Eurusd forum

Fed ke chairman ne pehle hi August mein yeh confirm kar diya tha ke September se interest rates mein kami aayegi, is liye jobs report itni kamzor nahi thi ke investors ko 50 basis point cut ka andaza ho. Is wajah se dollar mein halki recovery hui. Friday ki soft jobs report ne rate markets mein pehle to halchal machai, lekin phir sentiment aur sakke par shift ho gaya, aur aglay FOMC meeting ke liye 25 basis point cut ki umeed barh gayi.
Lekin ab umeedain barh rahi hain ke is saal ke baad aur aglay saal ke shuruat mein aur zyada aggressive rate cuts ho sakte hain, utsalar ek Fed official ne “frontloading” ko kam karne ka mashwara diya hai. Lekin US ke kamzor data, girti hui oil prices, aur dovish Fed turn ke bawajood, EUR/USD ka forecast abhi bhi thora bullish hai jab tak ke is hafte ke aane wale macro events mein koi bara surprise na ho. Hum baat kar rahe hain aaj ke latest US inflation report aur kal ke ECB ke rate faislay ki. Pichlay hafte ke jobs data ke baad, mein abhi bhi CPI release se pehle dollar ke bare mein bearish hun. Market rate cut ki size par tafreeq mein hai, aur koi clear consensus nahi hai. Fed, jo aglay hafte apni meeting mein dollar ko ziyata hilne se rokna chahta hai, umeed kar raha hoga ke is hafte ka inflation data market uncertainty ko settle karne mein madadgar hoga.

Jabke US CPI Fed ke target ke qareeb aa raha hai, Powell pehle hi is baat ka ishara de chuke hain ke September 18 FOMC meeting mein rate cuts ka tasdeeq karenge. Ye CPI report is meeting se pehle aakhri bara data point hoga jo policymakers ko guide karega ke 50 basis point cut karna hai ya aam 25 basis point ke sath rehna hai.

Is liye, yeh report kafi tawajju hasil kar sakti hai, special agar numbers expectations se kaafi alag niklay. Inflation chaar mahine tak silsilewar slow hui hai, aur July mein 2.9% year-on-year tak pohanch gayi, jo March 2021 ke baad sab se kam hai. Umeed ki ja rahi hai ke August mein yeh mazeed kam hoke 2.6% ho jayegi, jabke core CPI ko 3.2% par stable rehne ki umeed hai year-on-year comparison meinmein

EUR/USD pair ne hafta ke aakhir mein apni upar ki lehr mein rukawat dekhi, aur Wednesday ko pohanchay gaye pehle se high ko nahi touch kar paya. Halankeh recent sell-off ke bawajood US dollar (USD) ke, spot price 1.1125 level se upar hai. Euro ko support milne ka ek aham wajah US labor market ka kamzor hona hai. Wednesday ko release hui data se pata chala ke March mein US employment growth kafi kam thi jo pehle estimate se bahut kam thi. Is ke ilawa, unemployed logon ki bharat se labor market ke thanda hone ka imkaan hai, jo economic slowdown ki chinta ko barhata hai. Is wajah se Federal Reserve (Fed) ke September mein interest rate cut ka imkaan barh gaya hai, jo Euro ko madad de raha hai. Jabke kamzor US dollar EUR/USD ko kuch madad de raha hai, mixed Eurozone Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data bullish sentiment ko kuch had tak dheela kar raha hai. Preliminary Eurozone PMI expectations se niche aaya, lekin 50 level se upar raha, jo expansion ko darshata hai. Lekin, Germany jo Eurozone ka sabse bara economy hai, dusre maheenay ke liye contraction ka shikaar raha. Eurozone mein slow wage growth bhi EUR/USD pair ke barhne ki sambhavnayein kam kar sakta hai. ECB ka July policy meeting bhi is ka izhaar karta hai. Recent data se ye bhi samne aaya hai ke US job growth March tak kafi kamzor thi. US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims ke barhne se labor market ke thanda hone ka andaza lagaya ja raha hai. US Manufacturing PMI ke girne se bhi economic slowdown ke imkaan barh gaye hain. Ye factors mil kar market mein speculation barhati hai ke Federal Reserve (Fed) shayad September se rate-cutting cycle shuru kar de. Jabke USD ne apne saal ke low se kuch recovery dekhi hai, ye recovery broader economic concerns se dhaki hui hai, jo EUR/USD pair ko mixed Eurozone PMI data ke bawajood support deti hai. ECB ke July ki policy meeting minutes ke mutabiq, September ka meeting monetary policy restriction ko dobara assess karne ka sahi waqt maana ja raha hai. ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaks ne 2% inflation target ko achieve karne par confidence zahir kiya aur economic uncertainties ko bhi maangliya. Unhone September mein ek aur interest rate cut ke liye tayyari ka bhi izhaar kiya. Is liye, agar EUR/USD mein koi upar ka movement hota hai, toh wo resistance ka samna kar sakta hai, lekin Greenback ke bearish sentiment Euro ko madad de sakta hai

EUR/USD mein Long Positions kholne ke liye Germany ka GDP figures economists ki forecasts ke mutabiq aaye, aur halaan ke report disappointing thi, lekin euro par sirf thoda pressure pada, kyun ke pehlay se hi data ne GDP contraction ko indicate kar diya tha second quarter mein. Doosray half of the day mein ziada activity ki umeed hai, jab ke US consumer confidence, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, aur 20 barae US shehron mein home price index ke data aa rahe hain. Agar consumer confidence mein kami hoti hai, to euro ko support milne ke chances hain, lekin agar yeh indicator barhta hai, jo ke mojooda surat-e-haal mein mumkin hai, to EUR/USD aur neeche ja sakta hai, jisko main fayda uthane ke liye dekh raha hoon. Agar 1.1153 support level par girawat ke baad false breakout hota hai, to yeh long positions kholne ke liye ek acha moka hoga, jisme euro ka rise aur bullish trend ka mazid mazbooti ka aim hoga, aur 1.1199 ka monthly high wapas aayega. Is range ka breakout aur upward retest pair ko barhata hua 1.1237 ka test karne ka moka dega. Aakhri target 1.1274 hoga, jahan main profits le lunga. Agar EUR/USD second half of the day mein 1.1153 ke aas paas significant activity ke baghair girta hai, to sellers ke paas ek bara correction ka moka hoga. Is surat mein, main sirf 1.1130 ke aglay support level par false breakout ke baad entry karunga. Mazeed, main 1.1107 se rebound par long positions kholne ka plan kar raha hoon, 30-35 points ki upward correction ka target rakhte hue EUR/USD mein Short Positions kholne ke liye Sellers ne bhi wait-and-see approac apnay hai, aur Germany ke data par sirf thoda react kiya hai. Agar euro second half of the day mein barhta hai (aur yaad rahe, hum bullish trend mein hain), to mujhe umeed hai ke sellers sirf 1.1199 ke resistance ke aas paas nazar aayenge, jo aaj tak hum nahi pohanchay hain. Is level par false breakout short positions kholne ka moka dega, jisme pair ko 1.1153 support tak reduce karne ka target hoga, jahan moving averages hain jo bulls ke haq mein hain. Is range ka breakout aur consolidation neeche aur downward retest mazeed selling ka moka dega, jisme movement 1.1130 tak hogi, jahan mujhe bulls se ziada active response ki umeed hai. Aakhri target 1.1107 hoga, jahan main profits le lunga. Agar EUR/USD weak US economic data ke bawajood barhta hai aur 1.1199 par koi bears nahi miltay, jo ke mumkin nahi hai, to buyers wapas initiative le lenge, jisme monthly high ko renew karne aur pair ko mazeed barhane ka moka hoga. Is surat mein, main selling ko aglay resistance 1.1237 ke test tak postpone karunga. Main wahan bhi sell karne ka plan kar raha hoon, GBP/USD currency pair ke neeche jaane ke chances abhi bhi hain, halanki

EUR/USD currency pair filhal apni haal ki faidaon par aage barhne mein pareshani ka samna kar raha hai. Do din ki behtari ke baad, yeh jor kirdar US session ke dauran aik tang trading band mein ghoom raha hai. Filhal, spot prices 1.1180 ke ahem level se thoda upar hain, jabke traders US se aane wale ahm maashi data ka intezar kar rahe hain. Aakhri update ke mutabiq, EUR/USD takreeban 1.1140 par trade kar raha hai.

Aage dekhte hue, Euro bulls kuch ahem resistance levels ki taraf dekh rahe hain, jismein haal ka uncha level 1.1200 aur July 2023 ka peak 1.1276 shamil hain, jo critical targets hain. Is ke muqablay mein, 1.1100 ka psychological support level kisi bhi neechay ki harkat ke liye ek cushion ki tarah kaam karega. Yeh resistance aur support levels ka balance pair ki haalat ke liye kuch had tak optimistic nazar aata hai.

EUR/USD ke buniyadi pehlu:

Aakhri data Eurozone mein chal rahe maashi mushkilat ko highlight karta hai, khaaskar iske do bade mawaqe, Germany aur France. Germany ki industrial production July mein 2.4% mahine ke hisaab se ghat gayi, jabke sirf 0.3% ki kami ki umeed thi. France ne bhi ek downturn report kiya, jismein industrial output 0.5% tak ghir gaya. Yeh disappointing figures bearish outlook ko janam deti hain, jaise ke Reuters poll mein dekha gaya, jismein 30 August se 5 September tak ke dauran 85% economists ne umeed ki hai ke European Central Bank (ECB) aane wale meetings mein interest rate cuts implement karega.

In maashi mushkilat ko dekhte hue, kai ECB officials bazaar ke maamlaat ke saath aage barh rahe hain, jo potential interest rate cuts ka andaza lagate hain. ECB ke Executive Board member Piero Cipollone ne aik recent interview mein khauf ka izhar kiya, kehte hue, "yeh aik asal khatar hai ke [ECB] ka stance zyada restrictive ho sakta hai." Yeh jazba Eurozone ki maashi raftar ke baare mein badti hui pareshani ko darshata hai aur monetary policy mein tabdeeli ki sambhavna ko ujagar karta hai.

Hourly Time Frame Technical Outlook:

Bawajood iske ke pair ne 1.1150 se upar faida rakhne mein nakami hasil ki, EUR/USD ka nazar aane wala haal kuch had tak optimistic hai. Yeh pair 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke nazdeek support tayyar kar raha hai, jo ke takreeban 1.1157 par hai. Is ke ilawa, lambay arse ke indicators jaise ke 50-day aur 100-day EMAs, jo 1.1144 aur 1.1135 par hain, oonche taraf ja rahe hain, jo aane wale waqt mein growth ki sambhavna dikhata hai. Iske ilawa, currency pair apne ground ko hourly chart par aik Rising Channel mein pakray rakha hai, jo positive momentum ko darshata hai.

Yeh technical indicators EUR/USD pair ke liye mixed tasveer pesh karte hain. 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) 60.00 ke mark se neeche aa gaya hai, jabke yeh pehle 75.00 ke qareeb overbought status par tha. Yeh kami momentum ke thande hone ki sambhavna darshati hai, jo traders ko agle aane wale maashi data aur bazaar ke haalaat ke madde nazar apni positions dobara dekhne par majboor kar rahi hai.

EUR/USD pair ne is hafte kaafi uthal puthal dekhi, khaas taur par FOMC meeting ke pehle, jo ke Thursday subha hui. Aakhir mein, pair ne positive side pe hafte ka ikhtitam kiya. Jo baat dilchasp hai, wo yeh ke weekly aur daily price MA5/MA10 ke High supply zone mein exactly position mein hain. Yeh cheez ya to price mein decline ka sabab ban sakti hai, ya phir positive continuation ka moqa de sakti hai. Kuch ahem levels hain jo avoid karne chahiye kyun ke yeh levels forceful moves ko trigger kar sakte hain. Daily chart pe dekha ja sakta hai ke buyers kabhi bhi blue-marked resistance level 1.1191 ko breach nahi kar paaye. Maujooda price 1.1011 ke yellow support aur 1.1191 ke blue resistance ke darmiyan sideways move kar raha hai. Agar koi strong breakout nahi hota, to price isi range mein trade karega. Flat Bollinger Bands ka structure bhi isi baat ki taraf ishara kar raha hai. Abhi price apne strongest daily area mein hai, jahan decline ka potential hai. Is liye traders “sell on strength” ka approach istemal kar sakte hain. H4 chart pe bhi price resistance ke qareeb hai, magar koi aisi buy momentum nahi jo bullish commitment ka pata de. Is baat se weakness ka chance barhta hai. Momentum indicator pe dekha ja sakta hai ke niche bearish divergence trend reversal ka signal bana hai, jo ke ek aur signal hai ke market mein kamzori aa rahi hai. Market structures jo Higher High aur Lower Low ko represent kar rahe they, wo bhi break ho chuke hain. Is wajah se mujhe lagta hai ke market ko ek badi correction ki zarurat hai, jo ke EMA200 H4 tak ho sakti hai, uske baad hi uptrend phase ka continuation dekha ja sakta hai. Yeh potential halaat ka istemal karte hue trade plan karna zaruri hai.

EUR/USD ka girna ab ruk sakta hai aaj ke US CPI inflation data aur Thursday ke European Central Bank (ECB) ke rate faislay se pehle, chahe is ne haal hi mein mushkilat ka samna kiya ho aur Eurozone ke itnay achay data nahi aaye. US dollar CPI report se pehle thora kamzor ho gaya jab polls ne dikhaya ke Harris ne pehle presidential debate mein Trump ko outperform kiya. EUR/USD ne wapis bounce back kiya jabke usne hafte ka aghaz kamzor surat mein kiya, jab Friday ka dip dekha gaya, lekin US jobs ke kamzor news bhi US dollar ko aur zyada girane ke liye kaafi nahi the.
Haal hi mein EUR/USD kyun mushkilat ka shikar raha?

Is hafte ke economic calendar ke shuruat mein aram ne dollar ko takreeban tamam badi currencies ke khilaf kuch support dila diya, siwaye yen ke, jisne EUR/USD par niche ka dabao dala. Ye Friday ke girawat ke baad hua jab latest US employment data ne Fed ke employment mein kamzori ke khauf ko tasdeeq kiya.

Fed ke chairman ne pehle hi August mein yeh confirm kar diya tha ke September se interest rates mein kami aayegi, is liye jobs report itni kamzor nahi thi ke investors ko 50 basis point cut ka andaza ho. Is wajah se dollar mein halki recovery hui. Friday ki soft jobs report ne rate markets mein pehle to halchal machai, lekin phir sentiment aur ehtiyat par shift ho gaya, aur aglay FOMC meeting ke liye 25 basis point cut ki umeed barh gayi.

Lekin ab umeedain barh rahi hain ke is saal ke baad aur aglay saal ke shuruat mein aur zyada aggressive rate cuts ho sakte hain, khaaskar ek Fed official ne “frontloading” ko kam karne ka mashwara diya hai. Lekin US ke kamzor data, girti hui oil prices, aur dovish Fed turn ke bawajood, EUR/USD ka forecast abhi bhi thora bullish hai jab tak ke is hafte ke aane wale macro events mein koi bara surprise na ho. Hum baat kar rahe hain aaj ke latest US inflation report aur kal ke ECB ke rate faislay ki. Pichlay hafte ke jobs data ke baad, mein abhi bhi CPI release se pehle dollar ke bare mein bearish hun. Market rate cut ki size par tafreeq mein hai, aur koi clear consensus nahi hai. Fed, jo aglay hafte apni meeting mein dollar ko ziada hilne se rokna chahta hai, umeed kar raha hoga ke is hafte ka inflation data market uncertainty ko settle karne mein madadgar hoga.

Jabke US CPI Fed ke target ke qareeb aa raha hai, Powell pehle hi is baat ka ishara de chuke hain ke September 18 FOMC meeting mein rate cuts ka tasdeeq karenge. Ye CPI report is meeting se pehle aakhri bara data point hoga jo policymakers ko guide karega ke 50 basis point cut karna hai ya aam 25 basis point ke sath rehna hai.

Is liye, yeh report kafi tawajju hasil kar sakti hai, khaaskar agar numbers expectations se kaafi alag niklay. Inflation chaar mahine tak silsilewar slow hui hai, aur July mein 2.9% year-on-year tak pohanch gayi, jo March 2021 ke baad sab se kam hai. Umeed ki ja rahi hai ke August mein yeh mazeed kam hoke 2.6% ho jayegi, jabke core CPI ko 3.2% par stable rehne ki umeed hai year-on-year comparison mein.

ECB ka rate faisla kafi bara hoga. Ab tak, analysts is baat par mutafiq lag rahe hain ke ECB eurozone ki kamzor economy ke jawab mein rate cuts mein taizi nahi karega. June mein 25 basis points cut ke baad, umeed hai ke ECB Thursday ko ek aur aisi cut announce karega.

EURUSD market ka jaiza liya aur H4 time frame chart pe analysis ki koshish ki, jo ke kal raat ke market trend ki wajah se kaafi dilchasp lag raha tha. Main ne dekha ke ek achi upar janay ki opportunity phir se ubharti hui nazar aayi. Aik reversal signal bhi dikhayi diya, jahan pichlay chand dinon mein price movement zyada tar sellers ke qabze mein tha jo ke neeche lay janay ki koshish kar rahe thay, lekin chart pe yeh dekhne ko mila ke bearish attempt abhi tak 1.1004 level ko break nahi kar Saka jo is hafte ke liye ek support ka kaam kar raha hai. Is ka matlab yeh hai ke agar sellers is support area ko na tor sakay, to trend upar ki taraf move karna shuru kar sakta hai. Is liye, main aik strong trading plan bana raha hoon taake andaza laga sako ke price kab upar janay shuru hogi aur agla target kahan ho sakta hai, H4 time frame ke mutabiq. Saath hi main stochastic oscillator indicator aur support resistance boundaries ka bhi istemal kar raha hoon. EURUSD ka price movement H4 time frame chart pe reversal signal dikha raha hai, jo ke pichlay bearish correction candlestick ke shape se pehlay tha. Daily time frame main hum yeh dekh saktay hain ke pichlay hafte ke trading session main buyers apna bullish trend qaim rakhne mein nakam rahe kyun ke sellers ka pressure zyada ho gaya aur market correction ki taraf chal diya.
Is hafte bhi bearish attempt jari hai, lekin pichlay Thursday ko accha buying interest dekhne ko mila, jis ne candlestick position ko improve kar diya aur market ko bullish rally ka rasta diya jaise ke August ke end mein dekhne ko mila tha. Stochastics ka additional analysis bhi dekha, jahan signal line 80 zone tak pohanch chuki hai, jo market ke mazeed barhnay ka ishara deti hai. Aaj bhi buyers ko momentum mil sakta hai ke woh EURUSD price ko aagay barhane mein kaamiyab hoon.

Filhaal market movement 1.1078 ke aas paas hai aur main aglay izafay ka signal intezar kar raha hoon, kyun ke aaj dopahar tak market transactions mein koi khaas volatility nahi dekhne ko mili. Pichlay mahine ke benchmark ke mutabiq, ek stable izafa dekhne ko mil raha hai jo ke bich bich mein downward corrections ke sath tha. Market zyada bullish move kar raha hai, lekin main tab tak wait karunga jab tak buyers 1.1096 resistance zone ko break nahi kar lete, taake buy signal valid ho sake. Aaj ke market

EUR/USD mein Long Positions kholne ke liye Germany ka GDP figures economists ki forecasts ke mutabiq aaye, aur halaan ke report disappointing thi, lekin euro par sirf thoda pressure pada, kyun ke pehlay se hi data ne GDP contraction ko indicate kar diya tha second quarter mein. Doosray half of the day mein ziada activity ki umeed hai, jab ke US consumer confidence, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, aur 20 barae US shehron mein home price index ke data aa rahe hain. Agar consumer confidence mein kami hoti hai, to euro ko support milne ke chances hain, lekin agar yeh indicator barhta hai, jo ke mojooda surat-e-haal mein mumkin hai, to EUR/USD aur neeche ja sakta hai, jisko main fayda uthane ke liye dekh raha hoon. Agar 1.1153 support level par girawat ke baad false breakout hota hai, to yeh long positions kholne ke liye ek acha moka hoga, jisme euro ka rise aur bullish trend ka mazid mazbooti ka aim hoga, aur 1.1199 ka monthly high wapas aayega. Is range ka breakout aur upward retest pair ko barhata hua 1.1237 ka test karne ka moka dega. Aakhri target 1.1274 hoga, jahan main profits le lunga. Agar EUR/USD second half of the day mein 1.1153 ke aas paas significant activity ke baghair girta hai, to sellers ke paas ek bara correction ka moka hoga. Is surat mein, main sirf 1.1130 ke aglay support level par false breakout ke baad entry karunga. Mazeed, main 1.1107 se rebound par long positions kholne ka plan kar raha hoon, 30-35 points ki upward correction ka target rakhte hue EUR/USD mein Short Positions kholne ke liye Sellers ne bhi wait-and-see approac apnay hai, aur Germany ke data par sirf thoda react kiya hai. Agar euro second half of the day mein barhta hai (aur yaad rahe, hum bullish trend mein hain), to mujhe umeed hai ke sellers sirf 1.1199 ke resistance ke aas paas nazar aayenge, jo aaj tak hum nahi pohanchay hain. Is level par false breakout short positions kholne ka moka dega, jisme pair ko 1.1153 support tak reduce karne ka target hoga, jahan moving averages hain jo bulls ke haq mein hain. Is range ka breakout aur consolidation neeche aur downward retest mazeed selling ka moka dega, jisme movement 1.1130 tak hogi, jahan mujhe bulls se ziada active response ki umeed hai. Aakhri target 1.1107 hoga, jahan main profits le lunga. Agar EUR/USD weak US economic data ke bawajood barhta hai aur 1.1199 par koi bears nahi miltay, jo ke mumkin nahi hai, to buyers wapas initiative le lenge, jisme monthly high ko renew karne aur pair ko mazeed barhane ka moka hoga. Is surat mein, main selling ko aglay resistance 1.1237 ke test tak postpone karunga. Main wahan bhi sell karne ka plan kar raha hoon, GBP/USD currency pair ke neeche jaane ke chances abhi bhi hain, halanki

### EUR/USD: Key Patterns and Signals

Hamari guftagu ab EUR/USD currency pair ke maujooda pricing behavior ka jaiza lene par mabni hai. Bazaar Fed ke interest rates mein tabdeeli ki taraf bechain hai, aur saath hi kal aane wale Consumer Price Index (CPI) report par bhi nazar hai. Is report ke baad mahol mein khaas harkat dekhne ko mil sakti hai. EUR/USD tab tak purani halat mein nahi rahe ga jab tak Fed ka faisla nahi aata. Aap shayad European Central Bank (ECB) ke meeting ka bhi zikar kar rahe hain, jo Thursday ko hai, jo is maamle mein ahmiyat rakhti hai. Maine forecast calendar ko dekha aur mujhe dekhar hairani hui ke 0.6 basis points ka rate reduction plan kiya gaya hai, jo rate ko 4.25% se 3.64% tak le aayega. Agar yeh forecast theek raha, toh EUR/USD mein kam zyada girawat dekhne ko mil sakti hai. Lekin, agar ECB sirf 0.5 ya 0.2 points ka reduction karta hai, toh EUR/USD ko mazid taqat mil sakti hai. Aise mein ECB ka rate cut dollar ko mazid majboot karne mein madadgar ho sakta hai aur EUR/USD ko kamzor kar sakta hai.

Pichle Jumme ko EUR/USD pair ne khaas taur par behtareen recovery dikhai, jo ke kuch 4 hafton ke baad sab se neechi levels se upar aya. Yeh positive momentum pair ko haftay ke trading range ke upar end tak le gaya, jo lagbhag 1.1090 ke aas-paas tha. Is upar chadhai ko kamzor US dollar ne support diya, jo ke weaker-than-expected US Producer Price Index (PPI) report ki wajah se tha. PPI data ne Federal Reserve ke agle haftay zyada aggressive rate cut ki umeed ko mazid barhadiya. Is positive risk sentiment ke sath, US dollar ne girawat dikhai aur is ka natija yeh hua ke EUR/USD pair ki qeemat mein izafa hua. Iske ilawa, European Central Bank (ECB) ka apne current interest rate stance ko barqarar rakhna euro ko support diya, jo currency pair ke liye buying interest ko mazid barhata hai.

Technical perspective se, EUR/USD pair ab ek downward channel ke upper boundary ke qareeb trade kar raha hai, jo ke pichle teen hafton se chal raha hai. Agar yeh channel se mazid behtar break hota hai, toh yeh recent corrective decline ke khatam hone ki nishani ban sakti hai aur short term mein mazid upward movement ki taraf rukh de sakti hai.

Is waqt bazaar ki nazar agle economic events par hai, jo ke EUR/USD ke liye ahmiyat rakhte hain.

EUR/USD Currency Pair Ki Pricing Behavior Ka Jaiza

Hamara mauzoo is waqt EUR/USD currency pair ke pricing behavior ka analysis hai. Market mein sab ke sab Federal Reserve ke interest rates mein hone wale tabdeeliyon ka intezaar kar rahe hain, aur kal aane wale Consumer Price Index (CPI) report par bhi sab ki tawajjo hai. Yeh report aane ke baad significant movement dekhne ko mil sakti hai. EUR/USD pair yeh intezaar nahi karega ke Fed ka faisla aajaye, balke is dauran bhi kuch na kuch harkaatein zaroor hongi. Iss ke ilawa, European Central Bank (ECB) ka Thursday ko meeting hai, jo ke bohot relevant hai is pair ki future movements ke liye.

Mein ne jab forecast calendar ka jaiza liya to mujhe yeh dekh kar hairani hui ke ECB se 0.6 basis points ki rate reduction ki tawaqo hai, jisse interest rate 4.25% se gir kar 3.64% tak aayega. Agar yeh forecast sach sabit hota hai, to EUR/USD mein ziada downward movement dekhne ko nahi milegi. Lekin is baat ka bhi risk hai ke ECB sirf 0.5 ya 0.2 points se rate reduce kare, jisme EUR/USD ko thodi strength mil sakti hai. Aise mein, ECB ki yeh rate cut dollar ko mazid mazboot karne mein kaam karegi, jab ke EUR/USD ko kamzor kar de gi. Haan, yeh baat lagti hai ke zyada log is waqt south side ke trend ki taraf rujhan rakhte hain.

Fed Ka Faisla Aur Interest Rate Ka Asar

Yeh movement zyada tar Fed ke faislay ki wajah se ho sakti hai, ke jo 25 basis points se interest rates ko neeche laayega. Halaanke kuch din pehle, jab US inflation data ka release hona tha, to 50 basis points ki reduction ki tawaqo thi. Yeh aam baat hai ke jab interest rates girti hain, to national currency ki value bhi girti hai, kyun ke currency ka supply barh jata hai. Yeh kehnay ka matlab hai ke dollar ko 25 basis points ki kami ke saath downward pressure face karna chahiye, jo ke EUR/USD pair ke southward movement ke liye ek umeed bana sakta hai.

Zyada tar market participants ka khayal hai ke dollar ke saath kuch stability aayegi aur EUR/USD southward movement ko face karega. Lekin, Fed ka irada hai ke iss saal ke dauran interest rates ko 100 basis points tak reduce kare aur 2025 tak aur 100 basis points se neeche le aaye. Yeh koi itni buri baat nahi hai ke September mein rates ko 500 basis points se reduce nahi kiya ja raha, balki October mein ya aglay kuch months tak yeh reduction dekhne ko milegi. Mere khyal mein yeh ho sakta hai ke Fed 4 dafa mein 25 basis points ki reduction karay.

Meri Predictions Aur Ainday Ka Mansooba

Meri basic prediction yeh hai ke EUR/USD pair abhi 1.1070 se northward movement karega. Yeh straight upward movement ho sakti hai, aur humay expansion dekhne ko mil sakti hai. Lekin yeh depend karta hai ke upcoming economic data aur Fed ka faisla kis taraf jata hai. Agar Fed interest rates ko bohot zyada nahi ghatata, to shayad dollar thoda stable ho jaye. Aur agar ECB bhi apne interest rates ko aggressively cut karta hai, to EUR/USD pair ko thoda support mil sakta hai.

Halaanke kuch log yeh bhi soch rahe hain ke Fed ka aggressive rate cut bhi aasakta hai. Agar yeh hota hai, to dollar weaken ho sakta hai aur EUR/USD upward movement kar sakta hai. Market ka iss waqt bohot zyada economic data par depend karna zaroori hai. Kal aane wale CPI report se humein clear signal milega ke inflation kis level par hai aur uske mutabiq Fed ka agla qadam kya hoga.

Lekin ab tak ke trend se yeh lagta hai ke majority logon ka rujhan south ki taraf hai. EUR/USD ka downward movement ziada probable hai, lekin agar ECB bohot bara rate cut karta hai, to dollar ko mazid strength mil sakti hai aur EUR/USD neeche gir sakta hai. Fed ke meetings aur ECB ke decisions iss pair ke future movements mein critical role play karenge.

Iss dauran, humay market ka closely observation karna chahiye. Yeh bhi dekha jaana zaroori hai ke market ka reaction kya hota hai jab Fed aur ECB apne decisions announce karte hain. Agar inflation data bohot zyada high ata hai, to Fed shayad apni interest rates ko aggressively ghataye. Aur agar inflation under control hota hai, to Fed apne rates ko dheere dheere ghatayega, jo ke dollar ko weaken karega aur EUR/USD ko upward push dega.

EUR/USD ka currency brace abhi apni recent kamiyabi ko barqarar rakhne mein mushkilat ka samna kar raha hai. Do din ki positive movement ke baad, ye brace Friday ke US session mein aik narrow trading band mein chalta raha hai. Is waqt, spot prices 1.1180 ke critical level se thoda upar hain, aur dealers US se aane wale important economic data ka intezaar kar rahe hain. Aakhri update ke mutabiq, EUR/USD takreeban 1.1140 par trade kar raha hai.

Aage dekhte hue, Euro bulls crucial resistance levels ki taraf dekh rahe hain, jahan recent high 1.1200 aur July 2023 ka peak 1.1276 aik ahm target hain. Upar ki taraf, 1.1100 ka psychological support level kisi bhi downtrend ke khilaf aik barrier banne ki umeed hai. Ye resistance aur support levels ke darmiyan ka balance brace ki near-term performance mein ehtiyaat bhara optimism darshata hai.

EUR/USD ke fundamentals ki baat karain toh recent data Eurozone mein ongoing economic challenges ko dikhata hai, khas taur par Germany aur France jaise sabse bade economies mein. Germany ka industrial output July mein 2.4% ka significant girawat dekhta hai, jabke sirf 0.3% ki kami ki umeed thi. France ne bhi downturn report kiya, jahan industrial production 0.5% tak ghat gaya. Ye disappointing numbers bearish outlook ko janam dete hain, jaisa ke Reuters ki survey mein dekha gaya, jahan 85 economists ka kehna hai ke European Central Bank (ECB) agle meetings mein interest rate cuts ka faisla kar sakta hai.

In economic struggles ko dekhte hue, kai ECB officials ab interest rate cuts ki taraf raah dekh rahe hain. ECB ke Executive Board member Piero Cipollone ne recent interview mein kaha ke "ECB ka stance bohot restrictive ho sakta hai." Ye sentiment Eurozone ki economic line ke bare mein barhti hui chinta ko darshata hai aur financial policy mein tabdeeliyon ki sambhavna ko samjhta hai.

Technical outlook ko samjhte hue, halankeh 1.1150 par earnings ko barqarar rakhne mein kami dekhne ko mili, phir bhi EUR/USD ka near-term outlook cautious bullish hai. Ye brace 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke aas-paas support bana raha hai, jo ke 1.1157 par hai. Iske ilawa, 50-day aur 100-day EMAs, jo ke 1.1144 aur 1.1135 par hain, upar ki taraf trend kar rahe hain, jo future growth ki sambhavna darshata hai.

Technical indicators ek mixed picture dikhate hain. 14-day Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) 60.00 se neeche chala gaya hai jabke pehle ye 75.00 par tha. Is decline ka matlab ye hai ke momentum mein thodi kami aa rahi hai, aur dealers ko aane wale economic data aur market developments ko dekhte hue apne positions ko reassess karne ki zarurat hai.

Price puri European trading session mein stagnant rahi, aur phir US session ke aghaz par ek jazbaati tezi expected thi. Us waqt, US ne NonFarm Payrolls, unemployment rates, aur average earnings ke reports publish kiye. In reports ko wazeh tor par interpreter karna mushkil tha kyun ke unemployment rate thoda kam hua magar forecast ke andar hi raha; NonFarms ki tadaad forecast se thodi kam thi magar pehli value se zyada thi; wages mein izafa hua, jo ke Federal Reserve ke taraf se monetary policy ke aggressive easing ke chances ko kuch kam karta hai. Market ne in data ko “shara'iti tor par positive” samjha, aur dollar thoda barh gaya. Lekin yeh reports dollar ke liye koi khaas achay prospects nahi kholte. Labor market aur unemployment ke data ab bhi umeedon par pura nahi utarte, jo ke Fed ko kam az kam ek ya do dafa key rate kam karne par majboor karenge. Market ne in "ek ya do dafa" ke rate cuts ko pehle hi price mein shamil kar liya hai, magar ab bhi zyadatar aggressive policy easing ka intezar kar raha hai. Jumay ko 5-minute time frame par pehle poori flat thi, phir turbulence dekha gaya. US trading session ke dauran, naye traders sirf do sell signals par kaam kar sakte thay jo ke level 1.1132 ke qareeb aaye, kyun ke yeh sabse accurate thay. Magar macroeconomic background ka asar kafi zyada tha, toh 1.1132 ka level surpass ho sakta tha. 1.1091 ke level par ek hi waqt mein chaar trading signals bane, magar sabhi inaccurate aur contradictory thay. **Monday ko kaise trade karein:** Hourly time frame par, EUR/USD pair ne apni ascending trend line ke neeche consolidation ki hai, aur pehli dafa bohat arsay baad ek downward trend banane ka mauqa hai jo logical aur tamam analysis factors ke mutabiq hoga. Lekin afsos ke sath, illogical dollar sales jaldi se dobara shuru ho sakti hain downward correction ke baad, kyun ke kisi ko nahi pata ke market kab tak Fed ki monetary policy easing ko price mein shamil karta rahega, jo ke ab tak shuru nahi hui. Market ab tak takreeban tamam aane wale rate cuts ko price mein shamil kar raha hai

EUR/USD ka currency brace abhi apni recent kamiyabi ko barqarar rakhne mein mushkilat ka samna kar raha hai. Do din ki positive movement ke baad, ye brace Friday ke US session mein aik narrow trading band mein chalta raha hai. Is waqt, spot prices 1.1180 ke critical level se thoda upar hain, aur dealers US se aane wale important economic data ka intezaar kar rahe hain. Aakhri update ke mutabiq, EUR/USD takreeban 1.1140 par trade kar raha hai.

Aage dekhte hue, Euro bulls crucial resistance levels ki taraf dekh rahe hain, jahan recent high 1.1200 aur July 2023 ka peak 1.1276 aik ahm target hain. Upar ki taraf, 1.1100 ka psychological support level kisi bhi downtrend ke khilaf aik barrier banne ki umeed hai. Ye resistance aur support levels ke darmiyan ka balance brace ki near-term performance mein ehtiyaat bhara optimism darshata hai.

EUR/USD ke fundamentals ki baat karain toh recent data Eurozone mein ongoing economic challenges ko dikhata hai, khas taur par Germany aur France jaise sabse bade economies mein. Germany ka industrial output July mein 2.4% ka significant girawat dekhta hai, jabke sirf 0.3% ki kami ki umeed thi. France ne bhi downturn report kiya, jahan industrial production 0.5% tak ghat gaya. Ye disappointing numbers bearish outlook ko janam dete hain, jaisa ke Reuters ki survey mein dekha gaya, jahan 85 economists ka kehna hai ke European Central Bank (ECB) agle meetings mein interest rate cuts ka faisla kar sakta hai.

In economic struggles ko dekhte hue, kai ECB officials ab interest rate cuts ki taraf raah dekh rahe hain. ECB ke Executive Board member Piero Cipollone ne recent interview mein kaha ke "ECB ka stance bohot restrictive ho sakta hai." Ye sentiment Eurozone ki economic line ke bare mein barhti hui chinta ko darshata hai aur financial policy mein tabdeeliyon ki sambhavna ko samjhta hai.

Technical outlook ko samjhte hue, halankeh 1.1150 par earnings ko barqarar rakhne mein kami dekhne ko mili, phir bhi EUR/USD ka near-term outlook cautious bullish hai. Ye brace 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke aas-paas support bana raha hai, jo ke 1.1157 par hai. Iske ilawa, 50-day aur 100-day EMAs, jo ke 1.1144 aur 1.1135 par hain, upar ki taraf trend kar rahe hain, jo future growth ki sambhavna darshata hai.

Technical indicators ek mixed picture dikhate hain. 14-day Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) 60.00 se neeche chala gaya hai jabke pehle ye 75.00 par tha. Is decline ka matlab ye hai ke momentum mein thodi kami aa rahi hai, aur dealers ko aane wale economic data aur market developments ko dekhte hue apne positions ko reassess karne ki zarurat hai.

EUR/USD ki currency joṛi filhal apne haaliye munafa par aage barhne ki koshish kar rahi hai. Do din ki positive movement ke baad, joṛi Friday ki US session mein ek tang trading range mein ghoom rahi hai. Is waqt, spot prices 1.1180 ke aham level se thodi upar hain, aur dealers US se aham economic data ke release ka intezaar kar rahe hain. Aakhri update ke mutabiq, EUR/USD 1.1140 ke aas-paas trade kar raha hai.

Aane wale waqt mein, Euro ke bulls aham resistance levels ki taraf dekh rahe hain, jismein 1.1200 ka haal hi ka high aur July 2023 ka peak 1.1276 shamil hain. Dusri taraf, 1.1100 ki psychological support level kisi bhi neeche ki movement ke khilaf ek buffer dene ki umeed hai. Yeh resistance aur support levels ka balance nazar aata hai, jo ke aane wale waqt mein joṛi ki performance ke liye cautious optimism ko darshata hai.

**EUR/USD ke Buniyadi Pehlu**

Haal hi ke data se yeh saaf hai ke Eurozone mein ongoing economic challenges hain, khaaskar iski do badi economies mein. Germany ki industrial production July mein 2.4% ki significant kami ke sath aayi, jab ke expected decline sirf 0.3% thi. France ne bhi downturn report kiya, jahan industrial output 0.5% tak gir gaya. Yeh disappointing numbers bearish outlook ki taraf le ja rahe hain, jaisa ke Reuters ke ek survey mein 85% economists ne yeh predict kiya ke European Central Bank (ECB) agle meetings mein interest rates cut karega.

In economic struggles ke madde nazar, kai ECB officials iss waqt ki market situation se mutma'in nazar aa rahe hain. ECB ke Executive Board member Piero Cipollone ne ek recent interview mein concerns ka izhar karte hue kaha ke "yahan yeh haqeeqat hai ke (ECB) ki policy bohot restrictive ho sakti hai." Yeh sentiment Eurozone ki economic situation ke bare mein badhti hui fikar ko darshata hai aur financial policy mein tabdeeli ki zarurat ko highlight karta hai.

**Technical Outlook**

Halankeh EUR/USD ne 1.1150 ki level ke upar munafa barqarar rakhne mein nakami dikhai hai, lekin qareeb-muddat ka outlook cautiously positive hai. Joṛi ne 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke aas-paas support establish kiya hai, jo ke 1.1157 par hai. Iske ilawa, long-term indicators jaise 50-day aur 100-day EMAs, jo ke 1.1144 aur 1.1135 par hain, upar ki taraf jhuke hue hain, jo future growth ki possibility ko darshata hai. Iske saath, currency joṛi hourly chart par ek Rising Channel mein apni jagah banaye hue hai, jo positive momentum ko indicate karta hai.

Technical indicators EUR/USD joṛi ke liye mixed picture paish karte hain. 14-day Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) 60.00 ke niche aa gaya hai, jab ke yeh 75.00 ke aas-paas overbought status par tha. Yeh kami potential cooling off in momentum ko darshati hai, jo traders ko aane wale economic data aur market developments ke hawale se apni positions ka dobara jaiza lene par majboor kar sakti hai.

### EUR/USD H4 Market Analysis

EUR/USD ka jorha is haftay bullish zone ki taraf barhne ki koshish ki, lekin yeh upar ki taraf apni taqat ko barqarar nahi rakh saka. Price ne 1.1163 ka high dekha, lekin iske baad selling pressure ka samna karna pada, jo ke aakhir haftay tak correction ka sabab bana. Lekin, buyers ne pehle se hi 100-period simple moving average ke upar candlestick ko push kiya tha, jo ke pichle haftay ki strong bullish trend ki nishani hai. Is basis par, aasha hai ke agle haftay price ka upar ki taraf barhne ka silsila jaari rahega, aur yeh 100-period simple moving average zone se door ja sakta hai.

Filhal jo price movement hai, wo upward trend ko darshata hai, aur mazeed faida uthane ka mauqa hai. Pichle haftay se buyers ki taqat bohot zyada nazar aayi hai, jo ke bullish trend ke aage barhne ki sambhavna ko barhati hai. Jab sellers ne price ko neeche girane ki koshish ki, to yeh zyada der tak nahi chali, kyunki price phir se upar gaya. Is hafte ki shuruat mein, zyada buyers ne bade quantities mein kharidari ki, jisse price phir se barhne laga.

Agle haftay ke liye, umeed hai ke price apne upward trend ko wapas le aayegi. Technically, market mein ab bhi izafa dekhne ko mil sakta hai, kyunki weekly aur monthly charts bullish candlesticks dikhate hain. Trading ka option yeh hai ke Buy position lena agle haftay ke liye ab bhi feasible hai. Agar price agle haftay 1.1191 tak pohanchti hai, to yeh mazeed barh sakti hai aur shayad 1.1264 ke price zone tak bhi ja sakti hai.

### Trading Recommendation: BUY (4 Hour Chart)

Meri raaye hai ke signs yeh darshate hain ke buyers EUR/USD ki price ko unche levels tak le jane ke liye taiyar hain, kyunki price pichle haftay bhi bullish trend ki taraf barh rahi thi. Isliye, agle haftay trading par dhyan dena chahiye jo ke upward trend par hai. Downward correction sirf 100-period simple moving average zone tak hi aasani se aa sakti hai, uske baad upar ki taraf barhne ka mauqa ban sakta hai.

Agle trading plan ke liye, main un bullish opportunities par focus kar raha hoon jo market mein nazar aati hain. Agar rising price 1.1200 zone ko cross kar leti hai, to main Buy position kholne ka faisla karunga. Is upward trend ka target ho sakta hai ke price area 1.1266 tak pahunch jaaye. Ideal Stoploss 1.1162 ke area mein rakhna chahiye.