USD/JPY ایکسچینج ریٹ: آج کی قیمت اور مارکیٹ تجزیہ

USD/JPY currency pair abhi recently niche ki taraf ja raha hai, jo ke economic expectations aur current events ka nasha hai. U.S. Federal Reserve se ummeed hai ke wo apne agle meeting mein interest rates kam karega. Aise rate cut aam tor par economic activity ko barhane ke liye hota hai, jo shayad U.S. dollar ko investors ke liye kam appealing bana de. Dusri taraf, Bank of Japan (BOJ) se Friday ko interest rates mein koi tabdeeli ki umeed nahi hai. BOJ ki yeh stability Japanese yen ko U.S. dollar ke muqablay mein relatively strong ya steady rakh sakti hai. Isliye, U.S. rate cuts aur stable Japanese rates ka mix USD/JPY pair ki ongoing decline ko contribute kar sakta hai. Halanki overall bearish outlook ke bawajood, USD/JPY pair ke liye kuch dilchasp possibilities hain. Chahe U.S. dollar dusri currencies ke muqablay mein kamzor ho, yeh yen ke muqablay mein thoda rise bhi dekh sakta hai. Yeh unexpected scenario tab ho sakta hai jab market sentiment ya kuch unforeseen economic news influence kare. Crucial U.S. economic reports jaise Core Retail Sales aur Retail Sales data ko dekhna zaroori hai taake yeh samajh sakein ke yeh elements USD/JPY pair ko kaise affect kar rahe hain.
Technical nazariya se dekha jaye to USD/JPY pair niche ki taraf trend kar raha hai, jo ke pehle ke lows ko tod raha hai aur price pattern ko badal raha hai. Yeh ongoing decline yeh darshata hai ke market mein sellers ka control hai. Technical indicators aur moving averages yeh suggest karte hain ke yeh bearish trend barqarar reh sakta hai, kyunki yeh aam tor par pair ko sell karne ka indication dete hain. Weekly Fibonacci retracement levels ke mutabiq 38.1% mark ke aas-paas support dikhayi deti hai. Iska matlab hai ke agar price aur niche girti hai, to yeh level support provide kar sakta hai, jahan buying interest bhi dekhne ko mil sakti hai aur trend reverse ho sakta hai.
Sellers ko price ko significantly niche le jaane mein mushkil ka samna hai. Agar 38.1% level ka support barkarar rehta hai, to 14.5% Fibonacci retracement level ki taraf rebound ka mauka ho sakta hai. Traders ko price movements ko 140.84 support level ke aas-paas dekhna chahiye buying aur selling opportunities ke liye, aur 141.55 resistance level ke aas-paas possible buying signals ke liye dekhna chahiye. Aakhir mein, technical outlook yeh darshata hai ke USD/JPY pair shayad nazdeeki dino mein apna bearish trend barqarar rakhe, lekin key support levels aur aane wale economic data iski future direction ko influence kar sakte hain.

USD/JPY Market Outlook

Salaam aur Subah bakhair sabhi Visitors aur Traders ko!
Kal ka din USD/JPY buyers ke liye behtareen raha jab unhoon ne upar bounce kiya aur 141.75 zone ko successfully break kiya. Aaj bhi traders ke liye ek ahem din hai kyun ke aaj kay din mein bohot se important news events release hongay. Hum Asian aur USA trading zones mein trade kar saktay hain kyun ke ye zones technical analysis kay zariye identify hotay hain aur aik barrier ka kaam kartay hain jo market ko apni upward trajectory mein continue karnay ke liye overcome karna parta hai.

Aaj ka din fundamental news ke lihaaz se bohot important hai – khaaskar FOMC aur Building Permits reports, jo buyers ke liye resistance levels ko break karnay ka catalyst sabit ho sakti hain. Khaaskar, FOMC ka interest rates par faisla traders ke liye bohot closely dekha jayega. Agar Federal Reserve yeh ishara karta hai ke wo apni monetary policy ko zyada accommodative rakhna chahta hai, toh yeh buyers ke liye ek aur motivation ho sakta hai aur market ko resistance break karna aasaan ho sakta hai. Dusri taraf, agar Fed hawkish tone apnaye aur yeh signal de ke interest rates expectations se zyada barhne wale hain, toh yeh buyers ke liye challenges peda kar sakta hai aur resistance zone cross karna mushkil ho jayega.

Umeed hai ke USD/JPY ka market aaj humein mazeed trading opportunities dega. Saath hi, Federal Funds Rate ka faisla bhi aaj ke trading scenario ka ek key element hoga. Federal Funds Rate ka direct impact hota hai borrowing costs par, jo ke businesses aur consumers ko directly effect karti hain. Agar yeh rate kam ho jata hai, toh borrowing sasti ho jati hai, jo zyada kharch aur investment ko promote karta hai. Buyers ko umeed hai ke aaj ka FOMC meeting ka faisla Federal Funds Rate ko low rakhay ya phir aane wale rate hikes ko gradual aur measured rakhnay ka ishara day.

Dua hai ke aapka Wednesday profitable ho!

Bazaar ne aik baar phir yeh sabit kiya hai ke bunyadi waqiyat ki fitrat zyada ahmiyat nahi rakhti. Har waqiya mein, dollar ke khilaaf kaam karne wale asbaab dhundh liye jaate hain aur baaqi sab kuch nazarandaz kar diya jata hai. Indeed, ab bazaar Fed ke rates aur BoE/European Central Bank ke rates mein farq ki roshni mein dollar bech sakta hai. Ab bazaar yeh tawaqo kar raha hai ke Fed apne rates ko British ya European central banks ke muqable mein zyada tezi se kam karega, jo ke ek naye selling ka silsila shuru kar sakta hai. Chunay ke ECB ka ijlaas bas pichlay haftay hua tha, ECB ki sarbaraah Christine Lagarde ka aaj ka khitaab bazaar ko koi naye ahmiyat ke maloomat nahi faraham karega General Nataij: Is haftay ke akhri trading din mein, dono currency pairs shayad bohat sukoon se trade karain . Majmoi tor par bazaar ka jazba yeh hai ke dono pairs aaj bhi barh sakte hain. Sath hi yeh bhi imkaan hai ke yeh correct karain. Is liye behtareen yeh hai ke technical levels, formations aur patterns ke bunyad par trade kiya jaye. Koi nahi jaanta ke bade players kab tak US dollar ko bechte rahain gay aur kab tak Fed ke monetary easing ko price karte rahain gay. Jaisa ke hum ne pichle analysis mein 18 September ko peesh goyi ki thi, yen ne apni consolidation range ko barhaya aur neeche ke price channel se breakout kiya, jo ab mansookh ho chuka hai. Magar price ab bhi balance indicator line ke neeche hai, jo ke maujooda upward trend mein ek modrate correction ka ishara hai. Yeh correction MACD line tak gehra ho sakta hai jo ke 146.50 ke target level ke qareeb hai. Agar yeh level break ho jata hai, toh trend ko upward movement mein tabdeel kar diya jayega. Marlin oscillator ab bhi ek tang range mein hai (gray rectangle). Light green rectangle correct karne ki mumkin range ko zahir karta hai. Hum yeh tawaqo karte hain ke sideways trend jari rahega. Four-hour chart mein price balance aur MACD lines ke upar hai. Marlin positive area mein hai. 143.60 ke upar consolidate karna pehla koshish ho gi growth ki taraf 146.50 tak. MACD line (141.41) ke break hone se price ko 139.70-140.27 range test karne ka impetus milega

**Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen**
Aaj ke din ke dusre hisson mein mere zikar ki gayi keematon ka koi test nahi hua. Volatility ki kami dekhne ko mili, jo data ki kami ki wajah se thi, jisne U.S. dollar ke upar uthane ki potential ko bhi kam kar diya. Aaj ki Asian session mein dollar par bechne ka bohot zyada pressure raha. Japan ke monetary base ke badlav ka report economists ke andazay se milta julta tha, lekin 10 saal ke bonds ki bechne mein demand ummeed se kam rahi. Badi trading companies ke market mein wapas aate hi dollar par pressure barh gaya. USD/JPY mein chal raha upar ki taraf ka correction jaldi khatam ho sakta hai, is liye bechne ki mauqay dhoondhna behtar hoga jo ke recent months mein dekhe gaye neeche ke trend ke saath mel khate hain. Intraday strategy ke liye, main scenarios No. 1 aur 2 par zyada tawajjo dunga.

**Buy Signal**

**Scenario No. 1:** Aaj main USD/JPY kharidne ka plan bana raha hoon jab yeh 146.44 par pohanchta hai, jo ke chart par hare rang ki line se dikhaya gaya hai. Iska maqsad 147.21 tak uthna hai, jo ke chart par mote hare rang ki line se hai. 147.21 ke ilaqe mein, main long positions se nikalne aur short positions kholne ka irada rakhta hoon, umeed hai ke wahan se 30-35 pips ki harkaat milegi. Humein aaj pair ke uthne ki umeed hai, lekin humein 146.00 ke ilaqe mein buyers ki activity ki zarurat hai. Ahmiyat: Kharidne se pehle, yeh ensure karein ke MACD indicator zero mark ke upar ho aur wahan se uth raha ho.

**Scenario No. 2:** Aaj main USD/JPY kharidne ka plan bana raha hoon agar 145.99 ke do musalsal tests hotay hain jab MACD indicator oversold area mein ho. Yeh pair ke neeche ke potential ko limit karega aur market ka wapas uthna ka sabab banega. Humein 146.44 aur 147.21 tak ki growth ki umeed hai.

**Sell Signal**

**Scenario No. 1:** Aaj main USD/JPY bechne ka plan sirf 145.99 ke level ka test karne ke baad banata hoon, jo ke chart par laal line se dikhaya gaya hai, isse pair mein tezi se girawat aayegi. Bechne walon ka key target 145.41 hoga, jahan main short positions se nikal kar foran long positions kholne ka irada rakhta hoon, umeed hai wahan se 20-25 pips ki harkaat milegi. USD/JPY par pressure kisi bhi waqt wapas aa sakta hai, kyunki dollar ka bearish market abhi tak khatam nahi hua. Ahmiyat: Bechne se pehle, yeh ensure karein ke MACD indicator zero mark ke neeche ho aur wahan se gir raha ho.

**Scenario No. 2:** Aaj main USD/JPY bechne ka plan bana raha hoon agar 146.44 ke do musalsal tests hote hain jab MACD indicator overbought area mein ho. Yeh pair ke upar ki potential ko limit karega aur market ka wapas girna ka sabab banega. Humein 145.99 aur 145.41 tak ki girawat ki umeed hai

Yeh wajahain hain jis ki wajah se USD/JPY ka price apne low point se decline hua aur aik din mein kuch apni favorable aspects kho diye. Wednesday ki Asian session ke dauran yeh pair strong tha, lekin phir 142.00 mark se neeche close hua. Jab traders ko aggressive bets place karni thi central bank tournament risks ke hawale se, toh essential context ne yeh indicate kiya ke spot cost ke liye downward momentum ka rujhan zyada hai. Federal Reserve ka do din ka meeting Wednesday ko khatam hona tha, jisme unka faisla announce kiya gaya, aur umeed thi ke woh apna coverage easing cycle start karein ge. Bank of Japan (BoJ) ka coverage shift Friday ko expected tha, jo market ke liye bohot interest ka moqa tha kyun ke iska direct asar Japanese yen (JPY) par hota aur USD/JPY pair ko ek significant upward move milta.Yeh cheez Tuesday ke unexpectedly strong US retail sales record ko overshadow karti, jo ke dollar ko apne 2024 lows se recover hone nahi de rahi thi. Lekin ek din mein hi US dollar ne apne intraday low 140.32 se rebound karte hue 142.44 tak pohanch gaya, jo yen ke muqablay mein ek strong increase tha. US ki strong economic facts ki wajah se investors ko Federal Reserve ke price reductions ke hawale se concerns thi, jis ki wajah se woh central bank ke economic policy decisions par focus kar rahe thay. Is ki wajah se dollar short sellers ne apni holdings ko reduce kar diya, jo USD/JPY pair ke liye aik negative move samjhi gayi.
Halaankeh USD/JPY ne 180 points se zyada ka faasla tay karte hue turning point 142.35 ko test kiya, yeh pair ab bhi downward bias show kar raha hai. Agar USD/JPY September 12 ko apne daily high 143.04 se upar break kar jaye, toh important resistance levels, Kijun-Sen at 144.48 aur Senkou Span A at 143.15 expose ho sakti hain. Lekin agar yeh 142.00 se neeche girta hai, toh yeh downtrend ko aur bhi worse kar dega. Is waqt ka yearly low 139.5

filhal 143.10 ke aas-paas hover kar raha hai jabke ye weekly peak 143.80 se retreat kar gaya hai, jo ke early US trading hours mein Monday ko dekha gaya tha. Is decline ka sabab softer US Dollar (USD) aur market sentiment ka safe-haven assets ki taraf shift hona hai. Traders ab Thursday ko aane wali weekly US Initial Jobless Claims report ka intezaar kar rahe hain, jo ke US ki economic aur employment conditions ke hawalay se nayi insights de sakti hai. Pair abhi takriban 143.14 ke level par trade kar raha hai. **USD/JPY ke Fundamentals:**

Recent Bank of Japan (BoJ) ke June meeting minutes ke hawalay se kuch members mein rising import prices ko le kar concern barh raha hai, jo ke weak JPY ki wajah se ho rahe hain. Yeh inflationary pressures mein izafa kar sakte hain. Ek member ne highlight kiya ke cost-push inflation agar inflation expectations aur wage growth ko barha de to ye underlying inflation ko aur zyada exacerbate kar sakta hai. Iske ilawa, BoJ ka Quarterly Outlook Report jo ke Thursday ko release kiya gaya, is baat ka izhar karta hai ke wages aur inflation expectations se zyada barh sakti hain, jo ke inflation expectations aur tighter labor market ki taraf le ja sakta hai.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee ne indicate kiya ke agar economic ya financial conditions deteriorate karti hain to Federal Reserve action lene ke liye tayyar hai. Goolsbee ne emphasize kiya ke Fed ka forward-looking stance hai aur agar conditions collectively aise develop hoti hain jo deterioration show karain to hum usay fix karain ge, jese ke unhon ne Reuters ko bataya. Yeh Fed ki commitment ko underscore karta hai ke wo possible economic challenges ko proactively address karain ge.

**Hourly Time Frame Technical Outlook:**

Technically, pair apne descending channel ki upper boundary test kar raha hai, jo ke 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke aas-paas 143.59 ke level par hai. Agar yeh resistance level break hota hai to bearish momentum kam ho sakta hai aur pair 144.50 ke "throwback support turned resistance" ko challenge kar sakta hai. Dosri taraf, agar pair apna upward trajectory maintain karne mein fail hota hai, to yeh descending channel ke lower boundary ko test kar sakta hai jo ke throwback support ke kareeb 140.21 ke level par hai, jo December mein observe kiya gaya tha.

Kal ke Asian trading session mein sellers ne market ke price movements ko control karne ki koshish ki. Is pressure ke natijay mein prices 142.61 daily open se neeche gir gaye. Magar jab prices ne apne qareebi support level 141.01 ko torhne ki koshish ki, toh ek retreat aya jisse price bounce back kar gaya aur mazeed girawat roknay mein madad mili. EMA 200 H1 ne daily open aur support ke darmiyan cross kiya, jo sellers ke pressure ko rokne ka sabab bana. Buyer pressure ki wajah se price ne apna rukh badal liya, aur EMA 200 H1 ke upar dubara se aa gaya.
Ek bullish candle ne daily open ko tor diya, aur bullish trend qaim raha jab daily open ka qareebi resistance 143.19 ko breach kiya gaya. EMA 633 H1, jo 144.34 par cross hua, ek strong resistance bana, jo 144.13 ke resistance ke upar tha, jisse price is area ko breach nahi kar paya, chahe jitni bhi koshish ki ho jab price is level tak pohncha. Isi tarah, sellers jo gap ko close karne ki koshish kar rahe thay, price ko neeche le janay mein nakam rahe, jisse price bohot kam movement kar saka. Is waqt price EMA 200 H1 ke upar hai, jo bullish trend ka ishara hai. EMA 12 aur EMA 36 H1 ka behavior bhi price ki direction ko dikhata hai, jo upward stretch kar rahe hain aur buyer power ko dominant karte hue cross banaya hai. Ek lambi dip ke baad, lagta hai ke purchasers is haftay recovery ki koshish kar rahe hain. Ye halat daily weakening ke sath mutabiq hai jo EMA 633 tak pohnch chuki hai aur resistance ka samna kar rahi hai. Ye bhi mumkin hai ke yeh, kum az kum qareebi arsay ke liye, ek bullish correction phase ho daily decline mein. Price ne har roz EMA 36 ko touch karne ki koshish ki hai aur buyers ke pressure ki wajah se EMA 633 ke upar wapas a gaya hai. Jumme ke trading mein bullish candles ziada ubhar kar samnay ayi, aur yeh Thursday ke mukable mein ziada kamyabi se ubhari. Jumme ke high aur low prices 141.75 aur 144.50 the. Agla hurdle buyers ke liye daily resistance 145.09 par hai, jo ke high bhi hai, agar yeh tor diya jaye.

**USD/JPY Market Outlook**

Is waqt main USD/JPY ki price action ka jaiza le raha hoon. Haal hi mein, 144.10 ke original resistance level par kuch bearish leg bars ban rahe hain, jo ke ek potential decline ka ishara de rahe hain. Bank of Japan (BOJ) ne ye elan kiya hai ke apni interest rate ko 0.25 se neeche hi rakhega. Yeh faisla darshata hai ke BOJ apni current monetary policy ko barqarar rakhta hai, jo yen ki taqat par asar daal sakta hai. Is buniyadi background ke samne, USD/JPY ke liye bearish trend ka liyaaz zyada hai.

Iske ilawa, humne hourly chart par ek bearish engulfing pattern bhi dekha hai, jo ek aane wale downtrend ka aur saboot hai. In signals ko madde nazar rakhte hue, main umeed karta hoon ke agle hafte USD/JPY niche ki taraf jaye ga. Mera original target lagbhag 50 points ka girawat hai, spread ko chhod kar, lekin mujhe lagta hai ke is mein aur bhi girawat ki sambhavana hai.

Halankeh bearish outlook ke bawajood, USD/JPY ne haali mein 20-day high 144.50 tak pahunch gaya. Traders ne price control karne ki koshish ki lekin wo effectively price ko neeche nahi laa sake. Maine ek aham support area 143.49 se 143.77 ke darmiyan identify kiya hai, jo ke prices ko elevated rakhta hai. Lekin jaise jaise market band hone laga, asset ne resistance ko maintain karne mein mushkil mehsoos ki, aur 15-minute chart par double tops aur bottoms nazar aaye.

Agar price 143.49 ke niche girti hai, toh yeh current correction ka khatam hone ka ishara dega aur selling interest ko attract karega. Phir agar USD/JPY 144.50 ke upar close karta hai, toh main apni selling position se bahar aa jaunga. Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) filhal 50.00 ke niche, yani 47 par hai, jo bullish momentum ki kamzori ko darshata hai, aur asset ne descending channel ke upper boundary tak pahuncha hai.

In sab factors ko dekhte hue, main USD/JPY ke liye bearish trend ki umeed kar raha hoon. Filhal main 0.14 lots ka short trade kar raha hoon, jo abhi loss mein hai. Lekin main umeed karta hoon ke market meri taraf moodega. Overall, bearish price action aur buniyadi signals ka milan mujhe yeh sochne par majboor karta hai ke USD/JPY joṛi mein jaldi hi down move dekhne ko milega.

USD/JPY currency pair ka price analysis kar raha hoon. Hamari current expectations yeh hain ke hum ek munasib opportunity dekhain jo humein apne trading plans ko ya to upwards ya downwards execute karne ka mauqa dey. Yeh baat mad-e-nazar rakhte hue ke abhi ek strong downtrend chal raha hai, main yeh umeed karta hoon ke ek significant correction bane jo price ko temporarily upar le jaaye, aur phir decline ka silsila wapas shuru ho. Corection ka intezar karna trading mein ek mushkil kaam hota hai kyunki jab bhi price retracement karti hai to yeh us correction ka aghaz hota hai, aur USD/JPY pair ka behavior kabhi kabhi unpredictable ho sakta hai. Isliye ihtiyaat baratna zaroori hai. Main abhi ke current levels par selling mein dilchaspi nahi rakhta, lekin ek achi pullback zaroori hai pehle ke hum naye targets ka ta'aqqub karen.Jis tarah Federal Reserve aur Bank of Japan ke meetings ke natayij aane wale hain, market mein kaafi ziada volatility ki umeed hai. Mere analysis ke mutabiq, bearish side par abhi bhi mera rujhan hai, lekin ek strong pullback ki zarurat hai. Agar price 145.76 level ke upar chale jaaye, to phir yeh munasib hoga ke selling ko consider kiya jaye.USD/JPY pair Asian session mein ek tight range mein trade kar raha hai, jo ke kal ke closing levels ke qareeb hai. Yen ne Monday ko dollar ke muqable mein thodi kamzori dikhayi hai. Yeh move un expectations ki wajah se hai jo upcoming Federal Reserve meeting par hain jo ke Wednesday ko honi hai. Pair ab ek correction phase mein daakhil hone ki koshish kar raha hai, lekin mujhe yeh growth sustainable nahi lagti. Yen ke liye demand abhi bhi kaafi strong hai.Aaj ka din, USD/JPY pair ke liye US markets ka khulna intehai ahem hoga. US se kuch important economic data bhi aane wale hain jo currency markets mein significant volatility la sakte hain. Main expect nahi karta ke din ke pehle hissay mein koi bari moves dekhnay ko milengi, lekin overall downtrend ka silsila wapas shuru hone ka imkaan hai.Reversal point 141.35 par expect kiya ja raha hai, aur main us level ke neeche selling ka soch raha hoon, jisme targets 139.85 aur 139.35 par set hain. Aik doosra scenario yeh bhi hai ke agar pair 141.35 mark ko break kar ke us ke upar consolidate kar le, to price ke 141.65 aur 141.85 tak janay ka rasta khul jaye ga. In levels ke mutabiq, main dobara se pair ko sell karne ki koshish karunga

USD/JPY Forecast: Japanese Yen 13-Mahine Ke High Ke Qareeb Mandla Raha Hai

Dusre lagataar din ke liye, USD/JPY apne tezi se hone wale losses se recover kar raha hai, jo 13-mahine ke high support level 139.60 tak chalay gaye thay. Rebound gains 142.46 ke resistance level par ruk gaye hain aur ab yeh 141.80 ke aas-paas stabilize ho rahe hain, jab ke sab se aham event, US Federal Reserve ki policy faislay ka ailan aj hone wala hai.

Is dauran, Japanese yen ke gains tab aaye jab investors is hafte Japan aur United States ke monetary policy decisions ke intezar mein thay. Bank of Japan se umeed hai ke woh Friday ko interest rates ko badla nahi karega, lekin zyada rate hikes ka ishara zaroor dega. Financial markets yeh bet laga rahe hain ke Bank of Japan December mein phir se interest rates barhaye ga, jab ke October mein is move ka koi yaqeen nahi. Dosri taraf, US Federal Reserve se umeed hai ke woh chaar saalon mein pehli dafa interest rate cut karega Wednesday ko, aur financial markets mein 50 basis point ka bada cut hone ke do-tiha chances price ho rahe hain. Japan ke Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki ne Tuesday ko kaha ke forex volatility economy ke liye faidemand bhi ho sakti hai aur nuqsan deh bhi, lekin tezi se hone wali moves na pasand hain.

Is ke ilawa, Japan ka 10-year bond yield ek mahinay ke lowest level tak pohonch gaya hai. 10-year Japanese government bond ka yield lagbhag 0.83% tak gir gaya, ek mahinay ke low par, jab ke US bond yields mein girawat aayi hai Federal Reserve ke expected aggressive rate cuts ke chalte. Financial markets ab 50-basis point cut ka 67% chance price kar rahe hain, jo ke aik mahine pehle 25% tha, CME’s FedWatch tool ke mutabiq.

Dusri taraf, Bank of Japan se umeed hai ke is haftay apni policy ko barqarar rakhega lekin mazeed rate hikes ka ishara dega. Markets yeh bet kar rahe hain ke BoJ December mein phir se interest rates barhaye ga, lekin October mein is move ka koi yaqeen nahi hai. Fitch ne haali mein Japan ke interest rate forecasts ko revise kiya hai, aur ab unke mutabiq 2024 ke aakhir tak yeh 0.5%, 2025 mein 0.75%, aur 2026 ke aakhir tak 1% ho sakte hain.

USD/JPY ka Technical Analysis aur Aaj ke Liye Expectations:

Haal hi ke rebound attempts ke bawajood, USD/JPY exchange rate ka overall trend bearish hi hai, aur psychological support level 140.00 bearish trend par bears ke mazboot qaboo ka saboot hai. Sath hi sath, technical indicators oversold levels ki taraf move karenge. Technically, duniya ke central banks ke announcements ke baad ka reaction dollar/yen ka future tay karega. Iske ilawa, aur girawat aasakti hai aur aham support levels toot sakte hain, jisme sab se qareebi support 138.00 hai, jo bears ke control ko mazeed barhawa dega. Doosri taraf, daily chart ke mutabiq, psychological resistance 150.00 sab se aham rahega taake overall trend bullish mein badla ja sake.

Is haftay ke tamaam aham bunyadi waqiyat ho chuke hain. Bazaar ne aik baar phir yeh sabit kiya hai ke bunyadi waqiyat ki fitrat zyada ahmiyat nahi rakhti. Har waqiya mein, dollar ke khilaaf kaam karne wale asbaab dhundh liye jaate hain aur baaqi sab kuch nazarandaz kar diya jata hai. Darhaqiqat, ab bazaar Fed ke rates aur BoE/European Central Bank ke rates mein farq ki roshni mein dollar bech sakta hai. Ab bazaar yeh tawaqo kar raha hai ke Fed apne rates ko British ya European central banks ke muqable mein zyada tezi se kam karega, jo ke ek naye selling ka silsila shuru kar sakta hai. Chunay ke ECB ka ijlaas bas pichlay haftay hua tha, ECB ki sarbaraah Christine Lagarde ka aaj ka khitaab bazaar ko koi naye ahmiyat ke maloomat nahi faraham karega General Nataij: Is haftay ke akhri trading din mein, dono currency pairs shayad bohat sukoon se trade karain. Majmoi tor par bazaar ka jazba yeh hai ke dono pairs aaj bhi barh sakte hain. Sath hi yeh bhi imkaan hai ke yeh correct karain. Is liye behtareen yeh hai ke technical levels, formations aur patterns ke bunyad par trade kiya jaye. Koi nahi jaanta ke bade players kab tak U.S. dollar ko bechte rahain gay aur kab tak Fed ke monetary easing ko price karte rahain gay. Jaisa ke hum ne pichle analysis mein 18 September ko peesh goyi ki thi, yen ne apni consolidation range ko barhaya aur neeche ke price channel se breakout kiya, jo ab mansookh ho chuka hai. Magar price ab bhi balance indicator line ke neeche hai, jo ke maujooda upward trend mein ek modrate correction ka ishara hai. Yeh correction MACD line tak gehra ho sakta hai jo ke 146.50 ke target level ke qareeb hai. Agar yeh level break ho jata hai, toh trend ko upward movement mein tabdeel kar diya jayega. Marlin oscillator ab bhi ek tang range mein hai (gray rectangle). Light green rectangle correct karne ki mumkin range ko zahir karta hai. Hum yeh tawaqo karte hain ke sideways trend jari rahega. Four-hour chart mein price balance aur MACD lines ke upar hai. Marlin positive area mein hai. 143.60 ke upar consolidate karna pehla koshish ho gi growth ki taraf 146.50 tak. MACD line (141.41) ke break

### Trading Strategy with USD/JPY Prices

Aaj hum USD/JPY currency pair ke price movements ka tajziya karenge. Yeh quote ab tak local maximum zone ko todne mein nakam raha hai, lekin is zone ko chhor bhi nahi paya. Mera khayal hai ke agle hafte ki shuruat mein yeh assault jari rahega. Maine pehle hi is zone ko paar karne ke natije ka zikr kiya hai. Lekin agar koi rollback hota hai, tab bhi yeh general scenario ko nahi badlega. Toh agar price pehle ke minimum ki taraf wapas aata hai, toh naye purchases par ghoor kiya ja sakta hai.

Iss waqt, USD/JPY pair par kaafi fundamental pressure hai. Ek taraf, investors ne ab tak dollar ke baare mein apna rukh tay nahi kiya hai, khaaskar jab Fed ne pehli baar lambay waqt ke liye rate cut kiya hai, aur yeh sab settle hone mein waqt lagega. Dusri taraf, Bank of Japan ke saath jo intrigue hai, uski position bhi kuch clear nahi hai.

Pichle August ke minimum ko update karne ke baad, MACD indicator par ek bullish divergence dekha gaya. Agle hafte, main upwards par daav lagaunga kyunki aisa trend zyada mumkin hai. Hum pehle hi upar ja chuke hain, toh ab sirf prospects hain. Bullish movement ke liye sab se mumkin level 144.76 hai, lekin yeh kuch door ki baat hai. Agar 143.84 ka level kaam hota hai, toh agla mark 144.27 ki taraf hoga.

Jahan tak growth ka sawal hai, sab kuch clear hai, lekin girawat ke hawale se baat bilkul wazeh nahi hai. Hum decline ki taraf ek correction move ka intezar kar rahe hain, jo mumkin hai ke 142.95 tak pahunche. Yeh wahan USD/JPY kharidne ka ek acha mauqa ban sakta hai. Shayad hum 143.44 se bhi north ki taraf deal shuru kar sakte hain, yeh soch kar ke hum aur neeche ja sakte hain.

Overall, USD/JPY ke price movements par nazar rakhte hue, hum bullish trends ko consider kar sakte hain jab tak yeh key levels par hai. Aksar, market ki volatility ke beech, smart trading strategy apnaana zaroori hai. Yeh hamesha yaad rakhein ke trading mein risk management bhi utna hi ahmiyat rakhta hai jitna ki entry aur exit points ka sahi tay karna. Aapko apne analysis par ghoor karna hoga aur market ke halat ke mutabiq apne trading decisions lena honge.

**USD/JPY Forecast: Japanese Yen Hovers Near 13-Month High**

Do din se USD/JPY apne tezi se girne wale nuqsanat se upar aa raha hai, jo 13-maheene ki high support level 139.60 tak pahuncha tha. Rebound ke dauran gains 142.46 resistance level par ruk gaye hain aur is waqt yeh 141.80 ke aas-paas stabilizing hain, jab sab se aham event ka intezaar hai: US Federal Reserve ke policy decisions ka ailan aaj.

Is dauran, Japanese Yen ki kami is liye hui jab investors is hafte Japan aur America se monetary policy decisions ki tayyari kar rahe hain. Bank of Japan ka umeed hai ke wo Friday ko interest rates ko unchanged rakhegi, lekin yeh shayad zyada rate hikes ka ishaara de. Financial markets ka ye andaza hai ke Bank of Japan December mein interest rates ko phir se barhaye gi, jabke October mein kisi halat ka andaza nahi hai. Waqt se pehle, US Federal Reserve se yeh umeed hai ke wo Wednesday ko chaar saal mein pehli dafa interest rate kaatne ja rahe hain, jisme financial markets 50 basis points ka kaatne ka do-tehayi chance de rahe hain. Is ke ilawa, Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki ne Tuesday ko kaha ke forex volatility ke economy par dono faide aur nuqsanat hain, yeh stress karte hue ke tez harkatein nafrat ki jati hain.

Iske sath, Japan ke 10-saal ke bond yield ne ek maheene ki lowest level tak pahuncha. Benchmark 10-saal ke Japanese government bond ki yield 0.83% tak gir gayi, jo ke US bond yields ke girne ke sath sath hai, jabke umeed hai ke Federal Reserve is hafte US interest rates ko zyada aggressive tor par kaatne ja raha hai. Financial markets ab 67% chance de rahe hain ke 50 basis points ka kaatna hoga, jo ke ek mahine pehle sirf 25% tha, CME ke FedWatch tool ke mutabiq.

Dusri taraf, Bank of Japan ka is hafte apni policy ko steady rakhnay ka umeed hai, lekin yeh zyada rate hikes ka ishaara de sakti hai. Markets ka ye andaza hai ke BoJ December mein interest rates ko phir se barhaye gi, jabke October mein kisi halat ka andaza nahi hai. Fitch ne haal hi mein Japan ke interest rate forecasts ko revise kiya hai, ab yeh umeed hai ke yeh 2024 ke akhir tak 0.5%, 2025 mein 0.75%, aur 2026 ke akhir tak 1% tak pahunchegi.

**USD/JPY Technical Analysis aur Expectations Aaj:**

Haal hi ke rebound koshishon ke bawajood, USD/JPY exchange rate ka overall trend bearish hi hai, aur psychological support level 140.00 bears ki strong control ka saboot rahega. Saath hi, technical indicators oversold levels ki taraf ja rahe hain. Technical tor par, is hafte duniya ke central banks ke announcements ka reaction dollar/yen ki qismat tay karega. Iske ilawa, yeh mazeed gire ga aur aham support levels ko tod dega, jahan sab se nazdeek ka support 138.00 hai, jo bears ki control ko mazeed mazboot karega. Iske muqabil, daily chart ke mutabiq, psychological resistance 150.00 sab se aham hai agar overall trend ko bullish taraf waapas le jana hai.

Recent price action yeh dikhata hai ke bearish sentiment mein izafa ho gaya hai, jiss ne pair ke pehle ke kuch gains ko ulat diya hai. 146.86 level tak girawat yeh zahir karti hai ke sellers ki taqat barh gayi hai. Pehle bulls ne price ko ooper push kiya tha, lekin ab sellers market mein wapas aa gaye hain aur pehle ke bullish momentum ko khatam kar diya hai. Yeh tabdeeli yeh suggest karti hai ke market participants ab USDJPY pair ko bechne ke liye ziyata raaghib hain, shayad badalte hue economic halaat, geopolitical factors, ya technical signals ke wajah se jo pehle ke uptrend ko kamzor kar rahe hain. 146.86 zone tak girawat khaas ahmiyat rakhti hai kyunke yeh ek critical support level hai jise traders ghore se dekh rahe hain. Agar sellers apni momentum barqarar rakhte hain aur price ko is level se neeche le jate hain, to yeh ek lambe downtrend ki shuruaat ka ishara ho sakti hai. Iske ilawa, USDJPY par yeh bearish pressure ziyata economic concerns ka aks ho sakta hai. Misal ke taur par, agar US dollar kamzor ho raha hai due to softer economic data ya Federal Reserve ke dovish comments ke wajah se, to yeh pair ke decline mein ek sabab ban sakta hai. Dosri taraf, Japanese yen mein mazid taqat, shayad safe-haven demand ya positive domestic economic indicators ke wajah se, is downward movement ko barhawa de sakti hai. Traders ke liye yeh tabdeeli both challenges aur opportunities paida karti hai. Jo log long positions hold kar rahe hain, unko apni strategies dobara ghore se dekhni par sakti hai, special agar pair support levels ko tor kar neeche jata hai. Wahan short sellers ke liye yeh environment mazeed girawat se faida uthane ke liye moafiq ho sakta hai, utsalar agar bearish momentum barhti hai. Bunyadi baat yeh hogi ke dekhna hoga ke USDJPY pair 146.86 level ke ird gird kis tarah behave karta hai aur kya yeh zone reversal ka point banega ya sirf mazeed bearish action ke liye ek stepping stone banega. USDJPY pair ke recent price action se yeh zahir hota hai ke bearish sentiment mein ek shiddat aayi hai, jahan sellers ne successful push karke price ko 146.86 zone tak le aaye hain. Yeh movement sirf sellers ki qabliyat ko zahir nahi karti ke unhone peechle nuqsan cover kar liye hain, balke yeh bhi dikhata hai ke unka market par naya control hai. Is shift ke implications

USD/JPY Ke Liye Maamoolat Ki Taja Tareen Soorat-e-Haal** Sab ko subh bakhair aur guzishta hafta ke liye umeed hai ke aapka waqt mufeed raha hoga! USD/JPY ke sellers apne guzishta nuqsan ko khatam karne mein kaar-aamad ho rahe hain aur pair ko 149.40 ke zone tak dhakel rahe hain. Yeh soorat-e-haal market mein mazboot bearish sentiment ko zahir karti hai, kyun ke sellers ne control wapas hasil kar liya hai aur qeemat ko neeche ki taraf dhakel rahe hain. Is trend ko madde nazar rakhte hue, ek aur sell position kholna jise short target 143.51 par ho, kal ke aane se pehle ek mozu strategy nazar aati hai. Yeh target mojudah descending force se faida uthate hue, ek munasib munafa hasil karne ka mauka deta hai jab ke aam market sentiment ke saath bhi ham ahang rahta hai.
Is ke ilawa, mali indicators, central bank ke faislay, aur beyn-ul-aqwami soorat-e-haal bhi pair ke development par aham asar daal sakte hain. Waqt par maloomat se mutaliq rehne se traders ko apni position mein mozoon tabdiliyan karne aur apni strategy ko nayi maloomat ke tanazur mein mozoon rakhne ka mauka milta hai. Tawaqqo hai ke aane wale dinon mein qeemat ka rujhaan sellers ke haq mein rahega, jo ke nuqsan se niklne ke naye trend ko barhata rahega.

Yeh samajhna ke USD/JPY ke market sentiment ko asalihiyat se navigate karna zaroori hai. Sentiment jaldi badal sakta hai, aur traders ko tayyar rehna chahiye ke wo tabdiliyon ka bar waqt jawab dein. Yeh is cheez ko samajhne ko bhi shamil karta hai ke kisi bhi mumkin reversal ke asar ya bazaar ke wasi' trend mein kisi bhi tabdeeli ko pehchanein jo USD/JPY pair ko mutasir kar sakta hai. Market ki updates aur sentiment ko sahih taur par samajh kar, traders apne aap ko mauqa' par faida uthane ya risk ko mitigate karne ke liye behtar taur par munsalik kar sakte hain.

Ittifaqan, USD/JPY ke sellers ne apne nuqsan ko cover karne mein aham taraqqi hasil ki hai, aur 149.40 zone tak pahunch gaye hain. Ek sell position jiska short target 143.51 ho, mozu hai, lekin economic conditions ke badalte hue halaat ke saath ham ahang rehne ke liye news aur sentiment ko barabar nazar mein rakhna bhi zaroori hai.