ای AUD/USD کی تجزیہ اور مارکیٹ کے رجحانات

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ای AUD/USD کی تجزیہ اور مارکیٹ کے رجحانات

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  • #5836 Collapse

    AUD/USD ka jo currency pair hai, usne Tuesday ko bullish trend dikhaya, jab yeh 0.6340 ke aas-paas trade kar raha tha aur ek well-defined ascending channel pattern mein upar ki taraf badh raha tha. Yeh technical formation aam tor par market sentiment ko positive dikhata hai, jo yeh darshata hai ke buyers control mein hain. Is bullish perspective ko mazid mazboot karte hue, 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) 50 ke level se kaafi upar hai, jo upward momentum ko support karta hai. Technical analysis ke hawale se, is pair ka agla potential target ascending channel ki upper boundary par hai, jo is waqt 0.6390 ke aas-paas hai. Agar yeh resistance successfully breach hoti hai, toh yeh 0.6400 ke crucial psychological barrier tak pohanchne ka rasta khol sakta hai.

    Iske ilawa, agar niche dekha jaye toh immediate support 9-day EMA (Exponential Moving Average) par 0.6316 par hai, uske baad 14-day EMA 0.6300 par hai. Ek zyada substantial support zone ascending channel ki lower boundary ke paas hai, jo 0.6280 par hai. Australian dollar ki recovery Tuesday ko Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) ke taraf se officially cash rate ko 25 basis points se 4.10% tak cut karne ke faislay ke baad hui. Yeh RBA ka chaar saal mein pehla rate cut tha, jo monetary policy mein ek potential shift ko darshata hai.

    RBA ki Governor Michelle Bullock ne post-meeting address mein yeh acknowledge kiya ke pehle ki rate hikes ka economy par asar pada hai. Lekin unhone yeh bhi kaha ke inflation par jeet hasil karna abhi jaldi hai, jo ke price pressures ko curb karne mein persistent challenges ko darshata hai. Governor Bullock ne yeh bhi bayaan kiya ke Australian labor market ki performance kaafi mazboot hai, isliye further rate cuts ke hawale se assumptions karna theek nahi hoga. Unki baatein market expectations ko temper karte hue, aage chal kar zyada data-dependent approach ki taraf ishara karti hain.

    RBA ke faislay ke baad, Australia ke char bade banks – Commonwealth Bank, NAB, ANZ, aur Westpac – ne bhi apne lending rates ko 25 basis points se cut karne ka elan kiya. Yeh coordinated action Australian financial system ki interconnectedness ko darshata hai aur central bank ke policy decisions ka asar bhi. December ke inflation data ne bhi kuch rahat di, jo yeh darshata hai ke Australia mein price pressures ab dheere dheere kam ho rahe hain. Aakhri quarterly consumer price index (CPI) ne final quarter of 2024 mein ummed se kam izafa dikhaya.

    Specifically, RBA ke preferred measure of inflation, average short-term CPI, quarter mein sirf 0.5% tak barha, jabke iski forecast 0.6% thi. Annual inflation rate bhi ghat kar 3.2% tak aa gaya, jabke pehle yeh 3.5% thi. AUD/USD pair ko international trade front par bhi kuch positive developments ka faida hua. Tab ke US President ne retaliatory tariffs ke implementation ko postpone karne ka faisla kiya, jo trade tensions ko kam karta hai aur market sentiment ko boost karta hai.

    Iske ilawa, US retail sales report jo weaker-than-expected aayi, ne speculation ko janm diya ke Federal Reserve shayad saal ke baad interest rate cuts par ghoor kar sakti hai. Yeh speculation US dollar par downward pressure daalti hai, jis se Australian currency ko aur madad mil

       
    • <a href="https://www.instaforex.org/ru/?x=ruforum">InstaForex</a>
    • #5837 Collapse

      AUD/USD ka technical analysis karke hum yeh samajh sakte hain ke is waqt market ka kya haal hai aur aage kahan jaa sakta hai. Aaj hum AUD/USD par focus karenge, jahan market price ne ek downtrend line se neeche girna shuru kiya hai. Is waqt, market price 50-day simple moving average se kaafi neeche hai, jise hum SMA kehte hain.

      Support Aur Resistance Levels:

      Is analysis mein sabse pehla support level 0.6309 hai, jahan market price abhi tak band nahi hui hai. Agar market price is level se upar uthti hai, toh yeh ek bullish signal hoga jisse market price trend line aur 50-day SMA tak pahunch sakta hai. Lekin agar yeh support level toot jata hai, toh agla major support level 0.6223 hai, jahan market mein buying ki umeed hai. Iska matlab hai ke agar market price 0.6309 se neeche girti hai, toh 0.6223 ek strong support ban sakta hai.

      Market Dynamics:

      Is waqt market par selling pressure kaafi zyada hai, jo yeh dikhata hai ke traders market price ko neeche le jaane ki koshish kar rahe hain. Lekin, agar market price 0.6309 se neeche nahi girti, toh humein yeh dekhna hoga ke kya price trend line tak pahunch sakti hai ya nahi. Yeh trend line market ke liye ek resistance level ban sakta hai.

      1-Hour Time Frame Analysis:

      Jab hum 1-hour time frame ka analysis karte hain, toh humein yeh pata chalta hai ke market price ne ek significant support level ko break kiya hai, jisse market price mein kaafi girawat aayi hai. Yeh girawat market ko niche le ja rahi hai, lekin market price thodi der ke liye upar bhi aa sakti hai.

      Minor resistance level jo hum dekh rahe hain wo 0.6381 hai. Agar market price is level tak pahunchti hai, toh yeh ek achha selling opportunity ho sakta hai. Agar price is level par reject hoti hai, toh yeh trend line ko break karne mein madadgar ho sakti hai, aur agla resistance level 0.6450 tak pahunch sakta hai.

      Indicators:

      Is analysis mein humne do moving averages use kiye hain: 50-day SMA (Navy color) aur 200-day SMA (Chocolate color). 50-day SMA short-term trend ko dikhata hai jabke 200-day SMA long-term trend ko represent karta hai. Agar 50-day SMA 200-day SMA ko cross karta hai, toh yeh ek bullish signal ho sakta hai.

      RSI indicator (Relative Strength Index) ka istemal bhi kiya gaya hai, jo market ki overbought ya oversold conditions ko dikhata hai. Agar RSI 30 se neeche hai, toh market oversold hai, aur agar 70 se upar hai, toh market overbought hai. Is waqt agar RSI oversold condition mein hai, toh humein buying ka signal mil sakta hai.

      Conclusion:

      In sab analysis ke baad, yeh kehna mushkil hai ke market ka kya future hai, lekin jo bhi trends aur indicators hain, unse yeh pata chalta hai ke market price abhi bhi support level par hai. Agar market price 0.6309 ko break nahi karti, toh humein umeed hai ke price thodi recovery dikha sakti hai. Lekin agar price neeche girti hai, toh 0.6223 ek strong support ban sakta hai.

      Yeh analysis humein market ki dynamics ko samajhne aur trading decisions lene mein madad karega. Traders ko chahiye ke wo is analysis ko apne trading strategies ke sath combine karein taake wo achi trading opportunities dhoond sakhein. Har waqt market ki halat par nazar rakhna zaroori hai aur indicators ka istemal karke behtar faisle lena chahiye.


       

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