نیوزی لینڈ ڈالر اور امریکی ڈالر کی شرح تبادلہ

Dollar Index (DXY) ek medium aur long-term sideways trend mein hai, jo kai saalon se chala aa raha hai. Late July se ye steady taur par down leg unfold kar raha hai is range ke andar, jahan 105 ke aas paas ceiling hai aur 100 ke level par floor. Abhi bhi price action bearish hai aur koi strong bullish reversal patterns nazar nahi aa rahe – na toh shape mein aur na hi candlestick variety mein. Ye is baat ki nishani hai ke downside ka risk zyada hai. Agar ye south ki taraf continue karta hai, toh DXY angle support level 99.57 par pohoch sakta hai, jo July 2023 ka low hai. Ye is range ka sabse neeche wala floor hai – agar yahan se neeche break hota hai toh ye kaafi bearish sign hoga Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum indicator daily aur weekly charts par oversold hai (ye chart nahi dikhaya gaya). Iska matlab hai ke prices downside par overextended ho chuki hain aur pull back ka risk zyada hai Lekin, RSI abhi tak oversold zone se bahar nahi aaya, jo ke buy signal ke liye zaroori prerequisite hai. Filhaal, RSI ka oversold hona sirf bears ko yeh warning deta hai ke woh apni short positions mein izafa na karein, lekin reversal signal dene ke liye isko oversold zone se fully nikalna padega 100 ka level important hai. Yeh sirf psychological level hi nahi, balki yeh ek major historical support level bhi hai jo 2023 se le kar pehle teen dafa girti hui prices ko support de chuka hai (neeche gheray hue). Sawal yeh hai ke kya is dafa 100 dobara rescue karega NZD/USD bar bar us range ki ceiling ko push kar raha hai jo usne spring mein shuru ki thi. Agar August 20 ka high breach hota hai toh yeh ek higher high banayega aur range se breakout ko confirm karega Aisi move se substantial upside follow-through expected hogi NZD/USD apni sideways range ki ceiling par knock kar raha hai jo usne spring se lekar ab tak establish ki thi. Agar August 20 ka high breach hota hai toh yeh upside breakout confirm karega aur iske baad substantial gains expect kiye ja sakte hain. August 20 ko yeh pair apni range ki ceiling temporarily breach kar gaya tha jab yeh 0.6248 ke high tak pohcha, lekin phir rapidly wapas gir gaya aur ek bearish Gravestone Doji candlestick bana. Iske baad ek red down candle aayi jo ke near-term weakness ki nishani thi, lekin pa


ir kuch points gir kar 0.6109 August 22 swing low tak aaya Tab se NZD/USD recover ho gaya hai aur ab phir se range ceiling ko test kar raha hai
Agar 0.6248 August 20 ka high breach hota hai toh yeh range se decisive breakout ko signal karega. Aisi move ke baad upside target activate ho jayega, jo range ki height ka 0.618 ratio le kar aur isko higher extrapolate kar ke nikala gaya hai. Yeh 0.6448 ka upside target data hai (bold rectangle). Ek aur conservative target 0.6409 (December 2023 ka high) par hai Aisi move short-term trend ko sideways se bullish mein badal dega Agar 0.6109 swing low (August 23 ka low) breach hota hai, toh yeh range ka sideways trend dobara confirm karega. Iske baad pair phir se range floor ke aas paas, jo 0.5850 hai, move kar sakt

**NZD/USD: Ek Hourly Road Map ya Trading Plan**

Aaj ke market ko monitor karte hue, hum dekh rahe hain ke bulls ke liye conditions favorable ho rahi hain. Filhal, NZD/USD aur kuch currency pairs mein downtrend dekha ja raha hai. Pichle mahine mein United States Dollar ki value gir rahi thi, lekin ab ye recently strength regain kar raha hai aur apni peechli losses cover kar raha hai. U.S. Dollar ke pehle weak hone ki wajah mein kuch factors shamil hain, jaise ke USA ke election ke around political uncertainty aur ek technical oversold scenario jo currency ko neeche push kar raha tha. Ab jab market conditions shift ho gayi hain, U.S. Dollar recovery ke signs dikhata hua nazar aa raha hai, jo NZD/USD jese pairs ko impact kar raha hai.

NZD/USD ke latest market updates ke mutabiq, mera recommendation hai ke sell entry consider ki jaye. Filhal ke price action se ye lag raha hai ke sellers ko potential advantage mil sakta hai, khaaskar agar pair 0.6133 ke aas-paas support level ko test karta hai. Agar ye support level break hota hai, to isse further downside pressure ka signal mil sakta hai, jisse sellers market ke bearish momentum se profit kama sakte hain. NZD/USD ko influence karne wale dusre factors ko bhi monitor karna zaroori hai, jaise ke global economic data aur geopolitical developments, jo U.S. Dollar ki performance ko agle dinon mein impact kar sakti hain.

Akhir mein, NZD/USD ke bulls ko apne positions ko maintain karne mein challenges ka samna karna pad sakta hai. Agar support level breach hota hai, to isse bulls ko further losses face karna pad sakta hai, aur NZD/USD ke aur girne ke chances barh sakte hain. In considerations ko dhyan mein rakhte hue, jo log current environment mein sell karna chahte hain, unhe ek disciplined approach implement karni chahiye taake wo downtrend ka maximum benefit utha sakein aur potential risks ko manage kar sakein. Aakhri aspect mein, market conditions NZD/USD ke liye aaj ke din bulls ke favor mein nahi rah sakti.

Good Luck!

NZDUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: NZDUSD H4 time frame par, iska value various factors se influence hota hai, jaise economic data dono countries se, commodity prices (especially dairy products, jo New Zealand ka major export hai), aur overall global market sentiment.

Currently, pair 0.6024 mark par trade kar raha hai, jo traders ke liye recent sessions mein interesting level hai. H4 time frame ko analyze karne par, yeh evident ho jata hai ki NZDUSD downward trend mein hai. Yeh bearish momentum lower highs aur lower lows ki series se dekha ja sakta hai chart par, jo sellers ko favor karne wala market hai.

Current price movement se pata chalta hai ki bears control mein hain, price ko down kar rahe hain market various economic aur technical factors ko react karne ke liye.

Given current trend, traders ke liye several potential selling opportunities hain. Firstly, any retracement ya pullback resistance levels ki taraf se ideal entry point ho sakta hai sellers ke liye trend ko join karne ke liye. Agar price 0.6050-0.6070 area mein retrace karta hai, jahan previous support levels ab resistance mein convert ho gaye hain, yeh strategic point ho sakta hai short positions enter karne ke liye.

Traders bhi candlestick patterns se confirmation dhoond sakte hain, jaise bearish engulfing candles ya shooting stars, jo downward trend ko continue karne ka signal de sakte hain brief rally ke baad.

Outlook bearish dikha raha hai, lekin trading ko well-defined risk management strategy ke saath approach karna zaroori hai. Forex market inherently volatile hai, aur even most well-formed trends sharp reversals experience kar sakte hain. Stop-loss orders ko set karna crucial hai capital ko protect karne ke liye

NZD/USD Pair Review

Aaj hum NZDUSD currency pair ka D1 period chart dekhenge. Kal market ne zyada movement nahi dikhayi, aur pichle hafte price ne growth continue ki, lekin sirf New Zealand dollar ke against nahi, balki American dollar puri market mein kamzor hota nazar aaya. Unhone older weekly waves ki tops par ek descending line banai thi, lekin jab tak US ki important khabrein jumay ko nahi ayi, tab tak decline ka signal tha. Phir US Federal Reserve ke head, Jerome Powell ka khitaab tha aur saath hi mein US mein nai housing sales ka data bhi aaya. Is khabar ke baad price ne tezi se upar ki taraf jump kiya aur older waves ki descending line ko tod diya. Abhi ke liye price 0.6221 ki resistance se thoda upar ruki hui hai. Kyun ke price is level ke beyond chali gayi hai, ye ek potential sales zone hai. Ye price ziada door tak nahi jayegi, kyun ke ascending wave kaafi lambi hogayi hai aur isko correction ki zaroorat hai. Is ke ilawa, CCI indicator upper overheating zone mein hai aur nikalne ke liye tayar hai.

Agar aap younger four-hour period ko dekhein to MACD indicator par bearish divergence dikhayi de rahi hai, jo ek strong signal hai ke decline hoga. Mera khayal hai ke ye signal kaam karega. Aur yeh is liye bhi kaam karega kyun ke doosri currency pairs bhi US dollar ke against gayi hain aur ab unhe bhi ek corrective rollback ki zaroorat hai. Jab yeh price upper top ke beyond chali gayi, to ab aap mirror level ka formation dekh sakte hain, for example, hourly chart par, taake support resistance mein badal jaye aur downward movement ke liye kaam kiya ja sake. Downward correction ka minimum target support level 0.6159 hai jo closing prices par bana hai. Shayad itne zyada growth ke baad, hum aur deep correction dekhenge, lekin yeh minimum target hai jo most likely achieve hoga.




Aaj ki khabron mein sirf ek important news hai jo 17:00 par aye gi, aur wo hai US Consumer Confidence Index from CB.

NZD/USD Forum Analysis

Hafte ke aaghaz mein US dollar ki kamzori ke saath, prices mein izafa dekhne ko mila hai. Buyers ka irada lagta hai ke aaj market ko control karne ka hai. Pichle hafte ke price movement pattern ke mutabiq, mujhe lagta hai ke price trend bullish taraf jaane ka rujhan rakhti hai. Mere mutabiq, yeh mumkin hai ke NzdUsd pair bullish trend ko continue kare kyun ke buyers ki taqat abhi bhi kaafi strong hai, jaise ke kal raat ke start mein dekha gaya. Agar price 0.6200 zone mein defense line ko breach karne mein kaamyab hoti hai, to market situation abhi bhi larger time frame ke trend conditions ke mutabiq hai, aur yeh trend bullish nazar aa raha hai.

Agar mein future ko monitor karoon, to abhi bhi Uptrend ka chance hai, khas tor par jab tak candlestick 100 period ke simple moving average zone ke upar rehne ki koshish kar raha hai. Aur agar Stochastic Indicator 5,3,3 ka istemal kiya jaye, to yeh zone 20 ko touch karta hai jo shuru mein downward correction ka ishara hai, aur yeh situation weekly price movement se bhi zahir hoti hai.




Market trend ke context mein, yeh chance hai ke trend bullish direction mein continue kare. Agle trades mein buying flow ka izafa ho sakta hai jo prices ko aur upar le ja sakta hai. Aaj ke haalaat ko dekhte hue, aisa lagta hai ke market bullish side ki taraf apni journey continue karne ka mauqa rakhti hai. Agar market upward movement ko support karti hai, to is hafte ke trading period ke liye main focus rakh raha hoon ke market ki upward movement ka intezar karoon. Isliye, buy option ko choose karne ke liye considerations zaroor hain.

Trading Recommendation: BUY (4 Hour Chart)

NZD/USD Currency Pair Analysis

Salam mohtaram forum members!

Aaj mein NZD/USD currency pair ka H1 chart par detailed analysis pesh kar raha hoon. Is waqt, pair 0.5920 par trade kar raha hai. Asian trading session mein humein ek kaafi aham resistance level 0.5956 par dekhne ko mila. Price ne is resistance ko break karne ki koshish ki, lekin fail hone ke baad downward movement start hui, aur lowest point 0.5918 tak pohanch gayi.

Agar hum H1 chart ka ghor se jaiza len, to yeh clear hota hai ke NZD/USD pair ko 0.5956 ke resistance ko cross karne mein consistent problems ka samna hai. Yeh level ek significant barrier ke tor par samne aya hai, jo strong selling pressure ya is point ke beyond buying strength ki kami ko zahir karta hai. Resistance breach na kar pana short-term market mein bearish sentiment ko zahir karta hai.

Jab price ne decline shuru kiya, to usne support level 0.5918 ko test kiya. Yeh level kaafi aham hai kyun ke yeh recent trading range ki lower boundary ko represent karta hai. Market ka is support level par reaction future ka potential move decide karega. Agar price is level par stabilise ya rebound karti hai, to hum 0.5956 resistance ka dubara test karne ki umeed kar sakte hain. Wagarna, agar price 0.5918 ke neeche break hoti hai, to further bearish momentum aa sakti hai, jo price ko agle support levels ki taraf le ja sakti hai.

RSI aur MACD Indicators:
H1 chart par, Relative Strength Index (RSI) aur Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicators se mazeed insights milti hain. Agar RSI oversold conditions ko zahir karta hai, to yeh ek potential reversal ya kam az kam downtrend ka temporary halt ho sakta hai. Isi tarah, agar MACD line signal line ke neeche cross karti hai, to yeh bearish outlook ko reinforce karega, jabke opposite crossover ek momentum shift ko zahir karega.




Summary:
NZD/USD pair ki current position 0.5920 par aur recent price action 0.5956 ke resistance aur 0.5918 ke support ko highlight karti hai. In levels par price ka reaction short-term trend ko shape karega. Traders ko in levels par breakout ya rebound ko closely monitor karna chahiye aur broader market context ko apni trading strategies mein madde nazar rakhna chahiye.

NZD/USD Pair Technical Analysis

Technical indicators trading mein informed decisions lene mein traders ki madad karte hain. Ek widely used indicator Moving Average (MA) hai. Moving averages price data ko ek specific period ke liye smooth karte hain, jo market ki overall direction identify karne mein madadgar hoti hai. Yeh tool khaas tor par trends detect karne aur un par trading decisions lene ke liye kaam aata hai. Hamari current analysis ke mutabiq, moving average is baat ka ishara kar raha hai ke market upward trajectory par hai. Is liye, meri recommendation yeh hai ke buying position ko barqarar rakha jaye ya trading language mein baat ki jaye to upward movement ke liye position hold ki jaye.

Halanki, NZD/USD currency pair abhi bearish trend mein hai aur dheere dheere move kar raha hai, kuch aise factors hain jo significant movement ka ishara de rahe hain. Economic indicators, central bank policies, global economic conditions, geopolitical events, technical analysis, aur market sentiment sabhi mil kar is pair ki future direction ko tay karenge. Traders aur investors ko in factors par nazar rakhni chahiye, taake forex market mein opportunities aur risks ka intezar kar sakein aur unka response de sakein.

Summary:
Halanki NZD/USD pair ne pichle hafte ke aakhri dino mein kuch bullish signals diye hain, jese ke bullish engulfing pattern aur US dollar ki overall kamzori, lekin price abhi bhi critical resistance level 0.6073 ke neeche hai. Overall trend downward hai, aur 0.6073 par resistance ab bhi ek bara barrier bana hua hai. Traders ko ehtiyat se kaam lena chahiye aur broader trend aur resistance levels ko trading decisions lete waqt madde nazar rakhna chahiye. Support level 0.5977 par focus rakha jaye, aur koi bhi nayi developments ko closely monitor kiya jaye taake yeh dekha ja sake ke pair koi bullish momentum sustain kar pa raha hai ya bearish trend dubara shuru hoga.




Conclusion:
Technical indicators abhi ke liye NZD/USD currency pair ke liye bullish view ko support karte hain, jisme TMA, MACD, aur OsMA sab upward momentum ka ishara kar rahe hain. Magar, trading opportunities ko maximize karne aur risks ko effectively manage karne ke liye yeh behtar hoga ke price retracement ka intezar kiya jaye jo TMA indicator ke middle level tak aaye. Is approach se na sirf entry points behtar hote hain, balki trading mein prudent risk management practices ke saath bhi hum ahang ho jate hain.

AUD/USD pair ne kuch arse se aik range mein trade kiya hai, aur meri analysis is baat ki nishandahi karti hai ke yeh pair support level 0.65209 tak gir sakta hai. Yeh level historically ek mazboot base provide karta hai, jo ke take-profit targets set karne ke liye bohot ahem hai. Yeh strategy market ke existing downward trend ke continuation ke expect karne ke mutabiq hai. Lekin, market mein kisi bhi unexpected shift ki surat mein stop-loss mechanisms ko activate karna bohot zaroori hoga taake possible losses se bacha ja sake. Forex markets ki dynamic nature ka demand hota hai ke trader flexible rahe, aur naye resistance levels ko samajhna ek strong trading strategy ka important hissa hota hai. Agar resistance aajata hai, to 0.65379 level pe buy karna ek viable option ban sakta hai Main buy karne ka soch raha hoon, lekin market correction ka intezar karunga. Jab channel ke lower limit, 0.60205 level, tak pohanch jaye, tab main yeh soch raha hoon ke kahan se buy karna hai. Main market ke against short trades mein enter nahi karna chahta, aur jab tak channel grow kar raha hai, iski zaroorat bhi nahi hai. Mere liye market mein enter karne ka sabse sahi tareeqa yeh hoga ke main channel ke lower limit se correction ke saath enter karoon. Aisa entry loss ko minimize karne mein madad karega agar koi false entry ho jaye, jisme har trader ko mushkil hoti hai. Upper limit 0.60438 level par determine ki jayegi, aur upper part of the channel ko determine karne ke baad, ek possible decline in the correction ka sochna worth hoga. Correction ki buniyad wo fluctuations hain jo channel ke along determine hoti hain.
Hourly chart par linear regression channel ka direction H4 ke saath same hai, jo bullish interest ko barhata hai. Dono channels ke readings ke mutabiq, priority buy karne ki hai. Selling ke liye conditions create nahi hui hain. Iske liye, kam se kam H4 channel ko neeche ki taraf dekhna zaroori hai, tab aap short trades mein enter karne ki koshish kar sakte hain. Lekin, jaise ke aap pictures mein dekh sakte hain, dono channels upar ki taraf dekh rahe hain, jo market ko neeche le jane ka chance nahi de rahe. Buyers market ko push kar rahe hain, isliye yeh zyada sahi hai ke channel ki lower border 0.60024 se unka saath diya jaye, wahan buying ke liye zyada profitable entry point milta hai. Is point ke neeche sales shuru hongi, aur purchases ka flow banega. Main plan kar raha hoon ke upper part of the channel tak, jo 0.60465 hai, grow karoon. Peaks pe kaam karte hue, bull apni benchmark tak pohanchega, aur phir ek decline ho sakta hai. Main us decline ko pass kar dunga. Aur phir se decline se, main growth ke direction mein purchases dekh raha hoon.
NZD/USD ke liye crucial resistance level 0.6077 hai. Agar market price is 0.6077 resistance level ko break karta hai, to price upar ja sakti hai, jaise ke maine chart pe mark kiya hai. Lekin agar price zone 0.6543 successfully breakout hoti hai, to NZD/USD apni bullish movement ko resistance sector 0.7123 ki taraf continue kar sakta hai. Dusri taraf, NZD/USD ke liye crucial support level 0.5984 hai. Agar market price yahan se neeche jata hai aur 0.5984 support level ko cross karta hai, to market price aur neeche ja sakti hai, aur market neeche ja sakta hai, jaise ke maine chart pe mark kiya hai. Lekin agar price zone 0.5909 successfully breakout hoti hai, to NZD/USD apni bearish movement ko support sector 0.5545 ki taraf continue kar sakta hai. Larger time frame aksar forex market ke baare mein sahi signals predict karta hai. Isliye, mujhe umeed hai ke is haftay NZD/USD ka market price 0.5984 zone ko cross karega. Yeh baad mein ek continuation pattern bhi create kar sakta hai

NZD/USD H4 Analysis

Aaj mein NZD/USD currency pair ka H4 chart ke mutabiq ek analytical review pesh kar raha hoon. Filhal, yeh trading instrument 0.5920 par position mein hai. Aaj ke Asian trading session mein, pair ko 0.5956 par resistance ka samna tha. Is level ko cross karne mein nakami ke baad, price downward move karna shuru hui aur eventually 0.5918 tak gir gayi.

Abhi ke market haalaat aur movements ko dekhte hue, yeh lagta hai ke price 0.5900 level ke neeche ja sakti hai. Yeh is baat ka ishara karta hai ke further decline ka imkan hai, aur bearish trend ka silsila continue hoga. Jaise jaise situation evolve hui, NZD/USD pair ne sirf 0.5900 level ko nahi chooa, balki is se bhi neeche gir kar 0.5876 tak trade kar rahi hai. Filhal, chart par ek reversal zone dekhne ko mil raha hai, jo 0.5859 aur 0.5886 ke darmiyan hai. Yeh samajhna zaroori hai ke agar price 0.5886 resistance level ke upar jaaye aur ek one-hour candle is level ke upar close ho, to yeh current decline sirf stop collection ho sakta hai. Iska matlab ho sakta hai ke rebound ho aur price 0.5978 resistance level ki taraf wapas uthe. Aisi surat mein, stop-loss orders lagana munasib hoga.

Sell Position:
Maine ek sell position open ki hai kyun ke current price white box area ke level 0.6213 mein dakhil ho gayi hai. Agar nzdusd is area se ek bearish candlestick banata hai, to price 0.6060 tak gir sakti hai, jo baad mein RBS (Resistance Becomes Support) area ke tor par kaam karega, aur hum isay TP1 level bana sakte hain. Agar price 0.6060 se neeche jati hai, to hum sell position ko hold kar sakte hain jab tak ke price 0.5835 zone tak nahi pohanchti, jise hum agle hafte ke trading mein TP2 level bana sakte hain.

Agar worst case scenario ko dekha jaye, aur white box area rejection na de paaye, to nzdusd ka bullish confirmation shuru ho jayega, aur hume sell position close karni hogi. Phir recovery ke liye hume buy position open karni hogi, jiska target 0.6330 ke resistance area tak ka hoga.




Shukriya dosto, jo meri explanation ko sunne ka waqt diya. Umeed hai ke hum agle hafte nzdusd movement par achi profit optimization kar sakein.

NZD/USD H1 Chart Analysis

Aaj ke din seller distraction dekhne ko mili, jahan price Asian session mein negatively move hui. Price, jo ke Wednesday ke daily open 0.6143 se shuru hui thi, 0.6158 se neeche chali gayi. Sellers ne dominate karne ki koshish ki aur price ne 0.6144 area ko successfully breach kar ke neeche jana shuru kiya. Jab price EMA 36 H1 area ko chooa, jo 0.6127 - 0.6132 ke aas paas tha, to resistance ka samna hua. Kai martaba price ne is area ko break karne ki koshish ki, lekin EMA 36 H1 ne short-term dynamic support ka kirdar ada kiya. Aakhir kar price upar ki taraf chalna shuru hui jab confirmed rejection nazar aya. Upar jane ki koshish mein, price sirf 0.6172 tak pohanch payi, aur market Wednesday ke trading session mein 0.6149 par close hui.

EMA 200 H1 abhi bhi price movement ke neeche hai, aur EMA 12 aur EMA 36 H1 ab tak koi aisi tabdeeli nahi dikhate jo yeh zahir kare ke H1 mein bullish trend abhi bhi mojood hai. Haan, buyers ka push kam hota dikhayi de raha hai, lekin EMA 36 H1 ab bhi ek obstacle bana hua hai. Abhi ke liye price 0.6149 ke Thursday ke daily open ke aas paas support aur resistance ke darmiyan upar neeche ho rahi hai, jo ke 0.6130 aur 0.6169 par hai, aur EMA 12 aur EMA 36 H1 thoda narrow ho rahe hain. Agar yeh dono chhoti EMAs ek cross banati hain, to ek nayi movement direction samne aayegi.

NZD/USD Pair ka Hal:

NZD/USD pair apne pehle ke downward trend se ek potential turnaround ka ishara de raha hai. Average Directional Movement Index kam ho raha hai, jo downtrend ke kamzor hone ka ishara hai. Relative Strength Index (RSI) 50 level ke upar jane ki koshish kar raha hai, jo momentum mein shift ka pata de sakta hai. Stochastic oscillator bhi upar ja raha hai, jo mazeed upward movement ki support kar raha hai. Agle hafte pair ke volatile rehne ka imkan hai, jahan RBNZ interest rate decision aur US consumer price index data ke key events se significant price movements ho sakti hain.




Agar positive momentum barqarar rehti hai, to pair 0.6037-0.6092 resistance level ko target kar sakta hai, jo 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, pehle ke support levels, aur key moving averages ko shaamil karta hai. Agar price is resistance ko successfully break karti hai, to 2019 ke October low 0.6198 tak jaane ka rasta khul sakta hai. Lekin ehtiyat baratna zaroori hai, kyun ke market conditions rapidly change ho sakti hain. Traders ko economic indicators, central bank policies, aur geopolitical developments ko closely monitor karna chahiye taake NZD/USD exchange rate par asraat ko samajh sakein.

NZD/USD D1 Chart Analysis

NZD/USD currency pair ne recent trading sessions mein positive trajectory dikhayi hai, jiska sabab ziada tar Federal Reserve ke dovish hone ki umeed hai. Lekin, pair ka upward momentum kuch challenges ka samna kar raha hai, jahan dono, America aur New Zealand ke economic uncertainties iske gains ko slow kar sakti hain. Market mein anticipation barh rahi hai ke Federal Reserve September mein rate cut karega, aur yeh 25 basis points se ziada ho sakta hai, jo ke New Zealand dollar ke liye ek bohot bara faida hai. U.S. job growth mein kami ke baad yeh umeed aur bhi ziada ho gayi hai. Halanki, second quarter ke retail sales data mein thori contraction hui hai, lekin is se New Zealand economy ke hawale se positive sentiment par ziada asar nahi para. Lekin, U.S. recession ke potential concerns aur China ke economic challenges ne ek risk-averse environment paida kar diya hai, jo ke risk-sensitive New Zealand dollar par negative asar daal sakti hai.

RBNZ (Reserve Bank of New Zealand) ka recent rate cut aur cautious outlook yeh suggest karta hai ke future mein mazeed monetary easing ho sakti hai, jo ke NZD/USD ki upside potential ko limit kar sakti hai.

Chart ka Analysis:

Is mahine ke aghaz se NZD/USD pair steadily recover kar raha tha jab usne 2024 ke naye low 0.5848 par apna base banaya. Pair ne recently 200-day simple moving average (SMA) ko break kiya aur ek nayi two-month high attain ki, jo bullish outlook ko mazid mazbooti de raha hai. Short-term mein, pair ka immediate resistance 0.6170 par hai, jo ke 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level hai downtrend ke dauran jo 0.6368 se 0.5851 tak tha. Is hurdle ko overcome karne ke liye, bullish forces ko June ka high 0.6220 break karna hoga. Iske baad, 78.6% Fibonacci level 0.6257 par ek aur obstacle ho sakta hai.




Doosri taraf, agar downside move hoti hai, to pair 50.0% Fibonacci level 0.6109 tak neeche ja sakta hai. Agar yeh area break hota hai, to pair 38.2% Fibonacci level 0.6048 tak neeche ja sakta hai, jo pehle January aur June mein strong support ka kirdar ada kar chuka hai. Agar price 38.2% level se neeche girti hai, to 23.6% Fibonacci level 0.5972 par additional support mil sakta hai.

NZD/USD H1 Chart Analysis

Main abhi New Zealand Dollar aur USD pair ko hourly chart par dekh raha hoon. Is pair ne 0.60638 ka resistance break kiya, aur us waqt Bank of New Zealand ne apna bayan diya. Jaisay hi pair neeche gaya, Bank of New Zealand ne interest rates cut kiye, jo market ke liye unexpected thay. Market ko umeed thi ke Bank of New Zealand interest rates 40% se 50% tak cut karega. Pair ne support 0.59681 par touch kiya, aur mujhe laga ke pair mazeed neeche jayega, kyun ke interest rate cut ki wajah se market mein selling pressure barh gaya tha. Mujhe laga ke pair jo range mein trade kar raha tha, wo thoda aur neeche jaayega, lekin surprisingly, pair ne range ke upper limits ko bhi cross kar diya aur resistance 0.62205 par pohnch gaya. Ye bilkul unexpected tha.

Main expect kar raha tha ke pair upper bounds par reversal karega, jo ke 0.61526 par resistance hai. Lekin, America mein inflation mein koi khas kami nahi hui. Sirf 0.1% decline ka matlab yeh nahi ke status quo change ho gaya hai, is liye mein ab bhi decline ka intezar kar raha hoon, kyun ke mujhe koi waja nazar nahi aati ke upward trend continue rahe.

Chart ka Halat:

Is mahine ke aghaz se NZD/USD pair steadily recover kar raha tha jab usne naye 2024 ke lows 0.5848 par apna base banaya. Pair ne recently 200-day simple moving average (SMA) ko break kiya aur ek nayi two-month high attain ki, jo bullish outlook ko mazid mazboot banata hai. Short term mein, pair ka immediate resistance 0.6170 par expected hai, jo 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level hai downtrend ka, jo 0.6368 se 0.5851 tak chala. Agar bullish forces is hurdle ko break karti hain, to next target 0.6220 ka June high hoga. Uske baad, 78.6% Fibonacci level 0.6257 par ek aur obstacle ho sakta hai.

Doosri taraf, agar downside move hoti hai, to pair 50.0% Fibonacci level 0.6109 tak neeche ja sakta hai. Agar yeh level break hota hai, to 38.2% Fibonacci level 0.6048 tak neeche ja sakta hai, jo January aur June mein strong support ka kirdar ada kar chuka hai. Agar price 38.2% se neeche girti hai, to 23.6% Fibonacci level 0.5972 additional support de sakta hai.




Four hourly timeframe mein, linear regression channel ek upward movement show kar raha hai jo buyers ki activity ko highlight karta hai. Lekin buyers ki weakness us waqt samne aayi jab unhone 0.59421 level ko chor diya jab sellers ne is level ko break kiya. Yeh market mein bears ke strong interest ko show karta hai, jo H1 channel ko downward reverse karne ki koshish kar rahe hain. Agar channel neeche jata hai, to sellers dominate karenge aur trend mein change aasakta hai. Strong bears ka target 0.58630 tak pochna hoga. Lekin agar market H1 chart par 0.59704 aur 0.59421 levels ko break kar deta hai, to bulls apni trend movement ko wapis regain kar lenge, aur is baat ko trading mein madde nazar rakhna chahiye.

US Stock Markets ka Hal

Juma ke din, US stock markets mein significant gains dekhe gaye jab Federal Reserve ke Chairman Jerome Powell ne September mein rate cut ki umeedon ko phir se confirm kiya. Powell ka kehna tha ke "ab waqt hai rates cut karne ka". Jackson Hole Economic Symposium mein apne intehai ahm speech ke doran, Powell ne kaha ke ab federal funds target rate ko cut karne ka waqt hai. Unhoon ne yeh bhi kaha ke mehngai barhne ka khauf kam ho gaya hai, jis ki wajah se Fed apni monetary policy mein zyada flexibility dikha sakta hai.

Agle haftay ke pehle din ka analysis:

Monday ko koi khaas fundamental events samne nahi aaye, kyun ke Friday ko market ne sari zaroori maloomat ko hazam kar liya tha. Sab se ahm baat yeh thi ke Jerome Powell ne September mein Federal Reserve ki monetary policy ko relaxed karne ki tayari ka ishara diya. Baki sab kuch market ke liye irrelevant tha. Abhi market ko European Central Bank ya Bank of England ki monetary policy ya unke future plans mein zyada dilchaspi nahi hai. Market ko sirf is baat ki fikr hai ke Fed kitni jaldi rates ko neeche karega, aur yeh bhi ke kya September ke baad Fed rates ko cut karega ya nahi, jab ke U.S. mein inflation abhi bhi kaafi high hai.

General Conclusions:

Naye haftay ke pehle trading day mein, dono currency pairs thoda retracement downward dekh sakti hain. Magar yeh sirf ek technical assumption hai jo sell signals se confirm hona chahiye. Yeh bhi mumkin hai ke dono pairs apni bullish direction mein continue karein, kyun ke market mein jo purchases ho rahi hain, wo kisi khaas factor se taluq nahi rakhti hain.




Agar hum NZD/USD pair ka daily chart dekhein, to lagta hai ke Kiwi 0.6316 level ko test karne ki koshish kar raha hai. Agar yeh "False Break" level ko test nahi karta ya upar se penetrate nahi karta, to agle kuch dinon mein Kiwi ki value kam ho sakti hai. Is bat ki tasdeeq yeh hai ke price movements mein deviations dekhne ko mil rahi hain jahan price ne "Higher-High" banaya, lekin RSI indicator (5) ne "Double Top" ka signal diya. NZD/USD ki value girne aur kam hone ka potential hai, khaaskar agar yeh 0.6031 level se neeche girta hai aur close hota hai. Is surat mein Kiwi 0.5847 level tak gir sakta hai, jo iska main target hoga. Agar momentum aur volatility support karti hain, to 0.5618 agle kuch dinon mein agla target ho sakta hai.

Pichle hafte New Zealand Dollar (NZD) ne US Dollar (USD) ke khilaf ek chhoti si range mein trade kiya, aur 0.6010 par band hua. Yeh saatwa din hai jab price movement mein zyada tabdeeli nahi hui, jo ke pair ke consolidation period ko darshata hai. Technical indicators mixed outlook de rahe hain. Relative Strength Index (RSI) neutral level 50 ke qareeb settle ho gaya hai, jo buying aur selling pressure ke beech balance ko indicate karta hai. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) bhi flat ho gaya hai, jo clear directional momentum ki kami ko darshata hai. Magar, MACD par positive histogram aur green bars underlying buying interest ki taraf ishara karti hain.

NZD/USD pair ko turant resistance ka saamna 0.6000 ke psychologically important level par hai. Agar yeh level successfully break hota hai, to rally ki sambhavnayein hain 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) ke 0.6040 tak aur shayad 0.6150 tak bhi. Dusri taraf, agar pair 20-day SMA ko 0.5970 ke neeche break karta hai, to yeh downtrend ka signal de sakta hai, jisme potential targets 0.5900 tak ho sakte hain.

Recent increase ke baad downward correction ki sambhavnayein hain, kyunki yeh increase kuch zyada lag raha hai. Candle abhi bhi 0.6137 ke supply area mein blocked hai. Jab tak 0.6145 ke price par supply area penetrate nahi hota, downward movement ki chances hain. Isliye, main apne doston ko jo is pair ke saath trading kar rahe hain, sirf sell positions open karne aur 0.6064 ke area ke around targets set karne ka mashwara deta hoon.




Wednesday ko NZD/USD ka tez decline central bank policies aur market expectations ke currency movements par impact ko darshata hai. Reserve Bank of New Zealand ki dovish stance NZD ke liye potential downside risks ko introduce karti hai, jo key support levels ko pair ke future movements determine karne mein critical bana deti hai. Traders ko in technical levels aur bank ke future statements par dhyan dena chahiye taake evolving landscape ko behtar samjha ja sake.

NZD/USD D1 Chart

Pichle hafte New Zealand Dollar (NZD) ne US Dollar (USD) ke khilaf ek chhoti si range mein trade kiya aur 0.6010 par band hua. Yeh saatwa din hai jab price movement mein kami dekhne ko mili, jo ke pair ke consolidation period ko darshata hai. Technical indicators mixed outlook de rahe hain. Relative Strength Index (RSI) neutral level 50 ke qareeb settle ho gaya hai, jo buying aur selling pressure ke beech balance ko indicate karta hai. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) bhi flat ho gaya hai, jo clear directional momentum ki kami ko darshata hai. Magar, MACD par positive histogram aur green bars underlying buying interest ko ishara karti hain.

NZD/USD pair ko turant resistance ka saamna 0.6000 ke psychologically important level par hai. Agar yeh level successfully break hota hai, to rally ki sambhavnayein hain 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) ke 0.6040 tak aur shayad 0.6150 tak bhi. Dusri taraf, agar pair 20-day SMA ko 0.5970 ke neeche break karta hai, to yeh downtrend ka signal de sakta hai, jisme potential targets 0.5900 tak ho sakte hain.

Daily timeframe par pair ne series of lower highs aur lower lows banaye hain. Kal, market 0.6004 level se khula. Kal ke trading session mein, isne 0.6031 ka high aur 0.5988 ka low banaya. Is tarah, kal ka trading range lagbhag 43 pips tha. Market ka sentiment bearish hai. Yeh daily pivot level ke neeche trade kar raha hai aur agle trading sessions mein daily support level S1 aur S2 tak pahunch sakta hai.




Market ke bearish strength ko support karne wale indicators yeh hain: Market ne kal weekly resistance level 0.6020 ko touch kiya. RSI 14 overbought condition ke baad 50 level ke neeche move kar raha hai. Ek bearish pin bar candlestick pattern bana, jo ke bearish strength ko confirm karta hai. Market MA 200 ke neeche move kar raha hai, jo bearish strength ko darshata hai. Bearish divergence bhi market ke down movement ko support karta hai.