جی بی پی/یو ایس ڈی: کرنسی کے تبادلے کی تازہ ترین معلومات

Pound Sterling ne US Dollar ke against paanch din ki bulandi ko dobara 1.3200 ke qareeb choa, jab ke US NFP report par sab ki nazar thi. Kamzor US JOLTS job openings aur ADP Employment Change data ne is baat ka ishara diya ke US ka labor market kamzor ho raha hai.

Bank of England (BoE) se umeed hai ke baqi saal mein sirf ek dafa interest rate mein kami karega. Pound Sterling (GBP) thoda dheela para jab ke Friday ki European session mein naya paanch din ka high 1.3200 ke qareeb post kiya. GBP/USD pair US Dollar (USD) ke against zabardast consolidation kar raha hai jab ke United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data ke intezar mein hai, jo ke August ka data hai aur 12:30 GMT par publish hoga.

US Dollar Index (DXY), jo ke Greenback ki qeemat ko chhey baray currencies ke against track karta hai, zara si neeche gira aur crucial support 101.00 ke neechay aaya.

Maashiyat ke maahiron ka andaza hai ke US employers ne August mein 160,000 naye workers hire kiye, jo ke July ke 114,000 se zyada hai. Isi doran, Unemployment Rate umeed hai ke 4.3% se ghat kar 4.2% tak aaya hoga. Sarmayadaron ka dihan Average Hourly Earnings data par bhi hoga, jo ke wages ke barhtay huay dor ka ahem meyar hai aur consumer spending aur mehngai ko barhawa deta hai. Salana tor par wage growth ka andaza hai ke yeh 3.7% tak barh gaya hoga, jo ke pehle ke 3.6% se zyada hai. Mahana tor par, Average Hourly Earnings mein 0.3% ka izafa dekha gaya hai, jo ke July ke 0.2% ke baraks zyada hai.

US ka official employment data Federal Reserve (Fed) ki monetary policy ka faisla is mahine mein tay karega. Job data ki ahmiyat bohat zyada barh gayi hai jab ke Fed ne yeh kaha hai ke ab woh labor market ki sehat par ziada dihan de raha hai, kyun ke inflation wapas bank ke 2% target par aane ke qareeb hai.

Fed se umeed ki ja rahi hai ke September ki meeting se interest rates kam karna shuru karega. Magar traders is baat par ikhtilaf karte hain ke interest rate cut ka size kitna hoga. Fed ke ek bara interest rate cut karne ka imkaan is hafte barh gaya hai jab ke kamzor US JOLTS Job Openings aur ADP Employment Change data ne labor market mein kamzoriyon ko ujagar kiya.





Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling 1.3200 ke qareeb aagaya

Pound Sterling thoda dheela para jab ke lagbhag 1.3200 ke qareeb US Dollar ke against barh gaya. GBP/USD ne strong buying interest daryaft kiya, jo ke ek upward-sloping trendline ke breakout region ke paas tha, jo December 28, 2023 ka daily time frame ka high 1.2828 se plot hua tha.

Upward-sloping short-to-long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) yeh suggest karti hain ke yeh ek strong bullish trend hai.

14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) ab tak 60.00 ke qareeb hai, jo ke bullish momentum ke dobara shuru hone ka ishara hai.

Uper ki taraf, Cable 1.3500 ke psychological level aur February 4, 2022 ke high 1.3640 par resistance ka samna karega agar yeh 1.3266 ke fresh two-and-a-half-year high ke ooper break karta hai. Neeche, 1.3000 ka psychological level key support ke tor par ubharta hai.

**GBP/USD Ka Tajziya Aur Trading Ke Liye Raahnamai:**

GBP/USD jori ne Wednesday ko U.S. JOLTs report ke base par upar trading ki. July mein job openings ka number market ke expectations se kaafi kam tha, aur jab July mein unemployment rate bhi barh gaya, toh aur bhi kuch ummeed nahi thi. Market ko phir se weak US data ne disappoint kiya, jo ke market aur experts dono ki expectations se kam tha. Yeh yaad rakhna zaroori hai ke market participants ke liye actual value nahi balki forecast important hota hai. Agar forecast baar-baar zyada high set kiya jata hai, toh wo kabhi bhi meet nahi hota, aur US dollar aur kuch saalon tak girta rah sakta hai. Yeh currency market ki halat hai aaj kal. Haftay ke do din abhi baaki hain aur abhi bhi kai important macroeconomic data release honi hai. GBP/USD jori apne last local high se sirf thoda hi upar gayi hai. Agar baaki reports, jo ke labor, business activity, aur unemployment par hain, bhi weak hoti hain, toh pound is haftay 1.3250 ke level par wapas aa sakta hai.

Wednesday ko 5-minute time frame par do buy signals ban gaye. Price ne 1.3102-1.3107 ke area se do baar rebound kiya aur phir 1.3145-1.3167 ke area tak uthi, jahan se bhi rebound hua. Is tarah se, long positions ne novice traders ko kuch dozen pips ka profit dilaya. 1.3145-1.3167 ke area se rebound bhi kiya ja sakta tha, lekin aaj pair ko phir se rise continue karna chahiye agar US reports forecast se kamzor nikli toh.

**Thursday Ko Trading Karne Ka Tareeqa:**

Hourly time frame par GBP/USD ko global downward trend resume karne ya kam se kam kuch decline ka achha chance hai. British pound abhi bhi overbought hai, dollar undervalued hai, aur market har mauke ko British currency ko buy karne aur dollar ko sell karne ke liye use kar rahi hai. Filhal, pound sirf minor bearish correction dikhata hai, aur full-fledged downtrend ke bare mein baat karna abhi jaldi hai.

Thursday ko, pair ke niche move karne ki umeed hai kyun ke trend line breach ho chuki hai. Kal, price 1.3145-1.3167 ke area se rebound hui thi. Lekin aaj dollar rate bhi US macro data par depend karega.

5-minute timeframe par key levels hain: 1.2605-1.2633, 1.2684-1.2693, 1.2748, 1.2791-1.2798, 1.2848-1.2860, 1.2913, 1.2980-1.2993, 1.3043, 1.3102-1.3107, 1.3145-1.3167, 1.3225, 1.3272, 1.3310. Wednesday ko UK business activity in the construction sector ka secondary report release hoga, jo ke August ke liye second estimate hai. Zyada important reports, jaise ADP aur ISM services sector mein, US mein release hongi. Major movements phir se din ke dusre hisson mein expect kiye ja sakte hain

Is waqt GBP/USD currency pair 1.3200 level ke aas paas trade kar raha hai, aur market ka rujhan abhi bearish lag raha hai. Pichlay chand trading sessions mein pair ka movement dheema raha hai, jo yeh darshata hai ke market participants ne recent economic data ko hazam karne ke liye consolidation shuru kiya hai, aur woh un ahem announcements ka intezaar kar rahe hain jo is currency pair par gehra asar daal sakti hain. Halanki ab tak movement dheemi rahi hai, lekin chand factors yeh darshate hain ke aglay chand dino mein GBP/USD mein ek bara movement aasakta hai.

### US Dollar Ki Kamzori aur Economic Data
GBP/USD pair par jo sab se bara asar hai, woh US dollar ki kamzori hai. Chand economic reports ne United States mein growth ki slowdown ke asar dikhaye hain, khaaskar labor market mein. Maslan, Automatic Data Processing (ADP) report ne dikhaya ke August mein private sector job growth umeed se kam rahi. Yeh data yeh ishara de sakta hai ke economy thand par hai, aur is se yeh umeed barh rahi hai ke Federal Reserve apni monetary policy ko dovi (dovish) approach par le ja sakta hai.

Aane wala US non-farm payrolls data yeh wazeh karega ke labor market ki halat kitni mazboot hai. Agar yeh data umeed se kamzor aaya, to Federal Reserve ke rate cut ke bare mein tajziye aur barh jayeinge, jo ke US dollar ko mazid kamzor karega. Rate cut se US dollar ka yield advantage kam ho jayega, jo ke investors ke liye dollar ko kam attractive bana dega, aur yeh GBP/USD ke liye faidemand ho sakta hai. Market mein pehle se hi September 17-18 ko Federal Reserve ki meeting mein rate cut ke maqool imkanat dekhe ja rahe hain, lekin payroll data mein koi surprise aa sakta hai jo in umeedon ko ya to barha dega ya kam kar dega.

### Bank of England Ki Position
Dusri taraf, British pound ko support mila hai is umeed ke sath ke Bank of England (BoE) ke hawalay se rate cut ka tajzia diya ja raha hai. BoE ke Governor Andrew Bailey ne kaha hai ke UK mein inflationary pressures kam ho rahe hain, jo ke future meetings mein ek dovi rujhan justify kar sakta hai. Lekin, Bailey ne ehtiyaat barhne ki zaroorat bhi zikar ki hai, kyonke inflation abhi bhi central bank ke target se upar hai.

In tensions ke bawajood, market participants ne yeh maanda hai ke BoE se kareeb future mein rate cut ho sakta hai, aur November tak is baat ka maqool tajzia diya gaya hai. UK economy mein kamzor growth aur inflation ke kam hone se BoE ke pass apni monetary policy qaim rakhne ki gunjaish kam hoti ja rahi hai, aur yeh rate cut ka mumkinat barha raha hai. Agar BoE rate cut kar deta hai ya ek mazid hawkish stance ke isharaat deta hai, to pound ke value par nicha asar par sakta hai, khaaskar agar yeh waqt US dollar ki strength ke sath aata hai.

### Technical Analysis: Bearish Indicators
Technical analysis se dekha jaye to GBP/USD pair filhal bearish indicators dikha raha hai, khaaskar 1.3200 ke aas paas. Pair ne 1.3229 ke key resistance trend line ko break nahi kiya, jis se ek downside correction aya. RSI aur Stochastic Oscillator dono overbought territory mein hain, jo yeh dikhata hai ke pair mazid decline ke liye tayar ho sakta hai. Agar price 1.3180 se neeche jata hai, to ek aur gehri pullback ke asarat hain, jiska target 1.3025 aur 1.3085 ke support levels tak ho sakta hai.

Agar pair 1.3000 ke psychological barrier ko tor deta hai, to yeh rapid decline ko trigger kar sakta hai, aur 20-aur 50-day simple moving averages ke darmiyan 1.2890 aur 1.2900 ke aas paas trade kar sakta hai. Recent sharp increase ke baad profit-taking bhi ek pullback ka sabab ban sakti hai.

### Bara Movement Ke Imkanat
Halanki filhal bearish trend aur technical signals ek possible downside correction ki taraf ishara kar rahe hain, GBP/USD pair aglay chand dino mein bara move kar sakta hai. Chand ahem events volatility ko barha sakte hain, jisme US non-farm payrolls data ka release aur Federal Reserve ya Bank of England ke koi bhi ehm announcements shamil hain.

Agar payrolls data umeed se neeche aya, to Fed ke rate cut ke tajziye mazid barh jayeinge, jo ke US dollar ko kamzor karega aur GBP/USD pair mein rebound ko trigger karega. Baraks agar data umeed se zyada acha aya, to Fed ke rate stance ko barqarar rakhne ke liye mazid support milega, jo US dollar ko mazid mazboot karega aur GBP/USD ko neeche layega.

Isi tarah, Bank of England ke hawalay se unexpected developments bhi pair par gehra asar daal sakte hain. Agar BoE mazid rate cut ka ishara deta hai, to pound par selling pressure barh sakta hai. Agar central bank hawkish tone apnaya, to pound ko kuch support mil sakta hai.

Is waqt GBP/USD currency pair lagbhag 1.3200 ke aas paas trade kar raha hai, aur lagta hai ke market ka rujhan bearish side ki taraf jhuk raha hai. Recent sessions mein pair ne dheere dheere movement dikhai hai, jo is baat ki nishani ho sakti hai ke market consolidation kar raha hai, jahan market participants nayi economic data ko samajhne ki koshish kar rahe hain aur un key announcements ka intezar kar rahe hain jo currency pair par aham asar daal sakti hain. Movement dheemi rahi hai, lekin kuch factors yeh dikhate hain ke aanay wale dino mein GBP/USD mein ek bara move hosakta hai.

### US Dollar Ki Kamzori Aur Economic Data
GBP/USD pair par asar dalne wala ek aham factor US dollar ki kamzori hai. Kayi economic reports ne yeh dikhaya hai ke US mein growth slow ho rahi hai, khaaskar labor market mein. Misal ke taur par, Automatic Data Processing (ADP) report jo is haftay ke aghaz mein ayi thi, ne yeh dikhaya ke August mein private sector ki job growth expected se kam rahi. Yeh data is baat ka ishara de sakta hai ke economy thandi par rahi hai, jis se Federal Reserve ke dovish monetary policy apnane ki umeed barh sakti hai.

US non-farm payrolls ka intezar hai jo ke labor market ki taqat ke baare mein aur insight de sakta hai. Agar yeh data umeed se kam aya, to yeh speculation ko barhawa dega ke Federal Reserve apni aane wali meeting mein rate cut karega, jis se US dollar aur kamzor hoga. Rate cut se US dollar par hold karna kam faida mand hoga, jo GBP/USD pair ke liye acha sabit hoga. Market pehle hi Federal Reserve ki September 17-18 ki meeting mein rate cut ka imkaan price kar raha hai, lekin payroll data ka surprise expectations ko barhawa ya kam kar sakta hai.

### Bank of England Ki Position
Dosi taraf, British pound ko Bank of England (BoE) ke rate cut ki umeedon ne support diya hai. BoE ke Governor Andrew Bailey ne acknowledge kiya hai ke UK mein inflationary pressures kam ho rahe hain, jo future meetings mein dovish stance ko justify kar sakta hai. Lekin Bailey ne ye bhi kaha hai ke rates ko jaldi kam karne mein ehtiyat baratni chahiye, kyun ke inflation abhi bhi central bank ke target se zyada hai.

In concerns ke bawajood, market ne near term mein BoE se rate cut ka 25% imkaan price kar diya hai, aur November tak rate cut ka pura imkaan rakha gaya hai. UK economy mein easing inflation aur slow growth ke hawalay se BoE ke paas apni current monetary policy stance ko barqarar rakhne ka kam imkaan hai, jo rate cut ka signal ho sakta hai. Agar BoE rate cut ka signal deta hai, to pound par downward pressure barh sakta hai, khaaskar agar yeh US dollar ke mazid taqat ke daur mein hota hai.

### Technical Analysis: Bearish Indicators
Technical perspective se, GBP/USD pair is waqt bearish tendencies dikhata hai, khaaskar 1.3200 level ke aas paas. Pair ne 1.3229 ke key resistance trend line ko torne mein nakami ka samna kiya, jis ke baad downside correction dekhne ko mili. Relative Strength Index (RSI) aur Stochastic Oscillator dono hi overbought territory mein hain, jo is baat ka ishara de rahe hain ke pair mein mazid girawat ho sakti hai. Agar pair 1.3180 area ke niche break karta hai, to yeh ek significant pullback ki tasdeeq karega, jo next support levels 1.3025 aur 1.3085 ke darmiyan ho sakte hain.

Agar pair August ke lows aur psychological barrier 1.3000 ke niche break karta hai, to yeh 20- aur 50-day simple moving averages ke darmiyan 1.2890 aur 1.2900 ke aas paas kaam girawat kar sakta hai. Profit-taking bhi pullback mein aham kirdar ada kar sakta hai, khaaskar jab pair mein recently tez izafa dekha gaya hai.

### Bara Move Ka Imkaan
Haal ke bearish trend aur technical signals ke bawajood jo downside correction ki taraf ishara kar rahe hain, GBP/USD pair agle chand dino mein ek bara move karne ka imkaan rakhti hai. Kayi key events heightened volatility ko trigger kar sakte hain, jin mein US non-farm payrolls ka release aur Federal Reserve ya Bank of England se koi statement ya faislay shamil hain.

Agar payrolls data umeed se kaafi kam aata hai, to yeh Fed ke rate cut ke imkaan ko mazid barhawa dega, jis se US dollar kamzor aur GBP/USD pair rebound ho sakta hai. Dosri taraf, agar data surprise karta hai aur taqatwar ata hai, to yeh Federal Reserve ke current rate stance ko barqarar rakhne ke haqq mein ho sakta hai, jo US dollar ko mazid mazboot kar sakta hai aur GBP/USD pair ko neeche le ja sakta hai.

Isi tarah, agar Bank of England se unexpected developments samne aati hain, to yeh pair par significant asar dal sakti hain. Agar BoE rate cut ke zyada imkaan ka signal deta hai, to pound par mazid selling pressure aa sakta hai.

GBP/USD currency pair ne apni rally ko Friday ke din dusre consecutive din ke liye extend kiya, aur Asian session ke doran 1.2870 level ke qareeb trade kar raha tha. Yeh upward movement zyada tar improved risk sentiment ki wajah se tha, jo ke stronger-than-expected US retail sales data se fuel hua. Is ne US recession ke hawale se fears ko kam kiya aur risk-sensitive currencies, jaise ke pound sterling, ko support diya. Iske ilawa, British pound ko positive domestic economic data se bhi support mila, jo ke Thursday ko release hui thi. UK's GDP second quarter mein 0.6% expand hui, jo ke expectations ke mutabiq thi. Furthermore, annualized GDP growth rate 0.9% tak pohanch gayi, jo ke estimates aur previous quarter ke figure se zyada thi. Market participants eagerly UK retail sales data ka intezar kar rahe hain jo Friday ko release hone wali hai. July ke liye 0.5% monthly increase ki expectation hai, jabke pehle month mein 1.2% decline dekha gaya tha. Annual retail sales growth ka estimation hai ke 1.4% tak rise karegi, pehle ke 0.2% contraction se recover karte hue. Wahin doosri taraf, US Dollar weak ho gaya hai kyun ke traders increasingly September mein Federal Reserve ki taraf se 25 basis point interest rate cut ko price kar rahe hain. Lekin, ek aggressive 50 basis point reduction ka bhi possibility hai, jise CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq 26% probability mili hai. Iske bawajood, Dollar ko Thursday ko release hone wale robust US economic data se support mila, jisme stronger-than-expected retail sales aur initial jobless claims ka decline shamil hai.

Technically, GBP/USD pair ne August 8 ko 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) ke upar break hone ke baad upward trend kiya hai. Immediate resistance December 2023 high 1.2826 par located hai. Agar prices rise karti hain, to June high 1.2859 next obstacle ban sakti hai. Agar yeh level successfully break hota hai, to March high 1.2892 tak move hone ka rasta khul sakta hai. Downside par, initial support 1.2710 level par dekha ja sakta hai, jo pehle resistance act karta tha lekin ab support provide kar sakta hai. Agar yeh level breakdown hota hai, to August low 1.2663 ko challenge kar sakta hai, jo ke 200-day SMA ke sath coincide karta hai. Aage ki losses pair ko June aur March ke lows tak push kar sakti hain, jo ke 1.2620 aur 1.2598 ke darmiyan situated hain.

GBPUSD pair ke technical analysis ke mutabiq, 1-hour chart par aaj ke trading ke aghaz mein price buy zone mein thi, kyun ke price pichlay do dinon ke dauran ascending price channels ke andar trade kar rahi thi jo price ki movement ka direction bata rahe thay. Price weekly pivot level aur niche ke channel lines ke upar trade kar rahi thi, lekin jab price channels ke middle line tak pohanchi, toh wahan se neeche ki taraf rebound hui.

Abhi price dobara weekly pivot level par trade kar rahi hai, aur yeh level break karne ki koshish kar rahi hai. Agar yeh level break karne mein kaamyaab hoti hai, toh price girti rahegi. Trading advice yeh hai ke jab price weekly pivot level se ek ghantay ke liye niche stable ho, tab sell karein. Aur jab price current candle ke sabse zyada high price ke upar trade kare, toh buy karein.

Economic side par, British data aksar taur par favorable hai, lekin adverse risk conditions currency ko nuqsaan pohancha sakti hain, khaas tor par jab long sterling positions mein izafa ho raha hai. Economic calendar ke results ke mutabiq, Britain ke services sector ke liye August ka final Purchasing Managers' Index 53.7 tha, jo ke preliminary reading 53.3 se zyada aur July ke reading 52.5 se bhi zyada hai, aur yeh expansion zone mein daswin mutawatar reading hai. Is par tippani karte hue, Alex Gykov, jo BNP Paribas mein forex market analyst hain, keh rahe hain: “Humara yaqeen hai ke pound mein izafa ho sakta hai lekin positions ke extent ki wajah se downside ka risk zyada hai.”

Isi waqt, Brad Bechtel, Jefferies mein forex analyst, yeh tawakku karte hain ke aaj ke US jobs data se US dollar mein tez movements honge. Unho ne izafa kiya, “Friday ke print ke baad, meri tawakku ke mutabiq, hum ya toh dollar index mein 100 ya us se kam ya 104 ya us se zyada par honge.” Taza tareen US JOLTS data ke mutabiq, July mein job openings ki tadaad gir kar 7.67 million ho gayi, jo ke June ki downwardly revised 7.91 million ki reading se bhi kam hai, jo ke pehle 8.18 million report hui thi. Yeh consensus forecast 8.09 million se bhi kam thi aur April 2021 ke baad se sab se kam reading thi.

Mastering Forex with Price Action: GBP/USD

GBP/USD currency pair ki price behavior ka analysis iss waqt discuss ho raha hai. Aaj hum GBP/USD pair ki performance ka review karte hain jab hum din ka end close kar rahe hain. Aaj, humne kal ki bullish candle ko absorb kiya hai, iska matlab hai ke agar din ke aakhir mein thora sa rebound upar ki taraf na hua toh humara din bearish engulfing candle ke saath end hoga. Yeh formation kal ke liye downward trend ki continuation ko signal karegi. Technically, aaj hum monthly resistance zone mein enter hue hain, jo ke ek bearish trend-based movement ko indicate karta hai lower boundary ki taraf iss zone ke, jo ke takreeban 1.2843 hai. Lekin, main target abhi bhi daily support zone hai jo 1.2611 aur 1.2679 ke beech mein hai. Sellers ka target bilkul 1.3099 level tha.


Yeh scenario Market Sentiment indicator ke saath align karta hai, jo ke hum ek specialized service se track karte hain jo 8-9 brokers se data aggregate karti hai. Jab zyada traders market mein - GBP/USD pair ke liye - sell kar rahe hain, toh aik significant player aksar opposite stance leta hai, buying karta hai aur price ko upar ki taraf push karta hai. Subah jab maine buy aur sell ratio ka review kiya, toh maine dekha ke 70 percent traders sell kar rahe the jabke sirf 30 percent buy kar rahe the. Is imbalance ne mujhe anticipate karwaya ke British pound bullish move karega, jise usne thodi dair ke liye attempt bhi kiya. Lekin, US ke strong economic data ne GBP/USD pair ko tez bearish plunge karwaya, jisne 1.3099 ke round level ko break kiya. Mera aakhri analysis likhte waqt, GBP/USD pair 1.3122 par trade kar raha tha, aur technical indicators yeh suggest kar rahe thay ke rebound hone ke baad southern channel ki upper boundary se decline continue hoga.

GBP/USD currency pair ke price behavior ka tajziya kuch points ko discuss karta hai. Ek key support level jo uptrend se downtrend mein shift ka signal deta hai, wo hai 1.2822. Iske sath ek aur level 1.2855 bhi hai jo milke ek zone banata hai jahan breakdown hone par bearish trend ka signal milta hai. Daily chart ko dekhte hue, price ab uptrend channel ke upper boundary ke nazdeek trade kar rahi hai. Trend reversal ko confirm karne ke liye, uptrend channel ke lower boundary ka breach zaroori hai. Isliye, current market phase ek downward correction lagti hai, trend reversal nahi, khaaskar medium se long term ke liye.

H4 timeframe par monitor karte hue aur stochastic oscillator indicator install karne ke baad, aisa lagta hai ke current GBP/USD price condition oversold level par hai. Iska matlab hai ke price upar bounce back kar sakti hai. Aaj subah ek acha bullish candle form hota hua nazar aa raha hai, jo yeh confirm kar sakta hai ke price dheere dheere upar ja rahi hai. Lekin, kyunki yeh abhi bohot jaldi hai, position mein enter karne ke liye jaldi nahi karni chahiye. Better hai ke thoda wait karein agar momentum zyada bullish lagti hai, to buy option recommend kiya ja sakta hai.

Badi timeframe se dekha jaye to bullish trend steady nazar aata hai, lekin Wednesday ko GBP/USD price condition weak hoti nazar aayi aur 80 pips niche move hui. Yeh seller sentiment ke thoda resistance karne ka indication ho sakta hai. Agar niche decline continue hota hai aur valid candlestick pattern banta hai, to trend bearish ho sakta hai, aur phir seller scenario tayar karna padega. Lekin agar price wapas upar jaati hai, to buyer scenario ab bhi apply hoga. Isliye, position enter karne ka decision lene mein jaldi nahi karni chahiye.

Ab tak, GBP/USD market ki price movements kaafi achi upward trend dikhati hai aur dominant bullish trend hai, to entry buy opportunities ko dhundna acha hai. Lekin, Wednesday ko 80 pips ki decline aur lambi body wali bearish candlestick bhi ban gayi hai. Yeh decline shayad ek correction phase ka hissa hai jo higher trend se pehle aayi hai. Lekin, agar price aur niche chali gayi, to trend bearish ho sakti hai, isliye is situation ko closely monitor karna zaroori hai.

GBP/USD exchange rate ne North American trading session ke doran volatility ka samna kiya, jo ke kamzor US employment data ki wajah se tha. Is uncertainty ne Federal Reserve ke aane wale meeting mein interest rate ke faislay ke baare mein mixed expectations paida kar di. Jab ke 50 basis point rate cut ki probability shuru mein 70% tak barh gayi thi, yeh baad mein 43% tak gir gayi, aur ab 25 basis point rate cut ki probability 57% hai. Technical nazariye se, GBP/USD mein upar ki taraf jhukhav nazar aata hai, lekin agar yeh year-to-date high 1.3266 ko todne mein nakam raha aur 1.3200 se neeche gir gaya, toh ek potential bearish trend ka imkaan hai. RSI ne kharidari ke jazbe mein kami darshai, jo ke downward movement ko support karti hai. Agar yeh 1.3150 se neeche girta hai, toh agle support levels 1.3087 aur 1.3044 hain, aur uske baad 50-day moving average 1.2925 pe hai. Baraks, agar yeh 1.3200 se upar break karta hai, toh year-to-date high ko phir se test kiya ja sakta hai.

Tuesday ke subah European trading ke doran, GBP/USD ne apne negative momentum ko dobara resume kar diya, aur ek aham support trend line ko tod diya. Agar yeh 1.3100 ke neeche girta hai, toh zyada selling ho sakti hai, jo ke April-July ke uptrend ke 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level 1.3040 aur 20-day SMA 1.3000 ko target kar sakti hai. Agar downward trend jaari rahti hai, toh pair 38.2% Fibonacci level 1.2900 aur 50-day SMA tak pahunch sakta hai. Mazeed girawat se 2022 ki uptrend line ke continuation ka confirmation mil sakta hai, jo ke 50% Fibonacci level aur 1.2775 ke aas-paas hai. Technical indicators jaise RSI, Stochastic, aur MACD yeh darshate hain ke selling interest abhi ke liye unchanged reh sakta hai. Lekin, moving averages ka upward slope yeh indicate karta hai ke chalti hui bearish wave shayad ek bade uptrend ka hissa ho. Overall, GBP/USD exchange rate filhaal downward trend ka samna kar raha hai, lekin reversal ka potential abhi bhi bana hua hai, khaaskar agar pair key resistance levels ko break kar sake.

Meri subah ki forecast mein, maine 1.3217 level ko highlight kiya tha aur market entry decisions is level par based ki thi. Chaliye 5-minute chart ko dekhte hain aur analysis karte hain ke kya hua. Price barh gayi, lekin is level par koi false breakout nahi dekha gaya. Breakout bina kisi retest ke hua, jiski wajah se mujhe suitable entry points nahi milaye. Iske natije mein, din ke doosre half ke liye technical outlook thoda revise kiya gaya. GBP/USD par Long Positions ke liye:
Pound ne bina kisi rukawat ke apni rise jaari rakhi. Din ke doosre half mein, bullish market continue ho sakti hai, khaaskar agar U.S. ka consumer confidence data July ke liye kamzor raha, jo dollar selling aur British pound ki rise ko trigger kar sakta hai. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index aur S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index ko secondary importance milegi. Agar U.S. data disappointing nahi hota, toh naye support 1.3217 par correction ka intezaar karna behtar hoga, jo pehle din ke dauran resistance tha. Is level par false breakout ek acchi entry point provide karega long positions ke liye, jo bullish market aur naye monthly high 1.3253 ke liye aim karega. Agar weak U.S. data ke baad breakout aur upward retest hota hai, toh uptrend ke aur development ki sambhavnayein badh jati hain. Ye sellers ke stop-losses ko trigger kar sakta hai aur long positions ke liye entry point provide kar sakta hai, jiska potential 1.3286 tak ja sakta hai. Sabse door target 1.3340 level hoga, jahan pe mai profit lene ka plan kar raha hoon. Agar GBP/USD bina kisi significant bullish activity ke 1.3217 ke aas-paas decline karta hai, toh trading sideways range mein wapas aa sakti hai, jo din ke end tak chal sakti hai. Isse 1.3179 support tak drop aur retest bhi ho sakta hai, jo moving averages ke thoda upar hai. Is level par false breakout hona long positions ke liye sirf ek condition hogi. Main GBP/USD ko 1.3144 low se rebound karte huye buy karunga, din ke andar 30-35 point correction ke target ke saath. GBP/USD par Short Positions ke liye:**
Sellers ne practically give up kar diya hai, major pound buyers ke har push ko asaani se surrender kar rahe hain. Yahan pound ko sell karna attractive lag sakta hai, lekin stop-loss orders use karna zaroori hai, kyunki ye trend ke against hai aur outcome uncertain hai. Bears ka primary task monthly high 1.3253 ko defend karna hai. Is level par false breakout aur strong U.S. statistics ke combination se short positions kholna ek suitable scenario hoga, aiming for a correction aur 1.3217 support ka retest. Agar breakout aur downward retest hota hai, toh buyers ke positions undermine honge, jo stop-losses trigger karega aur 1.3179 tak raasta khol sakta hai, jahan pe mujhe major players se zyada active involvement ki ummeed hai. Sabse door target 1.3144 level hoga, jahan pe mai profit lene ka plan kar raha hoon.

GBP/USD currency pair ne 4-hour chart par is haftay ke doran growth dikhayi, aur sirf haftay ke akhir mein yeh ek active movement ke sath upar aur niche gaya. Aisi movements news ke asar se hui hain. Lekin, phir bhi price correction levels ke andar move karti rahi.
Upar ki taraf, price ne 1.3220 ka level test kiya, jo ke ek correction level hai, aur niche ki taraf yeh 1.3112 ko test kiya. Agar price ab niche jati hai, to next levels 1.3080 aur 1.3012 hain. Neeche wala indicator bhi kami ki taraf ishara kar raha hai. Is currency pair ke quotes ka movement dollar index ke asar mein bhi hota hai, is liye aapko usko bhi dekhna zaroori hai.

4-hour chart par index ke Friday ke movements bhi nazar aate hain. Price ne 100.95 ke correction level ko test kiya aur wahan se rebound karke upar chali gayi. Neeche wala indicator upar ki taraf dekh raha hai. Is wajah se, main yeh nateeja nikalta hoon ke GBP/USD pair ke quotes zyada chances hain ke niche ki taraf move karein.

Abhi price - GBP/USD, trend line ke neeche trade kar rahi hai, jo hamare observations ko confirm karta hai ke market sellers ke under hai, aur ab trend line bulls ke liye resistance ban gayi hai. Agar sellers market par apni dominance qaim rakhna chahte hain, to unhe support zone ke break ki zarurat hai - 1.315, jahan se ek corridor khul jayega currency ke mazeed decline ke liye naye targets ki taraf. Jo levels important daily bull zone ke liye honge, wo 1.319 hain, jahan se buyers ne history mein price ko reverse kiya tha.
4-hour chart par index ke Friday ke movements bhi nazar aate hain. Price ne 100.95 ke correction level ko test kiya aur wahan se rebound karke upar chali gayi. Neeche wala indicator upar ki taraf dekh raha hai. Is wajah se, main yeh nateeja nikalta hoon ke GBP/USD pair ke quotes zyada chances hain ke niche ki taraf move karein.


Abhi price - GBP/USD, trend line ke neeche trade kar rahi hai, jo hamare observations ko confirm karta hai ke market sellers ke under hai, aur ab trend line bulls ke liye resistance ban gayi hai. Agar sellers market par apni dominance qaim rakhna chahte hain, to unhe support zone ke break ki zarurat hai - 1.315, jahan se ek corridor khul jayega currency ke mazeed
Lekin, yeh bhi mumkin hai ke buyer trend line ko break karne ki koshish kare. Agar wo line ke upar consolidate karne mein kamiyab hota hai, to yeh buyers ke market ko reverse karne ki koshish ka pata dega.

Hamara discussion abhi GBP/USD currency pair ke current pricing behavior par focus kar raha hai. GBP/USD pair ne aaj target support level tak reach nahi kiya, halan ke mein ne 1.3079 ka test anticipate kiya tha. Rebound 1.3084 par hua, jo ke "price noise" ko dekhte hue effectively target ko hit karne ke barabar samjha ja sakta hai. Abhi ka resistance level 1.3114 par hai, jo ke 1.3114 aur 1.3079 ke darmiyan trading range create kar raha hai. Key resistance 1.3129 par hai, aur agar price is level ke upar rise hoti hai, to selling pressure kam ho sakta hai. US stock market mein aaj ke sharp drop ke bawajood, dollar ko thoda support mila, jiski wajah se minor sell-offs dekhnay ko mile.
UK kal apne service sector mein business activity ka data release karega, jabke US apni job openings ke figures publish karega. Expectations ye hain ke UK business activity mein growth hogi, jabke US job vacancies mein decline anticipate kiya ja raha hai. Dekhte hain ke in reports ka market par kya asar hota hai. Mein abhi bhi expect karta hoon ke price 1.3079 ke neeche move karegi aur pair EMA-200 par 1.2964 ki taraf jaayegi.

**Technical Analysis:**

Pound ne bullish trend channel mein ek similar reversal exhibit kiya hai, lekin yeh reversal khud uncertain lagta hai, kyun ke price zyada tar stagnant hai. Yeh movement current market behavior ka ek typical example lagta hai. Price abhi intraday level ke neeche hai ek daily paranormal candle ka, jise yeh already closely test kar chuka hai. Yeh price yahan thoda react kar sakti hai. Agar hum likely price action ko dekhein, to situation kuch is tarah unfold ho sakti hai: recent history ko dekhte hue, next pullback in trend suitable lag raha hai. Kuch aisa hi ab develop ho raha hai, jo yeh suggest karta hai ke price downward drift kar sakti hai bearish movement mein, aur bulls momentum lose kar sakte hain.

Accumulation ke baad, price ne ek doji form ki, jo ke bearish pin bar se resemble karti hai, aur uske baad ek small candle—yeh sab H4 chart par hai. In signals ko dekhte hue, mein apni sell positions hold karne ka inclined hoon, kyun ke lagta hai ke price downward slide continue karegi, jo ke bulls ke beech exhaustion ka indication de rahi hai.
Click image for larger version

**GBP/USD H4 MARKET ANALYSIS**
Good morning doston, aaj subah mein GBP/USD currency pair ka analysis karunga taake kal Monday ka market samajh saku. Is dafa mein H4 time frame use karunga, kyunke yeh time frame kaafi accha hai long-term trend direction ko samajhne ke liye aur pattern ko zyada clearly parhne ke liye. Aap dekh sakte hain ke pichle Jumay ko GBP/USD currency pair kaafi low par tha. Kaafi pressure tha, aur sawal yeh hai ke kya yeh price aur neeche jayega ya wapis upar?

Market analysis ka pehla step trend direction ko samajhna hota hai. GBP/USD currency pair ke trend direction ko parhne ke liye, mein moving average indicator ka period 21 aur moving average indicator ka period 34 H4 time frame par use kar raha hoon. H4 moving average indicator ke mutabiq bearish reversal ka imkaan hai, lekin D1 time frame ke moving average indicator ke mutabiq GBP/USD currency pair abhi bhi bullish hai. Is liye, mein yeh nateeja nikalta hoon ke GBP/USD currency pair ka trend abhi bullish hai.

Jab hum trend ko samajh lete hain ke yeh bullish hai, to agla step yeh hota hai ke sahi buying area ko identify karna. Stochastic indicator H4 time frame par abhi neeche ki taraf hai, is liye hum Stochastic Indicator ka wait karenge jab tak GBP/USD currency pair mein buying ke liye accha waqt na aa jaye. Is liye, filhal yeh lagta hai ke market thoda neeche jaane ka imkaan hai ya ek basic pattern banane ka intezar karega phir wapis upar chadh sakta hai.


Agla step stop loss area ko tay karna hota hai. Mein support level ko stop loss area ke liye use karunga, aur 1.3083 ka support level accha lag raha hai stop loss lagane ke liye. Is ke ilawa, mein sab se qareebi resistance ko target ke tor par use karunga. 1.3270 ka price level kaafi ideal lagta hai take profit ke liye. Neeche mein ek tasveer bhi attach karunga jo mere doston ke liye guide ke tor par kaam aayegi jo analysis maine kiya hai. Yeh tha mera chhota sa analysis GBP/USD currency pair par, umeed karta hoon ke yeh faidemand hoga.

**GBP/USD ka exchange rate barh raha hai**, jo ke 1.3090 ke price se shuru hua tha. Pichle teen dinon se price movement mein izafa dekha gaya, khaaskar Friday ko American trading session ke doran aik kaafi bara advance dekhne ko mila. Lekin baad mein currency pair ne decline dikhaya jab candle 1.3218 ke supply region ko break karne mein nakam rahi. Yeh decline kaafi bara tha, kyunke currency pair ne takriban 95 pips ka move kiya. Trading position ko 1.3125 par band kar diya gaya. Aik **head and shoulder pattern** ka aghaz ho chuka hai, jahan candle shoulder 1.3220 par break karne mein nakam rahi, jo ke ek potential reversal movement ka ishara hai. Price jald hi support level 1.3099 tak pohnch sakti hai. Agar GBP/USD is level ko Monday ko break karta hai, to downward trend zyada intense ho sakta hai.

**Stochastic indicator analysis** ke mutabiq market abhi oversold condition mein hai. Level 20 ke passing ka bhi yahi ishara hai. Halaanke mujhe lagta hai ke GBP/USD kaafi neeche ja sakta hai, lekin kuch izafa bhi mumkin hai. Lekin, main isay correction samajhta hoon kyunke yeh movement eventually decrease karega. Stochastic indicator abhi fall ko indicate nahi karta. Aaj ka research yeh batata hai ke GBP/USD currency pair mazeed neeche ja sakta hai kyunke candle position abhi tak tenkan sen aur kijun sen lines ke neeche hai. Is ke ilawa, aik head and shoulder pattern bhi H1 time frame mein ban chuka hai. Is liye, jo log is pair mein trade kar rahe hain, unhain sirf sell positions par focus karna chahiye.

**Current market sentiment** risk appetite ko stable dikhata hai, lekin kaafi volatility ki umeed hai jab Wednesday ko **US Consumer Price Index (CPI)** data release hoga. Yeh data bohot ahem hoga market expectations ko shape karne ke liye, khas taur par Federal Reserve ke potential rate cuts ke hawale se jo is saal ke akhir mein ho sakte hain. Economists ne predict kiya hai ke monthly headline aur core CPI dono mein 0.2% ka izafa hoga, jabke annual headline aur core inflation rates mein 10 basis points ki slow down expected hai, jo ke 2.9% aur 3.2% ho sakti hain, mutabiq taur par. Traders ab 46.5% chance price kar rahe hain ke September mein 50 basis point ka rate cut hoga, jo ke aik significant kami hai compared to last week ke 85%. Expectations mein yeh sharp decline, baghair kisi naye data ke, yeh suggest karta hai ke jo pehli baar substantial rate cuts ki umeed thi, wo shayad ek overreaction tha, jo weaker-than-expected **US Employment data** aur recession fears ki wajah se thi.

GBP/USD pair ab bhi **200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA)** ke qareeb hai jo ke 1.3161 par hai, jabke buyers ne price ko 1.3108 ke qareeb drop hone se roka. Lekin bullish momentum weak ho gaya hai, aur GBP/USD ab bhi apni multi-year peak se 2% se zyada down hai. Currency pair ab 1.3150 ke aas paas trade kar rahi hai, 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke upar reh kar. 14-day **Relative Strength Index (RSI)** 40.00 ke level par support provide kar raha hai, jo ke kuch market demand ko lower price points par indicate karta hai.

USD currency pair ne apni rally ko Friday ke din dusre consecutive din ke liye extend kiya, aur Asian session ke doran 1.2870 level ke qareeb trade kar raha tha. Yeh upward movement zyada tar improved risk sentiment ki wajah se tha, jo ke stronger-than-expected US retail sales data se fuel hua. Is ne US recession ke hawale se fears ko kam kiya aur risk-sensitive currencies, jaise ke pound sterling, ko support diya. Iske ilawa, British pound ko positive domestic economic data se bhi support mila, jo ke Thursday ko release hui thi. UK's GDP second quarter mein 0.6% expand hui, jo ke expectations ke mutabiq thi. Furthermore, annualized GDP growth rate 0.9% tak pohanch gayi, jo ke estimates aur previous quarter ke figure se zyada thi. Market participants eagerly UK retail sales data ka intezar kar rahe hain jo Friday ko release hone wali hai. July ke liye 0.5% monthly increase ki expectation hai, jabke pehle month mein 1.2% decline dekha gaya tha. Annual retail sales growth ka estimation hai ke 1.4% tak rise karegi, pehle ke 0.2% contraction se recover karte hue. Wahin doosri taraf, US Dollar weak ho gaya hai kyun ke traders increasingly September mein Federal Reserve ki taraf se 25 basis point interest rate cut ko price kar rahe hain. Lekin, ek aggressive 50 basis point reduction ka bhi possibility hai, jise CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq 26% probability mili hai. Iske bawajood, Dollar ko Thursday ko release hone wale robust US economic data se support mila, jisme stronger-than-expected retail sales aur initial jobless claims ka decline shamil hai.

Technically, GBP/USD pair ne August 8 ko 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) ke upar break hone ke baad upward trend kiya hai. Immediate resistance December 2023 high 1.2826 par located hai. Agar prices rise karti hain, to June high 1.2859 next obstacle ban sakti hai. Agar yeh level successfully break hota hai, to March high 1.2892 tak move hone ka rasta khul sakta hai. Downside par, initial support 1.2710 level par dekha ja sakta hai, jo pehle resistance act karta tha lekin ab support provide kar sakta hai. Agar yeh level breakdown hota hai, to August low 1.2663 ko challenge kar sakta hai, jo ke 200-day SMA ke sath coincide karta hai. Aage ki losses pair ko June aur March ke lows tak push kar sakti hain, jo ke 1.2620 aur 1.2598 ke darmiyan situated hain.