USD/JPY ایکسچینج ریٹ: آج کی قیمت اور مارکیٹ تجزیہ

Ye currency pair downward trend ke mutabiq move kar raha hai agar hum current events ko dekhein, aur pehle ke movements ko madde nazar rakhein, to mein yeh andaza laga sakta hoon ke price lower limit ki taraf jaane ki koshish kar rahi hai. Agar yeh limit break hoti hai, to iska matlab hoga ke price mazeed neeche girne ki khwahish rakhti hai. Test ke dauran, mein rebound ka intezar karunga aur northern direction mein market mein enter hone ka moka talash karunga, khas tor par agar chhoti timeframe par koi buying ka pattern milta hai. Lekin ziada chances hain ke regulator ne is haftay intervene kiya ho jab price, baghair kisi obvious waja ke, girna shuru hui jab buyers ne EMA 120 ke upar apni position banayi thi. Mein is haftay closely dekhoonga ke price narrowing formation mein kaisay behave karegi aur haftay ke aakhir tak movement ke results ke mutabiq kya priorities samne aati hain. Ab tak direction dono taraf ja sakta hai, lekin mera rujhan abhi bhi southern side hai.

Weekly chart par, dollar yen pair ko dekh raha hoon. Pair ascending trend line ke upar trade kar raha tha. Jab buyers ne apna profit secure kiya, to pair girna shuru hui. Yeh bohot actively gir rahi thi, aur phir 141.508 tak gir gayi. Daily timeframe par, mein ne pehle yeh andaza lagaya tha ke yeh buyers ke stops ko nikal rahi hai.

Buyers Tuesday ke trading mein apni dominance barqarar rakhne mein nakam rahe, jab price daily open ke upar 146.90 par move hui thi. Woh sirf 147.22 tak hi le ja sake, jahan se price ne direction reverse kar liya aur ek lambay weakening phase se guzra. Sellers ke is pressure ne EMA 12 aur EMA 36 H1 par downward cross banaya, jo negative price flow ka ishara de raha hai. Kal ke strong sellers ne price ko sirf EMA 200 H1 tak pohchaya nahi, balkay isay penetrate bhi kar diya. Lekin 145.16 se ek pullback aya jis ne price ko upar ki taraf move karne ki koshish ki lekin yeh ziada door nahi ja saka, EMA 12 H1 ne buyers ke push ko rok diya aur price phir se gir gayi. USD/JPY market ne aakhir kar lower close kiya at 145.47.

Wednesday ko trading ke liye, USD/JPY market ne 145.47 par open kiya. EMA 200 H1 thoda sa upar cross kiya, jo ke 145.66 par tha. Asian session mein price almost poora waqt apne daily open ke neeche hi consolidate karti rahi. European session ke qareeb price neeche move hui aur is movement ka rukawati point apne qareeb support 144.82 par aya. Yeh area ab tak penetrate nahi hua lekin H1 trend mein price abhi downward movement mein hai jahan price EMA 200 H1 ke neeche move kar rahi hai. EMA 12 aur EMA 36 H1 bhi yeh bata rahe hain ke price neeche jaane ka rujhan rakhti hai. Filhaal price daily open aur apne qareeb support ke darmiyan hai.

Aaj hum USD/JPY currency pair ke current price behavior ka analysis kar rahe hain. USD/JPY mein achi khaasi girawat dekhnay ko mili hai, lekin abhi sell positions open karna jaldi baazi hogi. Guzishta hafta price ne descending channel ko break kiya tha, toh ab jo girawat ho rahi hai, wo aik corrective pattern ke mutabiq hai. Aik strong support level 144.39 par maujood hai jo is girawat ko roknay mein madadgar ho sakta hai, isliye yeh long positions ka aik acha moqa ho sakta hai. Lekin, pullback ki gehraai ko dekhte huay, behtar yeh hoga ke chhoti time frames se confirmation signal ka intezaar kiya jaye, jaise ke 146.29 ke minor resistance ka break hona. Agar targets ki baat ki jaye, toh Fibonacci grid ke mutabiq 161.8% ka level, jo ke 149.59 ke qareeb hai, ek possible goal ho sakta hai, jo recent high se zyada hai.
Is waqt price ek ascending price channel ke andar trade ho raha hai. Aaj pair 145.79 ke lower boundary tak gir gaya tha, lekin girawat ko barqarar nahi rakh saka, jiska natija aik reversal aur upward move mein nikla. Ab, mujhe umeed hai ke price channel ke upper boundary tak grow kar sakta hai jo ke 147.93 hai. Yeh abhi dekhna baqi hai ke price apni current position se girawat ko barqarar rakh payega ya nahi, lekin ek baat wazeh hai ke jab tak price 151.83 ke qareeb aik correction nahi karta, main sell position lene ka sochunga bhi nahi. Market filhaal indecisive hai, jahan bulls aur bears mein se koi bhi clear direction nahi bana pa raha. Main lagataar alag alag currency pairs ke movements ko dekh raha hoon, lekin yeh setup suggest karta hai ke USD/JPY pair ek triangle jaisa pattern bana sakta hai. Jab tak price 151.83 ke upar stabilize nahi hoti, mera rujhan bearish ki taraf rahega

USD/JPY pair ab aise nishaan dikhata hai ke buyers agle waqt mein dominate kar sakte hain. Jabke buyers ke samne challenges hain, wo apni positions ko barqarar rakhe hue hain. Maujooda conditions ko dekhte hue, umeed hai ke prices waqt ke sath barh sakti hain. Lekin, sellers abhi bhi significant influence rakhte hain aur apne control ko asaani se nahi chhodenge. Current Market Dynamics
Is waqt, buyers struggle kar rahe hain lekin persist kar rahe hain, jo ke near future mein bullish shift ka ishaara hai. Agar current conditions waisa hi rahengi, to prices ke barhne ki strong likelihood hai. Fundamental data releases par nazar rakhna zaroori hai, kyunki ye market ke direction ko determine karne mein important role play karenge. Economic statistics ka impact bullish trend confirm karne mein key hoga.

Key Considerations for Traders

- Buyer Persistence: Challenges ke bawajood, buyers apni positions ko maintain kar rahe hain. Ye persistence is baat ki indication hai ke agar conditions favorable rahengi, to higher prices ki taraf shift ho sakti hai.
- Seller Influence: Sellers abhi bhi active hain aur market par influence daal rahe hain. Unki price action control ki ability ko aane wale economic data se test kiya jayega.
- Fundamental Data: Aane wale economic releases se market par significant impact padega. Positive data market ko bullish trend ki taraf drive kar sakti hai. Wahi, weak data current bearish sentiment ko sustain kar sakta hai.
- Technical Correction: Agar market bullish direction ki taraf shift hoti hai, to corrections ke doran buying opportunities dekhna achha hoga. Bullish trend ke shift mein temporary dips aa sakti hain jo traders ko upward movement ka faida uthane ka mauka de sakti hain.

Long-Term Outlook

Historically, USD/JPY pair mein sustained downward movement ki kami rahi hai. Current downward trend ek temporary phase lagta hai, jo ke ek "tail" banane se pehle ka phase ho sakta hai. Ye perspective is baat ke sath align karta hai ke current bearish movement shayad ek stronger upward trajectory ka precursor ho sakti hai.

Conclusion

Summary ke tor par, USD/JPY pair bullish movement ke liye poised hai, buyers ki persistence aur aane wale fundamental data ke impact ko dekhte hue. Jabke sellers abhi bhi influence daal rahe hain, unka control favorable data aur market conditions se challenge ho sakta hai. Traders ko bullish signals ka intezaar karna chahiye aur corrective phases ke doran market mein enter karne par ghoor karna chahiye agar trend positive hota hai. Current downward

USD/JPY pair ka price downward trend kay mutabiq move kar raha hai agar hum current situation ko dekhein. Pehlay kay movements ko dekhte huay, main assume kar sakta hoon ke price lower limit ki taraf ja rahi hai aur agar yeh limit break ho gayi, toh yeh price kay further neechay janay ki desire ko zahir kare gi. Test ke dauran, main northern direction main rebound par market main entry karnay ka mauqa talash karun ga, specifically chhoti time frame par buying ka koi pattern ho toh. Lekin zyada chances hain ke regulator ne iss haftay intervene kiya jab price bina kisi wazeh wajah ke decline hona shuru ho gayi jab buyers ne heavy EMA 120 ke upar secure kiya tha.

Is haftay, main qareeb se dekhoon ga ke price narrowing formation main kaisa behave kare gi aur week ke end tak kis taraf priorities samne aayengi based on price movement in this range. Abhi tak direction dono sides par ja sakti hai, lekin preference ab bhi south yani neechay ki taraf hai. Main dollar yen pair ko weekly chart par dekh raha hoon. Yeh pair ascending trend line ke upar trade kar raha tha. Jab buyers ne apna profit fix karna shuru kiya, pair ne decline hona shuru kar diya. Yeh bohat actively decline ho kar 141.508 tak pohanch gayi.Chhoti timeframes, jaise kay daily par, mujhe laga kay buyers kay stops le raha tha. Buyers Tuesday kay trading main apni dominance ko maintain nahi kar paye jab price 146.90 kay daily open kay upar gayi, aur sirf 147.22 tak pohanch sakay. Iss area se price ne direction reverse ki aur long weakening dekhi. Sellers ke is pressure ki wajah se EMA 12 aur EMA 36 H1 par downward cross bana, jo ke negative price flow direction ko indicate karta hai.

Kal kay strong sellers ne price ko sirf EMA 200 H1 tak nahi pohanchaya balke isay penetrate bhi kar liya. Magar 145.16 se ek pullback hua jiss ne price ko upar move karwaya, lekin aur aagay nahi ja sakti thi, EMA 12 H1 ne buyers ko roka aur price dobara neechay gir gayi. USD/JPY market finally lower 145.47 par band hua. Aaj ke trading kay doran, USD/JPY market 145.47 par open hui. EMA 200 H1 uske thora ooper cross hua, yani 145.66 par. Asian session main consolidation kay baad bhi, price apne daily open kay neeche thi. European session ke qareeb price neechay move hui aur sab se qareeb support 144.82 par ja kar ruki.Yeh area abhi tak penetrate nahi hua, lekin H1 trend abhi downward hai jahan price EMA 200 H1 ke neeche move kar rahi hai. EMA 12 aur EMA 36 H1 bhi same downward behavior dikhate hain. Abhi tak price daily open aur uske qareeb support kay darmiyan hai.

Humari analysis ka maqsad USD/JPY currency pair ki price behavior ki mojooda situation ka jaiza lena hai. USD/JPY pair ne haal hi mein 144.53 ki support level ko tor diya, jo is baat ki nishani hai ke downtrend jari reh sakta hai. Is breakout kay baad, pair ne 99 points ka drop dekha aur uske baad upward correction ki koshish ki, jahan buyers ne thodi ground wapis lete huay resistance level 144.53 tak pohanchaya. Iss point se sell positions open karna munasib hoga, aur 140-141 ke range tak mazeed decline ko target karna chahiye. Dusri surat mein, agar pair 144.53 resistance ke upar rebound karta hai, toh recovery jari reh sakti hai, jahan next resistance 146.38 hogi.
Hourly chart par ek ascending channel flag ki tarah nazar aata hai, jo is baat ki taraf ishara karta hai ke downtrend phir se resume ho sakta hai. H4 chart par pair descending channel mein hai, jahan se yeh lower boundary se bounce kiya hai. Agar price 144.49 ko break karay, toh 145.69 ko target karte huay buying ek viable strategy ho sakti hai.

USD/JPY pair ne haali mein kareeb 143 tak fall kiya tha lekin ab recover karke American trading session ke end tak 100 points gain kar chuki hai. Daily price chart ab bullish pattern dikhata hai. Bears price ko 144.99 ke key level se neeche push karne mein nakam rahe hain, jo downtrend ke continuation par shak paida karta hai. Mojooda market ki uncertainty ke madde nazar, ehtiyat baratna behtar hoga, kyunke price is level ke aas-paas kuch dinon tak rehsakti hai.

US dollar index ab ek strong weekly support level par hai, jo is baat ki taraf ishara karta hai ke dollar mein jald hi ek corrective rebound aa sakta hai. Speaker filhal sirf selling ki taraf dekh raha hai aur buying ka irada nahi rakhta. Currency pair ne 143.99 level ko neeche se test kiya hai aur ab tak 144.49 tak pohanch gaya hai, jo ek positive sign hai. Bulls Asian trading session mein price ko mazeed 49 points upar push kar sakte hain.

Mojooda price 143.43 abhi 141.70 ke important support level se zara upar hai. Yeh level traders kay liye ek key target hai jo decline par bet kar rahe hain. Thodi consolidation kay baad, pair mazeed neeche gir sakta hai. Lekin, Bank of Japan ke chances kam hain ke woh USD/JPY exchange rate mein significant drop hone de. Woh pehle hi ishara de chuke hain ke agar yen ki value mein zyada fluctuation aayi toh woh currency market mein intervene karenge, jo yen ko kamzor kar sakta hai agar woh bohot zyada strong ho jaye. Isliye 129 ka target realistic nahi lagta, kyunke Bank of Japan kareeb 139 level par intervene kar sakti hai aur zyada yen inject kar ke apni currency ko kamzor kar sakti hai.

**US Dollar Ki Recovery Ki Koshish Aur Girawat**

Is hafte ke aghaz mein US dollar ne kuch recovery ki koshish ki, lekin phir usne tezi se girawat dekhi. ¥142 ka level ab traders ke liye ek key point ban gaya hai. Yeh na sirf ek significant round number hai, balki is zone ne pehle bhi khaas market activity dekhi hai. Iski ahmiyat ko barhane wale factors mein se ek yeh hai ke yeh uptrend line ke saath intersect karta hai, jo is area ko ek key support zone bana sakta hai.

**Dollar Ki Momentum Ka Sawal**

Ab sabse bara sawal yeh hai ke kya dollar momentum wapas le sakta hai. Agar market ¥145 ke level ko break karne mein kamiyab hoti hai, to yeh further upside potential ka signal de sakta hai. Aise mein, agla target shayad ¥147.50 level hoga, jo ke psychologically important ¥150 level ke pehle aata hai. Lekin agar dollar girawat ka silsila jari rakhta hai aur ¥142 ke support zone ko break karta hai, to agla significant level ¥137.50 ke aas-paas hoga, jo ek aur major support line ka kaam karega.

**Global Risk Sentiment Ka Asar**

Yeh market global risk sentiment ke zyada influence mein hai. Recent mein carry trade ka unwinding, jo dollar ko support kar raha tha, ne volatility ko barhaya hai. Yeh trend continue hota hai ya reverses hota hai, isse global markets par wide impact ho sakta hai. Japanese yen, jo ke ek major safe haven currency hai, aam taur par tab majboot hota hai jab market participants risk-averse hote hain. Agar risk appetite low rahta hai, to USD/JPY mein selling pressure barh sakta hai, jo ke sirf is pair tak mehdood nahi rahega, balki across asset classes bhi dekhne ko mil sakta hai.

**Short-Term Movement Aur Technical Levels**

Agar short-term movement ko dekha jaye to US dollar ka yen ke muqablay mein chalna kai factors par depend karta hai, jin mein key technical levels aur broader global risk sentiment shamil hain. Traders ko 145 aur 142 yen ke levels par nazar rakhni chahiye, kyunki yeh levels agle bade move ke clues provide kar sakte hain. In levels ki monitoring se traders ko yeh samajhne mein madad milegi ke pair agle kuch hafton mein kis direction mein move kar sakta hai.

**Khulasah**

In conclusion, US dollar aur yen ke beech ka short-term movement technical aur sentiment-based factors se impact hota hai. Traders ko yeh levels aur global risk trends ko closely follow karna chahiye taake woh timely decisions le sakein aur market ke agle moves ko accurately predict kar sakein.

Amreeki dollar ne is haftay ke aghaz mein wapas sambhalne ki koshish ki, magar phir achanak ulta chal pada aur tez girawat ka shikar hua. ¥142 ka satah abhi tajiron ke liye aik aham nukta ban gaya hai. Yeh na sirf apni gol number ke sabab se ahmiyat rakhta hai, balki is ilaqay mein pehle bhi kafi market harkat dekhne mein ayi hai. Is ke ilawa, yeh aur bhi ahmiyat ka hamil hai kyun ke uptrend line bhi is satah ke aas-paas intersact kar rahi hai, jo ke aik aham support ka ilaqa ban sakti hai.
Ab markazi sawal yeh hai ke kya dollar dobara momentum hasil kar sakega? Agar market ¥145 ke upar break karne mein kamiyab ho jata hai, to yeh mazeed oopar jane ki guftagu ka signal ho sakta hai. Is surat mein agla hadaf mumaqin tor par ¥147.50 ka satah hoga, jis ke baad aik aur manfsi tor par ahmiyat rakhnay wala ¥150 ka satah aata hai. Magar agar dollar girta rehta hai aur ¥142 support zone ke neechay break karta hai, to agla ahmiyat rakhnay wala satah kareeban ¥137.50 ka hoga, jo ek aur bari support line ka kaam karega.

Yeh market zyada tar global risk sentiment se mutasir hai. Carry trade ke unwind hone se jo dollar ko support mil rahi thi, us se volatility barh gayi hai. Yeh trend jaari rehta hai ya ulat jata hai, iska asar poore global markets par hoga. Japan ka yen aik bara safe haven hai, aur jab market participants risk se door bhagte hain, to yen aksar mazid taqatwar hota hai. Agar risk appetite neeche rehti hai, to hum USD/JPY mein selling pressure dekh sakte hain, sirf is pair mein nahi balki doosri asset classes mein bhi.


Nateejatan, amreeki dollar ka yen ke khilaf qareebi waqt mein harkat kai factors par mabni hai, jin mein aham technical satah aur broader global risk sentiment shamil hain. Tajiron ko ¥145 aur ¥142 yen ke satah par ghoor rakhna chahiye, kyun ke yehi nuktay aglay bade move ke bare mein ishara denge, aur yeh tay karenge ke aglay chand hafton mein is pair ki direction kya hogi.

Amreeki dollar/Japanese yen pair ne late trading ke dauran aik bara izafa dekha, jo 1.50% ya 241 pips se zyada ka tha. Yeh rally Bank of Japan ke aik official ke bayan ke baad hui, jismein unhon ne is baat ka ishara diya ke central bank apni mojooda interest rate policy ko barqarar rakhega, jo ke volatile market ke halaat ki wajah se zaroori hai. Is ke natijay mein, yeh pair apne daily low 141.80 se wapas utha aur trading ke band hote waqt kareeban 142.30 par set ho gaya.
**Japan ki Wage Growth aur Amreeka ki Inflation Outlook**

Japan ke Chief Cabinet Secretary, Yoshimasa Hayashi, ne haal hi mein yeh wazeh kiya ke mazdoori mein izafa, part-timers aur choti businesses tak shamil ho sakta hai iss autumn mein. Is optimism ko strong Shunto ke natayej aur minimum wage hikes ne mazid taqat di hai. Hayashi ne foreign exchange levels par comment nahi kiya, magar Japan ke Labor Cash Earnings data ne June ke liye 4.5% year-on-year izafa dikhaya hai. Yeh figure pichle 2.0% aur forecasted 2.3% readings se zyada hai, jo January 1997 ke baad se sabse bara izafa hai, aur yeh Japan ke high interest rate environment ki taraf shift ko mazid mazbooti deta hai.

Doosri taraf, Amreeka mein, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco ki President Mary Daly ne apne Monday ke remarks mein is baat par barhawa diya ke US inflation Fed ke 2% target ki taraf barh rahi hai. Daly ne yeh bhi kaha ke Fed ke mandates ke risks ab zyada balanced ho rahe hain, aur unhon ne future meetings mein rate cuts ke imkan par bhi hint diya.

**USD/JPY Aham Resistance Levels aur Bearish Trends ka Samna Kar Raha Hai**

Yeh pair 143.00 ke neechay se rally karta hua upar gaya jab Bank of Japan ke Deputy Governor ke dovish comments samne aaye. Agar yeh pair 145.00 mark se upar break karta hai, to agla aham resistance level jo dekhna hoga wo Tenkan-Sen par 146.45 ke qareeb hoga. Prices us waqt mazeed barh sakti hain agar 147.00 se upar break karein, aur uske baad psychological 150.00 figure ko challenge karne ki koshish karengi.


Jumay ke market close ke waqt, spot price kareeban 142.30 par trade kar raha hai. Hourly chart analysis yeh dikhata hai ke yeh pair aik descending channel mein consolidate kar raha hai, jo ke bearish trend ko darshata hai. Iske ilawa, 14-day Commodity Channel Index (CCI) abhi bhi 30 se neeche hai, jo ke short-term rebound ke imkaan ko signal kar raha hai.

**USD/JPY Forum Analysis, Forecast (Roman Urdu Translation)**
Yeh currency pair neechay ki taraf chal raha hai agar hum haal ke events ko madde nazar rakhein. Pichle movement ko dekhte hue, main yeh andaza lagata hoon ke price neeche wali limit ki taraf ja rahi hai aur agar yeh breakout hota hai, to iska matlab hoga ke price aage mazeed neeche jane ki koshish kar rahi hai. Jab yeh test ho raha hoga, main dekhunga ke market mein rebound par northern direction mein dakhil hone ka mauqa milega, aur agar chhoti frame mein koi buying ka pattern nazar aaye to us par focus karunga. Magar zyada ter mujhe lagta hai ke regulator ne is haftay dakhal diya hai jab price baghair kisi wazeh wajah ke girna shuru hui, jab buyers ne EMA 120 ke upar price ko secure kiya tha. Is haftay main ghore se dekhunga ke price narrowing formation mein kaise behave karegi aur is movement ke nateejay mein haftay ke akhir tak kaunse priorities saamne aati hain. Abhi tak, direction dono taraf barabar ja sakta hai, lekin ab bhi preference southern side ki taraf hai.

Main dollar yen pair ko weekly chart par dekh raha hoon. Yeh pair ascending trend line ke upar trade kar raha tha. Jab buyer ne apna profit fix karna shuru kiya, to pair ne decline karna shuru kiya. Yeh kafi actively neeche gir raha tha aur phir yeh 141.508 tak gir gaya. Chhoti timeframes, jaise ke daily chart, par mujhe laga ke yeh marking le raha tha jo January 1997 ke baad sabse bara izafa tha aur Japan ke high interest rate environment ki taraf shift ko mazid mazboot bana raha tha.

Amreeka mein, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco ki President Mary Daly ne Monday ke remarks mein zyada confidence ka izhar kiya ke US inflation Fed ke 2% target ki taraf barh rahi hai. Daly ne yeh bhi kaha ke Fed ke mandates ke risks ab zyada balanced ho rahe hain aur future meetings mein rate cuts ka imkaan bhi diya.

**USD/JPY Aham Resistance Levels aur Bearish Trends ka Samna Kar Raha Hai**

Yeh pair 143.00 ke neeche se dovish comments ke baad rally karta hua upar gaya, jo Bank of Japan ke Deputy Governor ne diye. Yeh signal karta hai ke yeh pair descending channel mein consolidate kar raha hai, jo ke bearish trend ko darshata hai. Iske ilawa, 14-day Commodity Channel Index (CCI) abhi bhi 30 se neeche hai, jo ek potential short-term rebound ka ishara hai.

**USD/JPY Price Analysis**

USD/JPY currency pair ka price action ka tajziya aaj ke guftagu ka markazi maqam hai. USD/JPY pair trading week ka khatma 146.69 ke aas-paas correction ke saath kar raha hai, apne upward trend ko continue karte hue. Halankeh moving averages bearish trend ko indicate kar rahe hain, lekin prices 145.01 ke mark ke upar hold ho rahi hain, jo US dollar par intense buyer pressure aur current levels se continued growth ke potential ko signal karta hai. Is waqt, humein ek potential price correction ki ummeed rakhni chahiye, jo 145.01 ke aas-paas support level ko test karegi. Uske baad ka rebound pair ki growth ko 150.01 ke level se upar le ja sakta hai. Lekin, agar pair girti hai aur 145.01 ke level ke neeche break karti hai, to yeh decline continue hone ka indication hoga, jiska target 142.01 ke neeche ho sakta hai. Bulls ne trend line break hone ke baad control regain karne ki koshish ki, lekin unki koshish trend line ko neeche se test karne tak hi mehdood thi, bina kisi significant breakthrough ke.



Dusri taraf, agar bulls trend line ko phir se break karne aur uspe secure position lene mein kamiyab ho jaati hain, to yeh global trend ke restore hone ka signal ho sakta hai. Average prices ki general movement downward hai, aur dynamic filter bhi downtrend mein hai. Pehle, dynamic filter ka control line correction ko support karta tha, lekin ab daily candle patterns suggest karte hain ke sellers dheere dheere momentum gain kar rahe hain. Oscillator windows mein indicators, including dynamic RSI, downward turn karna shuru ho gaye hain, lekin dynamic RSI abhi bhi channel ke upper limit ke neeche cross nahi hui hai. Junior RSI bhi dheere dheere downward shift kar rahi hai, jabke day aur week RSI neeche hain, jo downward trend ke saath aligned hain. Agle downward move mein price kitni neeche gir sakti hai yeh predict karna mushkil hai, lekin nearest target 145.51 hai. Iske baad direction uncertain hai.

**USD/JPY Forum Analysis, Forecast ( )**
Yeh currency pair neechay ki taraf chal raha hai agar hum haal ke events ko madde nazar rakhein. Pichle movement ko dekhte hue, main yeh andaza lagata hoon ke price neeche wali limit ki taraf ja rahi hai aur agar yeh breakout hota hai, to iska matlab hoga ke price aage mazeed neeche jane ki koshish kar rahi hai. Jab yeh test ho raha hoga, main dekhunga ke market mein rebound par northern direction mein dakhil hone ka mauqa milega, aur agar chhoti frame mein koi buying ka pattern nazar aaye to us par focus karunga. Magar zyada ter mujhe lagta hai ke regulator ne is haftay dakhal diya hai jab price baghair kisi wazeh wajah ke girna shuru hui, jab buyers ne EMA 120 ke upar price ko secure kiya tha. Is haftay main ghore se dekhunga ke price narrowing formation mein kaise behave karegi aur is movement ke nateejay mein haftay ke akhir tak kaunse priorities saamne aati hain. Abhi tak, direction dono taraf barabar ja sakta hai, lekin ab bhi preference southern side ki taraf hai.

Main dollar yen pair ko weekly chart par dekh raha hoon. Yeh pair ascending trend line ke upar trade kar raha tha. Jab buyer ne apna profit fix karna shuru kiya, to pair ne decline karna shuru kiya. Yeh kafi actively neeche gir raha tha aur phir yeh 141.508 tak gir gaya. Chhoti timeframes, jaise ke daily chart, par mujhe laga ke yeh marking le raha tha jo January 1997 ke baad sabse bara izafa tha aur Japan ke high interest rate environment ki taraf shift ko mazid mazboot bana raha tha.

Amreeka mein, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco ki President Mary Daly ne Monday ke remarks mein zyada confidence ka izhar kiya ke US inflation Fed ke 2% target ki taraf barh rahi hai. Daly ne yeh bhi kaha ke Fed ke mandates ke risks ab zyada balanced ho rahe hain aur future meetings mein rate cuts ka imkaan bhi diya.

**USD/JPY Aham Resistance Levels aur Bearish Trends ka Samna Kar Raha Hai**

Yeh pair 143.00 ke neeche se dovish comments ke baad rally karta hua upar gaya, jo Bank of Japan ke Deputy Governor ne diye. Yeh signal karta hai ke yeh pair descending channel mein consolidate kar raha hai, jo ke bearish trend ko darshata hai. Iske ilawa, 14-day Commodity Channel Index (CCI) abhi bhi 30 se neeche hai, jo ek potential short-term rebound ka ishara hai.

**USD/JPY Forum Analysis, Forecast (**
Yeh currency pair downward trend ke mutabiq chal raha hai agar hum haali events ko dekhein. Pichli movement ko samne rakhte hue, main yeh andaza lagata hoon ke price neeche wali limit ki taraf ja rahi hai, aur agar yeh breakout hota hai to iska matlab yeh hoga ke price mazeed neeche jaane ki koshish kar rahi hai. Test ke doran, main northern direction mein rebound par market mein dakhil hone ka mauqa dekhoon ga, aur chhoti time frame mein buying ka pattern pehchanne ki koshish karunga agar aisa pattern nazar aaye. Magar zyadah tar mera yeh khayal hai ke regulator ne is haftay dakhal diya hai jab price bina kisi wazeh wajah ke girna shuru hui jab buyers ne EMA 120 ke upar price ko secure kiya tha. Is haftay main dekhoon ga ke price narrowing formation mein kaise behave karti hai, aur week ke akhir tak is movement ke natayej par kaunse priorities saamne aati hain. Filhal direction dono taraf barabar ho sakti hai, lekin preference ab bhi southern side ko hai.

Main weekly chart par dollar yen pair dekh raha hoon. Yeh pair ascending trend line ke upar trade kar raha tha. Jab buyer ne apna profit secure karna shuru kiya, to pair ne decline karna shuru kiya. Yeh kafi actively neeche gir raha tha aur phir yeh 141.508 tak gir gaya. Chhoti time frames, jaise ke daily chart mein, mujhe laga ke yeh buyer's stops ko take out kar raha tha.

**Buyers ka Control Kamzor, Selling Pressure Barh Gaya**

Tuesday ke trading mein buyers apni dominance barqarar rakhne mein nakam rahe. Jab price apne daily open 146.90 ke upar chali gayi, wo sirf 147.22 tak price ko le ja sake. Is area se price ne ulta rukh apnaya aur zyada der tak kamzori ka shikar rahi. Yeh seller pressure ne EMA 12 aur EMA 36 H1 ko downward cross banaya, jo ke negative price flow direction ka ishara hai. Kal ke strong sellers ne sirf EMA 200 H1 tak price nahi le gaye, balki isko bhi tor diya. Lekin, wahan se 145.16 ka pullback dekha gaya jisne price ko upar ki taraf move karwaya, lekin yeh movement zyada door nahi chal payi, EMA 12 H1 ne buyers ka push rok diya aur price dobara gir gayi. USD/JPY market ne aakhir mein lower 145.47 par close kiya.

**Wednesday Trading mein Price Behavior**


Wednesday ke trading mein, USD/JPY market 145.47 par open hui. EMA 200 H1 iske thoda upar tha, jo ke 145.66 par tha. Asian session ke doran, price kaafi der tak consolidation mein rahi, lekin price apne daily open ke neeche hi tha. Jab European session qareeb aaya to price neeche ki taraf move ki, aur yeh movement apne qareebi support 144.82 par ruki. Yeh area ab tak break nahi kiya gaya, lekin H1 trend mein abhi price downtrend mein hai, jahan price EMA 200 H1 ke neeche chal rahi hai. Is waqt EMA 12 aur EMA 36 H1 bhi wahi behavior dikha rahe hain, jahan wo neeche ki taraf stretch kar rahe hain. Filhal, price daily open aur apne qareebi support ke darmiyan hai.

USD/JPY ne notable decline dekhi hai, lekin abhi sell positions lena jaldi hogi. Pichlay haftay price ne descending channel se breakout kia tha, toh abhi jo drop ho rahi hai wo ek corrective pattern ke mutabiq hai. Ek strong support level 144.39 par mojood hai jo further declines ko rokne mein madadgar ho sakta hai, is wajah se long positions lene ka moqa mil sakta hai. Magar, pullback ki gehrai ko dekhte hue, chhoti time frames par confirmation signal ka intezar karna behtareen hoga, jese ke 146.29 par minor resistance ka break hona. Target ke liye, Fibonacci grid ko initial impulse par stretch kar ke dekha jaye toh 161.8% level, jo ke lagbhag 149.59 par hai, ek potential goal ho sakta hai, jo ke recent high se thora upar hai. USD/JPY pair mein achanak girawat dekhne ko mili aur yeh 145.00 ke qareeb aa gaya, jiska sabab Bank of Japan ke Governor Kazuo Ueda ka hawkish guidance tha. Ueda ne is baat ko dobara se zor diya ke BOJ ko is saal mazeed interest rates barhane ki zarurat hai, aur yeh bhi kaha ke central bank deri nahi karega agar economic aur inflationary halaat uss had tak ponchti hain jo unke expectations ke mutabiq hai. In bayanaat ne Japanese yen ko mazboot kiya, jisse USD/JPY pair par selling ka dabao aaya. Likha janay ke waqt, yeh pair 144.80 ke support level ke qareeb tha.
Is ke bawajood ke US dollar mein taqat dekhne ko mili hai, jese ke US Dollar Index (DXY) ke do hafton ke high 102.00 ki taraf barhawa se zahir hai, USD/JPY pair abhi bhi dabao mein hai. US dollar is liye barha ke investors ihtiyati rawayya ikhtiyar kar rahe hain, jese ke jald anay wali US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data ka intezar hai, jo ke juma ke din aayegi. Yeh economic data buhat ahem hai kyun ke Federal Reserve ab mazeed tawajjo labor market ke nuqsan ka khatra manage karne par de raha hai, is aitmaad ke sath ke inflation apne 2% ke target ki taraf barh raha hai.
Economic calendar ke mutabiq… Tokyo ka consumer price index (CPI), fresh food ke ilawa, August mein umeed se zyada barh kar 2.4% tak pohnch gaya, jo Bank of Japan ke hawkish rawayya ko justify karta hai

4-hour chart par, price ek support area ke qareeb hai, jo weekly level 162.83 ke aas paas hai, aur saath hi red channel line ke kareeb bhi hai. Is haftay ke doran, price ne price channels mein trade karna shuru kiya hai, jismein ek channel ascending hai aur doosra descending. Lekin ab tak ke price movement se ye baat samajh aati hai ke price ne ascending channel ka ehtiram kiya hai, jis se is haftay ab tak ek ascending week bana hai.

Is liye, red channel line ek achi support ban sakti hai, jo price ko wapas upar ki taraf le aayegi. Aur sab se behtareen trading opportunity tab milegi jab channel line ke saath ascending price action banegi, aur tab buy karna munasib hoga.

Economic side par dekha jaye to Eurozone ka GDP growth rate confirm ho gaya hai. Jo announce kiya gaya uske mutabiq, Eurozone GDP ne dusre quarter of 2024 mein quarterly basis par 0.3% ka expansion dikhaya, jo ke pehle period ke barabar hai aur initial estimate ke mutabiq bhi hai. Badi economies jismein France (0.3% vs. 0.3% Q1), Italy (0.2% vs. 0.3%), aur Spain (0.8% vs. 0.8%) ne bhi quarter mein expansion dikhaya. Belgium (0.2% vs. 0.3%), Ireland (1.2% vs. 0.7%), Portugal (0.1% vs. 0.8%), Lithuania (0.9% vs. 0.9%), Cyprus (0.7% vs. 1%), Slovakia (0.4% vs. 0.6%) aur Finland (0.4% vs. 0.2%) ne bhi expansion dikhaya. Doosri taraf, Estonia (0.2% vs. -0.4%), Netherlands (1% vs. -0.3%) aur Slovenia (0.2% vs. -0.1%) mein GDP rebound hua. Lekin sab se badi economy, Germany, ne unexpected contraction dikhaya 0.1% ka, kyun ke industrial sector ab bhi high interest rates ke pressure se guzr raha hai. Latvia ki economy mein bhi 1.1% ka contraction aaya aur Austria ka GDP stagnant raha (vs. 0.2%).

Annual basis par, Eurozone GDP ne 0.6% ka expansion dikhaya, jo pichlay paanch quarters mein sab se zyada hai. European Commission expect karti hai ke Eurozone economy is saal 0.8% grow karegi, 2023 mein ek broad recession ke baad.

**USD/JPY Analysis**

Salam! Aap bilkul sahi keh rahe hain ke USD/JPY ne moving averages aur guides ko todna shuru kar diya hai. Kal almost do sau points ka attack hua, aur aaj din ke shuru hone ke baad se ek sau pips se zyada decline dekha gaya hai. Yeh trend laqab se hi unstoppable lag raha hai. Daily chart par wave technique ke zariye indicators ke mutabiq:

- **MA100**: Yeh moving average bullish mood se dheere dheere decline ki taraf tilt ho rahi hai. Pehle yeh growth ke favor mein almost tees degree ka trend angle rakhti thi, lekin ab yeh practically horizontal ho gayi hai, jo decline ka indication hai.

- **MA18**: Yeh moving average almost vertical direction mein decline kar rahi hai, jo dead cross banane ki taraf ishaara hai - yeh sell signal ko indicate karta hai.

- **Ichimoku Cloud**: Is waqt cloud bullish colors mein hai, lekin future mein bearish side pe switch ho raha hai. Yeh indicate karta hai ke aage decline ka rukh ban sakta hai.

**Support Level:**

Pehli calculated support level 151.70 hai. Kal ka morning repeat ho raha hai aur abhi bhi support hai, isliye thoda buying karna shuru kar sakte hain with the expectation ke USD/JPY aur decline karegi aur har decline par add kar sakte hain. Mujhe lagta hai ke southward trend se exit karte waqt upward direction dekhne ko mil sakta hai.

Japanese yen ke strength ka potential hai, jo ke market mein bulls ka control indicate karta hai. Agar agle session mein market bullish potential ko confirm karta hai, toh short positions close karna samajhdari hogi. Yen ka upward trend setup ho sakta hai aur 155.75 ek mark ban sakta hai jahan par new sale ke possibility ko consider kiya ja sakta hai. Strong reversal ke liye impulse milna zaroori hai aur resistance level par rukna nahi chahiye, taake profitable sell trade ki potential ko grab kiya ja sake.