eur/usd

### Daily Time Analysis

**Eurodollar Price Trends**

Yeh analysis daily time frame ka hai. Eurodollar ka price world trading platforms par steadily barh raha hai, jo ke risky asset ke buyers ke liye khushi ki baat hai. Filhaal support aur resistance ka range 1.1050-1.1400 tak hai. Hum local annual maximum ke 12th figure ko exclude nahi kar sakte, lekin technical correction ka bhi imkaan hai jo broken level par ho sakta hai.

**Current Market Dynamics**

Is waqt, calves lead kar rahe hain aur dominate kar rahe hain. Aapko zaroori hai ke aap tawajjo de aur careful rahein taake aap apna waqt aur paisa unpredictable fluctuations mein na gawaan dein. Piglets bhi weight gain kar rahe hain, lekin hum unhe dard se qatal nahi karenge.

**Upcoming Fed Meeting**

US Federal Reserve System ke meeting ka waqt aane mein lagbhag ek mahina bacha hai, isliye northern trend continue kar sakta hai. Preliminary results ko summarize karte hue, dekhna yeh hai ke market kis direction mein jaati hai.

**Recent Market Moves**

Kal meri sales almost point by point out ho gayi thi aur ek rebound diya gaya. Mujhe nahi lagta tha ke extreme resistance level 1.1165 tak pohnch jayenge, lekin US se aaye hue labor market ke data revision ne koi chance nahi chhoda. Shayad iske baad ek correction wave start ho sakti hai jo 1.1050 ki taraf jaye.

**Drivers of Today's Movements**

Aaj ke movements ko drive karne wale factors PMI indices honge, jo ke European aur American sessions mein publish honge. Kal Powell Jackson Hole symposium mein speech denge, isliye in do dinon mein volatility market ke current picture ko significantly change kar sakti hai. Ya to hum downward reversal dekh sakte hain, ya phir correction ke baad growth continue ho sakti hai 12th figure tak, is expectation ke saath ke September mein rate definitely lower hoga, bas reduction ki size ka sawal hai.

Aaj EUR/USD trading ne 1.0914 par open kiya. Aapki opening position Friday ke jaisi hi hai. Masla yeh hai ke pichle kuch dino mein EUR/USD ki movement zyada badi nahi rahi. Sirf hafte ke shuru mein movement kafi badi thi. Hum dekh sakte hain ke EUR/USD ki movement aakhri dino mein upar nahi gayi balki neeche gayi. Girawat tab shuru hui jab




candle 1.0998 ke aas-paas lagi. EUR/USD ke girne ka sabab yeh tha ke candle supply area ko penetrate nahi kar saki.

H1 timeframe se agar dekha jaye to jab girawat hui, candle ne 1.0907 ke support ko break kiya. Halankeh iske baad EUR/USD phir se upar aaya. Mere khayal se, yeh penetration yeh signal hai ke EUR/USD abhi bhi gir sakta hai. Sabse important yeh hai ke 1.1007 ke price par supply area upar se break nahi hona chahiye, warna EUR/USD aur zyada badh sakta hai. Mera scenario yeh hai ke EUR/USD 1.0799 tak gir sakta hai, aur uske baad phir se upar aayega, kyunki wahan ek shoulder pattern hai jo abhi tak touch nahi hua hai aur yeh EUR/USD ke retracement ke liye suitable hai. Agar yeh pattern bhi penetrate ho jaye to EUR/USD ki girawat aur bhi gehri ho sakti hai. Plus, ek bade timeframe par bearish harami candle pattern bhi nazar aa raha hai jo market reversal ka confirmation hai.

Ichimoku indicator se analysis karte hue, jo market abhi bhi sideways hai, mushkil hai. Sirf tasveer dekh kar, kaafi intersections hain jo mujhe confuse kar rahe hain ke agla GBP/USD ka movement upar jayega ya neeche. Filhal, main GBP/USD ke analysis ke liye Ichimoku indicator ka use nahi kar raha. Main ise tab use karunga jab market busy ho aur trend clear ho.

Stochastic indicator se yeh pata chalta hai ke EUR/USD ke neeche jane ke chances hain, kyunki line ka direction neeche hai. Lekin iska position highest level 80 pe nahi hai, balki center mein hai. Market agar flat hai to line asaani se 80 aur 20 levels ko touch kar sakti hai. Isliye mujhe bhi alert rehna hoga kyunki traps ho sakte hain.

Toh aaj ke analysis ka conclusion yeh hai ke EUR/USD ke neeche jaane ke bohot zyada chances hain, kyunki candle supply area 1.1007 ko penetrate nahi kar saki. Jab tak yeh area touch nahi hota, EUR/USD ke upar jaane mein mushkil hogi. Iske ilawa, jab yeh neeche gaya, candle ne support 1.0914 ko bhi break kiya. Mere hisaab se, yeh bearish trend ki taraf ishaara hai. Isliye main recommend karta hoon ke jo log is pair mein trade kar rahe hain, wo buy positions pe focus karein. Aapka take profit target 1.0840 ke support par aur 1.1017 ke closest resistance par rakh sakte hain.

### EUR/USD Price Action Review

Hamare discussion mein, hum EUR/USD currency pair ke price ka tajziya karenge. EUR/USD pair growth dekh raha hai lekin 1.1134 par resistance ka saamna kar raha hai, jo ke rebound aur baad mein reversal ka imkaan bana raha hai. Halankeh bullish impulse abhi bhi aa sakta hai, lekin reversal agle hafte ho sakta hai. Aaj Fed minutes ke release par market ka reaction zyada insight provide karega. Market ka zyada focus Fed rate cut aur upcoming presidential election par hai. Election ka outcome market ko drastic impact nahi dega, lekin Trump ki predictability aur domestic issues par focus situation ko simplify kar sakta hai.

**Current Market Levels**

Filhaal, pair correction ke dauraan hai aur immediate support ko EMA 8 par test kar raha hai, jo ke 1.1111 par hai. Agle support levels EMA 20 par hain jo ke 1.1069 hai, aur EMA 50 par break karne se zyada significant downward reversal ka indication hai jo ke 1.1019 par hai. Abhi ke liye, yeh levels par focus karna samajhdari hogi, kyunki 1.1134 se aage growth hone par pair 12th figure ki taraf barh sakta hai, lekin yeh scenario uncertain hai.

**Geopolitical Tensions**

Is darmiyan, Europe aur China ke beech tensions barh rahe hain, khaaskar China ke European dairy products par stance ke baad, jo ke EU-China trade conflict ke zariye ho raha hai. Yeh tension European economy ko aur zyada pressure mein daal sakti hai. Kuch EU officials ka kehna hai ke migrants ki influx economic growth ko stimulate kar sakti hai, lekin yeh expectation Europe ke current situation ke madde nazar optimistic lagti hai. Agar EUR/USD pair upward trend ko continue karta hai, toh bullish momentum follow karna achha hoga. Lekin agar chart par bearish signal emerge hota hai, jo trading volumes se confirm hota hai, toh bechne ka opportunity ho sakti hai. Abhi tak koi clear signals nahi hain jo indicate karte hain ke price aage barhegi ya downward reverse hogi, isliye market se bahar rehna behtar ho sakta hai jab tak reliable signal nahi milta. Chart patterns ke mutabiq, agar EUR/USD pair downward shift hota hai, toh yeh accumulation area mein 1.0952 tak ja sakta hai.

Forex price movement ka tajziya karte hue EUR/USD ke aaj ke liye jo candlestick shape dekha gaya hai, usse yeh lagta hai ke price ke barhne ki probability ab bhi zyada hai. Yeh nishkarsh is baat par hai ke aakhri EUR/USD trade ek bullish candlestick bana. Jaise ke aakhri daily trade mein dikhaya gaya, closing price trade ke opening price se upar thi.

Bullish candlestick ke formation ka matlab hai ke buyers ne market ko pichli trade mein control mein rakha. Isliye aaj ke EUR/USD price movement analysis ke mutabiq, price barhne ke taraf hi rahegi. Is hisaab se, sabse relevant transaction option buy hai. Pichle EUR/USD price movement ko dekhte hue, jab currency pair 1.1130 par open hua tha, usne lowest trading price 1.1100 par banayi. Is lowest price level par, EUR/USD ko buyers ka support mila aur phir yeh barh gaya. Barhne ka silsila tab tak chala jab tak price ne highest trading price 1.1175 ko touch kiya. Is highest price level par, EUR/USD sirf sideways move karta raha aur finally trading 1.1150 par band hui.

EUR/USD market conditions ko dekhte hue, ajeng4x ka nazariya yeh hai ke EUR/USD abhi bhi bullish hone ke liye inclined hai, isliye buy transaction option aaj ke trading mein sabse behtar hai. Lekin transaction execute karne ke liye, behtar hoga ke sahi momentum ka intezaar kiya jaye, jaise ke smaller time frame par bullish candlestick pattern ka ubharna.

Isse yeh hoga ke jo transactions kiye jayenge, unmein quality open positions milengi, ideal risk-reward calculations ke saath aur achhi winning rate probabilities ke sath. Transaction decisions lene mein sabse nazdeek ke support resistance levels ka dhyan rakhna zaroori hai. Yeh support resistance levels Bollinger Bands indicator, Moving Average, Horizontal Line ke zariye ya Psychological prices ka istemal karke dekha ja sakta hai:

Agar price support area mein reject hoti hai, to buy transaction instantly ki ja sakti hai. Lekin agar support ka breakout hota hai, to buy transaction option ko dobara dekhna chahiye. Forex market ke price movements bohot dynamic hain aur market ko bearish condition mein bhi le ja sakti hain. Buy option tab bhi kiya ja sakta hai agar EUR/USD price pehla resistance breakout kar jaye, lekin open position ke liye behtar hoga ke price correction ke baad resistance area tak wapas aaye, isse Resistance Become Support (RBS) kehte hain. Isliye, abhi se risk calculations ka intezam karna zaroori hai, taake jo actions lene hain, woh trading plan ke mutabiq ho. Agar market unpredictable move karti hai, to losses measured aur risk limits ke andar honge jo pehle se tay kiye gaye hain.

EUR/USD PAIR REVIEW

EUR-USD pair ne Monday ki tarah Tuesday ko bhi apni bullish trend ko barqarar rakha. Strong buyer pressure ke wajah se EUR-USD upward move karta raha, jisse trading bhi pehle se kaafi high level par open hui. Tuesday ko candle 1.1086 se move karke 1.1129 tak gayi, yaani ke EUR-USD takreeban 56 pips se upar gaya. Is movement se h1 resistance jo ke 1.1086 par tha, woh break ho gaya, jo ye zahir karta hai ke EUR-USD abhi bhi bullish trend me hai.

Agar h1 timeframe par analysis karein, to candle ka position abhi 1.1122 ke supply area me hai. Jab tak ye area break nahi hota, EUR-USD ke girne ke chances maujood hain. Lekin agar candle is area ko break kar leti hai, to ye pair aur upar jaane ke chances rakhta hai. Abhi tak koi reversal pattern nazar nahi aya, is liye upar jaane ke chances zyada hain, chahe candle abhi supply area me hi stuck hai. Aane wale waqt mein EUR-USD ka next target 1.1239 ke upper supply area ko touch karna ho sakta hai.

Ichimoku indicator se analysis karne par pata chalta hai ke jab tak candle ka movement tenkan sen aur kijun sen lines ke upar hai, movement ka direction upar hi rahega. Pichle do dinon se upward move jaari hai, aur ab tak ichimoku indicator ne koi downward signal nahi diya hai kyun ke abhi tak koi new intersections nahi hue. Iska matlab hai ke ye indicator bhi EUR-USD ke upar jaane ke chances ko support kar raha hai.

Stochastic indicator yeh show kar raha hai ke EUR-USD overbought condition mein hai. Ye us line se zahir hota hai jo level 80 ko paar kar chuki hai. Monday ko bhi condition aisi hi thi, lekin uske bawajood movement upar hi gayi. Abhi bhi line ka direction upward hi hai.

Aaj ke analysis ka conclusion yeh hai ke EUR-USD pair ke aur upar jaane ke chances hain kyun ke candle ne h1 resistance 1.1085 par breach kar liya hai aur ichimoku indicator bhi movement ko support kar raha hai. Is liye, mein recommend karta hoon ke buy position par focus karein. Take profit ka target 1.1239 ke nearest resistance par rakh sakte hain, aur stop loss ko 1.1064 ke support par place kar sakte hain.

Tuesday ke trading session mein New York mein, EUR/USD currency pair mein aik nihayat buland izafa dekha gaya, 1.1010 ke ahem resistance level ke qareeb pounch gaya. Yeh izafa Euro ki qeemat mein US Dollar ke muqable mein taqatwar izafa ko numaya karta hai. Mojudah doran mein, EUR/USD 1.0926 ke qareeb trading ho raha hai, forex market mein barqarar bullish momentum ka dikhawa kartay hue. Euro ki qadr ka is izafa ne US Dollar par barhti hui dabao ke sath aiqtadar-e-uzma aur karobar ke dataon ke zariye chal raha pressure ko milta hai. US Economic Indicators aur Inke Asar Dollar Par

Haal hi mein aaye hue economic data United States ke Dollar par numaya asar andaz hue hain. July mein ISM Services PMI 48.8 par gira, jo April 2020 se sab se tezi se girawat thi. Yeh huliya kisi had tak umeed se kum tha jo 52.5 tha aur June ke 53.8 se gir gaya tha. Is ke ilawa, ADP Employment report ne bataya ke US private jagahon par sirf 150,000 naye jobs shamil hue July mein - jise 160,000 ka tasavvur kiya gaya tha, aur yeh paanch mahinon mein sab se choti izafa tha. Yeh data points kamzor hote hui economic conditions ka ishara dete hain aur US Dollar par pressure dalte hain.

European Market Sentiment aur Bond Yield Spread

Europe mein, market sentiment bond yields ke tabadlay se mutasir hota hai. French aur German 10 saal ke hakoomati bonds ke darmiyan yield spread haal hi mein karib 71 basis points tak ghata, jo pichle mahine ke end par 82 basis points se nichay tha. Yeh kam hone wala spread yeh zahir karta hai ke investors mein barhtay huay itminan hai ke France ke far-right RN party ko majlis-e-shura mein bari bahali hasil karna mushkil hai. Yeh sentiment mein tabdeeli ne France ke assets ko taqat di hai aur Euro ki puri shidat mein pechida hai.

EUR/USD ki Technical Analysis

Ek technical lehaz se, EUR/USD pair taqatwar bullish trends ka dikhawa kar raha hai. Yeh behad nichay 1.1000 ke levels se tezi se ubhar raha hai, chand waqton ke liye 1.0950 se oopar chala gaya hai. Pair ne 200-din EMA par 1.0826 se bhi guzar gaya hai, jo taqatwar short-term bullish sentiment ko zahir karta hai. Yeh technical tor par breakthrough yeh darust karta hai ke upri trend jari reh sakta hai, traders resistance levels aur potential breakout points ko qareeb se nigrani me rakhte hue.

Ikhtisar mein, Euro ke US Dollar ke muqable mein haal ki quwwat ko kamzor US economic indicators aur European markets mein itminani sentiment ka milaap mana jata hai. Jab EUR/USD pair ahem resistance levels ke qareeb pounchega, market participants qareeb aanay wale economic data aur geopolitical developments ko nigrani me rakhtay hue is currency pair ke mustaqbil ke harkaton par asar dalne wale cheezon ka tawaju se intezar karenge

EUR/USD Pair Technical Analysis
Market conditions EUR/USD currency pair ke liye iss mahine ke early trading session se hi dekhay ja sakte hain ke market ne dobara se move up karne ki koshish shuru kar di hai aur price level 1.1133 par ponch gaya hai. Abhi candlestick thodi si niche correction face kar rahi hai aur apne highest level se thoda neeche gir gayi hai. Halaat dekhein toh current market ab bhi upar hi lag rahi hai agar hum monthly timeframe se naapain. August ke shuru se hi trend upar ki taraf rally kar raha hai, toh mujhe lagta hai ke ab bhi market ke liye kaafi potential hai ke yeh trend ko last July ke market conditions ki tarah barqarar rakhe. Buyer ke hawariyat se market ko phir se dominate karne ki umeed hai aur prices ko aur bhi upar push kar sakte hain. Kuch haftay pehle se le kar kal raat tak, price ab bhi upar hi ja raha tha, aur bullish movement ke saath yeh EUR/USD pair ke liye uptrend journey ko continue karne ka ek moka aur umeed ban sakta hai. Early August trading period ke shuru hone se hi, bullish trend journey 1.1078 price zone se door move kar raha hai, aur yeh izafa kaafi bara lag raha hai. Mere khayal mein, candlestick abhi bhi upar jana chahti hai jaise ke market trend pichle kuch dino se raha hai. Agar technical side se benchmark liya jaye using Stochastic Indicator 5,3,3, yeh zone 80 tak upar jane ki koshish kar raha hai, aur indicator signal ka izafa buyer ke control ka saboot hai. Meri likhi gayi tamam analysis ke mutabiq, buyer ke taraf se candlestick position ko upar le jane ki koshish abhi bhi mumkin hai. Shayad aaj dopahar European market session mein bhi yeh halat dekhne ko mil sakti hai. Agar kuch din pehle se direction of travel ke tendency dekhi jaye, toh yeh trend bullish side par hi ja raha hai. Mera tajziya yeh hai ke market mein price ke upar jane ka moka hai aur yeh bullish trend ko continue kar sakta hai, aur mumkin hai ke yeh upward journey monthly high area ko touch karna chahti ho. Aaj ka trading plan zyada tar market trend ko follow karne par focus karega jo ke Uptrend ko dikhata hai, aur Buy trading option ko prepare karne par zyada tawajju di jaye gi

EUR/USD ki Technical Analysis:
Pichlay trading hafta, Euro ne 1.0926 ka mark break kiya magar mazeed aage barhne mein nakam raha aur apne tamam gains kho diye, support area mein mazid strong hotay hue. Is tarah se expected development scenario poora nahi ho saka kyun ke target territory tak nahi pohonch saka aur abhi bhi kaam kar raha hai. Is darmiyan, price chart super trendy green zone mein rehta hai, jo yeh zahir karta hai ke buyers abhi bhi control mein hain.

In data ne market mein optimism ko barhaya, jis se US stocks mein izafa hua. US dollar index Euro ki qeemat ke muqable mein 102.70 points tak gir gaya, jo ke 1.10159 points ke qareeb tha. Aaj ke trading din mein, Euro ne maximum 1.10169 points tak pohoncha, jab ke minimum 1.0992 points tha. Yeh data Federal Reserve ke qareebi rate cut ka rasta kholti hai aur yeh expectations barha sakti hai ke Fed apni September meeting mein rate cuts shuru karega.
news ab bhi ek ahem factor hai jo ke Euro ki trajectory ko affect kar sakta hai. Consensus yeh expect kar raha hai ke US ka CPI 0.2% se barhay ga, aur market ka reaction is baat par depend karega ke asal numbers is forecast se kitne match ya deviated hote hain.

Agar CPI expected se zyada garam aata hai aur Euro ko 1.0980 ke neeche gira deta hai, toh phir se 1.09 level tak girawat ka imkaan hai. Magar agar data expectations ke mutabiq hota hai, toh hum Euro ko mazeed barhte hue dekh sakte hain, jaisay ke recent
Pair is waqt har hafta flat trade kar raha hai, weekly highs set karne ke baad magar unhe hold karne mein nakam. Key support area ko test kiya gaya, aur mazid strong pressure ke bawajood, is ne apni integrity barqarar rakhi, jo ke prices ko range mein rakhta hai, aur yeh upside vector ki ahmiyat ko zahir karta hai. Aagey barhnay ke liye, 1.0926 level ke upar strong consolidation ki zaroorat hai, jahan main support area border karta hai. Agar is area ka kamiyab retest hota hai aur subsequent rebound hota hai, to nayi move higher ki taraf ho sakti hai, target area 1.1033 aur 1.1121 ke darmiyan ho sakta hai.
Technical analysis ke context mein, yeh scenario naye participants ko attract kar sakta hai jo pehle cautious ya bullish trend ke confirmation ka intezar kar rahe the. Yeh technical indicators ka alignment confirmation data ke tor par kaam karta hai, jo ke uptrend ke sustainable hone ka zyada bharosa deta hai. Yeh badhawa bullish momentum ko aur bhi barha sakta hai, kyunki naye buyers existing upward pressure ko badhate hain.

Summary

Summary yeh hai ke weekly chart par 100-period SMA ke upar price ko barqarar rakhna aur positive oscillator readings strong bullish momentum ko darshati hain. Yeh technical setup ek well-supported trend ko reflect karta hai jo ke jaari rehne ki ummeed hai, kyunki yeh price action aur momentum indicators ke sath resonate karta hai. Traders aur investors isey bullish signal ke tor par dekhenge, jo ke continued buying aur potential further price appreciation ki ishaara hai.

Tuesday ke trading session mein New York mein, EUR/USD currency pair mein aik nihayat buland izafa dekha gaya, 1.1010 ke ahem resistance level ke qareeb pounch gaya. Yeh izafa Euro ki qeemat mein US Dollar ke muqable mein taqatwar izafa ko numaya karta hai. Mojudah doran mein, EUR/USD 1.0926 ke qareeb trading ho raha hai, forex market mein barqarar bullish momentum ka dikhawa kartay hue. Euro ki qadr ka is izafa ne US Dollar par barhti hui dabao ke sath aiqtadar-e-uzma aur karobar ke dataon ke zariye chal raha pressure ko milta hai. US Economic Indicators aur Inke Asar Dollar Par
Haal hi mein aaye hue economic data United States ke Dollar par numaya asar andaz hue hain. July mein ISM Services PMI 48.8 par gira, jo April 2020 se sab se tezi se girawat thi. Yeh huliya kisi had tak umeed se kum tha jo 52.5 tha aur June ke 53.8 se gir gaya tha. Is ke ilawa, ADP Employment report ne bataya ke US private jagahon par sirf 150,000 naye jobs shamil hue July mein - jise 160,000 ka tasavvur kiya gaya tha, aur yeh paanch mahinon mein sab se choti izafa tha. Yeh data points kamzor hote hui economic conditions ka ishara dete hain aur US Dollar par pressure dalte hain.

European Market Sentiment aur Bond Yield Spread

Europe mein, market sentiment bond yields ke tabadlay se mutasir hota hai. French aur German 10 saal ke hakoomati bonds ke darmiyan yield spread haal hi mein karib 71 basis points tak ghata, jo pichle mahine ke end par 82 basis points se nichay tha. Yeh kam hone wala spread yeh zahir karta hai ke investors mein barhtay huay itminan hai ke France ke far-right RN party ko majlis-e-shura mein bari bahali hasil karna mushkil hai. Yeh sentiment mein tabdeeli ne France ke assets ko taqat di hai aur Euro ki puri shidat mein pechida hai.

EUR/USD ki Technical Analysis

Ek technical lehaz se, EUR/USD pair taqatwar bullish trends ka dikhawa kar raha hai. Yeh behad nichay 1.1000 ke levels se tezi se ubhar raha hai, chand waqton ke liye 1.0950 se oopar chala gaya hai. Pair ne 200-din EMA par 1.0826 se bhi guzar gaya hai, jo taqatwar short-term bullish sentiment ko zahir karta hai. Yeh technical tor par breakthrough yeh darust karta hai ke upri trend jari reh sakta hai, traders resistance levels aur potential breakout points ko qareeb se nigrani me rakhte hue.

Ikhtisar mein, Euro ke US Dollar ke muqable mein haal ki quwwat ko kamzor US economic indicators aur European markets mein itminani sentiment ka milaap mana jata hai. Jab EUR/USD pair ahem resistance levels ke qareeb pounchega, market participants qareeb aanay wale economic data aur geopolitical developments ko nigrani me rakhtay hue is currency pair ke mustaqbil ke harkaton par asar dalne wale cheezon ka tawaju se intezar karenge

EURUSD dusre din ke liye niche trade kar rahi hai aur blue moving average ke neeche wapas aa gayi hai chaar ghante ke chart par, jo ke continued decline ka ishara hai, aur support 1.0877 par mil raha hai. Is measure par poora bharosa nahi hai. Indicators already bohot strong oversold conditions dikhate hain, aur bulls ke market mein wapas aane ki possibility ko nazar andaz nahi kiya ja sakta. Isliye, agar quotes 1.0877 level ke neeche rehti hain, to main downward trend ke continue hone ki ummeed karta hoon. Doosri scenario ko bhi nahi bhoolna chahiye, agar quotes 1.0927 resistance ke upar wapas aati hain, to main long-term rise aur ek aur uchaai ki ummeed karta hoon.
EUR/USD pair taqatwar bullish trends ka dikhawa kar raha hai. Yeh behad nichay 1.1000 ke levels se tezi se ubhar raha hai, chand waqton ke liye 1.0950 se oopar chala gaya hai. Pair ne 200-din EMA par 1.0826 se bhi guzar gaya hai, jo taqatwar short-term bullish sentiment ko zahir karta hai. Yeh technical tor par breakthrough yeh darust karta hai ke upri trend jari reh sakta hai, traders resistance levels aur potential breakout points ko qareeb se nigrani me rakhte hue.
Ikhtisar mein, Euro ke US Dollar ke muqable mein haal ki quwwat ko kamzor US economic indicators aur European markets mein itminani sentiment ka milaap mana jata hai. Jab EUR/USD pair ahem resistance levels ke qareeb pounchega, market participants qareeb aanay wale economic data aur geopolitical developments ko nigrani me rakhtay hue is currency pair ke mustaqbil ke harkaton par asar dalne wale cheezon ka tawaju se intezar karenge.
Iske ilawa, technical analysis ke context mein, yeh scenario naye participants ko bhi attract kar sakta hai jo pehle cautious ya bullish trend ke confirmation ka wait kar rahe the. In technical indicators ka alignment unhe confirmation data hai, jo ek stronger conviction offer karta hai ke uptrend sustainable hai. Yeh increased participation bullish momentum ko further fuel kar sakta hai, jise naye buyers existing upward pressure ko add karte hain.
Summary yeh hai ke price ka 100-period SMA ke upar hona weekly chart par, aur positive oscillator readings ke sath, currency pair ke liye strong bullish momentum ka indication hai. Yeh technical setup yeh darshata hai ke upward pressure likely hai ke continue rahega, kyunki yeh price action aur momentum indicators dono ke sath well-supported trend ko reflect karta hai. Traders aur investors isse bullish signal ke roop mein dekhenge, jo continued buying aur near term mein further price appreciation ki taraf le ja sakta hai

EUR-USD pair ne Monday ki tarah Tuesday ko bhi apni bullish trend ko barqarar rakha. Strong buyer pressure ke wajah se EUR-USD upward move karta raha, jisse trading bhi pehle se kaafi high level par open hui. Tuesday ko candle 1.1086 se move karke 1.1129 tak gayi, yaani ke EUR-USD takreeban 56 pips se upar gaya. Is movement se h1 resistance jo ke 1.1086 par tha, woh break ho gaya, jo ye zahir karta hai ke EUR-USD abhi bhi bullish trend me hai.
Agar h1 timeframe par analysis karein, to candle ka position abhi 1.1122 ke supply area me hai. Jab tak ye area break nahi hota, EUR-USD ke girne ke chances maujood hain. Lekin agar candle is area ko break kar leti hai, to ye pair aur upar jaane ke chances rakhta hai. Abhi tak koi reversal pattern nazar nahi aya, is liye upar jaane ke chances zyada hain, chahe candle abhi supply area me hi stuck hai. Aane wale waqt mein EUR-USD ka next target 1.1239 ke upper supply area ko touch karna ho sakta hai.

Ichimoku indicator se analysis karne par pata chalta hai ke jab tak candle ka movement tenkan sen aur kijun sen lines ke upar hai, movement ka direction upar hi rahega. Pichle do dinon se upward move jaari hai, aur ab tak ichimoku indicator ne koi downward signal nahi diya hai kyun ke abhi tak koi new intersections nahi hue. Iska matlab hai ke ye indicator bhi EUR-USD ke upar jaane ke chances ko support kar raha hai.

Stochastic indicator yeh show kar raha hai ke EUR-USD overbought condition mein hai. Ye us line se zahir hota hai jo level 80 ko paar kar chuki hai. Monday ko bhi condition aisi hi thi, lekin uske bawajood movement upar hi gayi. Abhi bhi line ka direction upward hi hai.

Aaj ke analysis ka conclusion yeh hai ke EUR-USD pair ke aur upar jaane ke chances hain kyun ke candle ne h1 resistance 1.1085 par breach kar liya hai aur ichimoku indicator bhi movement ko support kar raha hai. Is liye, mein recommend karta hoon ke buy position par focus karein. Take profit ka target 1.1239 ke nearest resistance par rakh sakte hain, aur stop loss ko 1.1064 ke support par place kar sakte hain.

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

EUR/USD 1.1100 Mark Ke Uper Rehta Hai Fresh USD Selling Ke Waja Se, Fed’s Powell Ke Aane Se Pehle

EUR/USD Friday ko kuch dip-buying attract karta hai USD ke dovish Fed-inspired slide ke doran. Euro bulls interest rate cuts ke rising bets se unaffected lagte hain jo ECB ne diye hain. Investors ab Fed Chair Jerome Powell ke speech ka intezar kar rahe hain kisi meaningful impetus ke liye.

EUR/USD pair week ke aakhri din positive traction regain karta hai aur abhi ke liye apne pullback ko rokta hai, jo ke ek saal se zyada high touch kiya tha Wednesday ko. Spot prices abhi 1.1125 region ke aas paas trade kar rahe hain aur fresh selling ke baad US Dollar (USD) mein support dikhata hai.

Wednesday ko published data ne dikhaya ke US job growth March tak pichle saal ke dauran significant kamzor thi. Is ke ilawa, US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims ka rise aur US Manufacturing PMI ka slump is baat ka ishara dete hain ke economy slowdown ke risk mein hai. Yeh, turn mein, market bets ko reaffirm karta hai ke Federal Reserve (Fed) rate-cutting cycle September mein shuru karne wala hai aur USD ke rebound ke bawajood asar nahi hota. Yeh, zyadatar extent mein, Thursday ke mixed Eurozone PMI prints ko overshadow karta hai aur EUR/USD pair ke liye kuch support provide karta hai.

HCOB ke preliminary composite Eurozone PMI, jo S&P Global ne compile kiya, 54.1 ke muqablay mein 53.5 ka estimate aya, lekin yeh pichle mahine ke 54.3 se thoda sa kam hai. Germany - Eurozone ki sabse badi economy - mein business activity second consecutive month ke liye contract hui aur expected se zyada. Negotiated wage growth Euro area mein Q2 2024 mein 3.55% tak slow hui, jo ke Q1 2024 ke 4.74% se kam hai. Yeh case ko strengthen karta hai ke ECB iss saal ke do aur rate cuts karega. Yeh traders ko aggressive bullish bets lagane se rokh sakta hai aur EUR/USD pair ke liye koi meaningful appreciating move ko cap kar sakta hai.

ECB July policy meeting ke accounts ne dikhaya ke September meeting ko monetary policy restriction level ko re-evaluate karne ke liye ek acha waqt samjha gaya. ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaks ne inflation 2% par laane ka confidence dikhaya aur economy ke concerns bhi share kiye. Isliye, koi subsequent move up resistance ka samna kar sakta hai, lekin Greenback ke bearish sentiment ko dekha jaye toh yeh EUR/USD pair ke liye tailwind ban sakta hai.

Powell Spotlight Mein Hai, Lekin Ueda Ki Appearance Ko Bhoolna Mat

Jaise ke humne is hafte pehle hint kiya tha, hum short-coverage expect kar rahe hain dollar ke horizon par, lekin yeh nahi sochna chahiye ke latest pullback mein crucial levels ko severe test diya gaya hai. Jackson Hole se bahar aate hue, ache chance hain ke jo log Chair Powell se "50 basis points rate cut" flag dikhane ki umeed kar rahe hain, unko dovish disappointment mil sakti hai. (Yeh stock markets ke liye bhi hai) Yeh act one hai, jab ke asli plot twist NFP ke drop hone par hoga. Weekly jobs data ke madde nazar, market ke pass achi chance hai ke 2024 swap curve mein abtak 100 basis points ke cuts ko scale back kare, jo dollar ko firm up karne ka room de sakta hai.

Dollar aur currency market ke dance start hone ka waqt kaunsa hai? 2-year UST note yield par nazar rakho. USD/JPY jaise perform karega, downside risks ke liye zyada sensitive dikha raha hai. Market mein yen ko dips par kharidne ki renewed appetite reflect hoti hai, khas tor par July ke early August mein swift 20-big-figure drop ke baad. Bohat sare structural (derivative) yen shorts market mein hain, jo appreciation risks ke liye zyada aggressively hedged ho rahe hain. Jab tak Fed rate cut expectations strong hain, USD/JPY ko rallies sustain karne mein dushwari hogi.

Jab sabki nazar Powell par hogi, toh yeh mat bhoolna ke USD/JPY par BoJ Governor Ueda ki Diet mein appearance ka bhi asar hoga aaj (0930 Tokyo time). Diet members Ueda se recent market turmoil ke baad BoJ ke actions ka hisaab maang rahe hain. Umeed hai ke Ueda policy stance ko adjust karne ke liye strong case banayenge, lekin woh ehtiyat ko emphasize karenge—jaise ke Deputy Governor Uchida ne kiya. Iska risk yeh hai ke Ueda ki cautious tone Diet ko reassure kar sakti hai, jo yen depreciation ka lead karegi, lekin Powell ke speech ke madde nazar, koi yen sell-off ka bhi asar limited rahega.

Euro 1.1200 Tak Ja Sakta Hai

Dollar Index wapas upar jane ki koshish kar raha hai 101 ke uper. Powell ka Jackson Hole speech jo aaj schedule hai, ka intezar hai. Euro 1.12/1.13 ki taraf ja sakta hai agar yeh 1.11 ke uper sustain karta hai. USDJPY aur EURJPY ko 145 aur 160 ke uper hold karna zaroori hai taake corrective up move continue ho sake. Pound ko 1.31 ke uper sustain karna zaroori hai taake 1.32 ki taraf ja sake, warna yeh 1.29/28 ke taraf drag ho sakta hai medium term mein, aur Aussie 0.6650 ya lower tak bearish lagta hai. USDCNY ab 7.12 ke uper trade kar sakta hai. EURINR ko 93 ke uper sustain karna zaroori hai taake 94 ki taraf ja sake jahan se dip dekhne ko mil sakti hai. USD INR near term mein 83.85/90-83.40 ke range mein trade kar sakta hai.



EUR/USD ne apne multi-day rebound ko rok diya aur renewed downside pressure ke samnay aya Wednesday ke YTD peaks past 1.1170 ke baad, sab against backdrop ke resurgence of some bid bias in the US Dollar (USD).

Haqeeqat mein, Greenback ne apne recent 2024 lows in the sub-101.00 zone (August 21) se rebound kiya, jo US Dollar Index (DXY) se indicated hua, jab investors ne FOMC Minutes ko assess kiya, jo September mein Fed ke rate cut ke possibility ko open rakhta hai.

US Dollar ke daily rebound mein contribute karte hue, US yields ne bhi extra steam gather ki, various maturity periods mein markazi tor par advancing ki.

Is waqt, euro area ke advanced PMIs se mixed data ne pair’s march north ke continuation ke against kaam kiya, jab ECB Accounts ne reveal kiya ke policymakers ne last month interest rates ko lower karne ki zaroorat nahi dekhi lekin warn kiya ke September mein ek naya discussion ho sakta hai jab high rates growth par impact dalte hain.

ECB ke around, ek nayi survey ne dekha ke negotiated salaries mein growth, jo future pricing pressures ko forecast karne ke liye crucial hai, Q2 mein sharply slow hui.

FOMC Minutes ke expose ki gayi rate cut ke idea ko support karte hue, Kansas City Fed Bank President Jeff Schmid ne announce kiya ke woh unemployment rate mein rise ke causes ko closely scrutinise kar rahe hain aur facts par rely karenge taake support kar sakein rate drop ko agle mahine. Iske ilawa, Boston Fed President Susan Collins ne add kiya ke Fed ke rate-cutting cycle ko shuru karne ka waqt hai, jo indicate karta hai ke woh apne central bank ke policy meeting mein agle mahine ek rate decrease ko support karenge. Similar, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker ne apni readiness dikhayi September rate decrease ko support karne ke liye agar data unki expectations ko meet karta hai. Harker ne state kiya ke, agar data mein koi unexpected shift nahi hota, toh woh believe karte hain ke rate cuts shuru karne ka waqt aa gaya hai.

Rate cuts ke potential par CME Group’s FedWatch Tool ke hisab se September 18 meeting mein 25 bps reduction ka nearly 75% probability hai.

Agar Fed larger rate cuts proceed karta hai, toh policy gap between the Fed aur ECB medium to long term mein narrow ho sakta hai, jo EUR/USD ko higher push karne ka possibility rakhta hai, especially jab markets do aur rate cuts expect karte hain ECB se iss saal.

Lekin, longer term mein, US economy Europe se outperform hone ki anticipation rakhti hai, jo koi prolonged weakness dollar mein temporary bana sakti hai. Aage dekhte hue, Chair Jerome Powell ka speech Jackson Hole mein aur Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda ka testimony Parliament mein focus point hoga.

US Treasury yields ne bounce back kiya hai. Agar yields yahan se rise karte hain toh key resistances upside ko cap kar sakte hain. Broader view bearish hai, aur yields wapas gir sakte hain. US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell ka speech aaj Jackson Hole meeting mein ek important event hoga dekhne ke liye. Koi hint on a rate cut September mein market ko move kar sakta hai. German yields wapas rise hui hain lekin yeh likely short-lived hai. Trend down hai aur yahan se yields ke girne ka aur room hai.

Dow Jones apne resistance level ke niche well hold kar raha hai aur 40500-40400 ki taraf gir sakta hai. Uske baad hume dekhna hoga ke yeh wahan se bounce back karta hai ya lower break karta hai. DAX aur Nifty continue rise karte hain aur near term ke liye bullish lagte hain. Nikkei near term mein 39000-40000 ki taraf rise kar sakta hai jab tak 37500 ke uper hai. Shanghai vulnerable lagta hai 2800 ki taraf girne ke liye.

Crude prices wapas bounce kiye hain jahan mentioned support well hold hua aur looks bullish to target further upside. Gold, Silver aur Copper expected line mein gir rahe hain aur yahan se aur gir sakte hain. Natural gas ne range ke lower end ke niche break kiya hai aur near term mein neeche aur jaane ka room rakhta hai.

North mein, EUR/USD expected hai ke apne 2024 high of 1.1174 (August 21), uske baad 1.1200 round mark aur 2023 top of 1.1275 (July 18) ko challenge kare.

Pair ka agla downward target weekly low of 1.0881 (August 8), prior to the key 200-day SMA at 1.0846, aur weekly low of 1.0777 (August 1) hai. Yahan se neeche, June bottom of 1.0666 (June 26), before the May low of 1.0649 (May 1) hai.

Larger picture mein dekhte hue, pair ka upward trend tab tak continue rehna chahiye jab tak yeh crucial 200-day SMA ke uper hai.

Ab tak, four-hour chart mein upside bias ki tepid deceleration dikhayi deti hai. Initial resistance level 1.1174 hai, jo 1.1275 se pehle hai. Dusri taraf, immediate support 55-SMA of 1.1028, followed by 1.0949 aur last mein 1.0881 hai. Relative strength index (RSI) takriban 56 ke around retreat hua hai.

Aaj hum phir se EUR/USD currency pair ka jaiza lenge - D1 period chart par. Main ab bhi apne plan par qayam hoon jo ke girawat ka hai. Jabke wave structure apne order ko upar ki taraf banata ja raha hai, MACD indicator upar ke khareedari zone mein aur apni signal line ke upar barh raha hai. Pichle hafte mein movements kaafi clear thi. Teen clear movements thi, pehle barhawa, phir girawat aur phir se barhawa. Aur ye movement na sirf is period par, balki chhoti periods par bhi clearly visible thi. Ye maximum accumulation zone se nikal gayi thi, maximum se gir gayi, aur yeh clear tha ke kyun, aur US ke khabrein beech haftay mein aayi jahan indicators American dollar ke liye faida mand thi aur price patthar ki tarah neeche gir gayi. Ek clearly expressed horizontal support level 1.0954 par ban gaya tha. Yeh clear hai ke is par upar ki taraf rebound hua, lekin mujhe itna strong nahi ummid thi, maine socha tha ke yeh chhoti si rebound hogi aur hum atak jayenge. Ab price already upar ke maximum se nikal gayi hai, shayad hum aur bhi upar jaayein inertia ke saath. CCI indicator upper overheating zone mein bend kar raha hai aur is par bearish divergence dekhne ko mil rahi hai. Price maximum se nikal gayi hai aur ab ek correctional decline ki ummeed hai, yahan shorter periods M30-H1 par mirror level ka formation dekh sakte hain taake support resistance mein tabdeel ho aur niche kaam karein, downward correction ka ek hissa lene ki ummeed hai. Iske ilawa, price ne ek reversal figure banayi hai - ek ascending wedge, jis mein yeh ab located hai. Yeh ek additional sign hai ke price ek dum upar nahi chal paayegi aur shayad ek downward trend ke liye reversal hoga. Yeh figure kaafi khoobsurat hai aur achhe se kaam kar sakti hai, chaahe kuch upar bhi nikal jaye, mujhe lagta hai yeh ek scam hai aur collapse hoga. Eurozone ka Consumer Price Index (CPI) jaldi release hoga - yeh descent ki shuruat hai

/USD pair ka upward rally ab bhi kafi impulsive lag raha hai aur psychological level 1.1200 tak pahunchne ke qareeb hai. Lekin, yeh mumkin hai ke price impulsively niche correct ho sakta hai. Aik doji candlestick pattern reversal signal ke tor par dikhayi deta hai, jo price ko niche EMA 50 ke qareeb correct hone ka moka deta hai. Lekin doji candlestick bullish form mein hai, bearish nahi, isliye downward correction phase shayad zyada significant na ho. RSI indicator (14) optimal overbought conditions ko zahir kar raha hai, kyunki parameters kaafi arse se overbought zone mein level 80 - 70 par stuck hain. Kam az kam price daily time frame mein RBS area 1.1105 ke qareeb ya H4 time frame mein RBS area 1.1021 ke qareeb correct ho sakta hai. Kyunki yeh mumkin nahi ke price movement sirf aik direction mein jaaye baghair kisi downward correction ke jo aik secondary reaction ke tor par hota hai. European session mein kuch economic data reports Euro currency ke outlook ke liye catalysts honge aur New York session mein US economic data report US Dollar currency ke outlook ka tayun karegi. Behtar yeh hai ke bearish trend par apne trading plans ko jari rakha jaye jo ke abhi bhi chal raha hai. Isliye re-entry BUY position tab rakhein jab price downward correction phase complete kare daily time frame mein RBS 1.1105 area ke qareeb ya H4 time frame mein RBS 1.1021 area ke qareeb. Jab RSI indicator parameter (14) level 50 ki taraf badh raha ho aur wahan rejection ka samna kare, tab confirmation lein. Take profit ke liye target yeh hai ke hum confidently keh sakte hain ke hum EUR/USD pair ke upward movement ko continue kar rahe hain. Hum ne dobara se agle targets 1.1145 ke qareeb achieve kiye hain aur lagta hai ke hum iske oopar solidify kar chuke hain, kyunki itni strong rise ke saath hum false breakout ki baat nahi kar sakte. Aur ye baat note karna zaroori hai ke dollar girta raha hai. Lekin, abhi bhi yeh crucial hai ke dollar ka trade aaj kaise hota hai, kyunki kuch significant economic data nikalne wala hai. Is surat-e-haal mein, main personally filhal side pe hoon, aur in levels par buying ka soch nahi raha hoon. Lekin agar koi acha short-selling initiative milta hai, to future mein main sirf 1.1145 se selling ko consider karunga

Monday ko EUR/USD ne trading week ke aghaz mein aadha percent ka izafa hasil kiya, jab investors ne broad-market buy buttons ko activate kar diya. Fiber ko 1.1050 ke upar mazbooti se support mil gaya aur ab 1.1100 handle ka retest karne ke liye pur azm hai. Haal hi mein US ke kharab data ne investors mein ane wale US recession ke khauf ko dobara jagaya tha, lekin recent US data prints mein behtri ne unke nerves ko sukoon diya, aur ab wo Federal Reserve (Fed) se rate cuts ke signs ka intezar kar rahe hain. Midweek ka dor abhi quiet hai jab markets dono EU aur US se key PMI data ka intezar kar rahe hain, sath hi is saal ke Jackson Hole Economic Symposium ke shuru hone ka bhi. Yeh teeno events Thursday se markets par asar dalna shuru karenge.
Pan-EU HCOB Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures se umeed hai ke August mein upar jaayengi. EU Manufacturing PMI numbers MoM 45.8 se barh kar 46.0 tak pohnchne ka andaza hai, jabke Services PMI component ka forecast hai ke woh isi doran 51.9 par stable rahega.

Doosri taraf, US PMI figures se Thursday ko narami ka andaza hai. US Manufacturing PMI August mein thoda kam hoke 49.5 tak pohnchne ka andaza hai, jo pehle 49.6 thi, jabke US Services PMI numbers ek point girkar 55.0 se 54.0 tak girne ka forecast hai.

Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, jo ke Thursday ko multi-day central banker extravaganza shuru karega, investors ko puri dunya mein Fed policymakers ke iradon par nazar rakhne ke liye majboor karega, utsarilar Fed ke September mein rate cut ke mumkinat par.

September mein double cut ke liye lagaye gaye haal ke dor mein shartien kaafi kam ho gayi hain, jo do haftay pehle 70% tak pohanch gayi thi. CME ke FedWatch Tool ke mutabiq, rate markets ab 50 bps cut ke September 18 ko hone ke liye sirf ek-mein-panch ka chance price kar rahe hain. Overall, markets ab bhi September mein 25 bps cut ko puri tarah price kar rahe hain