جی بی پی/یو ایس ڈی: کرنسی کے تبادلے کی تازہ ترین معلومات

GBP/USD

Pichle kuch dinon mein, bulls ne four-hour chart par local maximum ko 1.3339 tak barhaya, uske baad quotes consolidation mein chali gayi, aur chart par kuch uncertainty candles bani, jinmein ek "hanging man" bhi shamil hai jiska bohot lamba lower shadow hai, jo aam tor par reversal ki sambhavnayein darshata hai. Main behti behti bechne ki jaldi nahi karunga, pehli transactions tabhi kholunga jab quotes neela moving average ke neeche wapas aaye, jo filhal 1.3260 ke aas-paas hai. Neeche ke targets 1.30179 aur 1.3081 par hain.

Dusri taraf, agar quotes is waqt ke local maximum ke upar barh jaati hain, to bulls shayad apne upar ki taraf ke movement ko 1.35 ke round level tak jaari rakhein.

Phir sab kuch plan ke mutabiq chala. Neeche ki taraf kisi bhi ajeeb ghatna ke bagair, sirf nazdeek ke support par rollback ke sath, wo barhte rahe, har baar naya maximum banate hue. Neeche se moving averages price ko push kar rahe hain, jo growth mein madadgar hain. Isliye abhi tak neeche ki taraf kuch nahi hai. Weekend movement mein adjustments kar sakta hai. Isliye, maine purchases nahi chhodi, halanke main inhein zyada der tak rakhna chahta tha. Lekin ab yeh samajhna mushkil hai ke maximum ka breakout kaisa hoga. Kya yeh false hoga ya nahi. Agar yeh false hota hai, to main apne purchases ke saath reversal mein aa sakta hoon. Isliye, is waqt ko sambhal kar trade karna chahiye, kyunke price ko faisla karna hai ke kya wo upar jayegi, northern heights ko jeetegi, ya humara ship buyers se alvida kehkar south ki taraf chala jayega.

Nazdeek ka support M15 par 1.3312 ke aas-paas hai, jo breakdown aur 1.3265 tak rollback de sakta hai. Agar 1.3265 ka breakout hota hai, to yeh 1.3140 tak rollback trigger kar sakta hai, jabke 1.3140 ke neeche breakout aur consolidation upward movement ko tod dega. Is waqt, sab kuch upar kharida ja raha hai.

Spot price Jumeraat ke US session mein mustahkam raha, jo ke psychologically aham resistance level 1.3340 ke upar USD ke khilaf bana raha. Yeh price naya saal ka unchaai hasil ki, jo ke kamzor US Dollar ke support se mumkin hua. Yeh upar ki taraf ka hilaav traders ke positive outlook ko darust karta hai jab ke ma'ashi data mein tabdeeliyan aa rahi hain.

US Ma'ashi Data ka Asar:

US Dollar ki haal ki recovery ka sabab July ke liye mazboot monthly Retail Sales data hai, saath hi lower-than-expected weekly Jobless Claims bhi ismein shamil hain. Is positive ma'ashi performance ne recession ke khauf ko kam kiya hai aur Federal Reserve (Fed) se September mein aggressive policy easing ki umeedon ko bhi kam kar diya hai. CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq, 50 basis points ka interest rate cut hone ki sambhavna bohot kam ho gayi hai—51% se gir kar sirf 29.5% reh gayi hai pichle haftay. Jab ke badi rate cuts hone ke chances kum hain, market ab bhi Fed se dovish faislay ki umeed rakhti hai aane wale meeting mein.

UK Retail Sales Data ki Umeed:

Jab traders GBP par nazar rakhte hain, toh tawajjo aane wale UK Retail Sales data ki taraf hai, jo Jumeraat ko release hone wala hai. Analysts ko month-on-month rebound ki umeed hai, July ke liye 0.5% ka izafa projection kiya gaya hai, jo pehle ke 1.2% girawat ke baad hai. Year-over-year growth bhi behtar hone ki umeed hai, jisme 1.4% ka izafa darust kiya gaya hai, jo ke pehle ke 0.2% girawat ko reverse karega. UK data ke ilawa, market participants August ke liye preliminary US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index aur July ke Building Permits par bhi nazar rakhenge, jo North American session mein aayega.

GBP/USD ka Technical Analysis:

Spot price pichle paanch dinon se upar band hua, jo ke pichle saal ke July se sabse unchi daily close hai. Khaaskar, GBP ne pichle saal 1.3340 par peak kiya tha, aur haal ki price action yeh darust karti hai ke 1.3144 level ki taraf upar ki taraf jaane ka potential hai. Jab tak GBP ‘strong support’ level 1.3150 ke upar hai, mazid izafa ka ek credible rasta hai. Traders is hafte 1.3000 psychological mark ko paar karne ke baad critical resistance level 1.3400 par nazar rakh rahe hain, jo bullish traders ke liye ek naya trigger bana.

Halankeh bullish jazbat hain, lekin daily chart par oscillators overbought zone ke kareeb hain, jo yeh darust karta hai ke ek qareeb-al-nazar consolidation ya thodi girawat ka waqt aana chahiye pehle se zyada positions mein izafa karne se pehle. Yeh technical ehtiyaat traders ko hoshiyari se kaam lene aur market conditions ka jaiza lene ki zarurat ko darust karti hai.

Broader Market Context:

Yeh pair USD ke khilaf majbooti akeli nahi ho rahi. Global ma'ashi rujhan aur investor sentiment mein tabdeeliyan currency movements ko shape karne mein aham kirdar ada karti hain. Jab market aane wale data ko samajhne aur Fed aur Bank of England ke potential policy decisions ka jaiza le raha hai, to volatility mein izafa ho sakta hai.

Spot price ne Friday ke US session mein stability dikhayi, aur US Dollar (USD) ke khilaf 1.3340 ke psychologically significant resistance level ke upar barqarar raha. Yeh price ek naya year-to-date high par pohanchi, jo ke kamzor hotay US Dollar ke sabab tha. Traders ka positive outlook is upward trend ko darsha raha hai, jo ke changing economic data ke hawale se hai.

**US Economic Data ka Asar:**

US Dollar ki recent recovery strong monthly Retail Sales data aur weekly Jobless Claims ke unexpected tor par kam hone ke natayej ne ki. Is positive economic performance ne recession ke khauf ko kam kiya hai aur Federal Reserve (Fed) ke September mein aggressive policy easing ki tawaqo ko bhi. CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq, 50 basis points interest rate cut ki probability mein kafi kami aayi hai—jo pehle 51% thi, ab sirf 29.5% hai. Halankeh bade rate cuts ke imkanat kam hain, magar market ab bhi aglay meeting mein Fed se ek dovish faisla ki tawaqo kar raha hai.

**UK Retail Sales Data ka Intezaar:**

Traders GBP par nazar rakhte huay UK Retail Sales data ka intezaar kar rahe hain, jo Friday ko release hone wala hai. Analysts tawaqo kar rahe hain ke mahina dar mahina rebound hoga, aur July ke liye 0.5% ka izafa project kiya gaya hai, jo ke pehle ke 1.2% decline ke muqable mein hai. Saal dar saal growth mein bhi behtri ki umeed hai, aur tawaqo hai ke 1.4% tak izafa hoga, jo pehle ke 0.2% decline ka ulat hoga. UK data ke ilawa, market participants US ka preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index aur Building Permits ko bhi dekhenge jo North American session mein release honge.

**GBP/USD ka Technical Analysis:**

Spot price ne pichle paanch dinon tak higher close kiya, jo ke July pichle saal ke baad se sabse bara daily close tha. GBP ne 1.3340 pe last year peak kiya tha, aur recent price action yeh darsha raha hai ke yeh 1.3144 level tak upar ja sakta hai. Jab tak GBP 1.3150 ke ‘strong support’ level ke upar barqarar hai, mazeed appreciation ka raasta credible lagta hai. Traders ka focus critical resistance level 1.3400 par hai, jab ke is haftay ke 1.3000 psychological mark ke upar breakout bullish traders ke liye ek naya trigger bana.

Halankeh bullish sentiment qaim hai, daily chart ke oscillators overbought zone ke qareeb hain, jo yeh darsha rahe hain ke near-term consolidation ya ek modest pullback ho sakta hai, appreciation ke liye mazeed positions lenay se pehle. Yeh technical caution yeh batata hai ke traders ko market conditions ko dhyaan se dekhna hoga aur hoshiar rehna hoga.

**Wider Market Context:**

GBP/USD pair ka USD ke khilaf strong hona sirf ek isolated case nahi hai. Global economic trends aur investor sentiment ke shifts bhi currency movements ko shape karte hain. Jab market naye data ko digest kar raha hai aur Fed aur Bank of England ke possible policy decisions ko assess kar raha hai, toh volatility barh sakti hai.

Spot price ne Friday ke US session mein stability dekhi, jo psychologically significant resistance level 1.3340 ke upar raha US Dollar (USD) ke muqablay mein. Price ne naye saal ka high record kiya, jo US Dollar ki kamzori ke saath supported hai. Yeh upar ka trend traders ki positive outlook ko darshata hai jab economic data mein tabdeeli aati hai.

**US Economic Data ka Asar:**

US Dollar ki recent recovery mazboot monthly Retail Sales data for July aur kam umeed ke mutabiq weekly Jobless Claims ke nateeje mein hui. Is positive economic performance ne recession ke khauf ko kam kiya aur Federal Reserve (Fed) se aggressive policy easing ki umeedon ko ghataya. CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq, 50 basis points interest rate cut ki sambhavna 51% se gir kar sirf 29.5% ho gayi hai. Jabke bade rate cuts hone ki sambhavna kam hai, market ab bhi Fed ke agle meeting mein dovish decision ki umeed rakhta hai.

**UK Retail Sales Data ka Intezar:**

Jab traders GBP par nazar rakhte hain, to UK Retail Sales data ki release par bhi tawajjo hai, jo Friday ko aayega. Analysts month-on-month rebound ki umeed rakhte hain, jismein July ke liye 0.5% ki barhoti ka andaza hai, jo pehle ke 1.2% ke girawat ke baad hai. Year-over-year growth bhi behtar hone ki umeed hai, jismein 1.4% ki barhoti ki umeed hai, jo pehle ke 0.2% ke girawat ko ulat sakti hai. UK data ke ilawa, market participants US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for August aur July ke Building Permits par bhi nazar rakhenge.

**GBP/USD ka Technical Analysis:**

Spot price pichle paanch din se upar band hui, jo pichle saal ke July ke baad se sabse uncha daily close hai. Khaas taur par, GBP pichle saal 1.3340 par peak hua tha, aur recent price action 1.3144 level tak barhane ka ishara karti hai. Jab tak GBP ‘strong support’ level 1.3150 ke upar hai, aage barhne ki credible raah hai. Traders critical resistance level 1.3400 ko dekh rahe hain, is hafte 1.3000 ke psychological mark ke upar ke sustained breakout ke baad, jo bullish traders ke liye naya trigger bana.


Bearish sentiment ke bawajood, daily chart par oscillators overbought zone ke kareeb hain, jo is baat ka ishara karta hai ke near-term consolidation ya modest pullback zaroori ho sakta hai aage aur positions lene se pehle. Yeh technical ehtiyaat traders ko market conditions ko dhyan se dekhne ki zarurat ka darshata hai.

**Broader Market Context:**

USD ke muqablay mein pair ka mazboot hona akela nahi ho raha. Global economic trends aur investor sentiment mein tabdeeliyan currency movements ko shape karne mein ahm kirdar ada karti hain. Jab market incoming data ko samajhne aur Fed aur Bank of England se potential policy decisions ka jaiza le raha hai, to volatility barh sakti hai.

GBP/USD H1 Analysis
Assalam-o-Alaikum doston, aaj dopahar mein GBP/USD currency pair ka H1 time frame par analysis karne ki koshish karunga. Guzishta chand dino mein GBP/USD H1 time frame par kaafi pressure mein raha hai aur jab market aaj close hogi, toh yeh currency pair ab bhi upar ya neeche trade kar raha hoga. Is ke baraks, is mein izafa ho sakta hai. Jab market mein bari movement hoti hai, toh hum technical analysis ke zariye GBP/USD currency pair mein entry lene ki koshish karenge.

Mein H1 time frame par trend ko samajhne ke liye moving average indicator period 21 aur moving average indicator period 34 ka bhi istimaal karunga. Filhaal price apne moving average indicators ke upar move kar rahi hai, isliye GBP/USD bullish trend mein hai, jahan yeh agle resistance 1.3264 ke price level tak push karne ki salahiyat rakhta hai.

Kal Friday ko GBP/USD market pair par sellers ka zyada control tha, jo ke buyers ke bullish trend ko resistance area 1.3153-1.3150 ke neeche rokne mein kaamyab rahe. Yeh resistance area sellers ne mazbooti se defend kiya, jis se price neeche bearish move karne lagi, halankeh yeh distance ziada bara nahi tha, lekin sellers ka control zyada dikhai diya.

Daily time frame par Moving Average indicator ke zariye dekha jaye, toh price ab bhi Red MA 50 area 1.2954-1.2956 ke upar hai, aur bullish candlesticks dobara dominate kar rahi hain. Lekin, strong seller determination ki wajah se jab market close hogi, toh sellers ke paas bearish move ko continue karne ka moqa ho sakta hai. Unka target hoga ke price ko buyer support area 1.3035-1.3033 ke neeche le jayein, aur agar yeh level break ho gaya, toh Red MA 50 area tak raste khul sakte hain.

Monday ke trading session mein ab bhi bearish trend continue hone ke chances hain, jab tak sellers prices ko apne resistance area ke neeche rakhe hue hain. Bearish seller ka pehla target buyer support area 1.3104-1.3102 hoga, aur agar yeh level validly break ho gaya, toh agla target buyer demand support area 1.3055-1.3053 hog

Igor Anatolyevich, aapko shandaar weekend ki dua! Abhi ghante ke chart par, khareedari ke targets ban chuke hain. Pehla target Fibonacci grid ke 161.8 level par hai, jo ke 1.3172 ke value par hai. Doosra target 261.8 level par hai, jo ke 1.3212 ke value par hai. Teesra target 423.6 level par hai aur yeh bullish structure ko darshata hai. Heiken Ashi candlestick indicator jo market ki balance of power ko dikhata hai, chart par noise ko smooth karta hai aur technical analysis ko aasaan banaata hai, is se trading decisions ki accuracy bhi barh jati hai.

TMA channel indicator (laal, neela, aur peela rang) support aur resistance lines ko twice smoothed moving averages par build karta hai aur instrument ke movement ki current boundaries ko darshata hai, jo market ke sath dynamically change hoti hain.

Hamare guftagu ka mawad GBP/USD currency pair ke pricing behavior ka evaluation hai. U.S. mein, GBP/USD pair abhi bhi mumkin hai kyunki kal Britain ka GDP release hone wala hai. Technically, hum "Descending Triangle" pattern ka retest dekh rahe hain. Is level se bounce hona selling opportunity ka signal ho sakta hai, pehla target EMA200 ho sakta hai jo ab 1.3019 par aa gaya hai. Yeh mumkin hai ke GBP/USD ne downward reversal shuru kar diya hai. Market news ka intezaar kar rahi hai jo shayad pehle se hi mumkin hai, isliye dollar ke against negative response robust nahi ho sakta. Long term mein, pair ka decline zyada mumkin lagta hai. Lekin, aaj Britain ka employment data bilkul unexpected tha.

Pound-dollar pair ke bare mein, H1 chart par, price ne din ke low 1.3049 se teen ghante pehle reversal kiya aur upward movement shuru ki. Yeh bearish Bollinger Bands zone mein 1.3068 par hai, CCI mid line ke neeche hai aur MACD histogram zero ke neeche hai. Jaldi reversal hua, aur pair wapas 1.3024 par chala gaya. Ab, chaliye price action ko sirf Fibonacci grid ka istemal karke dekhein. Dekhein price kis tarah se move kar rahi hai. April 22, 2024 se wave trend ne sub-wave ko break kiya aur saal ki high 1.3044 ko update kiya pehle retracing se second wave par, jo ke 1.2669 se bounce hua—a textbook 50% Fibonacci retracement of the first wave's trend. Abhi third wave chal rahi hai. Aam taur par, 138 aur 161 levels Fibonacci grid par classic correction ke doran aate hain. 138 level abhi tak mumkin nahi hua, aur price usay hit karne ki ummed hai

### GBP/USD Daily Market Analysis

Hello dosto, is dopahar main GBP/USD currency pair ka tajziya karne ki koshish karunga. Is waqt jo pattern ban raha hai wo bearish hai, kyunki price divergence stochastic indicator ke khilaf hai. Main ye jaanchne ki koshish karunga ke kya ye bearish movement sirf ek correction hai ya trend reversal. Main D1 time frame ka istemal karunga, jo ke movement ko samajhne ke liye kaafi reliable hai aur kaafi broad hai.

Aage badhne se pehle, main pehle moving average indicator ka istemal karke trend ko samajhne ki koshish karunga. Moving average indicator period 21 aur moving average indicator period 34 ka dekhte hain D1 time frame par. Trend ki taraf dekhne par, moving average indicator abhi bhi upward hai aur price bhi moving average ke upar hai, jo ye darshata hai ke trend abhi bhi bullish hai. Isliye, jo decline ho raha hai wo sirf ek correction hai.

Jab humein ye pata hai ke trend bullish hai, toh hum GBP/USD currency pair par buy option dhoondhne ki koshish karte hain, jab tak price correction khatam nahi hoti. Humein dekhna hai ke correction ka point kahan khatam hota hai. Is ke liye, hum moving average indicator period 21 ka istemal kar sakte hain. Buy option identify karne ke baad, agla qadam yeh hai ke hum stop losses aur take profit ka point tay karein.

Stop losses rakhne ke liye, hum support area ko istemal kar sakte hain jo ke price level 1.2998 par hai. Iske ilawa, humara target resistance area 1.3339 par ho sakta hai, jahan tak price pahunchne ki umeed hai. Agar aapko mere likhe hue ko samajhne mein mushkil ho rahi hai, toh aap niche diye gaye tasveer ki taraf dekh sakte hain jo is analysis ko aur behtar samjhne mein madad degi.

Yeh GBP/USD currency pair par meri chhoti si analysis hai. Mera maqsad ye hai ke aapko trading ke liye behtar samajh mile aur aap trading decisions lete waqt madad le sakein. Har waqt market ki halat par nazar rakhna zaroori hai, taake aap market ke trend aur fluctuations ko samajh saken. Har waqt risk management par dhyan dena bhi zaroori hai, taake aap apne investments ko protect kar sakein. Umeed hai ke yeh analysis aapko madad karega. Happy trading!

### GBP/USD H4 Analysis

British Pound aur US Dollar ka analysis karte hue, Heikin Ashi candles aur TMA aur RSI indicators ka istemal karte hue, mujhe lagta hai ke is waqt kharidari ke liye acha mauqa ban raha hai. Heikin Ashi candles, jo traditional Japanese candles ke muqablay mein price values ko behad smooth aur average karte hain, trader ko reversal points, corrective pullbacks, aur impulsive price surges ko samajhne mein madad dete hain. Yeh analysis ko kaafi asaan banata hai.

Triangular Moving Average (TMA) linear channel indicator bhi trading mein ek behtareen tool hai. Yeh current support aur resistance lines ko chart par dikhata hai jo Moving Averages par based hoti hain, aur isse asset ki movement ki boundaries ko samajhna asaan ho jata hai. Lastly, RSI oscillator indicator final decision-making ke liye istemal hota hai, jo overbought aur oversold zones ko indicate karta hai.

Yeh trading tools ka selection technical analysis process ko kaafi simplify kar deta hai aur false market entries se bachne mein madad karta hai. Pehli baat, jo chart humne analyze kiya hai, usme candles ka rang neela hai, jo yeh signal de raha hai ke bulls abhi strong hain aur price ko upar ki taraf push kar rahe hain. Yeh kharidari ke liye behtareen mauqa banata hai.

Price quotes ne linear channel ki lower boundary (red dashed line) ko cross kiya, lekin jab yeh minimum extreme point par pohanchi, to wahan se bounce hote hue central channel line (yellow dashed line) ki taraf wapas aayi. Iske ilawa, RSI (14) indicator bhi buy signal ko support karta hai, kyunki iska curve ab upward point kar raha hai aur yeh overbought level se kaafi door hai.

In sab ke madde nazar, yeh conclude kiya ja sakta hai ke upward movement jo abhi chal rahi hai, yeh kharidari ki achi sambhavanayein dikhati hai. Is liye, long position kholne ka faisla kiya ja sakta hai. Take profit ko upper channel boundary (blue dashed line) ke qareeb, jo ke 1.33400 par hai, set kiya ja sakta hai.

Market se hasil kiye gaye munafe ko bachane ke liye, main recommend karta hoon ke position profit mein aane par Trailing Stop orders ka istemal karein aur aur zyada munafa hasil karne ki koshish karein. Is tarah se, aap apne trading strategy ko behtar bana sakte hain aur market ke fluctuations se mehfooz reh sakte hain.

**GBP/USD Pair Ki Halat Aur Bankon Ka Asar**

GBP/USD pair ki bullish potential ab bhi kaafi mazboot hai, kyunki Pound Authentic ne Bank of England (BoE) aur US Federal Reserve (Fed) ke darmiyan economic policy ke farq ka faida uthaya. Ye farq is hafte ke central banks ki meeting ke doran aur bhi wazeh hua.

Fed ne Wednesday ko 50 basis points ka interest rate cut kiya, jisse Fed funds rate ab 4.75%-5.0% ke daira mein aa gaya. Economic Projections ki list, jise Spot Plot kaha jata hai, is saal aur agle saal mein total 100 basis points ki rate cuts ka imkaan darust karti hai.

Iske muqabil, BoE ne Thursday ko apni policy rate ko 5.0% par barqarar rakha. Governor Andrew Bailey ne is waqt khaas taur par kaha ke policymakers ko “jaldi ya zyada rate cuts se parhez karna chahiye.”

In dono central banks ki policy mein asamanta ne GBP/USD pair ko naye 30-month high par le jaya, jo Thursday ko 1.3315 tha. Khareedaar is dauraan khud ko mazboot rakhe hue the, halan ke China ki economic slowdown ke chalte risk sentiment mein kami aayi.

Hafte ke shuruat mein, GBP/USD ne 1.3200 ke aas-paas apni recovery ko barkarar rakha. Traders ne is waqt behtar soch samajh kar, central banks ke faisle se pehle kisi bhi direction mein bets lagane se parhez kiya.

US ke Retail Sales ka data Tuesday ko release hua, jo ke kaafi acha tha. Ye data USD ke liye achi optimism laaye, lekin Fed ke faisle ke baad ye jald hi change ho gaya. Retail Sales mein pichle mahine 0.1% ka izafa hua, jabke July mein isme 1.1% ka ek upward revision dekha gaya.

Is dauran, UK se Friday ko aaye data ne bhi khush khabri di. Office for National Statistics (ONS) ne report kiya ke UK mein Retail Sales August mein 1.0% barh gayi, jabke July mein ye 0.5% tak wapas aayi thi. Ye growth expectation se zyada thi, kyunki market ne sirf 0.4% ki ummeed ki thi.

Is sab ke madde nazar, GBP/USD ka momentum ab bhi kaafi strong hai. Central banks ke policies ka asar aur economic data ke positive results ne is pair ko support diya hai. Traders ko in developments par nazar rakhni chahiye, taake wo apni trading strategies ko behtar bana sakein. Aane wale dino mein market ki direction ko samajhne ke liye ye indicators kaafi maine rakhte hain.

GBP/USD ke liye bullish potential abhi bhi achi halat mein hai, kyun ke Pound ne Bank of Britain (BoE) aur US Central Bank (Fed) ke darmiyan maali policy ke farq ka faida uthaya, jo ke national banks ki meeting ke dauran zahir hua.

Fed ne Wednesday ko 50 basis points ka interest rate cut kiya, jis se Fed funds rate 4.75%-5.0% ke daira mein aa gaya. Economic Projections ki list, jo ke Spot Plot chart kehlati hai, ne is saal aur agle saal mein kul 100 basis points ke rate cuts ka izhar kiya.

Is ke muqabil, BoE ne Thursday ko apne policy rate ko 5.0% par rakha, jab ke Governor Andrew Bailey ne warn kiya ke policymakers ko "bohot jaldi ya zyada na kaatne" ka khayal rakhna chahiye.

Dono national banks ke darmiyan ke is farq ne GBP/USD pair mein zyada udaan di, jo ke Thursday ko 1.3315 par 30-maheene ka naya uncha point bana. Khareedne walay haftay ke aakhir mein bhi in control rahe, jab ke China ke maali slowdown ke hawale se khauf tha.

Haftay ke shuru mein, GBP/USD ne 1.3200 ke aas-paas apne recovery mode ko pakar ke rakha, kyun ke traders ne national banks ke faisle se pehle kisi bhi major bet se door rehne ka faisla kiya.

US Retail Sales ka data Tuesday ko aaya, jo kaafi strong tha aur is ne USD ke liye 'soft landing' ki umeed ko kuch waqt ke liye behtar kiya, lekin ye optimism jaldi khatam ho gaya jab Fed ka faisla aaya. Retail Sales pichle mahine 0.1% barh gayi, jab ke July mein 1.1% ka izafa dekha gaya, ye US Trade Department ke Census Bureau ne bataya.

Is beech, UK ke Office for National Statistics (ONS) ne Friday ko data publish kiya, jis ne dikhaya ke UK mein Retail Sales August mein 1.0% tak barh gayi, jab ke July mein 0.5% ka izafa hua tha. Ye data expected 0.4% growth se behtar raha, jo is baat ki taraf ishara karta hai ke UK ki economy bhi kuch acha kar rahi hai.

Is tarah, GBP/USD ka trend bullish rahne ki umeed hai, lekin market ki halat aur global concerns ko dekhte hue traders ko ehtiyaat baratne ki zarurat hai.

GBP/USD currency pair ka price behavior aaj kaafi acha raha. Shuru mein, humne closest targets jo 1.3236 ke qareeb the, remove kar diye, lekin humne ek naya platform local highs par establish kiya, jo is baat ki taraf ishara karta hai ke mazeed growth ka potential abhi bhi maujood hai. Lekin, ab ek pullback ya decline ka imkaan hai, jo upcoming significant news se pehle ho sakta hai. Aaj ke movement mein Fed aur dollar central hain, aur market direction abhi bhi unpredictable hai, kyun ke exact rate reduction ka pata nahi. Powell ke remarks, of course, is par bari asar daalenge. Iske bawajood, mera nazariya nahi badla — mein abhi bhi bullish move ki taraf dekh raha hoon. Lekin, main ek solid pullback ki umeed kar raha hoon; agar price 1.3131 ke neeche girti hai, tabhi mein kharidne ka sochoon ga. Maujooda uptrend ke madde nazar, signal par trust karna aur trend ke direction mein trade karna hi behtar hai.

Is strategy mein stop-loss shamil hai, lekin ek detailed risk management system nahi diya gaya. Risk har shakhs ke liye mukhtalif ho sakti hai, is liye yeh aapke deposit ke percentage par mabni hoga. Hum H4 time frame ka istemal kar rahe hain doosre chart mein, halanke signal shuru mein H4 se aaya tha. Yeh time frame poori tasveer dikhata hai, jabke H1 itna detail nahi dikhata. Moving average buy signal ke mutabiq, stop-loss 1.31441 par hai (Fibonacci grid ke 0.0% level par), aur target level 100% par 1.32762 hai. Signal ke baad, market ne is level ke neeche dip kiya tha, is liye deeper correction downward dekhna mushkil lagta hai. Yeh sochna dilchasp hoga ke ek trade mein risk-reward ratio 1:2 ya 1:3 ho sakta hai. 1:2 ratio ke liye, 1.31881 par buy karna ideal hoga, jabke 1:3 ke liye target entry 1.31753 hai. Growth foran nahi ho sakti, kyun ke candle analysis ke mutabiq, do technical levels ko dekhna zaroori hai: gray descending channel boundary aur blue ascending channel boundary.
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UK Official Bank Vote aur CPI rate is haftay GBP/USD ke kharidaron ke liye madadgar nahi the. Lekin US FOMC, Federal Rate, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index aur doosre data ne kharidaron ko bohot madad di. Is wajah se, unhone kal 1.3200 zone ko kaamyabi se paar kar liya. Harker ke speech mein Federal Reserve ke interest rate stance par kuch insights mil sakti hain. Pichlay chand maheenon se, Fed inflation ko manage karne aur economic growth ko barqarar rakhne ke dohre challenge ka samna kar raha hai. Halanki inflation mein kami dekhnay ko mili hai, magar yeh ab bhi Fed ke 2% target se zyada hai. Saath hi, economic growth bhi dheemi ho gayi hai, jis se recession ke khadshat barh gaye hain. Fed ka decision-making process in dono objectives ke darmiyan balance qaim rakhna hota hai, aur agar Harker future rate hikes ya cuts ke bare mein koi ishara dete hain, to yeh market sentiment par kafi asar daal sakta hai.

Umeed hai ke GBP/USD market jald ya dair 1.3265 zone ko paar kar le gi. Agar Harker ka tone hawkish hota hai, matlab ke Fed inflation se ladne ke liye interest rates mazeed barhane ka irada rakhta hai, to US dollar mazid mazboot ho sakta hai. Zyada interest rates foreign investment ko attract karti hain kyunke US assets par behter returns miltay hain, jis se dollar ki demand barhti hai. Ek mazboot dollar ka matlab hai ke doosri currencies jaise euro, pound, ya yen ke muqablay mein USD mazid barh sakta hai. Saath hi, ek mazboot dollar se commodities markets jaise ke gold aur oil ke prices par bhi asar parta hai, jo aam tor par dollar ke inverse hoti hain.

Main GBP/USD par buy order ka mashwara doon ga, jisme short target 1.3265 hoga. Agar Harker ka tone dovish hota hai, matlab ke Fed slow economic growth ki wajah se rate pause ya cut karne ka soch raha hai, to US dollar kamzor ho sakta hai.

Khush raho aur aram se raho!

**GBP/USD Market Outlook**

Good Morning sab traders ko!

Jaisay ke hum jaante hain, Great British MPC Official Bank Vote aur CPI rate bohot achay the aur buyers ke liye madadgar sabit hue. Is liye, GBP/USD ka market kal 1.3313 zone ko cross kar gaya. Iske ilawa, pichlay haftay US ma'ashi halat mushkil mein rahi, jiske natije mein bohot se ma'ashi data aur events ne US dollar ko negatively impact kiya. Haftay ki shuruaat se key financial indicators jaisay ke US Consumer Price Index (CPI), Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Monetary Policy decisions, aur FOMC Press Conference ne US dollar ke liye zaroori stability nahi di. Yeh pareshani poore haftay chalti rahi, jo currency ko apni taqat barqarar rakhne mein mushkilat ka samna kar rahi hai.

Respectfully, GBP/USD market ab buyers ke haq mein rahega aur wo shayad jaldi ya baad mein 1.3365 zone ko cross kar lein. US dollar ko affect karne wale sabse aham events mein se ek Consumer Price Index (CPI) data ka release tha. Yeh inflation ka key indicator hai aur investors aur policymakers ke liye nazar rakha jata hai. Is haftay ka CPI data inflationary pressures mein kisi bhi qism ki aham rehahat nahi dikhata, khaaskar core inflation, jo khushk aur energy jaisay volatile categories ko chhod deta hai. Is data ne market participants ko Federal Reserve ke monetary policy ke agay ke rukh ko le kar pareshan kar diya. Aam tor par, zyada inflation ka matlab hota hai ke Federal Reserve shayad monetary policy ko tight karega, jo interest rates barha sakta hai aur currency ko support de sakta hai. Lekin is haftay ka data market ko Federal Reserve ke aglay qadam ke bare mein uncertain chhod gaya, jo US dollar ki kamzori ko aur barhata hai.

Iske ilawa, Federal Reserve ne federal funds rate mein kami ka elan kiya, jo ma'ashi fa'alat ko barhawa dene ke liye tha. Aam tor par, jab interest rates kam hotay hain, to yeh borrowing aur investment ko barhawa dene mein madadgar hota hai kyunki loans zyada affordable ho jate hain. Lekin, is action ka US dollar par ulta asar hua.

Stay blessed aur pur sukoon rahiye!

Comprehensive analysis par mabni trading
GBP/USD
Assalam Alaikum! Jahan tak pound/dollar ke jode ki majmui tasweer ki bat hai, ooper ka rujhan barqarar hai. Mai ab bhi ek mamuli mandi ki islah ki tawaqqo karta hun jiske bad dobara tezi ka daud shuru ho jayega. Bartanqi pound ke 1.3237–1.3221 ilaqe tak girne ka imkan hai, jahan long positions kholna danishmandi hogi. 1.3340 aur us se ooper ki satah ko jodi ki mumkena taraqqi ke hadaf ke taur par dekha ja sakta hai.

4-hour time frame main foreign currency pair ki market movements ko forecast karne ka ek layout banaate hain. Hum abhi jo motion dekh rahe hain usko analyze karte hain aur teen mashhoor technical indicators ka istemal karte hain - Extended Regression Stop and Reverse, RSI, aur MACD, jo humein ek acha trading result hasil karne ka chance verify karte hain. Yaad rahe, market mein entry decide karne ke liye zaroori hai ke sab indicators ek hi signal dein. Profits ko maximize karne ke liye, exit point Fibonacci grid ke correction levels ke mutabiq choose kiya jaye ga. H4 time frame ke chart par, pehli degree regression line (golden dotted line) jo ke current trend ki direction aur situation dikhati hai, north ki taraf slope kar rahi hai, jo ek upward movement ka ishara hai. Non-linear regression channel, jo ke chart par dikh raha hai, ne ek turn bana kar golden line ko cross kiya hai aur ab upward direction mein hai. Yeh channel bottom se upar ki taraf gya hai aur ascending trend LP ki gold line ko nahi balki linear channel (red dotted line) ki resistance line ko cross kar gaya hai. Ab nonlinear regression channel north ki taraf hai, jo buyers ki strength ko confirm karta hai. Price ne blue support line ko cross kiya, lekin minimum price (LOW) par ruk gaya aur phir rise ki taraf chal pada. In sab ko dekhte hue, mein expect karta hoon ke price recovery ho gi aur market price channel line 2 aur LevelSupLine ke upar consolidate karegi, aur phir ek upward movement golden center line LR ke taraf, jo ke 1.33900 par hai aur 61.8% Fibonacci ke saath coincide karti hai.
Expected movement sideways rehne ka imkaan hai. Yeh Monday ka trading plan hai. Sab ko good luck! Price ke north ki taraf jaane ke chances hain, south ki taraf kuch bhi abhi tak nahi hai. Weekend ke duran movement mein kuch adjustments ho sakti hain. Isi wajah se mein apne purchases ko hold nahi kiya, halan ke mein chahta tha zyada dair tak hold karoon. Lekin abhi yeh clear nahi hai ke maximum breakout kaisa ho ga - ya to false ho ga ya nahi. Aur agar false breakout hua, to purchases ke saath reversal ka samna ho sakta hai. Is liye, current moment mein bohot carefully trade karna chahiye, kyun ke price ko decide karna hai ke kya yeh aur upar jaegi aur northern heights ko conquer karegi, ya humara ship buyers se alvida keh kar southern direction mein chal pada ga.