gbp/usd

GBP/USD H1 Analysis
Assalam-o-Alaikum doston, aaj dopahar mein GBP/USD currency pair ka H1 time frame par analysis karne ki koshish karunga. Guzishta chand dino mein GBP/USD H1 time frame par kaafi pressure mein raha hai aur jab market aaj close hogi, toh yeh currency pair ab bhi upar ya neeche trade kar raha hoga. Is ke baraks, is mein izafa ho sakta hai. Jab market mein bari movement hoti hai, toh hum technical analysis ke zariye GBP/USD currency pair mein entry lene ki koshish karenge.

Mein H1 time frame par trend ko samajhne ke liye moving average indicator period 21 aur moving average indicator period 34 ka bhi istimaal karunga. Filhaal price apne moving average indicators ke upar move kar rahi hai, isliye GBP/USD bullish trend mein hai, jahan yeh agle resistance 1.3264 ke price level tak push karne ki salahiyat rakhta hai.

Kal Friday ko GBP/USD market pair par sellers ka zyada control tha, jo ke buyers ke bullish trend ko resistance area 1.3153-1.3150 ke neeche rokne mein kaamyab rahe. Yeh resistance area sellers ne mazbooti se defend kiya, jis se price neeche bearish move karne lagi, halankeh yeh distance ziada bara nahi tha, lekin sellers ka control zyada dikhai diya.

Daily time frame par Moving Average indicator ke zariye dekha jaye, toh price ab bhi Red MA 50 area 1.2954-1.2956 ke upar hai, aur bullish candlesticks dobara dominate kar rahi hain. Lekin, strong seller determination ki wajah se jab market close hogi, toh sellers ke paas bearish move ko continue karne ka moqa ho sakta hai. Unka target hoga ke price ko buyer support area 1.3035-1.3033 ke neeche le jayein, aur agar yeh level break ho gaya, toh Red MA 50 area tak raste khul sakte hain.

Monday ke trading session mein ab bhi bearish trend continue hone ke chances hain, jab tak sellers prices ko apne resistance area ke neeche rakhe hue hain. Bearish seller ka pehla target buyer support area 1.3104-1.3102 hoga, aur agar yeh level validly break ho gaya, toh agla target buyer demand support area 1.3055-1.3053 hoga.

Is analysis kay mutabiq GBP/USD pair mein abhi tak bohot strong buying momentum hai, jaisa ke price daily chart par upper Bollinger Bands ke sath chipki hui hai. Agar pichlay harakat ka tajziya kiya jaye, jo ke chaar blue boxes se zahir ki gayi hain, toh ye dikhayi deta hai ke jab bhi buy breakout candle form hoti hai, toh aglay teen dinon tak price barhti rehti hai. Is data kay madad se yeh andaza lagaya ja sakta hai ke GBP/USD aglay haftay mein bhi apna gain jari rakhega, aur gray-marked resistance zone 1.3400 - 1.3437 tak pahunchne ki umeed hai. Correction ki bhi guzarish hai, lekin filhaal yeh kam chances mein hai, kyun ke naya RBS (Resistance Ban Gaya Support) area establish ho chuka hai. Yeh RBS zone H4 timeframe par yellow 1.3270 line ke qareeb hai, aur jab is area ka retest hua toh bullish pinbar candle bani, jo buyers ki strong interest ko dikhata hai. Magar yeh area pehle test ho chuka hai, is liye traders ko is par khas tawajju deni chahiye. Halankeh short-term mein market overbought condition mein hai, jo ke ek correction ko trigger kar sakta hai, khas tor par aglay hafte mein jab bohot zyada US aur UK se big news expect ki ja rahi hai. Yeh news market mein volatility la sakti hai aur correction ka sabab ban sakti hai.
Trading Plan
Buy Limit:
Traders apna buy limit order 1.3270 ke qareeb laga sakte hain, jahan se bounce ka chance hai. Lekin ehtiyat zaroori hai kyun ke agar seller is zone ko break karte hain toh price mein zyada girawat ho sakti hai jo ke EMA50 dynamic support (blue line) tak ja sakti hai.
Key Resistance Targets:
1.3400 - 1.3437.
Risk:
News events aur overbought condition ki wajah se correction ho sakti hai, is liye khabar aur market ka tajziya karte rehna zaroori hai.

UK Official Bank Vote Aur CPI Rate Se GBP/USD Buyers Ko Madad Nahi Mili

Is hafte UK Official Bank Vote aur CPI rate GBP/USD ke buyers ki madad nahi kar sake. Lekin, US FOMC, Federal Rate, Philly Fed Manufacturing index, aur doosri reports buyers ke liye kaafi helpful sabit hui. Is liye unhone kal 1.3200 zone ko successfully cross kar liya. Harker apne speech mein Federal Reserve ke interest rates ke hawale se qeemti insights provide kar sakte hain. Pichlay chand mahinon mein, Fed ko inflation ko control karne aur economic growth ko barqarar rakhne ke do challenges ka samna karna para. Jab ke inflation mein kami ke asar nazar aaye hain, lekin yeh ab bhi Fed ke 2% ke target se zyada hai. Saath hi, economic growth mein kami hui hai, jo ke recession ke khatrey ko barhata hai. Fed ke decision-making process kaafi nazuk hota hai jisme yeh dono objectives ko balance karna hota hai. Agar Harker future rate hikes ya cuts ke hawale se koi signals dete hain, to yeh market sentiment par bohot asar daal sakta hai.

Umeed hai ke GBP/USD ka market jaldi ya dair se 1.3265 zone ko cross karega. Agar Harker ne hawkish tone apnayi, jo yeh dikhaye ke Fed inflation ka muqabla karne ke liye interest rates mazeed barhane ka irada rakhta hai, to US dollar mazid mazboot ho sakta hai. Zyada interest rates aksar foreign investment ko attract karte hain, kyun ke US assets par better returns milte hain, jo dollar ki demand barhata hai. Ek mazboot dollar ke natije mein doosri currencies, jese ke euro, pound, ya yen ke against USD gir sakti hain. Iske ilawa, ek strong dollar ka asar commodity markets par bhi par sakta hai, khaaskar gold aur oil ki prices par, jo aam tor par dollar ke inversely correlated hoti hain.

Main GBP/USD par buy order ko prefer karta hoon, jiska short target 1.3265 hai. Waise agar Harker ka speech dovish tone mein hota hai, jo ke economic growth ki slowing ki wajah se interest rates ko pause ya cut karne ka ishara de, to US dollar kamzor ho sakta hai.

Stay blessed aur calm rahiye!

Forum ke doston, jo khush hain ke kal trading holiday hai, mein aap sab ka shukriya ada karna chahta hoon jo mere analysis ko visit karte hain. Lagta hai ke bonus ab tak nahi aaya, ho sakta hai ke kisi ne rules ka violation kiya ho aur is wajah se bonus pay nahi ho raha. Is surat mein, sabko asar pohnchta hai jab koi rules violate karta hai. Friday ki trading ke doran GBP/USD currency pair ab tak side way chal raha hai. Is liye, aaj be-waja floating se bachne ke liye behtar yeh hoga ke European market ke khulne ka sabr se intezar kiya jaye. Ek trader ke liye behtareen faisla yeh hai ke sabr se sahi waqt ka intezar karein. Agar hum technical point of view se dekhein, tou GBP/USD currency pair H1 time frame mein ab tak downward trajectory par hai. Kal ke sharp rise ke baad aaj ek significant fall dekhne ko mili hai. Is situation mein, agle move ko anticipate karna aur disciplined stop loss ko maintain karna zaroori hai.
Fundamental point of view se dekha jaye tou USD index ke recent movements mein kuch din ki girawat ke baad ab ek potential increase ka imkaan hai, jo GBP/USD ke opponents ko upar le ja sakta hai. Lekin, yeh bhi note karna zaroori hai ke USD opponent dobara girawat ki taraf ja sakta hai. Aapko fundamental news par nazar rakhni chahiye jo agle kuch din mein release hongi, taake forex calendar ko monitor karte hue aap ek acha forecast bana sakein.

Daily candles H4 time frame par red hain, jo yeh dikhata hai ke bearish trend chal raha hai. Hum clearly dekh sakte hain ke price pichle mahine ke shuru se gir rahi hai. Current decline ke sath price Original Demand area tak pohonch gaya hai, jo is baat ki nishani hai ke wahan solid support hai. Is liye, price wapis upar move kar sakta hai taake supply area tak, jo TOP BB line ke upar hai, pohonch sake.

GBP/USD currency pair ne haal hi mein positive momentum gain kiya hai, khaaskar jab se yeh Wednesday ko 1.3200 level se upar gaya hai. Yeh movement zyada tar risk-on sentiment ki wajah se hai, jo yeh dikhata hai ke investors ab zyada risk lene ke liye tayyar hain aur British pound jese assets mein invest kar rahe hain. Is movement ke peeche ek aham factor US Federal Reserve (Fed) ka interest rates ko kam karne ka imkaan hai. Kai analysts yeh predict kar rahe hain ke Fed rates ko 50 basis points (bps) se reduce kaClick image for larger version

Pichlay kuch dino mein, bulls ne 4-hour chart par local maximum 1.3339 tak update kiya, uske baad quotes consolidation mein chalay gaye, aur chart par kai uncertainty candles bani, jismein ek "hanging man" candle bhi shamil hai, jiski bohot lambi neeche wali shadow hai, jo aam tor par reversal ke imkaanat ko zahir karti hai. Main foran sell karne mein jaldi nahi karunga; pehli trades tabhi open karunga jab quotes neela moving average ke neeche wapas aayenge, jo filhal level 1.3260 ke aas paas hai. Neeche ke targets 1.30179 aur 1.3081 ke levels par nazar mein hain.
Doosri taraf, agar quotes current local maximum se upar jaane mein kamyab hotay hain, toh bulls apni upward movement ko round level 1.35 tak le jaane ki koshish karenge.Phir sab kuch plan ke mutabiq chala. Neeche koi khatarnaak harakat nahi hui, sirf qareebi support tak rollbacks huay, aur maximum ke baad maximum update hotay gaye. Moving averages neeche se price ko support kar rahe hain, jo growth mein madadgar hain. Abhi tak southern direction mein koi indication nahi. Weekend movement mein thodi adjustments laa sakta hai, is liye main apni purchases ko zyada der tak hold karne se bach raha hoon, halaan ke main yeh karna chahta tha. Lekin yeh clear nahi ke maximum ka breakout asal mein hai ya false. Agar yeh false hai, toh reversal ka khatra hai, jo purchases ke against jaa sakta hai.
Is liye current moment ko bohot ehtiyat ke sath trade karna chahiye, kyun ke price ko yeh faisla lena hai ke yeh upar jaayegi aur northern heights ko conquer karegi, ya phir buyers ko alvida keh kar southern direction mein sail kar jaayegi. Qareebi support M15 timeframe par 1.3312 ke aas paas hai, jo breakdown aur 1.3265 tak rollback de sakta hai. Agar 1.3265 ka breakout hota hai, toh rollback 1.3140 tak ja sakta hai, aur agar 1.3140 ka breakout hota hai aur wahan consolidation hoti hai, toh upward movement break ho jaayegi. Filhal har cheez upar ki taraf buy ho rahi hai.

Budh ke din, spot price ne ek aham recovery dekhi, rozana aur hafta ke neeche level se bounce karte hue 1.3105 ke mark ko paar kar liya. Yeh upar ki taraf ka harakat behtar market jazbaat ki wajah se hui, jo Bank of England ke ek official ke bayan ke baad dekhne ko mili. BoE ne yeh tasalli di ke market instability ke bawajood wo interest rates nahi barhaye ga, jisne risk appetite ko barhaya, aur GBP/USD exchange rate ko temporary boost diya. Is rebound ke bawajood, pair abhi bhi 1.3043 par trade kar raha tha jab pehle yeh 1.2998 ke low par pahunch gaya tha. Halaat aur technical indicators yeh suggest karte hain ke pair mein corrective slides limited ho sakti hain, aur har dip ko kharidne ka ek moka samjha ja sakta hai. Improved risk appetite aur Fed ke anticipated interest rate cuts shayad aane wale dinon mein pair ke movements ko mutasir karte rahenge. Traders ko aanewale economic data aur central bank statements par close nazar rakhni chahiye, kyunki yeh GBP/USD exchange rate ke mustaqbil ke rukh ka taayun karenge.
### GBP/USD ke Fundamentals:

Haal hi ke UK economic data ne Pound ko kuch support diya hai. Data ne unexpected unemployment rate mein kami ka izhaar kiya, jo doosre kamzor indicators ko overshade kar gaya. Khaaskar, unemployment-related benefits claim karne walon ki tadaad July mein 135,000 barh gayi. Iske ilawa, wage growth mein aham kami hui, jo 5.7% year-over-year rate se ghat kar teen mahine tak June tak 4.5% tak chali gayi. Jab ke yeh numbers ek mixed picture present karte hain, overall unemployment ki kami ne GBP ke liye ek positive factor banaya hai.

Dusri taraf, US Dollar ko Federal Reserve ke interest rate cuts ke liye market expectations ki wajah se pressure ka samna hai. Yeh jazbaat Tuesday ko aayi softer-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) report ne aur mazid barhaya. Yeh aur market mein overall positive risk tone ne USD bulls ko defensive mode mein rakha hai. Is wajah se, GBP/USD pair ko in halaat se support mila hai, aur agar value mein koi dip aaye, toh investors isay buying opportunity ke tor par dekh sakte hain.

GBP/USD ka bullish potential abhi bhi sambhalne ke layak hai, kyun ke Pound Authentic ne Bank of Britain (BoE) aur US Central Bank (Fed) ke beech ke maali rukh ki tafreeq ka faida uthaya, jo ke national banks ke mahine ki report mein numayan hui.

Fed ne budh ko 50 basis points ka interest rate cut kiya, jis se Fed funds rate 4.75%-5.0% ke beech aa gaya. Economic Projections ki list, jise dot plot bhi kaha jata hai, ne is saal aur agle saal ke liye 100 basis points ke total rate cuts ki soorat-e-haal ka izhar kiya.

Iske muqablay mein, BoE ne Thursday ko apni policy rate ko 5.0% par barqarar rakha, jabke Governor Andrew Bailey ne kaha ke policymakers ko "zara dekh kar chalna chahiye, ke woh zyada tezi se na ghatain."

National banks ke in lopsided decisions ne GBP/USD pair ke uptick ko aur mazid support diya, jis se ye 1.3315 tak pahuncha, jo ke 30 maheenon ka naya high hai. Khareedne walon ne akhir hafte tak control sambhale rakha, halanke risk sentiment mein kami aayi, jabke China ki ma’ashi rukawat ke bare mein naye concerns ne paida kiye.

Hafte ke shuru mein, GBP/USD ne 1.3200 ke ird gird apni recovery mode ko pakre rakha, kyun ke traders ne national banks ke faislon ke agay kisi bhi directional bets lagane se parhez kiya.

Tuesday ko US ke Retail Sales ka data kaafi mazboot raha, jis ne USD ke liye momentarily positivity create ki jab logon ne ‘soft landing’ ki umeed jagai. Magar ye khushi jaldi khatam ho gayi jab Fed ka faisla aaya. Retail Sales mein sirf 0.1% ka izafa hua, jabke pichle mahine mein ye 1.1% tha, ye data US Trade Department ke Census Bureau ne diya.

Dusri taraf, Office for National Statistics (ONS) ne Jumme ko jo data publish kiya, uske mutabiq UK mein Retail Sales August mein 1.0% se barh gayi, jabke July mein ye 0.5% se barh gayi thi. Ye data 0.4% ke expected growth se zyada tha.

Iss sab ke mad-e-nazar, GBP/USD ka rukh bullish hai, lekin traders ko ab bhi careful rehna hoga, kyunki global ma’ashi halat kabhi bhi badal sakti hai.

Forum ke doston, jo khush hain ke kal trading holiday hai, mein aap sab ka shukriya ada karna chahta hoon jo mere analysis ko visit karte hain. Lagta hai ke bonus ab tak nahi aaya, ho sakta hai ke kisi ne rules ka violation kiya ho aur is wajah se bonus pay nahi ho raha. Is surat mein, sabko asar pohnchta hai jab koi rules violate karta hai. Friday ki trading ke doran GBP/USD currency pair ab tak side way chal raha hai. Is liye, aaj be-waja floating se bachne ke liye behtar yeh hoga ke European market ke khulne ka sabr se intezar kiya jaye. Ek trader ke liye behtareen faisla yeh hai ke sabr se sahi waqt ka intezar karein. Agar hum technical point of view se dekhein, tou GBP/USD currency pair H1 time frame mein ab tak downward trajectory par hai. Kal ke sharp rise ke baad aaj ek significant fall dekhne ko mili hai. Is situation mein, agle move ko anticipate karna aur disciplined stop loss ko maintain karna zaroori hai.
Fundamental point of view se dekha jaye tou USD index ke recent movements mein kuch din ki girawat ke baad ab ek potential increase ka imkaan hai, jo GBP/USD ke opponents ko upar le ja sakta hai. Lekin, yeh bhi note karna zaroori hai ke USD opponent dobara girawat ki taraf ja sakta hai. Aapko fundamental news par nazar rakhni chahiye jo agle kuch din mein release hongi, taake forex calendar ko monitor karte hue aap ek acha forecast bana sakein.

Daily candles H4 time frame par red hain, jo yeh dikhata hai ke bearish trend chal raha hai. Hum clearly dekh sakte hain ke price pichle mahine ke shuru se gir rahi hai. Current decline ke sath price Original Demand area tak pohonch gaya hai, jo is baat ki nishani hai ke wahan solid support hai. Is liye, price wapis upar move kar sakta hai taake supply area tak, jo TOP BB line ke upar hai, pohonch sake.

GBP/USD currency pair ne haal hi mein positive momentum gain kiya hai, khaaskar jab se yeh Wednesday ko 1.3200 level se upar gaya hai. Yeh movement zyada tar risk-on sentiment ki wajah se hai, jo yeh dikhata hai ke investors ab zyada risk lene ke liye tayyar hain aur British pound jese assets mein invest kar rahe hain. Is movement ke peeche ek aham factor US Federal Reserve (Fed) ka interest rates ko kam karne ka imkaan hai. Kai analysts yeh predict kar rahe hain ke Fed rates ko 50 basis points (bps) se reduce karega. Agar aisa hota hai, tou US dollar kamzor ho sakta hai, jo GBP/USD pair ko aur upar le ja sakta hai.

UK mein, sab Bank of England (BoE) par nazar rakhe hue hain. Is haftay UK apni CPI inflation data release karne wala hai, jo bohot ahem hai kyun ke yeh economy mein price increase ka pata deta hai. Agar inflation high hota hai, tou BoE interest rates ko barha sakta hai taake inflation ko control kar sake. Higher interest rates aam tor par British pound ko mazid mazboot karti hain. Fed ke rate cuts aur BoE ke rate hikes ke imkaan ke sath, GBP/USD pair ke liye bullish outlook banta hai. Investors UK inflation figures aur BoE ke rate decision ko ghor se monitor kar rahe hai

GBP/USD ka Technical Analysis
Pichlay trading week mein Sterling ne dobara growth dekhi aur apne nukhsanat ka lagbhag aadha hissa recover kar liya. Shuru mein, price 1.3082 ke level ke neeche break hui, aur signal zone mein aagay barhi, lekin ek ahem support milte hi price ne apna upward momentum dobara hasil kar liya. Iske nateeja mein, expected growth hasil nahi hui, lekin target territory ab bhi kaam karne ke qabil rahi. Saath hi, price chart wapas super trendy green zone mein dikhai de raha hai, jo is baat ki nishani hai ke buyers ne market ka control apne haath mein le liya hai.

Aaj ke liye, agar hum 4-hour chart par technical nazar daalain, toh hum dekhte hain ke pair ko 1.3130 ke breakout resistance ke upar temporary support mil raha hai, aur 50-day moving average bhi price ko support kar raha hai. Average moving average dobara neeche move hui hai. Isliye, agle chand ghanton mein uptrend ka imkaan hai, jisme pehla target 1.3180 ka hoga. Yeh growth ko barhane ke liye ek channel khol sakta hai jo ke 1.3210 aur 1.3230 tak jaye ga. Yaad rahe ke agar trading 1.3130 ke neeche aur sirf 1.3100 ke upar rahti hai, toh pair ki downward correction dobara shuru ho sakti hai, jisme targets 1.3065 aur 1.3040 se start honge. Niche chart dekhain:

Iss waqt pair weekly highs se thoda upar trade kar raha hai. Large support areas test ki gayi hain, aur barhti hui tension ke bawajood, unhone apni integrity barqarar rakhi hai, jo yeh zahir karta hai ke upward vector ki ahmiyat hai. Growth ko barqarar rakhne ke liye price ko 1.3082 ke upar mazid taqat hasil karni hogi, jo ke main support area ki sarhad hai. Agar yeh area dobara test hone ke baad rebound hota hai, toh mazeed growth ka imkaan hoga aur price target area jo 1.3427 aur 1.3500 ke darmiyan hai, us tak pohnch sakti hai.

Agar support break hota hai aur price 1.2994 ke pivot level ke neeche girti hai, toh current scenario cancel ho jaye ga.

Bullish potential abhi bhi salvageable shape mein hai GBP/USD pair ke liye, kyunke Pound ne faida uthaya hai monetary policy ke farq ka jo Bank of England (BoE) aur US Federal Reserve (Fed) ke beech hai, jo ke central banks ke 'mother lode week' mein highlight hua.
Fed ne Wednesday ko 50 basis points (bps) interest rate cut ka faisla kiya, jisse Fed funds rate 4.75%-5.0% ke range mein aagaya. Summary of Economic Projections, jo ke 'Dot Plot chart' kehlaata hai, ne is saal aur agle saal ke dauran total 100 bps ke rate cuts ka ishara diya.

Dusri taraf, BoE ne Thursday ko policy rate ko 5.0% par hold karne ka faisla kiya, jabke Governor Andrew Bailey ne kaha ke policymakers ko "bohot jaldi ya zyada cut nahi karna chahiye."

In central banks ke farq ne pair ke upswing ko aur taqat di, jisse ye Thursday ko 1.3315 ka 30-mahina ka naya high touch kar gaya. Buyers ka control ab bhi bana hua tha weekend ke qareeb, halaan ke risk sentiment mein deterioration dekhne ko mila China ki economic slowdown ke concerns ki wajah se.
banks ke farq ne pair ke upswing ko aur taqat di, jisse ye Thursday ko 1.3315 ka 30-mahina ka naya high touch kar gaya. Buyers ka control ab bhi bana hua tha weekend ke qareeb, halaan ke risk sentiment mein deterioration dekhne ko mila China ki economic
Hafta ke shuru mein, GBP/USD generally apni recovery mode ko 1.3200 ke aas paas hold kiya, jabke traders ne central banks ke decisions ke intezaar mein koi directional bets lene se ijtenaab kiya.

Tuesday ka US Retail Sales data strong tha jo ke temporarily USD ke liye sentiment ko lift kar gaya 'soft landing' optimism ki wajah se, lekin ye jaldi hi Fed ke faislay ki wajah se change ho gaya. Retail Sales last month 0.1% badhi thi July ke upwardly revised 1.1% ke surge ke baad, US Commerce Department ke Census Bureau ne kaha.

Isi dauran, Office for National Statistics (ONS) ne Friday ko data publish kiya ke UK mein Retail Sales August mein 1.0% se barhi, jabke July mein 0.5% ka rebound dekha gaya tha. Ye data 0.4% growth ke expected figure ko beat kar gaya.

Spot price Friday ki US session ke dauran stable rahi, aur US Dollar (USD) ke khilaf 1.3340 ke psychologically significant resistance level ke upar bani rahi. Price ne naya year-to-date high touch kiya, jo ke kamzor hotay US Dollar ki wajah se support kiya gaya. Ye upward trend traders ke positive outlook ko reflect karta hai jabke economic data badal raha hai.
**US Economic Data ka Asar:**

US Dollar ki recent recovery ko strong monthly Retail Sales data ne catalyst faraham kiya tha July ke liye, aur weekly Jobless Claims expectations se kam rehne par. Ye positive economic performance ne recession ke fears ko kam kiya aur Federal Reserve (Fed) ke taraf se September mein aggressive policy easing ki expectations ko kamzor kiya. CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq, 50 basis points interest rate cut ki probability significant tor par ghat kar 51% se sirf 29.5% ho gayi pichlay haftay mein. Halaanki bade rate cuts ab kam imkaan hain, magar market ab bhi Fed se dovish decision ki umeed kar rahi hai upcoming meeting mein.

**UK Retail Sales Data ka Intezaar:**

Jab traders GBP ko closely monitor kar rahe hain, unki nazar UK Retail Sales data par hai jo Friday ko release hone wala hai. Analysts month-on-month rebound ki umeed kar rahe hain, jisme 0.5% ka izafa project kiya ja raha hai July ke liye, jabke pehle 1.2% ki decline dekhne ko mili thi. Year-over-year growth bhi improve hone ki umeed hai, jo 1.4% tak barhne ki expectation hai, pehle 0.2% ki decline ke baad. UK data ke ilawa, market participants US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index ke preliminary numbers aur July ke Building Permits par bhi nazar rakhenge jo North American session ke dauran aaye ga.

**GBP/USD ki Technical Analysis:**

Spot price pichle paanch din tak higher close hui, jo ke last year July ke baad se highest daily close hai. Notably, GBP ne pichle saal 1.3340 ko peak kiya tha, aur recent price action ye suggest karta hai ke ab 1.3144 level tak jaane ka imkaan hai. Jab tak GBP ‘strong support’ level 1.3150 ke upar hai, further appreciation ka ek credible rasta hai. Traders ab critical resistance level 1.3400 ko dekh rahe hain, jo ke is haftay ke dauran 1.3000 psychological mark ke breakout ke baad trigger bana bullish traders ke liye.

Halaanki bullish sentiment hai, daily chart par oscillators overbought zone ke qareeb hain, jo yeh dikhata hai ke ek near-term consolidation ya modest pullback ho sakta hai appreciation se pehle. Ye technical caution traders ko yeh wazeh karta hai ke market conditions ko dekhte huye ehtiyaat se kaam len.

**Broader Market Context:**

USD ke khilaf pair ki strengthening akeli nahi ho rahi. Global economic trends aur investor sentiment mein shifts ka bhi asar currency movements par padta hai. Jese jese market aane wale data ko digest kare gi aur Fed aur Bank of England se potential policy decisions ka andaza lagaye gi, volatility mein izafa ho sakta hai.

**GBP/USD ki Technical Analysis:**
Pichlay kaam ke hafta mein, pound ne uptrend ko dobara shuru karne ki koshish ki, magar apna poziiton barqarar nahi rakh paya aur local highs banane ke baad girna shuru ho gaya. Ibtida mein, price 1.3170 ke level se upar gayi lekin wahan aik wazeh rukawat ka samna karna pada, jis se usne apni sab positions kho di aur wapas initial levels ke qareeb 1.3082 ke level par agayi. Natijatan, expected growth hasil nahi ho saki, lekin target territory ab bhi workable rahi. Saath hi, price chart supertrend red zone mein dakhil hona shuru ho gaya, jo yeh dikhata hai ke sellers apni koshish ko rok rahe hain.

Technical moqe par aaj 4-hour chart ko qareebi nazar se dekha jaye, to negative pressure nazar aata hai simple moving averages par, jo ke daily downward price curve ko support kar rahe hain, aur yeh ek bearish technical structure ko chart par indicate karta hai. Is liye, yeh kaafi mumkin hai ke downtrend aaj ke trading session ke dauran dobara shuru ho, aur agla official level 1.3050 ho sakta hai, jisse target 1.3000 tak barhne ka imkaan hai. Overall, jab tak trading 1.3130 ke neeche stable rehti hai, hum overall bearish trend ke liye bullish rahenge. Agar is level ke neeche break ho jata hai, to bearish scenario ruk jaye ga aur pair wapas 1.3170 ki taraf jaye ga. Yeh retest ko trigger karega, aur 1.3200 tak barhne ka imkaan banaye ga.

**Naya Hafta:**

Naye hafta ke liye conditions bilkul waisa hi hain jaise ke Friday subah thein. Din ka balance ab bhi 1.3260 par hai, H1 support 1.3180 par hai, aur H4 support 1.3060 par bana hua hai. Agar pair 1.3380 tak barhta hai, aur agar yeh level break karta hai, to 1.3420 tak barhne ka imkaan hai. Agar Monday ko GBP/USD 1.3260 ke balance ko break karne mein nakam hota hai rollback ke dauran, main rollback ki umeed karta hoon aur phir wahan se targets ki taraf growth ka reversal ho sakta hai. Lekin agar balance 1.3260 ko break kar diya jata hai, to ek reversal south ki taraf hoga aur H1

support 1.3180 par correction ki surat mein decline hoga, jahan se H1 se growth ki taraf reversal ho sakta hai 1.3420 aur 1.3510 tak, magar yeh tab mumkin hai agar H1 support break nahi hota. Agar H1 support break ho jata hai, to correction ki depth barh jayegi aur GBP/USD pair support H4 1.3060 tak wapas ja sakta hai, jahan se main ab bhi growth ki umeed rakhta hoon, lekin agar support H4 break ho jata hai, to growth cancel ho jaye gi aur hum south ki taraf shift ho jayein ge. Jab tak support H4 break nahi hota, 1.3670 ka main growth target relevant rahega.

Mojooda market conditions Friday jese hi hain. Exchange rate 1.3260 par balance hai, H1 chart par support level 1.3180 par hai aur H4 chart par support 1.3060 par hai. Pair mein mazeed barhney ka potential hai, jo 1.3380 tak ja sakta hai aur mumkin hai ke 1.3420 ko bhi break kar le. Agar Monday ko GBP/USD 1.3260 balance ko break karne mein nakam hota hai, to yeh reverse ho kar us level tak wapas aa sakta hai, aur phir wahan se dobara upward trend shuru kar sakta hai apne targets ki taraf. Dosri taraf, agar pair 1.3260 balance ko break kar deta hai, to yeh reverse hoH1 chart par support level 1.3180 par hai aur H4 chart par support 1.3060 par hai. Pair mein mazeed barhney ka potential hai, jo 1.3380 tak ja sakta hai aur mumkin hai ke 1.3420 ko bhi break kar le. Agar Monday ko GBP/USD 1.3260 balance ko break karne mein nakam hota hai, to yeh reverse ho kar us level tak wapas aa sakta hai, aur phir wahan se dobara upward trend shuru kar sakta hai apne targets ki taraf. Dosri taraf, agar pair 1.3260 balance ko break kar deta hai, to yeh reverse ho kar H1 support 1.2180 tak decline kar sakta hai, jo ek corrective move hoga. Us ke baad pair rebound kar ke wapas 1.3420 aur 1.3510 tak barh sakta hai, jab tak H1 support break nahi hota. Agar H1 support break ho jata hai, to correction kar H1 support 1.2180 tak decline kar sakta hai, jo ek corrective move hoga. Us ke baad pair rebound kar ke wapas 1.3420 aur 1.3510 tak barh sakta hai, jab tak H1 support break nahi hota. Agar H1 support break ho jata hai, to correction gehra ho jayega aur GBP/USD pair wapas H4 support 1.3060 tak gir sakta hai, jahan se mazeed growth ki umeed hai. Lekin agar H4 support toot jata hai, to bullish outlook cancel ho jayega aur pair bearish ho sakta hai.
**Doosra Hissa:**


Di gayi text suggest karti hai ke GBP/USD exchange rate ek upward trajectory par hai, aur market buyers ke liye favorable hai. Great British MPC Official Bank Vote aur CPI rate buyers ke liye beneficial raha, jis se GBP/USD 1.3313 zone ko cross kar gaya. Pichla hafta US economy ke liye challenging raha, kyunke mukhtalif economic data aur events ne US dollar ko negatively impact kiya. Key financial indicators, jaise ke US CPI, FOMC Monetary Policy decisions, aur FOMC Press Conference, ne US dollar ke liye stability faraham nahi ki, jis ki wajah se currency ko turbulence ka samna hai aur yeh apni strength barqarar rakhne mein nakam raha. Is wajah se, GBP/USD ka market buyers ke haq mein chalne ki umeed hai, aur jaldi ya der se yeh 1.3365 zone ko cross kar sakta hai. Iske ilawa, US CPI data ka release ek significant event tha jo US dollar ko affect kar raha tha. Sabse noteworthy levels top par 1.3641 aur 1.3747 ke aas paas hain. Yeh levels market mein future actions ka faisla karne mein crucial ho sakte hain. Is haftay GBP/USD pair ka izafa current upward trend ko confirm karta hai, aur 1.3318 par close hone se positive momentum ka continuity dikhata hai. Iske ilawa, 1.3264 ke maximum ko breakout karna bullish movement ki strength ko indicate karta hai.

GBP/USD currency pair ek stabil period ka samna kar raha hai, jo Friday ke Asian session mein aik narrow range mein oscillate kar raha hai. Filhal yeh 1.3318 ke aas-paas hai, jo July 2023 ke baad se iska sabse uncha level hai, jo pichle din 1.3340 ke kareeb tha. Jab traders UK aur US se flash Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data ka intezar kar rahe hain, market short-term trading opportunities ke liye tayyar hai.

GBP/USD ke Fundamentals:

UK se haal ka ma'ashi data ne yeh ummeed barha di hai ke Bank of England apne agle September meeting mein interest rates ko 5.0% par barqarar rakhega. Pichle hafte ke inflation aur employment figures ne current rate ko barqarar rakhne ki wajah ko mazboot kiya hai, jis se analysts jaise Rupert Thompson, chief economist at IBOSS, ne yeh predikshn ki hai ke kisi bhi potential rate cuts ko November tak delay kiya ja sakta hai. In ummeedon ke mad-e-nazar, Pound Sterling ko jald hi neeche ki taraf pressure ka samna karna par sakta hai.

Is hafte ke key events mein Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes ka release aur Fed Chair Jerome Powell ka speech Jackson Hole Symposium mein shamil hai, jo Wednesday aur August 22-24 ko scheduled hai. Investors FOMC minutes aur Powell ki comments ko nazar mein rakhenge taake yeh jaan sakein ke Federal Reserve aggressive ya gradual policy normalization ki taraf ja raha hai, jo US dollar ki trajectory par aham asar daal sakta hai.

Hourly Time Frame Technical Outlook:

Agar 1.3350 level ki taraf aur girawat hoti hai, to yeh traders ke liye buying opportunity faraham kar sakta hai. Yeh level, jo 1.3400 ke psychological barrier ke sath milta hai, ek key pivot point ke tor par kaam karega. Agar GBP/USD pair 1.3400 ke upar decisively break kar leta hai, to yeh technical selling pressure ko trigger kar sakta hai, jo ke potential drop ko agle significant support area 1.3250 ke kareeb le ja sakta hai, jiske baad 1.3200 mark hai.

Agar GBP/USD pair 1.3400 level ko todne mein kamiyab hota hai, to yeh 1.3500 ke aas-paas ke resistance zone ko target kar sakta hai. Lekin agar pair crucial support levels ke upar banay rakhne mein nakam raha, to yeh yeh darshata hai ke prices ne short term mein peak achieve kar li hai, jo ek zyada significant corrective decline ki taraf rukh de sakta hai.

GBP/USD ki Halat:

GBP/USD pair ke liye bullish potential kaafi achi halat mein raha, kyunki Pound ne Bank of England (BoE) aur US Federal Reserve ke darmiyan monetary policy ke farq ka faida uthaya, jo central banks ki meeting ke dauran samne aaya.

Federal Reserve ne Budh ko 50 basis points (bps) ka interest rate cut karne ka faisla kiya, jisse Fed funds rate 4.75%-5.0% ke daira mein aagaya. Economic Projections ki list, jise "Dot Plot" kaha jata hai, ne is saal aur agle saal 100 bps ke rate cuts ka ishara diya.

Dilchasp baat yeh hai ke BoE ne Thursday ko interest rate ko 5.0% par barqarar rakhne ka faisla kiya, jabke Governor Andrew Bailey ne hoshiyari se kaha ke policymakers ko "zyada jaldi ya zyada nahi kaatna chahiye."

In central banks ke beech ka asamanta ne pair ki upswing ko barhawa diya, jo Thursday ko 1.3315 par 30-maheene ka naya high ban gaya. Khareedne wale weekend ki taraf jaate hue control mein rahe, halanke China ki economic slowdown ke chintaon ke bawajood risk sentiment thoda kamzor hua.

Hafte ke shuruat mein, GBP/USD ne 1.3200 ke aas-paas apni recovery mode ko sambhal kar rakha, kyunki traders ne sidelines par rehna pasand kiya, major banks ke faislon se pehle kisi bhi directional wager lagane se bacha.

Mangal ko US Retail Sales ka data aaya, jo kaafi mazboot tha aur 'soft landing' ki umeed ko barhata tha, lekin yeh jaldi hi Fed ke faisle ke saath badal gaya. Retail Sales mein pichle mahine 0.1% ka izafa dekha gaya, jabke July mein yeh 1.1% tak upar gaya tha, yeh US Commerce Department ke Census Bureau ne bataya.

Is beech, Office for National Statistics (ONS) ke taraf se Friday ko jari kiye gaye data ne dikhaya ke UK mein Retail Sales August mein 1.0% ka izafa dekha, jabke July mein yeh 0.5% se recover hua tha. Yeh data 0.4% ke growth ki tawaqqo se zyada tha.