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Technical Analysis of EUR/USD
Pichle trading week mein, euro aur neeche gir gaya, takreeban reversal levels ko todta huwa, lekin hafte ke akhir mein dobara izafa shuru ho gaya. Ibtida mein, price 1.1033 level se neeche gir gayi, jo ek reversal ka ishara tha, lekin phir achanak 1.1121 level tak recovery shuru ho gayi. Is tarah, jo expected sustainable development ka scenario tha, wo pura nahi ho saka, aur target territory ab bhi kaam kar rahi hai. Issi dauran, price chart ek trend area se doosray trend area tak move kar raha hai, jo ke trend uncertainty ka zyada level zahir karta hai.

Aaj ke technical picture par nazar dalain, to 4-hour chart ke qareeb dekhte hain ke pair psychological resistance barrier 1.1100 ke neeche settle ho gaya, jo ke 50-day simple moving average ke qareeb hai aur mazeed strength ko add kar raha hai. Doosri taraf, hum dekhte hain ke 14-day momentum indicator ab bhi positive signals le raha hai, jo aane wale waqt mein ek uptrend ka aghaz support karta hai. Price psychological resistance barrier 1.1100 ke upar stable ho gayi hai, jo ke pair mein short-term izafa ka sabab ban raha hai, jisme targets 1.1130 se shuru ho kar 1.1165 tak ja rahe hain. Iske bar’aks, agar pair 1.1040 ke support ke neeche jaata hai, to isse girawat ke zyada chances hain. Correction ke targets 1.0990 aur 1.0950 hain. Chart ko neeche dekhein:

Pair filhal weekly high ke thoda upar trade kar raha hai. Key support area kafi pressure mein raha aur takreeban toota, lekin aakhri lamhe mein quotes ko wapas kheench liya, jo ke current growth vector ko barqarar rakhta hai. Growth ko jari rakhne ke liye price ko 1.1121 ke upar confidently consolidate karna hoga, jahan main support area ka sarhad hai. Is area ka successful retest aur uske baad rebound ek naye upward move ka mauka dega, jisme target 1.1283 aur 1.1373 ke darmiyan hoga.




Jaisa ke hum dekhte hain, instrument trading session ke ikhtitami lamhon mein ek positive outlook ki taraf mudne ki koshish karta hai. Tareekhi tor par, buyers ne Supply Zone ke qareeb 1.114 par break through kiya hai, aur agar bulls Bear Zone ke upar apni position bana sakte hain aur usay barqarar rakhen, to short-term profit targets ke sath buy trades mein entry ka mauka mil sakta hai aur PPD ke buniyad par market mein shamil hon sakte hain. Ye 1.117 ke resistance level se milta hai, jo daily range ke andar hai. Is surat mein stop order offer area ke neeche hoga. Agar bears ne isay tod diya aur apni jagah bana li to hum sale
Agar price pivot level 1.1033 ke neeche girti hai, to current scenario cancel ho jayega.

EUR/USD 1.1150 ke upar chala gaya jab dollar kamzor ho gaya Fed ke char saal mein pehli rate cut ke baad. Mazeed easing ki market expectations euro ke upward momentum ko dollar ke muqable mein support kar rahi hain.
1.12 par key resistance agar toota to aur gains ka ishara de sakta hai, jabke support 1.1075 aur 1.1125 ke darmiyan bana hua hai. Kya aap is waqt ke market volatility se deal karne ke liye koi faidemand trading ideas talash kar rahe hain? AI InvestingPro ke selected stock winners ko mahine ke sirf $9 se bhi kam mein unlock karein! EUR/USD ne Thursday ko European session mein 1.1150 ke upar chadhai ki, jo ke US dollar ke kamzor hone ki wajah se support mila jab traders ne Fed ki significant rate cut ko hazam kiya aur mazeed easing measures ki umeed ki.

USD, jo ke DXY USD Index ke zariye track kiya jata hai, 100.70 se neeche gir gaya jab ke apne halia weekly high 101.50 ke qareeb ko barqarar nahi rakh saka. Fed ka recent qadam chaar saal mein pehli rate cut ko zahir karta hai, jis ne apni key lending rate ko 50 basis points (bps) se kam karke 4.75%-5.00% kar diya. Ye aham reduction policymakers ke labor market ko mehfooz rakhne ke iraday ko zahir karta hai aur 2% inflation target ki taraf progress mein unke aitmaad ko dikhata hai.

Market largely loose monetary policy ka move expect kar raha tha, isliye euro pichle hafte dollar ke muqable mein apna upward trajectory barqarar rakha. Halanke Fed Chairman Jerome Powell ke remarks ne ibtida mein dollar ko support kiya, lekin aakhir mein wo EUR/USD ke bullish outlook ko badalne mein kamyab nahi huye.

Fed ke policy easing ke approach par labor market ki mushkilat ke dauran criticism ne kuch market participants mein fikar ko janam diya hai. Apni taqreer mein, Powell ne in critics ka jawab diya ke unki moderate approach ne inflation mein noticeable drop ka sabab diya hai.

Halanke inflation ab bhi 2% target se upar hai, Powell ne recent pullback ka khush aamdi keh kar employment data ke buniyad par policy ko adjust karne ke irada zahir kiya. Is stance ne saal ke akhir tak aur kam az kam 50 basis points rate cut ki umeed ko mazid barhaya, jo ke dollar ki kamzori ko jari rakhta hai. Is dauran, Eurozone se positive inflation data ECB (European Central Bank) ki gradual rate-cutting cycle ko maintain karne ki salahiyat ko reinforce karta hai, jo EUR/USD ko mazeed support faraham karta hai.

Technical view: EUR/USD Fed ke baad tezi se move karta hai. Haliya price action ye confirm karta hai ke EUR/USD ne partial uptrend correction complete kar liya hai. Pair ko 1.10 level ke qareeb support mila aur kal ke volatility ke baad apna uptrend jari rakhte hue aur bulandiyon tak pohanchresistance barrier 1.1100 ke neeche settle ho gaya, jo ke 50-day simple moving average ke qareeb hai aur mazeed strength ko add kar raha hai. Doosri taraf, hum dekhte hain ke 14-day momentum indicator ab bhi positive signals le raha hai, jo aane wale waqt mein ek uptrend ka aghaz support karta hai. Price psychological resistance barrier 1.1100 ke upar stable ho gayi hai, jo ke pair mein short-term izafa ka sabab ban raha hai, jisme targets 1.1130 se shuru ho kar 1.1165 tak ja rahe hain. Iske bar’aks, agar pair 1.1040 ke support ke neeche gaya.

EUR/USD ki real-time pricing analysis ko dekhte hue, 4-hour chart ke mutabiq, bulls upward trend ko dobara shuru karne ki koshish kar rahe hain. Price 1/1 angle ke upar aur 25% support level at 1.1068 ke upar hai, jo ke ek overall bullish trend aur kamzor bear market ko reflect karta hai. Price 1.1151 ke high ke neeche hai, jo ke suggest karta hai ke bulls shayad is resistance ko break karne ki koshish karenge. Isliye, kuch consolidation ke baad bullish movement ki umeed hai. Kal, sellers ne wapas aakarshan dikhaya, lekin pehle se kamzor, jisse close kaafi favourable nahi tha. Buyers pehle bech rahe hain phir kharid rahe hain, lekin low volume ke saath, shayad bulls bears ko overpower na kar saken. Hourly chart bearish movement ko dikhata hai, jo ke lagatar downward waves se represent hoti hai. Price reversal 1.1048–1.1007 zone ke aas-paas ho sakta hai.


EUR/USD ke scenario ko dekhte hue, price naye banaye gaye resistance 1.1139 ke neeche trade kar rahi hai. Ye downward trend ka continuation signal karta hai. Resistance ka retest ho chuka hai, jo ke selling ka mauka provide karta hai. Trading algorithm ke mutabiq, stop loss resistance range ke beyond rakha gaya hai taake kisi bhi false breakout se bachaa ja sake. Ye strategy protection aur risk exposure ko kam karti hai. Pehla target support level 1.1112 hai, jahan stop loss ko position ko secure karne ke liye rakha jayega. 1.1089 par ek hissa position ko profit ke liye close kiya jayega, aur primary target critical support 1.1037 hai. Profit-to-risk ratio ab bhi favorable hai. Price ab bhi daily chart par familiar range mein move kar rahi hai. Do din pehle, buyers ne seller ke daily candle ko challenge karne mein kaafi mehnat ki.

Hamara guftagu EUR/USD currency pair ki live pricing ko decode karne par hai. Choti time frames mein, EUR/USD pair upar ki taraf barh rahi hai aur aaj doosri martaba resistance level 1.1138 ko test kar rahi hai. Warna, haalaat pehle jese hi hain, jese ke pehle discussed kiya tha, jahan similar flight patterns aur possible outcomes hain. Ab ek ahem sawal yeh hai ke kya price Fed data ke release hone se pehle apna local maximum update karegi ya support level 1.1107 tak giraygi. Lekin lagta yeh hai ke pehle ek local highs update hoga. Yeh ya toh resistance levels 1.1199–1.1229 tak push karega ya phir ek corrective decline ka aghaz hoga, jo ke support 1.1046 ko test kar sakta hai. Agar Fed rate ko 0.24% tak kam karta hai, jesa ke forecast hai, toh pair ke exchange rate mein ek mazboot surge ki umeed kam hai. Aham girawat mein waqt lag sakta hai, halan ke fundamental factors ne kaafi arsay se is possibility ki taraf ishara kiya hai.

Overall trend ab bhi upward hai, aur mazeed gains ke liye kaafi space hai. Qareebi targets 1.1149 ke upar hain, aur mujhe lagta hai ke price barhtee rahegi. Upward momentum ab bhi dominant hai. Lekin, dekhna yeh hai ke U.S. market is par kaise react karta hai, khaaskar jab Fed ke faislay samne aayenge. Yeh abhi clear nahi hai ke rate kitna reduce hoga, lekin market ek 0.49% cut ki umeed kar raha hai. Pair kisi bhi direction mein ja sakta hai, is outcome par depend karta hai. Main abhi bhi pullback ka intezaar kar raha hoon, aur agar price 1.110 ke neeche aur khaaskar 1.1049 tak girti hai, toh main un levels par buy position lene ka soch raha hoon. EUR/USD pair din ke opening level 1.1119 aur daily pivot point 1.1121 ke upar trade kar rahi hai. Leading indicators upward movement signal kar rahe hain, aur price MA71 trend line ke upar trade kar rahi hai, jahan volume aam tor par khatam hota hai.

NZD/USD currency pair ke price changes ka tajziya karenge. Chaliye dekhte hain ke technical analysis kya suggest karta hai. Moving averages strong sell ka signal de rahe hain, technical indicators bhi selling recommend kar rahe hain, aur overall outlook bhi sell ka hai. Aaj ke liye sab kuch downward trend ke continuation ki taraf ishara kar raha hai, lekin final decision lena zaroori hoga. Saath hi koi important news releases ko bhi dekhna hoga. OPEC ne apni monthly report release ki hai, aur US se kuch ahem news aayi hai, lekin ab tak ka forecast neutral hi hai. New Zealand se koi khaas updates nahi hain. Yeh pair zyada likely bearish move kar sakta hai. Possible sales ka target support level 0.6121 ho sakta hai, jabke kisi bhi buying ka target resistance level 0.6154 ho sakta hai. Overall, bearish movement ka chance zyada lag raha hai. Yahan aaj ka trading plan hai. NZD/USD pair ke liye, current level par buying ek option ho sakti hai, lekin yeh reliable tabhi hogi jab kam az kam 201 points ka stop loss rakha jaye aur 799 points ka profit target banaya jaye. Yeh approach tab kaam karegi jab bulls resistance zone 0.6351 aur 0.6391 ke darmiyan breakout karenge, jo ek upward trend ka hissa hai. Is baat ka high probability hai ke bulls yeh achieve karenge, lekin abhi sab kuch market par depend karta hai. Yeh bhi worth mentioning hai ke New Zealand dollar achi position mein hai, jabke US dollar mazid taqatwar ho raha hai. Halankeh kuch pressure bearish side par hai, humein 0.6126 se neeche dip dekhne ko mila, lekin koi strong hold nahi tha, jo ek false breakout ka ishara hai. Dukh ki baat yeh hai ke immediate targets ki kami hai. Phir bhi, aage chal kar US dollar kis tarah trade karta hai, yeh bohot important hoga. Overall situation thodi complex hai. Main ab bhi thoda cautious hoon, lekin agar hum 0.6131 tak wapas aate hain, toh main buy karne ki koshish kar sakta hoon, utasalar jab stop loss minimal ho

Fed ke chairman ne pehle hi August mein yeh confirm kar diya tha ke September se interest rates mein kami aayegi, is liye jobs report itni kamzor nahi thi ke investors ko 50 basis point cut ka andaza ho. Is wajah se dollar mein halki recovery hui. Friday ki soft jobs report ne rate markets mein pehle to halchal machai, lekin phir sentiment aur sakke par shift ho gaya, aur aglay FOMC meeting ke liye 25 basis point cut ki umeed barh gayi.
Lekin ab umeedain barh rahi hain ke is saal ke baad aur aglay saal ke shuruat mein aur zyada aggressive rate cuts ho sakte hain, utsalar ek Fed official ne “frontloading” ko kam karne ka mashwara diya hai. Lekin US ke kamzor data, girti hui oil prices, aur dovish Fed turn ke bawajood, EUR/USD ka forecast abhi bhi thora bullish hai jab tak ke is hafte ke aane wale macro events mein koi bara surprise na ho. Hum baat kar rahe hain aaj ke latest US inflation report aur kal ke ECB ke rate faislay ki. Pichlay hafte ke jobs data ke baad, mein abhi bhi CPI release se pehle dollar ke bare mein bearish hun. Market rate cut ki size par tafreeq mein hai, aur koi clear consensus nahi hai. Fed, jo aglay hafte apni meeting mein dollar ko ziyata hilne se rokna chahta hai, umeed kar raha hoga ke is hafte ka inflation data market uncertainty ko settle karne mein madadgar hoga.

Jabke US CPI Fed ke target ke qareeb aa raha hai, Powell pehle hi is baat ka ishara de chuke hain ke September 18 FOMC meeting mein rate cuts ka tasdeeq karenge. Ye CPI report is meeting se pehle aakhri bara data point hoga jo policymakers ko guide karega ke 50 basis point cut karna hai ya aam 25 basis point ke sath rehna hai.

Is liye, yeh report kafi tawajju hasil kar sakti hai, special agar numbers expectations se kaafi alag niklay. Inflation chaar mahine tak silsilewar slow hui hai, aur July mein 2.9% year-on-year tak pohanch gayi, jo March 2021 ke baad sab se kam hai. Umeed ki ja rahi hai ke August mein yeh mazeed kam hoke 2.6% ho jayegi, jabke core CPI ko 3.2% par stable rehne ki umeed hai year-on-year comparison meinmein

EUR/USD ke movement par jo analysis kiya gaya hai, us main dekha ja raha hai ke euro ne 1.1150 ka level cross kar liya hai jab US dollar weak hua, specially Federal Reserve ke rate cut ke baad. Market mein expectation hai ke agay aur bhi easing measures ho sakti hain, jo euro ko mazeed strength de rahi hai against the dollar.
Is waqt jo major resistance level hai wo 1.12 par hai, aur agar yeh level break hota hai to hum aur bhi gains dekh sakte hain. Support zone abhi 1.1075 aur 1.1125 ke darmiyan hai. Agar aap trading karna chahtay hain to yeh level bohot important hain.
DXY USD Index, jo US dollar ko track karta hai, wo 100.70 ke neeche aa gaya hai jab wo apnay weekly high 101.50 ko hold nahi kar saka. Federal Reserve ne apni lending rate ko 50 basis points se cut kar diya hai, jo ab 4.75%-5.00% range mein aa gayi hai. Yeh decision dikhata hai ke policymakers labor market ko support karna chahte hain aur unko inflation ke 2% target ke baray mein confidence hai. Euro zone se aane walay inflation data ne European Central Bank ko bhi support diya hai ke wo apni rate-cutting cycle ko dheere dheere continue kar sakein, jo EUR/USD ko aur upar le ja sakta hai. EUR/USD ke overall trend main abhi tak koi tabdeeli nahi aayi. Upward movement abhi bhi dominant hai, aur mazeed growth ka potential hai jab tak 1.1151 ka critical level breach nahi hota. Is waqt pair narrow range main 1.1100 ke upar trade kar raha hai, lekin kuch pressure ki wajah se price bearish ho sakti hai. Yeh development achi hai, kyun ke ek significant pullback hamesha trading ke liye acha hota hai. Lekin dollar ka impact aaj bohot aham rahega, khas tor par Federal Reserve ke actions ke baad. Market kisi bhi direction main move kar sakta hai, aur yeh narrow range shaayad upcoming news ka pehla signal ho. Powell ki remarks bhi next move par important asar dalenge.
Despite is uncertainty ke, mera outlook bullish hai, aur mujhe lagta hai ke price upar jaayegi. Lekin agar price 1.111 ke neeche girti hai, khaaskar 1.1051 region tak, to main buying ka sochunga un levels par.

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
Wall Street ka session achi position par khatam hua, jab ke US dollar mazid mazboot raha US Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) mein izafa hone ki wajah se. August ka Core CPI 0.3% MoM barha, jo ke pehle maheene mein 0.2% tha, aur yeh umeedon se zyada raha. Baqi ke inflation ke numbers, jaise ke annual aur monthly statistics, aur yearly core CPI, umeed ke mutabiq rahe.

EUR/USD ke girne ko European Central Bank (ECB) ki ane wali monetary policy decision ne roka, jab yeh pair apne rozana ke low 1.1001 ko touch kar ke foran 1.1010-1.1020 area mein wapas aya.

EUR/USD ke girne ka ek aur sabab yeh tha ke money market futures traders ne agle haftay ke liye Federal Reserve (Fed) ke 50 basis points (bps) rate cut ke chances ko 40% se 15% tak ghata diya, jab ke 25 bps ke chances 66% se barh kar 85% ho gaye.

Eurozone ke economic calendar mein ECB ka decision focus mein hoga is haftay ke end se pehle. ECB se umeed hai ke yeh rates ko 25 bps se kam karega, jab ke Germany ki inflation YoY 1.9% par aa gayi hai, aur PMI readings ek economic slowdown ko zahir karti hain. Is ke bawajood, ECB ke hawks umeed kar rahe hain ke kuch inflation components umeed se zyada sticky honge, is liye woh resist karenge.

Forward guidance ke hawale se, Reuters ke zariye sources ne bataya ke September ke baad ECB ke monetary policy decisions zyada mushkil honge.

Doosri taraf, US economic calendar mein Initial Jobless Claims report release ki jayegi jo September 7 ko khatam hone wale haftay ke liye hogi, aur Producer Price Index (PPI) bhi release kiya jayega.

Technical Analysis:

EUR/USD ka neutral bias hai, lekin yeh abhi bhi 1.1000 figure se upar hai, jo ECB ke decision ke intezar mein hai. Momentum bearish direction mein shift ho gaya hai, jaisa ke Relative Strength Index (RSI) mein dekha gaya, lekin uska slope upar ki taraf hai.

Agar EUR/USD 11 September ke peak 1.1054 ko cross kar leta hai, toh yeh pair 1.1100 mark tak ja sakta hai. Agar yeh pair 1.1000 se neeche girta hai, toh pehla defense line bulls ke liye 50-day moving average (DMA) par 1.0967 hoga, jo ke 17 July ka swing high support ban gaya hai 1.0948 par.

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
Wall Street ka session achi position par khatam hua, jab ke US dollar mazid mazboot raha US Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) mein izafa hone ki wajah se. August ka Core CPI 0.3% MoM barha, jo ke pehle maheene mein 0.2% tha, aur yeh umeedon se zyada raha. Baqi ke inflation ke numbers, jaise ke annual aur monthly statistics, aur yearly core CPI, umeed ke mutabiq rahe.

EUR/USD ke girne ko European Central Bank (ECB) ki ane wali monetary policy decision ne roka, jab yeh pair apne rozana ke low 1.1001 ko touch kar ke foran 1.1010-1.1020 area mein wapas aya.

EUR/USD ke girne ka ek aur sabab yeh tha ke money market futures traders ne agle haftay ke liye Federal Reserve (Fed) ke 50 basis points (bps) rate cut ke chances ko 40% se 15% tak ghata diya, jab ke 25 bps ke chances 66% se barh kar 85% ho gaye.

Eurozone ke economic calendar mein ECB ka decision focus mein hoga is haftay ke end se pehle. ECB se umeed hai ke yeh rates ko 25 bps se kam karega, jab ke Germany ki inflation YoY 1.9% par aa gayi hai, aur PMI readings ek economic slowdown ko zahir karti hain. Is ke bawajood, ECB ke hawks umeed kar rahe hain ke kuch inflation components umeed se zyada sticky honge, is liye woh resist karenge.

Forward guidance ke hawale se, Reuters ke zariye sources ne bataya ke September ke baad ECB ke monetary policy decisions zyada mushkil honge.

Doosri taraf, US economic calendar mein Initial Jobless Claims report release ki jayegi jo September 7 ko khatam hone wale haftay ke liye hogi, aur Producer Price Index (PPI) bhi release kiya jayega.

Technical Analysis:

EUR/USD ka neutral bias hai, lekin yeh abhi bhi 1.1000 figure se upar hai, jo ECB ke decision ke intezar mein hai. Momentum bearish direction mein shift ho gaya hai, jaisa ke Relative Strength Index (RSI) mein dekha gaya, lekin uska slope upar ki taraf hai.

Agar EUR/USD 11 September ke peak 1.1054 ko cross kar leta hai, toh yeh pair 1.1100 mark tak ja sakta hai. Agar yeh pair 1.1000 se neeche girta hai, toh pehla defense line bulls ke liye 50-day moving average (DMA) par 1.0967 hoga, jo ke 17 July ka swing high support ban gaya hai 1.0948 par

Hum EUR/USD currency pair ki price action ka tajziya kar rahe hain. Euro-dollar market mai ek noticeable downturn dekha gaya, jo meri prediction se mukhtalif tha. Maine umeed ki thi ke upward trend ho ga aur price resistance level 1.11585 tak pohanchay gi. Magar price Tuesday ke din girta raha aur support level 1.11108 ke kareeb close hua. Aaj ke liye bhi maine growth ki prediction ki thi, lekin price abhi tak neeche hai aur day ke opening level ke qareeb hai. Agar aaj ka close 1.11108 se neeche hota hai, to kal ke liye focus support 1.10604 tak girne par ho ga. Agar price 1.11108 ke current level par ya upar close karta hai, to phir kal ke liye priority yeh ho gi ke price 1.11585 resistance ki taraf barhne ka potential rakhta hai. Ek aur possibility yeh hai ke market upar ki taraf niklay aur 1.1201 high ko break kar kay sellers ko squeeze kar day. Uske baad U.S. Federal Reserve ke rate cut par ek reaction dekhne ko mil sakta hai.
Monday ko EUR/USD currency pair mai rise dekha gaya, jo dollar par selling pressure ka nateeja tha. Is upward movement ne pair ko dobara 1.1100 mark ke upar le gaya, jo ke pichlay hafte ke dauran chaotically move kar raha tha. Risk sentiment nayi haftay ke aaghaz par strong hai, aur investors ka Fed ke rate cut ki umeed par confidence hai. European economic calendar mai zyada kuch nahi hai, bas ECB President Christine Lagarde ka appearance dekhne layak ho ga. Magar fiber market ka zyada daromadar U.S. central bank data par rahega is haftay.

Tuesday ko U.S. retail sales release hongi, magar substantial volatility ki umeed tab tak nahi hai jab tak data expectations se bohat zyada different na ho. August ke liye U.S. retail sales growth slow hone ki umeed hai 0.2%, jab ke July mai yeh 1.0% thi. Core retail sales, jo autos ko exclude karti hain, 0.3% tak gir sakti hain, jo pehle 0.4% thi. Investors yakin rakhte hain ke Fed Wednesday ko ek naya rate cut cycle start karega, aur ab debate cut ki timing se zyada uske magnitude par ho raha hai. Interest rate traders lagbhag 60% chances dekh rahe hain ke Fed aakhri chaar saalon mai pehli dafa rates ko 50 basis points se kam karega, jab ke 40% expect karte hain ke yeh cut 25 basis points ka hoga. CME ke FedWatch tool ke mutabiq, traders anticipate kar rahe hain ke December tak 125-150 basis points ke total rate cuts ho sakte hain, aur December 18 tak federal funds rate 400-425 basis points tak pohanchne ke 80% chances hain.

Subha bakhair! Main ne pehle bhi kai dafa kaha hai ke EUR/USD pair ko pending order ke saath bech sakte ho, chahe is thread mein ho ya Classic thread mein. Ab tak yeh trade ek so se zyada points ka munafa de chuka hai, lekin Powell ke kal ke khitaab ke doran, maine apni kuch position partially close ki.

Asli baat yeh hai ke bas intezar karo aur ghair zaroori harkat se bacho! Aam tor par bazar un logon ka saath deta hai jo sabr karte hain. Filhal ke liye mera iraada yeh hai ke euro ko wapas kareedun 1.1050 ke aas paas. Agar hum zyada selling ki baat karein to behtareen level 1.1156 aur 1.1160 ke darmiyan ho sakta hai. Main chahta hoon ke CME reports se in levels ka saboot milay, khaaskar 1.1146 aur 1.1111-1.1116 ke daira mein.

Hamara EUR/USD currency pair kal zyada faida utha kar 1.1156-1.1160 ke thoda upar chala gaya tha jo tumne apne jawab mein mention kiya. Din ka maximum 1.1178 par ban gaya. Kia tumne aur sales ki? Main apni sales khuli rakh raha hoon aur hold kar raha hoon. Phir se, main daily chart ka istemal karunga analysis ke liye. Is chart se yeh maloom hota hai ke price ne 1.1197 par daily channel ki upper boundary ko cross kar liya.

Yeh usool ab bhi barqarar hai ke price neechay aayegi, chahe wo temporarily high bhi ho jaye. Mera andaza hai ke yeh asset daily period ke moving average line tak, jo ke 1.0990 par hai, zaroor aaye ga. Main yahan apni kuch sales adjust karunga. Baki ko thoda aur chalay ga, taake balance ho sake. Yeh abhi tak maximum decline nahi hai. Main samajhta hoon ke price 1.0873 tak ja sakta hai, jo channel ke lower border par hai. Ab main surat-e-haal ke mutabiq decide karunga.

Federal Reserve ke Chairman Jerome Powell ne markets ko tasalli di ke 50 basis points ka aggressive rate cut ghair-fikri faisla nahi tha, balki yeh economy ko boost karne ke liye ek strategic step tha taake US labor market ko support diya ja sake. Powell ne is cut ko "recalibration" ke taur par dubara brand kiya, aur investors ne is par dollar se paisa nikal kar high-yielding assets mein invest kiya. EUR/USD abhi bhi 1.1100 ke upar trade kar raha hai, lekin ab tak koi khaas momentum nahi bana. Yeh pair exhaustion ki taraf ja sakta hai, lekin abhi bhi upper-cycle chart mein hai. Lagta hai ke downside pressure 50-day EMA, jo ke 1.1000 ke paas hai, ko poora correct karne mein muskil ka shikar hoga.

EUR/USD

Euro, jo ke abhi major currencies ke muqable mein underperform kar raha hai, ne Wednesday ki New York trading session ke dauran apne recent highs 1.1055 se significant decline dekha. Market sentiment abhi zyada ter ECB ke September mein ek aur interest rate cut ki umeed ke asar mein hai. Is move ke anticipation ne intensity gain ki hai jab inflation rates gir rahe hain, jo ke yeh suggest karta hai ke yeh rate-cutting cycle September ke baad bhi barh sakta hai. Abhi spot price 1.1016 ke aas-paas trade kar raha hai.

ECB ke potential interest rate decisions ka andaza lagane ke liye investors German aur Eurozone HICP data ka closely jaiza lenge jo Thursday aur Friday ko release honge. Analysts expect karte hain ke Eurozone ka annual headline HICP, jo ke overall inflation ko measure karta hai, 2.3% tak decelerate karega, jab ke core HICP, jo ke volatile items ko exclude karta hai, 2.8% tak moderate hoga.

**EUR/USD ke fundamentals:**ECB ke aur zyada interest rate cuts ki umeed badh gayi hai Eurozone ke economic outlook aur wage growth slowdown ke hawale se barhati hui uncertainties ki wajah se. Hiraan kun baat yeh hai ke Eurozone ki economic activity August mein unexpected upar gayi, flash HCOB PMI report ke mutabiq. Magar yeh uptick ziada ter France mein Olympic Games ki wajah se aayi demand ki wajah se hua. Economists isay temporary boost samajhte hain, naa ke kisi fundamental economic change ko.

ECB ke Chief Economist Philip Lane ne JH Symposium ke dauran Saturday ko yeh kaha ke restrictive monetary policy ki zarurat hai. Lane ne inflation ke khilaf ladai mein ki gayi taraqqi ko acknowledge kiya, magar yeh bhi kaha ke lambi muddat tak success ka koi yaqeen nahi hai. Unki baat ne ECB ke inflationary pressures ko manage karne aur market expectations ko guide karne ke challenges ko ujagar kiya.

**Daily Time Frame Technical Outlook:**

Wednesday ko pair 1.1010 level ke neeche slip kar gaya jab buyers ko upward momentum banaye rakhne mein mushkil hui. Pair abhi 50-day EMA ke upar trade kar raha hai, jo ke 1.0962 par hai, magar agar decline jari rehta hai to price 20-day EMA ke paas wapas aa sakti hai, jo ke 1.1050 ke qareeb hai. EUR/USD buyers ke liye resistance 14-day SMA par 1.1026 ke aas-paas dekhi ja sakti hai.

Pair ko 1.1000 ke crucial psychological level ke breach hone ka khatra hai. Technical indicators jaise ke MACD aur RSI bearish outlook ki taraf ishara karte hain. Agar downward momentum barqarar rehti hai, to traders ko apni positions ka jaiza lena hoga aur potential reversals ke liye hoshiyaar rehna hoga

EUR/USD currency pair ke price behavior ka tajziya kar rahe hain. 4-hour chart par dekhain to bears apni positions mazbooti se barqarar rakhe hue hain, aur lagta hai ke filhaal wapas janay ka koi iraada nahi. Price 1.1068 par 25% support ko break kar chuki hai aur ab 1/1 angle ke upar hai. Mera khayal hai ke bears is level ko target karenge. Main yeh bhi maan raha hoon ke ek temporary upward correction ho sakta hai. EMA (13/5) aur MACD indicators sell ka ishara de rahe hain, jo ke yeh dikhata hai ke consolidation ke baad ek bearish move ho sakta hai. Indicators yeh batate hain ke exchange rate ghat kar 1.0999 tak ja sakta hai recent breakdown ke baad. Koi significant tabdeeli nazar nahi aa rahi; Euro abhi bhi sideways trade kar raha hai, jo ek choti red body wali candle se zahir hai. Wednesday ko EUR/USD pair mein kaafi calm trading thi, halanke US inflation report ko "super-important" samjha ja raha tha. Humne weekend par is report ko "event of the week" kaha tha, magar kuch traders ka reaction hairan kun tha. Mukhtasir mein, dollar bara halanke inflation 2.5% tak gir gayi thi. Pehle har dafa US inflation ke reports se dollar girta tha, chahe report forecast ke baraks hoti ya na hoti, bas inflation girne se dollar bhi girta. Magar kal ek naya waqia dekhne ko mila jo shayad dollar ke do saal ke decline ka end ho sakta hai. Market ne US currency ko kharidna shuru kar diya, halanke inflation 2.5% par aa gayi thi. Pehle se hum yeh keh rahe the ke jab inflation target level ke qareeb aaegi, to Federal Reserve apni monetary policy ko loosen karne ka soch sakta hai. Yeh August ke end mein hua, magar ab paradox yeh hai ke market pichle do saalon se Fed ke rate cuts ko price kar rahi thi. Shayad market ne is factor ko fully price kar liya hai, aur ab inflation ke target ke qareeb honay ke bawajood, Fed ke reasons honge ke woh rates ko ek dafa nahi, balki poori policy easing cycle shuru kar sake. Magar market ne is baat ko pehle hi price kar liya hai

EUR/USD Currency Pair Ki Pricing Behavior Ka Jaiza

Hamara mauzoo is waqt EUR/USD currency pair ke pricing behavior ka analysis hai. Market mein sab ke sab Federal Reserve ke interest rates mein hone wale tabdeeliyon ka intezaar kar rahe hain, aur kal aane wale Consumer Price Index (CPI) report par bhi sab ki tawajjo hai. Yeh report aane ke baad significant movement dekhne ko mil sakti hai. EUR/USD pair yeh intezaar nahi karega ke Fed ka faisla aajaye, balke is dauran bhi kuch na kuch harkaatein zaroor hongi. Iss ke ilawa, European Central Bank (ECB) ka Thursday ko meeting hai, jo ke bohot relevant hai is pair ki future movements ke liye.

Mein ne jab forecast calendar ka jaiza liya to mujhe yeh dekh kar hairani hui ke ECB se 0.6 basis points ki rate reduction ki tawaqo hai, jisse interest rate 4.25% se gir kar 3.64% tak aayega. Agar yeh forecast sach sabit hota hai, to EUR/USD mein ziada downward movement dekhne ko nahi milegi. Lekin is baat ka bhi risk hai ke ECB sirf 0.5 ya 0.2 points se rate reduce kare, jisme EUR/USD ko thodi strength mil sakti hai. Aise mein, ECB ki yeh rate cut dollar ko mazid mazboot karne mein kaam karegi, jab ke EUR/USD ko kamzor kar de gi. Haan, yeh baat lagti hai ke zyada log is waqt south side ke trend ki taraf rujhan rakhte hain.

Fed Ka Faisla Aur Interest Rate Ka Asar

Yeh movement zyada tar Fed ke faislay ki wajah se ho sakti hai, ke jo 25 basis points se interest rates ko neeche laayega. Halaanke kuch din pehle, jab US inflation data ka release hona tha, to 50 basis points ki reduction ki tawaqo thi. Yeh aam baat hai ke jab interest rates girti hain, to national currency ki value bhi girti hai, kyun ke currency ka supply barh jata hai. Yeh kehnay ka matlab hai ke dollar ko 25 basis points ki kami ke saath downward pressure face karna chahiye, jo ke EUR/USD pair ke southward movement ke liye ek umeed bana sakta hai.

Zyada tar market participants ka khayal hai ke dollar ke saath kuch stability aayegi aur EUR/USD southward movement ko face karega. Lekin, Fed ka irada hai ke iss saal ke dauran interest rates ko 100 basis points tak reduce kare aur 2025 tak aur 100 basis points se neeche le aaye. Yeh koi itni buri baat nahi hai ke September mein rates ko 500 basis points se reduce nahi kiya ja raha, balki October mein ya aglay kuch months tak yeh reduction dekhne ko milegi. Mere khyal mein yeh ho sakta hai ke Fed 4 dafa mein 25 basis points ki reduction karay.

Meri Predictions Aur Ainday Ka Mansooba

Meri basic prediction yeh hai ke EUR/USD pair abhi 1.1070 se northward movement karega. Yeh straight upward movement ho sakti hai, aur humay expansion dekhne ko mil sakti hai. Lekin yeh depend karta hai ke upcoming economic data aur Fed ka faisla kis taraf jata hai. Agar Fed interest rates ko bohot zyada nahi ghatata, to shayad dollar thoda stable ho jaye. Aur agar ECB bhi apne interest rates ko aggressively cut karta hai, to EUR/USD pair ko thoda support mil sakta hai.

Halaanke kuch log yeh bhi soch rahe hain ke Fed ka aggressive rate cut bhi aasakta hai. Agar yeh hota hai, to dollar weaken ho sakta hai aur EUR/USD upward movement kar sakta hai. Market ka iss waqt bohot zyada economic data par depend karna zaroori hai. Kal aane wale CPI report se humein clear signal milega ke inflation kis level par hai aur uske mutabiq Fed ka agla qadam kya hoga.

Lekin ab tak ke trend se yeh lagta hai ke majority logon ka rujhan south ki taraf hai. EUR/USD ka downward movement ziada probable hai, lekin agar ECB bohot bara rate cut karta hai, to dollar ko mazid strength mil sakti hai aur EUR/USD neeche gir sakta hai. Fed ke meetings aur ECB ke decisions iss pair ke future movements mein critical role play karenge.

Iss dauran, humay market ka closely observation karna chahiye. Yeh bhi dekha jaana zaroori hai ke market ka reaction kya hota hai jab Fed aur ECB apne decisions announce karte hain. Agar inflation data bohot zyada high ata hai, to Fed shayad apni interest rates ko aggressively ghataye. Aur agar inflation under control hota hai, to Fed apne rates ko dheere dheere ghatayega, jo ke dollar ko weaken karega aur EUR/USD ko upward push dega.

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
Wall Street ka session achi position par khatam hua, jab ke US dollar mazid mazboot raha US Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) mein izafa hone ki wajah se. August ka Core CPI 0.3% MoM barha, jo ke pehle maheene mein 0.2% tha, aur yeh umeedon se zyada raha. Baqi ke inflation ke numbers, jaise ke annual aur monthly statistics, aur yearly core CPI, umeed ke mutabiq rahe.

EUR/USD ke girne ko European Central Bank (ECB) ki ane wali monetary policy decision ne roka, jab yeh pair apne rozana ke low 1.1001 ko touch kar ke foran 1.1010-1.1020 area mein wapas aya.

EUR/USD ke girne ka ek aur sabab yeh tha ke money market futures traders ne agle haftay ke liye Federal Reserve (Fed) ke 50 basis points (bps) rate cut ke chances ko 40% se 15% tak ghata diya, jab ke 25 bps ke chances 66% se barh kar 85% ho gaye.

Eurozone ke economic calendar mein ECB ka decision focus mein hoga is haftay ke end se pehle. ECB se umeed hai ke yeh rates ko 25 bps se kam karega, jab ke Germany ki inflation YoY 1.9% par aa gayi hai, aur PMI readings ek economic slowdown ko zahir karti hain. Is ke bawajood, ECB ke hawks umeed kar rahe hain ke kuch inflation components umeed se zyada sticky honge, is liye woh resist karenge.

Forward guidance ke hawale se, Reuters ke zariye sources ne bataya ke September ke baad ECB ke monetary policy decisions zyada mushkil honge.

Doosri taraf, US economic calendar mein Initial Jobless Claims report release ki jayegi jo September 7 ko khatam hone wale haftay ke liye hogi, aur Producer Price Index (PPI) bhi release kiya jayega.

Technical Analysis:

EUR/USD ka neutral bias hai, lekin yeh abhi bhi 1.1000 figure se upar hai, jo ECB ke decision ke intezar mein hai. Momentum bearish direction mein shift ho gaya hai, jaisa ke Relative Strength Index (RSI) mein dekha gaya, lekin uska slope upar ki taraf hai.

Agar EUR/USD 11 September ke peak 1.1054 ko cross kar leta hai, toh yeh pair 1.1100 mark tak ja sakta hai. Agar yeh pair 1.1000 se neeche girta hai, toh pehla defense line bulls ke liye 50-day moving average (DMA) par 1.0967 hoga, jo ke 17 July ka swing high support ban gaya hai 1.0948 par