eur/usd

EUR/USD pair ne Wednesday ko set kiye gaye new high 1.1175 se decline kiya hai 1.1130 par, jab US Dollar (USD) rise hua lekin 2024 ke new low ke qareeb reh gaya. Central currency pair thoda down trade kar raha hai 1.1130 par. US Dollar Index (DXY), jo US dollar ki value ko measures karta hai six other major currencies ke relative, ab 101.00 par trade kar raha hai.

Federal Reserve (Fed) September mein interest rates ko lower karne ki track par hai, US dollar ke liye prognosis abhi bhi bleak hai. Is move se, Fed apni first dovish interest rate decision ko almost four years mein kar raha hai. March 2022 se, US central bank ne tight monetary policy ko pursue kiya hai inflation ko reduce karne ke liye.

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes July 30-31 policy meeting se indicate karte hain ki "vast majority" Fed officials September mein policy-easing ko appropriate samajhte hain, given continued easing inflationary pressures. Yeh market speculation ko strengthen karta hai Fed interest rate cuts ke liye.

FOMC minutes ne bhi reveal kiya ki some decision-makers July se interest rates ko lower karne ke liye prepared the. Investors Fed Chair Jerome Powell ki address ko watch karenge Jackson Hole (JH) Symposium mein Friday ko 14:00 GMT se, interest rates ki direction ke liye clues ke liye. Woh September ke interest rate decreases ki extent aur Fed is year ke potential reductions ke hints bhi dhoondenge.

Investors US flash S&P Global PMI data ko watch karenge August ke liye Thursday ko 13:45 GMT se release hone ke liye. Preliminary PMI data se anticipate kiya ja raha hai ki July mein Composite PMI 54.3 se 53.5 par gir gaya.

Price Evaluation

Investors ki attention Fed Powell ki address par focused hai JH Symposium mein Friday ko, EUR/USD pair Wednesday ke trading range mein trade kar raha hai. Main currency pair year-to-date high 1.1775 par trade kar raha hai, isliye anticipate kiya ja raha hai ki woh apni four-day winning streak ko extend karega. Standard currency pair ne previously momentum gain kiya hai daily time frame breakout ke channel formation se. Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) short-to-long-term trend ko indicate kar rahe hain, upward pointing. 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) upward solid momentum ko indicate karta hai, bullish region 60.00–80.00 mein oscillating. Lekin, momentum indicator overbought zone mein hai, corrective downturn ki probability zyada hai.

Bulls euro mein round-level resistance ko retake karne ki koshish kar rahe hain 1.1200 par, clear break ke baad December 28, 2023 ke high 1.1140 se. Round-level number 1.1100 significant support zone ko serve karega downside par

USD Main aapki tawajjo M15 time frame ke linear regression channel ki taraf dilwana chahta hoon, jo ke upwards slope kar raha hai, aur ye buyers ke trend ka izhar kar raha hai. Is beech bears bhi apni activity dikha rahe hain, jo price ko neeche push karne ki koshish kar rahe hain. Main observe kar raha hoon ke price 1.09196 se neeche break kar rahi hai, jo channel ki lower boundary 1.09228 ke bahar hai, aur ye 1.09095 tak ke possible decline ka signal de sakta hai. Lekin, ye bhi worth noting hai ke 1.09095 ke level par buyers ki taraf se sellers ko strong resistance face karna par sakta hai. Analysis suggest karta hai ke 1.09095 tak sell kiya ja sakta hai, lekin main recommend karta hoon ke is level par positions close kar den ya at least order ko breakeven par secure kar len. Jaise ke hamesha, ehtiyaat aur proper risk management successful trading ke key principles hain!

Mera strategic goal hai ke main downtrend par position hold karun aur 1.09095 ke level par barrier ko break karun. Lekin, yeh zaroori hai ke hourly channel ke position ko bhi madde nazar rakha jaye kyunki yeh downward movement ko limit kar sakta hai. Isliye, main sabhi risks ko consider karta hoon aur necessary analysis conduct karta hoon taake losses ko protect aur minimize kiya ja sake.

Hourly chart par, linear regression channel bhi upwards slope kar raha hai, jo buyers ki strength ko dikhata hai jo market par dominate kar rahe hain. Is case mein, H1 channel M15 se zyada significance rakhta hai. Agar channel ki lower boundary 1.09095 tak pohanchi, to yeh ek strong buyer ka izhar ho sakta hai. Filhal, M15 par linear regression ek correction suggest karta hai, jiske baad bulls zyada active ho sakte hain. Agar market 1.09095 ke level par hold karta hai, to yeh ek buying opportunity ho sakti hai, jo ek accha idea ho sakta hai. Target 1.09425 ka hoga. Is target ko achieve karne ke baad, agar koi active seller 1.09425 ke level par appear hota hai to market ka direction bearish ho sakta hai. Agar price 1.09095 ke neeche break kar jata hai, to yeh selling ka signal ho sakta hai, kyunki yeh trend reversal ka indication de sakta hai.

Ab hum EUR/USD currency pair ke price fluctuations ka tajziya karenge. Friday ko, humne EUR/USD pair ko H1 time frame par trade kiya tha planned sideways movement ke andar, jo ke 9th din se qaim hai. Jaise expect kiya gaya tha, humne weekend se pehle is sideways pattern se exit nahi kiya, aur Monday ko yeh range mein hi continue karega. Lekin, Tuesday aur Wednesday tak, jab economic calendar active ho jayega, tab hum consolidation se break dekh sakte hain. Critical sawal yeh hai ke market kis direction mein move karega, lekin breakout direction ko predict karna mushkil hai kyunki theoretically yeh dono taraf ho sakta hai. Attached chart potential targets ko illustrate karta hai is movement ke liye. Yeh predict karna challenging hai ke EUR/USD pair ka upcoming trading week mein kis taraf break hoga, especially given ke resistance ka narrow range, jo ke 1.0966 aur 1.0947 ke beech identify kiya gaya hai, iski recent decline ke darmiyan.

Lekin, agar price is range ke upar stabilize ho jati hai, to bulls ko ek fresh local maximum ki taraf drive kar sakti hai. Main estimate karta hoon ke dono scenarios ke liye 50% chance hai, halaan ke main thoda bullish outcome ki taraf lean karta hoon. Price mein lower boundary of the triangle, jo ke minimum level 1.0449 ke ird gird hai, tak retreat karne ka potential hai. Iske bawajood, upside breakout zyada feasible lag raha hai. Price current upper boundary ko break karne ya neeche move karne ki koshish kar sakti hai, halaan ke ab tak lower boundary tak nahi pohnchi. Isliye, main maximum ko update karne ki possibility 1.1009 tak rule out nahi kar sakta. U.S. Dollar Index ko dekhte hue, weakening ke signs zahir hain. Hum index mein further decline dekh sakte hain, jo ke minimum ko 102.14 tak update kar sakta hai

Euro (EUR) Analysis

Euro ne Thursday ke subah ke pehle ghanton mein initially girawat dekhi, lekin ab yeh 1.11 level ko dobara hasil karne ki koshish kar raha hai. Agar euro is level ko successfully break kar deta hai, toh yeh 1.1140 level ki taraf jaa sakta hai aur agar yeh level bhi cross karta hai, toh 1.12 level tak pohnch sakta hai. Lekin, filhaal ke market environment mein kaafi volatility hai aur euro ne haal hi mein ek significant resistance barrier ko break kiya hai. Yeh sawaal uthata hai ke kya currency apni upward momentum ko sustain kar sakti hai.

Ek key factor jo euro ke direction ko influence kar sakta hai, woh hai agle Friday ko United States se Core PCE numbers ki release. Yeh data Federal Reserve ke liye bahut important hai kyunki yeh inflation ka primary indicator hai. Iska outcome monetary policy decisions par bhari asar daal sakta hai, aur kai traders speculate kar rahe hain ke Federal Reserve September mein rates cut kar sakta hai. Lekin, yeh bhi ho sakta hai ke market participants zyada optimistic the, kyunki futures markets filhaal year ke end tak 100 basis points ka cut expect kar rahe hain.

Agar yeh rate cuts actually implement ho jaati hain, toh yeh Federal Reserve mein panic ka signal de sakta hai, jo investors ko US dollar ki taraf wapas le aa sakta hai jab woh Treasury market mein safety dekhte hain. Kya yeh scenario actual mein hoga ya nahi, yeh abhi uncertain hai, lekin filhaal euro upar push karne ki koshish kar raha hai.

Iske bawajood, kisi bhi upward movement ki strength abhi tak determine nahi hui hai. Agar euro current level ko hold nahi kar pata, toh 1.10 level significant support zone ban sakta hai, given ke currency ka recent movement major levels ke beech mein raha hai. Market uncertainty se guzar raha hai, aur key levels jaise 1.11 aur 1.10 short-term mein Euro ke direction mein aham role play kar rahe hain.

Euro ki trading abhi bhi choppy aur naqeeb hai, jahan key levels agle direction ke indicators ke tor par kaam karte hain. Yeh pair aksar US dollar ki overall strength ya weakness ka barometer ke tor par dekha jata hai aur doosri currency pairs ke liye secondary indicator ka kaam karta hai. Euro ki ahemiyat ke wajah se, bohot se traders iski movements ko broader market trends ko gauge karne ke liye dekhte hain.
Tuesday ko, euro ne subah ke waqt zyada movement nahi dikhayi, jo ke bada ajeeb nahi hai kyunki market sentiment ko affect karne wale koi major economic news nahi thi. Market thoda tight lag rahi hai, isliye 1.11 level ko dekhna bahut zaroori hai, jo ke 4-hour aur daily charts par key area of support hai. Agar yeh level break ho jata hai, to yeh 1.10 level tak decline ka signal de sakta hai, jo market sentiment mein potential shift ko indicate kar sakta hai.

Overall, euro ka trading noisy aur sideways rehne ka imkaan hai. Yeh samajh aata hai kyunki European Central Bank (ECB) aur Federal Reserve dono loose monetary policy ko maintain kar rahe hain. Euro ke recent recovery ke bawajood, aisa lagta hai ke currency abhi current levels par kaafi overvalued ho sakti hai.

1.1250 level ek significant resistance barrier ke tor par kaam karta hai. Agar euro is level ko break kar leti hai, to yeh ek mazid strong move ke signal de sakta hai. Filhaal ke liye, market major levels ke beech move karna pasand kar rahi hai, 1.12 level ko upar test karte hue aur 1.11 level ke aas-paas support dekhte hue. Yeh range-bound behavior continued uncertainty aur decisive factors ke lack ko reflect karta hai jo currency ko kisi bhi direction mein push karen. Is environment mein, traders in key levels ko closely monitor karte rahenge signs of break ya breakdown ke liye

US Dollar apni position ko mazbooti se wapas hasil karta hai jab US core PCE inflation data par nazar rakhi ja rahi hai. EUR/USD Wednesday ke European session mein 1.1150 ke qareeb thoda correct hota hai. Yeh major currency pair tab girta hai jab US Dollar (USD) apni position ko wapas hasil karta hai jo is hafte ke naye saal ke low par pahunch gaya tha. US Dollar Index (DXY), jo Greenback ke 6 bade currencies ke khilaf value ko track karta hai, naye lows 100.50 se thoda upar 100.80 ke qareeb chala gaya hai.
US Dollar ki halki recovery abhi ke liye ek chhoti si pullback lagti hai, jo market participants ke liye bechne ke mauke ke taur par istemal ho sakta hai. Greenback ka near-term outlook abhi bhi fragile hai, khas taur par Fed ke September mein interest rates kam karne ki umeed par.

Jab Fed ke September mein rate cuts ko traders ne puri tarah se price in kar liya hai, bets ab bhi is baat par divided hain ke central bank dheere dheere 25 basis points (bps) ka cut karega ya 50 bps ka bada cut. CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq, 30-day Federal Funds Futures pricing data dikhata hai ke 50-bps ke interest rate reduction ka imkaan 34.5% hai, jabke baaki 25 bps ke cut ko zyada support milta hai.

Rate-cut size ke fresh cues ke liye, investors Friday ko United States (US) core Personal Consumption Expenditure Inflation (PCE) data ka intezar kar rahe hain. PCE Price Index report ka andaza hai ke annual core inflation 2.7% tak barh jayegi, jo June ke reading 2.6% se upar hai, aur monthly figures steady 0.2% se barh rahi hain. Agar underlying inflation mein mazeed kami dekhne ko milti hai, to Fed ke aggressive policy-easing approach ki umeed barh jayegi. Iske baraks, agar figures sticky rahte hain to jumbo rate-cut ke scenarios kamzor ho sakte hain.

EUR/USD naye highs 1.1200 se girti hai jab Euro (EUR) kamzor hota hai. Euro apne major peers ke muqablay mein underperform karta hai kyunki investors ka confidence hai ke European

Umeed hai aap theek hain. Aaj dopahar ko, main EURUSD market ki price movements ka jaiza le raha hoon. Filhal, EURUSD mein ek mazboot upward trend nazar aa raha hai, jo aage chal kar bhi izafa hone ki ummeed dilaata hai. Abhi ke liye, main sirf buying opportunities par focus karne ka plan bana raha hoon. Aaj is Monday ko, zaroori hai ke foran kisi position mein na jayein. Aam tor par, market ek chhoti si correction ka samna karti hai usse pehle ke primary trend resume ho. Baad mein, main mukhtalif timeframes par further analysis karunga. EURUSD ki current upward trend ki stability dekhte hue, aage bhi significant gains ki ummeed hai, isliye buying opportunities par concentrate karna behtar hai. Lekin, ehtiyaat bhi zaroori hai taake jaldi mein enter na karein, kyunki downward correction bhi aa sakti hai phir upward trend resume ho sakta hai. Filhal, main ek wait-and-see approach apnaunga aur baad mein market signals ke base par dobara analysis karunga.
July ka inflation data economic outlook ko aur mushkil bana raha hai. Eurostat ke mutabiq, July mein preliminary Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) 2.6% barh gaya, jo ke June mein 2.5% tha aur expected 2.4% se zyada hai. Ye izafa ECB ke September meeting mein interest rates kam karne ke potential par sawal uthata hai. Is wajah se Euro ne kuch buying interest attract kiya hai kyunki traders ECB rate cut ki ummeed ko dobara se dekh rahe hain. Market sentiment is waqt delicate hai, aur economic data rate cut ke expectations ko bohot zyada influence kar raha hai. CME FedWatch Tool ke mutabiq, traders Fed se 18 September ko quarter-point rate cut ki umeed rakhte hain, aur 50-basis-point cut ka 20% chance hai. Magar agar economic data bohot zyada kamzor hoti hai, toh market sentiment par asar pad sakta hai aur rate cuts itne relevant nahi rahenge agar koi severe economic downturn aa jaye. Isliye, investors ek challenging situation mein hain, jahan woh softer data ki ummeed kar rahe hain jo

Forex price movement ka tajziya karte hue EUR/USD ke aaj ke liye jo candlestick shape dekha gaya hai, usse yeh lagta hai ke price ke barhne ki probability ab bhi zyada hai. Yeh nishkarsh is baat par hai ke aakhri EUR/USD trade ek bullish candlestick bana. Jaise ke aakhri daily trade mein dikhaya gaya, closing price trade ke opening price se upar thi. Bullish candlestick ke formation ka matlab hai ke buyers ne market ko pichli trade mein control mein rakha. Isliye aaj ke EUR/USD price movement analysis ke mutabiq, price barhne ke taraf hi rahegi. Is hisaab se, sabse relevant transaction option buy hai. Pichle EUR/USD price movement ko dekhte hue, jab currency pair 1.1130 par open hua tha, usne lowest trading price 1.1100 par banayi. Is lowest price level par, EUR/USD ko buyers ka support mila aur phir yeh barh gaya. Barhne ka silsila tab tak chala jab tak price ne highest trading price 1.1175 ko touch kiya. Is highest price level par, EUR/USD sirf sideways move karta raha aur finally trading 1.1150 par band hui.

EUR/USD market conditions ko dekhte hue, ajeng4x ka nazariya yeh hai ke EUR/USD abhi bhi bullish hone ke liye inclined hai, isliye buy transaction option aaj ke trading mein sabse behtar hai. Lekin transaction execute karne ke liye, behtar hoga ke sahi momentum ka intezaar kiya jaye, jaise ke smaller time frame par bullish candlestick pattern ka ubharna.

Isse yeh hoga ke jo transactions kiye jayenge, unmein quality open positions milengi, ideal risk-reward calculations ke saath aur achhi winning rate probabilities ke sath. Transaction decisions lene mein sabse nazdeek ke support resistance levels ka dhyan rakhna zaroori hai. Yeh support resistance levels Bollinger Bands indicator, Moving Average, Horizontal Line ke zariye ya Psychological prices ka istemal karke dekha ja sakta

**EUR-USD Currency Pair**

Filhal, EUR-USD par sells ko prioritize kiya gaya hai kyunki odds sellers ke haq mein hain. Trading 1.11559 ke level par ho rahi hai, jahan sellers ka interest zone short position lene ka ek mauka provide karta hai. Abhi market par bearish forces dominate kar rahi hain aur bulls ki taraf se zyada resistance nazar nahi aa rahi, jo ke short positions ko advantageous banaati hai. Maine decide kiya hai ke closest 1.11385 support level par profit stop kar dunga, taake future gains ko jeopardize na karoon. 1.11888 ka level thoda zyada stop loss level se upar hoga. Sellers ka momentum abhi bhi barh raha hai aur 1.11385 ka level break ho gaya hai, jo ke situation ko indicate karta hai ke abhi ke liye EUR-USD ke growth ka trend hai. Rule phir se lagu hota hai: rumors par buy karo, facts par sell karo. September mein rate cut hone ke pura yaqeen hai, sawal yeh hai ke kitna? Zyada chances hain 25 points ke. Long-term inflation forecasts bhi 2% tak girne ka show karti hain. Aakhri baat, pichle haftay revised NFP ki statistics thi, jisme 800K jobs ka reduction dekhne ko mila jo published data se kam tha, yani labor market mein sab kuch badh raha hai. Filhal correction ke nate girawat ho rahi hai, jo ke bahut gradual hai. Mujhe lagta hai ke hum jaldi ek naye growth phase mein enter karenge aur 12th figure mein poori tarah se uthenge. Main 1.1230 ke aas paas selling try karne ke liye prepared rahunga.

EUR/USD market position apne upward trend ko maintain kar rahi hai, khaaskar jab 4-hour aur daily time frames ko analyze kiya jaye. Main weekly chart ko examine karne ka plan kar raha hoon taake ascending channel ki lower boundary ka pata chal sake. Yeh boundary 1.0999 ke support level ke aas paas ho sakti hai, jahan ek notable bearish correction ho sakti hai, jo ke upward movement ko capitalize karne ke liye potential entry points offer karegi. Pair aggressively upward trend mein hai bina kisi significant correction ke, jo ke bullish direction ko clear karta hai, lekin ek deep bearish correction jo ke 169 points tak ho sakti hai, kabhi bhi ho sakti hai, jo kuch traders ko shake out kar sakta hai. Buying ab bhi preferred strategy hai, pair ke chart ko price aur Distances indicator ke sath analyze karte hue. Price upward trend ko confirm karti hai, jo ke bulls ki advantage ko highlight karta hai bears ke muqablay mein. Zigzag line bhi upward point kar rahi hai, jo ke buy positions ke case ko reinforce karti hai.

time frame ke linear regression channel ki taraf dilwana chahta hoon, jo ke upwards slope kar raha hai, aur ye buyers ke trend ka izhar kar raha hai. Is beech bears bhi apni activity dikha rahe hain, jo price ko neeche push karne ki koshish kar rahe hain. Main observe kar raha hoon ke price 1.09196 se neeche break kar rahi hai, jo channel ki lower boundary 1.09228 ke bahar hai, aur ye 1.09095 tak ke possible decline ka signal de sakta hai. Lekin, ye bhi worth noting hai ke 1.09095 ke level par buyers ki taraf se sellers ko strong resistance face karna par sakta hai. Analysis suggest karta hai ke 1.09095 tak sell kiya ja sakta hai, lekin main recommend karta hoon ke is level par positions close kar den ya at least order ko breakeven par secure kar len. Jaise ke hamesha, ehtiyaat aur proper risk management successful trading ke key principles hain! Mera strategic goal hai ke main downtrend par position hold karun aur 1.09095 ke level par barrier ko break karun. Lekin, yeh zaroori hai ke hourly channel ke position ko bhi madde nazar rakha jaye kyunki yeh downward movement ko limit kar sakta hai. Isliye, main sabhi risks ko consider karta hoon aur necessary analysis conduct karta hoon taake losses ko protect aur minimize kiya ja sake.
Hourly chart par, linear regression channel bhi upwards slope kar raha hai, jo buyers ki strength ko dikhata hai jo market par dominate kar rahe hain. Is case mein, H1 channel M15 se zyada significance rakhta hai. Agar channel ki lower boundary 1.09095 tak pohanchi, to yeh ek strong buyer ka izhar ho sakta hai. Filhal, M15 par linear regression ek correction suggest karta hai, jiske baad bulls zyada active ho sakte hain. Agar market 1.09095 ke level par hold karta hai, to yeh ek buying opportunity ho sakti hai, jo ek accha idea ho sakta hai. Target 1.09425 ka hoga. Is target ko achieve karne ke baad, agar koi active seller 1.09425 ke level par appear hota hai to market ka direction bearish ho sakta hai. Agar price 1.09095 ke neeche break kar jata hai, to yeh selling ka signal ho sakta hai, kyunki yeh trend reversal ka indication de

US economy vacuum mein nahi chalti, aur na hi Fed ki monetary policy. Agar US regulator significant tor par interest rates kam karta hai, toh doosre central banks bhi aisa hi karenge. Lekin jab kisi bade strategy mein tabdeeli ki jaye, woh bhi kisi market disruption ke baghair, toh ehtiyaat se kaam lena zaroori hai. Jaise ke expect kiya ja sakta hai, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic aise scenario se bachna chahte hain jahan easing ke baad monetary policy ko phir se tighten karna pare. Unka khayal hai ke gradual approach behtareen hai.
Markets ko lagta hai ke Fed ki monetary expansion ki speed overestimate ki ja rahi hai aur ECB ki resolve ko underestimate. Agar German aur European inflation ka girna jaari rehta hai, toh nayi deposit rate cuts ka raasta khul jaye ga.

Germany se aane wale soft regional inflation readings European trading hours mein Euro par bojh dal rahe hain. North Rhine Westphalia aur Bavaria mein Consumer Price Index (CPI) August mein 0.1% gir gaya, jab ke Brandenburg aur Saxony mein 0.2% ka girawat dekha gaya. In figures ko dekhne ke baad, investors ke liye ye mumkin nahi ke woh Germany se aane wale country-wide CPI data par kisi khas tor se react karein.

US Bureau of Economic Analysis second estimate release karega annualized Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth ka doosray quarter ke liye, jo ke expect kiya ja raha hai ke pehle estimate ko match karega jo 2.8% par tha. Agar ismein koi noticeable revision nahi hoti, toh market participants is data ko ignore kar sakte hain aur weekly Initial Jobless Claims ke

Umeed hai aap theek hain. Aaj dopahar ko, main EURUSD market ki price movements ka jaiza le raha hoon. Filhal, EURUSD mein ek mazboot upward trend nazar aa raha hai, jo aage chal kar bhi izafa hone ki ummeed dilaata hai. Abhi ke liye, main sirf buying opportunities par focus karne ka plan bana raha hoon. Aaj is Monday ko, zaroori hai ke foran kisi position mein na jayein. Aam tor par, market ek chhoti si correction ka samna karti hai usse pehle ke primary trend resume ho. Baad mein, main mukhtalif timeframes par further analysis karunga. EURUSD ki current upward trend ki stability dekhte hue, aage bhi significant gains ki ummeed hai, isliye buying opportunities par concentrate karna behtar hai. Lekin, ehtiyaat bhi zaroori hai taake jaldi mein enter na karein, kyunki downward correction bhi aa sakti hai phir upward trend resume ho sakta hai. Filhal, main ek wait-and-see approach apnaunga aur baad mein market signals ke base par dobara analysis karunga.
July ka inflation data economic outlook ko aur mushkil bana raha hai. Eurostat ke mutabiq, July mein preliminary Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) 2.6% barh gaya, jo ke June mein 2.5% tha aur expected 2.4% se zyada hai. Ye izafa ECB ke September meeting mein interest rates kam karne ke potential par sawal uthata hai. Is wajah se Euro ne kuch buying interest attract kiya hai kyunki traders ECB rate cut ki ummeed ko dobara se dekh rahe hain. Market sentiment is waqt delicate hai, aur economic data rate cut ke expectations ko bohot zyada influence kar raha hai. CME FedWatch Tool ke mutabiq, traders Fed se 18 September ko quarter-point rate cut ki umeed rakhte hain, aur 50-basis-point cut ka 20% chance hai. Magar agar economic data bohot zyada kamzor hoti hai, toh market sentiment par asar pad sakta hai aur rate cuts itne relevant nahi rahenge agar koi severe economic downturn aa jaye. Isliye, investors ek challenging situation mein hain, jahan woh softer data ki ummeed kar rahe hain jo

EUR/USD ka jor par Wednesday ko aik chota sa pullback dekha gaya, jo recent rally ke baad aya jo saal ke naye highs tak pohncha. Yeh girawat zyada tar Federal Reserve (Fed) ke September mein rate cut ke ummeed ki wajah se thi, jisne market ka risk appetite kam kar diya. Halanki mid-week ke dauran economic calendar zyada busy nahi hai, lekin Thursday ko US GDP data ka release kafi closely dekha jayega. Magar, consensus forecast yeh hai ke doosre quarter ki GDP growth 2.8% ke aas-paas rehne ki umeed hai, jo market reactions ko zyada significant banane se rokenge. Week ka key data release Friday ko US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation data hoga. Investors inflation ke decelerate hone ke signs ka intezar kar rahe hain, ya phir yeh dekhna chahte hain ke inflation itni tez nahi ho rahi ke Fed ko 18 September ko rate cut na implement karna pade. Technical perspective se dekha jaye to EUR/USD jor filhal 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) 1.0850 ke aas-paas test kar raha hai. Agar decline jari rahi, to 50-day EMA ke taraf 1.0940 ke aas-paas retreat ho sakta hai.
Recent pullback ke bawajood, EUR/USD jor August mein strong gains dikhata raha, 1.0776 se le kar 1.1200 ke aas-paas tak rally karte hue. Yeh performance euro ke liye positive outlook ko suggest karti hai. Lekin, caution zaroori hai kyunke Relative Strength Index (RSI) aur Stochastics overbought conditions dikhate hain, jo potential selling pressure ko indicate karte hain. 1.1240-1.1274 ka area, jo 2021-2022 ke downtrend ka 61.8% Fibonacci retracement aur 2022 low ki trendline ko shamil karta hai, is waqt pair ke liye resistance provide kar sakta hai. Agar is area ko break kiya, to further gains ke liye potential upside targets 1.1340 se 1.1370 ke beech ho sakte hain. Magar, 1.1480 ka area aik significant hurdle ho sakta hai jo upward momentum ko limit kar sakta hai. In sab factors ke ilawa, geopolitical tensions aur global economic uncertainties bhi EUR/USD pair ko influence kar sakti hain. Ukraine ka ongoing conflict, trade disputes, aur potential global recession ke concerns currency market mein volatility create kar sakte hain. Overall, EUR/USD jor economic, geopolitical, aur technical factors ka combination se influence hoga. Investors ko in developments ko closely monitor

EUR/USD currency pair ke price fluctuations ka tajziya kehta hai ke kal US GDP aur benefits data ka release hone wala hai. Agar US GDP figures strong aate hain, toh dollar ki current technical correction ko dekhte hue EUR/USD pair 1.1029 tak gir sakta hai. Lekin analyst ka target 1.1079 ka hai, jahan do trend lines intersect karti hain, aur ye ek possible rebound aur local reversal point ho sakta hai. H4 chart par MACD indicator near kar raha hai ek reversal ko, aur agar 1.1079 tak pohonchta hai, toh medium-term trend reverse ho sakta hai, jo shayad price ko ek higher level par wapas le aayega. Lekin khabrein dono taraf ja sakti hain, jo pair ko phir se ek lower level par push kar sakti hain. Is waqt zaiyata focus European economy par nahi hai, balki dollar aur Federal Reserve par hai, jo akhir kar EUR/USD ki direction ko tay karega. Zigzag pattern ke tajziye ke liye D1 chart ka rukh kiya gaya hai, jo kehta hai ke 1.1147 ko break karna pehla ishara tha ke bullish trend weaken ho raha hai, magar ab critical zone 1.1097 par hai. Is provided text ke mutabiq, ek correction ki umeed hai, jo current market trend ke extension ko allow kar sakti hai. Aam tor par pehli wave ke baad ek doosri wave follow karti hai, is liye agar price 1.1097 tak aati hai, toh hume ek pullback ki umeed karni chahiye pehle ke phir aur decline ho. Focus ab 1.1097 level ke behavior par hai. Ye expect karna reasonable hai ke price 1.1086 tak gir sakta hai, jahan FE 200 located hai. Agar bearish pattern confirm hota hai, toh aur selling pressure aasakta hai pullback ke baad, halan ke ek sharp drop ke chances kam hain. Is light mein, plan ye hai ke buying continue rahegi, magar stop-loss orders set karte hue ziata ehtiyaat barhte jayegi, khaas tor par jab ek pehle trade open kiya gaya tha us waqt stop-loss set nahi kiya gaya tha.

ham EUR/USD pair ky bary main bat karen gay EUR/USD market mein price movements ka tajziya kar raha hoon. Is waqt, EUR/USD mein mazboot upward trend nazar aa raha hai, jo mazeed izafay ki imkaan ko zahir karta hai. Filhal, mera irada sirf buying opportunities par tawajjoh dene ka hai. Monday ki is shuruat mein, munasib yeh hai ke fauran koi position lene mein jaldbazi na ki jaye. Aksar market apne bunyadi trend mein dobara aane se pehle aik chhoti si correction se guzar jati hai. Baad mein, main mukhtalif timeframes par mazeed tajziya karoonga. EUR/USD ki maujooda upward trend ki stability ko dekh kar, mazeed izafay ki ahm imkaanat hain, isliye mein buying opportunities par tawajjoh dene ki salahiyat deta hoon. Lekin sikke karna zaruri hai, taake jaldbazi mein entry na ho, kyunke ek downward correction bhi mumkin hai is trend ke dobara shuru honay se pehle. Filhal, main wait-and-see approach apna raha hoon aur market signals ki buniyad par is dopeher dobara tajziya karoonga. July ke inflation data ne economic soorat-e-haal ko mazeed complex bana diya hai. Eurostat ke mutabiq, preliminary Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) July mein saal ba saal 2.6% barh gaya hai, jo June ke 2.5% se zyada hai aur expected 2.4% ko bhi pichay chhor gaya. Is izafay ne European Central Bank (ECB) ke September ki aayan wali meeting mein interest rates kam karne ke imkaan par sawal uthaye hain. Is sab ke nateeje mein, Euro mein kuch buying interest aaya hai kyunke traders ECB ke rate cut ke imkaan ko dobara soch rahe hain. Market sentiment is waqt nazuk hai, aur economic data rate cuts ke imkaanaat par asarandaz ho rahi hai. CME FedWatch Tool ke mutabiq, traders 18 September ko Fed se quarter-point rate cut ki tawakkoh kar rahe hain, aur 20% imkaan hai ke 50-basis-point tak ka bada cut ho sakta hai. Lekin, agar economic data mein kafi kamzori aati hai, to yeh market sentiment ko narmi mein le aayega, aur rate cuts ki ahmiyat kum ho sakti hai agar koi shadid maashi girawat hoti hai. Sarafroon ke liye yeh waqt mushkil hai, kyunke woh aise data ki umeed kar rahe hain jo rate cuts ko sahulat de lekin kisi gehri maashi buhran ki taraf ishaara na kare. EUR/USD ki soorat-e-haal dilchaspi se bharpoor hai kyunke aik taraf agar hum bari tasveer dekhen to abhi yeh nahi kaha ja sakta ke asal ascending movement toot chuka hai. Lekin dusri taraf, kal humne ek munasib girawat dekhi jo 1.11 ke qareeb platform chor gayi, aur isliye targets bhi usi taraf hain. Mazid is mein dollar ki mazbooti bhi shamil hai jo kal dekhi gayi. Barhaal, yeh dekhna zaruri hai ke aaj dollar ka sauda kaise hota hai, kyunke aaj US se ka

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۔ Tuesday ke trading session mein New York mein, EUR/USD currency pair mein aik nihayat buland izafa dekha gaya, 1.1010 ke ahem resistance level ke qareeb pounch gaya. Yeh izafa Euro ki qeemat mein US Dollar ke muqable mein taqatwar izafa ko numaya karta hai. Mojudah doran mein, EUR/USD 1.0926 ke qareeb trading ho raha hai, forex market mein barqarar bullish momentum ka dikhawa kartay hue. Euro ki qadr ka is izafa ne US Dollar par barhti hui dabao ke sath aiqtadar-e-uzma aur karobar ke dataon ke zariye chal raha pressure ko milta hai. US Economic Indicators aur Inke Asar Dollar Par
Haal hi mein aaye hue economic data United States ke Dollar par numaya asar andaz hue hain. July mein ISM Services PMI 48.8 par gira, jo April 2020 se sab se tezi se girawat thi. Yeh huliya kisi had tak umeed se kum tha jo 52.5 tha aur June ke 53.8 se gir gaya tha. Is ke ilawa, ADP Employment report ne bataya ke US private jagahon par sirf 150,000 naye jobs shamil hue July mein - jise 160,000 ka tasavvur kiya gaya tha, aur yeh paanch mahinon mein sab se choti izafa tha. Yeh data points kamzor hote hui economic conditions ka ishara dete hain aur US Dollar par pressure dalte hain.

European Market Sentiment aur Bond Yield Spread

Europe mein, market sentiment bond yields ke tabadlay se mutasir hota hai. French aur German 10 saal ke hakoomati bonds ke darmiyan yield spread haal hi mein karib 71 basis points tak ghata, jo pichle mahine ke end par 82 basis points se nichay tha. Yeh kam hone wala spread yeh zahir karta hai ke investors mein barhtay huay itminan hai ke France ke far-right RN party ko majlis-e-shura mein bari bahali hasil karna mushkil hai. Yeh sentiment mein tabdeeli ne France ke assets ko taqat di hai aur Euro ki puri shidat mein pechida hai.

EUR/USD ki Technical Analysis

Ek technical lehaz se, EUR/USD pair taqatwar bullish trends ka dikhawa kar raha hai. Yeh behad nichay 1.1000 ke levels se tezi se ubhar raha hai, chand waqton ke liye 1.0950 se oopar chala gaya hai. Pair ne 200-din EMA par 1.0826 se bhi guzar gaya hai, jo taqatwar short-term bullish sentiment ko zahir karta hai. Yeh technical tor par breakthrough yeh darust karta hai ke upri trend jari reh sakta hai, traders resistance levels aur potential breakout points ko qareeb se nigrani me rakhte hue.

Ikhtisar mein, Euro ke US Dollar ke muqable mein haal ki quwwat ko kamzor US economic indicators aur European markets mein itminani sentiment ka milaap mana jata hai. Jab EUR/USD pair ahem resistance levels ke qareeb pounchega, market participants qareeb aanay wale economic data aur geopolitical developments ko nigrani me rakhtay hue is currency pair ke mustaqbil ke harkaton par asar dalne wale cheezon ka tawaju se intezar karenge