sakta hai. Pending sell stop order 1.0993-1.0990 par lagaya ja sakta hai, aur TP area 1.1040-1.1038 ho sakta hai.

EUR/USD Price Dynamic

EUR/USD currency pair ke price action ka analysis hamari guftagu ka mawad hai. Jo bearish candle develop hui hai, wo yeh indicate karti hai ke EUR/USD market pair ab bhi kaafi strong negative potential ke saath bearish target par hai. Daily time window par, price ya candle ab bhi red MA 50 level ke upar hai, jo 1.0960-1.0970 ke price range mein hai aur kaafi close distance par hai. Yeh mumkin hai ke vendor price ko red MA 50 ke aas paas kam karne ki koshish kare. Agar yeh level breach hota hai, to EUR/USD pair ka agla objective Blue MA 100 region hai, jo ab 1.0870 aur 1.0890 ke beech trade kar raha hai.

Aaj ke market session mein price dheere dheere move kar rahi hai, lekin yeh zahir hai ke buyers price position ko control karne ki koshish kar rahe hain taake price previous buyer support area 1.0990 ke upar rahe. Yeh suggest karta hai ke price upward correction mein move kar sakti hai, jiska target price 1.10543 hai, jo pehle ka resistance area hai. EUR/USD pair ke price ke aage bhi increase hone ki ummeed hai agar yeh level break ho jata hai, aur 50-period Moving Average ke direction mein move hota hai.

H4 time period mein, EUR/USD pair market kaafi strong bearish pattern dikhata hai, kam se kam is haftay ke trading ke liye. Agar hum H4 timeframe par moving average indicator ka use karein, to humein nazar aata hai ke price ab bhi seller ke control mein hai, jo candle ya price ko 50-period moving average ke neeche kaafi comfortably maintain karne mein kamiyab raha hai, aur movement bhi kaafi consistent hai. Ab bhi selling pressure ka acha chance hai, aur agla bearish seller target previous support area 1.0990 hai.

EUR/USD pair ne Wednesday ko temporary pullback experience kiya, jo ke recent rally ke baad aya tha jisme pair ne saal ke naye highs ko touch kiya. Ye decline zyada tar un expectations ki wajah se hua jo September mein Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut ke hawale se thi. Is wajah se broader market ka risk appetite thoda kam hua. Mid-week economic calendar mein koi khaas activity nahi thi, magar Thursday ko US GDP data ka release hona hai, jise closely monitor kiya jaega. Consensus forecast ye indicate karta hai ke second-quarter GDP growth stable rahegi, around 2.8%, jis se significant market reaction ki umeed nahi hai. Lekin week ka sabse important data release US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation data ka hai jo Friday ko ana hai. Investors is baat ka intezar kar rahe hain ke inflation ka raasta ruk gaya hai ya kam se kam itni tez nahi barh rahi jo Fed ko September 18 ke rate cut se roke.

Technical perspective se dekha jaye to EUR/USD pair abhi 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) 1.0850 ke upar test kar raha hai. Agar decline continue karta hai, to retreat 50-day EMA ke qareeb 1.0940 tak hosakta hai. August mein pair ne strong gains dikhaye hain, rally karte hue 1.0776 se lagbhag 1.1200 tak pohanch gaya. Ye performance Euro ke liye positive outlook suggest karti hai. Magar, caution ki zarurat hai kyun ke Relative Strength Index (RSI) aur Stochastics overbought conditions ko dikhate hain, jo potential selling pressure ka ishara deti hain.
1.1240-1.1274 ka area, jo ke 61.8% Fibonacci retracement aur 2022 ka low trendline shamil karta hai, near term mein resistance de sakta hai. Agar pair is area ke upar breakout karta hai, to 1.1340 aur 1.1370 tak ke upside targets hosakte hain. Lekin 1.1480 ka area ek bari rukawat ban sakta hai jo upward momentum ko rok sakti hai. Iske ilawa, geopolitical tensions aur global economic uncertainties bhi EUR/USD pair ko effect kar sakti hain. Ukraine conflict, trade disputes, aur global recession ke concerns currency market mein volatility la sakte hain. Overall, EUR/USD pair economic, geopolitical, aur technical factors se influenced rahegi, aur investors ko in developments ko closely monitor karna hoga taake informed trading decisions liye ja sakein.

EURUSD currency pair ke price action ka tajziya humare guftagu ka mawad hoga. Wahi bearish candle jo dobara develop hui hai, ye darshati hai ke EURUSD market pair ab bhi kaafi mazboot negative potential ke sath hai aur bearish target ki taraf ja raha hai. Daily time window par, price ya candle ab bhi red MA 50 level ke upar hai jo ke 1.0960-1.0970 ke beech hai, aur yeh faasla kaafi kam hai. Yeh mumkin hai ke vendor price ko red MA 50 ke aas-paas girane ki koshish kare. Agar yeh level break hota hai, to agla objective Blue MA 100 region hoga, jo ab 1.0870 aur 1.0890 ke beech trade kar raha hai.

Price aaj ke market session mein dheere dheere move kar rahi hai, lekin ye zahir hai ke buyers price position ko control karne ki koshish kar rahe hain taake price pichle buyer support area 1.0990 ke upar banaye rakhe. Yeh darshata hai ke price upward correction ki taraf move kar sakti hai, jiska target price 1.10543 ho sakta hai, jo ke pichla resistance area hai. Agar EURUSD pair is level ko break kar sakta hai, to price ke aur upar badhne ki ummeed hai, jo ke 50-period Moving Average ke taraf hoga.

H4 time period mein, EURUSD pair ka market is haftay ke trading ke liye kaafi mazboot bearish pattern mein lag raha hai. Agar hum H4 timeframe par moving average indicator ka istemal karein, to humein dikhai deta hai ke price ab bhi seller ke control mein hai, jo candle ya price ko 50-period moving average ke neeche kaafi asaani se banaye rakhta hai aur movement bhi consistent hai. Bechne ka pressure abhi bhi achha hai, aur agla bearish seller ka target pichla support area 1.0990 ho sakta hai.

1.1153 level par focus kiya tha aur market mein entry decisions is par banaane ka plan kiya tha. Ab hum 5-minute chart dekhtay hain aur dekhte hain kya hua. Girawat hui, lekin is level par na to koi test hua aur na hi false breakout formation hui. Low volatility ki wajah se koi suitable entry points nahi milay. Phir bhi, doosray half of the day ke liye technical picture ko thora revise kiya EUR/USD mein Long Positions kholne ke liye Germany ka GDP figures economists ki forecasts ke mutabiq aaye, aur halaan ke report disappointing thi, lekin euro par sirf thoda pressure pada, kyun ke pehlay se hi data ne GDP contraction ko indicate kar diya tha second quarter mein. Doosray half of the day mein ziada activity ki umeed hai, jab ke US consumer confidence, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, aur 20 barae US shehron mein home price index ke data aa rahe hain. Agar consumer confidence mein kami hoti hai, to euro ko support milne ke chances hain, lekin agar yeh indicator barhta hai, jo ke mojooda surat-e-haal mein mumkin hai, to EUR/USD aur neeche ja sakta hai, jisko main fayda uthane ke liye dekh raha hoon. Agar 1.1153 support level par girawat ke baad false breakout hota hai, to yeh long positions kholne ke liye ek acha moka hoga, jisme euro ka rise aur bullish trend ka mazid mazbooti ka aim hoga, aur 1.1199 ka monthly high wapas aayega. Is range ka breakout aur upward retest pair ko barhata hua 1.1237 ka test karne ka moka dega. Aakhri target 1.1274 hoga, jahan main profits le lunga. Agar EUR/USD second half of the day mein 1.1153 ke aas paas significant activity ke baghair girta hai, to sellers ke paas ek bara correction ka moka hoga. Is surat mein, main sirf 1.1130 ke aglay support level par false breakout ke baad entry karunga. Mazeed, main 1.1107 se rebound par long positions kholne ka plan kar raha hoon, 30-35 points ki upward correction ka target rakhte hue EUR/USD mein Short Positions kholne ke liye Sellers ne bhi wait-and-see approac apnay hai, aur Germany ke data par sirf thoda react kiya hai. Agar euro second half of the day mein barhta hai (aur yaad rahe, hum bullish trend mein hain), to mujhe umeed hai ke sellers sirf 1.1199 ke resistance ke aas paas nazar aayenge, jo aaj tak hum nahi pohanchay hain. Is level par false breakout short positions kholne ka moka dega, jisme pair ko 1.1153 support tak reduce karne ka target hoga

EURUSD

Wednesday ko EURUSD market pair par trading ka rukh sellers ka dominate raha, jinhon ne price ko seller's resistance area, jo ke 1.1050-1.1048 par tha, ke neeche banaye rakha. Is wajah se, buyers ka jo bullish momentum shuru mein trading par dominate kar raha tha, usay sellers ne rok diya aur control apne haath mein le liya. Sellers ne zyada bearish pressure apply karke price ko phir se niche ki taraf le aaya.

EURUSD Analysis:

Daily time window par Moving Average indicator ka istemal karke dekha gaya hai ke price ya candle neeche move kar rahi hai aur MA 50 Red area ke qareeb aa rahi hai, jo ke 1.0965-1.0967 ke darmiyan hai aur abhi tak buyers ne isay maintain kiya hua hai. Kal sellers ke EURUSD market pair trading ko dominate karne ke baad aur bearish candlestick bana kar, price ke aur niche girne ke mauqe ban gaye hain, aur agla target MA 50 Red area ke neeche test karna aur penetrate karna hai. Agar ye ho gaya, to EURUSD ki price aur bhi kamzor ho jayegi aur agla target MA 100 Blue area ki taraf hoga, jo ke 1.0874-1.0876 ke darmiyan hai.

Thursday afternoon ko trading ke doran, buyers ne actually trading ko dominate karte hue bearish seller rate ko buyer support area, jo ke 1.1005-1.1007 ke darmiyan hai, par rok diya. Is wajah se bearish seller rate phir se fail ho gaya aur buyers ne ise use karte hue price ko bullishly upar le jana shuru kar diya. Agla target nearest seller resistance area, jo ke 1.1044-1.1055 ke darmiyan hai, ke taraf hai. Agar buyers is area ko validly break kar dete hain, to EURUSD ki price aur bhi upar chale jayegi aur agla target strong seller supply resistance area, jo ke 1.1094-1.1096 ke darmiyan hai, ke taraf hoga.

Conclusion:

Buy Trading Options: Agar price seller resistance area ko break kar deti hai to pending buy stop order ko 1.1044-1.1045 ke area par lagaya ja sakta hai aur TP area 1.1093-1.1095 par rakha ja sakta hai.

Sell Trading Options: Agar price buyer support area ko break kar deti hai to pending sell stop order ko 1.0993-1.0990 ke area par lagaya ja sakta hai aur TP area 1.1040-1.1038 par rakha ja sakta hai.



4o mini

EUR/USD ne apni tez girawat ko dobara shuru kar diya. Issi dauraan, technical indicators maamool ke mutabiq neechay ki taraf momentum dikhate hain, aur oversold territory ki taraf barh rahe hain, jo mazeed girawat ki taraf ishaara karte hain. Bullish scenario mein, qareeb tareen muzahmat (resistance) 1.1075 ke aas paas hai. Agar EUR/USD iss level se upar break karta hai, to kharidaar ki keemat mazeed barh sakti hai, jiss ke baad aglay resistance targets 1.1055 aur uske baad 1.1075 hain. In levels ke upar break karna dobara buying interest ko signal karega, jo mumkin hai ke mazeed munafay ki soorat meyn samnay aaye Bearish side par, EUR/USD chart mazeed girawat ke imkaan ko zyada dikhata hai, khaas tor par agar pair mazeed support levels ke upar rehne mein nakam hota hai. Ehm support level 1.1066 par hai, jo salana low 1.0990 se zara upar aik ahem had hai. Agar qeemat iss level ko breach karti hai, to yeh nishan dehti hai ke neechey ki taraf mazeed muhim girawat mumkin hai, aur mazeed imkaanat hain ke exchange rate mazeed kamzor ho jaaye. Market Federal Reserve ki policy tabdiliyon aur U.S. economic data, khaas tor par rozgaar ke figures, ke liye sensitive hai, jo pair ki aglay harkat ko shakal dein ge. EUR/USD chhoti muddat ki correction ke liye tayyar hai, aur technical indicators oversold conditions ki taraf ishaara karte hain
EUR/USD market pair mein price ki kamzori ko market support mil raha hai, kyunki candles ab bhi bearish candlesticks se dominated hain. Isse sellers ke liye price ko niche le jaane ka mauka barh gaya hai, aur is hafte MA 50 Red area tak target honi ki umeed hai.
Tuesday ko Asian market session se lekar European session tak trading mein, price buyers ke dominance mein nazar aayi jo bearish seller's pace ko block kar rahe hain, aur dynamic support area ko strengthen kar rahe hain, jiska bullish correction target kam se kam 1.1070-1.1073 ke seller's resistance area tak hai. Agar buyers is area ko penetrate kar lete hain, to agla target 1.1112-1.1115 ke seller's Supply resistance area tak bullish opportunity khul sakti hai.
EUR/USD chart yeh suggest karta hai ke aage aur girawat ke chances hain, khaaskar agar pair current support levels ko hold nahi kar pati. Essential support 1.1066 par hai, jo ke annual low 1.0990 ke upar ek critical threshold hai. Agar qeemat is level ko breach kar leti hai, to ye significant downward movement ka raasta khol sakta hai, aur agar exchange rate kamzor hota hai to further substantial declines bhi expect kiye ja sakte hain.

EUR/USD pair ne Tuesday ko sirf bohot kamzor volatility dikhayi, aur kuch khaas nahi hua. Ye itna surprising nahi hai kyun ke Eurozone ya U.S. mein koi macroeconomic ya fundamental factors nahi the kal. Sirf Germany ka August ke liye Consumer Price Index ka doosra estimate publish hua. Jis tarah expected tha, doosra estimate pehle waale se mukhtalif nahi tha.

Aaj ka sab se important U.S. inflation report release hoga, aur kal European Central Bank ki meeting hai. Ye samajhna aasan hai ke market trading decisions lene mein jaldi nahi kar raha. Downward trend barkarar hai lekin bohot unstable hai, jaise ke hum pehle bhi mention kar chuke hain. Agar U.S. inflation forecast se kam value dikhata hai, to dollar asani se aur jaldi se gir sakta hai. Hum believe karte hain ke euro ko significant tor pe lambi muddat tak girna chahiye, lekin abhi tak hum puri tarah sure nahi hain ke market ne Federal Reserve ke agli do saal ke liye planned rate cuts ko fully price-in kiya hai ya nahi.

Tuesday ko sirf ek trading signal generate hua 5-minute time frame mein. European trading session ke start mein, price ne 1.1048 level se rebound kiya, us ke baad price ne 15-20 pips ka downward move kiya. Volatility bohot kamzor thi. Phir bhi, novice traders ne is trade se thoda profit bana liya hoga, aur 35-pip total volatility ke sath 15-pip ka profit banana ek bohot acha result hai.

**Wednesday ko trade kaise karein:**

Hourly time frame mein, EUR/USD pair ne ascending trend line ke neeche consolidation dikhayi, aur lambi arse baad pehli dafa downward trend banane ka chance hai jo logical aur tamam factors aur analysis ke mutabiq hoga. Afsos, illogical dollar sales phir se jaldi shuru ho sakti hain kyun ke koi nahi jaanta ke market kab tak Fed ke monetary policy easing ko price-in karta rahega, jo abhi tak start nahi hui. Market ab tak almost saare future rate cuts ko dollar ki price mein price-in kar raha hai, aur U.S. ke macroeconomic data aksar disappoint karte hain.

Wednesday ko, novice traders ek naye decline ki umeed kar sakte hain pair mein, lekin sab kuch U.S. inflation report par depend karega jo din ke doosre hisson mein aayegi.

5M time frame par key levels jo consider karne chahiye wo hain: 1.0726-1.0733, 1.0797-1.0804, 1.0838-1.0856, 1.0888-1.0896, 1.0940, 1.0971, 1.1011, 1.1048, 1.1091, 1.1132, 1.1191, aur 1.1275-1.1292. Wednesday ko Eurozone mein koi significant events planned nahi hain, lekin U.S. mein CPI for August, jo ke "event of the week" consider kiya jaata hai, release hoga

1.1153 level par focus kiya tha aur market mein entry decisions is par banaane ka plan kiya tha. Ab hum 5-minute chart dekhtay hain aur dekhte hain kya hua. Girawat hui, lekin is level par na to koi test hua aur na hi false breakout formation hui. Low volatility ki wajah se koi suitable entry points nahi milay. Phir bhi, doosray half of the day ke liye technical picture ko thora revise kiya EUR/USD mein Long Positions kholne ke liye Germany ka GDP figures economists ki forecasts ke mutabiq aaye, aur halaan ke report disappointing thi, lekin euro par sirf thoda pressure pada, kyun ke pehlay se hi data ne GDP contraction ko indicate kar diya tha second quarter mein. Doosray half of the day mein ziada activity ki umeed hai, jab ke US consumer confidence, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, aur 20 barae US shehron mein home price index ke data aa rahe hain. Agar consumer confidence mein kami hoti hai, to euro ko support milne ke chances hain, lekin agar yeh indicator barhta hai, jo ke mojooda surat-e-haal mein mumkin hai, to EUR/USD aur neeche ja sakta hai, jisko main fayda uthane ke liye dekh raha hoon. Agar 1.1153 support level par girawat ke baad false breakout hota hai, to yeh long positions kholne ke liye ek acha moka hoga, jisme euro ka rise aur bullish trend ka mazid mazbooti ka aim hoga, aur 1.1199 ka monthly high wapas aayega. Is range ka breakout aur upward retest pair ko barhata hua 1.1237 ka test karne ka moka dega. Aakhri target 1.1274 hoga, jahan main profits le lunga. Agar EUR/USD second half of the day mein 1.1153 ke aas paas significant activity ke baghair girta hai, to sellers ke paas ek bara correction ka moka hoga. Is surat mein, main sirf 1.1130 ke aglay support level par false breakout ke baad entry karunga. Mazeed, main 1.1107 se rebound par long positions kholne ka plan kar raha hoon, 30-35 points ki upward correction ka target rakhte hue EUR/USD mein Short Positions kholne ke liye Sellers ne bhi wait-and-see approac apnay hai, aur Germany ke data par sirf thoda react kiya hai. Agar euro second half of the day mein barhta hai (aur yaad rahe, hum bullish trend mein hain), to mujhe umeed hai ke sellers sirf 1.1199 ke resistance ke aas paas nazar aayenge, jo aaj tak hum nahi pohanchay hain. Is level par false breakout short positions kholne ka moka dega, jisme pair ko 1.1153 support tak reduce karne ka target hoga, jahan moving averages hain jo bulls ke haq mein hain. Is range ka breakout aur consolidation neeche aur downward retest mazeed selling ka moka dega, jisme movement 1.1130 tak hogi, jahan mujhe bulls se ziada active response ki umeed hai. Aakhri target 1.1107 hoga, jahan main profits le lunga. Agar EUR/USD weak US economic data ke bawajood barhta hai aur 1.1199 par koi bears nahi miltay, jo ke mumkin nahi hai, to buyers wapas initiative le lenge, jisme monthly high ko renew karne aur pair ko mazeed barhane ka moka hoga. Is surat mein, main selling ko aglay resistance 1.1237 ke test tak postpone karunga. Main wahan bhi sell karne ka plan kar raha hoon, lekin sirf unsuccessful consolidation ke baad. Main short positions foran rebound par 1.1274 se kholne ka plan kar raha hoon, 30-35 points ki downward correction ka target rakhte

Fundamental Outlook of EUR/USD

EUR/USD karansi jori is waqt aik mushkil soorat-e-haal se guzar rahi hai, jo kay kai factors se mutasir hai. Aik bara element jo iss jori ko asar andaz kar raha hai woh European Central Bank (ECB) ki sood ki sharah kam karne ki bartan hoti ummeed hai, jiska jaldi hi elaan kiya ja sakta hai. Sarmayakaaran is mumkin sood ki sharah mein kami par baray ghore se nazar rakhay hue hain kyun ke sood ki sharah mein kami aik karansi ko kamzor kar deti hai. Euro pehle se hi dusri bari karansiyon ke muqablay mein mushkil ka shikar hai, aur yeh rujhaan jari reh sakta hai agar ECB sood ki sharah mein kami ka faisla karta hai. Sood ki sharah mein kami ka sabab Eurozone mein afraat-e-zar mein ahista rone ki wajah se hai. Tajaazya garon ka andaza hai ke afraat-e-zar, jo ke Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) se naapta jata hai, mazeed thanda hota rahega. August ke liye HICP ki mukammal sharah 2.3% tak girne ki tawaqo hai, jab ke core inflation jo zyada utar chadhaw walay components ko nikaal kar nape jati hai, uske 2.8% tak girne ki paishgoi hai. Yeh afraat-e-zar ki adad o shumaar yeh izhar karti hain ke ECB ko sood ki sharah ko mazeed kam karna par sakta hai taake maeeshat ko sahara diya ja sake
Eurozone ki bari maeeshati soorat-e-haal ab bhi ghair yaqiniyat se do-chaar hai, jo Euro ke liye mazeed mushkilat paida kar rahi hai. Hal hi mein aye maeeshati data ne maeeshati sar-garmi mein maamooli behtari ka izhaar kiya, khas tor par France mein Paris Olympics ki wajah se, magar yeh izafa mawamlaat waqt tak mehdood samjha jata hai. Eurozone ki maeeshati soorat-e-haal ke hawalay se ab bhi ehtiyat pasandi ka rawaiya hai, kamzor nuqta nazar ke saath jo karansi par dabao daal raha hai. ECB ke aham shaksiyat, iske ahdaaydar, is shay par tawajjoh dein hain ke afraat-e-zar par qaabu paane ki jari koshishain aakhir kar mein kaamyaab hongi ya nahi. Is ghair yaqiniyat ke saath, tajaray apni soch mein yeh mansoobay shamil kar rahe hain. Iske ilawa, European Union ki Main Refinancing Rate ki jari karwai is Jumairat ko mazeed bazaar mein utar chadhav la sakti hai, kyunke yeh sood ki sharah ECB ke mustaqbil ki maali policies ke hawalay se mazeed asharaat faraham karegi.

EUR/USD Technical Overview:

Technical tor par, EUR/USD aik ahem nuqtay par trade kar raha hai. Yeh jori aik ahem support level 1.1010 se neeche gir gayi hai, jo bazaar mein kamzori ki nishandahi karta hai. Kai technical indicators, jin mein Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) aur Relative Strength Index (RSI) shamil hain, bearish trend ki taraf ishara kar rahe hain. Yeh is baat ki dalalat karta hai ke bazaar qareeb waqt mein neeche ki taraf chal sakta hai. Agar yeh jori mazeed girti hai, toh agla ahem support level 1.0999 ke aas-paas hai, aik psychological had hai jo agar toot jaye toh mazeed bechne aur mumkin tor par qeemat mein mazeed tezi se girawat ka sabab ban sakta hai Iske bawajood, kuch tajaray aik muktasar upar ki taraf islah ki mumkinat ka intezaar kar rahe hain. Yeh is liye hai kyunke qeemat abhi bhi aham moving averages, maslan 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), ke kareeb hai, aur wahan se aik choti si bounce ho sakti hai is se pehle ke qeemat dobara neeche ki taraf apni rujhaan mein lautay. Abhi ke liye, qeemat apni haftawari range se neeche trade ho rahi hai aur tajaray ECB ke sood ki sharah ke faislay se pehle short-selling ke mauqay dhoond rahe hain. Agar qeemat 1.1003 se wapas uthti hai, toh yeh 1.11339 tak barh sakti hai. Iske baraks, agar bearish pressure khabron ke baad bhi qayim rehta hai, toh yeh jori 1.08739 ke level ki taraf ja sakti hai. Is liye, tajaray in ahem nuqtay par bariki se nazar rakh rahe hain aur aane wali taja tor par apni position adjust kar rahe hain

EUR/USD pair ne Wednesday ko kya kiya? Yeh apne upward movement ko continue kiya. Din bhar mein, sirf ek report publish hui thi Nonfarm Payrolls ki annual revision ke bare mein, jo ki forecasts se bhi worse nikli. Asal mein, agar yeh expected se better bhi hoti, toh dollar phir bhi fall karta. Monday aur Tuesday ko, dollar ko macroeconomic backdrop ki zaroorat nahi thi apne decline ko sustain karne ke liye. Toh, yeh kehna mushkil nahi hai ki U.S. labor market ke ek aur weak report ne U.S. currency ko further fall kar diya. Lekin, U.S. dollar daily fall raha hai, regardless of these reports, aur correct bhi nahi kar pa raha hai.
Nonfarm Payrolls report previously published reports ki correction nahi hai; yeh sirf annual figure ki adjustment hai. Market ne pehle weaker monthly reports ko account kiya, phir annual one ko, jo ki essentially same data ko reflect karta hai. Abhi traders ko sirf ek sawal puchna chahiye ki yeh relentless rise kab tak continue karega. Upside par trading easy, simple, aur convenient lagta hai, lekin sirf first glance par, kyunki traders likely samajhte hain ki euro almost out of the blue rise kar raha hai. Isliye, yeh movement kisi bhi moment par end ho sakta hai. Currency ko buy karna jab aapko nahi pata ki yeh kyun rise kar raha hai, yeh pleasant task nahi hai. Phir bhi, uptrend ke ending ke signs nahi hain, price continue rise kar sakti hai 1.1185 aur 1.1234 ke targets ke sath.
Wednesday ko, sirf ek trading signal forma hua - U.S. trading session mein 1.1137 level surpass hua. Din ke end par, euro sirf 15 pips rise kiya, lekin volatility currently low hai, aur movement one-sided hai. Yeh trade Thursday tak hold ki ja sakti hai 1.1185 ke target ke sath.



EUR/USD hourly time frame mein steady aur measured upward movement sustain kar raha hai. Last week, new U.S. inflation reports ne market ko dollar ko sell karne ka ek aur reason diya. Is week, market Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell se dovish rhetoric expect kar raha hai. Market har available opportunity ko seize kar raha hai dollar ko sell karne ke liye. Ab humare paas do ascending trendlines hain, jo ki euro ko support kar rahe hain. General mein, koi bhi indicators currently suggest nahi kar rahe hain ki uptrend end ho raha ha
EUR/USD ka next target strong seller supply resistance area 1.1245-1.1250 tak pohnch sakta hai. Moving Average ko trend strength monitor karne ke liye use karna bohat effective strategy hai, especially jab resistance aur support levels ko identify karna ho. Pending order buy stop aur sell stop strategy bhi agle hafte ke price movements ko anticipate karne ke liye acha plan