ای AUD/USD کی تجزیہ اور مارکیٹ کے رجحانات

AUD/USD ki current situation dekhte hue lagta hai ke market abhi bhi sellers ke favor mein hai, chahe Australian unemployment rate aur employment changes mein improvement nazar aayi ho. Buyers ke liye 0.6432 zone ko hold karna mushkil hua, aur price tezi se girte hue 0.6366 par pahunch gaya. Agle hafte ki economic calendar bohot ahm hai, jo USD ke trading sentiment ko kaafi influence kar sakti hai. Fed Funds Rate, Unemployment Rate, aur Philly Fed Manufacturing Index jaise indicators traders ke liye naye price movement opportunities provide karenge. Sabse zyada tawajjo Fed Funds Rate decision par hogi. Agar Federal Reserve interest rate ko barhata hai, to USD ki demand aur strength badhne ki umeed hai. Lekin agar rate reduce ya pause hota hai, to yeh ek dovish stance ko signal karega, jo USD ki value ko kamzor kar sakta hai. AUD/USD traders ke liye, US unemployment rate mein tabdeeli bhi bohot important hai. Agar unemployment rate girta hai, to US economy mein confidence barhta hai, jo USD ki support karega. Wahi, agar unemployment rate barhta hai, to economic slowdown ki concerns aur USD par downward pressure ho sakta hai.Philly Fed Manufacturing Index bhi USD ki movement ko influence karega. Agar index strong reading deta hai, to US dollar ke liye positive sentiment generate hoga, jabke weaker reading bullish momentum ko kamzor kar sakti hai. AUD/USD ke liye ab resistance aur support levels pe focus karna zaroori hai. 0.6470 pe resistance break hone ki surat mein bulls ke liye strength badhne ka moka milega. Is ke baad price 0.6688 aur 0.6943 tak bhi test kar sakta hai jo second aur third resistance levels hain.Dosri taraf, minor support level 0.6339 pe hai. Agar price is support ko todta hai to yeh 0.6044 tak gir sakta hai.Is ke neeche market 0.5521 jo third support level hai tak bhi ja sakta hai. Dekhna yeh hai ke kya bulls active hote hain aur price ko phir se north ki taraf le jate hain ya nahi.

AUD/USD market ka current price behavior kaafi dilchasp hai, aur is waqt yeh pair 0.6362 par trade ho raha hai. Chart par ek ideal wave structure dikhayi de raha hai jo ke selling kaafi attractive bana raha hai, lekin filhal aggressive action lena thoda jaldi hoga. Relative Strength Index (RSI) negative sentiment ko show kar raha hai, jo buy decision ko mushkil bana raha hai, jabke medium-term bearish trend zyada preferable lag raha hai. Saath hi, MACD ke moving averages south ki taraf move ho rahe hain, jo ek negative crossover ka ishara de rahe hain jo long-term bearish targets ko confirm kar sakta hai. Price action EMA-20 ke upar rehne mein fail hua hai aur MA-50 se neeche aa gaya hai. Halanke, current candle abhi complete nahi hui, aur agar price EMA-50 ke neeche rehti hai, toh ye aur weakness ka signal hoga. Short term mein, price pehle resistance level 0.6424 ko test kar sakti hai. Agar ye level break ho jata hai, toh agla target 0.6471 hoga. Ek aur breakout ke baad AUD/USD 0.6527 resistance zone tak ja sakta hai. Dosri taraf, bears ka initial target support level 0.6338 hai. Agar ye support break hota hai, toh price mazeed neeche ja kar 0.5534 tak pahunchegi, aur extended bearish scenario mein 0.4478 tak new lows establish ho sakte hain. Yeh dekhna zaroori hoga ke current candle support levels ke muqable mein kaise react karti hai, taake agla directional move samjha ja sake.Macroeconomic front par, November ke liye Producer Price Index (PPI) ne expectation se zyada inflation show ki, jahan headline PPI 3% YoY badha (2.4% se upar) aur core PPI 3.4% YoY upar gaya, jo ke forecast se zyada hai. Iske bawajood, US Dollar Index 106.79 par stable hai, aur Federal Reserve ke agle hafte wale decision se pehle limited traction show kar raha hai. Markets cautious hain, weak jobless claims ko dekhte huay USD ka bearish outlook consider kar rahe hain.
Australian side par strong employment data ne positive surprise diya, jahan November mein 35.6K jobs add hui (25K forecast ke muqable mein) aur unemployment rate 3.9% tak gir gaya (expected 4.2% se behtar). Yeh data February rate cut ki possibility ko kam karta hai, lekin Reserve Bank of Australia apni inflation strategy par confident hai aur targets ki taraf steady progress ko highlight karta hai. Yeh mixed economic backdrop AUD/USD ki dynamics ko complex bana raha hai jisse traders ko further developments ke liye alert rehna chahiye.

AUD/USD Analysis H4 Timeframe
Australian Dollar vs US Dollar (AUD/USD) ke H4 timeframe par dekhne se yeh samajh aata hai ke market abhi bhi bearish pressure mein hai, lekin short-term support level 0.63594 ke aas-paas stability nazar aa rahi hai. Yeh level buyers ke liye crucial hai, jahan se price ne pehle bhi bounce kiya tha. Ab tak ke candlestick patterns aur indicators ke analysis se kuch interesting observations saamne aaye hain.
Market Movement
Chart par hum dekhte hain ke price 12 November se downward trend mein tha, jo abhi tak continuation dikhata hai. Halka sa bounce 9 December ke baad aaya, lekin price phir se niche gir kar 0.63594 ke level ko test kar raha hai. Agar yeh level break hota hai toh agla target 0.6300 ya usse neeche ke levels ho sakte hain. Lekin agar yeh support hold karta hai, toh bullish correction ke chances barh jayenge.
Indicators Analysis

1. Bears Power Indicator
   Bears Power ka current value -0.001884 hai, jo yeh batata hai ke sellers ka abhi bhi market par control hai. Lekin is value ka dheere dheere positive side ki taraf move karna yeh indicate kar raha hai ke selling pressure mein kami a rahi hai.
2. Awesome Oscillator (AO)
   AO ka value negative hai (-0.002682), jo bearish momentum ko confirm karta hai. Lekin green histogram bars ka zahoor bullish divergence ka signal de raha hai, jo potential reversal ka pehla hint ho sakta hai.

Key Levels to Watch

• Support: 0.63594 – Yeh current support level hai, jo buyers ke liye important hai.
• Resistance: 0.63960 – Agar price bounce karta hai, toh yeh pehla short-term resistance hoga.

Conclusion
Market abhi bearish trend mein hai, lekin support ke aas-paas buying interest dikh raha hai. Agar price yahan se bounce karta hai, toh short-term bullish rally ke chances hain. Lekin agar support break hota hai, toh price neeche ke levels ki taraf ja sakta hai. Traders ke liye sabr aur confirmation ke saath trade karna zaroori hai. Support aur resistance ke beech price ka reaction dekhna crucial hoga.

AUD/USD
AUD/USD Market Analysis
AUD/USD pair kaafi dynamic aur volatile currency pair hai jo Australian Dollar aur US Dollar ki value ko compare karta hai. Yeh pair zyadatar commodities, economic data, aur market sentiments par dependent hota hai. Aaj kal AUD/USD ki price movements mein kaafi fluctuations dekhne ko mil rahi hain, jo investors ke liye ek challenging environment create kar rahi hain.

Fundamental Factors:
AUD/USD ki movement mein sabse bara factor commodity prices hain, khaas kar gold aur iron ore ki demand aur supply. Australia ek major commodity exporter hai, aur iski currency directly in cheezon ki price changes se affect hoti hai. Doosri taraf, US Dollar global safe-haven currency hai jo risk-on aur risk-off scenarios mein kaafi impact karta hai. Federal Reserve ke interest rate decisions aur US economic data jaise inflation aur employment reports bhi AUD/USD ki direction decide karte hain.

Technical Analysis:
Abhi ke market trend ke mutabiq, AUD/USD ki support level 0.6300 par hai aur resistance level 0.6500 ke aas paas dekhne ko mil raha hai. Agar price support level todti hai to yeh further downside ki taraf jasakti hai. Lekin agar resistance todti hai, to bullish trend ka possibility barhta hai. Moving averages aur RSI indicators ko closely monitor karna zaroori hai, jo potential reversal ya continuation signals provide karte hain.

Market Sentiment:
China ka economic data bhi AUD/USD ko directly impact karta hai, kyun ke Australia China ka bara trading partner hai. Agar China ki economy weak hoti hai, to AUD par negative pressure aata hai. Is waqt market risk sentiment mixed hai, jo AUD/USD ke liye uncertainty ka signal de raha hai.

Conclusion:
AUD/USD pair un traders ke liye acha hai jo short-term aur medium-term opportunities dhoondte hain. Lekin yeh zaroori hai ke technical aur fundamental factors ko analyze kiya jaye taake profitable trades ki planning ki ja sake. Risk management aur proper strategy ko follow karna is pair ke liye successful trading ka key factor hai.

AUD/USD
AUD/USD Market Analysis
AUD/USD pair kaafi dynamic aur volatile currency pair hai jo Australian Dollar aur US Dollar ki value ko compare karta hai. Yeh pair zyadatar commodities, economic data, aur market sentiments par dependent hota hai. Aaj kal AUD/USD ki price movements mein kaafi fluctuations dekhne ko mil rahi hain, jo investors ke liye ek challenging environment create kar rahi hain.

Fundamental Factors:
AUD/USD ki movement mein sabse bara factor commodity prices hain, khaas kar gold aur iron ore ki demand aur supply. Australia ek major commodity exporter hai, aur iski currency directly in cheezon ki price changes se affect hoti hai. Doosri taraf, US Dollar global safe-haven currency hai jo risk-on aur risk-off scenarios mein kaafi impact karta hai. Federal Reserve ke interest rate decisions aur US economic data jaise inflation aur employment reports bhi AUD/USD ki direction decide karte hain.

Technical Analysis:
Abhi ke market trend ke mutabiq, AUD/USD ki support level 0.6300 par hai aur resistance level 0.6500 ke aas paas dekhne ko mil raha hai. Agar price support level todti hai to yeh further downside ki taraf jasakti hai. Lekin agar resistance todti hai, to bullish trend ka possibility barhta hai. Moving averages aur RSI indicators ko closely monitor karna zaroori hai, jo potential reversal ya continuation signals provide karte hain.

Market Sentiment:
China ka economic data bhi AUD/USD ko directly impact karta hai, kyun ke Australia China ka bara trading partner hai. Agar China ki economy weak hoti hai, to AUD par negative pressure aata hai. Is waqt market risk sentiment mixed hai, jo AUD/USD ke liye uncertainty ka signal de raha hai.

Conclusion:
AUD/USD pair un traders ke liye acha hai jo short-term aur medium-term opportunities dhoondte hain. Lekin yeh zaroori hai ke technical aur fundamental factors ko analyze kiya jaye taake profitable trades ki planning ki ja sake. Risk management aur proper strategy ko follow karna is pair ke liye successful trading ka key factor hai.

Aaj ke din US Flash News market mein tabdili la sakti hai aur ek bullish concert pattern baad mein nazar aa sakta hai. Agle hafte ke liye scheduled high-impact news events ke madde nazar, market participants ko ehtiyat ke saath trade karna hoga.Yeh events US dollar ki performance par kaafi asar dal sakte hain aur is wajah se market mein volatility barh sakti hai.Traders ke liye zaruri hoga ke woh economic data aur market expectations se ba-khabar rahain saath hi koi unexpected surprises ya forecasts se deviations ko bhi nazar mein rakhein. Itne saare aham reports ke saath agla hafta US dollar ke liye ek significant period hoga, aur market participants ke liye zaruri hoga ke apni strategies ko adjust karein.AUD/USD ke liye meri suggestion yeh hai ke is hafta market mein kaafi dynamic environment hoga, jisme kuch aham news events significant market reactions ko drive kar sakte hain. Reports jaise ke USA Flash Service aur Manufacturing Index, Retail Sales Federal Funds Rate FOMC Economic Projections, Final GDP Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Unemployment Claims, aur Core PCE Price Index market expectations ko shape karne ke liye critical information faraham karenge.Increased volatility ke potential ke saath market participants ko zarurat hogi ke woh data releases ko closely monitor karein aur market ke reaction ke mutabiq apni strategies adjust karein. Agar AUD/USD ka 1-hour time frame chart dekhein to market price neeche ja rahi hai aur support level todne ke baad wapas rise kar rahi hai. Market technical analysis ke mutabiq, indicators ke analysis ke zariye yeh samjha ja sakta hai ke 0.6320 level se neeche agle support level tak ek successful drop mumkin hai.Price bullish line todne ke baad neeche close hui hai aur support level ke neeche band hui hai.Filhal technical analysis aur indicators dono yeh suggest karte hain ke price kuch arse tak support level tak phir se pohonch sakti hai. Moving averages ke mutabiq, 50-day simple moving average 200-day moving average ke neeche tod chuka hai, jo market mein further girawat ka ishara de raha hai. Indicators yeh dikhate hain ke market ka current price kaafi high hai aur agle dinon mein price aur neeche gir sakta hai.RSI indicator abhi 30 aur 70 ke darmiyan takreeban 50 par hai lekin iski girawat market support level tak expected hai.

دسمبر 16 2024 کو اے یو ڈی/امریکی ڈالرکے لیے پیشن گوئی

یومیہ چارٹ پر ڈبل کنورجنسنس کے زیر اثر، آسٹریلوی ڈالر آج صبح 0.6351 کی سپورٹ لیول سے ترقی شروع کرنے کی کوشش کر رہا ہے۔



٠.٦٤١٠ کی ٹارگٹ لیول اب اتنی ناقابل تسخیر دکھائی نہیں دے رہی ہے جیسا کہ 12 دسمبر کو تھی۔ قیمت جتنی دیر تک 0.6351–0.6410 کی حد کے اندر رہے گی، گرتے ہوئے گرین پرائس چینل سے باہر نکلنا اتنا ہی آسان ہوگا۔ اگر قیمت طاقت دکھاتی ہے، تو یہ پہلی مزاحمت کو جانچنے کی کوشش کر سکتی ہے۔ تاہم، بدھ کے فیڈرل ریزرو کی شرح کے فیصلے اور جمعرات کے بینک آف جاپان اور بینک آف انگلینڈ کی تازہ کاریوں کا مارکیٹ پر وزن ہو سکتا ہے۔ لہٰذا، بدھ تک رینج باؤنڈ ٹریڈنگ بہترین حکمت عملی دکھائی دیتی ہے۔

چار گھنٹے کے چارٹ پر، مارلن آسیلیٹر ترقی کے علاقے کی حد کی جانچ کر رہا ہے۔ جمعہ کو، یہ بیلنس انڈیکیٹر لائن سے مزاحمت کی وجہ سے منفی زون سے باہر نکلنے میں ناکام رہا، لیکن آج، بیلنس لائن بڑھ رہی ہے، مزاحمت کو کم کر رہی ہے۔ قیمت کا مقصد 0.6410 ہدف کی سطح کی طاقت کو جانچنا ہے۔



تعینات کیا مراد ہے مارکیٹ کے تجزیات یہاں ارسال کیے جاتے ہیں جس کا مقصد آپ کی بیداری بڑھانا ہے، لیکن تجارت کرنے کے لئے ہدایات دینا نہیں*

AUD/USD Analysis – H1 Timeframe
AUD/USD ka H1 timeframe chart dekha jaye toh price abhi 0.63720 ke aas-paas trade kar raha hai. Recent price action ka analysis yeh batata hai ke market sideways movement mein hai, aur koi significant breakout abhi tak nazar nahi aa raha.
1. Price Trend:
Chart ke mutabiq, price ne downward trend ke baad consolidation phase enter kiya hai. Moving Average (50-period) price ke upar hai, jo is waqt bearish pressure ko highlight kar raha hai. Jab tak price is moving average ke upar close nahi karta, market bearish sentiment ko follow kar sakta hai. Lekin agar price breakout kar ke upar jaye, toh short-term bullish movement ka chance ban sakta hai.
2. Volume Analysis:
Volume bars clearly yeh dikhate hain ke market mein abhi low activity hai. High volume spikes ke bina, price ka koi strong move expected nahi hai. Volume ka yeh pattern sideways ya range-bound trading ko confirm kar raha hai. Iska matlab yeh hai ke market ya toh buyers ka intezaar kar raha hai ya phir sellers ke liye koi fresh trigger chahiye.
3. MACD Indicator:
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator ka analysis batata hai ke MACD line abhi zero ke thoda neeche hai, lekin histogram positive zone mein move kar raha hai. Yeh ek initial sign ho sakta hai ke market bullish reversal ki taraf ja raha hai. Lekin jab tak MACD line zero ke upar nahi jati, aur price moving average ke upar close nahi karta, clear confirmation nahi milegi.
4. Conclusion:
Abhi ke liye AUD/USD ka trend neutral hai, jahan price sideways move kar raha hai. Agar price 0.63720 ke upar strong breakout kare aur volume support kare, toh bullish movement ke chances barh jate hain. Wahi agar price neeche girta hai, toh 0.63430 ka support level test ho sakta hai. Short-term traders ke liye safe strategy yeh hogi ke breakout ke baad entry lein, jab ke long-term trend abhi bhi bearish hai.
Market ke indicators aur price ke behavior ko closely monitor karna zaroori hai taake low-risk entry points identify kiye ja sakein.

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Australian Dollar Soft Consumer Confidence Ki Wajah Se Neeche

Australian dollar Tuesday ko kaafi neeche aa gaya. North American session mein, AUD/USD 0.6337 par trade kar raha hai, jo likhne ke waqt 0.52% neeche hai.

Consumer Confidence Gir Gaya
Australia ka Westpac Consumer Confidence Index December mein 2% gir kar 94.6 se 92.2 par aa gaya. Ye November ke 5.6% ke izafay ke baad kaafi neeche aaya aur 3.2% ke forecast ko miss kar gaya. Consumers par sticky inflation, barhti hui interest rates, aur global outlook ki uncertainty ka asar hai.

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) ne inflation ko largely control kiya hai, jo October mein 2.1% par stable tha. Ye RBA ke 2% target ke andar hai, lekin underlying inflation jo December mein 3.2% se barh kar 3.5% ho gayi, ab bhi ek concern hai. RBA ke policymakers aur evidence dekhna chahte hain ke inflation sustainably 2% target ke andar aa gaya hai. Unke liye headline inflation ke muqable mein underlying inflation zyada behtareen gauge hai.

Pichle hafte ki meeting mein RBA ne 4.35% par rates ko barqarar rakha, jo ke “higher for longer” policy ka extension tha aur ye ab 13 mahine se chal rahi hai. RBA major central banks ke darmiyan ek outlier ban gaya hai, kyunki ab tak unhone interest rates neeche nahi kiye. Central bank ne signal diya hai ke ek aur rate hike ho sakta hai, lekin market expect kar raha hai ke RBA ka agla step rate cut hoga.

US Retail Sales Majboot
US retail sales strong numbers ke saath aayi hain, jo ye dikhata hai ke US economy mazboot hai. November mein retail sales 3.8% y/y barhi, jo October ke upwardly revised 2.9% ke baad sabse zyada annual gain hai pichle December ke baad. Monthly basis par, retail sales 0.7% barhi, jo market estimate aur upwardly revised October ke 0.5% se zyada thi.

Holiday season mein US consumers ne motor vehicles aur online sales ke zariye kaafi kharidari ki. Strong retail sales report ke bawajood, Wednesday ko rate cut ki expectations ab bhi 99% par hain, CME’s FedWatch ke mutabiq.

AUD/USD: Westpac Leading Index Pe Nazar
AUD/USD pair ke hawale se, Westpac Leading Index par focus raha. November mein ye index 0.1% barha, jo October ke 0.2% izafay ke baad tha. Growth aur unemployment expectations jaise key components RBA policy outlook ke liye kaafi significant hain.

Is report par zyada dhyan diya gaya jab November ke official figures ne unemployment rate ko 3.9% par dikhaya. Ye December ke PMI data se contrast karta hai, jisme labor market conditions loose dikhayi gayi thi.

Improving sentiment se consumer spending aur demand-driven inflation badh sakti hai, jo RBA rate cut ko delay kar sakti hai aur Aussie dollar ko support de sakti hai.

Beijing Stimulus Ka Asar
Investors ko Beijing se aane wali stimulus-related news par bhi focus karna chahiye. Agar China ki economy pickup karti hai, to Aussie dollar demand barh sakti hai, kyunki ek-third Aussie exports China ke liye hain.

Australian Dollar Daily Chart
US session mein, Fed interest rate decision aur FOMC Economic Projections Australian aur US ke interest rate differential ko impact kar sakti hain. Agar Fed 25-basis point ka rate cut karta hai, to focus Economic Projections par shift ho jayega.

Dovish revisions Fed Funds Rate projections mein AUD/USD pair ko $0.63623 resistance level ke upar le ja sakti hain. Lekin agar inflation aur labor market ke trends mazboot rahe aur Fed ke kam rate cuts ka projection aaye, to pair $0.63 ke neeche gir sakta hai aur lower trend line ko target kar sakta hai.