gbp/usd

Comprehensive analysis par mabni trading
GBP/USD
Assalam Alaikum! Kal, market ne ummid di keh pound/dollar ka joda 1.37270 ki muzahmati satah se niche ki taraf palatne me kamyab hoga. Halankeh, qimat dobara se is satah tak chadh gayi. Ab tak, yah is muzahmati satah ko todne aur faide ko badhane me kamyab nahin hua hai. Halankeh Bartanwi pound piche hat gaya, lekin trend line barqarar hai. Qimat ke dhanche ko dekhte hue, sterling mazid faide ke liye taiyar hai. Agar qimat maujudah muzahmati satah ko tod deti hai aur nayi bulandiyon par pahunch jati hai to, pound/dollar ka joda apni tezi ko jari rakhega aur kam az kam agli muzahmati satah 1.35043 ki taraf badhega.

ka analysis aaj kal kafi pechida aur ghambir hota ja raha hai. Pichle kuch waqt se, wave pattern kafi wazeh lag raha tha aur bearish wave set ki formation ko suggest kar raha tha, jiska target 1.2300 se neeche tha. Lekin, aam taur par U.S. dollar ki demand itni barh gayi hai ke ye scenario ab utna feasible nahi lagta. Demand ab bhi barh rahi hai. Abhi jo wave pattern hai, wo kafi mushkil aur complex ho gaya hai. Main aksar simple structures ka istemal karta hoon analysis ke liye, kyunke complex structures mein zyada nuances aur ambiguity hoti hai. Ab hum dekh rahe hain ke ek upward wave ne ek downward wave ko overlap kar diya hai, jo pehle ke upward wave ko overlap kar rahi hai, jo pehle ke downward wave ko overlap kar rahi hai (ye saare waves ek triangle ke andar hain). Hum sirf itna keh sakte hain ke ek expanding triangle ban raha hai jiska upper point 1.3000 ke aas-paas ho sakta hai aur balancing line 1.2600 ke aas-paas. Lekin ek aur upward wave jo kisi bhi wave pattern se fit nahi ho rahi, quotes ko triangle ke upar le gayi hai. Neeche wale chart mein alternative wave count dikhaya gaya hai. Market ne ek nayi wajah se kharidari shuru ki hai. GBP/USD exchange rate Thursday ko 35 basis points se gir gaya, jo ke itna zyada nahi hai given aaj ke news background ko. Kam se kam do FOMC members ne September meeting mein rate cut ki appropriateness par doubts express kiye. Kuch ghante pehle, U.S. GDP report for Q2 release hui, jisme US economy 3.0% grow hui, jabke pehle estimate 2.8% tha. Yeh bhi ke U.S. economy Q1 se do guna tez hui hai. Isliye, mujhe lagta hai ke U.S. dollar ka 35 basis point ka faida chhota hai; isse din ke end tak kafi zyada barhna chahiye. Pichle kuch hafton se bearish wave ke bawajood, mujhe pair ke girne ke siwa kuch nahi lagta. Main kisi aur movement ko trade karne ka sochta nahi, given the current news background. Aaj U.S. ka doosra report jobless claims par tha. Lekin is report ki value market expectations ke kareeb thi, isliye koi khaas reaction nahi hua. Overall, kuch doosre analysts ki tarah, mujhe lagta hai ke dollar bohot oversold hai, aur market agle paanch rounds ke Fed policy easing ko price kar rahi hai, lekin September mein rate cut hone ki koi guarantee nahi hai. Mujhe lagta hai ke instrument mein aage kaafi increase ka koi sense nahi ban raha, isliye main aise movements ko trade karne ki advise nahi dunga. GBP/USD ka wave pattern abhi bhi decline ka suggest kar raha hai. Given ke upward trend

Chart D1 par currency pair GBP/USD ki baat karte hue, jaise ke pehle andaza lagaya gaya tha, kal ki trading session mein price neeche ki taraf move hui. Wave structure abhi bhi ascending order mein bana hua hai, jabke MACD indicator overbought zone mein hai aur apni signal line ke upar hai. MACD indicator par bearish divergence nazar aa raha hai, jo ke ek strong sell signal hai. CCI indicator bhi overbought zone se neeche aa chuka hai aur yeh bhi bearish divergence dikhata hai. Yeh sab dekh kar yeh saaf hai ke market in signals par react hua aur price gir gayi. Kal ki candle ne purani bullish candle ko puri tarah engulf kar diya, jis se bearish engulfing candlestick pattern bana. Yeh sell signals ko confirm karta hai.

Mujhe lagta hai ke agle waqt mein price ko neeche ki taraf pressure mehsoos hoga, jo ke ascending trendline ki taraf jayega jo higher daily waves ke lows se draw ki gayi hai, aur is waqt yeh level 1.3257 hai. Agar yeh trendline aur level nahi tikte, to further decline ki umeed hai, shayad yeh support level 1.3008 tak bhi pahunch sakta hai, jo haal hi mein touch kiya gaya tha pehle price ke upar uthne se, aur yeh level September ka monthly low bhi hai. Is waqt buying ka sochna nahi hai; strategy yeh hai ke chhote timeframes par sirf downside par kaam karna hai jab corresponding formations banti hain.

Aaj ka main news package 15:30 Moscow time par hai, jismein shamil hain: US mein unemployment benefits lene walon ki total taadaad, Core Durable Goods Orders, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, Durable Goods Orders, US Gross Domestic Product, US GDP Deflator, aur US Initial Jobless Claims. 16:00 se 20:00 tak US Federal Reserve ke Chairman Jerome Powell ka speech bhi hai.

Is waqt ki haalaat ko dekhte hue, traders kisi bhi significant triggers ka intezar kar rahe honge jo next big move ko drive kar sakte hain. Chahe yeh economic data, policy changes, ya broader market sentiment shifts ke zariye aaye, GBP/USD pair potential volatility ke liye tayaar hai, aur traders ko dono directions mein sharp swings ke liye tayaar rehna chahiye. Yeh sab kuch trading decisions par asar daal sakta hai, isliye focus aur strategy ka hona zaroori hai.

GBP/USD ka current hal, jo 1.3378 par trade kar raha hai, ek bearish trend ko zahir karta hai jo ke aakhri kuch sessions se barqarar hai. Yeh trend is baat ki nishani hai ke British pound (GBP) apni qeemat US dollar (USD) ke muqable mein kho raha hai, jo ke mukhtalif economic factors ka nateeja hai jo dono currencies ko mutasir kar rahe hain.Yeh bearish sentiment UK mein jari economic uncertainties se linked ho sakta hai, jin mein mehngai ka khauf, economic growth ke masail, aur Bank of England (BoE) ke taraf se monetary policy mein tabdeeliyan shamil hain. Saath hi, market US ke taraf se Federal Reserve ke interest rate decisions aur inflation data jaise factors par bhi react kar raha hai, jo dollar ki taqat ko baray peemane par asar andaz kar sakte hain.Is waqt ke bearish trend ke bawajood, kuch nishaniyan hain ke GBP/USD mein agle dinon mein aik significant movement ho sakti hai. Traders aksar volatility ka intezar karte hain jab key economic announcements ya geopolitical events market sentiment ko tabdeel kar sakte hain. Aane wale economic reports, jaise employment data, GDP growth figures, ya inflation statistics UK aur US dono ke taraf se, qeemat mein taghayyur ka sabab ban sakti hain.Mazid, technical analysis se bhi potential reversal points ya continuation patterns ka andaza lagaya ja sakta hai. Agar pair kisi ahm support level ke qareeb pohanchta hai, toh ho sakta hai ke wahan se ek bounce back ho, jo current bearish trend mein reversal ka izhar kare. Baraks, agar yeh support levels ke neechey toot jata hai, toh girawat tez ho sakti hai.Nateejatan, jab ke GBP/USD abhi bearish tendencies ko show kar raha hai, lekin aik bara price movement agle roz ufaq par nazar aa raha hai. Traders ko hoshiyaar rehna chahiye, economic news par nazar rakhni chahiye, aur technical analysis ka sahara le kar is currency pair ke aanay walay fluctuations ko handle karna chahiye.

**Price Movement of GBP/USD Pair**

**Current Price Action**

Haal hi mein, GBP/USD pair ne nayi positive momentum dikhayi hai, khaaskar Thursday ke Asian trading session ke dauran. Yeh pair 1.3430 level ke qareeb se tezi se rebound hua, jo March 2022 ke baad se iska sabse buland point hai. Federal Reserve ke kai officials ke koshishon ke bawajood, jo market ki umeedon ko aagey ke monetary easing ke hawale se counter kar rahe hain, investor sentiment ab bhi optimistic hai ke November tak ek significant rate cut ho sakta hai. Yeh optimism, aur global financial markets mein broader bullish sentiment, GBP/USD pair ko ek full correction se bacha rahe hain, jab ke US dollar apne recent dip se recover hone ki koshish kar raha hai jo year-to-date lows ke qareeb tha.

**Factors Supporting the GBP**

Ek aham factor jo British pound (GBP) ko madad de raha hai, wo yeh hai ke umeed hai ke Bank of England (BoE) ka rate-cutting cycle US ki counterpart se dheerey hoga. Monetary policy expectations ka yeh contrast GBP/USD exchange rate ke upward movement mein madadgar sabit ho raha hai. Lekin, bullish investors zyada aggressive upward trades mein dakhil hone se pehle Federal Reserve ke rate cuts ke trajectory par zyada solid evidence ka intezar karenge. Aane wale dino mein, traders FOMC ke aham members, khaaskar Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, ke speeches ko ghor se dekhenge, kyun ke yeh US dollar ki strength ko asar andaz kar sakti hain aur nayi trading momentum paida kar sakti hain.

**Market Caution Amid Optimism**

Optimistic outlook ke bawajood, market mein ehtiyaat ka rujhan bhi hai, jo ke technical indicators mein nazar aata hai. Stochastic oscillator overbought territory mein dakhil ho chuka hai, jab ke Relative Strength Index (RSI) 70 level se bounce hone ke baad downward trend dikhata hai. Is ke ilawa, 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) apni bullish momentum kho rahi hai, jo pair par downward pressure ka ishara deti hai. Agar market mein pullback hota hai, to GBP/USD support level 1.3265 par ja sakta hai, aur us ke baad 20-day moving average jo ke 1.3170 ke qareeb hai. Agar girawat jari rehti hai, to yeh 1.3113 par upward movement ka 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level test kar sakta hai, aur phir 1.3000 level tak girne ka imkaan hai, jo ke 50-day moving average ke sath align karta hai.

**Potential for Further Upward Movement**

Dosri taraf, agar upward pressure wapas aata hai, to price 1.3400 area tak ja sakta hai, aur longer-term target ke tor par 1.3640 tak pohanchne ka imkaan hai, jo ke February 2022 mein established hua tha.

**Conclusion**

Akhir mein, jab ke GBP/USD pair ne favorable economic conditions aur BoE ke dheere rate-cutting approach ke sabab resilience aur mazid upside potential dikhayi hai, traders ko ehtiyaat baratni chahiye. Market signals aur key economic releases par ghor karna bohot zaroori hoga, kyun ke yeh factors price movements ko kisih bhi direction mein significant tor par asar andaz kar sakte hain.

**Chart D1 - Currency Pair GBP/USD**

Jaisa ke pehle andaza lagaya gaya tha, price kal ki trading session mein neeche chali gayi. Wave structure abhi bhi ek ascending order mein ban raha hai, aur MACD indicator overbought zone mein hai aur apni signal line ke upar hai. MACD indicator par bearish divergence hai - jo ke ek strong sell signal hai. CCI indicator bhi overbought zone se neeche aa chuka hai aur bearish divergence dikhata hai. Yeh saaf hai ke market in signals par react hua hai aur price gir gaya hai. Kal ka candle poori tarah se pehle ke bullish candle ko engulf kar gaya, jo ke bearish engulfing candlestick pattern banata hai. Yeh sell signals ko confirm karta hai.

Mujhe lagta hai ke is overall situation ke madde nazar, aane wale waqt mein price neeche ki taraf pressure mein rahega, ascending trendline ki taraf jo ke higher daily waves ke lows se draw ki gayi hai aur 1.3257 ke level par. Agar yeh trendline aur level mazboot nahi rahe, to aage aur girawat ki umeed hai, shayad support level 1.3008 tak bhi pohanch sakta hai, jo ke haal hi mein price ke upar uthane se pehle touch kiya gaya tha, aur yeh level September ka monthly low bhi hai. Is waqt buying ka koi plan nahi hai; strategy yeh hai ke chhoti timeframes par sirf neeche ki taraf kaam kiya jaye jab relevant formations hoti hain.

Aaj ka main news package 15:30 Moscow time par scheduled hai: Total number of individuals receiving unemployment benefits in the US, Core Durable Goods Orders in the US, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index in the US, Durable Goods Orders in the US, US Gross Domestic Product, US GDP Deflator, US Initial Jobless Claims. 16:00 se 20:00 tak - US Federal Reserve ke Chairman Jerome Powell ki speech.

Maujooda halaat ko dekhte hue, traders kisi bhi aham triggers ka intezaar kar rahe hain jo agla bada move drive kar sakte hain. Chahe yeh economic data, policy changes, ya broader market sentiment shifts ke tor par aaye, GBP/USD pair volatility ke liye tayyar hai, aur traders ko dono directions mein sharp swings ke liye tayyar rehna chahiye. Naye resistance levels ki kami yeh dikhati hai ke price mein further declines ki umeed hai, aur market reversal ke chances kam hain jab ke US dollar mazboot ho raha hai. Is analysis ke madde nazar, GBP/USD exchange rate ke barhne ki thodi si umeed hai, jo shayad 1.3169 tak pohanch sakta hai, phir aage neeche ki taraf trend continue kar sakta hai. Price shayad 1.3074 se neeche break kare, jo ke agla minimum level ban sakta hai jahan buyers apne stop-loss orders rakh sakte hain.