USD/JPY ایکسچینج ریٹ: آج کی قیمت اور مارکیٹ تجزیہ

USD/JPY Price Movement Studies

Main is waqt real-time mein USD/JPY currency pair ka pricing analysis kar raha hoon. Hamari current expectations yeh hain ke ek behtareen moka mile, jahan hum apne plans ko upward ya downward execute kar sakein. Mazboot downtrend ko dekhte hue, meri umeed yeh hai ke ek significant correction ho, jisse daam temporarily upar jaaye aur phir decline ka silsila dobara shuru ho. Correction ka intezaar market mein lamba arsa rehne ko mushkil bana sakta hai, kyun ke koi bhi retracement ek correction ka aghaaz ho sakta hai, aur is pair ka behavior thoda unpredictable hai. Halaat dekhte hue, main filhal ke levels par sell karne mein ehtiyat se kaam le raha hoon, lekin naye goals ko target karne ke liye ek notable pullback zaroori hai. Fed aur Bank of Japan ki aane wali meetings ke bawajood, kaafi volatility aur significant price movements expected hain. Mera bias abhi bhi bearish side par hai, lekin ek strong pullback ki zaroorat hai. Agar daam 145.76 se upar jaye, toh phir sell karne ka socha ja sakta hai.



Jahan tak interest rates ka taluq hai, yeh factors long-term movements ko influence karte hain, lekin ek haftay ke dauran price fluctuations zyada tar speculation aur varying expectations se driven hoti hain. Daam 200 se 300 points kisi bhi direction mein swing kar sakti hain. Technical perspective se dekha jaye toh abhi kisi substantial increase ka koi clear indication nahi hai. Ek minor rise, takreeban 100 points tak, downtrend ke dauran possible hai. Agar yeh short-term movement buyer strength ko dikhaye, toh yeh temporary taur par trend line ko break karke mazeed 200 points tak chadh sakta hai, aur shayad 144.66 tak pohonch jaye.

Meri nazar mein USD/JPY pair ke liye overall downward trend ab bhi clear hai, aur price ko neeche push karne ka pressure barqarar hai.

USD/JPY Price Movement

Main is waqt USD/JPY currency pair ke dynamic pricing behavior ka jaiza le raha hoon. Kuch arsa break lene ke baad maine dobara USD/JPY pair ka analysis kiya hai. Yeh pair ab bhi steadily neeche ja raha hai aur anticipated intra-day upward correction nahi dekhne ko mili. Price ne apne pehle low ko break kar diya hai, jisse internal pattern disrupt ho gaya hai. Downward trend tab tak jari rahega jab tak koi significant support level nazar nahi aata. Weekly Fibonacci retracement ke mutabiq, 38.1% mark ke aas paas support dikhai de rahi hai. Sellers ko daam ko mazeed neeche le jane mein mushkilat ka samna hai, lekin unhein yeh target hit karna hoga kisi potential reversal se pehle. Current sentiment abhi tak bearish hai, lekin yeh tab change ho sakta hai agar buyers support level ko defend karne mein kamyab ho jate hain. Agar aisa hota hai, toh mujhe lagta hai ke daam 14.5% level ki taraf barh sakta hai. Interesting baat yeh hai ke jab main doosri currency pairs ke muqable mein US dollar ke girne ki tawaqo karta hoon, toh USD/JPY ke barhne ki umeed hai, jo mujhe thoda hairan karti hai.



Yeh pair bearish trend mein hai. Friday ko bhi movement bearish trajectory ko follow kar rahi thi. Ab humein yeh dekhna hoga ke yeh bearish movement jari rehti hai ya koi alternative scenario samne aata hai. Pair ka technical analysis strong bearish signals de raha hai: moving averages selling recommend kar rahe hain aur technical indicators bhi selling ko support karte hain. In indicators ke mutabiq, lagta hai ke pair ka bearish movement jari rahega. Humein significant news releases par nazar rakhni hogi. Monday ko US manufacturing activity index ka optimistic forecast possible hai. Japan se koi major news nahi hai aur Monday ko Japan mein public holiday hai. In factors ko madde nazar rakhte hue, mujhe lagta hai ke pair mein aur girawat ka imkaan hai. Selling opportunities 140.09 support level ke aas paas mil sakti hain, jab ke buying opportunities 141.49 resistance level ke paas dekhne ko mil sakti hain.

Haal Hi Ki Taza Tareen Soorat-e-Haal Mein, Japanese Yen ne apni taqat dikhai hai, jo zyada tar Middle East mein barhte hue geopolitical tensions ki wajah se safe-haven flows ki wajah se hai. ABC News ke mutabiq, Israel Defense Forces (IDF) ne taqreeban 30 projectiles ko intercept kiya jo Lebanon se northern Israel ki taraf aa rahe thay. In mein se kuch projectiles open areas mein giray, lekin kisi qisam ki chot ya injury report nahi hui. Aakhri update ke mutabiq, USD/JPY currency pair 140.40 ke aas paas trade kar raha hai.

USD/JPY ke Fundamentals:

JPAM ke mutabiq, BoJ apni mojooda interest rate policy ko mustaqbil mein qaim rakhega, halan ke global currency markets ki complexities badh rahi hain. Firm ka kehna hai ke rate hike tab tak mumkin nahi jab tak Fed apni policy ko ease nahi karta aur US economy stabilize nahi hoti. BoJ ki policy mein kisi bhi shift ka imkaan 2025 tak hai, aur yeh global economic conditions par mabni hoga.

Kansas City Fed ke President Jeffrey Schmid ne ishara diya hai ke agar inflation qabo mein rehti hai to monetary policy ko reduce karna "munasib" ho sakta hai. Schmid ne observe kiya ke Federal Reserve ki mojooda policy "itni restrictive nahi" hai, aur halan ke Fed apne 2% inflation target ke qareeb hai, lekin abhi tak poori tarah se isay hasil nahi kiya gaya. Reuters ke mutabiq, yeh statement market expectations ko future mein honay wali Fed actions ke hawalay se mutasir kar sakti hai.

Hourly Time Frame Technical Outlook:

USD/JPY pair filhal crucial support levels par navigate kar rahi hai, aur yeh 17-maheenon ke low, 139.59, ko September 16th ko choo chuki hai. Agla support threshold 139.25 ke qareeb hai. Is downturn ke bawajood, thodi si momentum increase dekhne ko mili hai, jo yeh suggest karti hai ke thoda aur decline ho sakta hai, lekin USD/JPY short term mein 140.00 se neeche girne ke imkaanat kam hain. Immediate support 139.50 par dekha ja sakta hai, jab ke resistance levels 141.55 aur 142.00 par hain.



USD/JPY pair ke liye resistance 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke qareeb, 140.92, par aa sakta hai. Agar yeh resistance level break hota hai to bearish momentum kam ho sakti hai aur pair 14-day EMA, 140.28, ko test kar sakti hai. Agar pair is hurdle ko paar kar le, to yeh mazeed higher resistance level, 142.50, ko approach kar sakti hai, jahan pehle ka support ab resistance mein tabdeel ho gaya hai.

US dollar ne Tuesday ke early trading mein Japanese yen ke muqablay mein modest recovery dekhi, aur pair just above ¥140 level par hold kar raha hai. Agar market higher push karne mein kamiyab hoti hai aur ¥142 barrier ko break karti hai, toh further gains ki potential ho sakti hai. Lekin, Wednesday ko aane wali Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ki interest rate decision significant volatility la sakti hai. Traders is decision ko closely dekh rahe honge, jo ke Federal Reserve policy ke future direction ke guidance ke saath news conference ke baad aayega.

Friday ko Bank of Japan ke announcement ne uncertainty ko barha diya hai. Iska matlab hai ke market aane wale dinon mein zyada volatility dekhne ko mil sakti hai, kyunki traders central bank ke actions aur statements ko consider karenge. Noise ke bawajood, buying opportunities ka potential abhi bhi maujood hai, khas kar ke jab pair key uptrend line ke paas trade kar raha hai. Agar dollar 140 level ke upar hold karta hai, toh yeh zyada buyers ko attract kar sakta hai jo breakout ki talash mein hain.

Dusri taraf, agar dollar-yen pair din ke end tak 139 yen level ke neeche break karta hai, toh yeh bada collapse ka signal ho sakta hai aur price ko 135 yen area tak push kar sakta hai. Is pair ki movement ka zyada tar global risk appetite aur Federal Reserve aur Bank of Japan dono ke policy decisions par depend karega. Jabke Federal Reserve ke paas apne rates adjust karne ki room hai, Bank of Japan ko apne massive debt load ke bawajood tightening mein limits face karni pad rahi hai. Isliye, market ek major inflection point ke kareeb hai, jahan agle kuch din pair ke long-term direction ko determine karne mein crucial honge.

Currency Pair USD/JPY ka Jaiza

Mujhay lagta hai ke diversity buri cheez nahi hai, lekin abhi tak mere paas itna paisa nahi hai ke mai alag alag jagahon par invest kar sakoon. Jab tak pound aur yen ka muqabla hai, yeh kehna mushkil hai ke kaunsa instrument behtar hai, kyun ke har trader ki apni pasand hoti hai. Aur jab mai news indicators par focus nahi karta, toh yeh masla mere liye ziada ahemiyat nahi rakhta. Mai sirf chart par dekhta hoon aur wahan jo nazar aata hai, us par kaam karta hoon. Mera tareeqa sirf technical analysis par mabni hai, economic news ko main zyada ahmiyat nahi deta. Bus news release ka waqt yaad rakhta hoon. Maine yeh dekha hai ke kisi bhi news ka price direction par koi khas asar nahi hota jab news release hoti hai. USD/JPY ke hawalay se, jab se Bank of Japan ne rate hikes ka aaghaz kiya hai, ek medium-term downward trend ban sakta hai jisse paisa kamaya ja sakta hai. Agar price 149-150 tak barh jaye, toh mai sell karna shuru karunga. Halaanke abhi ek minimal correction hai, lekin technically yeh pair mazeed strong growth dekhna chahiye. Aise trend breakouts ka matlab hota hai ke mazid growth ki umeed hai, lekin filhal mujhe buy karne ka koi dil nahi hai.



Technical Perspective se:

USD/JPY pair is waqt 144.73 ke qareeb resistance ka samna kar rahi hai, jo yeh dikhata hai ke price ko mazeed aage barhne mein mushkilat ho rahi hai. Agar hum daily chart ka jaiza lein, toh pair ek bearish outlook dikhata hai, jahan technical indicators ek possible decline ki taraf ishara karte hain. Haal hi mein bearish sentiment ke bawajood, USD/JPY ne apni position gain ki, aur 144.57 par close hui, jo 143.67 se barh kar 145.04 tak gayi thi. Yeh price action yeh dikhata hai ke pair abhi bhi kuch resilience dikha raha hai, halaanke bearish indicators hain. Traders ko umeed hai ke aaj USD/JPY 143.80 se 145.20 ke range mein trade karegi, jab ke ek ahem resistance level 145.70 par hai. Agar yeh resistance level barkarar rahta hai, toh pair ke liye mazeed barhna mushkil hoga.

Technical setup yeh dikhata hai ke pair pichlay kuch dino mein koi significant decline nahi dikha saki, jo yeh imply karta hai ke bearish momentum ko market ke halat offset kar sakte hain. Ongoing resistance aur expected trading range yeh highlight karte hain ke market is waqt uncertain hai, aur traders ko resistance levels aur price movements ko ghair-mamooli ehtiyaat se dekhna hoga. Technical indicators yeh suggest karte hain ke bearish sentiment toh hai, lekin pair ka resistance levels ke qareeb apni jagah bana kar rakhna complex market environment ko dikhata hai, jo ainday ke trading decisions ke liye mazeed ehmiyat rakhta hai.

Trading Strategy with USD/JPY Prices

Hamari guftagu USD/JPY currency pair ke price action ka live jaiza lene par mabni hai. Price Action method aur "bearish engulfing" pattern ke mutabiq jo outcome expected tha, wo poori tarah say nahi aaya. Is model mein proportionality intehai zaroori hoti hai. Humay ek signal mila hai—ek bearish Doji, jo maine chart mein highlight kiya hai. Mujhe yaqeen hai ke dono signals apnay targets aglay hafte tak hasil kar lengay. Pehli case mein, maine spread ke baghair 101 points ka decline anticipate kiya tha, lekin mujhe ab bhi lagta hai ke yeh trading instrument aur neeche ja sakta hai. Fibonacci retracement levels ke mutabiq, mai expect karta hoon ke price 100th level 142.04 ko breach karega, aur yeh scenario step by step 138.1 pe 141.39 aur 161.7 pe 140.82 tak khelay ga. Halaanke channel ke upper boundary tak growth faydemand hogi, lekin mai apni position tab adjust karunga jab koi tezi se upward move hoga.



143.56 pe price test tab hua jab MACD indicator ne zero mark se neeche move karna shuru kiya, jo ke sahi entry point ka confirmation tha dollar ko sell karne ka, jo ke pichlay chand mahino se downward trend mein tha. Iska natija yeh nikla ke pair 60 se zyada pips neeche gir gaya. 142.90 pe rebound pe ki gayi purchases expected results nahi de saki. Kal Japan ke GDP growth mein kamzori aur bank lending ke volume mein kami ki khabron ne yen ki position ko affect kiya, jisse pair mein thoda recovery nazar aya. Lekin din ke dosray hisay mein phir se pressure aaya, jo yeh dikhata hai ke kuch log dollar ko zyada munasib aur attractive prices par sell karna chahte hain. Aaj ka report, jo Japan mein money supply aggregate ke badlao par mabni tha, ne pair ko horizontal channel mein rakha, jo medium-term downward trend mein mazeed decline ke chances ko barkarar rakhta hai.

Intraday Strategy ke hawalay se:

Mai zyada reliance Scenario No. 1 aur Scenario No. 2 ke implementation par rakhoonga.

Buy Signal Scenario No. 1:
Aaj mai USD/JPY ko 143.45 (green line chart pe) ke qareeb reach kartay waqt buy karne ka irada rakhta hoon, jiska target 144.01 (chart pe thik green line) ho ga. 144.01 par mai apni long positions exit kar dunga aur opposite direction mein shorts open karunga (30-35 pips ka move opposite direction mein expect kar raha hoon). Aaj ka increase pair mein ek correction ke tor pe aasakta hai.

Important:
Buy karne se pehle yeh ensure karna zaroori hai ke MACD indicator zero mark ke upar ho aur apni ascent shuru kar raha ho.

USD/JPY Mein Profit Ke Imkanat

Hamari guftagu USD/JPY currency pair ke price action ke live jaize par mabni hai. Main ne guzishta Thursday ko 141.79 ke support level se bullish rebound anticipate kiya tha, jo local trend line (green, sloping line) tak hoga, "Hammer" reversal pattern ke formation ke buniyad par. Is model ne ek bullish correction ka ishara diya, jis wajah se extended position lene ka logic tha. Halanki, pehle price upward move hui, lekin baad mein sell-off ne 141.79 ka support tod diya, aur price ko neeche dhakel kar 140.17 ke lower support level ko test kiya. Ye sab kuch bullish divergence hone ke bawajood Stochastic indicator par hua. Maine "Hammer" pattern ke buniyad par ek counter-trend buying ka chance liya tha. Agla potential target psychological level 139.01 hai, jo ke current volatility ke madde nazar jaldi reach ho sakta hai. Main expect karta hoon ke moving average ke aas paas maximum correction hoga, uske baad downward trend dobara jaari reh sakta hai.



Hourly chart par, price ek descending channel ke andar reh raha hai. Kal, pair mein decline dekha gaya, lekin yeh channel ke lower boundary tak nahi pohoncha. Agle step mein, price neeche gir kar 139.74 ke aas paas channel ke lower boundary ko target karega. Jab price is level tak pohonchegi, toh ek reversal ka imkaan hai jo price ko dobara channel ke upper boundary, 142.18 ke qareeb push karega. Daily chart mein 140.35 ka global support level mushkil se hold karega. Ab double bottom pattern form ho chuka hai, jo current level se ek minor bullish correction ka ishara deta hai. USD/JPY pair ke aggressive downtrend ke madde nazar—jo US dollar ki devaluation aur Japanese yen ki taqat ki wajah se hai—volatility abhi bhi high hai.

USD/JPY Market Analysis
September 16, 2024

H4 Hour

Is haftay USD/JPY currency pair mein zyada tabdeeli nahi hui kyunki price apne bearish trend mein hi chal rahi hai. Hafte ke aakhir mein, price jo 140.83 se chal rahi thi, ab bhi bearish trend ko continue kar rahi hai. Pichle Saturday raat ko market ne apne daily level se rally down kiya tha. Major timeframe chart ke trend ke mutabiq, market ab bhi bearish phase mein hai, aur is hafte ke bearish movement se yeh zahir hota hai ke market last week ke trend se niche ja rahi hai. Agle market trend ke liye, sellers ki army kaam kar rahi hai aur woh ek aur baar bearish move karne ki koshish kar rahi hai, shayad 129.40 - 130.00 ke aas-paas ke price level ko target karte hue.




Chart se yeh nazar aata hai ke candlestick dheere dheere Moving Average indicator ke neeche move kar rahi hai, jo ke sellers ke control mein strong bearish trend ko indicate karta hai. Main estimate karta hoon ke agle price movement mein phir se girawat dekhi ja sakti hai, pichle hafte ke market trend ko dekhte hue jo sellers ke dominance mein tha. Relative Strength Index indicator par Lime Line ki position jo level 50 ke neeche hai, bearish trend ka indication deti hai. Aaj aur kal, main sirf achi SELL trading entry points dhoondne par focus karunga, kyunki price 141.00 ke price level ko tod chuki hai, jo bearish trend ke continuation ke liye aur zyada opportunities kholti hai.

Technical Analysis of the USDJPY Pair

4-hour chart par, price sell zone mein trade kar rahi hai kyunki ye bearish price channels ke andar aur weekly pivot level ke neeche trade kar rahi hai. Price pehle gir gayi thi aur weekly support level 139.48 tak pahunche thi, jo channels ke lower line ke qareeb hai, aur iske baad price upar rebound kar gayi aur channels ke upper line aur weekly pivot level tak pahunche gayi. Price ne resistance ka saamna kiya jo ab decline ka sabab ban raha hai, aur downward price trend ka expectation hai ke support level 139.48 tak wapas aayegi.

Economic side par, USD/JPY exchange rate tezi se gir gaya hai kyunki investors US Federal Reserve ke upcoming interest rate decision ka intezaar kar rahe hain. Haal ke economic figures dikhate hain ke economy decline kar rahi hai, jiska matlab hai ke Federal Reserve ko US interest rates ko cut karna padega. Is mahine ke shuruat mein release hui economic data ne dikhaya ke unemployment rate August mein 4% se upar stable raha aur economy ne 113,000 jobs create kiye.

USD/JPY exchange rate ke liye ek aur bada catalyst Bank of Japan ka upcoming interest rate decision hoga jo Friday ko hoga. Ye decision ek mahine baad aata hai jab bank ne is saal ke dusre baar interest rates ko raise kiya tha. Economists expect kar rahe hain ke central bank is meeting mein wait-and-see approach rakhe ga, jabke inflation abhi bhi stubbornly high hai.

Bank of Japan aur US Federal Reserve ke decisions notable honge kyunki carry trade jo ke kaafi saalon se chala aa raha hai, us par asar dalega. Carry trade ek aisa situation hai jahan investors low interest rates wale deshon se paise borrow karte hain aur high interest rates wale deshon mein invest karte hain. Pehle, Japan mein negative interest rates ke saath borrow karna aur United States mein invest karna kaafi profitable tha. Ab, Fed ke rates cut karne aur Bank of Japan ke relatively hawkish stance ke saath, gap kam ho gaya hai, jo carry trade ko unattractive bana raha hai.

Humari tehqiqat ka mauzoo USD/JPY currency pair ki qeemat ki haliya soorat-e-haal ka tajziya hai. USD/JPY pair ne abhi abhi 144.53 ke support level ko tor diya hai, jo yeh zahir karta hai ke downtrend ka silsila jari reh sakta hai. Breakout ke baad 99 points ki girawat hui, jis ke baad pair ne upward correction ki koshish ki, aur kharidaar 144.53 ke resistance level tak kuch ground wapas hasil karne mein kamyab hue. Iss muqam se sell positions kholna munasib ho sakta hai, aur mazeed girawat ka target 140-141 range tak ho sakta hai. Dosri surat mein, agar pair 144.53 resistance ke upar rebound hota hai, toh recovery jari reh sakti hai, aur agle resistance 146.38 tak ponchne ka aim ho sakta hai. Hourly chart par ek ascending channel jhanda ki tarah nazar aa raha hai, jo yeh suggest karta hai ke downtrend dobara shuru ho sakta hai. Lekin H4 chart par pair ek descending channel mein hai aur uski lower boundary se bounce off hua hai. Agar price 144.49 ko tor de, toh 145.69 ka target lekar khareedari ki strategy munasib ho sakti hai USD/JPY pair ne abhi hal hi mein 143 tak girawat dekhi thi, lekin American trading session ke akhir tak 100 points ka izafa hotay hue recovery ki. Daily price chart ab ek bullish pattern dikha raha hai. Bears abhi tak price ko 144.99 ke key level ke neeche dhakelne mein nakaam rahe hain, jis se downward trend ke jari rehne par shak paida hota hai. Maujooda market ki uncertainty ko dekhte hue, ehtiyat ki zaroorat hai, kyun ke price kuch dinon tak is level ke aas-paas reh sakti hai. US dollar index ne ek mazboot weekly support level ko choo liya hai, jo yeh zahir karta hai ke dollar jald hi ek corrective rebound kar sakta hai. Speaker is waqt sirf sell positions lene ka soch raha hai aur buy karne ka koi irada nahi rakhta. Currency pair ne neeche se 143.99 level ko test kiya hai aur ab 144.49 tak upar chali gayi hai, jo ek positive sign hai, aur bulls Asian trading session ke dauran price ko mazeed 49 points tak le jaa sakte hain. Maujooda price 143.43 hai, jo 141.70 ke aham support level se thoda upar hai. Yeh level unn traders ka key target ho sakta hai jo girawat par bet kar rahe hain. Kuch consolidation ke baad, pair mazeed girne ka rujhaan rakh sakta hai. Lekin Bank of Japan ke hone ke bawajood, USD/JPY ki exchange rate mein zyada girawat ki umeed nahi ki ja sakti. Woh pehle hi ishara de chuke hain ke woh yen ki qeemat mein tezi se utar chadhav par mudakhlat kar sakte hain, jo ke yen ko kamzor kar sakta hai agar yeh ziyada mazboot ho jaye. Is liye, 129 ka target haqeeqat par mabni nahi lagta, kyun ke Bank of Japan 139 ke aas-paas mudakhlat kar sakta hai aur apni currency ko kamzor karne ke liye bazaar mein yen ki badi miktar inject kar sakta hai

USD/JPY Market Analysis
17 September 2024

USD/JPY ke daily timeframe ke chart ko dekhte hue, kuch aham points hain jo further analysis ke liye zaroori hain. Pehle, current price position 140.767 ke aas-paas hai, jo ke 139.145 ke area mein significant support ke qareeb hai. Price movement dikhata hai ke trend reversal ke baad, jo June 2024 mein peak 158.000 ke aas-paas hua tha, ek continued downtrend hai. 50 EMA aur 100 EMA significant selling pressure ko confirm karte hain. 50 EMA pehle hi 100 EMA ke neeche hai, jo ek bearish signal hai. Is ke ilawa, current price dono EMAs ke neeche trade kar rahi hai, jo USD/JPY pair ke bearish bias ko mazid barhata hai. Sabse qareeb support jo main observe kar raha hoon wo 139.145 level par hai, jabke sabse qareeb resistance 141.735 level par hai. Agar price 139.145 ke support ko break karti hai, to main expect karta hoon ke price further decline kar sakti hai lower levels ki taraf. Dusri taraf, agar yeh support hold hota hai, to price upward bounce kar sakti hai aur resistance 141.735 ko retest kar sakti hai.

Agar trend reversal hota hai, to main confirmation ka intezaar karunga ke price ne resistance level 141.735 ko successfully break kiya hai. Ye early signal dega ke selling pressure shayad ease ho raha hai aur lower price par buy karne ka mauka mil sakta hai. Chart ke price action structure ko dekhte hue, mera current focus yeh hai ke price ko 139.145 ke support ko break karte huye dekhoon ya is level se significant bounce dekhoon. Agar support ke qareeb reversal signal milta hai, to main long position consider kar sakta hoon jiska initial target 141.735 ke aas-paas hoga. Lekin agar selling pressure continue hota hai aur price 139.145 ke neeche girti hai, to main short position consider karunga lower target ke saath.

Daily Timeframe mein Movement
USDJPY currency pair ke daily timeframe mein price trend movement ki condition ke mutabiq, pichlay haftay ke trading session mein yeh dekha gaya ke trend zyada tar sellers ke asar mein tha. Yeh condition candlestick ki movement se wazeh hoti hai, jo lagataar neeche ki taraf move karti rahi, pichlay haftay se shuru hoke aur is haftay ke end tak barqarar rahi. Khaaskar agar hum aakhri trading din ka daily movement dekhen, toh ek lambi bearish candlestick bani thi aur yeh Monday ke opening price ke muqable mein neeche close hui. Is se yeh surat-e-haal bearish trend ko dikhati hai, jo ke stable volatility ke sath nazar aa rahi hai. Agar hum is haftay ke bearish movement ko pichlay haftay ke market trend ka silsila samjhen, toh yeh andaza lagaya ja sakta hai ke market apne bearish trend ki taraf hee chalti rahegi
Indicators ke reference ko dekhte huay jo market ko analyze karte hain. Relative Strength Index Indicator (14) par Lime Line ki direction wazeh hai, agarche pehle yeh line level 50 ke qareeb move karti thi, lekin ab yeh level 30 ke neeche break kar gayi hai. Dosray complementary indicators par MACD (12,26,29) ka histogram bar ka position neeche ki taraf jaa raha hai, aur uski shape choti hoti ja rahi hai, jo is baat ka ishara hai ke market abhi bhi bearish ki taraf ja raha hai. MACD signal ki dotted Yellow Line ka bhi rukh neeche ki taraf hai. Wahan candlestick bhi yellow Simple Moving Average 60 indicator ke neeche gir gaya hai, jo ke yeh dikhata hai ke daily timeframe par market ke halaat abhi bhi downward trend ki taraf hain

USD/JPY Market Outlook

Greetings aur Good morning sabko!

Kal US Empire State Manufacturing rate positive side par aaya. Yeh -4.1 se barh kar 11.5% tak pahuncha. Isliye, USD/JPY ka market bounce ho gaya aur 140.72 zone ko successfully cross kar diya. Aaj market sentiment ko samajhne ke liye technical aur fundamental analysis dono zaroori hain. Technical analysis historical price charts ko dekh kar aur moving averages, Relative Strength Index (RSI), aur Bollinger Bands jese indicators ka istemal karke patterns aur trends ko identify karti hai. Yeh tools potential future price movements ke insights deti hain aur traders ko trade entries aur exits ke decisions mein madad karti hain. Fundamental analysis, doosri taraf, economic data, corporate earnings, interest rates, aur geopolitical events ko evaluate karti hai jo market behavior ko influence kar sakti hain. Dono technical aur fundamental analysis ko combine karne se market ka zyada comprehensive view milta hai aur future price movements ke predictions ki accuracy badhti hai.

USD/JPY ke trading aims ke liye, main ek buy order prefer karta hoon with a short target of 141.45 aage. Yeh resistance zones trading mein significant levels hain. Yeh points chart par aise hote hain jahan asset ki price pehle move karne mein struggle karti hai. Yeh levels aksar barriers ban jaate hain, aur agar inke upar successfully break ho jaye to yeh ek strong bullish trend ka signal hota hai. Is waqt, buyers optimistic hain ke price is resistance zone ko push karke aage barhegi, jo ke further gains ka signal ho sakta hai. Yeh optimism yeh suggest karta hai ke market upward movement par believe kar rahi hai, shayad broader economic factors aur investor confidence ki wajah se. Umeed hai ke USD/JPY market buyers ko stable rakhegi aur resistance zone 141.45 ko jald ya der se cross karne mein madad karegi.

Successful trading day ki dua aur shaanti banaye rakhein!

Japanese Yen aur US Dollar ki Taqablaat

Tuesday ko Japanese yen (JPY) ne US dollar (USD) ke muqablay mein izafa dekha, jo ke Bank of Japan (BoJ) ke hawkish sentiment ki wajah se tha. Traders Friday ko BoJ ke policy decision ki ummeed laga rahe hain, jahan expectations hain ke interest rates ko hold kiya jayega lekin future hikes ki possibility bhi barqarar rakhi jayegi. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki ne foreign exchange rates mein tez tabdeelion ke bare mein chinta zahir ki, aur sarkar ke economy aur logon ki zindagi par asar ko nazar mein rakhne ki baat ki. Sarkar ne zarurat par currency market mein intervent karne ki bhi raazmandi zahir ki hai.

Is darmiyan, US dollar abhi bhi pressure mein hai, kyunki Federal Reserve (Fed) se zyada aggressive interest rate cut ki expectations hain. CME Fedwatch tool ke mutabiq, September meeting mein 50-basis point reduction ke zyada chances hain.

USD/JPY Analysis

USD/JPY pair filhaal 140.60 ke aaspaas trade kar raha hai, jo ke descending channel ke andar downward trend dikhata hai. Relative Strength Index (RSI) oversold conditions ko indicate kar raha hai, jo ke upar ki taraf ek potential correction ki taraf ishara karta hai. USD/JPY pair ke liye support levels hain 140.25, jo July 2023 se sabse neecha level hai, aur psychological level 140.00. In levels ke neeche break hone se downward trend barh sakta hai aur pair ko descending channel ke lower boundary ki taraf 138.30 tak le ja sakta hai.

Resistance levels USD/JPY pair ke liye 9-day moving average par 141.95 aur 21-day moving average par 143.78 hain. In levels ke upar break hone se ek potential reversal signal mil sakta hai aur pair ko descending channel ke upper boundary tak 145.40 tak le ja sakta hai. Dollar mein positive strength buyers ke liye 143.60 ke aaspaas ek opportunity khol sakti hai is hafte ke dauran.

PY par yeh bearish pressure ziada economic concerns ka aks ho sakta hai. Misal ke taur par, agar U.S. dollar kamzor ho raha hai due to softer economic data ya Federal Reserve ke dovish comments ke wajah se, to yeh pair ke decline mein ek sabab ban sakta hai. Dosri taraf, Japanese yen mein mazid taqat, shayad safe-haven demand ya positive domestic economic indicators ke wajah se, is downward movement ko barhawa de sakti hai. Traders ke liye yeh tabdeeli both challenges aur opportunities paida karti hai. Jo log long positions hold kar rahe hain, unko apni strategies dobara ghore se dekhni par sakti hai, khaaskar agar pair support levels ko tor kar neeche jata hai. Wahan short sellers ke liye yeh environment mazeed girawat se faida uthane ke liye moafiq ho sakta hai, khaaskar agar bearish momentum barhti hai. Bunyadi baat yeh hogi ke dekhna hoga ke USDJPY pair 146.86 level ke ird gird kis tarah behave karta hai aur kya yeh zone reversal ka point banega ya sirf mazeed bearish action ke liye ek stepping stone banega. USDJPY pair ke recent price action se yeh zahir hota hai ke bearish sentiment mein ek shiddat aayi hai, jahan sellers ne successful push karke price ko 146.86 zone tak le aaye hain thi, jahan candlestick pattern "Evening Star" ne diagonal support ke break hone ke baad ek tez girawat indicate ki thi, aur uske baad sellers ne kaafi arsay tak market apne control mein rakhi. Total girawat 1720 points thi, aur reference point Fibonacci level 88.2 tha, jo ek significant Moving Average (MA) se coincide kar raha tha. Maine yeh sab screen par draw kiya tha, jahan direction ruk gayi thi, aur price ne kafi upar move kiya. Mera yaqeen hai ke aane wale haftay mein hum 148.53 tak pohonch sakte hain, jo ke kam az kam 200 points ka move hoga. Main suggest karta hoon ke apne trading strategy ke mutabiq is plan ko dobara dekhein. Economic calendar mein Japan aur US dono se kaafi important news aa rahi hain, toh fundamentals bhi price action ko influence karenge USD/JPY currency pair ne upar ki taraf ek strong correction dekhi hai, lekin main filhaal in prices par sell karne mein ehtiyat mehsoos kar raha hoon. Dekhte hain agle hafta kya laata hai, kyun ke humein abhi yeh weekend guzarni hai. Main yeh nahi keh raha ke market mein kuch bhi fixed hai, lekin Middle East mein naye tensions hain, aur agar kuch hota hai, toh Monday ko market khulte hi surprises dekhne ko mil sakte hain. Lekin kisi bhi surat mein, yeh Japanese yen ko mazid strong kar sakta hai. Bearish trend abhi bhi relevant hai, aur agar Monday ko prices 147.90 mark se upar break nahi karti, toh phir market mein sell karne ke liye enter karne ka waqt ho sakta hai. Phir bhi, weekend par is idea ka tajzia karenge, tamam fundamental factors ko madde nazar rakhte hue final faisla karne se pehle Meri analysis ke mutabiq, USD/JPY is level ke neeche hold nahi kar pata, toh yeh agle support levels ki taraf move kar sakta hai, jo ke possible 168.00 ya us se niche ho sakta hai. Agar support hold karta hai, toh ek rebound ho sakta hai, aur pair pehle ke highs ko test kar sakta hai jo ke 168.70-169.00 ke ird-gird ho sakte hain. D1 moving average line ek trend indicator ka kaam karti hai. Agar USD/JPY is line ke upar rehta hai, toh yeh bullish trend continuation ko suggest karta hai. Lekin, agar yeh moving average ke neeche sustained trading hoti hai, toh yeh ek trend reversal ya consolidation phase ka ishara ho sakti hai.