USD/JPY ایکسچینج ریٹ: آج کی قیمت اور مارکیٹ تجزیہ

Fundamental Analysis
USD/JPY ne 5 August ke low ki taraf drop kiya aur phir recover ho gaya. 4-hour chart par ek bara bullish Hammer Japanese candlestick pattern ban raha hai; agar ye pattern current session ke khatam hone tak bana raha, to ye ek significant pullback ya higher correction ki shanakht kar sakta hai.

US 10-year T-note ke yield ke girne se, USD/JPY ne late Friday ko North American session mein ground khoya. Safe-haven currencies jaise Japanese Yen ke ilawa, Greenback ne dusre G8 currencies ke muqable mein thoda ground gain kiya. Is waqt pair trade ho raha hai.


4H chart

Forecast for USD/JPY Price: Technical Aspects

US Nonfarm Payrolls data ke baad USD/JPY mein volatility dekhi gayi, jo din ke doran 230-pip ke range mein thi. Lekin, jab sab kuch settle hua, to sellers ne apni advantage banaye rakhi. Relative Strength Index (RSI), jo strong trend ko measure karta hai, neeche ki taraf shoot kar raha tha, jo is baat ki tasdeeq hai ke momentum hostile ho gaya hai.

142.50 ka psychological level USD/JPY ke liye pehla support area hoga. Agar ye break ho jata hai, to agla target 142.00 hoga, aur aaj ka low 141.77 agla point hoga. In dono levels ke break hone ke baad, decline 5 August ka low 141.69 tak continue kar sakti hai.

Doosri taraf, pehla resistance point 26 August ka daily low 143.44 hoga. Is level ko break karne se important resistance levels reveal honge. Tenkan-Sen 144.49 par open hoga, jabke Senkou Span A 145.00 par open hoga. Kijun-Sen 145.73 par agla level hoga.

USD/JPY US Dollar - Japanese Yen. Hello doston/traders! Jab main pair ke chart ka TMA with Distances se analysis karta hoon, to mujhe ye conclusion milta hai ke filhal kharidari par focus karna behtar hai. TMA channel indicator upward price movement dikhata hai, jo bulls ke bears par faida darshata hai. Zigzag line bhi northward direction mein hai, isliye sirf long positions open karna samajhdaari hai. Auxiliary oscillators Laguerre aur RSI, jo signals filter karne mein madad karte hain, buyer-friendly zone mein hain. Main position ko Fibonacci 61.8% level tak rokne ka plan bana raha hoon, jo ke 152.300 par hai. Nonfarm Payrolls data ke karan pair mein volatility dekhi gayi, jo din ke doran 230-pip ke range mein thi, USD/JPY ki girawat jari rahi. Lekin, jab sab kuch settle hua, to sellers ne apni advantage banaye rakhi. Relative Strength Index (RSI), jo strong trend ko measure karta hai, neeche ki taraf shoot kar raha tha, jo momentum ke hostile hone ki tasdeeq hai.
Fundamental Analysis


USD/JPY ne 5 August ke lows ki taraf girawat ki aur phir recover ho gaya. 4-hour chart par ek bara bullish Hammer Japanese candlestick pattern ban raha hai; agar ye pattern current session ke khatam hone tak bana raha, to ye ek significant pullback ya higher correction ka indication ho sakta hai.

USD/JPY Currency Pair Analysis
Fundamental Overview

US currency aur Japanese yen ke beech ka yeh instrument recent sessions mein kafi volatile raha hai, jiska zyada tar sabab critical economic data releases aur broader market trends hain. Latest US Nonfarm Payrolls report ne notable fluctuations trigger ki, jisme pair 230 pips ke range mein swing kiya. Data ke baad pair gir gaya, lekin sellers ne price action par control banaye rakha. USD/JPY ki girawat ka ek sabab US 10-year Treasury yield ka girna bhi tha, jo USD/JPY par extra downward pressure dal raha tha. Halankeh Greenback ne dusri major currencies ke muqable mein strength dikhayi, Yen ki resilience ne USD ke additional gains ko roka. Yeh ek complex fundamental backdrop create karta hai jahan economic sentiment aur data releases pair ko mukhtalif directions mein push kar rahe hain.



Technical Overview

Technical side par, USD/JPY mixed picture dikhata hai jahan potential bullishness ke signs hain. 4-hour chart par ek significant Hammer candlestick emerging hai, jo signal de sakta hai ek reversal ya notable upward move ka agar pattern session ke close tak intact raha. Triangular Moving Average channel aur Zigzag indicator ke saath, pair upward trend dikhata hai, jo buying opportunities ke signs hain. Laguerre aur RSI oscillators bhi bullish activity ko favor kar rahe hain. RSI indicate karta hai ke market oversold territory ke qareeb hai, jo aksar price rebound ka precursor hota hai. Agar yeh upward momentum barqarar raha, to pair Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level 152.350 tak target kar sakta hai. Lekin, traders ko caution baratni chahiye aur positions enter karne se pehle further confirmation ka intezar karna chahiye. Toh, technical indicators USD/JPY ke liye ek possible bullish run ka hint dete hain, lekin economic reports aur market sentiment ko nazar mein rakhna bhi zaroori hai. Halankeh technical signals buying ko favor karte hain, fundamental drivers pair ke future direction ko shape karne mein important role play karte hain.

USD/JPY ke liye outlook
Assalam Alaikum!
Kal, dollar/yen ki jodi me girawat jari rahi, lekin kharidar ki taraf se girawat ko rokne ki koshish ke aasar pahle hi milne lage hain. Halankeh, dollar musalsal kamzor ho raha hai, lehaza aaj Jonub ki taraf badhna tarjih bana rahega. Ghantawar chart par, ek wazeh mandi ka rujhan hai. Iska matlab yah hai keh pichle din ke muqable me kami yaumiyah lahar kam hai. Jab tak yah rujhan tabdil nahin hota hai, tab tak yah joda mumkena taur par 142.450/142.280 ki mahana support satah ki taraf badhti rahegi.
Halankeh, kal ki taraqqi ke zigzag ke bad aayi girawat ko istehkam ke aaghaz ke taur par dekha ja sakta hai. Halankeh, is tarah ke aham girawat ke sath bottam ki talash karna tqriban namumkin hai. Agar waqayi yah mamla hai to, jam 143.090 se rebound ki ummid kar sakte hain. Haqiqat me, 145.500 par aaj ki muzahmat 143.930 ki bulandi ki taraf badhne ke liye ek ibtedai point ke taur par kam karegi. Agar qimat niche ki taraf 143.090 ki satah ko tod deti hai to, yah shayad hi ulat jayega. Is tarah, Jonubi rujhan us waqt tak jari rahega jab tak keh yah jodi kal ki buland satah 143.930 ko tod nahin deti.
Meri khawahish hai keh aap munafa baksh trading karein!

Sab ko subh bakhair aur guzishta hafta ke liye umeed hai ke aapka waqt mufeed raha hoga! USD/JPY ke sellers apne guzishta nuqsan ko khatam karne mein kaar-aamad ho rahe hain aur pair ko 149.40 ke zone tak dhakel rahe hain. Yeh soorat-e-haal market mein mazboot bearish sentiment ko zahir karti hai, kyun ke sellers ne control wapas hasil kar liya hai aur qeemat ko neeche ki taraf dhakel rahe hain. Is trend ko madde nazar rakhte hue, ek aur sell position kholna jise short target 143.51 par ho, kal ke aane se pehle ek mozu strategy nazar aati hai. Yeh target mojudah descending force se faida uthate hue, ek munasib munafa hasil karne ka mauka deta hai jab ke aam market sentiment ke saath bhi ham ahang rahta hai.
Is ke ilawa, mali indicators, central bank ke faislay, aur beyn-ul-aqwami soorat-e-haal bhi pair ke development par aham asar daal sakte hain. Waqt par maloomat se mutaliq rehne se traders ko apni position mein mozoon tabdiliyan karne aur apni strategy ko nayi maloomat ke tanazur mein mozoon rakhne ka mauka milta hai. Tawaqqo hai ke aane wale dinon mein qeemat ka rujhaan sellers ke haq mein rahega, jo ke nuqsan se niklne ke naye trend ko barhata rahega.

Yeh samajhna ke USD/JPY ke market sentiment ko asalihiyat se navigate karna zaroori hai. Sentiment jaldi badal sakta hai, aur traders ko tayyar rehna chahiye ke wo tabdiliyon ka bar waqt jawab dein. Yeh is cheez ko samajhne ko bhi shamil karta hai ke kisi bhi mumkin reversal ke asar ya bazaar ke wasi' trend mein kisi bhi tabdeeli ko pehchanein jo USD/JPY pair ko mutasir kar sakta hai. Market ki updates aur sentiment ko sahih taur par samajh kar, traders apne aap ko mauqa' par faida uthane ya risk ko mitigate karne ke liye behtar taur par munsalik kar sakte hain.

Ittifaqan, USD/JPY ke sellers ne apne nuqsan ko cover karne mein aham taraqqi hasil ki hai, aur 149.40 zone tak pahunch gaye hain. Ek sell position jiska short target 143.51 ho, mozu hai, lekin economic conditions ke badalte hue halaat ke saath ham ahang rehne ke liye news aur sentiment ko barabar nazar mein rakhna bhi zaroori hai

[QUOTE=NademAli;n13119307]USD/JPY US Dollar - Japanese Yen. Hello doston/traders! Jab main pair ke chart ka TMA with Distances se analysis karta hoon, to mujhe ye conclusion milta hai ke filhal kharidari par focus karna behtar hai. TMA channel indicator upward price movement dikhata hai, jo bulls ke bears par faida darshata hai. Zigzag line bhi northward direction mein hai, isliye sirf long positions open karna samajhdaari hai. Auxiliary oscillators Laguerre aur RSI, jo signals filter karne mein madad karte hain, buyer-friendly zone mein hain. Main position ko Fibonacci 61.8% level tak rokne ka plan bana raha hoon, jo ke 152.300 par hai. Nonfarm Payrolls data ke karan pair mein volatility dekhi gayi, jo din ke doran 230-pip ke range mein thi, USD/JPY ki girawat jari rahi. Lekin, jab sab kuch settle hua, to sellers ne apni advantage banaye rakhi. Relative Strength Index (RSI), jo strong trend ko measure karta hai, neeche ki taraf shoot kar raha tha, jo momentum ke hostile hone ki tasdeeq hai.
Fundamental Analysis


USD/JPY ne 5 August ke lows ki taraf girawat ki aur phir recover ho gaya. 4-hour chart par ek bara bullish Hammer Japanese candlestick pattern ban raha hai; agar ye pattern current session ke khatam hone tak bana raha, to ye ek significant pullback ya highercomplex situation. Various factors influence its performance, with the strength of the U.S. dollar being a critical component. Recently, the U.S. dollar has been relatively strong due to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. However, despite this strength, the bearish trend in USD/JPY indicates the yen might be gaining some ground or that the dollar is facing headwinds.

Economic data from both the U.S. and Japan have shown mixed signals. In the U.S., inflation remains a critical issue, prompting the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish stance by keeping interest rates high. High interest
correction ka indication ho sakta hai.

۔ aham resistance level lagbhag 147.141 par mojood hai, jo ek moti laal line se nishan zadah hai. Is ilaqay ko kai dafa price ne test kiya hai, lekin har dafa jab price isay chhoti hai, to wapas neeche gir jati hai, jo yeh zahir karta hai ke is level par selling pressure bohot zyada hai. Dosri taraf, ek support level 145.148 ke qareeb hai, jo filhal price movement ke liye ek critical point bana hua hai. Yeh support area blue zone se bhi taqatwar bana hua hai, jo demand zone ya potential buying area ko zahir karta hai.
Is waqt price support area ke ooper rehne ki koshish kar raha hai. Agar price is support par qaim rehta hai aur neeche nahi girta, to yeh mumkin hai ke price wapas upar ki taraf move kare aur resistance level 147.141 ko dobara test kare. Lekin agar yeh support level selling pressure ko bardasht na kar saka aur price isay taqatwar torh deta hai, to yeh umeed hai ke price mazeed gir kar aglay support level 144.000 ya is se bhi neeche chala jaye.

Candlestick pattern par nazar daali jaye, to kuch dilchasp signs dekhne ko milte hain. Ab tak, jab se price resistance area mein apni peak par pohncha hai, wahan se kaafi dominant bearish candlesticks bani hain, jo kafi taqatwar selling pressure ko zahir karti hain. Lekin jab price support level 145.148 ke qareeb pohnchi, to kuch neeche girne ki rujhan mein rokawat dekhne ko mili, jo kuch candlesticks ke lambay neeche wicks se zahir hoti hai. Yeh ek aghaaz ho sakta hai ke buyers is area mein wapas ayan ki koshish kar rahe hain, aur price ko mazeed neeche girne se bacha rahe hain.

Agli trading move ke liye do scenarios nazar mein hain. Pehla scenario bullish hai, jismein main yeh umeed karta hoon ke price support level 145.148 ke uper qaim rahega. Agar aisa hota hai aur koi strong bullish candlestick pattern jaise ke bullish engulfing ya pin bar nazar aaye, to yeh ek signal ho sakta hai ke long position enter ki jaye, aur profit target resistance level 147.141 ke qareeb rakha jaye. Dosra scenario bearish hai, agar price support level 145.148 ko significant volume ke sath torhta hai, to yeh is baat ka ishara ho ga ke selling pressure abhi bhi bohot zyada ha

USDJPY currency pair ki price quotes ne is development ko reflect kiya. Pair ne resistance level 161.87 se notable decline kiya, weekend tak 146.39 tak pahunch gaya, jo almost 10 percent sharp drop thi.
Theoretical analysis ne suggest kiya ki fall support level 151.71 ke paas halt ho sakta hai, kuch trading activity ko lead karta hai, lekin yeh rapid descent ke beech mein likely tha. Decline 144.99 ke round figure tak extend ho sakta hai, kuch margin ko further movement ke liye chor kar, lekin iske beyond, direction uncertain hai. Yeh analysis daily chart se related hai.
Pair ki weekly chart par, maine four weeks ke liye downward trend observe kiya hai. Main aim kar raha hoon pair ki movement ko upcoming week ke liye forecast karne, whether selling trend persist karega ya alternative scenario likely hai. Is purpose ke liye, technical analysis ko examine karte hain pair ke week ke liye aur corresponding recommendations. Moving averages sell suggest karte hain, technical indicators active sell suggest karte hain, aur overall output active sell hai. Yeh technical analysis continued downward movement ko coming week mein advocate karta hai.
Ab, significant news ko consider karte hain jo pair ko affect karta hai. Notable news US se likely hai, optimistic forecast ke saath. Initial US unemployment benefit claims ke data Thursday ko likely hai,
USD/JPY sell karne ka plan kar raha hoon sirf tab jab 146.76 ka test hota hai jo ke chart par red line se dikhaya gaya hai, jo ke pair ke rapid decline ko lead karega. Sellers ke liye key target hoga 145.81, jahan mein short positions exit karunga aur foran long positions opposite direction mein open karunga, expecting 20-25 pips ki movement opposite direction mein is level se. USD/JPY par pressure kisi bhi waqt wapas aa sakta hai, khas tor par agar correction pehle aadha din mein unsuccessful hoti hai aur daily high ka test nahi hota. Important: Sell karne se pehle, ensure karein ke MACD indicator zero mark ke niche ho aur usse decline karna shuru ho
USD/JPY pair abhi tak bearish trend mein hai. 9-day exponential moving average (EMA) 21-day EMA ke neeche hai, aur 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) 50 level se neeche hai, jo ke downtrend ko confirm karta hai. Yeh pair qareebi support 141.69 ke paas (jo ke saat mahinay ka low hai) dhoond sakta hai, aur agla support 140.25 par ho sakta hai. Agar upar ki taraf dekha jaye, toh pair ko resistance 9-day EMA ke paas 145.63 par face karna padega, aur phir 21-day EMA par 146.73 par. Agar yeh levels break hotay hain, toh psychological barrier 150.00 tak rasta khul sakta hai, aur agla resistance 154.50 par ho ga. Kal ke 147.00 ke ooper ke brief surge ke bawajood, USD/JPY pair apni momentum ko sustain nahi kar saka jab 20-day EMA ne support trend line se retreat kiya. Technical indicators, jisme RSI aur Stochastic shamil hain, aik potential reversal suggest karte hain, jabke 50- aur 200-day moving averages ke darmiyan death cross longer-term bearish trend ka ishara karta hai

USD/JPY ne notable decline dekhi hai, lekin abhi sell positions lena jaldi hogi. Pichlay haftay price ne descending channel se breakout kia tha, toh abhi jo drop ho rahi hai wo ek corrective pattern ke mutabiq hai. Ek strong support level 144.39 par mojood hai jo further declines ko rokne mein madadgar ho sakta hai, is wajah se long positions lene ka moqa mil sakta hai. Magar, pullback ki gehrai ko dekhte hue, chhoti time frames par confirmation signal ka intezar karna behtareen hoga, jese ke 146.29 par minor resistance ka break hona. Target ke liye, Fibonacci grid ko initial impulse par stretch kar ke dekha jaye toh 161.8% level, jo ke lagbhag 149.59 par hai, ek potential goal ho sakta hai, jo ke recent high se thora upar hai.
USD/JPY pair mein achanak girawat dekhne ko mili aur yeh 145.00 ke qareeb aa gaya, jiska sabab Bank of Japan ke Governor Kazuo Ueda ka hawkish guidance tha. Ueda ne is baat ko dobara se zor diya ke BOJ ko is saal mazeed interest rates barhane ki zarurat hai, aur yeh bhi kaha ke central bank deri nahi karega agar economic aur inflationary halaat uss had tak ponchti hain jo unke expectations ke mutabiq hai. In bayanaat ne Japanese yen ko mazboot kiya, jisse USD/JPY pair par selling ka dabao aaya. Likha janay ke waqt, yeh pair 144.80 ke support level ke qareeb tha.
Is ke bawajood ke US dollar mein taqat dekhne ko mili hai, jese ke US Dollar Index (DXY) ke do hafton ke high 102.00 ki taraf barhawa se zahir hai, USD/JPY pair abhi bhi dabao mein hai. US dollar is liye barha ke investors ihtiyati rawayya ikhtiyar kar rahe hain, jese ke jald anay wali US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data ka intezar hai, jo ke juma ke din aayegi. Yeh economic data buhat ahem hai kyun ke Federal Reserve ab mazeed tawajjo labor market ke nuqsan ka khatra manage karne par de raha hai, is aitmaad ke sath ke inflation apne 2% ke target ki taraf barh raha hai.
Economic calendar ke mutabiq… Tokyo ka consumer price index (CPI), fresh food ke ilawa, August mein umeed se zyada barh kar 2.4% tak pohnch gaya, jo Bank of Japan ke hawkish rawayya ko justify karta hai.

USD/JPY currency pair ke prospects ko technical analysis ke zariye samajhte hain. Hum resistance aur support levels, volumes, aur basement indicators par focus karenge. Chart ko dekhte hain:
Aaj pair achi movement dikhati rahi, lekin target tak nahi pohnchi. Chart ke mutabiq, pair ne support level 141.75 ko test kiya aur ab currently 142.41 par trade kar rahi hai. RSI middle range mein move kar raha hai aur downward direction mein thoda uncertain lag raha hai. AO bhi sell signal de raha hai aur pair pichle din ki trading range ke neeche hai. Yeh signals weak hain lekin decline ka likelihood dikhate hain. Mera estimation hai ke price support level 141.75 ko dobara test karegi.

Technical analysis ke basis par, cautious selling ki recommendation di ja rahi hai current prices se, jiska target 141.80 rakha gaya hai. Yeh target slightly above the support level 141.75 hai, jo ke ek strategic entry point ho sakta hai agar market downward trend follow karti hai. Selling position ko enter karne se pehle yeh zaroori hai ke market ki volatility ko samjha jaye, kyunki market sudden changes ke liye subject ho sakti hai.

Support level 141.75 ke paas price test karne ke baad, agar decline continue hota hai, to aapke selling targets ko achieve kiya ja sakta hai. Lekin, market ki unpredictability ko bhi consider karna zaroori hai. Yeh level ek critical point hai jahan se market ki movement ko closely monitor karna chahiye. Agar price is level se bounce back karti hai ya upward trend show karti hai, to selling position ko re-evaluate karna zaroori hoga.

Risk management bhi important hai; isliye, apne stop-loss aur take-profit levels ko clearly define karna chahiye. Agar market unexpected movement dikhati hai, to aapka stop-loss aapko excessive loss se bachane mein madad karega. Isliye, apne risk ko assess karna aur market ke changes ko timely track karna zaroori hai.

Summary mein, cautious selling ki strategy ko consider kiya ja sakta hai with a target of 141.80, lekin market ke sudden changes ko dekhte hue, careful risk assessment zaroori hai. Trading decisions ko analyze karte waqt market ke indicators aur support levels par nazar rakhna essential hai.

Meri Fibonacci grid setup mein, main pichle din ke high ko 100-144.230 Fibonacci level set karne ke liye use karta hoon. 0-142.851 Fibonacci level low par anchored hai. Iske baad, main current market position ko pichle daily candle ke mutabiq analyze karta hoon. Agar quotes 0-142.851 aur 50-143.541 ke levels ke beech hain, to yeh sellers ke faida darshata hai. Is situation mein, main selling ki sochta hoon towards levels -23.6-142.526 aur -38.2-142.324, jahan par main partial profit le lunga. Bachi hui portion ko main further downward movement ke liye rakhoonga, jo ke Fibonacci level -50-142.161 tak ja sakta hai, jahan par main remaining part of the order close kar dunga.
Agar price din ke low 0-142.851 ke neeche girti hai, to yeh mere liye sell karne ke liye ek signal amplifier ka kaam karega. Agar price 0-142.851 Fibonacci level ke neeche break karti hai, to 50%-143.541 tak wapas aane ka bhi possibility hai. Lekin iske paas aane ka intezaar kiye bina bhi, levels 23.6-142.526 aur 38.2-142.324 se selling feasible hai, kyunki main in levels ko kaafi strong samajhta hoon.

Agar price 0-142.851 ke level ko break kar deti hai aur neeche girti hai, to yeh mere liye ek mazid sell signal hoga. Is situation mein, selling ko consider karna bhi mumkin hai levels 23.6-142.526 aur 38.2-142.324 se, kyunki yeh strong levels hain aur inke beech trading karna market ki current condition ke hisaab se sahi lagta hai. Mere strategy ke mutabiq, price ke girne ke baad, Fibonacci levels ko dekh kar hi trade karni chahiye, aur yeh levels mujhe clear signals provide karte hain ki kab aur kitna sell kiya jaye.

Jaise ke maine pehle bhi bataya tha, mera main reference point senior time frame tha, jahan price behavior ko weekly chart ke hawale se analyze kiya gaya tha. Main aapko yaad dilana chahta hoon ke price action method pehle istemal hui thi, jahan candlestick pattern "Evening Star" ne diagonal support ke break hone ke baad ek tez girawat indicate ki thi, aur uske baad sellers ne kaafi arsay tak market apne control mein rakhi. Total girawat 1720 points thi, aur reference point Fibonacci level 88.2 tha, jo ek significant Moving Average (MA) se coincide kar raha tha. Maine yeh sab screen par draw kiya tha, jahan direction ruk gayi thi, aur price ne kafi upar move kiya. Mera yaqeen hai ke aane wale haftay mein hum 148.53 tak pohonch sakte hain, jo ke kam az kam 200 points ka move hoga. Main suggest karta hoon ke apne trading strategy ke mutabiq is plan ko dobara dekhein. Economic calendar mein Japan aur US dono se kaafi important news aa rahi hain, toh fundamentals bhi price action ko influence karenge USD/JPY currency pair ne upar ki taraf ek strong correction dekhi hai, lekin main filhaal in prices par sell karne mein ehtiyat mehsoos kar raha hoon. Dekhte hain agle hafta kya laata hai, kyun ke humein abhi yeh weekend guzarni hai. Main yeh nahi keh raha ke market mein kuch bhi fixed hai, lekin Middle East mein naye tensions hain, aur agar kuch hota hai, toh Monday ko market khulte hi surprises dekhne ko mil sakte hain. Lekin kisi bhi surat mein, yeh Japanese yen ko mazid strong kar sakta hai. Bearish trend abhi bhi relevant hai, aur agar Monday ko prices 147.90 mark se upar break nahi karti, toh phir market mein sell karne ke liye enter karne ka waqt ho sakta hai. Phir bhi, weekend par is idea ka tajzia karenge, tamam fundamental factors ko madde nazar rakhte hue final faisla karne se pehle Meri analysis ke mutabiq, USD/JPY ke paas abhi bhi upar jane ka chance hai kyun ke candle ne middle Bollinger Band line ko penetrate kiya hai. Lekin ehtiyat se kaam lena zaroori hai, kyun ke candle ab tak MA50 line ko penetrate nahi kar payi hai. Yahan se ek rebound ho sakta hai jo price ko niche le jaye. Yeh bhi ho sakta hai ke yeh scenario play out ho, aur hum price distribution ke agle phase mein dakhil ho jayein jab zyada tar market participants yeh samajhne lagen ke corrective rollback khatam ho gaya hai, aur is point se selling shuru ho jaye. Lekin agar yeh puppeteer trap kaam kar jata hai, toh is scenario ke mutabiq, USD/JPY pair bina kisi rollback ke seedha 159.13 tak ja sakta hai, aur agar aisa hota hai, toh market wahan se kafi gir sakti hai Main predict karta hoon ke USD/JPY abhi bhi rise karega, kyun ke H1 support price 145.88 ab tak break nahi hui hai. Is liye, main recommend karta hoon ke jo log is pair mein trade kar rahe hain, woh sirf buy positions par focus karein. Aap apna take profit target 151.20 par set kar sakte hain aur stop loss 145.45 par rakh sakte .

USD/JPY pair ke price pattern ko observe karte hue, yeh kaafi wazeh hai ke market selling pressure ke neeche ruk gaya hai, lekin trend ab bhi bullish hai. Price iss haftay 96 SMA ke upar se 146.16 se lekar 141.79 tak gir chuka hai. Yeh girawat kaafi stable thi, halan ke haftay ke aaghaz mein market oopar jane wali thi. Even jo candlestick 147.22 tak pohchi thi, woh bhi apni increase ko barqarar rakhne mein kamiyab nahi ho saki. Bearish rally phase ki wajah se candlestick phir se neeche aa gayi, pichle haftay ke low prices ko cross karte hue July ke lowest price ke kareeb pohch gayi hai. Ab market ka focus stochastic indicator 5.3.3 par hai. Agar 4-hour timeframe dekha jaye, to dono signal lines level 20 ke aas paas chal rahi hain, jo is baat ko zahir karta hai ke USD/JPY pair mein sellers ka control is mahine ab bhi dominant hai. Is liye girawat kaafi natural hai, kyun ke buyers ab tak price ko oopar dhakailne ki koshish nahi kar rahe. Is haftay candlestick ki girawat ne pichle mahine ke movement zone se door ho kar trade kiya hai. Jo current price position hai, woh ab 96 SMA indicator ke neeche ruk gayi hai, jo mazid girawat ka signal de rahi hai jo agle haftay mein dekhne ko mil sakti hai. Agar 4-hour time frame mein candlestick pattern ko dekha jaye, to USD/JPY pair ke price condition ko kaafi strong bearish area mein dekha ja sakta hai, aur agar pichle haftay ke market trend ke history ko dekha jaye, to yeh girawat kaafi strong nazar aati hai. Jo candlestick pattern bana hai, uss se yeh samajh aata hai ke price ab tak resistance area 147.00 ko break nahi kar saka, aur phir August mein bearish trend ka silsila jari raha. Price ab neeche ki taraf girne ki potential rakhta hai. Current price movement bhi yehi potential dikhata hai ke agle girawat ka target 140.69 ho sakta hai, jo sellers ka next goal ho sakta hai.

USDJPY currency pair ki price quotes ne is development ko reflect kiya. Pair ne resistance level 161.87 se notable decline kiya, weekend tak 146.39 tak pahunch gaya, jo almost 10 percent sharp drop thi. Theoretical analysis ne suggest kiya ki fall support level 151.71 ke paas halt ho sakta hai, kuch trading activity ko lead karta hai, lekin yeh rapid descent ke beech mein likely tha. Decline 144.99 ke round figure tak extend ho sakta hai, kuch margin ko further movement ke liye chor kar, lekin iske beyond, direction uncertain hai. Yeh analysis daily chart se related hai.
Pair ki weekly chart par, maine four weeks ke liye downward trend observe kiya hai. Main aim kar raha hoon pair ki movement ko upcoming week ke liye forecast karne, whether selling trend persist karega ya alternative scenario likely hai. Is purpose ke liye, technical analysis ko examine karte hain pair ke week ke liye aur corresponding recommendations. Moving averages sell suggest karte hain, technical indicators active sell suggest karte hain, aur overall output active sell hai. Yeh technical analysis continued downward movement ko coming week mein advocate karta hai.
Ab, significant news ko consider karte hain jo pair ko affect karta hai. Notable news US se likely hai, optimistic forecast ke saath. Initial US unemployment benefit claims ke data Thursday ko likely hai,
USD/JPY sell karne ka plan kar raha hoon sirf tab jab 146.76 ka test hota hai jo ke chart par red line se dikhaya gaya hai, jo ke pair ke rapid decline ko lead karega. Sellers ke liye key target hoga 145.81, jahan mein short positions exit karunga aur foran long positions opposite direction mein open karunga, expecting 20-25 pips ki movement opposite direction mein is level se. USD/JPY par pressure kisi bhi waqt wapas aa sakta hai, khas tor par agar correction pehle aadha din mein unsuccessful hoti hai aur daily high ka test nahi hota. Important: Sell karne se pehle, ensure karein ke MACD indicator zero mark ke niche ho aur usse decline karna shuru ho
USD/JPY pair abhi tak bearish trend mein hai. 9-day exponential moving average (EMA) 21-day EMA ke neeche hai, aur 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) 50 level se neeche hai, jo ke downtrend ko confirm karta hai. Yeh pair qareebi support 141.69 ke paas (jo ke saat mahinay ka low hai) dhoond sakta hai, aur agla support 140.25 par ho sakta hai. Agar upar ki taraf dekha jaye, toh pair ko resistance 9-day EMA ke paas 145.63 par face karna padega, aur phir 21-day EMA par 146.73 par. Agar yeh levels break hotay hain, toh psychological barrier 150.00 tak rasta khul sakta hai, aur agla resistance 154.50 par ho ga. Kal ke 147.00 ke ooper ke brief surge ke bawajood, USD/JPY pair apni momentum ko sustain nahi kar saka jab 20-day EMA ne support trend line se retreat kiya. Technical indicators, jisme RSI aur Stochastic shamil hain, aik potential reversal suggest karte hain, jabke 50- aur 200-day moving averages ke darmiyan death cross longer-term bearish trend ka ishara karta hai

Spot price ne US Dollar Index (DXY) ke muqablay mein doosre din bhi girawat dekhi hai, jo zyada tar market ki speculation ke wajah se hai ke BoJ apni monetary policy ko aur tighten kar sakta hai. Iske ilawa, carry trades ki unwinding se yen ko kuch short-term relief mil raha hai. Lekin, yen ka future path abhi bhi uncertain hai kyunki market conditions evolve ho rahi hain.
**BoJ Rate Hike se JPY ko Support Milta Hai, Jabke Kamzor US Data USD/JPY ko Affect Kar Sakte Hai**

Recently, BoJ ne apni policy rate ko 16 saal ke highest level 0.25% par barhadiya hai, jo yen ko kuch support provide kar raha hai. Central bank ki yeh commitment ke agar economic conditions require karengi to rates ko aur bhi increase kiya ja sakta hai, JPY ke prospects ko mazbooti de rahi hai. Market participants ab do additional rate hikes ki ummeed kar rahe hain fiscal year ke end March 2025 tak, aur agla increase December mein hone ki umeed hai. Yeh forward-looking stance USD/JPY pair ki upside potential ko constrain kar sakta hai.

US PMI July mein gir kar 46.8 ke eight-month low par aagaya, jo ke pichle reading 48.5 aur forecasted rise 48.8 se kam hai. Iske ilawa, US Initial Jobless Claims July 26 ko khatam hui week mein 249,000 par pohnch gayi, jo pichle week ke 235,000 se zyada hai aur anticipated rise 236,000 ko bhi surpass karti hai. Yeh indicators US economy ke kuch underlying weaknesses ko reflect karte hain, jo USD/JPY ko impact kar sakte hain.

**USD/JPY: Key Resistance Levels aur Retracement Risks**

Pair ne kuch ground recover kiya hai, aur 142.00 ke qareeb trade kar raha hai, jabke iska low 142.07, jo January 2 ke baad ka weakest level hai, early Asian session on Friday mein dekha gaya. Agar pair 143.00 mark ko break kar leta hai, to agle resistance levels 145.89, jo ke February 1 ka low hai, aur 146.48, jo ke March 11 ka peak hai, par honge. Agar in levels ko bhi break kiya gaya, to USD/JPY pair 147.00 threshold tak pohnch sakta hai.

Lekin, current levels se retracement ka risk bhi hai, key resistance points 148.54, 145, aur 144.50 par hain—jo ke 2024 ke low se high tak ke 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels hain. Traders ko cautious rehna chahiye, kyunki bias selling rallies ki taraf shift ho sakta hai. Intra-day traders bhi US ISM services data par nazar rakhenge for further insights