eur/usd

**EUR/USD H1 Chart**

Market off days aur Monday bonus update ke liye shukriya sir, bahut madad hui.

Jab se continue hoti hui increase hui, Thursday ko EUR/USD ne phir se girawat dekhi. EUR/USD ne 1.1172 ke area ko touch karne ke baad girawat shuru ki, jahan supply form hui thi. Jab candle supply area ko penetrate nahi kar paayi, shayad yahi wajah hai ke EUR/USD ko apni increase continue nahi kar paayi. Filhal EUR/USD 1.1116 ke price par trade ho rahi hai. Agar calculate karein, to EUR/USD lagbhag 65 pips gir gaya hai. Filhal candle position 1.1101 ke price par demand area mein phansi hui hai. H1 timeframe se agar analyze karein, to EUR/USD ka decline aur gehra ho sakta hai agar H1 support 1.1116 ke price par break ho jaye. Masla yeh hai ke ab tak yeh area break nahi hua hai. Jab tak support break nahi hota, EUR/USD phir se upar aa sakta hai. Mere hisab se, jo decline kal dekha gaya, wo sirf ek correction thi. Correction ke puri hone ke baad, EUR/USD apni increase continue karega. Masla yeh hai ke upar ke area mein ab bhi ek supply hai jo touch nahi hui, jo 1.1255 ke price par hai. EUR/USD ka agla target yeh area hai.

Daily timeframe se reference lete hue, filhal ki increase overbought area mein hai, RSI 70 level ke upar move kar rahi hai. Buyers market ko control karte hue nazar aa rahe hain pichle haftay ke market session ke end se aur is haftay ke pehle do dinon tak. Bullish trend ko follow karne ke liye, zyada careful rehna better hai ke pehle price decrease ki possibility ho, jo correction phase tak pohnchti hai, khaaskar 1.1049 ke range mein. Agar bearish price action zyada valid hoti hai, to long-term bearish correction phase ke liye selling consider karna interesting ho sakta hai, kyunke current increase ne 3 MA movement limit ko niche chhod diya hai. Bullish continuation area tab nazar aayegi jab price niche ke demand area ko test karegi, jo 1.1015 ke range mein hai, ya phir agle demand area tak pohnchti hai jo 1.0920 ke range mein hai. Agle market driver ke liye possibility FOMC meeting ke results ya Thursday ko Eurozone economy ke liye high impact news par depend karegi.

Budh ke din American session mein, currency pair kareeb 1.1150 tak barh gaya jab ke US Dollar (USD) mazid mazboot hua. Yeh uptick tab aaya jab investors ne apni tawajju Federal Reserve ke aane wale interest rate decision par mor di. US Dollar Index (DXY), jo ke Greenback ko chay badi currencies ke muqable mein measure karta hai, kareeb 101.20 tak surge kar gaya. Expectations hain ke Federal Reserve apne interest rates ko 5.25%-5.50% range mein barqarar rakhega, lekin market participants eagerly Fed ke monetary policy statement aur Chair Jerome Powell ki press conference ka intezar kar rahe hain taake aane wale rate cuts ke hawale se mazeed insights mil saken.
ECB aur Fed Policies: EUR/USD Movements par Asar Daalne Walay Key Factors

Is ke baraks, Euro (EUR) downward pressure ka samna kar raha hai ECB ke expected rate cuts ki wajah se. Guzishta hafte, ECB ne rates ko change nahi kiya, lekin recent kamzor German IFO survey results aur soft economic data ne mazeed rate cut ke liye expectations ko barhawa diya hai. Traders ab Germany aur Eurozone ke second quarter ke preliminary Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reports ka intezar kar rahe hain. Agar GDP figures expectations se behtar aye to yeh Euro ko support de sakti hain, aur bearish sentiment ko thoda balance kar sakti hain.

Market analysts yeh anticipate karte hain ke Fed apni September meeting mein rate cuts par discussion shuru karne ke liye signal de sakta hai, kyunki inflation ko 2% target ke qareeb lane mein progress hui hai aur labor market ke liye risks barh gaye hain. Inflation fears kam hue hain kyunki input prices mein aakhri chand mahino mein significant kamiyan aayi hain. Preliminary Q2 GDP report ne Price Index mein deceleration dikhaya hai jo ke 2.3% tak aagaya hai, jab ke estimates 2.6% aur previous reading 3.1% thi.

Technical Outlook: EUR/USD Key Support aur Resistance Levels ka Samna Kar Raha Hai

Is waqt EUR/USD kareeb 1.1140 par trade kar raha hai. Pair ab Symmetrical Triangle formation ke andar hai daily chart par, jab ke breakout ko sustain karne mein kamiyab nahi hua. EUR/USD ne apni decline ko 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke neeche extend kar diya hai, jo ke kareeb 1.1123 par positioned hai. Agar downward trend jaari rehti hai, to currency pair round-number support levels ko 1.0900 aur 1.0800 par test kar sakta hai.

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Comprehensive analysis ki buniyad par trading
EUR/USD
Assalam Alaikum! Takniki nuqtah nazar se, 4-ghante aur 1-ghante ke chart par kam hote trading volume ko dekhte hue, kal ka rujhan wazeh taur par mandi ka shikar tha. Aaj, market ki suratehal ghair yaqini hai. H4 stochastic indicator niche se ooper ki taraf roju kar chuka hai, jo ek mukhtasar muddati tezi se reversal ka ishara karta hai. H4 growth index apni sab se zyada tez readings par bana hua hai, jiska matlab hai keh haftawar chart par ooper ka rujhan ab bhi barqarar hai.
1-ghante ke chart se pata chalta hai keh Asian session ke aaghaz se hi markat ka jazbat mandi ka hai. Halankeh, kharidar euro ko 1.11300 ki satah se ooper ki taraf badhane ki koshish kar rahe hain. Haqiqat me, growth index aur trading volume filhal farokht ke ilaqe me hai, jabkeh stochastic indicator manfi ho chuke hain. Iska matlab yah hai keh is bat ka zyada imkan hai keh euro/dollar ki jodi niche ki taraf palat jayegi. Khas taur par, kaledi muzahmat aur support satah balatartib taur par 1.11300 aur 1.11020 hain.
Haqiqat me, istehkam is waqt yaumiyah chart ki bulandi par ho raha hai. Iske bad, imkan hai keh euro/dollar ki jodi kamzori ko dobara shuru karegi. Agar qimat 1.1102 ki support satah ko tod deti hai to, European currency ke 1.10742 ke nishan tak girne ki ummid hai. Itni aham rally ke sath, euro/dollar ki jodi niche ki taraf jane se pahle 1.11020 - 1.11645 ki range me ek din se zyada waqt tak sideways me trading kar sakti hai. Yaumiyah ascending channel ki nichli hadd, 1.10742 ki kami ke aaghaz ki nishandahi karegi.

EUR/USD Forum Analysis Forecast

Graph ke mapping results se yeh clear hai ki EUR/USD market mein currency pair ki condition abhi bhi buyer's troops ke control mein hai, jo ki last week ke end se continue hai. Price position jo upar move kar raha hai, abhi bhi 1.1117 level ke aaspaas hai, yeh indication hai ki market increase ko continue karne ki taraf move kar raha hai. Buyers abhi bhi bullish trend ko continue karne ki ummeed kar rahe hain, jo ki last few days mein hua hai.

Market movement currently sideways hai, lekin price abhi bhi Simple Moving Average 150 indicator ke upar khel raha hai, isliye future mein yeh 1.1150 level ko test karne ki possibility hai. Agar yeh level penetrate kar leta hai, toh market ko increase ko continue karne ki aur opportunities milegi. MACD indicator ke histogram bar ki position consistently zero level ke upar move kar rahi hai, yeh show kar raha hai ki market bullish trend mein move kar raha hai.

Candlestick ke monitoring se, yeh clear hai ki trend abhi bhi bullish trend ko continue karne ki potential rakhta hai. Agar price phir se 1.1130 level ke aaspaas move karta hai, toh yeh BUY trading ke liye good moment hai. Kyunki us time entry signal ki possibility zyada valid hai. EUR/USD market ki latest trend conditions abhi bhi bullish trend mein hain, isliye transactions ke time current trend ko prioritize karna zaroori hai, taki profit ki potential increase ho.

US Dollar Index (DXY) ne persistent weakness dikhai hai, 0.20% drop karke 101.10 ke aaspaas. Yeh decline growing expectations se closely tied hai ki Federal Reserve soon monetary policy ease karega. Investors potential rate cut ke liye position le rahe hain, jo ki Dollar mein sell-off aur EUR/USD pair mein corresponding rise ko lead kar raha hai. Jackson Hole Symposium, jo ki later this week schedule hai, key event hai. Fed Chair Jerome Powell ke speech ko highly anticipate kiya ja raha hai, kyunki yeh Fed ke policy direction ki further clarity provide kar sakta hai. Market US PMI figures ke release ka await kar raha hai, jo ki economic health ke crucial indicators hain aur Fed ke decisions ko influence kar sakte hain

EUR/USD Analysis

Assalamu alaikum, fellow traders; kal ke trading plan ne accha perform kiya, EURUSD pair ne approximately 75 pips strengthen kiya. Aaj ke journal update mein, main EURUSD pair par discussion karunga. Chart ko dekhne ke liye ki current market condition kya hai.

Chart se pata chalta hai ki kal ke market movement ne strengthen kiya, lekin significantly nahi, aur nearest resistance level 1.1135 se break nahi kiya. Lekin agar market structure ko dekhenge, woh abhi bhi bullish trend mein hai aur mid-BB se upar hai.

H1 time frame par, kal ke price strengthening ne Monday ke highest price level ko cross kiya, new higher high area create kiya. Current conditions ke based par, price ko higher move karne ka chance hai, nearest resistance level 1.1150 par projection ke sath.





Agar yeh resistance area later break hota hai, next price increase target 1.1050 hai, jo ki higher move karne ki possibility ko exclude nahi karta. Overall, EURUSD pair abhi bhi buy option ke liye good candidate hai.

Technical analysis se pata chalta hai ki EURUSD pair current mein bullish trend mein hai, isliye aaj ke trading plan mein main buy karne ka intend karta hoon, sell karne ke bajay, price ko nearest resistance level par strengthen karne ke liye.

SL distance approximately 40 pips aur minimum reward 50 to 60 pips ke sath, main price ko drop karne ke liye wait karunga, nearest support level par correct karne ke liye, phir entry karunga. Agar aap longer period ke liye position hold karna chahte hain, closest resistance level par position place ki ja sakti hai.

Maine sell option ko abhi tak apne trading scheme mein include nahi kiya hai, lekin agar price support level se upar rehta hai, buy option abhi bhi top priority hai mere trading scheme mein

Tuesday ke trading session mein New York mein, EUR/USD currency pair mein aik nihayat buland izafa dekha gaya, 1.1010 ke ahem resistance level ke qareeb pounch gaya. Yeh izafa Euro ki qeemat mein US Dollar ke muqable mein taqatwar izafa ko numaya karta hai. Mojudah doran mein, EUR/USD 1.0926 ke qareeb trading ho raha hai, forex market mein barqarar bullish momentum ka dikhawa kartay hue. Euro ki qadr ka is izafa ne US Dollar par barhti hui dabao ke sath aiqtadar-e-uzma aur karobar ke dataon ke zariye chal raha pressure ko milta hai. US Economic Indicators aur Inke Asar Dollar Par
Haal hi mein aaye hue economic data United States ke Dollar par numaya asar andaz hue hain. July mein ISM Services PMI 48.8 par gira, jo April 2020 se sab se tezi se girawat thi. Yeh huliya kisi had tak umeed se kum tha jo 52.5 tha aur June ke 53.8 se gir gaya tha. Is ke ilawa, ADP Employment report ne bataya ke US private jagahon par sirf 150,000 naye jobs shamil hue July mein - jise 160,000 ka tasavvur kiya gaya tha, aur yeh paanch mahinon mein sab se choti izafa tha. Yeh data points kamzor hote hui economic conditions ka ishara dete hain aur US Dollar par pressure dalte hain.

European Market Sentiment aur Bond Yield Spread

Europe mein, market sentiment bond yields ke tabadlay se mutasir hota hai. French aur German 10 saal ke hakoomati bonds ke darmiyan yield spread haal hi mein karib 71 basis points tak ghata, jo pichle mahine ke end par 82 basis points se nichay tha. Yeh kam hone wala spread yeh zahir karta hai ke investors mein barhtay huay itminan hai ke France ke far-right RN party ko majlis-e-shura mein bari bahali hasil karna mushkil hai. Yeh sentiment mein tabdeeli ne France ke assets ko taqat di hai aur Euro ki puri shidat mein pechida hai.

EUR/USD ki Technical Analysis

Ek technical lehaz se, EUR/USD pair taqatwar bullish trends ka dikhawa kar raha hai. Yeh behad nichay 1.1000 ke levels se tezi se ubhar raha hai, chand waqton ke liye 1.0950 se oopar chala gaya hai. Pair ne 200-din EMA par 1.0826 se bhi guzar gaya hai, jo taqatwar short-term bullish sentiment ko zahir karta hai. Yeh technical tor par breakthrough yeh darust karta hai ke upri trend jari reh sakta hai, traders resistance levels aur potential breakout points ko qareeb se nigrani me rakhte hue.

Ikhtisar mein, Euro ke US Dollar ke muqable mein haal ki quwwat ko kamzor US economic indicators aur European markets mein itminani sentiment ka milaap mana jata hai. Jab EUR/USD pair ahem resistance levels ke qareeb pounchega, market participants qareeb aanay wale economic data aur geopolitical developments ko nigrani me rakhtay hue is currency pair ke mustaqbil ke harkaton par asar dalne wale cheezon ka tawaju se intezar karenge

Main aapki tawajjo M15 time frame ke linear regression channel ki taraf dilwana chahta hoon, jo ke upwards slope kar raha hai, aur ye buyers ke trend ka izhar kar raha hai. Is beech bears bhi apni activity dikha rahe hain, jo price ko neeche push karne ki koshish kar rahe hain. Main observe kar raha hoon ke price 1.09196 se neeche break kar rahi hai, jo channel ki lower boundary 1.09228 ke bahar hai, aur ye 1.09095 tak ke possible decline ka signal de sakta hai. Lekin, ye bhi worth noting hai ke 1.09095 ke level par buyers ki taraf se sellers ko strong resistance face karna par sakta hai. Analysis suggest karta hai ke 1.09095 tak sell kiya ja sakta hai, lekin main recommend karta hoon ke is level par positions close kar den ya at least order ko breakeven par secure kar len. Jaise ke hamesha, ehtiyaat aur proper risk management successful trading ke key principles hain!

Mera strategic goal hai ke main downtrend par position hold karun aur 1.09095 ke level par barrier ko break karun. Lekin, yeh zaroori hai ke hourly channel ke position ko bhi madde nazar rakha jaye kyunki yeh downward movement ko limit kar sakta hai. Isliye, main sabhi risks ko consider karta hoon aur necessary analysis conduct karta hoon taake losses ko protect aur minimize kiya ja sake.

Hourly chart par, linear regression channel bhi upwards slope kar raha hai, jo buyers ki strength ko dikhata hai jo market par dominate kar rahe hain. Is case mein, H1 channel M15 se zyada significance rakhta hai. Agar channel ki lower boundary 1.09095 tak pohanchi, to yeh ek strong buyer ka izhar ho sakta hai. Filhal, M15 par linear regression ek correction suggest karta hai, jiske baad bulls zyada active ho sakte hain. Agar market 1.09095 ke level par hold karta hai, to yeh ek buying opportunity ho sakti hai, jo ek accha idea ho sakta hai. Target 1.09425 ka hoga. Is target ko achieve karne ke baad, agar koi active seller 1.09425 ke level par appear hota hai to market ka direction bearish ho sakta hai. Agar price 1.09095 ke neeche break kar jata hai, to yeh selling ka signal ho sakta hai, kyunki yeh trend reversal ka indication de sakta hai.

Ab hum EUR/USD currency pair ke price fluctuations ka tajziya karenge. Friday ko, humne EUR/USD pair ko H1 time frame par trade kiya tha planned sideways movement ke andar, jo ke 9th din se qaim hai. Jaise expect kiya gaya tha, humne weekend se pehle is sideways pattern se exit nahi kiya, aur Monday ko yeh range mein hi continue karega. Lekin, Tuesday aur Wednesday tak, jab economic calendar active ho jayega, tab hum consolidation se break dekh sakte hain. Critical sawal yeh hai ke market kis direction mein move karega, lekin breakout direction ko predict karna mushkil hai kyunki theoretically yeh dono taraf ho sakta hai. Attached chart potential targets ko illustrate karta hai is movement ke liye. Yeh predict karna challenging hai ke EUR/USD pair ka upcoming trading week mein kis taraf break hoga, especially given ke resistance ka narrow range, jo ke 1.0966 aur 1.0947 ke beech identify kiya gaya hai, iski recent decline ke darmiyan.

Lekin, agar price is range ke upar stabilize ho jati hai, to bulls ko ek fresh local maximum ki taraf drive kar sakti hai. Main estimate karta hoon ke dono scenarios ke liye 50% chance hai, halaan ke main thoda bullish outcome ki taraf lean karta hoon. Price mein lower boundary of the triangle, jo ke minimum level 1.0449 ke ird gird hai, tak retreat karne ka potential hai. Iske bawajood, upside breakout zyada feasible lag raha hai. Price current upper boundary ko break karne ya neeche move karne ki koshish kar sakti hai, halaan ke ab tak lower boundary tak nahi pohnchi. Isliye, main maximum ko update karne ki possibility 1.1009 tak rule out nahi kar sakta. U.S. Dollar Index ko dekhte hue, weakening ke signs zahir hain. Hum index mein further decline dekh sakte hain, jo ke minimum ko 102.14 tak update kar sakta hai

EUR/USD pair ek dynamic trading environment se guzar raha hai jahan kai technical indicators ahem insights fraham kar rahe hain. EUR/USD ka mojooda price ek ahem level ke qareeb hai jahan resistance aur support wazeh tor par dikhai de rahe hain. Filhal ka resistance level 1.2200 par hai, jo kai martaba test ho chuka hai, yeh upward movement ke liye ek strong barrier ban gaya hai. Neeche ke side par, support level 1.2000 ke qareeb hai, jo ek critical threshold hai jo kai dafa test aur hold kar chuka hai, aur decline ko rok raha hai. Candlestick patterns bullish aur bearish sentiments ka mix dikhate hain, recent candles lambi wicks ke sath traders ke darmiyan indecision ko zahir kar rahi hain. RSI (Relative Strength Index) filhal 55 par hai, jo neutral zone mein hai aur yeh indicate karta hai ke market na to overbought hai na oversold, is se yeh lagta hai ke market dono taraf move kar sakta hai depending on upcoming market catalysts. Dosray technical indicators ke lehaz se, 50-period EMA (Exponential Moving Average) filhal 200-period EMA ke neeche hai, jo longer term mein bearish trend ko signal karta hai. Bollinger Bands relatively tight hain, jo lower volatility ko zahir karti hain, aur price filhal middle band ke qareeb hai, jo ek balanced market ka ishara hai. Zigzag indicator recent higher highs aur higher lows dikhata hai, jo yeh hint deta hai ke agar price resistance level ko break kar sakta hai to ek possible uptrend ho sakta hai. Demand Index, jo buying aur selling pressure ko measure karta hai, moderately positive hai, jo buyers ko slight edge deta hai. Stochastic Oscillator 65 par hai, overbought zone se door hota huwa lekin upper range mein, jo cautious optimism ko zahir karta hai. Aakhir mein, Average True Range (ATR), jo market volatility ko measure karta hai, 0.0020 par hai, jo relatively stable market conditions ko zahir karta hai lekin potential breakout movements ke sath.
Sood ki katauti ki umeed aur naye macroeconomic forecasts par zyada focus ECB ke accommodative stance ko zahi karte hain, jo ma'ashi indicators par jawabi iqdamat hain. Is liye, aanewala PMI data market ke jazbat aur euro ke trajectory ke hawalay se umeedain banane mein asar daalega.
Ahem Ma’ashi Indicators Ma'ashi calendar ke mutabiq, Eurozone, Germany, aur France ke flash PMI data ahem regions mein ma'ashi activity aur jazbat ke ahem indicators hain. Aam tawakko se zyada mazboot PMI reading euro ko mazbooti de sakti hai, jab ke kamzor data mazeed ECB monetary easing ki umeedain barha sakti hai.
Jab ke euro $1.088 ke ird gird hai, tawajju ECB ki policy review aur ahem ma'ashi data ki release par hai. Markazi bank ke faislay, jo updated ma'ashi forecasts aur indicators se mutasir hain, euro ke mustaqbil trajectory ka ta'ayyun karenge. Is liye, investors aur traders ko in developments par nazar rakhni hogi taake potential currency market fluctuations se nimat sakein.
Eurozone Mein Consumer Jazbat Tawako Se Zyada Behtar Pehli peemaiyon ne darshaya ke Eurozone ka consumer confidence index July 2024 mein -13 par utha hai, jo pichle mahine ke -14 se barh gaya hai aur market ki tawakko -13.4 ko peeche chorh gaya hai. Yeh February 2022 ke baad sabse ooncha level hai, jo ECB ke haal hi mein sood ki katauti ke asar mein inflation ke kam hone ke jawabi iqdamat hain. Market ka jazba mazeed rate cuts ki umeed par musbat hai, jo September aur shayad December mein ho sakte hain. France ke parliamentary elections ke baad siyasi concerns bhi kam ho gaye hain, jo single-party dominance ka dar kam karte hain aur legislative gridlock ko kam karte hain. European Union mein bhi consumer jazbat mein behtari dekhi gayi hai, jo -12.2 tak barh gaya hai.

EUR/USD currency pair ko challenges ka samna hai, kyun ke yeh daily charts par ek descending channel ke lower range mein confined hai. Friday ko pair mein thodi si uptick dekhne ko mili, magar broader bearish trend ab bhi dominant hai, jo ke bullish momentum ke liye ek solid foothold banane mein muskilat paida kar raha hai.

Is sluggish performance ka aik bada sabab U.S. dollar ki prevailing strength hai, jo ke Federal Reserve ke hawkish stance ki expectations se underpinned hai. Investors ko umeed hai ke inflation ko control karne ke liye further interest rate hikes hongi, jis ne dollar ko euro ke against buoyant rakha hua hai. Iske ilawa, Eurozone mein economic stability ke hawale se concerns, jo ke weaker-than-expected economic indicators ki wajah se paida hue hain, ne EUR/USD pair par downward pressure barhaya hai.

Technical picture se yeh nazar aata hai ke EUR/USD is waqt descending channel ke lower boundary ke qareeb trade kar raha hai, jo ke recent sessions mein aik significant support level raha hai. Yeh support zone, jo ke 1.0750 se 1.0800 ke aas paas hai, pair ke near-term outlook ke liye crucial hai. Agar yeh level break ho gaya, toh pair mein aur decline dekhne ko mil sakta hai towards 1.0650 mark, jo ke agla major support represent karta hai. Yeh scenario us surat mein unfold hoga agar U.S. economic data Eurozone se zyada strong raha, jo ke dono economies ke darmiyan divergence ko reinforce kareg.



Doosri taraf, kisi meaningful recovery ke liye EUR/USD ko descending channel se breakout karna hoga aur key resistance levels ko overcome karna hoga. Pehla major resistance 1.0900 level ke aas paas dekha ja raha hai, jahan upper boundary of the channel 50-day moving average ke sath coincide karti hai. Agar is level ke upar ek sustained move hota hai, toh yeh rally ka raasta khol sakta hai towards 1.1000 psychological level, jo ke market sentiment mein ek potential shift ka signal dega.

Summary mein, EUR/USD pair descending channel ke andar pressure mein hai, jahan key support aur resistance levels 1.0750 aur 1.0900 par hain. Is range se breakout karne ki ability ka daromadar U.S. aur Eurozone ke economic data ki comparative strength par hoga.

EUR/USD ne US Dollar ki kamzori ke karan thoda sa upper move kiya hai, jabke traders ne apni tawajjah Federal Reserve (Fed) ke Chair Jerome Powell ke Jackson Hole Symposium mein khutba ki taraf shift kar di hai. Investors September aur saal ke baqi hisse ke liye fresh interest-rate guidance ki talash mein hain. ECB ko September mein phir se interest rates cut karne ki ummeed hai. EUR/USD ne Friday ke European session mein 1.1120 ke qareeb recover kiya hai, Thursday ko 1.1174 ke fresh year-to-date high se correct hone ke baad.

Major currency pair ne US Dollar (USD) ki recent weakness ko resume kiya hai, Fed Chair Jerome Powell ke Jackson Hole Symposium mein khutba se pehle caution ke karan. US Dollar Index (DXY), jo Greenback ki value ko six major currencies ke khilaf track karta hai, 101.30 ke qareeb drop kiya hai, Thursday ko 101.00 ke more-than-seven-month low se nearly 101.60 par recover karne ke baad.






US Dollar ne flash US S&P Global PMI report ke August ke liye better-than-estimated Composite PMI 54.1 ke baad strongly bounce back kiya. Report ne dikhaya ki business activity services sector mein robust expansion ke karan boost hui, jabke manufacturing part of economy ne faster-than-expected pace se contract kiya.

Jerome Powell apne khutbe mein interest rates aur US economic outlook ke cues provide karne ki ummeed hai. Market participants September meeting mein interest rate cuts ke size ko janna chahte hain, kyunki "vast majority" of officials ne kaha ki "if data continued to come in about as expected, it would likely be appropriate to ease policy at the next meeting," according to FOMC minutes of July 30-31 policy meeting.

Investors US economy ko "soft landing" achieve karne ki chances bhi consider kar rahe hain, knowing ki price pressures 2% ke desired rate par return karne ke track par hain. US recession ki fears Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report ke July mein labor demand mein sharp slowdown aur Unemployment Rate 4.3% par increase ke baad escalate hui hain.

Analysts ki ummeed nahi hai ki Jerome Powell preset interest rate path provide karega. Lekin, woh September mein rate cuts ko appropriate call kar sakta hai, kyunki risks ab dual mandate (inflation aur employment) ke dono aspects par expand ho gaye hain

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

EURUSD Weekly Forecast

Rising bets for a rate cut by the Fed in September weighed on the US Dollar. Powell paved the way for an interest rate cut in September. EUR/USD ne naya 2024 high 1.1200 ke qareeb dekha aur ab 1.1275 ka target hai. Ek aur mazboot weekly performance ne EUR/USD ko uski fourth consecutive week of gains dilwai, jismein 1.1180–1.1185 band mein naya 2024 peak bhi shamil hai. Yeh mazboot upar ki taraf ka movement US Dollar (USD) par heightened downward bias ke response mein aaya.

Powell ne September mein rate cut ke liye case ko mazid mazboot kiya

Yeh EUR/USD ke liye tamam week positive raha, jabke market participants ne Greenback ko sazawa dena jaari rakha yeh soch kar ke Federal Reserve (Fed) shayad September mein interest rates kaatna shuru kar de.

Is nazariye par kuch Fed officials ne bhi apni raye ka izhar kiya, aur FOMC Minutes mein bhi is week ke aghaz mein yeh baat hui, lekin akhri faisla Chair Jerome Powell ne Jumma ko apni highly anticipated speech mein Jackson Hole Symposium par diya. Darhaqeeqat, Powell ne apni speech mein yeh ishara diya ke monetary policy stance mein tabdeeli ka waqt aa gaya hai, aur unko ab is baat ka ziyada yaqeen hai ke US inflation sustainable path par bank ke goal ki taraf ja raha hai.

Rate cut ke possible size ke issue ke hawale se lagta hai ke ye ek quarter-point reduction ki taraf ja raha hai, jabke US recession ke dar ko nayi strong data releases ke baad kam samjha ja raha hai.

ECB se bhi September mein rates kaatne ki umeed hai
European Central Bank (ECB) ke ongoing radio silence ke bawajood, investors abhi bhi is saal ke baqi do mahinon mein do aur interest rate cuts pencil kar rahe hain, jismein September aur December sabse likely hain, jo year-end tak deposit facility rate ko 3.25% tak le jayenge.

ECB ke further easing ka logic Germany aur puri euro bloc mein economic aur business activity ki worsening conditions mein milta hai. Old continent par recession thoda overstate lagta hai, lekin economic activity mein slowdown ka period aane ke imkaan ziyada hain.

Lekin inflation ke baare mein yeh baat nahi keh sakte, jo region mein abhi bhi stubbornly elevated hai, khaaskar services ke hawale se. Lekin, ECB ke latest survey ke mutabiq, Eurozone mein wage growth last quarter slow hui hai, jo agle kuch mahinon mein ek aur interest rate cut ke liye argument ko mazid mazboot karta hai aur policymakers ke concerns ko kam karta hai ke rising labour costs inflation ko barhawa denge.

Is ke ilawa, negotiated wages mein growth second quarter mein 3.55% tak slowdown dekha gaya, jo pehle teen mahinon mein 4.74% thi, jo ke largely Germany, bloc ki sabse bari economy, mein significant slowdown ki wajah se hua.

Sab mila kar, jabke Fed-ECB policy divergence agle kuch mahinon mein kam hoti nazar aa rahi hai, toh tawajju real economy par rahegi, jahan US apne European peer par advantage rakhta hai, jiski wajah se long run mein Greenback ki downside kuch had tak contained reh sakti hai.

EUR/USD ke liye agla kya?

Agle haftay Germany central stage par hoga, jahan IFO ka Business Climate (August 26), final Q2 GDP Growth Rate (August 27), GfK ka Consumer Confidence (August 28), current month ke liye advanced Inflation Rate (August 29), Retail Sales, aur labour market report (August 30) release hongi. Is ke ilawa, broader euro area mein preliminary Inflation Rate bhi August 30 ko expected hai.

EUR/USD ka technical outlook

Technical perspective se, EUR/USD apni uptrend ko continue karne ke liye position mein hai. Weekly chart par, spot ne key 200-week SMA 1.1063 ke ooper leave kiya hai, jo ke ongoing bullish trend ke continuation ke liye acha sign hai.



Daily chart par, technical indicators abhi bhi overbought region mein hain, jabke momentum yeh indicate karta hai ke current upside bias abhi bhi strong hai. Provisional 55-day aur 100-day SMAs abhi bhi northward point kar rahe hain 1.0857 aur 1.0820 par. Spot, is dauran, critical 200-day SMA 1.0847 ke ooper business maintain kar raha hai, isliye short-term constructive bias mazid qaim hai. Aagey ka raasta, YTD peak 1.1194 (August 23) ke saath immediate upside barrier ke tor par samne aata hai. Is level se aagey ka movement 1.1200 milestone tak ja sakta hai, jo ke 2023 peak 1.1275 (July 18) se pehle hai.

Agar pullback hota hai, toh immediate support 1.0881 (weekly low August 8) par hai, followed by 200-day SMA aur August bottom 1.0777 (August 1).

Economic Indicator

Consumer Price Index (CPI), jo ke German statistics office Destatis har mahine release karta hai, households ke liye sabhi goods aur services ki average price change ko measure karta hai jo consumption purposes ke liye khareedi jati hain. CPI inflation ko measure karne ka main indicator hai aur purchasing trends mein changes ko dikhata hai. YoY reading prices ko reference month se ek saal pehle ke saath compare karti hai. Aam tor par, high reading Euro (EUR) ke liye bullish hoti hai, jabke low reading bearish hoti hai.

Fundamental Aspects

US Dollar Index (DXY) week ke end par 13-mahine ke low par 100.70–100.65 band mein gira, jo interest rate cuts par bets ke barhne ko reflect karta hai. Durable Goods Orders week ka aghaz karenge August 26 ko, followed by FHFA ka House Price Index aur Consumer Confidence gauge Conference Board ke dwara, dono August 27 ko due hain. MBA ke dwara tracked weekly Mortgage Applications aur US crude oil inventories par EIA ka report August 28 ko due hain. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Q2 GDP Growth Rate ka ek aur revision, advanced Goods Trade Balance, aur Pending Home Sales sab August 29 ko publish honge. Week ke end par PCE, Personal Income, Personal Spending, aur Michigan Consumer Sentiment ka final print hain.

EUR/USD ne chaar hafton mein lagatar chothi dafa gains hasil kiye aur 2023 ke summer mein dekhe gaye levels ke qareeb test karne mein kamiyab raha, sirf 1.1200 se thoda neeche. Germany ka IFO Business Climate August 26 ko aayega, final Q2 GDP Growth Rate Germany mein August 27 ko expected hai. Germany mein hi, GfK Consumer Confidence August 28 ko due hai. EMU ka final Consumer Confidence August 29 ko due hai, final Inflation Rate Germany mein bhi us din expected hai. August 30 ko Germany mein Retail Sales aur labour market report ke release due hain, followed by euro bloc mein flash Inflation Rate aur Unemployment Rate.

European Central Bank (ECB) Frankfurt, Germany mein Eurozone ke liye reserve bank hai. ECB Eurozone ke liye interest rates set karta hai aur monetary policy ko manage karta hai. ECB ka primary mandate price stability ko qaim rakhna hai, jo inflation ko lagbhag 2% par rakhne ka matlab hai. Iska primary tool interest rates ko barhawa ya kam karne se hai. High interest rates aam tor par ek strong Euro ka nateeja hota hai aur vice versa. ECB Governing Council monetary policy decisions 8 dafa ek saal mein meetings mein karta hai. Decisions Eurozone ke national banks ke heads aur ECB ke President Christine Lagarde ke shamil 6 permanent members banate hain.

Extreme situations mein, European Central Bank ek policy tool enact kar sakta hai jise Quantitative Easing (QE) kehte hain. QE ke process mein ECB Euros print karta hai aur unko banks aur doosri financial institutions se assets kharidne ke liye use karta hai – aam tor par government ya corporate bonds. QE aam tor par ek weak Euro ka sabab banta hai. QE ek aakhri chaara hota hai jab sirf interest rates kam karna price stability ka objective achieve karne ke liye kafi nahi hota. ECB ne ise Great Financial Crisis 2009-11 mein, 2015 mein jab inflation stubbornly low rahi thi, aur covid pandemic ke dauran use kiya tha.

Quantitative tightening (QT) QE ka ulta hota hai. Yeh QE ke baad undertake hota hai jab economic recovery underway hoti hai aur inflation barh raha hota hai. Jab QE mein European Central Bank (ECB) financial institutions se government aur corporate bonds khareedta hai taake unhe liquidity provide kar sake, QT mein ECB zyada bonds khareedna band kar deta hai, aur bonds jo already hold hain un par principal mature hone par reinvest karna band kar deta hai. Yeh aam tor par Euro ke liye positive (ya bullish) hota hai.

Jumeraat ke US session mein, currency pair 1.1212 ke upar chala gaya, jo ke DXY ke girne ki wajah se tha. Inflation data ne 2.6% saalana izafa dikhaya, jo ke 2.5% ke tajwez shuda had se zyada hai aur mahine ke mahine ka izafa 0.2% tha, jo ke pehle ke 0.1% se zyada hai.

EUR/USD ke Fundamentals:

US inflation data ka bazaar ke reaction mixed raha, EUR/USD familiar ranges mein gyrate karta raha jab investors is data ke asraat ko samajhne ki koshish kar rahe the. Halankeh Federal Reserve (Fed) se September mein rate cut ke broad expectations hain, lekin ghaflati US data market ke forecasts ko unsettled kar raha hai. Euro traders ab agle hafte ke pan-EU Gross Domestic Product (GDP) update aur aane wale Fed rate decisions par nazar rakhe hue hain.

European Central Bank (ECB) se ummeed hai ke is saal do aur interest rate cuts implement kiye jayenge. Maujooda price pressures ke barqarar rehne ki ummeed hai, aur ECB ke target levels pe wapas aane ka tajwez 2025 tak hai. Kuch ECB officials kehte hain ke market ki expectations in rate cuts ke liye maujooda economic conditions ke sath aligned hain.

Daily Time Frame Technical Outlook:

Jumeraat ko, pair ne 1.1104 ke key support level ke upar stable raha lekin din ke range mein trade nahi hua. Currency pair 14-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke neeche trade kar raha hai, jo ke 1.1041 ke aas paas hai. EUR/USD ne peak se trough tak 1.3% ki kami dekhi hai jaise ke yeh long-term averages ki taraf wapas aa raha hai. Buyers momentum banaye rakhne mein mushkil ka samna kar rahe hain jab intraday price action 20-day EMA jo ke 1.1005 par hai, ke sath takra raha hai.

Daily chart par technical indicators, jaise ke Relative Strength Index (RSI) aur Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), strong bullish divergences dikhate hain. Yeh signals is baat ka ishara dete hain ke agar EUR/USD 1.1200 ke mark ke upar chala jata hai, to bullish breakout ka potential ho sakta hai. Agar 1.1211 ke upar decisive break hota hai, to currency pair agle hafte 1.1265 ke ilaqe ki taraf barh sakta hai.

Comprehensive analysis ki buniyad par trading
EUR/USD
Assalam Alaikum! Takniki nuqtah nazar se, 4-ghante aur 1-ghante ke chart par kam hote trading volume ko dekhte hue, kal ka rujhan wazeh taur par mandi ka shikar tha. Aaj, market ki suratehal ghair yaqini hai. H4 stochastic indicator niche se ooper ki taraf roju kar chuka hai, jo ek mukhtasar muddati tezi se reversal ka ishara karta hai. H4 growth index apni sab se zyada tez readings par bana hua hai, jiska matlab hai keh haftawar chart par ooper ka rujhan ab bhi barqarar hai.
1-ghante ke chart se pata chalta hai keh Asian session ke aaghaz se hi markat ka jazbat mandi ka hai. Halankeh, kharidar euro ko 1.11300 ki satah se ooper ki taraf badhane ki koshish kar rahe hain. Haqiqat me, growth index aur trading volume filhal farokht ke ilaqe me hai, jabkeh stochastic indicator manfi ho chuke hain. Iska matlab yah hai keh is bat ka zyada imkan hai keh euro/dollar ki jodi niche ki taraf palat jayegi. Khas taur par, kaledi muzahmat aur support satah balatartib taur par 1.11300 aur 1.11020 hain.
Haqiqat me, istehkam is waqt yaumiyah chart ki bulandi par ho raha hai. Iske bad, imkan hai keh euro/dollar ki jodi kamzori ko dobara shuru karegi. Agar qimat 1.1102 ki support satah ko tod deti hai to, European currency ke 1.10742 ke nishan tak girne ki ummid hai. Itni aham rally ke sath, euro/dollar ki jodi niche ki taraf jane se pahle 1.11020 - 1.11645 ki range me ek din se zyada waqt tak sideways me trading kar sakti hai. Yaumiyah ascending channel ki nichli hadd, 1.10742 ki kami ke aaghaz ki nishandahi karegi.

biased ho." Aam tor par, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) ne is poori upward movement ko trigger kiya. Yeh indicator annual basis par forecast se 0.1% ziada kam hua aur monthly basis par bhi forecast se 0.1% kam tha. Market ne is information ko asar yeh samjha ke foran dollar bechna chahiye, kyun ke ek inflation indicator formally slow down ho gaya hai.
Filhal, U.S. inflation ke kisi bhi deceleration se dollar collapse ho sakta hai kyunki market ko Federal Reserve ki rate cut ka intezar hai pichle saat mahinon se. Hum itni strong reaction ki umeed nahi kar rahe the ek routine report par, lekin market ne phir se apni readiness dikha di ke kisi bhi formal wajah ko use kar sakti hai apni expectations ko justify karne ke liye ke Fed rate cut karega September mein. Phir bhi, EUR/USD pair ab bhi horizontal channel 1.0600–1.1000 ke andar hai.

Tuesday ko 5-minute time frame par kuch trading signals banay, aur movement kaafi favorable thi. Pehla sell signal 1.0940 ke level ke aas-paas tha, jo ke false nikla, lekin trade ko break-even par close kiya ja sakta tha kyunki price intended direction mein 15 pips se zyada move ki. Phir, ek buy signal banay 1.0940 ke level par, jis ne profit generate kiya. Us ke baad, price ne 10th level ko touch kiya, jahan manually profit realize kiya ja sakta tha.

Trading tips for Wednesday:

EUR/USD ne short-term downward trend ko hourly time frame mein break kiya, lekin ab tak 1.10 level se exceed nahi kiya. Hum samajhte hain ke euro ne apne sab bullish factors ko fully factor in kar liya hai, isliye hum sustained upward movement ki umeed nahi karte. 24-hour time frame mein ab bhi ek flat trend hai 1.06-1.10 range ke andar. Magar, market lagatar yeh dikhati hai ke U.S. inflation mein kisi bhi deceleration se dollar ki panic selling hoti hai. Aaj inflation report release hogi.

Wednesday ko, novice traders downward reversal ki umeed kar sakte hain kyunki price phir se horizontal channel ke upper boundary ke kareeb hai 1.0600–1.1000. Magar, aaj ka U.S. inflation report asaani se dollar mein ek nayi drop ko trigger kar sakta hai.

5M time frame par key levels yeh hain:

1.0526, 1.0568, 1.0611, 1.0678, 1.0726–1.0733, 1.0797–1.0804, 1.0838–1.0856, 1.0888–1.0896, 1.0940, 1.0971, 1.1011, 1.1043, aur 1.1091. Wednesday ko, Eurozone GDP ke second quarter aur industrial production par reports release karne

EUR/USD Forum Analysis,Forecast
24 AUGUST 2024


H4 timeframe ki mapping se yeh nazar aata hai ke buyers ne defense level 1.1130 ko successfully penetrate kar diya hai. Market ke halat ko dekhte hue, EUR/USD currency pair ke upar chalne ke chances hain. Is hafte market ab bhi bullish trend dikhata hai jo ke wide range ke saath move kar raha hai. Overall, market ka movement Friday raat tak bullish trend ki taraf hi lagta hai, halankeh pichle hafte ke shuru mein seller's troops ki taraf se pressure ne price ko 1.1100 tak gira diya tha. Ab humein bas upward movement ka intezar karna hai jo ke 1.1220 ke level tak pohanch sakta hai. Agar price is level ko penetrate kar deti hai, to trend ke agle kuch dinon mein barhne ke potential ki ummeed hai.

MACD Indicator par histogram bar zero level ke upar elongated hai, jo ke dikhata hai ke market ab bhi buyers ke control mein hai. Pichle kuch hafton ke trading sessions mein price movement ab bhi upar ki taraf ja rahi hai. Mere khayal se, latest market trend ke mutabiq, bullish potential ab bhi mojood hai. Chart se yeh bhi nazar aata hai ke candlestick position ab bhi 1.1150 ke price level ke upar comfortable hai, jo ke mere nazar mein trend ke phir se barhne ki indication ho sakti hai. Halankeh seller's troops ki taraf se pressure hai, lekin yeh sirf corrective movement lagti hai, kyunki uske baad trend ne significant range ke saath bullish direction mein reversal kiya hai. Agle hafte, bullish trend ke continuation ki ummeed hai.