Dollar Index (DXY) ek medium aur long-term sideways trend mein hai, jo kai saalon se chala aa raha hai. Late July se ye steady taur par down leg unfold kar raha hai is range ke andar, jahan 105 ke aas paas ceiling hai aur 100 ke level par floor. Abhi bhi price action bearish hai aur koi strong bullish reversal patterns nazar nahi aa rahe – na toh shape mein aur na hi candlestick variety mein. Ye is baat ki nishani hai ke downside ka risk zyada hai. Agar ye south ki taraf continue karta hai, toh DXY angle support level 99.57 par pohoch sakta hai, jo July 2023 ka low hai. Ye is range ka sabse neeche wala floor hai – agar yahan se neeche break hota hai toh ye kaafi bearish sign hoga Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum indicator daily aur weekly charts par oversold hai (ye chart nahi dikhaya gaya). Iska matlab hai ke prices downside par overextended ho chuki hain aur pull back ka risk zyada hai Lekin, RSI abhi tak oversold zone se bahar nahi aaya, jo ke buy signal ke liye zaroori prerequisite hai. Filhaal, RSI ka oversold hona sirf bears ko yeh warning deta hai ke woh apni short positions mein izafa na karein, lekin reversal signal dene ke liye isko oversold zone se fully nikalna padega 100 ka level important hai. Yeh sirf psychological level hi nahi, balki yeh ek major historical support level bhi hai jo 2023 se le kar pehle teen dafa girti hui prices ko support de chuka hai (neeche gheray hue). Sawal yeh hai ke kya is dafa 100 dobara rescue karega NZD/USD bar bar us range ki ceiling ko push kar raha hai jo usne spring mein shuru ki thi. Agar August 20 ka high breach hota hai toh yeh ek higher high banayega aur range se breakout ko confirm karega Aisi move se substantial upside follow-through expected hogi NZD/USD apni sideways range ki ceiling par knock kar raha hai jo usne spring se lekar ab tak establish ki thi. Agar August 20 ka high breach hota hai toh yeh upside breakout confirm karega aur iske baad substantial gains expect kiye ja sakte hain. August 20 ko yeh pair apni range ki ceiling temporarily breach kar gaya tha jab yeh 0.6248 ke high tak pohcha, lekin phir rapidly wapas gir gaya aur ek bearish Gravestone Doji candlestick bana. Iske baad ek red down candle aayi jo ke near-term weakness ki nishani thi, lekin pa
ir kuch points gir kar 0.6109 August 22 swing low tak aaya Tab se NZD/USD recover ho gaya hai aur ab phir se range ceiling ko test kar raha hai
Agar 0.6248 August 20 ka high breach hota hai toh yeh range se decisive breakout ko signal karega. Aisi move ke baad upside target activate ho jayega, jo range ki height ka 0.618 ratio le kar aur isko higher extrapolate kar ke nikala gaya hai. Yeh 0.6448 ka upside target data hai (bold rectangle). Ek aur conservative target 0.6409 (December 2023 ka high) par hai Aisi move short-term trend ko sideways se bullish mein badal dega Agar 0.6109 swing low (August 23 ka low) breach hota hai, toh yeh range ka sideways trend dobara confirm karega. Iske baad pair phir se range floor ke aas paas, jo 0.5850 hai, move kar sakt
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ir kuch points gir kar 0.6109 August 22 swing low tak aaya Tab se NZD/USD recover ho gaya hai aur ab phir se range ceiling ko test kar raha hai
Agar 0.6248 August 20 ka high breach hota hai toh yeh range se decisive breakout ko signal karega. Aisi move ke baad upside target activate ho jayega, jo range ki height ka 0.618 ratio le kar aur isko higher extrapolate kar ke nikala gaya hai. Yeh 0.6448 ka upside target data hai (bold rectangle). Ek aur conservative target 0.6409 (December 2023 ka high) par hai Aisi move short-term trend ko sideways se bullish mein badal dega Agar 0.6109 swing low (August 23 ka low) breach hota hai, toh yeh range ka sideways trend dobara confirm karega. Iske baad pair phir se range floor ke aas paas, jo 0.5850 hai, move kar sakt
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