Eurusd forum

EUR/USD H4**

Hamari discussion mein, EUR/USD currency pair ki price changes ka analysis karenge. Powell ne ECB forum mein baat ki aur jaise ke aam tor par, US dollar ko neecha gira diya, halanke Lagarde ne unse pehle baat ki thi aur euro ko thodi support di thi. Powell ne kuch naya nahi kaha, lekin EUR/USD ne 1.0739 level ko break kiya aur ab 1.0749 resistance ke qareeb hai. EMA-200 se mark kiya gaya critical resistance level 1.0759 par hai. Yeh clear nahi hai ke market ne Powell ke comments par aisa reaction kyun diya, kyunki unki remarks groundbreaking nahi thi. Unhone kaha ke labor market ab bhi strong hai, inflation 2% ke qareeb nahi hai, aur disinflation ke signs hain. Lagarde ne bhi comment kiya ke inflation sahi direction mein move kar rahi hai, lekin yeh kehna abhi too early hai ke yeh waise hi rahegi. Powell ne emphasize kiya ke Fed apne decisions mein jaldi nahi karega aur US aur Europe ke inflation alag issues hain jo alag approaches ko zaroorat hain. Unki comments ke bawajood, market US dollar ko buy karne mein hesitant hai.
**EUR/USD H4**

Europe mein political developments ne market sentiment ko significantly influence kiya hai, khaaskar European parliamentary elections jo euro mein confidence ko dent kar chuki hai. France ka parliament dissolve karne aur snap elections ke liye decision, jo President Emmanuel Macron ne EU parliament elections mein substantial defeat ke baad liya, market uncertainty ko badha raha hai. Marine Le Pen, jo ek right-leaning conservative politician hain National Rally se, ki victory ka prospect European financial markets mein apprehension create kar raha hai. Le Pen ki policies, jo steep tax cuts, retirement age ko kam karne, aur stringent immigration controls ko include karti hain, France mein kaafi popular ho gayi hain.

Le Pen ki potential victory European financial markets ko pareshani mein daal rahi hai. Unki policies fiscal challenges impose kar sakti hain jab European economic indicators pehle se hi underperform kar rahe hain. Iske ilawa, European Central Bank (ECB) ko rate cuts implement karne mein constraints hain due to persistent inflation issues within the Eurozone.

EUR/USD Market Analysis:
Wednesday's EUR/USD trading session mein buyers ne strong dominance dikha kar market mein zyada entries ki. Unhoon ne successfully support area ko secure kiya, jo ke 1.1110-1.1113 ke price zone par tha, aur sellers ka control khatam kar ke dobara market ko apni qabza mein le liya. Yeh bullish momentum ne EUR/USD ka price higher push kiya, jise Moving Average (MA) indicator ke through Daily time frame par monitor kiya gaya. EUR/USD price abhi bhi MA 50 Red area (1.0858-1.0860) se kaafi door move kar raha hai, jo is baat ki nishani hai ke EUR/USD market abhi bhi ek strong bullish trend mein hai. Is trend ko support karne wale strong bullish candlesticks ne buyers ko advantage diya hai, taake wo EUR/USD pair ka price aur bhi higher le ja sakein, agla target hai strong seller supply resistance area jo ke 1.1280-1.1290 ke price par hai, agle hafte ke trading session mein.

Agle hafte Monday ke trading session mein ek initial bearish correction ho sakta hai, kyunke buyers ko sellers ki taraf se resistance ka samna ho sakta hai jo apna dynamic resistance area 1.1195-1.1199 par maintain karne ki koshish karenge. Is bearish movement ka pehla target buyer support area1.1165-1.1160 par ho sakta hai. Agar price is support area ke neeche nahi ja paata, toh phir price dubara upward bullish trend mein aa sakta hai, aur EUR/USD ka next target strong seller supply resistance area 1.1245-1.1250 tak pohnch sakta hai. Moving Average ko trend strength monitor karne ke liye use karna bohat effective strategy hai, especially jab resistance aur support levels ko identify karna ho. Pending order buy stop aur sell stop strategy bhi agle hafte ke price movements ko anticipate karne ke liye acha plan hai. Umeed hai ke aapki entry expectations ke mutabiq hogi aur maximum profit generate

EUR/USD pair ne Wednesday ko set kiye gaye new high 1.1175 se decline kiya hai 1.1130 par, jab US Dollar (USD) rise hua lekin 2024 ke new low ke qareeb reh gaya. Central currency pair thoda down trade kar raha hai 1.1130 par. US Dollar Index (DXY), jo US dollar ki value ko measures karta hai six other major currencies ke relative, ab 101.00 par trade kar raha hai.

Federal Reserve (Fed) September mein interest rates ko lower karne ki track par hai, US dollar ke liye prognosis abhi bhi bleak hai. Is move se, Fed apni first dovish interest rate decision ko almost four years mein kar raha hai. March 2022 se, US central bank ne tight monetary policy ko pursue kiya hai inflation ko reduce karne ke liye.

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes July 30-31 policy meeting se indicate karte hain ki "vast majority" Fed officials September mein policy-easing ko appropriate samajhte hain, given continued easing inflationary pressures. Yeh market speculation ko strengthen karta hai Fed interest rate cuts ke liye.

FOMC minutes ne bhi reveal kiya ki some decision-makers July se interest rates ko lower karne ke liye prepared the. Investors Fed Chair Jerome Powell ki address ko watch karenge Jackson Hole (JH) Symposium mein Friday ko 14:00 GMT se, interest rates ki direction ke liye clues ke liye. Woh September ke interest rate decreases ki extent aur Fed is year ke potential reductions ke hints bhi dhoondenge.

Investors US flash S&P Global PMI data ko watch karenge August ke liye Thursday ko 13:45 GMT se release hone ke liye. Preliminary PMI data se anticipate kiya ja raha hai ki July mein Composite PMI 54.3 se 53.5 par gir gaya.

Price Evaluation

Investors ki attention Fed Powell ki address par focused hai JH Symposium mein Friday ko, EUR/USD pair Wednesday ke trading range mein trade kar raha hai. Main currency pair year-to-date high 1.1775 par trade kar raha hai, isliye anticipate kiya ja raha hai ki woh apni four-day winning streak ko extend karega. Standard currency pair ne previously momentum gain kiya hai daily time frame breakout ke channel formation se. Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) short-to-long-term trend ko indicate kar rahe hain, upward pointing. 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) upward solid momentum ko indicate karta hai, bullish region 60.00–80.00 mein oscillating. Lekin, momentum indicator overbought zone mein hai, corrective downturn ki probability zyada hai.

Bulls euro mein round-level resistance ko retake karne ki koshish kar rahe hain 1.1200 par, clear break ke baad December 28, 2023 ke high 1.1140 se. Round-level number 1.1100 significant support zone ko serve karega downside par

**EUR/USD Technical Analysis**

Euro ka US Dollar ke muqable mein EUR/USD ka price 1.0922 ke resistance level par ruk gaya hai aur phir se neeche aakar 1.0875 ke aas-paas stable ho gaya hai jab yeh analysis likha ja raha hai. Halankeh Powell ka nazariya pessimistic lag raha hai, lekin euro-dollar is se faida nahi utha pa raha hai. US Federal Reserve ke Chairman Jerome Powell ne apne recent interview mein “dovish” note diya hai, lekin euro ka price in comments se faida nahi utha raha.

EUR/USD exchange rate 1.0900 ke resistance level ke neeche atka hua hai aur US Federal Reserve ke Governor Powell ke shant alfaaz ke bawajood nahi badh raha, jinhon ne kaha tha ke US inflation ka picture behtar ho raha hai aur labor market zyada balanced hai.

Powell ne Economic Club Washington, DC ke saath interview mein US ke inflation numbers ke lower-than-expected results ko reflect kiya. Is par comment karte hue, Sam Hill, market insights ke head at Lloyds Bank, kehte hain: “Powell ka nazariya pessimistic tha.” “Yeh Fed ke second quarter ke dauran dekhi gayi data trend ki improvement ko reflect karta hai, khaaskar last teen inflation publications.”

US dollar aise statements ke liye kam sensitive sabit hua hai. Yeh significant girawat dekhi gayi jab Powell ne 3 July ko ECB's Forum on Central Banking mein kaha tha ke inflation par significant progress hui hai aur disinflation process track par wapas aa gaya hai. Agar labor market “unexpectedly weak” hota hai... toh yeh bhi humein respond karne ko majboor karega, Sintra, Portugal mein kaha. Powell ne yeh bhi dohraaya ke neutral level interest rates ka shayad pehle se zyada hoga, magar policy constrained rahi gi. Is hisaab se, analysts ne add kiya, “Market prices ab is saal ke dauran zyada cuts ki taraf shift kar rahi hain, September se easing cycle shuru hone ke saath aur saal ke dauran kam se kam do cuts, teen cuts ka 60% probability ke saath.”

Forex market trading ke mutabiq... EUR/USD exchange rate ne yeh bada confidence dekha ke Federal Reserve September mein US interest rates ko cut karega. Lekin agar 1.09 level ko sustain karne mein na kaamyaabi dekhi jaye, to iska matlab yeh ho sakta hai ke cut already “price mein hai.” Iska matlab ho sakta hai ke dollar current levels ke aas-paas consolidate ho jaye aur jo log euro ko mazid strong dekhna chahte hain unhein aur catalysts ka intezar karna padega.

Aam taur par, kal, Thursday ko European Central Bank par sabki nazar hogi, jab yeh apni next interest rate decision dega. Interest rates ko unchanged rakha jayega magar markets hints ki talash mein hain ke kya aur rate cuts hone wale hain. ECB ke September rate cut ko market ne almost entirely price kar liya hai, jo yeh suggest karta hai ke yeh euro versus dollar ko meaningful taur par change nahi karega, jo exchange rate ko 1.09 ke neeche stable rakh sakta hai aur nayi breakout ke liye tayar kar sakta hai.

/USD currency pair mein aik nihayat buland izafa dekha gaya, 1.1010 ke ahem resistance level ke qareeb pounch gaya. Yeh izafa Euro ki qeemat mein US Dollar ke muqable mein taqatwar izafa ko numaya karta hai. Mojudah doran mein, EUR/USD 1.0926 ke qareeb trading ho raha hai, forex market mein barqarar bullish momentum ka dikhawa kartay hue. Euro ki qadr ka is izafa ne US Dollar par barhti hui dabao ke sath aiqtadar-e-uzma aur karobar ke dataon ke zariye chal raha pressure ko milta hai. US Economic Indicators aur Inke Asar Dollar Par
Haal hi mein aaye hue economic data United States ke Dollar par numaya asar andaz hue hain. July mein ISM Services PMI 48.8 par gira, jo April 2020 se sab se tezi se girawat thi. Yeh huliya kisi had tak umeed se kum tha jo 52.5 tha aur June ke 53.8 se gir gaya tha. Is ke ilawa, ADP Employment report ne bataya ke US private jagahon par sirf 150,000 naye jobs shamil hue July mein - jise 160,000 ka tasavvur kiya gaya tha, aur yeh paanch mahinon mein sab se choti izafa tha. Yeh data points kamzor hote hui economic conditions ka ishara dete hain aur US Dollar par pressure dalte hain.

European Market Sentiment aur Bond Yield Spread

Europe mein, market sentiment bond yields ke tabadlay se mutasir hota hai. French aur German 10 saal ke hakoomati bonds ke darmiyan yield spread haal hi mein karib 71 basis points tak ghata, jo pichle mahine ke end par 82 basis points se nichay tha. Yeh kam hone wala spread yeh zahir karta hai ke investors mein barhtay huay itminan hai ke France ke far-right RN party ko majlis-e-shura mein bari bahali hasil karna mushkil hai. Yeh sentiment mein tabdeeli ne France ke assets ko taqat di hai aur Euro ki puri shidat mein pechida hai.

EUR/USD ki Technical Analysis

Ek technical lehaz se, EUR/USD pair taqatwar bullish trends ka dikhawa kar raha hai. Yeh behad nichay 1.1000 ke levels se tezi se ubhar raha hai, chand waqton ke liye 1.0950 se oopar chala gaya hai. Pair ne 200-din EMA par 1.0826 se bhi guzar gaya hai, jo taqatwar short-term bullish sentiment ko zahir karta hai. Yeh technical tor par breakthrough yeh darust karta hai ke upri trend jari reh sakta hai, traders resistance levels aur potential breakout points ko qareeb se nigrani me rakhte hue

/USD currency pair mein aik nihayat buland izafa dekha gaya, 1.1010 ke ahem resistance level ke qareeb pounch gaya. Yeh izafa Euro ki qeemat mein US Dollar ke muqable mein taqatwar izafa ko numaya karta hai. Mojudah doran mein, EUR/USD 1.0926 ke qareeb trading ho raha hai, forex market mein barqarar bullish momentum ka dikhawa kartay hue. Euro ki qadr ka is izafa ne US Dollar par barhti hui dabao ke sath aiqtadar-e-uzma aur karobar ke dataon ke zariye chal raha pressure ko milta hai. US Economic Indicators aur Inke Asar Dollar Par
Haal hi mein aaye hue economic data United States ke Dollar par numaya asar andaz hue hain. July mein ISM Services PMI 48.8 par gira, jo April 2020 se sab se tezi se girawat thi. Yeh huliya kisi had tak umeed se kum tha jo 52.5 tha aur June ke 53.8 se gir gaya tha. Is ke ilawa, ADP Employment report ne bataya ke US private jagahon par sirf 150,000 naye jobs shamil hue July mein - jise 160,000 ka tasavvur kiya gaya tha, aur yeh paanch mahinon mein sab se choti izafa tha. Yeh data points kamzor hote hui economic conditions ka ishara dete hain aur US Dollar par pressure dalte hain.

European Market Sentiment aur Bond Yield Spread

Europe mein, market sentiment bond yields ke tabadlay se mutasir hota hai. French aur German 10 saal ke hakoomati bonds ke darmiyan yield spread haal hi mein karib 71 basis points tak ghata, jo pichle mahine ke end par 82 basis points se nichay tha. Yeh kam hone wala spread yeh zahir karta hai ke investors mein barhtay huay itminan hai ke France ke far-right RN party ko majlis-e-shura mein bari bahali hasil karna mushkil hai. Yeh sentiment mein tabdeeli ne France ke assets ko taqat di hai aur Euro ki puri shidat mein pechida hai.

EUR/USD ki Technical Analysis

Ek technical lehaz se, EUR/USD pair taqatwar bullish trends ka dikhawa kar raha hai. Yeh behad nichay 1.1000 ke levels se tezi se ubhar raha hai, chand waqton ke liye 1.0950 se oopar chala gaya hai. Pair ne 200-din EMA par 1.0826 se bhi guzar gaya hai, jo taqatwar short-term bullish sentiment ko zahir karta hai. Yeh technical tor par breakthrough yeh darust karta hai ke upri trend jari reh sakta hai, traders resistance levels aur potential breakout points ko qareeb se nigrani me rakhte hue

EUR/USD Forum Analysis Forecast

Mujhe lagta hai ki EUR/USD market mein buyer's dominance hai aur yeh bullish trend continue karta rahega. Price 1.1117 ke level par hai aur yeh increase ka indication hai. MACD indicator bhi bullish trend ko show kar raha hai. Agar price 1.1130 ke level par pahunchta hai, to yeh BUY trading ke liye good moment hoga. Lekin, Jackson Hole Symposium aur US PMI figures ki release se volatility aa sakti hai, isliye careful rehna zaroori hai.

US Dollar Index (DXY) ne persistent weakness show ki hai, 0.20% drop karke 101.10 ke level par pahunch gaya hai. Yeh decline Federal Reserve ki monetary policy ease karne ki expectations se closely tied hai. Investors potential rate cut ke liye position le rahe hain, jisne Dollar ko sell-off kar diya hai aur EUR/USD pair ko rise kar diya hai. Market ko focus karne ke liye, Jackson Hole Symposium key event hai. Fed Chair Jerome Powell ki speech symposium mein highly anticipated hai, kyunki yeh Fed ki policy direction par further clarity de sakti hai. Market US PMI figures ki release ka bhi wait kar raha hai, jo economic health ke crucial indicators hain aur Fed ki decisions ko influence kar sakti hain.

Technically, EUR/USD pair ne significant resistance levels breach kiye hain, bullish sentiment ko reinforce karta hai. Agar pair continue rise karta hai, to yeh higher levels 1.1150 ya beyond target kar sakta hai. Lekin, upcoming data aur Powell ki speech volatility introduce kar sakti hai, particularly agar Fed ki tone more hawkish than expected hai. Agar data upside surprise karta hai, to yeh Euro ki gains ko dampen kar sakta hai, next support level 1.1050 ke paas

Tuesday ke trading session mein New York mein, EUR/USD currency pair mein aik nihayat buland izafa dekha gaya, 1.1010 ke ahem resistance level ke qareeb pounch gaya. Yeh izafa Euro ki qeemat mein US Dollar ke muqable mein taqatwar izafa ko numaya karta hai. Mojudah doran mein, EUR/USD 1.0926 ke qareeb trading ho raha hai, forex market mein barqarar bullish momentum ka dikhawa kartay hue. Euro ki qadr ka is izafa ne US Dollar par barhti hui dabao ke sath aiqtadar-e-uzma aur karobar ke dataon ke zariye chal raha pressure ko milta hai. US Economic Indicators aur Inke Asar Dollar Par
Haal hi mein aaye hue economic data United States ke Dollar par numaya asar andaz hue hain. July mein ISM Services PMI 48.8 par gira, jo April 2020 se sab se tezi se girawat thi. Yeh huliya kisi had tak umeed se kum tha jo 52.5 tha aur June ke 53.8 se gir gaya tha. Is ke ilawa, ADP Employment report ne bataya ke US private jagahon par sirf 150,000 naye jobs shamil hue July mein - jise 160,000 ka tasavvur kiya gaya tha, aur yeh paanch mahinon mein sab se choti izafa tha. Yeh data points kamzor hote hui economic conditions ka ishara dete hain aur US Dollar par pressure dalte hain.

European Market Sentiment aur Bond Yield Spread

Europe mein, market sentiment bond yields ke tabadlay se mutasir hota hai. French aur German 10 saal ke hakoomati bonds ke darmiyan yield spread haal hi mein karib 71 basis points tak ghata, jo pichle mahine ke end par 82 basis points se nichay tha. Yeh kam hone wala spread yeh zahir karta hai ke investors mein barhtay huay itminan hai ke France ke far-right RN party ko majlis-e-shura mein bari bahali hasil karna mushkil hai. Yeh sentiment mein tabdeeli ne France ke assets ko taqat di hai aur Euro ki puri shidat mein pechida hai.

EUR/USD ki Technical Analysis

Ek technical lehaz se, EUR/USD pair taqatwar bullish trends ka dikhawa kar raha hai. Yeh behad nichay 1.1000 ke levels se tezi se ubhar raha hai, chand waqton ke liye 1.0950 se oopar chala gaya hai. Pair ne 200-din EMA par 1.0826 se bhi guzar gaya hai, jo taqatwar short-term bullish sentiment ko zahir karta hai. Yeh technical tor par breakthrough yeh darust karta hai ke upri trend jari reh sakta hai, traders resistance levels aur potential breakout points ko qareeb se nigrani me rakhte hue.

Ikhtisar mein, Euro ke US Dollar ke muqable mein haal ki quwwat ko kamzor US economic indicators aur European markets mein itminani sentiment ka milaap mana jata hai. Jab EUR/USD pair ahem resistance levels ke qareeb pounchega, market participants qareeb aanay wale economic data aur geopolitical developments ko nigrani me rakhtay hue is currency pair ke mustaqbil ke harkaton par asar dalne wale cheezon ka tawaju se intezar karenge

EUR/USD Forum Analysis Forecast

Mujhe lagta hai ki EUR/USD market mein buyer's dominance hai aur yeh bullish trend continue karta rahega. Price 1.1117 ke level par hai aur yeh increase ka indication hai. MACD indicator bhi bullish trend ko show kar raha hai. Agar price 1.1130 ke level par pahunchta hai, to yeh BUY trading ke liye good moment hoga. Lekin, Jackson Hole Symposium aur US PMI figures ki release se volatility aa sakti hai, isliye careful rehna zaroori hai.

US Dollar Index (DXY) ne persistent weakness show ki hai, 0.20% drop karke 101.10 ke level par pahunch gaya hai. Yeh decline Federal Reserve ki monetary policy ease karne ki expectations se closely tied hai. Investors potential rate cut ke liye position le rahe hain, jisne Dollar ko sell-off kar diya hai aur EUR/USD pair ko rise kar diya hai. Market ko focus karne ke liye, Jackson Hole Symposium key event hai. Fed Chair Jerome Powell ki speech symposium mein highly anticipated hai, kyunki yeh Fed ki policy direction par further clarity de sakti hai. Market US PMI figures ki release ka bhi wait kar raha hai, jo economic health ke crucial indicators hain aur Fed ki decisions ko influence kar sakti hain.

Technically, EUR/USD pair ne significant resistance levels breach kiye hain, bullish sentiment ko reinforce karta hai. Agar pair continue rise karta hai, to yeh higher levels 1.1150 ya beyond target kar sakta hai. Lekin, upcoming data aur Powell ki speech volatility introduce kar sakti hai, particularly agar Fed ki tone more hawkish than expected hai. Agar data upside surprise karta hai, to yeh Euro ki gains ko dampen kar sakta hai, next support level 1.1050 ke paas

Euro dhire-dhire upwards ki taraf crawl kar raha hai, sabhi traders ke nerves ko test kar raha hai, dono buyers aur sellers. Sellers decline ka intezar kar rahe hain, aur yeh price fluctuations unhe constantly worry kar rahi hain. Buyers, doosri taraf, impatient hain ki price unke target levels ko reach kare, aur har pullback unke position ko emotional decision-making ki taraf le jata hai. Abhi tak, sab kuch plan ke mutabiq chal raha hai. Humare paas upside ki taraf bahut signals hain, sab higher timeframe par H4 (ya daily) ke hisab se. Hourly timeframe par bhi signal hai aur M15 par bhi. Pehle chart mein, main M15 par discuss kar raha hoon aur socha tha ki yeh kal play out ho jayega. Purple bar level 1.09456 tak precisely is signal ka potential dikha rahi hai. Is signal ki boundaries Fibonacci levels 0.0% aur 100% se mark ki gayi hain. Humare case mein, 100% targets ko represent karta hai, jabki 0.0% risk level 1.08812 par hai. Jab tak yeh levels reach nahi kiye jate, signal idea valid rehta hai. Agar Euro decide karta hai ki deeper pull back kare aur target levels ko reach nahi kar paata, to phir long positions enter karne ki koshish ki ja sakti hai level 1.09026 aur/or 1.08964 se. Pehle case mein, risk-to-reward ratio 1 to 2 hoga, aur doosre case mein, 1 to 3. Currently, humare paas M15 timeframe par sell signal hai. Lekin hum yahan sells mein enter nahi kar rahe. Signal either play out ho sakta hai ya correction ke baad reversal mein badal sakta hai. Agar abhi buys enter kiye jaye, to risk level choose karne mein difficulty hogi. Main ne red rectangles mein fractals mark kiye hain, unke bahut saare hain, aur unclear hai ki kon sa best hai risks ko place karne ke liye. Last one ke peeche try kiya ja sakta hai, jo currently sell signal de raha hai. Agar reversal ho jaye, to residual potential ko capture karne ki possibility hogi short stop-loss ke saath. Lekin correct risk overall is idea mein level 1.08812 ke beyond position hona chahiye. Is liye, yeh humein surprise nahi karna chahiye agar Euro suddenly liquidity grab ka experience kare, levels 1.09026 aur/or 1.08964 ko reach kar ke

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

EUR/USD YTD Tops ke Qareeb 1.1170 par Powell ke Ilan ke Sath Muqablay Mein

EUR/USD ne aik aur mazboot haftay ka performance dikhaya, apni lagatar chouthi week ki gains ko clinch kiya, jis mein 1.1180–1.1185 band mein 2024 ka aik naya peak bhi shamil tha. Is pair mein strong move upwards us waqt aayi jab US Dollar (USD) par barhati hui downward bias ne asar dikhaya. EUR/USD ne ab mazeed raftaar hasil ki aur 1.1170 ke region ko dobara visit kiya jab Chief Powell ne apni Jackson Hole ki speech mein agle maheenay rate cut ke bare mein kuch had tak "tasdeek" ki.



Aagey chal kar, EUR/USD se expected hai ke ye apne 2024 ke high 1.1174 (21 August) ko challenge karegi, jise 1.1200 ka round mark aur 2023 ka top 1.1275 (18 July) follow karega.

Pair ka agla downward target weekly low 1.0881 (8 August) hai, jo ke key 200-day SMA 1.0846 se pehle hai, aur weekly low 1.0777 (1 August) se pehle aata hai. Yahan se neeche June ka bottom 1.0666 (26 June) aur phir May ka low 1.0649 (1 May) aata hai.

Bari tasveer ko dekhte hue, pair ka upward trend tab tak continue hona chahiye jab tak ye crucial 200-day SMA se upar rehti hai.

Ab tak, four-hour chart par upside bias mein tepid deceleration dikhayi deta hai. Pehla resistance level 1.1174 par hai, jo ke 1.1275 se pehle hai. Dosri taraf, immediate support 55-SMA 1.1028 par hai, jise 1.0949 aur aakhir mein 1.0881 follow karta hai. Relative Strength Index (RSI) wapas 56 ke aas paas aa gaya hai.

Fundamental Analysis

EUR/USD ne apni multi-day rebound ko rok diya aur renewed downside pressure mein aaya jab Wednesday ke YTD peaks 1.1170 se guzar gaye, aur ye sab kuch US Dollar (USD) mein kuch bid bias ke resurgence ke backdrop ke hawalay se hua.



Dar asal, Greenback ne hal hi mein 2024 ke lows sub-101.00 zone (21 August) se rebound kiya, jaise ke US Dollar Index (DXY) ne zahir kiya, jab investors ne FOMC Minutes ka tajzia kiya, jo ke Fed ke September mein rate cut ke imkaan ko khula chhodta hai.

US Dollar ke daily rebound mein apna hissa dalte hue, US yields ne bhi mazeed steam ikatthi ki, jo ke mukhtalif maturity periods mein achi khaasi barh gayi.

Is doran, euro area ke advanced PMIs se mixed data ne pair ke north march ke continuation ke against kaam kiya, jab ke ECB Accounts ne zahir kiya ke policymakers ne pichlay maheenay rates ko neeche karne ki zarurat nahi samjhi, magar warn kiya ke aik nayi discussion September mein ho sakti hai jab ke high rates growth ko mutasir karte rahein.

ECB ke ird gird, aik naye survey se pata chala ke negotiated salaries mein growth, jo ke future pricing pressures ka aik aham indication hai, dusre quarter mein bohot tezi se slow hui.

FOMC Minutes ke zariye September mein rate cut ke imkaan ko support karte hue, Kansas City Fed Bank President Jeff Schmid ne announce kiya ke wo unemployment rate ke barhne ke peeche ke asbab ko kareebi se dekh rahe hain aur wo facts par rely karenge ke agle maheenay rate drop ko support karein ya nahi. Iske ilawa, Boston Fed President Susan Collins ne bhi kaha ke jaldi hi Fed ke liye rate-cutting cycle shuru karna waqt hoga, jo ye indicate karta hai ke wo agle maheenay ke central bank ke policy meeting mein rate decrease ko likely support karengi. Isi tarah, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker ne bhi apni readiness zahir ki ke agar data unki expectations ko meet kare, to wo September mein rate decrease ko support karenge. Harker ne kaha ke jab tak data mein koi unexpected shift nahi hota, wo samajhte hain ke ab waqt aa gaya hai ke rates mein katoti ki jaye.

Agar rate cuts hoti hain, to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool ke mutabiq, 25 bps reduction ka September 18 meeting par karib 75% imkaan hai.

Agar Fed baray rate cuts ka rukh karta hai, to policy gap Fed aur ECB ke darmiyan medium se long term tak narrow ho sakta hai, jo ke EUR/USD ko upar le ja sakta hai, khas tor par jab markets is saal ECB se do mazeed rate cuts expect kar rahe hain.

Magar, long term mein, US economy se Europe ke muqable mein outperform karne ki umeed hai, jo suggest karta hai ke dollar mein koi bhi prolonged weakness shayad temporary ho.

Aage dekhte hue, Chair Jerome Powell ke Jackson Hole mein speech aur Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda ki Parliament ke samnay testimony par tawajjo di jaye gi.

EURUSD currency pair. Do jumps mein, Friday aur kal Monday ko, price ne pichle aadhe mahine ki tamam decline ko level out kar diya. Sabse ahm baat jo yahan dekhi ja sakti hai, woh yeh ke price ne 2024 ka maximum 1.0978 update kiya hai aur yeh ek potential sales zone hai, kam az kam yahan se ek corrective rollback bohot mumkin hai. Price bhi ascending channel ke andar move kar rahi hai aur ab iski top ko storm kar rahi hai. Wave structure ne apna order upar banana shuru kar diya hai
. Aaj ki trading main price channels ke andar upward trend ka representation hai, jo pichlay do trading dinon ke doran price movement ka direction tha. Hum mazeed upside ki talash main hain. Is waqt price behavior bullish hai, kyun ke lower channel lines aur weekly pivot level se support mil rahi hai. Jab price red channel line ko pohanchi, toh drop hui, lekin lower channel line se support milte hi wapas upar janay lagi. Agar 1-hour candle channels ke neeche close hoti hai aur un channels ko break karti hai, toh sell ka mauqa ho ga agar candle channels ke neeche close hoti hai.
Ab jab ke red channel break ho gaya hai, price expected hai ke weekly resistance level 1.0910 tak rise karegi. EUR/USD prices mumkin hai ke weekly resistance level 1.0935 ki taraf upward wave start karen. Yeh is waqt ascending price channels ke andar trade kar rahi hai, jo pichlay do trading dinon ke doran price movement ko reflect karta hai. Is ke ilawa, price ne rise karna shuru kiya aur phir weekly pivot level pe sideways ho gayi. Abhi ke waqt price lower channel line se support le rahi hai aur upward move kar rahi hai, jo pehlay candles se zyada liquidity show kar rahi hai. Is wajah se, ek buy signal current level se resistance level 1.0930 tak consider kiya jaa raha hai, jab ke stop loss level 1.0880 ke neeche set kiya gaya hai taake losses minimize ho sakain. Aaj sell karne ke liye, aapko dekhna hoga ke price 1.0900 ke neeche drop ho aur ek ghante ke liye is level ke neeche remain kare.
EUR/USD ne surge kiya aur hourly time frame par downward trend ko tod diya. Hamara manna hai ke euro ne tamam bullish factors ko factor in kar liya hai, isliye ham upward movement ke jari rehne ki umeed nahi karte. Haan, U.S. data ne Friday ko dollar ko phir let down kiya, magar iska matlab yeh nahi ke greenback har din depreciate hoga. 24-hour time frame ab bhi 1.06 aur 1.10 ke flat range mein hai. Iss range ko chhodne ki koi wajah nahi hai. Market ab panic aur chaos ke halat mein hai.

EUR/USD currency pair apne targets ki taraf upar ki taraf move kar sakti hai. General taur par, agar kisi ne long positions kholni thi, to pichle trading week aur is week mein iske liye kaafi opportunities thi, isliye agar ab price upar jaati hai to mujhe hairani nahi hogi. Agar humare saath thodi si lucky raha, to shayad thoda sa pullback bhi dekhne ko mile, jahan buy positions kholna bhi mumkin ho. To ab hum round resistance level 1.10 ki taraf movement ki intezar karenge, aur shayad aur bhi current highs update ho. Selling consider karna tabhi samajh aayega agar currency pair support level 1.09 ke neeche girti hai.
**Current Bullish Trends**

EUR/USD pair abhi strong bullish trends dikha rahi hai, jo ke 1.1000 levels ke upar tezi se chadh rahi hai aur kuch periods ke liye 1.0950 ke upar bhi ja rahi hai. Yeh pair 200-day EMA ko bhi 1.0826 ke upar se paar kar chuki hai, jo ke short-term bullish sentiment ko signal deta hai. Yeh technical breakthrough yeh suggest karta hai ke upward trend continue ho sakti hai, aur traders resistance levels aur potential breakout points par nazar rakhenge.

**Influencing Factors**

Summary yeh hai ke Euro ki strength US Dollar ke muqablay mein weak US economic indicators aur European markets mein stable sentiment ki wajah se hai. Jaise hi EUR/USD pair significant resistance levels ke qareeb pohanchti hai, market participants aane wale economic data aur geopolitical developments par nazar rakhenge, kyunki yeh factors future movements ko influence kar sakte hain.

**Technical Analysis Attracting New Participants**

Technical analysis ke context mein, yeh scenario naye participants ko attract kar sakta hai jo pehle cautious ya bullish trend ke confirmation ka intezar kar rahe the. Yeh technical indicators ka alignment confirmation data ke tor par kaam karta hai, jo yeh darshata hai ke uptrend sustainable hai. Yeh increased participation bullish momentum ko aur fuel kar sakti hai, jab naye buyers existing upward pressure ko badhate hain.

Haalat-e-hazira main hum EUR/USD ki price movement ka tajziya kar rahe hain. Is hafte Europe zone se fundamental data kaafi mehdood hai, jo ke sab se nazdeek Thursday ko German CPI release ke sath hai. Halankeh yeh data zaroori hai, magar market kaafi had tak inflation ke kamzor honay ki situation ko pehle se hi calculate kar chuka hai. Uskay ilawa, European Central Bank ke Governor ne Jackson Hole symposium mein yeh ishara diya tha ke agle meeting mein interest rates ko phir se kam kiya ja sakta hai. Isliye, mujhe lagta hai ke yeh data EUR ki overall movement aur EUR/USD ki specific movement par zyada asar nahi daalega. Filhaal market risk-off mode mein hai, yaani log risk kam lene ki koshish kar rahe hain.



Technical analysis ke hawale se, EUR/USD ka movement weekly resistance zone 1.1226 - 1.1276 ke nazdeek aa raha hai. Main scenario yeh hai ke price is area ko touch karegi aur phir pehle ki tarah rejection dekhne ko milega. Doosra scenario yeh hai ke price upar chali jaaye aur resistance zone ke upar close kare, jisse phir 1.1500 ka target banega jo ke teen saal se touch nahi hua. Dono scenarios EUR/USD ki bullish condition ko change nahi karte. Isliye, is journal mein main best entry points dhoondhne ki koshish karunga jo maximum profit generate kar sake. Contra-trend strategy bhi possible hai agar properly calculate kiya jaye, isliye main H4 aur M15 timeframes par focus karunga. Price abhi bhi upward regression channel mein consistently move kar rahi hai. Upar ki momentum thodi kam ho gayi hai kyunki price median line par consolidate kar rahi hai. Lekin yeh bearish market ka indication nahi hai, kyunki buyers pehle se hi ek solid base area bana chuke hain jo support ka kaam de raha hai. Latest movement mein, yellow rectangle area 1.1098 trend continuation ka starting point ban gaya hai kyunki yeh teen lowest fractals ka area hai. Large bullish candle body ke basis par, jahan price directly median channel ko cross kar gayi hai, iska matlab H4 timeframe par market buyers ke control mein hai. Magar precision entry point dhoondhna thoda mushkil hai is timeframe par, isliye main M15 ko entry ke liye use karunga.

Hum iss waqt EUR/USD currency pair ke price behavior par discuss aur analyze kar rahe hain. Main euro ka daily chart zoom out kar raha hoon taake long-term sideways channel ko highlight kar sakoon jo ke monthly support aur resistance zones ke beech mein hai. Hum is range mein ek saal se zyada waqt se trade kar rahe hain, aur mera primary target monthly resistance zone ka upper boundary hai. Aane wala price movement iss baat par depend karta hai ke hum is area ko kaise navigate karte hain—ya toh hum iss sideways channel ke andar downward trading algorithm develop karenge ya phir is zone ke upar break karte huye bullish trend ko continue karenge. Ye bas meri soch hai. Agle hafte EU ka inflation data EUR/USD ke exchange rate ko impact karega. Monthly inflation rate ka forecast 0.1% hai, jo ke significant market reaction ko trigger nahi karega, kyun ke yeh European Central Bank (ECB) ke rate reduction plans ko shayad influence na kare.

Buyers ne expectations se zyada performance di hai. Bullish momentum tabhi mazid strong hoga agar predictions 1.10 pe hon, aur maximum move December ke high 1.1139 tak ho sakta hai. News-driven pullbacks ke bawajood, EUR/USD pair ne apni bullish direction ko resume kiya. Aap bilkul theek thay twelfth figure ke baare mein, lekin move utna swift nahi tha jitna kuch logon ne anticipate kiya tha. Jab ke euro ne slight bearish pullbacks diye, dollar struggle kar raha hai, aur almost sab currencies ke against ground lose kar raha hai except kuch cross pairs. Bulls ne confidently 1.1049 ko weekly time frame pe break kiya hai, aur ye unlikely hai ke bears turant price ko niche push karenge. Situation dramatically shift hui hai, aur July 2023 ka high 1.1269 ab within reach hai. Lekin bears asaani se surrender nahi karenge, magar main ab bhi iss possibility ko consider karta hoon. Agar bulls ne market open hone par twelfth figure ki taraf jaldi se surge kiya bina momentum lose kiye, toh hum directly 1.1269 tak move dekh sakte hain.