USD/JPY ایکسچینج ریٹ: آج کی قیمت اور مارکیٹ تجزیہ

USD/JPY ne ek record high par pohonch kar tezi se increase dikhaya hai, jo ke profit-taking ka potential moqa bhi ho sakta hai. Aane wale US session se pehle ek decline ka chance bhi ho sakta hai. Moving averages ke upar aur bullish channel se breakout ne bearish pressure ka ishara diya hai. Hourly chart analysis aur 15-minute chart ke mutabiq, ek decline ki possibility hai kyunki moving average abhi ke price se upar hai, jo ke USD/JPY pair ke bullish trend ke continuation ko suggest karta hai, aur yeh higher zone tak ja sakta hai. Is haftay ke trend pattern ne narrow range mein ek uptrend dikhaya hai. Relatively modest upward rally ko dekhte hue, yeh increase agle hafte tak continue ho sakti hai, aur prices ke uptrend ko maintain karne ki umeed hai.

Morning candlestick ne 100-period simple moving average ke upar close kiya, jo ke market trend mein rise ka ishara hai. Agar buyers 161.51 price zone se upar jaane mein kamiyab hote hain... Is waqt, USD/JPY apni trend line ke upar trade kar raha hai, jo ke buyers ki strength ko dikhata hai, aur yeh trend line support ka kaam kar rahi hai. Bullish rally ko continue karne ke liye, lagta hai ke buyers ko 162.15 resistance level ko todna hoga, jo trading channel ko open karega aur bulls ke liye continued movement ka potential offer karega. Pehla target supply zone 160.47 par hoga, jahan historically sellers ne prices ko niche dhakela hai.

Reverse movement towards short side bhi possible hai, lekin bears ko pehle 160.24 support level ko todna hoga, jahan se price aksar wapas bounce hota hai. Bear strength us waqt confirm hogi jab price 160.31 ke broken level ke niche consolidate karega, jo ke price weakness ka ishara hoga.

Yeh khas taur par USD/JPY market mein pichle budh ko dekha gaya tha jab price ne trading session ke dauran significant downward movement experience kiya. Shorter time frame mein, price ko monitor kiya gaya hai aur yeh abhi 50-period Simple Moving Average line ke upar hai, jo ek slight upward correction ko dikhata hai. Yeh possible hai ke aaj ke price position 154.00 - 155.23 area ke ird-gird consolidate kare, kyunki yeh conditions aksar Tuesday ko dekhi jaati hain jab market activity relatively quiet hoti hai.

H1 timeframe mein market trend conditions ko observe karte hue, yeh clear hai ke abhi yeh downward phase mein hai, halan ke range zyada wide nahi hai. Is haftay ka trend thoda bearish hai, ke bawajood ke USD/JPY pair ne July 2024 ke shuruati trading sessions ke baad upward move kiya. Iska matlab yeh hai ke agar USD/JPY is level ke neeche hold nahi kar pata, toh yeh agle support levels ki taraf move kar sakta hai, jo ke possible 168.00 ya us se niche ho sakta hai. Agar support hold karta hai, toh ek rebound ho sakta hai, aur pair pehle ke highs ko test kar sakta hai jo ke 168.70-169.00 ke ird-gird ho sakte hain.

D1 moving average line ek trend indicator ka kaam karti hai. Agar USD/JPY is line ke upar rehta hai, toh yeh bullish trend continuation ko suggest karta hai. Lekin, agar yeh moving average ke neeche sustained trading hoti hai, toh yeh ek trend reversal ya consolidation phase ka ishara ho sakti hai.

USD/JPY pair ke recent trading activity economic indicators, central bank policies, aur geopolitical factors ka ek complex interplay reflect kar rahi hai. D1 moving average line par 168.470 support level ka current test pair ke liye ek critical juncture hai. Traders ko chahiye ke yeh level ke ird-gird pair ka behavior closely monitor karein, kyunki yeh future price movements ke bare mein significant insights provide kar sakta hai. Ek cautious aur informed approach adopt karna, jisme technical aur fundamental analysis dono ko include kiya jaye, essential hoga USD/JPY pair ke market dynamics ko navigate karne ke liye aane wale dino mein

Aaj ke liye mere technical analysis ke mutabiq, USDJPY currency pair mein ek ooncha correction hone ki umeed hai jo 147.70 ke price tak pohanch sakti hai. H1 time frame ka tajziya karne par, yahan ek bullish engulfing candle bani hai jo BUY USDJPY ka bohot strong signal hai. Yeh candle is baat ki darasat deti hai ke USDJPY ki price 147.70 tak ja sakti hai. Iske ilawa, Relative Strength Index (RSI) 14 indicator bhi yeh dikhata hai ke USDJPY kal 145.70 par oversold yani zyada bechi gayi thi. Iska matlab yeh hai ke USDJPY ki price phir se ooncha chalne ki umeed hai aur 147.70 tak pohnch sakti hai. BUY USDJPY ka signal bhi confirm hota hai kyunki USDJPY price ne Fibonacci 0 line ko paar kar diya hai, jo ke yeh indicate karta hai ke buyers aaj USDJPY pair mein enter kar sakte hain. Mere technical analysis ke natayej ke mutabiq, main USDJPY ko 147.70 tak BUY karne ka faisla kiya hai.

Daily time window ka tajziya karte hue, Moving Average technique ke zariye dekha ja sakta hai ke price ab bhi bearish trend mein chal rahi hai aur Yellow MA 200 area se kaafi door ho chuki hai. Yeh dikhata hai ke sellers ab bhi price ke control mein hain aur bearish pressure barqarar hai, saath hi bearish candlestick bhi dominant hai. Aaj ke trading session mein, buyers ne larger entry lene ki koshish shuru kar di hai aur bullish resistance lagane ki koshish kar rahe hain taake price ko seller’s resistance area tak le jaaya ja sake. Agar yeh resistance area successfully break hota hai, toh price aage bhi upar ki taraf ja sakti hai. Lekin agar yeh resistance area break nahi hota, toh aap sell entry ka plan bhi bana sakte hain. Is analysis ke mutabiq, aaj ke trading session mein careful observation aur timely decisions zaroori hain.

/JPY ke prices ke behavior ko analyse karna interesting hai. Central Bank of Japan ka ek representative recently hint kiya ke wo market mein zyada yen release karne ka soch rahe hain. Yeh ajeeb lagta hai kyunke pehle unhone rates ko barhaya tha aur ab yen ki strength ko counteract karna discuss kar rahe hain. Yeh ek verbal intervention lagti hai taake exchange rate ko stabilize kiya ja sake. Bank ko ek stable yen pasand hai aur price range 149-141 tak ja sakti hai. Critical level jo dekhna hai wo 146.13 hai, agar is level se neeche gaya to further decline ka trigger ho sakta hai. Humne lagbhag 184 points ki girawat dekhi hai jo kaafi significant hai. Aage chalke 142-143 ke taraf slide dekhne ko mil sakti hai ya phir 146 tak bounce back ho sakta hai, jo ke upar push kar sakta hai. Mera strategy yeh hai ke jab price upar jati hai to selling opportunities aur attractive hoti hain.

4-hour chart par, maine initially yen-dollar pair ke further growth ki expectation ki thi jab trading range mein thi. Lekin, maine yeh nahi socha tha ke yeh range se bahar nikal kar stop-loss orders ko trigger karegi. Ab jab yeh stops clear kar chuki hai, mujhe lagta hai ke pair upar ki taraf continue karegi. Jo highest point reach ho sakta hai wo 143.102 ke neeche hai. Ek baar phir se, pair ne buyers aur sellers ko attract kiya hai, jisse mujhe lagta hai ke yeh aur bhi stop orders ko trigger karne ki koshish karegi. Potential maximum 142.266 ho sakta hai uske baad pair phir se upar chalegi. Main previous lows ko revisit nahi karne ki ummeed rakhta, balki further growth ki expectation hai. Mera target 160.548 ke aas-paas hai; mujhe lagta hai ke pair ne apne stops clear kar diye hain aur upar jaayegi. Japan ka bank intervene kar sakta hai, lekin main nahi khareedunga, kyunki long-term trend neeche shift hota hua lagta hai.

USD/JPY currency pair ke present pricing behavior ka analysis aur discussion kar rahay hain. Buyers abhi tak 146.49 resistance level ke upar control establish nahi kar sake, jo yeh indicate karta hai ke yeh pair shayad ek correction phase se guzar raha hai before doosri koshish. Technical indicators bhi correction phase ka signal de rahe hain. Yeh pair kal resistance ko break kar sakta hai, magar main expect kar raha hoon ke price 144.99 se 146.89 ke range mein flat hi rahe, kyun ke bullish momentum abhi bhi weak hai aur bearish trend solidify nahi hua. Four-hour chart par current situation interesting hai, kyun ke sellers ne price ko lower drive kiya hai, lekin unka influence kam hota nazar aa raha hai, jo buyers ko ground gain karne ka mauqa de raha hai. Is context mein, 143.995 ke price point par buying ka ek acha mauqa ho sakta hai, jahan 149.738 resistance level ek reasonable profit target ho sakta hai. USD/JPY pair aaj notable bearish pressure mein hai, aur four-hour chart par kaafi strong sell signals nazar aa rahe hain. Correction line ka breakdown aur Ichimoku cloud ka breach yeh sab downtrend ka continuation point karte hain. 15-minute chart par ek ascending wedge pattern form ho chuki hai, jo aam tor par current trend ke continuation ko indicate karta hai, matlab ke downward breakout ho sakta hai. Magar, exceptions bhi hoti hain jahan price wedge se upward exit kar jata hai, jo short-term reversal ka sabab banta hai. Filhal, sab se zyada likely scenario yeh hai ke decline ka resumption hoga, is liye main buying ke liye abhi cautious hoon. Price 146.79 tak rise kar sakti hai pehle ke naye selling wave ko trigger kare ya current levels se breakdown ho jaye. U.S. markets ki aaj low activity ki wajah se, day ka end flat ho sakta hai. USD/JPY pair pehle hi ek significant move dekh chuka hai, jisme 299-point drop aur phir 149-point correction hui, isliye kal ke session ka wait karna zyada prudent ho sakta hai taake zyada

USD/JPY ke H4 time frame chart par, yeh currency pair filhaal ek corrective phase se guzar raha hai, jismein zyada koi ahm khabar yen ya dollar ko asar nahi kar rahi. Correction hone ke bawajood, Thursday tak bearish trend ka silsila barqarar reh sakta hai. Market ka future direction samajhne ke liye, US unemployment claims data ki dynamics ka ghor karna zaroori hai, jo labor market ki halat par insight de sakta hai. Agar data weak labor market ko dikhata hai, toh yeh USD/JPY ke liye bearish sentiment ko support kar sakta hai.

Magar, US unemployment claims data ka naya release expect se behtar aya, jis ne US dollar ko support diya aur yen ke muqable mein dollar ki qeemat barh gai. Yeh better-than-expected performance is baat ki nishandahi karti hai ke labor market pehli projection se zyada healthy hai, jo dollar ki strength ko mazid barha sakta hai.

Traders aur analysts is development ko closely monitor karenge takay USD/JPY ke ainday ka rukh samajh sakein. Hamisha ki tarah, market participants ko immediate aur broader economic factors ko mad-e-nazar rakhte hue currency movements ko dekhna chahiye.

Agar USD/JPY pair 152.75 ka level hasil karta hai, toh yeh trend mein ek turning point ho sakta hai. Yeh level sirf accumulation ke liye nahi balki current bullish wave ke liye ek potential ceiling bhi ban sakta hai. Agar pair is level tak pohanchta hai, toh yeh bohat zyada resistance face kar sakta hai, jo ek sharp reversal ka sabab ban sakta hai.

Akhir mein, USD/JPY pair aane walay sessions mein kaafi volatility ka shikar ho sakta hai. Chahe yeh 150.50 directly pohanche ya raste mein rukawaton ka samna kare, yeh level bulls aur bears dono ke liye aik crucial battleground hoga. Traders ko hamesha vigilant rehna chahiye aur technical signals aur fundamental developments dono par nazar rakhni chahiye takay is dynamic currency pair ke ups aur downs ko navigate kar sakein.

Tuesday ko (20 August), US dollar yen ke against 145.36 par gir gaya, jab ke aik din pehle yeh 145.20 tak pohanch gaya tha, jo ke 7 August ke baad sab se kam level tha. Tuesday ke din foreign exchange market mein US dollar index ki mazeed girawat ne ghair-US currencies ko jama'ati tor par barhawa diya. Yeh is liye ke investors Wednesday ko aanay walay US employment data ke revision aur Federal Reserve ke Chairman Powell ke Jackson Hole Economic Conference mein iss haftay Wyoming mein hone wali taqreer ka intezar kar rahe hain, jahan se unhein interest rate cuts ke hawalay se zyada wazeh maloomat milne ki umeed hai. Japan mein, Bank of Japan ke Governor Kazuo Ueda se jumay ko parliament mein sawalat kiye jayein gay, jahan central bank ke pichlay mahine ke interest rate barhanay ke faislay par guftagu hone ki umeed hai. Agle hafte aane walay data ke mutabiq, jo ke Reuters ke 18 economists ke poll par mabni hai, Japan ki consumer inflation July mein tisray musalsal mahine ke liye barhni umeed hai. Yeh Bank of Japan ko mazeed rate hike par ghoor karne ka moqa day sakti hai, jab ke Bank ne pichlay mahine short-term interest rates ko 0.25% tak barhaya tha. Japan aur America ke interest rate adjustments ke mukhtalif iradon ke bawajood, yen ko dheere dheere mazeed bullish positions ka faida milne ki umeed hai.

Daily chart par, USD/JPY pichlay hafte 149.43 tak agay barhnay mein kamiyab nahi ho saka (149.43 woh 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level hai jo 161.96 se 141.68 ke decline ka hai (July se August)). Spot ne raat ke Asian low 145.86 se rebound kiya, lekin London mein 147.34 par rok diya gaya, jo is baat ki nishani ho sakti hai ke dollar ka counterattack nakam raha. Agar qareebi lows 145.30-145.00 toot jate hain, toh USD/JPY mazeed gir sakta hai

US Dollar aur Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) ke darmiyan jo currency pair hai us ne aik consolidation ka time guzara hai, jab ke yen ne teen din tak lagatar jeet ka silsila dekha. Ye consolidation bohot se asraat ke waja se hui, jin mein trade balance data, sood ki umeedat aur aney walay iqtisadi waqiat shamil hain. Japan ka July ka merchandise trade balance deficit dikhata hai, jo ke June mein hone walay surplus ke mukablay mein hai. Halaanki deficit market ki peeshgoiyoun se kam tha, lekin ye is saal ka paanchwa deficit tha, jo ke imports aur exports ke darmiyan ka farq dikhata hai. Is ke bawajood, yen ke nuqsanat mehdood rehne ki umeed hai kyunkay Bank of Japan ke taraf se qareebi future mein sood mein izafa hone ka imkaan barhta ja raha hai.
Dosri taraf, US mein, dollar ne teen din tak nuqsaan uthany ke baad apni position ko behtar karne ki koshish ki, jab ke traders Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ke July policy meeting ke minutes ke release ke intezaar mein ehtiyat barat rahe hain. Saath hi, traders Federal Reserve ke Chairman Jerome Powell ki Jackson Hole symposium mein aney wali speech ka intezaar kar rahe hain. CME FedWatch tool yeh dikhata hai ke Federal Reserve ke September meeting mein sood ki katoti ka imkaan kam ho gaya hai, aur ab 25 basis points ki katoti ko lagbhag 67.5% ki probability ke sath price-in kiya ja raha hai. 50 basis points ki katoti ka imkaan bhi kafi kam ho gaya hai.

Technical analysis ke lehaz se, USD/JPY pair abhi ek downtrend line ke neeche consolidate kar raha hai, jo ke bearish rujhan dikhata hai. 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) thoda sa 30 level ke upar hai, jo ke correction ka imkaan dikhata hai. Is pair ke liye support levels mein 144.00, 143.00, aur 141.69 shamil hain. Upper side pe, resistance ka samna girti hui trend line ke qareeb nine-day exponential moving average (EMA) ke 146.80 level pe ho sakta hai. Agar is level ke upar break hua, toh 154.50 ke resistance level tak ka test ho sakta hai, jo pehle support tha lekin ab resistance mein tabdeel ho chuka hai

USDJPY ka jo jor is hafte bearish halat mein tha, ne niche ki taraf rally ko continue kiya jab tak yeh 145.68 ka price zone cross nahi kar gaya. Ab price simple moving average of 100 ke neeche rehne ki koshish kar rahi hai. Jo market conditions mujhe technical taur par nazar aa rahi hain, unke mutabiq, is hafte ka market situation simple moving average zone of period 100 ke neeche trade ho raha hai, to yeh situation traders ko bearish trend par zyada focus karne ka ishara hai, kyun ke market trend pichle weekend se bearish side ki taraf ja raha hai.
Pichle July ke trading period se, market situation ab bhi bearish journey par nazar aa rahi hai. Agar niche ki taraf ka safar price zone 144.96 ko touch kar sake, to shayad price agle hafte tak aur bhi gir sakti hai. Pichle hafte ke trading ko dekhein to buyers ne candlestick ko uthane ki koshish ki thi, lekin increase itna zyada nahi ho saka kyun ke price 149.36 area ko touch karne ke baad neeche gir gayi thi. Uske baad candlestick girti rahi aaj ke trading period tak.

Technical taur par, Downtrend pattern market ke journey ko beech mein shadow kar raha hai. Iske ilawa, stochastic indicator se signal zone 20 ko touch kar gaya hai jo bearish market ka indication hai. Ab price subah ke opening se thodi neeche hai. Agle trade ke liye, seller troops ka target lower price area hai jo bearish side ki taraf ke journey ko continue karega. Mera khayal hai, market trend ke direction ke mutabiq Sell position open karne ke liye achha area agar price phir se 145.22 zone tak girti hai, to consider kiya ja sakta hai. Trend bearish side ki taraf continue karne se pehle ek upward correction ka chance bhi ho sakta hai

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis
Guzeel do dinon mein, USD/JPY currency pair mein kafi utaar-chadhav dekhi gayi hai, jo ki economic aur geopolitical factors se prabhavit hai. 5 August ko, yen ne 7 mahino ka sabse buland star par pahunch gaya jab Japanese authorities ne currency market mein intervention kiya, taqriban 5.53 trillion yen kharch karke currency ki madad ki. Is intervention ko partially 10-saal Japanese government bond ki yield mein girawat ne drive kiya, jo ki 0.8% se neeche aa gaya tha kyunki Federal Reserve ne kamzor US jobs data ke baad interest rates ko zyada aggressively cut karne ki ummeed thi.

Usi din, Bank of Japan ne anokhi rate hike ka elaan kiya, apni benchmark interest rate ko 0.25% tak badha diya aur economic conditions supportive rahe to rates ko aur badhane ka ishara diya. Ye move Japan ki economic challenges ke bawajood aya, jaise ki private consumption mein girawat aur economy mein contraction.

Dusri taraf, US ne niraasha janak economic data dekha, jaise ki weak manufacturing PMI aur economic slowdown ki chinta. In factors ne US stock futures ko neeche ki taraf dhakka diya aur USD/JPY pair par dabav badhaya. Federal Reserve ki commentary ne bhi US labor market ko protect karne ka ishara diya, jo ki aggressive rate cuts ko delay kar sakta hai.

Kul milakar, hawkish stance aur Fed ki cautious approach ne economic uncertainties ke beech ek volatile environment banaya hai USD/JPY pair ke liye. Investors central bank policies aur economic data par nazre rakhe huye hain taki future movements ka andaza lagaya ja sake, US jobs report aur dono central banks se monetary policy adjustments par khas tawajjah.

Forecast & Trading Strategy:

Aaj, maine dekha ki US dollar index ek achche value par hai. Isliye, USD/JPY ne 146.00 ka high break kar liya. Is level ko break karne ke baad, humne quote ko broken resistance par aate dekha aur level ko respect karne ke baad rebound dekha. Iska matlab hai ki US dollar Japanese yen ke khilaf mazboot ho raha hai. Daily chart mein do bottoms current price level ke paas dikhai dete hain, jo ki currency price ke liye resistance ka kaam karte hain. Toh, 146.80 ke upar break hoga to humein buying opportunity milegi

اگست 21 2024 کو امریکی ڈالر/جاپانی ین کی پیشن گوئی

امریکی ڈالر/جاپانی ین جوڑا، 146.50 پر سپورٹ لیول کو کامیابی کے ساتھ توڑنے کے بعد، روزانہ چارٹ پر اس سطح سے نیچے مضبوط ہو گیا ہے۔ ایک ہی وقت میں، قیمت 23.6% فبونیکی سطح سے نیچے مستحکم ہوگئی۔ مارلن آسیلیٹر کی سگنل لائن قیمت کے مطابق لیکن سست رفتاری کے ساتھ آگے بڑھ رہی ہے، جو کہ جاری اوپر کی طرف اصلاح میں ممکنہ پیچیدگیوں کی انتباہی علامت ہے۔



قیمت 148.82 کی سطح پر واپس آسکتی ہے۔ اگر یہ 144.30 پر سپورٹ کو توڑ سکتا ہے، تو جاپانی سنٹرل بینک کی مداخلتوں کی مدت کے بعد آسیلیٹر کی سست روی کو حرکیات کے معمول پر لانے کے طور پر سمجھا جا سکتا ہے۔ اس سے ہدف کی حد 139.70-140.27 کھل جائے گی۔



٤- گھنٹے کے چارٹ میں قیمت ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. لائن سے نیچے آ گئی ہے۔ مارلن آسیلیٹر مندی والے علاقے میں مضبوط ہو رہا ہے۔ مرکزی منظر نامے کے مطابق، ہم توقع کرتے ہیں کہ قیمت 144.30 کی سطح سے نیچے گرتی رہے گی۔

تعینات کیا مراد ہے مارکیٹ کے تجزیات یہاں ارسال کیے جاتے ہیں جس کا مقصد آپ کی بیداری بڑھانا ہے، لیکن تجارت کرنے کے لئے ہدایات دینا نہیں*

Monday se humaray pass hourly timeframe par aik sell signal tha, jo kay brown bar say mark kiya gaya hai, jisme choti si potential target 146.458 thi. Is kay ilawa, aik expansion bhi complete ho chuki thi. Iska matlab hai kay upper boundary par aik deviation ke baad, currency pair ne downward move kia aur lower boundary par deviation complete kiya. Abhi tak yeh pattern ke andar hi hai. Main aam tor par expansion formations ko trend ke haq mein dekhta hoon. Is waqt, USDJPY ka recent trend bearish hai, khas tor par agar 4-hour aur daily timeframe dekha jaye. Lekin abhi tak koi sell pattern nahi bana hai. Jee haan, humay aik naya support level fractals par milta hai, magar hamein expansion ko decline ki pehli wave nahi samajhna chahiye. Agar currency pair 145.155 ka level update karta hai, to yeh 1-2-3 structure banaayega jo descending waves ka hoga, aur southward movement ki possibility barha dega.
Pehle chart mein hum dekhte hain kay hourly signal par jo rise hua tha, wo mukammal ho gaya - jo kay green bar say dikhaya gaya hai aur target 148.484 tha. Aik higher timeframe par buy signal bhi hai 4-hour chart par - jo kay grey bar say dikhaya gaya hai. Iska target level 152.741 hai, magar completion abhi tak clear nahi hai. Mazeed, last sell signal jo 1-hour timeframe par tha, wo bhi complete ho chuka hai. 4-hour chart par aik sell signal bhi hai, jo kay buy signal kay opposite hai same timeframe par.

Main ne potential decline ko purple bar ke sath second chart par mark kiya hai, jo kay 143.295 ka target hai. Mera khayal hai kay yeh targets tab relevant honge jab currency pair 145.186 ke level ke neeche giray aur third wave of decline ko confirm kare. Graphically, maine in conditions ko blue mein highlight kiya hai. Is scenario mein, remaining downside potential kareeb 190 pips ho gi - jo kay aik acha movement hai

Have a nice day and lots of profit, everyone! Filhal meri trading strategy jo ke Heiken Ashi, TMA aur RSI indicators ka combination hai, mujhe yeh batati hai ke abhi waqt hai currency pair ya instrument ko sell karne ka, kyun ke system ke agreed signals yeh dikhate hain ke bears ne waqehi halat ka rukh badal diya hai, aur is silsile mein sales abhi priority hai. Heiken Ashi candles, jo ke price quotes ki value ko traditional Japanese candles ke mukable mein achi tarah smooth aur average karti hain, waqat par reversal moments, corrective rollbacks aur impulse shootouts ko dekhne mein madadgar hoti hain.
TMA (Triangular Moving Average) linear channel indicator jo ke moving averages par mabni chart par current support aur resistance lines draw karta hai, trading mein bhi achi madad hai, jo asset ki movement boundaries ko waqat ke mutabiq dikhata hai. Final signal filtering aur deal ka faisla karne ke liye RSI oscillator istemal hota hai, jo ke overbought aur oversold zones ko dikhata hai. Mera khayal hai ke is tarah ka trading instruments ka intekhab technical analysis ke process ko kaafi behtar banata hai aur market mein ghalat entry karne se bachne mein madad karta hai.

Jo chart diya gaya hai us pair ka, is duration mein candles ka rang red ho gaya hai, jo yeh matlab rakhta hai ke ab bearish mood bullish mood par hawi hai, aur ab aap market mein ek achi entry point dhundh kar short deal karne ka soch sakte hain. Price quotes ne linear channel ki upper boundary (blue dotted line) se bahar chalay gaye thay, magar jab lowest HIGH point tak pohnche, toh us se takrakar unhon ne central line ki taraf (yellow dotted line) direction badal di.

Basement RSI indicator (14) ko bhi dekha jaaye toh us ne bhi sell signal ko approve kiya hai, kyun ke iska curve neeche ki taraf hai aur oversold level se kaafi door hai. In sab ko madde nazar rakhtay hue, main ye nateeja nikaalta hoon ke abhi sales karne ka chance bohot zyada hai, aur short transaction open karna kaafi justified lagta hai. Main take profit lower border ke area mein expect karta hoon (blue dotted line), jo ke 141.673 ke price quote par hai.

Jab order profitable zone mein chala jaye, toh position ko breakeven par shift karna behtar hoga, kyun ke market kabhi kabhi humare expectations ko false movements se disrupt karne ki aadat rakhta hai

USD/JPY ne record high ko chhoo liya hai, jo ke ek tezi se izafa ko darshata hai, aur yeh profit-taking ka potential moqa bhi de sakta hai. Mazid yeh bhi mumkin hai ke US session se pehle kuch decline dekhne ko mile. Moving averages aur bullish channel ke upar breakout ne bearish pressure ko darshaya hai. Agar hourly chart analysis aur 15-minute chart ka jayeza liya jaye, to yeh dekha ja sakta hai ke current price ke upar moving average hone ke sabab, USD/JPY pair mein bullish trend ke continuation ka imkaan hai, jo ke ek higher zone tak ja sakta hai. Is hafte ke trend pattern mein ek narrow range mein uptrend ka zikar hai. Iss modest upward rally ko dekhte hue, yeh izafa agle hafte tak barqarar reh sakta hai, aur prices uptrend ko maintain kar sakti hain.

Subah ki candlestick ne 100-period simple moving average ke upar close kiya, jo ke market trend mein izafa ka ishara hai. Agar buyers 161.51 price zone ko paar kar lein... Abhi ke doran USD/JPY apni trend line ke upar trade kar raha hai, jo ke buyers ki taqat ko darshata hai, aur yeh trend line support ka kaam kar rahi hai. Bullish rally ke barqarar rehne ke liye, lagta hai ke buyers ko 162.15 resistance level ko break karna hoga, jo ke trading channel ko open karega aur bulls ke liye movement ka potential faraham karega. Pehla target supply zone 160.47 par ho ga, jahan historically sellers ne prices ko niche dhakela hai.

Ek reverse movement towards short side bhi mumkin hai, magar bears ko pehle 160.24 support level ko break karna hoga, jahan se aksar price ne bounce back kiya hai. Bear strength us waqt confirm hogi jab price 160.31 ke broken level ke niche consolidate karegi, jo ke price weakness ko darshata hai.

Yeh khaas tor par USD/JPY market mein pichlay Wednesday ke doran dekha gaya jab price ne us trading session mein significant downward movement kiya. Choti time frame mein, price ko monitor kiya gaya hai aur yeh abhi 50-period Simple Moving Average line ke upar hai, jo ke ek slight upward correction ko darshata hai. Yeh mumkin hai ke aaj ke price position 154.00 - 155.23 ke area ke ird gird consolidate ho jaye, kyun ke yeh conditions aksar Tuesdays ko hoti hain jab market activity relatively quiet hoti hai.

Agar H1 timeframe mein market trend conditions ka jaiza liya jaye, to yeh clear hai ke yeh filhal ek downward phase mein hai, halan ke range zyada wide nahi hai. Iss hafte ka trend thora bearish hai, bawajood iske ke USD/JPY pair ne July 2024 ke aaghaz mein trading sessions ke baad upward move kiya. Yeh imply karta hai ke agar USD/JPY is level ke niche hold nahi kar sakta, to yeh agle support levels ki taraf ja sakta hai, jo ke mumkinan 168.00 ya is se niche ho sakti hain. Agar support hold karta hai, to ek rebound ho sakta hai, aur pair previous highs ko test kar sakta hai jo ke 168.70-169.00 ke aas paas hain.

D1 moving average line ek trend indicator ka kaam karti hai. Agar USD/JPY is line ke upar rehta hai, to yeh bullish trend continuation ko darshata hai. Magar agar yeh moving average ke niche trading ko sustain karta hai, to yeh trend reversal ya consolidation phase ka ishara ho sakta hai.

USD/JPY pair ne apni downward trajectory ko continue kiya, jo ki strengthening US Dollar (USD) se largely influence kiya gaya tha. USD/JPY pair 141.71 ke new low par trade kar raha hai, jo level 1986 se nahi dekha gaya tha. Is trend ke bawajood, Japanese authorities ki verbal interventions yen ko kuch support offer kar sakti hain, potentially uski further decline ko curb kar sakti hain.
USD/JPY ke Fundamentals:
USD ne teen din ki losing streak ko break kar diya, US Treasury yields mein rise ke wajah se. Ye increase growing expectations ke wajah se aya ki Federal Reserve 2024 mein interest rates ko cut kar sakta hai. Mary Daly, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco ki President, ne acknowledge kiya ki monetary policy ka effect hai, lekin ye uncertain hai ki rates ko lower karne ka waqt kab hoga. Daly ne emphasize kiya, "Agar inflation sticky ya slowly decline karti hai, to rates ko higher for longer hona hoga,” according to Reuters.

Market participants ab Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell ki upcoming speech se insights ka wait kar rahe hain. Japan ke economic indicators ki taraf dekhte huye, Tankan Large Manufacturing Index ne second quarter mein 13 par uptick dekha, previous reading 11 se upar. Ye two saal mein highest level hai, improved economic outlook ko reflect karta hai. Lekin Japan ka Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI June ke liye revised slightly down 50 par kiya gaya, initial reading 50.1 se, lekin ye expansionary territory mein second consecutive month ke liye rehta hai.

Hourly Time Frame Technical Outlook:
USD/JPY pair 144.00 par trade kar raha hai. Hourly chart ko analyze karte huye, bullish trend dikhai deti hai, pair upper boundary of ascending channel pattern ke paas hai. Lekin traders ko caution exercise karni chahiye, kyunki 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) 70 se upar hai, indicating ki asset overbought ho sakta hai. Ye suggests ki potential correction horizon par ho sakti hai. Agar USD/JPY pair ascending channel ki upper boundary ko breach karta hai approximately 144.70 par, to ye bullish sentiment ko bolster kar sakta hai aur pair ko psychological resistance level 147.00 ki taraf drive kar sakta hai

USD/JPY Price Direction:
Is waqt hum USD/JPY currency pair ke pricing movements ka analysis kar rahe hain. USD/JPY currency pair ke liye, main sirf recent low 143.01 se buy karna pasand karunga. Pound aur euro ke charts ke mukable mein, jahan current price ke qareeb upward trend ka continuation ho sakta hai, 145.85 level ek strong buy entry ke liye zyada risky lag raha hai. Main intezaar karne ka plan bana raha hoon ke price 143.01 tak drop kare aur agar favorable conditions hon, toh 149.89 par profits pull karne ka aim rakhunga. Yeh baat wazeh hai ke bullish trend ab bhi intact hai, lekin pair ko 145.96-145.90 ke resistance zone ke upar apni position secure karni padegi. Is wajah se, do scenarios unfold ho sakte hain: ya toh USD/JPY pair agle hafte apni downward movement continue karega ya phir is resistance ke upar stabilize ho kar 151.85 ki taraf push karega. Is waqt, mujhe market mein entry ke liye koi compelling opportunities nazar nahi aa rahi, is liye main agle hafte tak wait karunga taake situation ko dobara assess kar sakoon.

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Jahan tak 145.85 par buy karne ka sawal hai, toh isme koi faida nahi hai, khas tor par September options contract par significant support chahiye, jab ke 145.73-145.49 range ke aas paas kuch outstanding obligations hain. Yeh support shayad break ho sakta hai. Lekin, ek zaruri short-term liquidity flood 0.0068 strikes (150.04 Forex) par hua, aur Forex par is liquidity ke liye trading range 150.92-145.84 hai. Is wajah se, 145.84 filhal contract ka primary support hai. Price is level ke neeche thoda dip kar sakti hai, lekin agar yeh hold nahi karti toh price upward move kar sakti hai. Lekin, agar 145.84 ke neeche consolidation hoti hai aur 145.72 par strike hota hai, toh price shayad 144.67 ka test karegi. September contract ka OI boundary 147.85-155.83 hai, isliye growth ki umeed tab hi karni chahiye jab yeh 147.85 ke upar stabilize ho jaye. Kyun ke contract 147.85 ke do strikes neeche open hua tha aur 146.78 strike ke neeche close hua, is waqt priority yeh hai ke retest ke baad 146.78+- se 145.72 aur potentially 144.67 tak decrease hona mumkin hai.