یورپی ڈالر بمقابلہ امریکی ڈالر

• Monday ko EUR/USD ka movement kaafi violent tha, jismein yeh currency pair takreeban 75 pip move hua. Yeh movement is liye dekha gaya kyun ke high-impact news release hui thi, jiss ki wajah se Euro ki value US dollar ke muqablay mein gir gayi. Pehle Euro ka movement sideways tha, lekin candle 1.1180 ke qareebi barrier ko torhne mein naakaam rahi aur wapis 1.1088 ke price par aa gayi. Jab hum analysis kar rahe thay, EUR/USD mein thori si recovery dekhi gayi, lekin mujhe lagta hai yeh ek temporary phenomenon tha. Agar H1 timeframe ka analysis kiya jaye, tou ab bhi yeh mumkin hai ke EUR/USD mazeed neeche jaaye jab tak ke supply area 1.1187 ko upar se break nahi kiya jata. Mere khayal mein agar koi rise hoti hai tou woh sirf ek correction ho sakti hai. Resistance ka sabse mota layer abhi torhna mushkil lagta hai. Candle ko mazeed girne ke liye H1 support 1.1088 ke price ko break karna hoga. Abhi ke liye, candle SBR region 1.1132 ko cross karne mein naakaam rahi hai, aur EUR/USD ke decline ki tayari lag rahi hai. Shayad retracement ya price bounce ho sakta hai is se pehle ke EUR/USD phir se giray. Ichimoku indicator ki madad se agar analysis kiya jaye, tou tenkan aur kijun sen lines intersect kar chuki hain, jo ke yeh signal de rahi hain ke EUR/USD ka downtrend shuru ho chuka hai. Candle ki position ab line ke neeche move kar gayi hai, jo ke bearish trend ka ishara hai. Is waqt, ichimoku signal kehti hai ke euro jaldi kamzor ho sakta hai, aur candle ne kumo cloud ko bhi cross kar liya hai. Stochastic indicator ke mutabiq, EUR/USD abhi ke liye almost oversold state mein hai kyun ke candle apne lowest level ke qareeb hai, jo ke 20 hai. Jab tak stochastic line neeche ki taraf point kar rahi hai, EUR/USD ka movement decline karta rahega, lekin aapko hoshiyaar rehna hoga kyun ke yeh kabhi bhi upar ja sakti hai.

**Market Analysis**
Aakhri teen dino mein, bazaar sirf daily demand aur supply lines ke darmiyan MA5/MA10 ke low aur high ke ird gird hi ghoom raha hai, jo ke daily chart par neela nishaan lagaya gaya hai. Yeh halat aage chal kar sideway movement ko janam de sakti hai. Iska sabab yeh hai ke USD abhi tak puri tarah se kamzor ya mixed nahi hua, is liye correlation abhi tak itni gehri nahi hui. Hum is surat-e-haal ko ek achhi trading opportunity ke tor par istemal kar sakte hain, lekin is se milne wala munafa zyada nahi hoga. Aise market conditions mein "sell on strength" aur "buy on weakness" strategies ko kafi behtar taur par istemal kiya ja sakta hai.

Aaj ka candlestick bilkul 1.1100 - 1.1080 ke lowest daily average price ke area mein hai. Agar aap left taraf price history ko dekhein, to is price level par hamesha bohat zyada demand hoti hai. Forex market ke volume ke barhne par yeh phir se ho sakta hai. Traders ko chahiye ke wo is daily chart analysis ke buniyad par buy trading options kholne ke liye apne plans tayar karein, lekin ek tafseeli plan ke liye chhote timeframe jaise H1 aur H4 ka istemal bhi kar sakte hain.

H1 intraday basis par, yeh buy plan ko support nahi karta jo ke D1 timeframe par hai, kyunki price position puri tarah se Red EMA200 ke neeche hai aur is ka agla support ki taraf girne ka bohot zyada potential hai. Intraday data ka istemal karte hue, do key levels ka pata chala hai jo strong trading signals dhoondne ke liye istemal kiye ja sakte hain, yani green resistance 1.1144 aur yellow support 1.1083. In dono ka toarna agle downtrend movements ko janam de sakta hai. Lekin agar aap pichle bearish candle ki size par nazar dalen jo market ko drive kiya, to sell trading option yahan mukhya chunaav hoga.
**Trading Scenario**

Aam tor par, EURUSD market mein daily timeframe par wedge pattern banne ki salahiyat hai, is liye ismein kaafi waqt lagega. Is wedge pattern ke asraat limited movements par honge, is liye traders ko zyada faida hasil karne ka aim nahi rakhna chahiye. Upar ki analysis ke mutabiq, mere paas kuch short-term trading options hain jo H1 basis par hain:

1. **Sell Limit**: Green resistance 1.1133 - 1.1144 par, SL 1.1154 aur TP 1.1095 ke sath.
2. **Buy Limit**: Yellow support 1.1095 - 1.1085 par, SL 1.1075 ke sath.

EUR/USD

Euro, jo ke abhi major currencies ke muqable mein underperform kar raha hai, ne Wednesday ki New York trading session ke dauran apne recent highs 1.1055 se significant decline dekha. Market sentiment abhi zyada ter ECB ke September mein ek aur interest rate cut ki umeed ke asar mein hai. Is move ke anticipation ne intensity gain ki hai jab inflation rates gir rahe hain, jo ke yeh suggest karta hai ke yeh rate-cutting cycle September ke baad bhi barh sakta hai. Abhi spot price 1.1016 ke aas-paas trade kar raha hai.

ECB ke potential interest rate decisions ka andaza lagane ke liye investors German aur Eurozone HICP data ka closely jaiza lenge jo Thursday aur Friday ko release honge. Analysts expect karte hain ke Eurozone ka annual headline HICP, jo ke overall inflation ko measure karta hai, 2.3% tak decelerate karega, jab ke core HICP, jo ke volatile items ko exclude karta hai, 2.8% tak moderate hoga.

**EUR/USD ke fundamentals:**ECB ke aur zyada interest rate cuts ki umeed badh gayi hai Eurozone ke economic outlook aur wage growth slowdown ke hawale se barhati hui uncertainties ki wajah se. Hiraan kun baat yeh hai ke Eurozone ki economic activity August mein unexpected upar gayi, flash HCOB PMI report ke mutabiq. Magar yeh uptick ziada ter France mein Olympic Games ki wajah se aayi demand ki wajah se hua. Economists isay temporary boost samajhte hain, naa ke kisi fundamental economic change ko.

ECB ke Chief Economist Philip Lane ne JH Symposium ke dauran Saturday ko yeh kaha ke restrictive monetary policy ki zarurat hai. Lane ne inflation ke khilaf ladai mein ki gayi taraqqi ko acknowledge kiya, magar yeh bhi kaha ke lambi muddat tak success ka koi yaqeen nahi hai. Unki baat ne ECB ke inflationary pressures ko manage karne aur market expectations ko guide karne ke challenges ko ujagar kiya.

**Daily Time Frame Technical Outlook:**

Wednesday ko pair 1.1010 level ke neeche slip kar gaya jab buyers ko upward momentum banaye rakhne mein mushkil hui. Pair abhi 50-day EMA ke upar trade kar raha hai, jo ke 1.0962 par hai, magar agar decline jari rehta hai to price 20-day EMA ke paas wapas aa sakti hai, jo ke 1.1050 ke qareeb hai. EUR/USD buyers ke liye resistance 14-day SMA par 1.1026 ke aas-paas dekhi ja sakti hai.

Pair ko 1.1000 ke crucial psychological level ke breach hone ka khatra hai. Technical indicators jaise ke MACD aur RSI bearish outlook ki taraf ishara karte hain. Agar downward momentum barqarar rehti hai, to traders ko apni positions ka jaiza lena hoga aur potential reversals ke liye hoshiyaar rehna hoga

Price puri European trading session mein stagnant rahi, aur phir US session ke aghaz par ek jazbaati tezi expected thi. Us waqt, US ne NonFarm Payrolls, unemployment rates, aur average earnings ke reports publish kiye. In reports ko wazeh tor par interpreter karna mushkil tha kyun ke unemployment rate thoda kam hua magar forecast ke andar hi raha; NonFarms ki tadaad forecast se thodi kam thi magar pehli value se zyada thi; wages mein izafa hua, jo ke Federal Reserve ke taraf se monetary policy ke aggressive easing ke chances ko kuch kam karta hai. Market ne in data ko “shara'iti tor par positive” samjha, aur dollar thoda barh gaya. Lekin yeh reports dollar ke liye koi khaas achay prospects nahi kholte. Labor market aur unemployment ke data ab bhi umeedon par pura nahi utarte, jo ke Fed ko kam az kam ek ya do dafa key rate kam karne par majboor karenge. Market ne in "ek ya do dafa" ke rate cuts ko pehle hi price mein shamil kar liya hai, magar ab bhi zyadatar aggressive policy easing ka intezar kar raha hai. Jumay ko 5-minute time frame par pehle poori flat thi, phir turbulence dekha gaya. US trading session ke dauran, naye traders sirf do sell signals par kaam kar sakte thay jo ke level 1.1132 ke qareeb aaye, kyun ke yeh sabse accurate thay. Magar macroeconomic background ka asar kafi zyada tha, toh 1.1132 ka level surpass ho sakta tha. 1.1091 ke level par ek hi waqt mein chaar trading signals bane, magar sabhi inaccurate aur contradictory thay. **Monday ko kaise trade karein:** Hourly time frame par, EUR/USD pair ne apni ascending trend line ke neeche consolidation ki hai, aur pehli dafa bohat arsay baad ek downward trend banane ka mauqa hai jo logical aur tamam analysis factors ke mutabiq hoga. Lekin afsos ke sath, illogical dollar sales jaldi se dobara shuru ho sakti hain downward correction ke baad, kyun ke kisi ko nahi pata ke market kab tak Fed ki monetary policy easing ko price mein shamil karta rahega, jo ke ab tak shuru nahi hui. Market ab tak takreeban tamam aane wale rate cuts ko price mein shamil kar raha hai

**EUR/USD Technical Outlook**

EUR/USD is filhal 1.1120 par trade kar raha hai. Price ne downward trend mein close kiya hai. Zigzag pattern ek opposite trend dikhata hai. Humne 100 SMA, 50 SMA, aur 20 SMA simple moving averages ko draw kiya hai. 1.1135 par 50-day moving average price ko hit kar raha hai. Agar upside movement hoti hai, to ye baaki moving averages (100-20 SMA) ko paar karega, jo resistance lines ke tor par 1.1170 aur 1.1185 par hain. Bullish trend ka aane ke liye, resistance levels 1.1150 aur 1.1155 ko todna hoga. Is taraf bearishness ka asar primary support level 1.1080 tak pahuncha sakta hai aur phir second support level 1.1050 par aa sakta hai.

RSI-14 indicator abhi 47.90 par hai, jo oversold level se upar hai. Mom (14) oscillator 98.80 par price decline ka signal de raha hai. EUR/USD ne H4 time frame par triangle model ke mutabiq correction ki hai. Is surat mein market mein enter karna munasib nahi hai. Trading se pehle price chart ka jaiza lena aur ready-made forecasts ka mutala karna zaroori hai.

EUR/USD ka technical picture H4 time frame par dikhata hai ke current price 1.1075 hai. RSI is couple ki movement ke bare mein clear signals nahi de raha. Alligator indicator ke mutabiq, lines intertwined hain, jo flat market ko dikhata hai. Couple cloud ke andar trade kar raha hai, jo sideways movement ko darshata hai. Is halat mein switch karna behtar nahi hai. Agar is pair mein enter karne ki koi khaas wajah hai, to sabr karein aur flat se nikalne ka intazaar karein, phir technical analysis karke entry lein.

Trading mein hamesha market ke current trends aur conditions par nazar rakhna chahiye. Aakhir mein, patience aur careful analysis se hi behtareen decisions liye ja sakte hain. Market ki volatility aur price movements ko samajhna ahem hai, taake trading ke dauran kisi bhi potential risk se bacha ja sake.

surprising nahi hai kyun ke Eurozone ya U.S. mein koi macroeconomic ya fundamental factors nahi the kal. Sirf Germany ka August ke liye Consumer Price Index ka doosra estimate publish hua. Jis tarah expected tha, doosra estimate pehle waale se mukhtalif nahi tha. Aaj ka sab se important U.S. inflation report release hoga, aur kal European Central Bank ki meeting hai. Ye samajhna aasan hai ke market trading decisions lene mein jaldi nahi kar raha. Downward trend barkarar hai lekin bohot unstable hai, jaise ke hum pehle bhi mention kar chuke hain. Agar U.S. inflation forecast se kam value dikhata hai, to dollar asani se aur jaldi se gir sakta hai. Hum believe karte hain ke euro ko significant tor pe lambi muddat tak girna chahiye, lekin abhi tak hum puri tarah sure nahi hain ke market ne Federal Reserve ke agli do saal ke liye planned rate cuts ko fully price-in kiya hai ya nahi. Tuesday ko sirf ek trading signal generate hua 5-minute time frame mein. European trading session ke start mein, price ne 1.1048 level se rebound kiya, us ke baad price ne 15-20 pips ka downward move kiya. Volatility bohot kamzor thi. Phir bhi, novice traders ne is trade se thoda profit bana liya hoga, aur 35-pip

Monday ko EUR/USD ka movement kaafi violent tha, jismein yeh currency pair takreeban 75 pip move hua. Yeh movement is liye dekha gaya kyun ke high-impact news release hui thi, jiss ki wajah se Euro ki value US dollar ke muqablay mein gir gayi. Pehle Euro ka movement sideways tha, lekin candle 1.1180 ke qareebi barrier ko torhne mein naakaam rahi aur wapis 1.1088 ke price par aa gayi. Jab hum analysis kar rahe thay, EUR/USD mein thori si recovery dekhi gayi, lekin mujhe lagta hai yeh ek temporary phenomenon tha. Agar H1 timeframe ka analysis kiya jaye, tou ab bhi yeh mumkin hai ke EUR/USD mazeed neeche jaaye jab tak ke supply area 1.1187 ko upar se break nahi kiya jata. Mere khayal mein agar koi rise hoti hai tou woh sirf ek correction ho sakti hai. Resistance ka sabse mota layer abhi torhna mushkil lagta hai. Candle ko mazeed girne ke liye H1 support 1.1088 ke price ko break karna hoga. Abhi ke liye, candle SBR region 1.1132 ko cross karne mein naakaam rahi hai, aur EUR/USD ke decline ki tayari lag rahi hai. Shayad retracement ya price bounce ho sakta hai is se pehle ke EUR/USD phir se giray. Ichimoku indicator ki madad se agar analysis kiya jaye, tou tenkan aur kijun sen lines intersect kar chuki hain, jo ke yeh signal de rahi hain ke EUR/USD ka downtrend shuru ho chuka hai. Candle ki position ab line ke neeche move kar gayi hai, jo ke bearish trend ka ishara hai. Is waqt, ichimoku signal kehti hai ke euro jaldi kamzor ho sakta hai, aur candle ne kumo cloud ko bhi cross kar liya hai. Stochastic indicator ke mutabiq, EUR/USD abhi ke liye almost oversold state mein hai kyun ke candle apne lowest level ke qareeb hai, jo ke 20 hai. Jab tak stochastic line neeche ki taraf point kar rahi hai, EUR/USD ka movement decline karta rahega, lekin aapko hoshiyaar rehna hoga kyun

Monday ko EUR/USD ka movement kaafi violent tha, jismein yeh currency pair takreeban 75 pip move hua. Yeh movement is liye dekha gaya kyun ke high-impact news release hui thi, jiss ki wajah se Euro ki value US dollar ke muqablay mein gir gayi. Pehle Euro ka movement sideways tha, lekin candle 1.1180 ke qareebi barrier ko torhne mein naakaam rahi aur wapis 1.1088 ke price par aa gayi. Jab hum analysis kar rahe thay, EUR/USD mein thori si recovery dekhi gayi, lekin mujhe lagta hai yeh ek temporary phenomenon tha. Agar H1 timeframe ka analysis kiya jaye, tou ab bhi yeh mumkin hai ke EUR/USD mazeed neeche jaaye jab tak ke supply area 1.1187 ko upar se break nahi kiya jata. Mere khayal mein agar koi rise hoti hai tou woh sirf ek correction ho sakti hai. Resistance ka sabse mota layer abhi torhna mushkil lagta hai. Candle ko mazeed girne ke liye H1 support 1.1088 ke price ko break karna hoga. Abhi ke liye, candle SBR region 1.1132 ko cross karne mein naakaam rahi hai, aur EUR/USD ke decline ki tayari lag rahi hai. Shayad retracement ya price bounce ho sakta hai is se pehle ke EUR/USD phir se giray. Ichimoku indicator ki madad se agar analysis kiya jaye, tou tenkan aur kijun sen lines intersect kar chuki hain, jo ke yeh signal de rahi hain ke EUR/USD ka downtrend shuru ho chuka hai. Candle ki position ab line ke neeche move kar gayi hai, jo ke bearish trend ka ishara hai. Is waqt, ichimoku signal kehti hai ke euro jaldi kamzor ho sakta hai, aur candle ne kumo cloud ko bhi cross kar liya hai. Stochastic indicator ke mutabiq, EUR/USD abhi ke liye almost oversold state mein hai kyun ke candle apne lowest level ke qareeb hai, jo ke 20 hai. Jab tak stochastic line neeche ki taraf point kar rahi hai, EUR/USD ka movement decline karta rahega, lekin aapko hoshiyaar rehna hoga kyun ke yeh kabhi bhi upar ja sakti hai

positions mazbooti se barqarar rakhe hue hain, aur lagta hai ke filhaal wapas janay ka koi iraada nahi. Price 1.1068 par 25% support ko break kar chuki hai aur ab 1/1 angle ke upar hai. Mera khayal hai ke bears is level ko target karenge. Main yeh bhi maan raha hoon ke ek temporary upward correction ho sakta hai. EMA (13/5) aur MACD indicators sell ka ishara de rahe hain, jo ke yeh dikhata hai ke consolidation ke baad ek bearish move ho sakta hai. Indicators yeh batate hain ke exchange rate ghat kar 1.0999 tak ja sakta hai recent breakdown ke baad. Koi significant tabdeeli nazar nahi aa rahi; euro abhi bhi sideways trade kar raha hai, jo ek choti red body wali candle se zahir hai. Wednesday ko EUR/USD pair mein kaafi calm trading thi, halanke U.S. inflation report ko "super-important" samjha ja raha tha. Humne weekend par is report ko "event of the week" kaha tha, magar kuch traders ka reaction hairan kun tha. Mukhtasir mein, dollar bara halanke inflation 2.5% tak gir gayi thi. Pehle har dafa U.S. inflation ke reports se dollar girta tha, chahe report forecast ke baraks hoti ya na hoti, bas inflation girne se

ستمبر 24 2024 کو یورو/امریکی ڈالر کی پیش گوئی

کل کے یورو زون کاروباری سرگرمی کا ڈیٹا ستمبر میں مایوسی کا شکار ہوا۔ مینوفیکچرنگ پی ایم آئی 45.8 سے 44.8 تک کمزور ہوگئی ، جبکہ خدمات پی ایم آئی نے پچھلے مہینے 52.9 کے مقابلے میں 50.5 دکھایا۔ تمام اشاریے پیشن گوئی سے زیادہ کمزور تھے۔ مارکیٹ نے ایک کمزور معیشت ، کم افراط زر ، اور مستحکم مالیاتی پالیسی میں نرمی کے امکانات کے بارے میں بات کرنا شروع کردی۔ یورو نے 50 پپس کو کھوتے ہوئے اس زوال کی راہنمائی کی۔



ڈیلی ٹائم فریم پر بیلنس لائن کا اشارے قیمت میں کمی کو روک رہا ہے۔ قیمت 1.1076 پر سپورٹ لیول پر حملہ کرنے کی کوشش کر رہی ہے۔ ایک بار جب اس سطح کی خلاف ورزی ہوجائے تو ، قیمت کو ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. لائن (1.1033) کی حمایت سے مقابلہ کرنا پڑے گا۔ اس میں کامیابی یورو کے لئے درمیانی مدت کے زوال کے آغاز کی نشاندہی کرے گی ، جس کا پہلا ہدف 1.0882 پر ہوگا ، تقریبا قیمت چینل کی ایمبیڈڈ لائن کے ساتھ چوراہے کے مقام پر۔

چار گھنٹے کے چارٹ پر ، قیمت بیلنس لائن کے نیچے مستحکم ہوگئی ہے۔ قیمت کو 1.1078 اور ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. لائن پر سپورٹ لیول کے ساتھ مقابلہ کرنا ہوگا کیونکہ یہ مارلن آسیلیٹر کی پیروی کرتا ہے۔ یہ مضبوط حمایت ہے ، اور قیمت سے متعلقہ مارکیٹوں سے مدد کی ضرورت ہوگی۔ اب تک ، ان متعلقہ مارکیٹوں میں تیل کم ہورہا ہے۔



.تعینات کیا مراد ہے مارکیٹ کے تجزیات یہاں ارسال کیے جاتے ہیں جس کا مقصد آپ کی بیداری بڑھانا ہے، لیکن تجارت کرنے کے لئے ہدایات دینا نہیں*

**EUR/USD Price Dynamics ka Jaiza**

Aaj hum live EUR/USD currency pair ki pricing movements ka jaiza le rahe hain. Hafte ki shuruaat bina kisi surprise ke hui hai, aur ab tak yeh wahi level par hai. Koi driver zaroori hai taake market mein kuch harkat ho, kam az kam kisi wajah se. Mujhe nahi pata ke aaj Europe aur US mein business activity indices ki publications is tarah ka driver banengi ya nahi. Aakhri Fed meeting ko kafi chaotically kaha ja sakta hai, jahan Jerome Powell ne apne behtareen andaaz mein kuch khas clarity diye baghair baatein ki, jisse financial markets ek din mein 200 points gir gaye. Yeh itna waqt ho gaya hai ke aisa nahi hua, aur mujhe yaad hai ke maine 1.1182-1.1187 ke range se limit order ka zikr kiya tha.

EUR/USD currency pair par Ichimoku indicator apni taqat dikhata hai, jo market ke 1.1158 par hone se zahir hota hai, jo Senkou Span A 1.1139 aur Senkou Span B 1.1128 lines ke levels se upar hai.

Overall, aaj ke liye koi khaas priorities nahi hain. Neeche debt levels hain, aur agar mujhe 1.1230 se bechne ka mauka mile, to yeh behtareen hoga. Mujhe lagta hai ke buyers ke paas mauka hai ke jaldi se 1.1228 ke northern resistance line tak pohanch sakein, kyunki end tak 1.1289 par nazar rakhni hogi. Main indicators upar ki taraf ishara kar rahe hain, aur price MA72 trend line se upar hai, jahan volume unloading aksar hoti hai.

Daily period par dekha jaye to lagta hai ke EUR/USD ke upar chadhai ka pressure hai, aur yeh trend tab tak jari rahega jab tak hum appreciation ke liye range se bahar nahi nikalte. Isliye, main recommend karta hoon ke har decline par support se kharidari karein jab tak hum 1.1047 ke level se upar hain. Agar price girti hai, to main khushi se 1.1085-1.1100 se kharidne ke liye tayyar hoon.

Zyada tar, hamari trading is hafte mein ek range mein chalu rahegi; bas yeh corridor ko kafi widen kiya jayega. Is liye, traders ko market ki movements par nazar rakhni hogi, taake wo apne trading strategies ko behtar bana sakein.

EUR/USD currency pair abhi apni recent kamyabi ko barqarar rakhne mein mushkil ka samna kar rahi hai. Do din tak positive movement ke baad, yeh pair US session ke dauran ek narrow trading band mein oscillate kar rahi hai. Abhi ke liye spot prices 1.1180 ke critical level ke thoda upar hain aur lagbhag unchanged hain jabke dealers US ki ahem economic data ka intezar kar rahe hain. Aakhri update ke mutabiq, EUR/USD takriban 1.1140 ke aas paas trade kar rahi hai.
Aage dekhte hue, Euro ke bulls ka focus kuch ahem resistance levels par hai, jisme 1.1200 ka recent high aur July 2023 ka 1.1276 peak shamil hain. Doosri taraf, 1.1100 ka psychological support level neeche ki taraf movement ke khilaf ek barrier ke tor par kaam kar sakta hai. Yeh resistance aur support levels ka balance near-term mein pair ki performance ke liye ihtiyat pasand optimism ko zahir karta hai.

### EUR/USD ke Fundamentals
Haal hi mein aaye data ne Eurozone ki economic challenges ko ujagar kiya hai, khaaskar uski do bari economies mein. Germany ki industrial production mein July mein 2.4% ki significant girawat aayi, jo expected sirf 0.3% decline ke muqable mein thi. France ne bhi ek downtrend report kiya, jisme industrial output 0.5% se kam hui. Yeh disappointing numbers bearish outlook ko faroogh dete hain, jaise ke Reuters ke ek survey mein dikhaya gaya jo August 30 se September 5 tak conduct hua, jisme 85% economists ne anticipate kiya ke European Central Bank (ECB) aane wale meetings mein interest rate cuts apply karegi.

In economic challenges ko madde nazar rakhte hue, kai ECB officials market ke potential interest rate cuts ke hawale se comfortable nazar aa rahe hain. ECB Executive Board ke member Piero Cipollone ne ek interview mein is khauf ka izhar kiya ke "ECB ka stance bohat zyada restrictive ho sakta hai." Yeh jazba Eurozone ki economic situation par badhne wali fikr ko zahir karta hai aur monetary policy mein ek shift ke imkaan ko faroogh deta hai.

### Continual Time Frame Technical Outlook
1.1150 level ke upar earnings ko barqarar rakhne mein nakami ke bawajood, EUR/USD ka near-term outlook ihtiyaat ke saath optimistic lag raha hai. Pair ne 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke paas support establish kiya hai, jo ke lagbhag 1.1157 par hai. Iske ilawa, longer-term indicators jaise 50-day aur 100-day EMAs, jo 1.1144 aur 1.1135 par hain, upward trend dikhate hain, jo future growth ka imkaan zahir karta hai. Iske ilawa, currency pair hourly chart par Rising Channel mein apni position barqarar rakhti hai, jo positive momentum ko zahir karta hai.

Technical indicators EUR/USD ke liye ek mixed picture paint karte hain. 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) 60.00 mark ke neeche aa gaya hai, jabke is se pehle yeh overbought status par 75.00 ke kareeb tha. Yeh decline is baat ka ishara karta hai ke momentum thanda ho sakta hai, jo traders ko upcoming economic data aur market developments ke hawale se apni positions dobara assess karne par majboor kar sakta hai.

Price puri European trading session mein stagnant rahi, aur phir US session ke aghaz par ek jazbaati tezi expected thi. Us waqt, US ne NonFarm Payrolls, unemployment rates, aur average earnings ke reports publish kiye. In reports ko wazeh tor par interpreter karna mushkil tha kyun ke unemployment rate thoda kam hua magar forecast ke andar hi raha; NonFarms ki tadaad forecast se thodi kam thi magar pehli value se zyada thi; wages mein izafa hua, jo ke Federal Reserve ke taraf se monetary policy ke aggressive easing ke chances ko kuch kam karta hai. Market ne in data ko “shara'iti tor par positive” samjha, aur dollar thoda barh gaya. Lekin yeh reports dollar ke liye koi khaas achay prospects nahi kholte. Labor market aur unemployment ke data ab bhi umeedon par pura nahi utarte, jo ke Fed ko kam az kam ek ya do dafa key rate kam karne par majboor karenge. Market ne in "ek ya do dafa" ke rate cuts ko pehle hi price mein shamil kar liya hai, magar ab bhi zyadatar aggressive policy easing ka intezar kar raha hai. Jumay ko 5-minute time frame par pehle poori flat thi, phir turbulence dekha gaya. US trading session ke dauran, naye traders sirf do sell signals par kaam kar sakte thay jo ke level 1.1132 ke qareeb aaye, kyun ke yeh sabse accurate thay. Magar macroeconomic background ka asar kafi zyada tha, toh 1.1132 ka level surpass ho sakta tha. 1.1091 ke level par ek hi waqt mein chaar trading signals bane, magar sabhi inaccurate aur contradictory thay. **Monday ko kaise trade karein:** Hourly time frame par, EUR/USD pair ne apni ascending trend line ke neeche consolidation ki hai, aur pehli dafa bohat arsay baad ek downward trend banane ka mauqa hai jo logical aur tamam analysis factors ke mutabiq hoga. Lekin afsos ke sath, illogical dollar sales jaldi se dobara shuru ho sakti hain downward correction ke baad, kyun ke kisi ko nahi pata ke market kab tak Fed ki monetary policy easing ko price mein shamil karta rahega, jo ke ab tak shuru nahi hui. Market ab tak takreeban tamam aane wale rate cuts ko price mein shamil kar raha hai

Mera ye andaza tha ke din mein upar ki taraf harqat hogi aur yeh Thursday ke price action par mabni tha, jab euro ne 1.11322 ke resistance level ko tor diya tha aur 1.11934 ke resistance ke qareeb band hua tha. Is buniyad par, maine umeed ki thi ke price barhti rahegi aur oonche levels ki taraf jaayegi. Lekin market ne is raaste par nahi chali, aur mera Monday ka forecast bhi mutabiq nahi raha. Maine yeh peishgoi ki thi ke 1.12560 ke level tak aur barhna chahiye kyunki price ne 1.11934 ke resistance ko sahi tareeke se test nahi kiya tha. Yeh lag raha tha ke market mein upar ki momentum barh rahi hai, aur maine umeed ki thi ke market is push ko jaari rakhegi. Lekin, meri peishgoi ke bar'aks, jumme ke din ka price action is baat par khatam hua ke euro ne wahi price level par close kiya jahan se din ka aghaz kiya tha. Mera jo barhne ka forecast tha, uske bajaye market ne consolidation dekhi, aur ab lagta hai ke price neeche gir rahi hai.

Abhi ke liye, euro ne 1.11322 ke ahem support level ko tod diya hai, jo pehle resistance tha. Is girawat ke sath, pair ab agle bade support level 1.10603 ki taraf barh rahi hai. Yeh neeche ki harakat market mein ek significant pullback ko dikhati hai, kyunki selling pressure barh gaya hai. Iss stage par price ab tak wapas nahi uthi, aur yeh dekhna zaroori hai ke market in ahem levels ke ird gird kaisa react karti hai.

Chhoti muddat ke liye, 1.11322 ka level ab ek key zone hai jis par focus karna chahiye. Agar price aaj ke trading session ke aakhir mein is level se upar close karti hai, to yeh is baat ka ishara hoga ke buyers market mein waapis aa rahe hain, jo meri pehle wali forecast ko support karega ke 1.12560 ke level tak barh sakti hai. Agar price 1.11322 ke upar close karti hai, to yeh naye bullish momentum ka signal hoga, aur market upar ki taraf jaa sakti hai jahan resistance levels ko dobara test kiya ja sakta hai.

Lekin agar price aaj 1.11322 ke level se neeche close hoti hai, to yeh koi bhi nazdeek muddat ka bullish outlook khatam kar dega. Is surat mein, girawat ka imkana barh jayega, aur market agle significant support 1.10603 ki taraf girti rahegi. Agar price 1.11322 ke neeche close hoti hai, to yeh is baat ka ishara hoga ke sellers ab bhi control mein hain

Nukhsan ke khatrey barh gaye hain, pehla support 1.1508 toot gaya hai. Halankeh 1.1431 ek mazboot support hai, lekin mujhe umeed hai ke 1.1411 tak girawat hogi. Iske ilawa, 1.1301 par haal ke low ko test karne ka bhi khatara hai.
Sirf agar 1.1625 se upar wapas aaya gaya to chart neutral hoga aur 1.1790 / 1.1815 ke ilake tak barh sakta hai. Main abhi bhi sochta hoon ke euro darmiyani muddat mein barhega, lekin abhi bhi kaam baqi hai.