gbp/usd

Pound Sterling Mein Halka Izafa, US Inflation Report Ke Baad Khud Ko Sambhalte Huye
Thursday ki subah, Pound Sterling ne mazeed izafa banaye rakhne mein kamiyaab raha, yeh izafa US ke taaza inflation report ke baad hua. Yeh report ne sarmaaya kaaron ki umeedon ko mazeed barhaya ke US Federal Reserve apne September ke monetary policy meeting mein interest rates mein kami karna shuru kar sakta hai. Filhal, GBP/USD pair 1.3191 par trade kar raha hai, jo ke pehle ke levels se thoda si tabdeeli darshata hai.

GBP/USD Ke Asliyati Bunyadi Haalaat:

Aane wala Federal Reserve ka meeting Wednesday ko honay jaa raha hai jo ke bazaar ki khasa tawajjo ka markaz hoga. Sarmaaya kaar be sabri se intezaar kar rahe hain kisi bhi aisi nishani ka jo yeh bataye ke Fed apne aglay maali meeting mein, jab Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) September mein dobara milay gi, ek anticipated rate cut implement karne ki tayari kar raha hai. Maujooda bazaar ki umeedein yeh zahiar kar rahi hain ke September 18 ko kam az kam ek quarter-point rate cut hone ke imkanaat hain, jahan CME ka FedWatch Tool 25 basis point cut ke 90% chance aur ek baday cut ke 10% chance ko dikhata hai.

Maali bazaar yeh bhi tawaqqo kar raha hai ke Fed is baat ka izhaar kare ga ke mehengayi ko apne 2% target ke qareeb laye jaane mein khasa progress hasil hui hai, saath hi labor market ki badhti hui fikar par bhi tawajjo di jaaye gi. Yeh izhaar Fed ki interest rates kam karne ki taiyyari ka ishara bhi ho sakta hai. Fed ke policy faislay ke ilawa, sarmaaya kaar US ke maeeshi indicators par bhi ghehri nazar rakhenge, jismein JOLTS Job Openings for June, ADP Employment Change, ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), aur Nonfarm Payrolls data for July shamil hain.

Daily Time Frame Technical Outlook:

Wednesday ko pair ne neeche ki taraf test kiya aur 1.3166 ka naya teen din ka low maara. Is ke bawajood, Pound Sterling ke kharidaaron ne mazbooti dikhayi aur pair ko aham 1.3100 mark ke upar rakha. Yeh karan seeza 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) 1.2896 ke upar position mein hai aur ab bhi 200-day EMA 1.2701 ke bullish side par trade kar raha hai.

Iss waqt spot price daily timeframe par Rising Channel chart pattern ke neechey wali had ke qareeb pohanch raha hai. 1.3100 ke significant support level ke neechey ke recent drop ne pair ko pressure mein daal diya hai. Iske ilawa, karan 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke neechey 1.2945 ke qareeb gir gaya hai, jo ke short-term trend mein potential uncertainty ki

GBP/USD Ka Tajziya Aur Trading Ke Liye Raahnamai:**
GBP/USD jori ne Wednesday ko U.S. JOLTs report ke base par upar trading ki. July mein job openings ka number market ke expectations se kaafi kam tha, aur jab July mein unemployment rate bhi barh gaya, toh aur bhi kuch ummeed nahi thi. Market ko phir se weak US data ne disappoint kiya, jo ke market aur experts dono ki expectations se kam tha. Yeh yaad rakhna zaroori hai ke market participants ke liye actual value nahi balki forecast important hota hai. Agar forecast baar-baar zyada high set kiya jata hai, toh wo kabhi bhi meet nahi hota, aur US dollar aur kuch saalon tak girta rah sakta hai. Yeh currency market ki halat hai aaj kal. Haftay ke do din abhi baaki hain aur abhi bhi kai important macroeconomic data release honi hai. GBP/USD jori apne last local high se sirf thoda hi upar gayi hai. Agar baaki reports, jo ke labor, business activity, aur unemployment par hain, bhi weak hoti hain, toh pound is haftay 1.3250 ke level par wapas aa sakta hai.

Wednesday ko 5-minute time frame par do buy signals ban gaye. Price ne 1.3102-1.3107 ke area se do baar rebound kiya aur phir 1.3145-1.3167 ke area tak uthi, jahan se bhi rebound hua. Is tarah se, long positions ne novice traders ko kuch dozen pips ka profit dilaya. 1.3145-1.3167 ke area se rebound bhi kiya ja sakta tha, lekin aaj pair ko phir se rise continue karna chahiye agar US reports forecast se kamzor nikli toh.

**Thursday Ko Trading Karne Ka Tareeqa:**

Hourly time frame par GBP/USD ko global downward trend resume karne ya kam se kam kuch decline ka achha chance hai. British pound abhi bhi overbought hai, dollar undervalued hai, aur market har mauke ko British currency ko buy karne aur dollar ko sell karne ke liye use kar rahi hai. Filhal, pound sirf minor bearish correction dikhata hai, aur full-fledged downtrend ke bare mein baat karna abhi jaldi hai.

Thursday ko, pair ke niche move karne ki umeed hai kyun ke trend line breach ho chuki hai. Kal, price 1.3145-1.3167 ke area se rebound hui thi. Lekin aaj dollar rate bhi US macro data par depend karega.

5-minute timeframe par key levels hain: 1.2605-1.2633, 1.2684-1.2693, 1.2748, 1.2791-1.2798, 1.2848-1.2860, 1.2913, 1.2980-1.2993, 1.3043, 1.3102-1.3107, 1.3145-1.3167, 1.3225, 1.3272, 1.3310. Wednesday ko UK business activity in the construction sector ka secondary report release hoga, jo ke August ke liye second estimate hai. Zyada important reports, jaise ADP aur ISM services sector mein, US mein release hongi. Major movements phir se din ke dusre hisson mein expect kiye ja sakte hain

GBP/USD Ka Tajziya

GBP/USD pair mein Tuesday ko thodi si girawat hui, lekin is girawat ko sirf formal kaha ja sakta hai. Ascending trend line break hui hai, magar abhi tak price ne Senkou Span B line ke neeche apne aap ko mazboot nahi kiya. Agar hum technical analysis se door hat kar dekhein, jo pound sterling ke mazeed girne ki ijazat deta hai, toh aap kaisa downward movement dekhne ki umeed rakhte agar ek naye downward trend ka aghaz hota? Aik mazboot girawat, jahan har din sellers ka dabao ho aur macroeconomic data unka saath de. Magar, filhal aisa kuch nazar nahi aata. Price bohat halka se neeche jata hai aur kisi bhi waqt apni illogical growth dobara shuru kar sakta hai. Is liye, agar price Senkou Span B line ke neeche consolidate kar leta hai toh girawat ka chance barh jata hai, magar ab tak yeh lagta hai ke sirf aik chhoti correction hogi, aur phir pound phir se upar jaane lagega.

Pichlay din ke macroeconomic events mein koi khaas cheez highlight nahi ki ja sakti. US ISM Manufacturing PMI August ke liye 47.2 points tha. Yeh July se zyada hai, magar asal muqabala forecast ke sath hota hai jo 47.5 points tha. Phir se, ek aham indicator ka asal value forecast se kam tha.

Kal kai trading signals bane, lekin pair ne zyada tar waqt erratic aur sideways move kiya. Level 1.3119 ko dono directions mein kai dafa breach kiya gaya. Aakhir kar price is ke neeche settle hui, magar ab Senkou Span B line jo 1.3100 ke level par hai, price ko neeche girne se rok rahi hai. Filhal ek mazboot downward movement ki umeed karna mushkil hai. Hourly time frame mein GBP/USD ab bhi correct kar raha hai, lekin yeh correction kisi bhi waqt khatam ho sakti hai. Medium term mein girawat hi aik consistent aur logical scenario hai, agar hum tamaam factors dekhein: technical, fundamental, aur macroeconomic. Magar market pounds ko buy aur dollars ko sell kar raha hai, baghair kisi correction ya khaas news ke. Dusri taraf, overseas se aane wale economic reports bhi mediocre hain, aur aise halat mein dollar ke liye apni growth ko barqarar rakhna mushkil hoga.

September 4 ke liye aham levels yeh hain: 1.2605-1.2620, 1.2691-1.2701, 1.2796-1.2816, 1.2863, 1.2981-1.2987, 1.3050, 1.3119, 1.3175, 1.3222, 1.3273, 1.3367. Senkou Span B (1.3100) aur Kijun-sen (1.3156) lines bhi signals ka source ban sakti hain. Yeh recommend kiya jata hai ke jab price aapke intended direction mein 20 pips move kare toh Stop Loss ko break even par set kar dena chahiye. Ichimoku indicator lines din ke dauran shift ho sakti hain, is liye trading signals ko determine karte waqt is cheez ka khayal rakhna chahiye.




Wednesday ko UK mein services sector ke liye aik secondary business activity index publish hoga, lekin US ka JOLTs report zyada ahmiyat rakhta hai. Agar July ke job openings forecast se kam hote hain, toh dollar dobara growth dikhane mein nakam ho sakta hai.

GBP/USD Ka Tajziya

Hello! Pound filhal thodi si girawat ka shikar hai, lekin agar hum higher timeframes dekhein, toh yeh abhi tak market reversal nahi lag raha. Akhir kar, Pound ne bohot active tareeqay se bina kisi rollback ke growth ki thi, aur yeh girawat sirf aik deeper correction ho sakti hai. Iss ke baad buyers apni growth dobara shuru kar sakte hain, aur current maximum 1.32647 tak pohanch sakte hain. Magar is ke liye pehle unhe 1.31993 ka level break karna hoga aur us ke ooper consolidate karna hoga. Agar yeh kamiyab hotay hain, toh pehla growth target 1.32263 hoga. Dosri taraf, sellers ko downward movement ko develop karne ke liye 1.31090 ka level break karna hoga aur us ke neeche consolidate karna hoga. Pehla fall target 1.30758 hoga.

GBP/USD H4 Chart:

1- 4-hour chart par Pound lower band ke saath movement form karne ki koshish kar raha hai. Achi signal ke liye hume intezar karna chahiye ke price actively lower band ki taraf aye, aur jab yeh touch kare toh dekhna hoga ke bands outward open hotay hain ya koi reaction nahi hoti. Agar hum current situation ko fractals ke zariye dekhein, toh ek naya fractal neeche ki taraf bana hai. Iska breakout aur consolidation price ko August 22 ke fractal 1.30758 ki taraf le ja sakta hai. Agar price growth ki baat ki jaye, toh nearest fractal upwards ka breakout aur consolidation price ko August 29 ke fractal 1.32263 ki taraf le ja sakta hai.




2- AO (Awesome Oscillator) indicator abhi tak negative zone mein ek increase ko form kar raha hai, aur abhi yeh wazeh nahi ke pehla peak kab form hoga. Yeh is baat ka ishara karta hai ke price fall mazeed barqarar reh sakta hai. Price growth ka quality signal tab milega jab AO zero mark ki taraf attenuation show karega.

British Pound Ka Tajziya aur Trading Tips

1.3171 ka level test hua jab MACD indicator zero line se apni downward movement shuru kar raha tha, jo ke pound ko sell karne ke liye ek sahi entry point ko confirm karta hai, downward correction ke context mein. Iska natija yeh hua ke pair mein 40 points se zyada ki girawat hui. UK ke M4 money supply aur mortgage applications ke data ne pehle hisse mein pound ko thoda support diya, lekin U.S. inflation statistics ke bad dollar ki demand barh gayi, jo ke pound ke significant sell-off ka sabab bana. Aaj, buyers UK ke manufacturing PMI ki report ka intezar kar rahe hain, jo Eurozone ya U.S. se behtar ho sakti hai. Positive numbers pound ko Friday ke kuch losses se recover karne mein madad de sakte hain. Intraday strategy ke liye, main Scenario No. 1 aur Scenario No. 2 ko follow karne par zyada focus karunga.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Aaj main pound ko tab buy karne ka plan kar raha hoon jab price 1.3155 ke qareeb pohanchegi (chart par green line), aur target hoga 1.3182 (thicker green line on the chart). 1.3182 ke qareeb main apni position close karunga aur pound ko opposite direction mein sell karunga, 30-35 points ka movement expect karte hue. Aaj pound mein zyada growth ki umeed nahi hai, lekin positive data ke basis par ek correction ho sakti hai. Important: Buy karne se pehle ensure karein ke MACD indicator zero line ke upar hai aur apni upward movement shuru kar raha hai.

Scenario No. 2: Main aaj pound ko tab bhi buy karne ka plan kar raha hoon agar price 1.3127 ka do dafa test kare jab MACD indicator oversold area mein ho. Yeh pair ke downward potential ko limit karega aur market ko upward reverse karega. Growth expect karein levels 1.3155 aur 1.3182 tak.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: Aaj main pound ko tab sell karne ka plan kar raha hoon jab price 1.3127 ka update karegi (chart par red line), jo pair mein rapid decline ka sabab banegi. Sellers ke liye key target 1.3093 ka level hoga. Is level par main apni position close karunga aur opposite direction mein buy karunga, 20-25 points ka movement expect karte hue. Pound ko sell tab bhi kiya ja sakta hai jab buyers 1.3155 se upar wapas anay mein nakam ho jayein aur manufacturing statistics weak aayein. Important: Sell karne se pehle ensure karein ke MACD indicator zero line ke neeche hai aur apni downward movement shuru kar raha hai.




Scenario No. 2: Main pound ko tab bhi sell karne ka plan kar raha hoon agar price 1.3155 ka do dafa test kare jab MACD indicator overbought area mein ho. Yeh pair ke upward potential ko limit karega aur market ko downward reverse karega. Decline expect karein levels 1.3127 aur 1.3093 tak.

GBP/USD Ka Technical Analysis

British Pound pichle kaam ke hafte growth continue karne ki koshish ki lekin woh resist nahi kar paaya aur local highs tak pohanchne ke baad girne laga. Price ne 1.3292 ke level tak pohanchne se pehle ek clear obstacle ka samna kiya, jo ke usay kuch pehli positions kho kar haftay ke opening price ke neeche girne par majboor kar diya. Is wajah se expected growth complete nahi hui, magar target area ab bhi active hai. Saath hi, price chart supertrend ke red zone mein move karna shuru kar raha hai, jo ke sellers ke pressure ko indicate karta hai.

Aaj ke technical perspective se, 4-hour chart ko dekhein to simple moving average jo daily downward price curve ko support kar raha hai, negative pressure ka samna kar raha hai, jo ke bearish technical structure ko darshata hai. Isliye, agar hum 1.3120 ke support level ko clear aur strong break dekhte hain to downtrend ka resume hona mumkin hai, jo 1.3080 aur 1.3050 tak reach karne mein madad karega. Overall, jab tak trade 1.3170 ke level ke neeche stable rehti hai, hum bearish trend ke liye bullish hain. Is level ke upar break hone se bearish scenario khatam ho jayega aur pair ko 1.3205 pe retest kiya jayega, aur rally ka 1.3240 tak extend hona mumkin hai. Neeche chart dekhein:



Pair filhaal haftay ke low ke thoda neeche trade kar rahi hai. Main support areas ab tak test nahi hue hain aur apni integrity barqarar rakhe hue hain, jo ke upward vector ko relevant banata hai. Movement continue karne ke liye, price ko jaldi 1.3082 ke level ke upar consolidate karna zaroori hai, jahan main support area border kar raha hai. Is area ke upar rebound karne se ek sustainable move ka mauka milega, jo 1.3427 aur 1.3500 ke beech target area tak le jaayega.

Agar support break hota hai aur price reversal level 1.2994 ko break karti hai, to current scenario cancel ho jayega.

Pichle din, Monday ko, GBP/USD pair ne bohat kam volatility ke sath trade ki aur ab tak woh ascending trendline ko break nahi kar saka. British currency ne ghirne se inkaar kiya hai, halanke kaafi arse se yeh upar ja rahi hai aur kaafi taqat ke sath, jo ke aam samajh ke khilaf hai. Monday ko koi macroeconomic ya bunyadi events nahi hue, is liye traders ke paas din bhar react karne ke liye kuch nahi tha. Hum is British currency mein mazeed girawat ki tawako karte hain, magar dollar ka future is hafte ke U.S. labor market aur berozgaari ke data par kaafi had tak depend karega. Doosri reports bhi dollar ke upar jaane ko support ya resistance de sakti hain. Har mahine ka pehla hafte dollar ke liye sabse ahem hota hai. Agar trendline ke neeche consolidation ho jata hai, to U.S. currency ke mazeed taqatwar hone ke chances kaafi barh jayenge. Monday ko 5-minute time frame mein teen trading signals banay. Teeno cases mein, price 1.3145 level se bounce hui. Kisi bhi case mein price 20 pips se zyada nahi giri. Teeno signals repetitive the, is liye sirf ek short position open ki ja sakti thi. Aur yeh nuqsaan ka sabab nahi banta kyun ke price din bhar 1.3145 level ke upar consolidate nahi ho saki.
Tuesday ko kaise trade karein:
Hourly time frame mein, GBP/USD ke paas global downward trend ko dobara start karne ka acha chance hai, magar is waqt ek strong local uptrend chal raha hai, kyun ke price mushkil se trendline tak pohnchi hai. British pound ab bhi overbought hai, dollar undervalued hai, aur market har moka istemal kar rahi hai British currency ko kharidne aur dollar ko bechne ka. Ab tak pound sirf thoda bearish correction dikha raha hai, aur abhi poori downtrend ki baat karna jaldi hogi.

Tuesday ko pair shayad downward move kare, magar ab trendline support ka kaam kar rahi hai. Rebound mumkin hai, jab ke breakthrough baad mein ho sakta hai. Pound ka correction dheere aur kamzor ho sakta hai.

5M timeframe mein dekhne ke liye key levels hain: 1.2605-1.2633, 1.2684-1.2693, 1.2748, 1.2791-1.2798, 1.2848-1.2860, 1.2913, 1.2980-1.2993, 1.3043, 1.3102-1.3107, 1.3145-1.3167, 1.3225, 1.3272, 1.3310. Tuesday ko UK mein koi bara event schedule nahi hai, magar U.S. mein August ka ahem ISM manufacturing activity index release hoga. Is liye din ke doosre hisse mein volatility mein thoda izafa ho sakta hai.

Collapse Love12
Senior Member

GBP/USD pair mujhe badhati hui drawdown mein le ja rahi hai. Dekhna hoga ke bulls kab tak control mein reh sakte hain, khaas kar FOMC minutes ke aanay se pehle jo ke aakhri meeting ke hain.
Kal ki upward movement ke baad, GBP/USD pair ne 4-hour chart par aik naya local high hasil kiya, jo ke 1.3050 par peak kiya. Yeh abhi bhi 1.30 ke significant round number ke upar trade kar raha hai, jis ne bullish sentiment ko mazboot kiya hai. Is key level ke breach hone par bohot se traders apni positions aur priorities ko dobara se evaluate karte hain.
Lekin recent wave ke peak par, 4-hour chart par kuch indecisive candles nazar aa rahi hain, aur indicators ek possible reversal ka ishara de rahe hain. Abhi ke liye sab se zyada mumkin scenario yeh lagta hai ke price 1.2947 ke support level ki taraf pullback kare. Humein dekhna hoga ke yeh level ke aas paas price kaise behave karti hai. Agar bears price ko 1.2947 ke neeche dhakel dete hain, jo ke 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level ke saath align karta hai, toh hum ek lambi downward movement dekh sakte hain jo ke trading range ke lower boundary ya 1.2831 ke support level ko target karegi. Yeh ek significant bearish trend ki taraf le ja sakta hai.
Dosri taraf, agar GBP/USD 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level ke upar apni position ko barqarar rakhta hai, toh hum mazeed upward movement dekh sakte hain aur recent local high ka dobara test ho sakta hai. Mojooda surat-e-haal yeh suggest karti hai ke traders ko hoshiyar rehna chahiye aur in key levels ke aas paas ki price action ke mutabiq apni strategies ko adjust karna chahiye.
Summary:
- Current Price Action: GBP/USD ne haal hi mein 1.3050 ka local high maara hai aur 1.30 ke upar trade kar raha hai, jo ke bullish outlook ko mazboot karta hai.
- Technical Indicators: 4-hour chart recent move ke top par indecision dikha raha hai, aur indicators ek potential reversal ka ishara de rahe hain.
- Support Level: Dekhna hai ke pullback 1.2947 ke support level par hota hai ya nahi. Agar yeh level break hota hai, toh ek gehri girawat ho sakti hai, jo shayad 1.2831 ko target kare.
- Resistance Level: Agar price 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level ke upar rehti hai, toh mazeed upward movement aur naye highs ki tawaqo ki ja sakti hai.
GBP/USD ne thoda girawat dekhi aur 1.3097 ke aas-paas aa gaya. Yeh decline US Dollar ki relative weakness ki wajah se ho sakta hai, jo Federal Reserve ke September meeting mein interest rates ko kam karne ke expectations ke wajah se downward pressure ka samna kar raha hai. Conversely, agar sellers GBP/USD pair ko 1.3100 level ke neeche le aaye, to pair 1.3050 mark ke aas-paas range-bound reh sakti hai. Agar yeh support level breach hota hai, to 100-day moving average (DMA) 1.3135 ko expose kiya ja

l bank decisions and economic indicators. Bank of England (BoE) ke recent policy adjustments ke baad, GBP/USD ek 'hammer' candlestick pattern banata nazar aa raha hai, jo ke 2.21% ki kami ke baad aaya. Yeh technical formation potential upward momentum ko signal kar sakti hai, jisse price 1.3120 level ke upar chadh sakti hai aur 1.3100 mark ko dobara dekh sakti hai. BoE ke borrowing costs ko kam karne ke bawajood, unki policy restrictive hi rahi hai, largely inflation expectations ke 2.25% tak barhane ki wajah se.
Current market dynamics central bank policies aur economic data ke beech ek tug-of-war ko reflect karte hain. Jaise BoE aur Fed apne respective policy paths ko navigate kar rahe hain, GBP/USD traders ko inflation trends aur interest rate adjustments ke further clues ke liye alert rehna chahiye. In developments ke results future market movements aur trading strategies ko impact karenge.
Central Bank Moves: Powell Hints at Rate Cut, Bailey Defends Policy
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell ne rate cut ke potential ke bare mein hint diya hai agar inflation expectations ke sath align hoti hai, economic growth robust rehta hai, aur labor market apne current trend par rehta hai. Reuters ne Powell ke comments report kiye hain, jo suggest karte hain ke aisa move Fed ke September meeting ke doran consider kiya ja sakta hai. Iske bawajood, US Dollar ne policy-inspired sell-off ke baad rebound kiya. Lekin, yeh apne gains ko maintain karne mein struggle kar raha hai, ek weaker-than-expected ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) report ke wajah se. US Dollar Index (DXY), jo Greenback ko chay bade currencies ke khilaf naapta hai, ab tak 101.89 par aa gaya hai jo intraday low 100.48 se upar hai.
BoE Governor Andrew Bailey ne recently Bank ki decision ko defend kiya hai jo policy rate ko 5% par kam kiya gaya. Bailey ne media inquiries ko address karte hue bataya ke minimum wage ka barhna unke perspective se detrimental nahi hai. Unhone point out kiya ke firms aksar argue karti hain ke higher minimum wages pay scales ko compress karti hain, lekin overall inflation trajectory, including potential risks, ab 2% target ke nazdeek hai jo ke pehle ke forecasts ke muqablay mein.
GBP/USD Fluctuates: Asian Session Decline and Key Support Levels in Focus
Asian session ke doran Wednesday ko, GBP/USD ne thoda girawat dekhi aur 1.3097 ke aas-paas aa gaya. Yeh decline US Dollar ki relative weakness ki wajah se ho sakta hai, jo Federal Reserve ke September meeting mein interest rates ko kam karne ke expectations ke wajah se downward pressure ka samna kar raha hai. Conversely, agar sellers GBP/USD pair ko 1.3100 level ke neeche le aaye, to pair 1.3050 mark ke aas-paas range-bound reh sakti hai. Agar yeh support level breach hota hai, to 100-day moving average (DMA) 1.3135 ko expose kiya ja sakta hai

GBP/USD
Assalam Alaikum! Market ki suratehal kafi ghair yaqini hai. Yah yaqini taur par kahna mushkil hai keh pound/dollar ki jodi kis taraf jayegi. Bartanwi currency filhal istehkam ke marhale me hai, lehaza don ikhteyarat mumkin hai.

Yaumiyah chart ke mutabiq, pound/dollar ka joda 100% Fibonacci level (1.3173) par sideways me karobar kar raha hai. Is se yah ishara mil sakta hai keh qimat is satah se ooper jane ki taiyari kar rahi hai, lekin yah haqiqat keh Stochastic indicator ne zyadah kharidari ka ilaqah chor diya hai, ek aane wali rally ke khayal ki himayat nahin karta hai.
Meri nazar me, suratehal ke wazeh hone ke liye intezar karna behtar hoga. Agar qimat 1.3173 ke nishan ko tod deti hai to, pound sterling mumkena taur par pichle hafte ke muqami buland satah 1.2364 ka test karegi.
Agar qimta 1.3173 ki satah se ooper jane me nakam rahti hai to, is jodi ke pichle hafte ke muqami nichli satah ki taraf jane ki ummid hai.



4-ghante ke chart par suratehal yaumiyah chart ki tarah hi ghair wazeh nazar aati hai. 1.3264-1.3086 se mandi ki lahar ki buniyad par, pound/dollar ki jodi filhal 50% Fibonacci level (1.3175) ke bahut qarib karobar kar rahi hai. Is tarah ki qimat ka soluk aam taur par is satah ke breakout ka ishara karta hai.
Lehaza, sab se zyada imkani scenario yah hai keh Bartanwi pound kam ho jayega, lekin mai abhi tak short positions kholne ke liye taiyar nahin hun kiyunkeh market ki suratehal mixed hai. Ab sirf wazeh isharon ka intezar karna baqi hai.

GBP/USD pair ne Thursday ko doosray musalsal din apna upward trend jaari rakha, aur yeh bullish rahi bawajood iske ke yeh 1.3200 level dobara hasil karne mein naakaam rahi. Jazbaat positive rahe kyunke logon ko umeed thi ke Federal Reserve rate cut karega, jo ke job growth ko rok sakega. Friday ke din ka intezar hai jab UK ka economic data light rahega, magar US ka non-farm payrolls report ek bara event hoga jo ke investors ki tawajjo ka markaz banega.
US ne August mein 99,000 naye jobs ka izafa kiya, jo ke revised 111,000 jobs se kam hai jo July mein the, aur ye expectations jo 145,000 pe thi, us se bhi bohat neeche hai, ADP payroll processor ke mutabiq. Yeh reading early 2021 ke baad sabse lowest hai, jis ne nayi risk aversion ko janam diya aur investors mein US recession ka khauf barh gaya. ADP jobs report ko aam tor pe Friday ke non-farm payrolls report ka paishrawa samjha jata hai, halaan ke iski accuracy pe aksar sawaal uthtay hain. August NFP ka data, Federal Reserve ki agle interest rate conference call se pehle ka aakhri bara employment update hoga, jo 18 September ko hoga. Fed policymakers se umeed hai ke woh rate-cutting cycle ka aghaz karenge. Friday ka NFP report 160K ka andaza diya ja raha hai, jo ke pichlay mahine ke 114K se kam hai.

Rate markets abhi 40% chance pe bet laga rahe hain ke Fed iss mahine ke akhir mein 50 basis point ka rate cut ka raasta kholega, jab ke baaqi 60% bets 25 basis point higher open rate ke hain. Investors Friday ke NFP reading ka istemal karenge taake Fed ke pehle round ke cuts ki gehraayi ka andaza lagaya ja sake, jo ke March 2020 ke baad pehli baar honge. Wednesday ko doosri martaba intraday rebound ke bawajood, cable abhi bhi multi-month low pe hai jo 1.3250 high se upar hai. August mein 29-mahine ka high hit karne ke baad, pair apne recent highs pe barqarar raha hai. Price action abhi bhi bohat strong hai 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) jo 1.2725 pe hai, jab ke immediate downside technical target short positions ke liye 50-day EMA hai jo 1.2900 handle ke upar hai.

GBP/USD currency pair ka price behavior ab ghoor se analyse kiya ja raha hai. Aaj ke trading mein kal ki bullish candle ko absorb kiya gaya hai, aur agar din ke end tak koi slight upward rebound nahi hota, toh market ka din bearish engulfing candle ke sath khatam hoga. Yeh formation yeh suggest karta hai ke kal bhi downward trend jaari reh sakta hai. Technically, yeh pair monthly resistance zone mein dakhil ho chuka hai, jo ke is baat ka ishara deta hai ke bearish trend-based movement lower boundary jo ke 1.2843 ke aas paas hai, tak jaa sakta hai. Magar main target ab bhi daily support zone hai jo 1.2611 aur 1.2679 ke darmiyan hai. Sellers ka khas target 1.3099 ka level hai. Market Sentiment indicator jo multiple brokers se data ko aggregate karta hai, yeh dikhata hai ke zyada tar traders abhi GBP/USD pair ko sell kar rahe hain, jab ke ek bara player aksar opposite stance le raha hai, jo buying kar ke price ko upar push kar raha hai.
US ki positive economic figures release hone ke baad GBP/USD ka exchange rate kafi gir gaya. Is se pehle yeh pair 1.3122 pe trade ho raha tha, aur technical analysis yeh dikhati hai ke upper limit of downward-trending channel se rebound hone ke baad ek potential aur girawat aa sakti hai. Daily chart yeh dikhata hai ke GBP/USD pair ke liye bullish trend hai, jo ke buyers ki mazboot position ko darshata hai. Yeh ek moqa hai ke bullish momentum ka faida uthaya jaa sake. GBP/USD pair mein consistent growth ko dekhte hue, buyers current upward trend ka faida utha sakte hain. Sath hi, upcoming elections ke saath, US dollar ki value mein kami ka imkaan hai, kyunke political developments aksar financial markets mein uncertainty le aati hain.

Is liye, US dollar se mutaliq news aur elections ke natayej ko closely monitor karna bohot zaroori hai, taake apni trading strategies ko market ke tabdeel hotay rujhanat ke sath adjust kar sakein. Is context mein, GBP/USD market mein ek buy order kholna recommend kiya jata hai, aur take-profit point 1.3200 pe rakhna munasib hoga, jo ke current trend se match karta hai aur ek strategic exit offer karta hai. News aur market movements se ba-khabar reh kar, traders achi tareeqay se faislay kar sakte hain aur US ke political uncertainty ke dauran GBP ke bullish outlook ka faida utha sakte hain.

GBP/USD Ka Tajziya Aur Trading Ke Liye Raahnamai:**
GBP/USD jori ne Wednesday ko U.S. JOLTs report ke base par upar trading ki. July mein job openings ka number market ke expectations se kaafi kam tha, aur jab July mein unemployment rate bhi barh gaya, toh aur bhi kuch ummeed nahi thi. Market ko phir se weak US data ne disappoint kiya, jo ke market aur experts dono ki expectations se kam tha. Yeh yaad rakhna zaroori hai ke market participants ke liye actual value nahi balki forecast important hota hai. Agar forecast baar-baar zyada high set kiya jata hai, toh wo kabhi bhi meet nahi hota, aur US dollar aur kuch saalon tak girta rah sakta hai. Yeh currency market ki halat hai aaj kal. Haftay ke do din abhi baaki hain aur abhi bhi kai important macroeconomic data release honi hai. GBP/USD jori apne last local high se sirf thoda hi upar gayi hai. Agar baaki reports, jo ke labor, business activity, aur unemployment par hain, bhi weak hoti hain, toh pound is haftay 1.3250 ke level par wapas aa sakta hai.

Wednesday ko 5-minute time frame par do buy signals ban gaye. Price ne 1.3102-1.3107 ke area se do baar rebound kiya aur phir 1.3145-1.3167 ke area tak uthi, jahan se bhi rebound hua. Is tarah se, long positions ne novice traders ko kuch dozen pips ka profit dilaya. 1.3145-1.3167 ke area se rebound bhi kiya ja sakta tha, lekin aaj pair ko phir se rise continue karna chahiye agar US reports forecast se kamzor nikli toh.

**Thursday Ko Trading Karne Ka Tareeqa:**

Hourly time frame par GBP/USD ko global downward trend resume karne ya kam se kam kuch decline ka achha chance hai. British pound abhi bhi overbought hai, dollar undervalued hai, aur market har mauke ko British currency ko buy karne aur dollar ko sell karne ke liye use kar rahi hai. Filhal, pound sirf minor bearish correction dikhata hai, aur full-fledged downtrend ke bare mein baat karna abhi jaldi hai.

Thursday ko, pair ke niche move karne ki umeed hai kyun ke trend line breach ho chuki hai. Kal, price 1.3145-1.3167 ke area se rebound hui thi. Lekin aaj dollar rate bhi US macro data par depend karega.

5-minute timeframe par key levels hain: 1.2605-1.2633, 1.2684-1.2693, 1.2748, 1.2791-1.2798, 1.2848-1.2860, 1.2913, 1.2980-1.2993, 1.3043, 1.3102-1.3107, 1.3145-1.3167, 1.3225, 1.3272, 1.3310. Wednesday ko UK business activity in the construction sector ka secondary report release hoga, jo ke August ke liye second estimate hai. Zyada important reports, jaise ADP aur ISM services sector mein, US mein release hongi. Major movements phir se din ke dusre hisson mein expect kiye ja sakte hain

chart par, GBP/USD pair ne Thursday ke din apni girawat jaari rakhi jab ke usne 161.8% corrective level par 1.3258 se rebound karte hue 127.2% corrective level par 1.3054 ki taraf move kiya. Yeh pair abhi bhi ek upward trend channel ke andar hai, jo ke market sentiment ko "bullish" rakhta hai. Agar yeh pair channel ke neeche wali line se rebound karta hai, to yeh pound ko support karega aur 1.3258 level ki taraf dobara growth shuru hogi. Agar pair channel ke neeche break karta hai, to yeh ek "bearish" trend ke formation ka signal hoga. Wave structure bilkul clear hai. Aakhri complete hone wali wave ne pichli wave ke low ko break nahi kiya, jab ke aakhri wave up ne pichli wave ke peak ko break kar diya. Is tarah, hum filhal "bullish" trend ka samna kar rahe hain baghair kisi shak ke, lekin sari waves itni bari hain ke trend reversal ka pata lagana sirf ek significant delay ke sath hi mumkin hai. Main kisi choti wave patterns ko nahi dekh raha jo ke trend change ka indication dein. Halanki, upward trend channel abhi bhi intact hai jo ke pair ke liye support provide kar raha hai.

Thursday ke news ne U.S. dollar ko mazid mazbooti di, kyun ke U.S. economy ne traders ke expectations se zyada growth ki second quarter mein. Bears abhi bhi kaafi kamzor hain. Pair ko channel ke neeche wali line tak pohanchane mein bhi kafi waqt lag sakta hai. Har nayi report jo ke September ya saal ke aakhir tak Fed ki monetary policy ko ease karne ka ishara deti hai, wo dollar par bojh dal sakti hai. Aaj PCE index release hoga, aur agar yeh slow down karta hai, to yeh indicate karega ke U.S. inflation kam hoti ja rahi hai. Inflation ke slow down hone se Fed ke rate cut ki chances agle chand mahino mein barh jaengi. Filhal, FOMC ke members ko year ke aakhir tak har meeting par easing ki zaroorat ke bare mein yaqeen nahi hai, lekin unki raye tabdeel ho sakti hai agar inflation kam hoti rahi aur labor market weak results ke sath aur badhti hui unemployment ke sath show karta raha.

4-hour chart par, yeh pair 1.3044 level ke upar settle ho chuki hai. CCI indicator ne ek hafte se zyada "bearish" divergence ka warning di hui hai, aur RSI indicator ne ek hafte se overbought territory mein rehna shuru kar diya hai, jo ke aik rare occurrence hai. Aane wale dinon mein pair ki girawat ka imkaan zyada hai. Halanki, filhal pair ka 1.3044 level ke upar settle hone se agla Fibonacci level 76.4% par 1.3314 tak growth jaari rehne ka ishara milta hai. Hourly chart par sirf ek signal pound ki girawat ka hai.

Kal ke Asian session ke aaghaz mein, GBPUSD abhi tak girawat jaari nahi kar saka, lekin yeh currency pair pehle thoda barha jab ke pehle support 1.3171 par tor chuka tha. GBPUSD mein izafa dekhne ko mila aur yeh 1.3321 tak pahunch gaya. Kuch dair baad, AUDUSD phir se gir gaya jis ke natijay mein agla support 1.3171 par bhi neeche se tor diya gaya. AUDUSD ke phir se girne ki wajah yeh thi ke candle abhi tak shoulder area 1.3221 par penetrate nahi kar saka tha.
Agar H1 timeframe se analysis kiya jaye, toh yeh mumkin hai ke is Jumma ko GBPUSD mazeed gehra girawat ka samna kare. Is ki wajah yeh hai ke ek head and shoulder pattern ban chuka hai. Neckline area ko penetrate karke, yeh batata hai ke yeh pattern valid hai. Sab se zaroori baat yeh hai ke 1.3221 ke resistance ko penetrate na hone diya jaye, kyun ke yeh GBPUSD ko foran neeche jane se rok sakta hai. Is ke ilawa, GBPUSD ke girne ki mazboot wajah yeh bhi hai ke yeh currency pair ab tak 1.3224 ke supply area ko penetrate nahi kar saka. Khushkismati se, jab kal yeh bara tha, toh GBPUSD apne qareebi resistance ko paar nahi kar saka.

Agar Ichimoku indicator ki madad se analysis kiya jaye, toh jab se GBPUSD ki movement mein girawat aayi hai, candle ki position Tenkan Sen aur Kijun Sen lines ke neeche hi rahi hai, jis ka matlab yeh hai ke trend abhi bhi waqi bearish hai. Yeh indicator yeh bhi batata hai ke GBPUSD ke girne ka mauqa abhi bhi kafi zyada hai jab tak ke koi naya intersection nahi hota.

Isi dauran, stochastic indicator yeh dikha raha hai ke GBPUSD ki halat ab oversold ho chuki hai. Is baat ka saboot yeh hai ke line level 20 ko touch kar chuki hai. Is position mein jo abhi bhi upar ki taraf hai, mujhe abhi bhi ehtiyat se kaam lena hoga kyun ke GBPUSD ki girti hui movement dobara barh bhi sakti hai.

Toh aaj ke analysis ka nateeja yeh hai ke GBPUSD currency pair ke pass abhi bhi girne ka mauqa hai kyun ke H1 timeframe mein ek head and shoulder pattern neeche tor chuka hai. Is ke ilawa, candle ab tak supply area 1.3224 par penetrate nahi kar saka. Is liye, mein aap sab ko jo is pair mein trade karte hain, yeh recommend karta hoon ke sirf sell positions kholne par tawajju dein. Take profit target aap 1.3038 ke qareebi support par rakh sakte hain aur stop loss 1.3237 ke aas-paas rakh sakte hain