یورپی ڈالر بمقابلہ امریکی ڈالر

Demand area 1.0958 ko penetrate karne mein na-kaami ke baad, EURUSD currency pair phir se barh gaya hai. Kal Friday ko EURUSD ki movement bhi kaafi high thi kyunki candle 1.0971 se 1.1028 tak move kar gayi. Agar isey calculate karein, toh EURUSD ne lagbhag 60 pips ki utri hai. Thodi si aur movement ke baad, candle resistance 1.1048 par touch kar sakti hai. Do din pehle, EURUSD ka movement kaafi gehra gir gaya tha, lekin yeh zyada der tak nahi raha kyunki movement sirf 1.0958 tak hi pohnchi. Shayad EURUSD ka girna sirf ek correction hai.
H1 timeframe se analyze karte hue, mera tajziya yeh hai ke jab tak demand area 1.0958 ko penetrate nahi kiya gaya, EURUSD ke barhne ke moqe ab bhi kaafi hain. Lekin, kyunki ab candle shoulder area mein hai, mujhe ehtiyaat baratni chahiye kyunki yahaan retracement ho sakta hai jo EURUSD ke girne ka sabab ban sakta hai. Shoulder 1.1028 par hai. Agar EURUSD shoulder area mein direction reverse karti hai, toh shayad EURUSD pehle 1.0930 tak gir sakti hai. Umeed hai ke shoulder area jaldi penetrate ho jayega kyunki lambi muddat mein mera tajziya hai ke EURUSD barhega.

Ichimoku indicator se, candle position already tenkan sen aur kijun sen lines ke upar hai, jo is baat ki ishara hai ke future mein EURUSD ke barhne ke moqe hain. White kumo bhi penetrate ho chuki hai aur brown rang mein badal gayi hai, jo buyer pressure ke strong hone ka sign hai. Lekin, shoulder area mein candle ke hone se, yeh mumkin hai ke dono lines intersect kar jayein aur EURUSD phir se gir jaye.

Stochastic indicator se yeh pata chalta hai ke EURUSD ab overbought state mein hai. H1 timeframe se dekha jaye toh line level 80 ko penetrate kar chuki hai. Lekin, filhal line abhi bhi upwards facing hai halanke condition overbought hai. Abhi tak niche jaane ke koi nishan nahi hain. Decline tab hoga jab line down facing hogi.

Toh aaj ke analysis ka nateeja yeh hai ke EURUSD currency pair Monday ko ab bhi barh sakta hai, lekin candle line shoulder area 1.1028 ko penetrate kar sakti hai. Agar yeh area penetrate nahi hota, toh EURUSD phir se gir jayega. Trend abhi bhi bullish hai, isliye main ab bhi buy position open karne ki sifarish karta hoon. Aap take profit target ko nearest resistance 1.1243 par rakh sakte hain aur stop loss ko nearest support 1.0945 par place kar sakte hain.

Fundamental Analysis

Wednesday ke North American session mein EUR/USD pair 1.1130 ke aas paas rahe, jo ke is saal ka ab tak ka sab se high level hai. US Dollar (USD) pressure mein hai, halankeh Federal Reserve (Fed) ke interest rate reduction ke bare mein barhti hui confidence ke bawajood jo September mein hone ki umeed hai. Primary currency pair 2024 ke highs 1.1140 ko target kar raha hai. US Dollar Index (DXY), jo ke US dollar ki value ko chhe doosri major currencies ke muqablay mein measure karta hai, ab 101.30 ke aas paas trade kar raha hai, jo ke ek naye saat mahine ke low par hai.

Investors ko lagta hai ke Federal Reserve September mein interest rates kam karega kyunki US economy mein inflationary pressures dheere dheere kam ho rahe hain aur labour market conditions bhi thanday ho rahe hain. Chahe yeh pehla interest rate cut bada ho ya dheere dheere, traders ab bhi divided hain. CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq, 50 basis points (bps) ke interest rate drop ka 30.5% chance hai. Dusre log ek complex 25-basis-point reduction ka intezaar kar rahe hain.

Investor ki nazar Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ke July policy meeting ke minutes par hogi jo Wednesday ke session mein release honge. Yeh minutes 18:00 GMT par release honge. Aathve consecutive meeting ke liye, Federal Reserve ne apne benchmark lending rates ko 5.25% se 5.50% ke range mein barqarar rakha.

Technical Outlook

Jab FOMC minutes release hongi, EUR/USD apne saal ke highest point 1.1140 ki taraf barh raha hai. Daily time frame mein channel formation se breakout ke baad, leading currency pair ko momentum mila hai. 20-day aur 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs upar ki taraf trend kar rahe hain aur 1.0970 aur 1.0900 ke aas paas hain, jo ek bullish general trend ko indicate karte hain.

14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) bullish region 60.00–80.00 mein oscillate kar raha hai, jo ke strong upward momentum ko darshata hai. Euro mein bulls 1.1140 high ko firmly breach karne ke baad 1.1200 round-level barrier ke nazdeek aayenge. 15 August ko 1.0950 par jo low tha, wo downside par ek crucial support level hoga.

Budh ke din American session mein, currency pair kareeb 1.1150 tak barh gaya jab ke US Dollar (USD) mazid mazboot hua. Yeh uptick tab aaya jab investors ne apni tawajju Federal Reserve ke aane wale interest rate decision par mor di. US Dollar Index (DXY), jo ke Greenback ko chay badi currencies ke muqable mein measure karta hai, kareeb 101.20 tak surge kar gaya. Expectations hain ke Federal Reserve apne interest rates ko 5.25%-5.50% range mein barqarar rakhega, lekin market participants eagerly Fed ke monetary policy statement aur Chair Jerome Powell ki press conference ka intezar kar rahe hain taake aane wale rate cuts ke hawale se mazeed insights mil saken.

ECB aur Fed Policies: EUR/USD Movements par Asar Daalne Walay Key Factors

Is ke baraks, Euro (EUR) downward pressure ka samna kar raha hai ECB ke expected rate cuts ki wajah se. Guzishta hafte, ECB ne rates ko change nahi kiya, lekin recent kamzor German IFO survey results aur soft economic data ne mazeed rate cut ke liye expectations ko barhawa diya hai. Traders ab Germany aur Eurozone ke second quarter ke preliminary Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reports ka intezar kar rahe hain. Agar GDP figures expectations se behtar aye to yeh Euro ko support de sakti hain, aur bearish sentiment ko thoda balance kar sakti hain.

Market analysts yeh anticipate karte hain ke Fed apni September meeting mein rate cuts par discussion shuru karne ke liye signal de sakta hai, kyunki inflation ko 2% target ke qareeb lane mein progress hui hai aur labor market ke liye risks barh gaye hain. Inflation fears kam hue hain kyunki input prices mein aakhri chand mahino mein significant kamiyan aayi hain. Preliminary Q2 GDP report ne Price Index mein deceleration dikhaya hai jo ke 2.3% tak aagaya hai, jab ke estimates 2.6% aur previous reading 3.1% thi.

Technical Outlook: EUR/USD Key Support aur Resistance Levels ka Samna Kar Raha Hai

Is waqt EUR/USD kareeb 1.1140 par trade kar raha hai. Pair ab Symmetrical Triangle formation ke andar hai daily chart par, jab ke breakout ko sustain karne mein kamiyab nahi hua. EUR/USD ne apni decline ko 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke neeche extend kar diya hai, jo ke kareeb 1.1123 par positioned hai. Agar downward trend jaari rehti hai, to currency pair round-number support levels ko 1.0900 aur 1.0800 par test kar sakta hai.



14-day Commodity Channel Index (CCI) 40.00-60.00 range tak retreat ho gaya hai, jo ke bullish momentum ke kamzor hone ki nishandahi karta hai. Upper side par, 1.1200 level Euro bulls ke liye ek significant resistance barrier hai, jise overcome karna zaroori hoga agar woh upper push karna chahte hain.

Is haftay ke shuruati do dino mein EURUSD market ka rukh zyada tar bullish raha hai, jo ke pichle 3 hafton se chalti aa rahi upar ki trend ko continue kar raha hai. Is haftay ki bullish movement ne pichle haftay ke sabse unche price limit 1.1046 ko paar karte hue ek naya uncha price area bana diya hai jo 1.1131 ke range mein hai. Dekhna yeh hai ke agle bullish efforts kaise continue karte hain, khaaskar is haftay ke beech mein high impact news releases ke saath.

H4 TF (time frame) ke hawale se, bullish movement MA 50 (red) ke control mein nazar aa rahi hai. Abhi ka izafa overbought area RSI 70 level ke upar ja chuka hai aur MA 50 ke limit se kafi door hai. Yeh further bullish efforts ke liye ek rukawat ban sakta hai aur ek limited bearish correction phase ka signal ho sakta hai. Agar bearish correction hota hai, to niche target 1.1088 ke aas-paas ke hidden demand area ko test karne ka hai ya 1.1048 ke rbs area tak pahunchne ka hai.

Agar price MA50 (red) ke niche 1.0950 ke support area se neeche girti hai to buying transactions ka dhyan rakha jaye. Short term mein, bearish correction movement follow karte hue sell position consider ki ja sakti hai, jahan sell entry range 1.1120-1.1130 ho sakti hai aur target decrease TP 1 1.1090 aur TP 2 1.1050 ke range mein ho sakta hai. Sell plan ke liye risk loss limit is haftay ke high area 1.1150 ke upar rakha jaye. Re-entry buy area ko 1.1050-1.1080 ke range mein consider kiya ja sakta hai. Is target increase ke liye price level 1.1130 ke highest price limit ko reach karne ka plan banaya ja sakta hai aur long-term buy option ke liye previous year ke highest price limit 1.1270 tak pahunchne ka plan ho sakta hai.

EUR/USD ke Foreign Exchange ka Technical Analysis

Bullish momentum ke darmiyan, EUR/USD pair $1.1080 resistance se upar chali gayi, jo ke qareeban aath maheenon mein apna sabse buland satah chhoo rahi hai. Yeh is wajah se hua kyunke traders ka khayal hai ke Federal Reserve ke interest rate cut karne ke intezaar ne dollar par dabao dala hai. Traders yeh umeed kar rahe hain ke September mein 25 basis points ka cut hoga, jabke 24.5% chance hai ke yeh cut 50 basis points tak barhaya ja sakta hai, aur saal ke aakhir tak 90 basis points se zyada easing ka bhi intezar hai.

Is haftay, tawajju Federal Reserve ke Jackson Hole symposium par hai, jahan US central bank ke Chairman Jerome Powell Jumay ko takreer karenge. Europe mein, business activity aur wage growth se mutaliq key data aane wala hai, jo ke European Central Bank ke September ke faislay ko mutasir kar sakta hai. Financial markets 2024 mein ECB ke 65 basis points ke rate cuts ko price kar rahe hain, jo do 25 basis points ke cuts aur teesray cut ke 60% chance mein translate hota hai.

EUR/USD exchange rate ne charts par significant resistance ko paar kar liya hai aur aglay kuch dino mein ek aur key level ko cross kar sakti hai, jo December 2023 ke high 1.1140 tak wapas janay ke imkaniyat ko zahir karta hai, aur yeh level medium ya longer term mein bhi recover ho sakta hai. Technically, European single currency, yani euro, ne pichlay hafte 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ke resistance ko faisla kun tor diya tha, jabke US dollar kamzor hua tha US ke producer aur consumer price figures ke baad, jo ke mazid contraction ka imkaniyat zahir karte hain.

Economic data ne markets ko yeh confidence diya hai ke Federal Reserve shayad saal ke aakhir tak US interest rates mein 100 basis points tak ka cut kar sakta hai, jo ke US dollar ke interest rate advantage ko kam kar sakta hai doosri currencies ke muqable mein, aur yeh US dollar ke outlook ke liye ek aham taraqqi ban sakti hai.

Overall, 1.1140 aur July 2023 ke high 1.1275 tak rally ka imkaan hai. Pichlay hafte ka low 1.0880 ab key support ban gaya hai.

Dono EUR aur USD S&P PMI surveys ke liye bohat sensitive rehne walay hain jo ke Thursday ko aane hain. Agar economic momentum mein kami ka koi ishara mila, toh dono currencies par dabao par sakta hai, lekin agar EUR/USD weak hota hai, toh USD zyada react karega kisi bhi negative surprise par EUR ke muqable mein.




Haan, lekin is haftay ka sabse bara event Fed ka Jackson Hole symposium hai, jahan Fed Chairman Jerome Powell Jumay ko public talk karenge. Market yeh dekh raha hoga ke woh is saal ke 100bp rate cut ki umeedon ko tasleem karenge ya rad karenge. Lekin ek aur factor jo aglay hafto aur maheenon mein euro ke liye support aur dollar ke liye bearish ban sakta hai, woh hai US election polls ka latest development, jahan ab Democratic Party ki candidate Kamala Harris ko chand key swing states mein former President Donald Trump se aage dikhaya ja raha hai.

EURO/USD Analysis

EURO dollar girawat ka silsila jari rakhta hai jabke kal, 19 August 2024, ko apni inclined channel ko todte hue EURO dollar ke daily chart par ek nayi red candle bani. Hourly support level 1.0930 ko todne ke baad, price 1.1020 tak pohonch gayi aur phir correction shuru hui. Aagay correction ka silsila aur iski takmeel ek entry position ka izhar kar sakti hai. Abhi ke liye, behtar hoga ke dekhain market kaise behave karta hai aur price kis tarah se develop hoti hai.

Jahan tak EUR/USD currency pair ka taluq hai, sales behtar lagti hain resistance level 1.1080 se, aur 1.0950 ke level se jahan moving average price se upar hai, jo overbought conditions ko zahir karta hai. Target ko najdeek support level 1.0880 par adjust karna chahiye, aur stop loss ko 1.0940 par. Iske ilawa, parabolic indicator bhi pair ke purchase ko confirm karta hai. Agar hum chhoti time frame mein dekhen, toh 15-minute chart mein moving average price chart se upar hai, jo selling ko confirm karta hai. 1.0965 ka level sales ke liye move kar sakta hai.



Sales par profits ko 1.1050 par aur stop losses ko qareeban 1.1090 par adjust karein. Sales ka imkaan zyada hai jab hourly aur M15 charts ko madde nazar rakha jaye. Yeh baat zaroori hai ke is time frame mein do extremes hain: 1.1050 neeche aur 1.1100 upar. Jaise ke aap dekh sakte hain, hum filhal do aag ke darmiyan kaam kar rahe hain. Koi bhi khabar jo US Federal Reserve ke monetary policy ke sakhti ke imkaan par ho, sirf Tuesday ko saamne aayegi jab Jerome Powell US Congress se khitab karenge. Yaqeenan, abhi yeh kehna mushkil hai ke buy karna chahiye ya nahi.

Subah bakhair, pyare traders. Aap sab kaise hain? Umeed hai ke aap theek honge aur aapka din acha guzray. Aaj is trading week ka doosra din hai, aur aaj main EURUSD pair ka analysis karne ki koshish karunga, jo abhi hawa mein uraan bhar raha hai, kyunke kal ke din price barh gayi thi aur $1.1088 ke level ko test karne chali gayi. Ab mazeed behas ke liye, aayiye attached chart par ek nazar daaltay hain.




EURUSD Daily Chart Ka Jayeza:

Attached chart ke mutabiq, hum dekh sakte hain ke kal EURUSD pair mein unexpected price increase dekha gaya, lekin jaisa ke hum dekh sakte hain, price ne channel ke upper limit ko successfully break kiya aur ab market achi position mein trade kar rahi hai. Ab wedge ke upper side mein breakout hua hai, jo ke ek provocative scam bhi ho sakta hai (zyada imkaan yeh hi lagta hai, magar main galat bhi ho sakta hoon). Halanki abhi tak koi clear sell signal nahi mila, price kisi bhi waqt mazeed barh sakti hai. Is situation mein aap par hai ke aap kitni der market mein rehna chahte hain. Lekin agar yeh breakout provocative hota hai, toh jald hi humein sell ka signal mil sakta hai. Shuru mein, hum price ke girawat ko 1.1027 tak dekh sakte hain, jahan se hum aagay ki direction ka taayun karenge, aur agar yeh level break hota hai aur neeche consolidate hota hai, toh hum 1.0945 tak ka full rollback dekh sakte hain. Lekin jab tak price 1.1027 ke upar hai aur lower ascending trend wedge ke upar hai, to purchases ko priority daini chahiye. Dusri taraf, MACD positive lag raha hai, jo ke mazeed barhawa ke imkaanat ka izhar karta hai.

Aaj ke liye itna hi. Umeed hai ke yeh analysis hum sab ke liye mufeed sabit hoga.

EUR/USD

Aaj ka din umeed hai ke bohot se log market mein hote dekhenge. Abhi ke waqt, candle 1.1070 ke price range mein hai. Filhal candle qareebi resistance ko break nahi kar payi hai. Agar yeh area break hota hai, toh price mazeed barh sakti hai. H1 time frame aur indicator ke mutabiq, candle ka position already line ke upar hai, jo ke ek bullish trend ka ishara hai. Stochastic Indicator bhi oopar ki taraf ishara kar raha hai, jo ke price ke barhnay ki nishani hai.

H1 time frame ki tarah, h4 time frame par bhi candle ka position -sen aur -sen lines ke upar hai, jo ke large time frames mein bhi ek bullish trend ka ishara hai. Stochastic indicator bhi abhi tak oopar ki taraf hai, isliye agar aaj ke din ke nateeje mein dekha jaye, toh EURUSD ke mazeed barhnay ke imkaanaat hain. Behtareen yeh hoga ke 1.0950 ke support area ko break hone ka intezaar karen pehle ke aap Sell position open karen. Agar yeh break nahi hota, toh aapko abhi sell position open nahi karni chahiye. Jab bhi yeh break hota hai, toh main aglay support level 1.0730 par sell karunga.




Is waqt market 1.1060 par hai, isliye aap is price ke qareeb Buy position open kar sakte hain. Agar yeh price barhti hai, toh yeh apna target achieve kar sakti hai, agar kam az kam 1.0995 tak barhti hai. Agar price is area ko penetrate kar leti hai, toh yeh 1.1075 tak bhi barh sakti hai. Mera risk limit support level 1.1070 par hoga. Price action ka move karna aur downside reversal convergence ka neckline break karna, jo ke 1.1080 par hai, ek solid bullish harmonic triangle pattern create karega H4 time frame par, jaise ke buyers react karte hain 50-day simple moving average ke 1.1120 tak pohonchnay par.

EUR/USD currency pair ka price action hamari analysis aur discussion ka maud hai. Yeh currency pair abhi bhi upar ki taraf barh raha hai aur local ceiling ko 1.1132 tak push kar raha hai. Ab ek technical correction ka waqt lagta hai. Aaj raat ko US Federal Reserve minutes ka release is par significant impact daal sakta hai, jabke Europe se koi khaas events nahi hain. Is wajah se hamara pair aur doosri major currencies holding pattern mein hain. Higher H4 time frame pe pehle analyze kiya gaya tha ke yeh Fibonacci range 100-161.7 ke andar develop ho raha hai. Intraday pivot points horizontal dotted lines ke roop mein hain, aur aaj 1.1165 ki taraf bounce dekhna beneficial hoga. Price Action method is scenario mein candle configuration worth analyzing ho sakti hai.

Indicator ke zariye current price movements ko forecast karna mera plan hai, jo moving average analysis par based hai. Abhi channel upar ki taraf point kar raha hai, jo buyers ke dominance ko sellers par darshata hai. Thode bearish pullbacks ke bawajood, bulls ab bhi strong hain aur bears ko control chhodne ko tayyar nahi hain. Zigzag line ke direction ke mutabiq, abhi long positions kholna advisable hai. MACD aur RSI indicators jo TMA signals ko refine karte hain, long buy zone mein hain. Main apne open order ko 61.7% Fibonacci level, jo ke 1.11704 ke aas paas hai, tak pohnchne par close karne ka plan bana raha hoon. Yeh bhi dekhna zaroori hai ke sirf downturn nahi, balki alternate scenarios bhi consider kiye jayein. Agli trading session mein activity barh sakti hai, recent upward indications ke madde nazar. Jab tak EUR/USD 1.108 tak nahi pohnchta, tab tak buying ka intezar karna behtar hoga. Bearish trend shayad continue na ho, aur critical support level ke chalte bullish side pe reversal ka potential hai.

EUR/USD ke price ke rujhan ka tajziya karte hue, hum dekh rahe hain ke euro/dollar jorha ne local low 1.0669 se upar ki taraf tez rawani dikhai, aur ek mazboot upar ki price channel establish ki. Filhal, yeh jorha 1.1114 ke aas-paas trade kar raha hai. Technical nazariyat se dekha jaye, to yeh mumkin hai ke euro/dollar jorha aage bhi barhe, jahan sab se recent local high 1.1139 hai. Is liye, 1.1114 se ab yeh strategic ho sakta hai ke buying barhayi jaye aur 1.1139 ya thoda zyada par profits secure kiye jayein. Lekin, ek alternative scenario yeh bhi ho sakta hai ke euro/dollar jorha apni current position se correction dekhay, jo shayad resistance line 1.1099 ya 1.1079 ke aas-paas test kare.

Yeh zaroori hai ke khabrein volatility ko barha sakti hain, lekin movement ka direction volume par bohot zyada depend karta hai. Maine pehle Chicago Board options analysis ka istemal karke key levels aur targets identify kiye, lekin bina is ke bhi fundamental analysis ke zariye profitable trades mil sakti hain. Technical analysis ke mutabiq, chaar ghante ke timeframe mein EUR/USD price ek trend continuation pattern—bullish flag—bana rahi hai. Is upward movement ka target 1.1129 aur 1.1142 hai. Agar price Ichimoku cloud aur moving average ke upar rahe, to iska matlab hai ke medium-term uptrend hai. MACD indicator (12.26.8) upar ki taraf point kar raha hai, jo bullish sentiment ko reinforce karta hai. Is waqt, CCI 10 indicator niche ki taraf point kar raha hai, jo current correction ko indicate karta hai. Long positions relevant hain, jabke short positions sirf tab honi chahiye jab price Kijun-sen line ke neeche break ho aur MACD indicator (12.26.8) niche ki taraf ho.

EUR/USD currency pair ka price action hamari analysis aur discussion ka maud hai. Yeh currency pair abhi bhi upar ki taraf barh raha hai aur local ceiling ko 1.1132 tak push kar raha hai. Ab ek technical correction ka waqt lagta hai. Aaj raat ko US Federal Reserve minutes ka release is par significant impact daal sakta hai, jabke Europe se koi khaas events nahi hain. Is wajah se hamara pair aur doosri major currencies holding pattern mein hain. Higher H4 time frame pe pehle analyze kiya gaya tha ke yeh Fibonacci range 100-161.7 ke andar develop ho raha hai. Intraday pivot points horizontal dotted lines ke roop mein hain, aur aaj 1.1165 ki taraf bounce dekhna beneficial hoga. Price Action method is scenario mein candle configuration worth analyzing ho sakti hai.

Indicator ke zariye current price movements ko forecast karna mera plan hai, jo moving average analysis par based hai. Abhi channel upar ki taraf point kar raha hai, jo buyers ke dominance ko sellers par darshata hai. Thode bearish pullbacks ke bawajood, bulls ab bhi strong hain aur bears ko control chhodne ko tayyar nahi hain. Zigzag line ke direction ke mutabiq, abhi long positions kholna advisable hai. MACD aur RSI indicators jo TMA signals ko refine karte hain, long buy zone mein hain. Main apne open order ko 61.7% Fibonacci level, jo ke 1.11704 ke aas paas hai, tak pohnchne par close karne ka plan bana raha hoon. Yeh bhi dekhna zaroori hai ke sirf downturn nahi, balki alternate scenarios bhi consider kiye jayein. Agli trading session mein activity barh sakti hai, recent upward indications ke madde nazar. Jab tak EUR/USD 1.108 tak nahi pohnchta, tab tak buying ka intezar karna behtar hoga. Bearish trend shayad continue na ho, aur critical support level ke chalte bullish side pe reversal ka potential hai.

EUR/USD technical analysis

Yeh pair ek naye level ke channel mein trade kar raha hai. Aaj subah, price channel ke lower border ke upar move karna shuru hui. Channel ke upper border ki taraf koi nishan nahi tha. Price ne jaldi se badalna shuru kiya aur girne lagi. Price wapas 1.1085, channel ke lower border par aa gayi. Mujhe lagta hai ke pair reverse ho kar dobara upar chalega agar yeh levels break hota hai. Agla level channel ke upper limit 1.1110 hai jo growth target hai. Euro dekh kar lagta hai ke iska decline ab bhi rukne wala nahi, zyada mumkin hai ke hum 1.1100 ki taraf move karenge aur aur bhi lower support levels hain. Agar price correction hoti hai to yeh ek ideal time hoga sales ke liye; main abhi current levels se enter karna nahi chahta. Dekhte hain greenback ka kya behavior hota hai. Yeh thak raha hai, to break ho sakta hai. Agar younger time frames par reversal ka nishan milta hai to purchase consider kar sakte hain.

Apartment transactions ab pehle se zyada apparent hain. Apne paise ko border se border trade karte waqt ginna. Ek equilibrium price tab ho sakti hai jab volatility nahi badhti, jo extreme price declines ko rokta hai. Trend ke maamle mein, is waqt do extremes hain: downward trend 1.0980 aur upward trend 1.1050. Is case mein, do fire hain, to hume dono ke beech kaam karna hoga. High-impact US news data positive strength de raha hai, to bulls retreat kar sakte hain, price sharply gir sakti hai Bollinger Bands ke neeche, oscillator middle line ke around 1.1070 pe aa sakta hai aur is hurdle ko break karne se additional losses bhi ho sakte hain. Din ke beech mein, emergency boost 1.1090 par dekha gaya.

EUR/USD PAIR REVIEW

EUR-USD pair ne Monday ki tarah Tuesday ko bhi apni bullish trend ko barqarar rakha. Strong buyer pressure ke wajah se EUR-USD upward move karta raha, jisse trading bhi pehle se kaafi high level par open hui. Tuesday ko candle 1.1086 se move karke 1.1129 tak gayi, yaani ke EUR-USD takreeban 56 pips se upar gaya. Is movement se h1 resistance jo ke 1.1086 par tha, woh break ho gaya, jo ye zahir karta hai ke EUR-USD abhi bhi bullish trend me hai.

Agar h1 timeframe par analysis karein, to candle ka position abhi 1.1122 ke supply area me hai. Jab tak ye area break nahi hota, EUR-USD ke girne ke chances maujood hain. Lekin agar candle is area ko break kar leti hai, to ye pair aur upar jaane ke chances rakhta hai. Abhi tak koi reversal pattern nazar nahi aya, is liye upar jaane ke chances zyada hain, chahe candle abhi supply area me hi stuck hai. Aane wale waqt mein EUR-USD ka next target 1.1239 ke upper supply area ko touch karna ho sakta hai.

Ichimoku indicator se analysis karne par pata chalta hai ke jab tak candle ka movement tenkan sen aur kijun sen lines ke upar hai, movement ka direction upar hi rahega. Pichle do dinon se upward move jaari hai, aur ab tak ichimoku indicator ne koi downward signal nahi diya hai kyun ke abhi tak koi new intersections nahi hue. Iska matlab hai ke ye indicator bhi EUR-USD ke upar jaane ke chances ko support kar raha hai.

Stochastic indicator yeh show kar raha hai ke EUR-USD overbought condition mein hai. Ye us line se zahir hota hai jo level 80 ko paar kar chuki hai. Monday ko bhi condition aisi hi thi, lekin uske bawajood movement upar hi gayi. Abhi bhi line ka direction upward hi hai.

Aaj ke analysis ka conclusion yeh hai ke EUR-USD pair ke aur upar jaane ke chances hain kyun ke candle ne h1 resistance 1.1085 par breach kar liya hai aur ichimoku indicator bhi movement ko support kar raha hai. Is liye, mein recommend karta hoon ke buy position par focus karein. Take profit ka target 1.1239 ke nearest resistance par rakh sakte hain, aur stop loss ko 1.1064 ke support par place kar sakte hain.

EUR/USD pair ne apne logical decline ko barqarar rakhne ki koshish ki, lekin iss dafa bears ko 1.0888 ke qareebi level ke paas aik na qabil-e-fatah rukawat ka samna karna para. Yeh baat qabil-e-ghaur hai ke iss haftay ke aghaz mein traders bohot zyada active thay, lekin volatility mein kami aagayi aur aakhri kuch dino mein macroeconomic aur fundamental background ka koi asar nahi raha. Isliye, ab hum sirf technical analysis par hi bharosa kar sakte hain. Ab yeh humein kya bata raha hai? Hum yeh samajhte hain ke iss waqt sabse important baat daily time frame par 1.0600 se 1.1000 tak ka horizontal channel hai. Price pichlay saat mahino se iss range mein hai. Kyunke iss haftay price ne iss channel ki upper boundary ko touch kiya hai, ab hum yeh expect karte hain ke yeh lower boundary ki taraf giraygi. Isliye, hum yeh samajhte hain ke euro ka girna jaari rahega. Haan, yeh dheere ho sakta hai, lekin hum further growth ke liye koi wajah nahi dekhte. Yeh zaroori nahi ke yeh nahi ho sakta.
Thursday ko 5-minute time frame par do acchi trading signals form hue. Pehle, pair ne 1.0940 se rebound kiya, phir 1.0888-1.0896 tak gir gaya aur wahan se phir bounce kiya. Is tarah, beginners do trading positions open kar sakte thay, aur dono profitable sabit hui. Pehli sell transaction se traders kareeb 25 pips kama sakte thay aur doosri se kareeb 10 pips.
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Friday ke trading tips:
EUR/USD ne hourly time frame mein short-term downward trend ko tod diya. Hum samajhte hain ke euro ne apne saare bullish factors ko fully factor in kar liya hai, isliye hum upward movement ke continue hone ki umeed nahi karte. 24-hour time frame ab bhi 1.06-1.10 range mein flat hai. Iss range se bahar nikalne ke koi reasons filhal nazar nahi aate. Pehle ki tarah, hum sirf euro ke girne ki umeed karte hain, kyunke European Central Bank ne monetary policy ko ease karna shuru kar diya hai jabke Federal Reserve ne nahi kiya.

Friday ko, novice traders 1.0888-1.0896 se price ke rebound karne ke baad long positions mein reh sakte hain, lekin aaj ki movements shayad zyada strong na ho.

5M time frame par jo key levels dekhne ke qabil hain woh hain: 1.0526, 1.0568, 1.0611, 1.0678, 1.0726-1.0733, 1.0797-1.0804, 1.0838-1.0856, 1.0888-1.0896, 1.0940, 1.0971, 1.1011, 1.1043, 1.1091. Friday ko Germany ke liye Consumer Price Index ka doosra estimate publish hone wala hai. Yeh estimate pehle wale se mukhtalif hone ke chances kam hain, isliye hum market reaction expect nahi karte, ya yeh reaction bohot weak hoga.

Euro ki qeemat apni decline ko continue karte hue $1.0825 ke support level tak pohanchi hai, jo ke chaar maheenon ke sabse highest level $1.094 se door ho gayi hai, jo ke 17 July ko touch kiya tha, jab euro zone, Germany aur France ke weak PMI data release hue the. In reports ke baad yeh umeed barh gayi ke European Central Bank iss saal do aur dafa interest rates cut karega.
Economic calendar ke mutabiq, Flash Eurozone PMIs ne July mein private sector activity mein unexpected slump ki taraf ishara kiya, jo ke manufacturing mein zyada contraction aur services mein slowdown ki wajah se hua. Germany aur France broader region mein underperform karte rahe. Iske nateejay mein, traders ne European Central Bank ke do aur interest rate cuts ki bets ko 80% se badhakar 90% tak kar diya hai PMI data ke baad.

Europe mein, German Treasuries aur French oats yields ke darmiyan yield gap barhkar 71.70 basis points tak pohanch gaya, jo ke France mein political tensions ki wajah se hua. Far-left National Front party ke taraf se pension reform ko reverse karne ka proposal, jo President Macron ne approve kiya tha, far-right National Front party ki support ke sath, ne fiscal spending aur France ke debt par risk premium ke hawalay se concerns ko barha diya hai. President Macron ne kaha hai ke unki government Olympics ke dauran mid-August tak barqarar rahegi, aur left-wing coalition ke efforts ko reject karte hue naye prime minister ko appoint karne se inkaar kar diya hai.

Daily chart par Euro ke price ke performance ke mutabiq, EUR/USD currency pair abhi bhi mazbooti se important psychological support level 1.0800 ke tor par inclined hai, aur agar yeh break hota hai, to bears ko aur zyada momentum milega ke woh price ko neeche le jayein. Aur agle most important support levels 1.0745 aur 1.0660 par honge, respectively. Dusri taraf, isi time period ke dauran, aur jaisa ke maine pehle bhi mention kiya, general trend mein upar ki taraf koi strong aur important shift tab tak nahi aayegi jab tak yeh wapas psychological resistance 1.1000 ke level tak na pohanche. Aaj Euro Dollar ki qeemat European Central Bank ke Governor Lagarde ke statements aur German IFO reading ke announcement, aur phir important American economic data, jo GDP growth reading, weekly unemployed claims, aur durable goods orders ke hawalay se hai, se affect hogi.