ای AUD/USD کی تجزیہ اور مارکیٹ کے رجحانات

China ke economic statistics ke jumay ke din elaan ke baad, Australian dollar (AUD) ne US dollar (USD) ke muqablay mein halka sa mazbooti dikhayi. 2024 ke teesray quarter mein 4.6% ke izafay ke baad, China ka GDP 5.4% year-over-year barh gaya chothay quarter mein. Yeh data market consensus ke 5% ke andazay se kaafi behtar tha.

Quarter-over-quarter basis par Chinese GDP rate Q4 2024 mein 1.6% barh gaya, jo ke pehle wale quarter ke 0.9% izafay se zyada tha aur yeh andazay ke mutabiq 1.6% tha. December ke annual retail sales 3.7% barh gayi, jo ke andazay ke 3.5% aur pichlay mahine ke 3% se behtar hai, jabke industrial production 6.2% pe aayi, jo ke 5.4% ke andazay aur November ke 5.4% se zyada thi.

Australia ki baat karein toh, seasonally adjusted unemployment rate November ke 3.9% se barh kar December mein 4.0% ho gayi, jo ke market ke andazay ke mutabiq thi. Lekin employment growth December mein 56.3K tak barh gayi, jo market ke andazay (15.0K) se bohot zyada thi aur November ke 28.2K (jo ke pehle 35.6K update hui thi) se bhi behtar thi.

ABS ke chief of labor statistics, Bjorn Jarvis, ne kaha: "Employment-to-population ratio 0.1 percentage points barh kar naye record 64.5% tak pahunch gayi. Yeh data pre-COVID-19 levels se 2.3 percentage points zyada aur ek saal pehle ke muqablay mein 0.5 percentage points zyada hai. Employment aur unemployment ke izafay ke natije mein participation rate bhi barh gaya, jo ke un logon ka proportion hai jo kaam kar rahe hain ya kaam dhoondh rahe hain."


Technical Outlook
Jumay ke din, AUD/USD pair kareeb 0.6220 par trade kar raha hai aur daily chart ke declining channel ko todhne ki koshish mein hai. Agar yeh breakthrough hota hai, toh maujooda negative bias kamzor ho sakta hai. 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) bhi upward trend dikhata hai jo 50 level ki taraf barhne ka ishara deta hai, jo ke recovery momentum ka signal hai.

0.6220 ke kareeb, declining channel ka upar ka hisa AUD/USD pair ke liye foran resistance banata hai. Neeche ki taraf, 14-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) jo 0.6213 par hai aur nine-day EMA jo 0.6206 par hai, early support faraham karte hain. Ek mazboot support level kareeb 0.5920 mark par hai, jo ke declining channel ka neeche ka hisa hai.

New Zealand Dollar (NZD) do din se lagataar US Dollar (USD) ke muqable kamzor ho raha hai aur Friday ko European session ke doran qareeban 0.5590 ke qareeb trade kar raha tha. Ye girawat zyadatar US Dollar ki mazbooti ki waja se hui hai. US Dollar Index (DXY), jo USD ki qeemat ko ek currency basket ke muqable mapta hai, apni chaar din ki girawat ke baad 109.20 ki taraf barhta nazar aya. Lekin dollar ki mazbooti ko kamzor US economic data ne thoda rok diya.

US retail sales December mein sirf 0.4% month-over-month barhein, jo market ki umeed 0.6% aur pichle maheenay ke revised figure 0.8% se neeche the. Isi tarah, core US Consumer Price Index (CPI), jo khurak aur energy ki prices ko chhod kar dekhta hai, December mein 3.2% year-over-year barha, jo market expectations aur pichle maheenay ke reading 3.3% se thoda kam tha.

In readings ne market ke is andazay ko mazboot kiya ke Federal Reserve (Fed) is saal economic slowdown se bachne ke liye do dafa interest rates cut karega. In factors ne USD par dabao dala, lekin NZD/USD pair bhi mushkilat ka shikar raha, China ke kuch positive economic news ke bawajood, jo New Zealand ka ek bara trading partner hai.

China ka GDP growth fourth quarter 2024 mein market expectations aur pichle quarter ke muqable kaafi behtareen raha, jo 5.4% year-over-year barha. Ye growth pehle ke 4.6% aur expected 5% se zyada tha. Mazboot Chinese economic performance NZD ke liye aam tor par support ka kaam karta hai.

Technical analysis ke mutabiq, NZD/USD pair mix signals show kar raha tha. Relative Strength Index (RSI) 40 level tak gir gaya, jo bearish pressure ke barhne ka ishara karta hai. Magar Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram ab bhi green bars generate kar raha tha, jo ye dikhata hai ke underlying bullish momentum ab bhi hai, magar zyada confident nahi.

RSI aur MACD ke darmiyan ye farq market sentiment ki nazakat ko highlight karta hai. Agar NZD/USD pair 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), jo is waqt qareeban 0.5600 par hai, ke qareeb consolidate karta hai, to buyers pair ko upar le jane ki koshish karenge. Pehle 0.5630 ka resistance level ho sakta hai, uske baad 0.5650 ki taraf move karne ke chances hain. Dusri taraf, agar 0.5580 support level tor diya gaya to bears ko mazbooti mil sakti hai, jo 0.5550 tak girawat ka darwaza khol sakta hai aur pair ke emerging support base ko kamzor kar sakta hai.

AUD/USD pair is waqt lagbhag 0.6220 par trade kar raha hai Thursday ke din, aur yeh daily chart par descending channel ke upar break karne ki koshish kar raha hai. Agar yeh break successful hoti hai, toh yeh bearish bias ko kamzor kar sakti hai. 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) dheere dheere 50 level ki taraf barh raha hai, jo yeh signal de raha hai ke market mein recovery ka process shuru ho sakta hai.
Is waqt AUD/USD pair ka pehla resistance descending channel ki upper boundary ke paas hai, jo lagbhag 0.6220 ke aas-paas mojood hai. Yeh resistance level kaafi important hai, kyunki agar price is level ke upar breakout karta hai, toh yeh bullish momentum ko mazboot kar sakta hai aur market mein upward movement ka signal de sakta hai. Traders ka focus is baat par hoga ke price kya iss level ke upar sustain kar sakta hai ya nahi.

Support levels ki baat ki jaye toh, AUD/USD pair pehla support 14-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke aas-paas test kar sakta hai, jo abhi lagbhag 0.6214 par hai. Iske baad dusra support 9-day EMA ke paas hai, jo takreeban 0.6206 ke level par hai. Yeh short-term EMAs support ke lihaaz se kaafi aham hai, kyunki trending markets mein yeh dynamic support ka kaam karte hain.

Agar yeh support levels hold nahi karte, toh price descending channel ki lower boundary ki taraf gir sakta hai, jo takreeban 0.5920 ke kareeb hai. Yeh level kaafi significant hai, aur agar price iske neeche girta hai toh bearish trend mazboot ho sakta hai. Yeh pair abhi ek critical stage par hai, aur inhi levels par focus karte hue price action ko closely monitor karna zaroori hai