ای AUD/USD کی تجزیہ اور مارکیٹ کے رجحانات

AUD/USD Ka Tajzia
Jab hum 2025 mein daakhil ho rahe hain, AUD/USD currency pair ko kafi zyada utar-chadhav ka samna hai. Iska sabab hai Australian Dollar aur US Dollar ke darmiyan chaltay jazbaati muqablay. Aaiye is pair ke movement ko samajne ke liye buniyadi aur technical analysis par ek nazar dalte hain.
Buniyadi Tajzia
Global Demand Mein Kami Ka Asar:
Australia Ki Commodity Pe Munhasir Economy: Australia ki economy ziada tar coal, iron ore aur natural gas jese commodities par depend karti hai. China, jo Australia ka sabse bara trading partner hai, ki economic challenges ki wajah se demand mein kami dekhi gayi hai. Iski wajah se Australian Dollar par dabao bara hai.
Commodity Prices Mein Girawat: Commodities ki qeemat mein girawat Australia ke trade balance ko kharab kar rahi hai. Kam export revenue ki wajah se AUD/USD ka rate neeche aa raha hai.
Technical Tajzia
Resistance Level - 0.6224:
AUD/USD pair ke liye 0.6224 ka resistance level mukammal rokawat ban raha hai. Agar ye level tor liya gaya to price 0.6250 ya 0.6300 tak ja sakta hai, magar us ke liye Australian Dollar ki demand barhni hogi.
Support Level - 0.6200:
Neeche ki taraf 0.6200 ka support level intehai ahem hai. Agar price is level ke neeche girta hai to 0.6180 aur 0.6150 ka level target ban sakte hain. Ye bearish sentiment ki nishani hogi.
AUD/USD pair ek nazuk surat-e-haal mein hai:
Bullish Scenario: Agar price 0.6224 ke level ko tor kar barh jata hai, to 0.6250 aur uske upar ke levels par price dekhne ko mil sakti hai. Lekin iske liye commodity prices mein recovery aur sentiment ka shift zaroori hai.
Bearish Scenario: Agar price 0.6200 ke neeche gir jata hai, to 0.6180 aur 0.6150 ke levels tak girawat jaari reh sakti hai.
Traders ko China ki economy, commodity prices aur central banks ki policies par nazar rakhni chahiye. Ye factors AUD/USD pair ke agle move ka taayun karenge.

جنوری 8 2025 کو اے یو ڈی/امریکی ڈالر کے لیے پیشن گوئی

ہفتہ وار چارٹ پر، قیمت لائٹ لیوینڈر پرائس چینل لائن کے قریب منڈلا رہی ہے۔ اس میں 158.66 کی سطح تک پہنچنے کی صلاحیت ہے، اگرچہ یہ کم ہو سکتا ہے۔



غور کرنے کا ایک اہم عنصر 17 جنوری کو تین فبونیکی ٹائم لائنوں کے کنورجن سے منسلک وقت ہے۔ آنے والے ویک اینڈ کو دیکھتے ہوئے، یہ 23-24 جنوری کے ساتھ مطابقت رکھتا ہے، جو بینک آف جاپان کی میٹنگ کے ساتھ موافق ہے۔ ہمیں یقین ہے کہ اس میٹنگ کے دوران، شرح میں اضافے یا کسی قسم کی مداخلت کے بارے میں کوئی اعلان ہو سکتا ہے۔ تکنیکی طور پر ان سطحوں سے قیمت کے الٹ جانے کا امکان ہے، جس کا ہدف 151.30 مقرر کیا گیا ہے، جو کہ 6 نومبر سے کم ہے۔

یومیہ چارٹ پر، قیمت 157.72 سے 158.32 کی حد میں مستحکم ہو رہی ہے۔ مارلن آسیلیٹر اوپر کی طرف حرکت کے آثار نہیں دکھا رہا ہے، حالانکہ یہ قیمت کے ساتھ کمزور ڈائیورژن بنا سکتا ہے۔

چار گھنٹے کے چارٹ پر، قیمت بیلنس لائن اور ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. لائن کے درمیان بھی مستحکم ہو رہی ہے، جو 157.72 سے 158.32 کی اسی حد کے اندر رہتی ہے۔ مارلن آسیلیٹر ایک طرف بڑھ رہا ہے۔ توقع ہے کہ یہ استحکام کچھ اور دنوں تک جاری رہے گا، ممکنہ طور پر دونوں سمتوں میں مختصر بریک آؤٹ نمایاں ہوں گے۔



تعینات کیا مراد ہے مارکیٹ کے تجزیات یہاں ارسال کیے جاتے ہیں جس کا مقصد آپ کی بیداری بڑھانا ہے، لیکن تجارت کرنے کے لئے ہدایات دینا نہیں*

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

RBA Data ki Waja se Australian Dollar ki Value mein Izafa ho Raha hai

Aaj Australia ka inflation report dovish nazriyat rakhne walon ke liye ek acha signal hai, jahan annual trimmed mean 3.5% se gir kar 3.2% y/y par aa gaya hai. Ye maazi ke 6 mahino mein 5 dafa gir chuka hai, aur ab RBA ke 2-3% inflation target se sirf 0.2 percentage points upar hai.
February Rate Cut Ke Chances Barhne Lage

• February rate cut ke chances ab 80% se zyada hain, jo Christmas se pehle RBA ke dovish minutes ke waqt 55% par the.
• Lekin February mein rate cut abhi bhi mushkil hai, kyun ke unemployment gir raha hai aur Trump administration ke inflationary asrat abhi mukammal samajh nahi aaye.
• RBA January 29 ko quarterly inflation figures ka intezar karega aur uske baad February cut ka faisla karega.
• Kamzor employment figures bhi turant action ka sabab ban sakte hain, magar abhi tak RBA apni “slow and steady” monetary policy ka rukh barqarar rakhe hue hai.

Australian Bond Yields Aur ASX 200 Ka Hal

• Australian bond yields across the curve neeche gir gaye, jahan 1-3 saal ke yields apne sabse buray din mein ~6 basis points gir gaye, 4 hafton mein sabse zyada girawat.
• ASX 200 ne FOMC high ke upar break kiya aur apne pachway bullish din ke raaste par hai.
• Pehle ke swing high call ko challenge karte huye, ye abhi bhi resistance ke kareeb hai.

AUD/USD Ki Position

• AUD/USD flat trade kar raha hai, jo shayad USD/CNH aur US dollar index ke sideways trade ke sabab se hai.
• Mera shak hai ke AUD/USD ke liye ek bounce ho sakta hai, kyun ke RBA cuts ke renewed calls ke bawajood ye kamzor hone se inkar kar raha hai.

Technical Analysis: AUD/USD

1. US session mein US jobless claims aur ADP employment change ka data US-Aussie interest rate differential par asar daal sakta hai.
2. Upbeat data: May Fed rate hike ke chances ko kam kar sakta hai, jo US dollar ke haq mein interest rate differential ko barhata hai.
3. Is scenario mein AUD/USD pair $0.61500 aur descending channel ke lower trend line ki taraf gir sakta hai.
4. Weaker-than-expected figures: March Fed rate cut ke bets ko trigger kar sakta hai, jo AUD/USD ko upper trend line aur $0.63 level ki taraf support kar sakta hai.

AUD/USD currency pair ne Tuesday ke early European trading session mein apni positive momentum regain ki, jo pehle din 0.6300 ke two-week high se temporarily neeche aayi thi. Is waqt ye pair 0.6285 ke aas-paas trade kar raha hai, jo US dollar ki thodi weakness ke wajah se support le raha hai. US Dollar Index (DXY), jo greenback ki strength ko measure karta hai, neeche hai, kyunke US President-elect ki tariff policies ko le kar uncertainty barh rahi hai. Washington Post ki reports ke mutabiq, administration ek targeted tariff approach consider kar rahi hai, jo sirf critical industries par focus karegi. Lekin, ye reports unhone social media par deny kar di, jisne market mein confusion barha di hai.
Federal Reserve (Fed) ne apni December policy meeting mein hawkish tone adopt ki, jo signal karta hai ke 2025 mein interest rate cuts ka pace slow ho sakta hai. Is hawkish stance aur geopolitical uncertainties ke saath, US Treasury yields barh sakti hain, jo dollar ko support de sakti hain. Lekin, US-China trade tensions ke concerns aur Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) ke dovish stance ke wajah se Australian dollar ki upside limited rehne ki umeed hai. Ye factors traders ko AUD/USD par bullish positions lene se rokte hain.
Market ab Fed ki policy meeting ka intezar kar raha hai, jahan speculation hai ke aane wale sessions mein bargain hunting ho sakti hai, khaas tor par jab prices 2023 ke lows 0.6269-0.6300 ke kareeb hoti hain. Technical indicators, jaise ke Relative Strength Index (RSI) aur Stochastic Oscillator, suggest karte hain ke recent sell-off overdone ho sakta hai, lekin abhi tak ye confirm nahi hua ke price oversold territory mein bottom kar chuka hai.
Agar 0.6200 ka support level break hota hai, toh AUD/USD aur neeche gir sakta hai, pehle 0.6100 aur phir 0.5980 tak, jo April 2020 ka significant low hai. Ye downward risks abhi bhi pair ki short-term direction ko influence karte rahenge.

H1 timeframe par technical analysis yeh zahir karta hai ke profitable deal banane ka ek acha moka mojood hai, jahan forecast ke sahi hone ki mazid chances hain.Entry point ke liye ek structured algorithm follow karte hain jo chand aham steps par mabni hota hai. Sabse pehle senior H4 timeframe par trend ka direction identify karte hain taake market ke reverse flow mein na phans jayein.Iska matlab hai ke H4 aur H1 timeframes ka trend ek dusre ke saath compatible hona chahiye. Aaj ke market ka trend sell transactions ke liye favorable lagta hai is liye indicators par focus karte hain jo hain HamaSystem, RSI Trend, aur Magnetic_Levels_Color. Indicators ki reading ka intezar karte hain aur pehle market ki activity ko observe karte hain.Jo level 0.6186 par price decline ko rok raha tha, woh ye hint de raha hai ke pehle ka price decline ek aam market trap ho sakta hai, jo sellers ko lalkar kar unse positions lena chahta tha. Agar yeh analysis sahi hai toh price ka movement yahan se upward accumulate ho sakta hai aur level 0.628 tak ja sakta hai magar yeh tab tak possible hai jab tak Hama aur RSI Trend ke signals red na ho jayen. Jab indicators yeh batayein ke sellers ka pressure zyada ho gaya hai, tab sell transaction open karte hain. Market se exit ka faisla Magnetic Levels Indicator ke mutabiq hota hai, jo aaj 0.61400 ke level par target karta hai.Uske baad har magnetic level ke kareeb price ka behavior monitor karte hain aur yeh decide karte hain ke position ko agle level tak hold karna chahiye ya profit ko secure kar lena chahiye.Yeh disciplined approach profit maximize karne aur risk minimize karne ke liye zaruri hai. Analysis ke liye yeh zaruri hai ke market ke technical tools ka sahi istemal kiya jaye aur logical strategies ke zariye decisions liye jayein jo is process mein madadgar sabit hote hain.

AUD/USD Market Analysis (H1 Timeframe)
Aaj ka chart AUD/USD ka hai, jo H1 (Hourly) timeframe par bana hua hai. Chart par nazar daal kar lagta hai ke price kaafi der se downward trend par chal raha hai. Moving averages (orange aur blue lines) is trend ki tasdeeq kar rahi hain, aur price consistently unke neeche trade kar rahi hai. Ye situation bearish momentum ko show karti hai, jo shayad aage chal kar mazeed girawat la sakti hai.
Red line (200-period moving average) ne ab tak ek strong resistance provide kiya hai. Har baar jab price ne is line ko touch karne ki koshish ki, wahan se downward move shuru ho gaya. Iska matlab ye hai ke sellers is waqt market mein zyada dominant hain aur buyers itne strong nahi lag rahe.
Ab baat karte hain important support levels ki. Price ne 0.6200 ke level ke aas paas kaafi strong support find kiya hai. Magar agar price is level ke neeche break karta hai, to ye samjha ja sakta hai ke market mazeed neeche ja sakti hai, aur 0.6185 aur uske neeche ke levels target kar sakte hain. Dusri taraf agar price wapas upar jaane lage aur moving averages ko tod de, to shayad market bullish zone mein enter kar le.
Traders ke liye abhi sabse zaruri baat ye hai ke wo apne risk ko achhi tarah manage karein. Agar aap is waqt short positions lena chahein, to 0.6200 ke neeche ka breakout dekh kar trade karein. Lekin agar price wapas 0.6230 ke upar close karta hai, to ye samajhna zaruri hai ke bullish reversal ho sakta hai.
Aapki trading strategy is waqt kaafi important hai. Kya aap is downward trend ka faida uthana chahte hain, ya breakout ka wait karenge? Apne comments mein apni raye share karein.

جنوری 9 2025 کو اے یو ڈی/امریکی ڈالر کے لیے پیشن گوئی

آسٹریلوی ڈالر نے روزانہ چارٹ پر نزولی قیمت چینل کی بالائی باؤنڈری کو جانچنے کی کوششیں ترک کر دی ہیں۔ قیمت کی یہ کمزوری مارلن آسیلیٹر کی نیچے کی طرف حرکت سے بھی ظاہر ہوتی ہے، جو اسی طرح ترقی کے علاقے تک پہنچنے میں ناکام رہی۔



٠.٦٠٧٧ پر سپورٹ لیول اب اہم ہدف بن گیا ہے۔ قابل ذکر بات یہ ہے کہ قیمت چینل کی نچلی باؤنڈری کے ساتھ اس کا انٹرسیکشن ایک مقناطیسی نقطہ کے طور پر کام کرتا ہے، جو کل کے لیے متوقع کم ہونے کی نشاندہی کرتا ہے۔

چار گھنٹے کے چارٹ پر، قیمت ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. لائن کی حمایت کو توڑنے کی کوشش کر رہی ہے۔ مارلن آسیلیٹر اس کوشش کی حمایت کرتا ہے کیونکہ یہ صفر کی لکیر سے نیچے رہتا ہے۔ اگر قیمت کل کی کم سے کم ہو جاتی ہے، تو یہ 0.6077 کے ہدف کی طرف بڑھے گی۔



تعینات کیا مراد ہے مارکیٹ کے تجزیات یہاں ارسال کیے جاتے ہیں جس کا مقصد آپ کی بیداری بڑھانا ہے، لیکن تجارت کرنے کے لئے ہدایات دینا نہیں*

AUD/USD Hourly Chart Analysis
AUD/USD ka hourly chart humein ek clear trend dikhata hai. Price abhi 0.61833 ke support level ke kareeb trade kar rahi hai. Market ne pichle kuch dinon mein resistance levels ko test karte hue rejection face kiya hai, jo is baat ka signal hai ke sellers kaafi active hain aur market downward pressure mein hai.
Chart par moving averages ka analysis karein toh red line (200 EMA) price ke upar hai, jo ek long-term bearish trend ko confirm kar rahi hai. Short-term moving averages (10 aur 20 EMA) bhi downward slope dikhate hain, jo momentum ki kami aur price ke neeche jaane ka imkaan dikhata hai.
Key Levels:
Support: 0.61833 - Yeh ek strong support hai, agar yeh tod diya jata hai toh agla target 0.61690 ya us se neeche ho sakta hai.
Resistance: 0.62234 - Agar price upar jaaye aur is level ko tod de, toh agla resistance 0.62546 hoga.
Pichle kuch dinon mein price ne 0.62234 ke resistance level ko todne ki koshish ki thi, lekin buyers zyada strong nahi lag rahe. Agar price yahan se bounce karti hai, toh bull run ka chhota chance ho sakta hai, lekin jab tak 0.62234 ke resistance ke upar closing nahi hoti, market bearish hi rahegi.
Is waqt ka ideal trading strategy yeh ho sakti hai ke support aur resistance levels par price action ka intezaar kiya jaye. Agar price 0.61833 todti hai, toh short selling ek acha mauqa ho sakti hai. Aur agar price bounce kar ke resistance ke kareeb jati hai, toh wahan rejection par selling ka option bhi hai.
Conclusion:
Market abhi ek bearish phase mein hai. Traders ko chahiye ke risk management par focus karein aur chart patterns ka ghoor se analysis karein. Moving averages aur key levels ka dhyan rakhte hue apni strategy banayen.

Aaj Australia ka inflation report dovish nazriyat rakhne walon ke liye ek acha signal hai, jahan annual trimmed mean 3.5% se gir kar 3.2% y/y par aa gaya hai. Ye maazi ke 6 mahino mein 5 dafa gir chuka hai, aur ab RBA ke 2-3% inflation target se sirf 0.2 percentage points upar hai. February Rate Cut Ke Chances Barhne Lage
February rate cut ke chances ab 80% se zyada hain, jo Christmas se pehle RBA ke dovish minutes ke waqt 55% par the.
Lekin February mein rate cut abhi bhi mushkil hai, kyun ke unemployment gir raha hai aur Trump administration ke inflationary asrat abhi mukammal samajh nahi aaye.
RBA January 29 ko quarterly inflation figures ka intezar karega aur uske baad February cut ka faisla karega.
Kamzor employment figures bhi turant action ka sabab ban sakte hain, magar abhi tak RBA apni “slow and steady” monetary policy ka rukh barqarar rakhe hue hai.

Australian Bond Yields Aur ASX 200 Ka Hal
Australian bond yields across the curve neeche gir gaye, jahan 1-3 saal ke yields apne sabse buray din mein ~6 basis points gir gaye, 4 hafton mein sabse zyada girawat.
ASX 200 ne FOMC high ke upar break kiya aur apne pachway bullish din ke raaste par hai.
Pehle ke swing high call ko challenge karte huye, ye abhi bhi resistance ke kareeb hai.

AUD/USD Ki Position
AUD/USD flat trade kar raha hai, jo shayad USD/CNH aur US dollar index ke sideways trade ke sabab se hai.
Mera shak hai ke AUD/USD ke liye ek bounce ho sakta hai, kyun ke RBA cuts ke renewed calls ke bawajood ye kamzor hone se inkar kar raha hai.

Technical Analysis: AUD/USD
US session mein US jobless claims aur ADP employment change ka data US-Aussie interest rate differential par asar daal sakta hai.
Upbeat data: May Fed rate hike ke chances ko kam kar sakta hai, jo US dollar ke haq mein interest rate differential ko barhata hai.
Is scenario mein AUD/USD pair $0.61500 aur descending channel ke lower trend line ki taraf gir sakta hai.
Weaker-than-expected figures: March Fed rate cut ke bets ko trigger kar sakta hai, jo AUD/USD ko upper trend line aur $0.63 level ki taraf support kar sakta hai.

Australian dollar (AUD) apne multi-year lows ke qareeb takriban 0.6150 par trade kar raha hai jahan ispar significant selling pressure hai.Yeh girawat stronger-than-expected US non-farm payrolls data ki wajah se hai, jo US dollar ko mazboot bana raha hai aur Federal Reserve (Fed) ki hawkish policy ko reinforce kar raha hai.Fed ki monetary policy ab zyada hawkish ho gayi hai jahan high US bond yields aur persistent inflation ne unhe interest rates elevated rakhne par majboor kar diya hai.December FOMC report ke mutabiq, labor market mein gradual easing aur interest rate cuts ka slow pace Fed ki inflation control commitment ko dikhata hai.Iske baraks Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) ki monetary policy abhi bhi easing ki taraf hai jo low Australian core inflation ki wajah se hai.Yeh divergence AUD ko mazid kamzor bana raha hai.Iske ilawa, US-China trade tensions aur China ke economic slowdown ke concerns AUD par mazeed pressure daal rahe hain kyunke China Australia ka ek bara trading partner hai.Technical nazriye se dekha jaye toh AUD abhi downtrend mein hai.Relative Strength Index (RSI) 28 ke qareeb hai jo oversold conditions ko indicate karta hai. Lekin Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram rising red bars dikhata hai jo yeh suggest karta hai ke downtrend abhi bhi momentum gain kar raha hai. Immediate support level 0.6150 par hai, jabke resistance levels 0.6200 aur 0.6260 par hain.Agar AUD recovery ki koshish kare toh in levels par significant resistance ka samna hoga. Is waqt AUD strong US dollar RBA ki easing policy bias, geopolitical tensions aur Chinese economic slowdown ke headwinds ka samna kar raha hai. Jab tak Chinese economy mein behtari ke asaar ya Fed ki monetary policy mein shift nahi hota AUD short-term mein pressure mein hi rahega. Traders is recovery ko short positions re-enter karne ke liye ek moka samajh rahe hain.Nateeja yeh hai ke Australian dollar ki performance broad economic concerns aur structural issues ko reflect karti hai.Resistance firmly 0.62 par hai aur bearish sentiment dominate kar raha hai.Currency agle hafton mein 0.60 level ko test kar sakti hai jab tak Chinese economy ya global sentiment mein koi bara positive change nahi hota.

Australian dollar ko kafi zyada selling pressure ka samna hai, aur yeh 0.6150 ke aas paas multi-year lows pe trade kar raha hai, jo ke US ke stronger-than-expected non-farm payrolls data ke release ke baad dekha gaya. Yeh mazboot US economic data Federal Reserve (Fed) ke hawkish stance ko mazid mazbooti deta hai, jo US interest rates ko high rakhta hai aur US dollar ko support karta hai. Fed ne apni monetary policy ko hawkish banaya hai, jisme US bond yields ko high rakha gaya hai. Yeh hawkish stance persistent inflation aur mazboot labor market ki wajah se mazid support ho raha hai, jiski wajah se 2025 mein sirf do 25-basis-point interest rate cuts ki umeed hai. December ke FOMC report ne bhi labor market mein gradual easing aur interest rate cuts ki slowing pace ko indicate kiya, jo Fed ki inflation se ladne ki commitment ko dikhata hai. Dusri taraf, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) ko Australian core inflation ki kam hone ki wajah se monetary policy ko aage bhi ease karne ki umeed hai. Yeh US aur Australia ki monetary policies ka farq AUD ko aur weak kar raha hai. Geopolitical risks, jisme ongoing US-China trade tensions aur escalation ka khatra shamil hai, bhi AUD ki weakness ka sabab ban rahe hain. China, jo ke Australia ka bara trading partner hai, mein economic slowdown bhi Australian dollar pe additional pressure dal raha hai.
Technical perspective se, AUD abhi bhi downtrend mein hai. Relative Strength Index (RSI) 28 ke aas paas hai, jo oversold conditions ko indicate karta hai. Lekin, Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram red bar mein rise show kar raha hai, jo yeh suggest karta hai ke downtrend abhi bhi momentum gain kar raha hai. AUD ke liye immediate support level 0.6150 hai, jo recent low hai. Resistance levels 0.6200 aur 0.6260 pe hain. Agar AUD koi meaningful recovery karne ki koshish karta hai, toh yeh levels pe significant resistance face karega. Australian dollar ko kai challenges ka samna hai, jaise strong US dollar, RBA ka easing bias, geopolitical risks, aur China ka economic slowdown. Jab tak market sentiment mein koi significant improvement na ho ya Fed ki monetary policy mein koi shift na aaye, AUD ko near term mein pressure ka samna karna padega.

Australian dollar ko kafi zyada selling pressure ka samna hai, aur yeh 0.6150 ke aas paas multi-year lows pe trade kar raha hai, jo ke US ke stronger-than-expected non-farm payrolls data ke release ke baad dekha gaya. Yeh mazboot US economic data Federal Reserve (Fed) ke hawkish stance ko mazid mazbooti deta hai, jo US interest rates ko high rakhta hai aur US dollar ko support karta hai. Fed ne apni monetary policy ko hawkish banaya hai, jisme US bond yields ko high rakha gaya hai. Yeh hawkish stance persistent inflation aur mazboot labor market ki wajah se mazid support ho raha hai, jiski wajah se 2025 mein sirf do 25-basis-point interest rate cuts ki umeed hai. December ke FOMC report ne bhi labor market mein gradual easing aur interest rate cuts ki slowing pace ko indicate kiya, jo Fed ki inflation se ladne ki commitment ko dikhata hai. Dusri taraf, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) ko Australian core inflation ki kam hone ki wajah se monetary policy ko aage bhi ease karne ki umeed hai. Yeh US aur Australia ki monetary policies ka farq AUD ko aur weak kar raha hai. Geopolitical risks, jisme ongoing US-China trade tensions aur escalation ka khatra shamil hai, bhi AUD ki weakness ka sabab ban rahe hain. China, jo ke Australia ka bara trading partner hai, mein economic slowdown bhi Australian dollar pe additional pressure dal raha hai.
Technical perspective se, AUD abhi bhi downtrend mein hai. Relative Strength Index (RSI) 28 ke aas paas hai, jo oversold conditions ko indicate karta hai. Lekin, Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram red bar mein rise show kar raha hai, jo yeh suggest karta hai ke downtrend abhi bhi momentum gain kar raha hai. AUD ke liye immediate support level 0.6150 hai, jo recent low hai. Resistance levels 0.6200 aur 0.6260 pe hain. Agar AUD koi meaningful recovery karne ki koshish karta hai, toh yeh levels pe significant resistance face karega. Australian dollar ko kai challenges ka samna hai, jaise strong US dollar, RBA ka easing bias, geopolitical risks, aur China ka economic slowdown. Jab tak market sentiment mein koi significant improvement na ho ya Fed ki monetary policy mein koi shift na aaye, AUD ko near term mein pressure ka samna karna padega.

Do din pehle, AUD 0.6188 ke low tak gir gaya. Kal, jab AUD 0.6210 par tha, humne kaha tha ke ‘downward momentum ka izafa itna nahi hai ke ek barqarar girawat ka ishara de.’ Lekin humne yeh bhi kaha tha ke ‘agar AUD 0.6245 (minor resistance 0.6225 par hai) ke neeche rahta hai, toh yeh major support 0.6180 ko test kar sakta hai, uske baad ek rebound ke imkaanat hain.’ AUD phir 0.6173 tak gir gaya aur rebound karte hue 0.6198 (-0.29%) par close hua. Halankeh downward momentum mein mazeed izafa nahi hua, lekin AUD dobara 0.6175 level ko retest kar sakta hai. Agla support 0.6150 par hai jo filhal threat mein nahi hai. Resistance 0.6210 par hai; agar 0.6225 ka toar ho jaye, toh iska matlab hoga ke downward momentum kam ho gaya hai.

Friday ko (09 Jan, spot 0.6210 par), humne yeh highlight kiya tha ke halia price action ke natije mein ‘momentum mein izafa hua hai, lekin AUD ko 0.6180 ke neeche break karna aur rehna zaroori hai takay mazeed kamzori ki tawaqo ho.’ Halankeh AUD baad mein 0.6173 ke low tak gir gaya, yeh jaldi se rebound karte hue 0.6198 par close hua. Agar 0.6250 (‘strong resistance’ jo kal 0.6265 par tha) break na ho, toh AUD ka 0.6180 ke neeche clear break karna ab bhi mumkin hai.

Abi k leye support 0.6150 par hai, jo abhi abhi multi-year trough tak pohanch chuki hai; agar yeh toot jaye to 0.6100 aur phir 0.6060 agle potential floors ho sakte hain. Upar ki taraf, pehla resistance 0.6200 ke qareeb hai, uske baad 0.6260 — woh area jo kisi bhi meaningful recovery ki koshish ke liye reclaim karna zaroori hai.

Australian Dollar (AUD) ne apni chaar din ki lagataar girawat ka silsila Monday ko roka diya aur US Dollar (USD) ke mukable apne sabse neeche level, jo April 2020 ke baad dekhne mein aaya, ke kareeb stable raha. AUD ko is dafa China ke haali mein liye gaye stimulus measures se kuch support mila, jiski wajah se AUD/USD pair ne halka sa recovery ka asar dikhaya. Australia aur China ke darmiyan mazboot trade relationship ke sabab, China ki economy mein hone wali kisi bhi tabdeeli ka Australian markets par seedha asar hota hai.

AUD/USD pair Monday ko 0.6160 ke aas-paas trade kar raha tha aur descending channel ke andar rehte huye bearish outlook dikhata raha. Daily chart ke mutabiq, 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) ka level 30 tak pohanch gaya, jo ke oversold condition ko signal karta hai. Yeh is baat ki bhi nishani hai ke shayad qareebi future mein ek upward correction dekhne ko mile.





Agar support levels ka jaiza liya jaye to AUD/USD pair descending channel ke lower boundary ke paas, yani 0.5950 tak girne ka imkaan rakhta hai. Dusri taraf, resistance levels par pehla mark nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke kareeb, yani 0.6196 par dikhai deta hai. Uske baad doosra resistance level 14-day EMA ke aas-paas, yani 0.6214 par mojood hai. Magar, agar pair mazeed barhne ki koshish kare, to sabse bara aur mazboot resistance descending channel ke upper boundary ke paas, yani 0.6230 par hai.

Is poore analysis ke mutabiq, AUD/USD pair oversold condition ke kareeb hai, lekin descending channel ke andar rehte huye short-term mein bearish movement dikhata rahega. Lekin China ke stimulus measures ki wajah se bullish divergence ka bhi imkaan hai.

Australian dollar ko kafi zyada selling pressure ka samna hai, aur yeh 0.6150 ke aas paas multi-year lows pe trade kar raha hai, jo ke US ke stronger-than-expected non-farm payrolls data ke release ke baad dekha gaya. Yeh mazboot US economic data Federal Reserve (Fed) ke hawkish stance ko mazid mazbooti deta hai, jo US interest rates ko high rakhta hai aur US dollar ko support karta hai. Fed ne apni monetary policy ko hawkish banaya hai, jisme US bond yields ko high rakha gaya hai. Yeh hawkish stance persistent inflation aur mazboot labor market ki wajah se mazid support ho raha hai, jiski wajah se 2025 mein sirf do 25-basis-point interest rate cuts ki umeed hai. December ke FOMC report ne bhi labor market mein gradual easing aur interest rate cuts ki slowing pace ko indicate kiya, jo Fed ki inflation se ladne ki commitment ko dikhata hai. Dusri taraf, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) ko Australian core inflation ki kam hone ki wajah se monetary policy ko aage bhi ease karne ki umeed hai. Yeh US aur Australia ki monetary policies ka farq AUD ko aur weak kar raha hai. Geopolitical risks, jisme ongoing US-China trade tensions aur escalation ka khatra shamil hai, bhi AUD ki weakness ka sabab ban rahe hain. China, jo ke Australia ka bara trading partner hai, mein economic slowdown bhi Australian dollar pe additional pressure dal raha hai. Technical perspective se, AUD abhi bhi downtrend mein hai. Relative Strength Index (RSI) 28 ke aas paas hai, jo oversold conditions ko indicate karta hai. Lekin, Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram red bar mein rise show kar raha hai, jo yeh suggest karta hai ke downtrend abhi bhi momentum gain kar raha hai. AUD ke liye immediate support level 0.6150 hai, jo recent low hai. Resistance levels 0.6200 aur 0.6260 pe hain. Agar AUD koi meaningful recovery karne ki koshish karta hai, toh yeh levels pe significant resistance face karega. Australian dollar ko kai challenges ka samna hai, jaise strong US dollar, RBA ka easing bias, geopolitical risks, aur China ka economic slowdown. Jab tak market sentiment mein koi significant improvement na ho ya Fed ki monetary policy mein koi shift na aaye, AUD ko near term mein pressure ka samna karna padega.