𝐆𝐁𝐏/𝐔𝐒𝐃

Pair ne pressure ka samna kiya aur Friday ko subah Asian trading ke doran 1.3155 ke aas-paas trading ho rahi thi. Federal Reserve (Fed) aur Bank of England (BoE) ke agle policy meetings ke liye tayyar honay ke bawajood, market sentiment cautious hai. Trading din ke khatam hone par, GBP/USD 1.3121 ke aas-paas settle ho gaya, jo in pivotal decisions ke pehle investors ki unease ko highlight karta hai.

Central Bank Outlook: Fed’s Rate Decision aur BoE’s Cautious Stance

Fed se ummeed hai ke wo interest rates ko 5.25% se 5.50% ke range mein unchanged rakhega, jo ke July 2023 se rates ko in levels par maintain karne ka aathwa consecutive decision hoga. Halanki steady rate decision ki umeed hai, investors future rate cuts ke liye Fed se clear signals ka intezar kar rahe hain. CME FedWatch Tool ke mutabiq, current Federal Fund Futures pricing yeh indicate karti hai ke September mein Fed se 25 basis points (bps) rate cut already market expectations mein shamil hai.

Market experts ka kehna hai ke BoE se short term mein rate cut ki umeed kam hai. Policymakers rate reductions ko endorse karne mein cautious hain kyunki service sector mein inflation ab bhi high hai. June mein, UK's annual service inflation 5.7% tak pohnch gaya, jo BoE ke forecast of 5.1% se zyada hai aur economic conditions ko reflect karta hai jo rate cuts ko kam feasible banati hain.

H1 Chart GBP/USD ka Bullish Trend aur Key Support Levels:

Technical front par, GBP/USD pair long-term mein bullish trend dikha raha hai, aur 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) 1.3151 ke upar trading ho rahi hai. Traders higher lows ke patterns dekh rahe hain jo pair ko upar le ja sakte hain, provided ke recent pullback swing low approximately 1.3108 ke neeche na jaye.

GBP/USD pair ke liye immediate support lower boundary of the descending channel par 1.3088 ke aas-paas dekha ja raha hai. Agar is level ke neeche break hota hai, toh additional downward pressure lag sakta hai, jo pair ko 1.3000 ke support level ki taraf le ja sakta hai.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

Jab ke price lower channel lines se support le rahi hai, ab ye acha buying zone me hai. Is hafte, lower channel lines ne support area me price ko trade kiya. Prices ne channels ke saath bottom bana liya, magar jab ye weekly pivot level tak pohnchi, to resistance ne price ko wapas upar push kiya. Jab price current candle ke dauran lower channel line se bounce hoti hai, to hum expect karte hain ke price upar ki taraf move karegi aur weekly resistance level 1.3190 tak pohnchegi. Is level par buy entry karna appropriate hai, stop loss level current candle ki lowest price ke niche set karna chahiye, aur target level 1.3195 resistance ke niche set karna chahiye. Selling level tab available hai jab price price channels ko break kar ke unke niche chaar trading hours tak trade kare.


Economic tor par, pair ki price decline hui jab early French elections ke news aayi. Pichle hafte ka gloomy market mood British currency ke appeal ko kam kar diya. Magar Monday ki session me risk appetite improve hui, jis se pound ka impressive comeback hua. Halankeh British services ke liye weak PMI data aayi thi, pound thoda upar fluctuation karta raha. Survey results ne service sector ke growth me slowdown ko reveal kiya, magar British pound sector ki expansion ko support karta hai. Ek upward arrow blue channel ke entry level ko indicate karta hai jab price usme wapas trading karti hai. Is surat me, weekly basis par pivot level purchase kiya ja sakta hai. Jab price weekly support level 1.2980 ke niche stabilize hoti hai aur channel lines ke niche trading karti hai, to sell entry adjust ki ja sakti hai agar price weekly support level ke niche trade karti rahe.

GBP/USD ke maqami price behavior ka tajziya karna zaroori hai. Itwaar ko 1.3109 level par nazar rakhna ahem hai, kyunke yeh point yeh tay karega ke kya correction shuru hoti hai. 1.3108 aur 1.3109 ke beech farq sirf ek point ka hai, magar yeh correction ki direction ko decide kar sakta hai. Agar 1.3161 ka update aata hai, to yeh dollar ke kamzor hone ki ishaarat ho sakta hai. Uske baad, target shayad Friday ki high 1.3197 ki taraf shift ho, jo is peak ki strength ko test karega. Yeh level test karne se yeh samajh aayega ke significant correction kab shuru ho sakti hai, jo 1.3219 tak extend ho sakti hai. Main apni strategy ko har din ke movements ke hisaab se adjust karunga. Filhal lagta hai ke Bulls is par faida uthayenge, lekin monthly chart par koi bhi roknay ka ishaara nahi hai.

Yeh downward correction sloping resistance line se shuru hui thi, aur trading week ke end tak price 1.3121 par close hui, jo local support 1.3139 ko breach kar gayi. Yeh downward movement continue karegi, aur price ko zyada substantial support level 1.3044 ki taraf le jayegi. Is retest level par, main buy karne ka sochunga, aur upward trend ke resumption ka faida uthaoonga. Current debt levels ke saath, price ka 1.3219 tak rebound hona kaafi mumkin lagta hai, aur main apne aap ko accordingly position karunga. Agle haftay, main U.S. labor market data par focus karunga, jo mujhe lagta hai ke week ke last half mein significant movements drive karega. Price ne second resistance ko break kiya hai aur uske upar hai, jo is channel ke upside breakout ki ishaarat hai.

Kal GBP/USD pair ne ek descending channel ke andar utha aur gira. Pound ka technical picture euro se thoda mukhtalif hai. Sideways movement ke signs bhi hain, magar pound dheere dheere niche ki taraf ja raha hai. Ye behtar hoga agar pound foran ek tez girawat shuru kar de aur volatility current levels se zyada ho. Lekin, hamari khwahishain hamesha market ki capabilities se milti nahi hain.

Kal British pound ko US macro data se thoda support mila, magar bina iske bhi isme growth dekhi jaati. Pair aksar correction se guzarti hai, isliye upward retracements bhi economic reasons ke bina hote hain. Hum expect karte hain ke pound girayega, magar market bekar nahi hai, isliye behtareen halat mein hum dekh sakte hain ke quotes mein dheere dheere girawat hoti hai. Ek buy signal 5-minute timeframe par bana, magar weak volatility ke wajah se price target level tak nahi pahuncha. European session ke doran, price ne 1.2633 level breach kiya, uske baad 25 pips tak climb kiya. General situation ye hai ke agar aap apni trade par 15 pips se zyada ka profit dekhte hain, to aap deal ko close kar sakte hain aur khush ho sakte hain. Din ke akhir tak, price 1.2633 level par wapas aa gayi...

**Trading Tips on Friday:**

Hourly chart par GBP/USD downtrend banane ke promising signs dikhata hai, magar iska matlab ye nahi ke pair uptrend nahi bana sakta. Bearish prospects ke hawale se, ye achi baat hai ke price ne 1.2693 level ko do baar overcome kiya. Lekin, market aksar bechne se inkaar karti hai, hatta ke technical, fundamental, aur macroeconomic factors us direction ko support karte hain. Abhi bhi yeh clear hai ke har new low pehle se thoda hi neecha hai, aur corrections kaafi frequent hain. Ye downward trend ki kamzori ko zahir karta hai.

Friday ko British pound erratic aur illogical movements dikhata reh sakta hai. GBP/USD continue to fall kar sakta hai, magar Britain aur America se kai reports release hongi jo dollar par asar daal sakti hain.

5M chart par key levels hain: 1.2457, 1.2502, 1.2541-1.2547, 1.2605-1.2633, 1.2684-1.2693, 1.2748, 1.2791-1.2798, 1.2848-1.2860, 1.2913, 1.2980. Aaj UK apne GDP numbers ka third estimate release karega for Q1. US PCE index aur University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index release karega. Ye reports relatively secondary hain, magar current pair ki volatility ke saath, ye charts par apna asar chhod sakti hain

Price iss waqt ek achi buying zone mein hai, kyunke yeh lower channel lines se support le raha hai. Iss hafte, lower channel lines ne woh area dikhaya jahan price support mein trade ho rahi thi. Prices ne channels ke sath bottom form kiya, lekin jab weekly pivot level par pohanchi, to resistance ne price ko wapas upar dhakel diya. Jab current candle mein price lower channel line se bounce karegi, hum expect karte hain ke yeh upar move karegi weekly resistance level 1.3190 tak. Yeh level buy karne ke liye theek hai, stop loss level current candle ki lowest price se neeche rakhen, aur target level 1.3195 resistance se thora neeche set karen. Sell karne ka mauqa tab milay ga jab price channel lines tod kar chaar ghantay tak un se neeche trade karegi.

Economic outlook ke hawale se, Bank of England (BoE) pehli dafa chaar saal mein August meeting mein interest rates cut karne ki umeed hai. Reuters poll jo 18 July se 24 July ke beech conduct hua, us mein 80% economists ne predict kiya ke BoE apna key borrowing rate 25 basis points tak kam karega, jo ke 5% ho jayega. Yeh shift hoga unki restrictive monetary policies se jo pandemic se ab tak chali aa rahi hain. Lekin, BoE officials ke taraf se wazeh signals na hone ki wajah se expectations kam ho gayi hain, traders ab sirf 46% probability de rahe hain ke policy normalization ki taraf pivot ho sakta hai. Uncertainty ke bawajood, recent UK economic data ne kuch optimism dikhayi hai. Preliminary S&P Global/CIPS report for July mein nazar aata hai ke teesre quarter ki strong shuruat hui hai, jahan Composite PMI 52.7 tak pohanch gaya—estimates jo 52.6 ki thi aur pehle ki reading jo 52.3 thi, dono se barh gaya. Yeh improvement manufacturing aur service sectors mein zyada activity ko dikhata hai, jahan Manufacturing PMI 51.8 aur Services PMI 52.4 tak pohanch gaya, jo ke overall resilient economy ko show karta hai, concerns ke bawajood.

Aaj ke trading plan ke liye, mera plan hai ke main sell order 1.3130 par place karoon, target price 1.3100 par rakh kar, aur stop loss 1.3160 par set karoon. Lot size ko apne apne trading accounts ki resilience ke mutabiq adjust kiya ja sakta hai. Yeh trading journal update umeed hai ke mufeed hoga aur doosre doston ke liye bhi samajhna asan hoga, aur market entry determine karne mein reference ke taur par istamal ho sakta hai.

GBP/USD currency pair iss waqt 1.3130 par trade ho rahi hai, jo ke pichlay din ke opening price se neeche hai. Guzishta haftay ke trading mein GBP/USD dobara pressure mein thi aur kamzor hui, jis ki wajah se D1 time frame par bearish candle form hui jab market pichlay Jumma ko band hui. Aaj ke daily candle ka position MA 24 aur MA 200 lines ke kareeb aa raha hai upar se neeche, jaisa ke tasveer mein dekha ja sakta hai, jabke stochastic indicator 5.3.3 abhi level 20 ki taraf ja raha hai, jo yeh dikha raha hai ke aaj ke trading mein sellers abhi bhi market ko dominate kar rahe hain.

Is hafte ke shuruat mein koi high impact news release nahi hai, is liye hum sirf technical analysis par focus kar sakte hain. Dosri taraf USD index dheere dheere mazbooti dikhane laga hai aur is haftay ke shuruat mein mazbooti ka silsila jari reh sakta hai, jo ke forex market ke movement ko bhi mutasir kar sakta hai, khas tor par aaj GBP/USD market mein. Upar diye gaye analysis ke base par, aaj ke trading mein GBP/USD currency pair se umeed hai ke bearish trend jari rahegi aur hum mazeed is pair mein sell karne ke mauqe dekh sakte hain.

US Federal Reserve (Fed) ki expectations loosen hone ki wajah se currency par pressure hai. Fed Chair Jerome Powell ne guzishta haftay yeh hint kiya ke rate cut aa raha hai, khas tor par labor market ke hawale se pareshaniyon ke bawajood. CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq, halaanke 50 basis point (bps) cut ki chances 30% par hain, lekin traders ne already 70% se zyada 25 bps rate cut September mein price in kar liya hai.

Aham US jobs report jo Jumma ko ayegi, woh tay karegi ke kya US Dollar (USD) ki recovery jari rahegi ya nahi. August mein umeed hai ke US economy ko 163K nai jobs milengi, jabke unemployment rate thora kam ho kar 4.2% ho jayega. July mein average hourly earnings 0.3% MoM badhne ki umeed hai. Agar results anticipated se kamzor aye, to investors ko US economy ke downturn ka dar ho sakta hai, jis se US dollar ki value kam ho sakti hai.

Trading options ko dekhte hue, agar current price pattern structure jisme lower low - lower high condition hai, to SELL ka moment intezar kar sakte hain chahe abhi death cross signal nahi aya. Entry position ko jab corrected price FR 50 - 1.3154 ya FR 61.8 - 1.3164 tak barhta hai, jo ke Moving Average lines ke sath confluent ho, tab place karein. Confirmation ke liye Stochastic indicator parameters ko overbought zone mein level 90 - 80 cross par dekhen. Jis waqt AO indicator ka volume histogram consistently downtrend momentum level 0 ya negative area ke neeche dikhaye. Low prices 1.3108 ya psychological level 1.3100 ko take profit targets ke taur par use karein aur stop loss FR 78.6 - 1.3180 par rakhein.

GBP/USD Exchange Rate Analysis

Monday ki subha Asian session mein, GBP/USD pair ne apni position gain ki, aur teen din ke losses ka silsila khatam hua. Yeh momentum 1.3135 ke aas paas hai. Iss haftay GBP/USD ka primary driver USD ki price dynamic hogi kyunke UK se koi bhi significant economic data release nahi ho rahi. Jumma ko, US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) August ke liye main event hoga.

1H Chart






US Federal Reserve (Fed) ke expectations loose hone ki wajah se dollar pe pressure hai. Fed Chair Jerome Powell ne pichlay haftay labor market ke hawalay se concern zahir kiya aur ye hint diya ke rate decrease ho sakta hai. CME FedWatch tool dikhata hai ke 50 basis point (bps) drop ki chances 30% hain, lekin traders pehle hi 25 bps rate cut jo Fed ne September mein kiya tha, usko 70% se zyada price in kar rahe hain.

Jumma ko aane wala US jobs report decide karega ke USD rebound kitna mazid barqarar reh sakta hai. August mein US economy ko 163K naye jobs milne ki umeed hai, jabke unemployment rate thoda se gir kar 4.2% hone ka imkan hai. July mein average hourly earnings ka 0.3% MoM increase hone ka andaza hai. Agar results umeed se kam hue, to investors ko US economy mein slowdown ka dar ho sakta hai aur USD ki value gir sakti hai.

4H Chart






Lekin, investors ye samajh rahe hain ke Bank of England (BoE) apni policy-easing cycle ko dheere dheere is saal ke balance ke liye continue karegi, jisse pound sterling (GBP) ko support mil sakta hai. Reuters ke survey ke mutabiq, economists expect karte hain ke Bank of England iss saal mazeed 25 basis points (bps) se interest rates mein cut karegi.

GBP/USD Forum Analysis, Forecast
02 September 2024

GBPUSD pair ke price pattern ki structure ko dekhte huye lagta hai ke abhi bhi ye lower low - lower high condition mein hai aur bullish trend ka direction lagbhag bearish trend mein badalne wala hai. EMA 50 aur SMA 200 jo ke ek doosre ke kareeb hain, ek death cross signal ka potential provide kar rahe hain. Lekin, yeh bhi mumkin hai ke price pehle upward correction kare FR 50 - 1.3154 ya FR 61.8 - 1.3164 tak, jo ke in dono Moving Average lines ke sath confluent hain. Kyun ke price jab neeche gaya aur 1.3108 ke low prices tak pohancha, to lower low pattern form kiya hai, to ek upward correction ki zaroorat hai taake lower high pattern form ho sake.

Stochastic indicator ke point of view se dekha jaye to parameters jo cross hone walay hain yeh indicate karte hain ke price phir se neeche move karega. Iska matlab yeh hai ke upward correction phase sirf FR 23.6 - 1.3129 ke range tak limited hoga, phir low prices 1.3108 ko test karega. Misal ke tor par agar parameters cross nahi karte aur overbought zone level 90 - 80 tak pohanchte hain, to upward correction phase continue kar sakta hai jab tak ke woh apne optimal saturation point tak nahi pohanch jata. Dusri taraf, Awesome Oscillator (AO) indicator ka histogram abhi bhi GBPUSD pair ke price decline rally ko support karta hai kyun ke momentum downtrend mein hai. Lekin green histogram jo negative area ke neeche hai wo level ke kareeb weakness dikhata hai.

**Setup Entry Position:**

Trading options ke liye agar abhi ke price pattern structure ko dekha jaye jo ke lower low - lower high condition mein hai, to aap SELL moment ka intezar kar sakte hain chahe death cross signal abhi tak nazar nahi aya. Entry position placement ko tab karein jab corrected price FR 50 - 1.3154 ya FR 61.8 - 1.3164 tak upar chale jo ke in dono Moving Average lines ke sath confluent hain. Confirmation tab karein jab Stochastic indicator parameters jo overbought zone level 90 - 80 mein enter karein, cross karen. Jab ke AO indicator ka volume histogram consistent tareeke se level 0 ya negative area ke neeche downtrend momentum ko dikhata rahe. Low prices 1.3108 ya psychological level 1.3100 ko take profit targets ke tor par istemal karein aur stop losses FR 78.6 - 1.3180 par place karein.

GBP/USD H4 Chart Analysis

Jis tarah se price lower channel lines se support le raha hai, ab yeh ek acchi buying zone mein hai. Iss haftay lower channel lines ne support area mein price ko hold kiya hai. Prices ne channels ke sath mil kar bottom form kiya, lekin jab price weekly pivot level tak pohonchi, to resistance ne price ko phir se upar push kar diya. Jab price ne lower channel line se bounce kiya current candle ke dauran, hum yeh expect karte hain ke price upward move karegi aur weekly resistance level 1.3190 tak pohonch sakti hai. Iss level par buy karna appropriate hai, stop loss ko current candle ke lowest price se neeche set karna chahiye, aur target level ko 1.3195 resistance se thoda neeche set karna chahiye. Selling level us waqt available hoga jab price channels ko break kar ke unke neeche char trading hours tak trade karegi.

Recent forecasts ke mutabiq, Bank of England (BoE) apne August meeting mein pichlay chaar saal mein pehli dafa interest rates cut kar sakta hai. July 18 se July 24 ke darmiyan kiye gaye ek Reuters poll ke mutabiq, 80% se zyada economists expect karte hain ke BoE apni key borrowing rate ko 25 basis points (bps) tak ghata kar 5% kar dega. Yeh expected shift ek naya mod hai restrictive monetary policy se jo BoE ne pandemic ke baad maintain ki thi. Lekin BoE officials ki taraf se koi explicit endorsement na hone ki wajah se yeh expectations thori kamzor ho gayi hain, jahan traders ab 46% probability dekhte hain ke policy normalization ki taraf pivot hoga. In uncertainties ke bawajood, recent UK economic reports kuch positive news deti hain. Preliminary S&P Global/CIPS report ne July ke liye ek mazboot shuruaat dikhai hai third quarter ki, jahan Composite PMI 52.7 par pohoncha, jo estimates 52.6 aur pehle ka figure 52.3 se behtar tha. Yeh improvement manufacturing aur service sectors dono mein increased activity ko reflect karta hai, jahan Manufacturing PMI 51.8 tak aur Services PMI 52.4 tak chali gayi hai. Yeh figures ek resilient economic performance ko suggest karte hain bawajood in broader concerns ke.

GBP/USD pair ke hawale se, qeemat mein girawat ke liye jo sab se important kaam tha, wo ye tha ke M15 chart, jo hafte ke aaghaz mein congested tha, usay unload karna zaroori tha, aur usi ke sath hourly chart par averages ko bhi unload karna tha. Yeh dono kaam kal subah mukammal hue, is wajah se yeh andaza lagaya gaya ke agar pair resistance support point 1.2917 ko torh kar consolidate kare, toh yeh reversal ka ishara ho sakta hai. Sab se pehle, M15 ka reversal northern signal ki taraf hota, aur phir qeemat mein izafa hota, jisse hourly chart par bhi reversal hota aur qeemat 1.2965 ko torh deti. Magar, qeemat support 1.2840 tak nahi pohonchi aur kal upar ki taraf mod gayi, 1.2917 ko torh diya, lekin uss ke upar qaim rehne mein kamiyab nahi ho saki, kyun ke M15 ko reversal ke liye waqt nahi mila. Agar qeemat 1.2965 tak pohonchti, toh M15 ka northern signal taraf reversal hota, lekin aisa nahi hua, aur phir qeemat 1.2917 ke neeche chali gayi, jahan se support aur 1.2840 ki taraf wapas gai, jo abhi tak M15 par averages ko overload kar rahi hai.
M15 chart aaj bhi critically overloaded hai aur averages ko unload karna zaroori hai. Is ke liye, pair ko resistance support point 1.2917 ko torhna hoga aur is point ke upar 4 ghante se zyada qaim rehna hoga, warna agar yeh izafa 1.2965 tak hota hai, toh yeh reversal ke liye waqt kum kar dega. Agar qeemat 1.2917 ko torh kar 1.2965 tak barh gayi, toh M15 par averages ka reversal ho jaye ga, aur 1.2965 se resistance milne ke baad hum 1.2917 tak ek rollback ki umeed karte hain, jahan se phir se growth hogi 1.3053 tak. Agar qeemat 1.2965 ko torh deti hai, toh hourly chart par bhi northern signal ka reversal ho jaye ga, aur naye hafte mein growth sab timeframes par dekhi jayegi, M15 se le kar daily chart tak.

Yeh mumkin hai ke pair aaj 1.2840 tak pohonchne ki koshish kare, lekin iss congestion ke sath support point ko torhna mushkil hoga. Four-hour chart par fresh northern signal hai, lekin southern clock par bhi fresh signal hai; agar M15 par unload karte waqt 1.2965 ka resistance torhne mein kamiyabi nahi milti, toh clock phir se situation ko critical point par le aaye ga. M15 south ki taraf mod sakta hai aur phir girawat 1.2780 tak jaari rehegi, yeh wo maximum support level hai jahan four-hour clock rollback kar sakti hai baghair reversal ke khatrey ke. Agar pair 1.2780 ko torhta hai toh yeh southern four-hour signal ki taraf modna shuru kar dega, lekin yeh tab hoga jab M15 averages ko unload kar le

Downside mein, 100-day aur 50-day simple moving averages strong support bana rahe hain 1.2640 par. Yeh level latest uptrend ke Fibonacci 38.2% retracement se bhi supported hai. Agar GBP/USD is level ke neeche break karta hai aur usay resistance bana leta hai, to agle bearish targets 1.2600 (jo ek psychological aur static level hai) aur 1.2580 (Fibonacci 50% retracement) ho sakte hain. Immediate resistance 1.2700 (200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart) par set hai, iske baad 1.2730 (100-period SMA, Fibonacci 23.6% retracement) aur 1.2800 (psychological aur static level) par hai. Tuesday ko, pair surface clear nahi kar paya aur Wednesday ko minor bearish pressure mein hai. Agar 1.2640 support break hota hai, to ek extended slide dekhne ko mil sakti hai.
Advanced data ki absence mein, ek cautious market stance ne US dollar ko apne rivals ke khilaf resilient rakha hai. Iske ilawa, Federal Reserve officials ke dovish comments ne bhi USD ko further support diya hai. Fed Governor Michelle Bauman ne Tuesday ko kaha ke abhi yeh waqt nahi hai ke interest rates cut kiye jayen, aur agar inflation ruk jata hai ya reverse hota hai to rate hikes ka target rakhne ke liye tayar hain. US stock index futures marginally higher trade kar rahe hain. Agar Wall Street bullish open hota hai, to USD gains limited ho sakte hain, aur GBP/USD ko kuch footing mil sakti hai. Lekin, pair bullish momentum gather karne mein mushkilat ka samna kar sakta hai jab tak investors agle hafte ke UK elections ka wait kar rahe hain before taking large positions. US economic docket mein sirf May ke liye new home sales hain. April mein 4.7% decline ke baad, is data mein ek aur significant drop Fed ki tightening policy ka housing market par negative impact highlight kar sakti hai aur USD ko hurt kar sakti hai.

Technical analysis ke mutabiq initial support 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke qareeb 1.2600 par hai, aur further support ascending channel ke lower boundary ke qareeb 1.2500 par anticipate kiya ja raha hai. Agar yeh levels breach hote hain, to selling pressure intensify ho sakta hai, key support 1.2451 par test karne ke liye. Agar is level par breakthrough hota hai, to further upward movement dekhne ko mil sakti hai, jo GBP/USD pair ko ascending channel ke upper boundary ke qareeb 1.3000 tak push kar sakta hai

GBP/USD pair ke hawale se, qeemat mein girawat ke liye jo sab se important kaam tha, wo ye tha ke M15 chart, jo hafte ke aaghaz mein congested tha, usay unload karna zaroori tha, aur usi ke sath hourly chart par averages ko bhi unload karna tha. Yeh dono kaam kal subah mukammal hue, is wajah se yeh andaza lagaya gaya ke agar pair resistance support point 1.2917 ko torh kar consolidate kare, toh yeh reversal ka ishara ho sakta hai. Sab se pehle, M15 ka reversal northern signal ki taraf hota, aur phir qeemat mein izafa hota, jisse hourly chart par bhi reversal hota aur qeemat 1.2965 ko torh deti. Magar, qeemat support 1.2840 tak nahi pohonchi aur kal upar ki taraf mod gayi, 1.2917 ko torh diya, lekin uss ke upar qaim rehne mein kamiyab nahi ho saki, kyun ke M15 ko reversal ke liye waqt nahi mila. Agar qeemat 1.2965 tak pohonchti, toh M15 ka northern signal taraf reversal hota, lekin aisa nahi hua, aur phir qeemat 1.2917 ke neeche chali gayi, jahan se support aur 1.2840 ki taraf wapas gai, jo abhi tak M15 par averages ko overload kar rahi hai.
M15 chart aaj bhi critically overloaded hai aur averages ko unload karna zaroori hai. Is ke liye, pair ko resistance support point 1.2917 ko torhna hoga aur is point ke upar 4 ghante se zyada qaim rehna hoga, warna agar yeh izafa 1.2965 tak hota hai, toh yeh reversal ke liye waqt kum kar dega. Agar qeemat 1.2917 ko torh kar 1.2965 tak barh gayi, toh M15 par averages ka reversal ho jaye ga, aur 1.2965 se resistance milne ke baad hum 1.2917 tak ek rollback ki umeed karte hain, jahan se phir se growth hogi 1.3053 tak. Agar qeemat 1.2965 ko torh deti hai, toh hourly chart par bhi northern signal ka reversal ho jaye ga, aur naye hafte mein growth sab timeframes par dekhi jayegi, M15 se le kar daily chart tak.

Yeh mumkin hai ke pair aaj 1.2840 tak pohonchne ki koshish kare, lekin iss congestion ke sath support point ko torhna mushkil hoga. Four-hour chart par fresh northern signal hai, lekin southern clock par bhi fresh signal hai; agar M15 par unload karte waqt 1.2965 ka resistance torhne mein kamiyabi nahi milti, toh clock phir se situation ko critical point par le aaye ga. M15 south ki taraf mod sakta hai aur phir girawat 1.2780 tak jaari rehegi, yeh wo maximum support level hai jahan four-hour clock rollback kar sakti hai baghair reversal ke khatrey ke. Agar pair 1.2780 ko torhta hai toh yeh southern four-hour signal ki taraf modna shuru kar dega, lekin yeh tab hoga jab M15 averages ko unload kar le. Jab tak M15 ka unloading nahi hoti, mein yeh andaza lagaunga ke qeemat 1.0840 tak rollback karegi reference point se, aur wahan se phir se growth hogi 1.2917 tak, break down aur growth 1.2965 tak hogi, phir dekhna hoga ke kya yeh resistance torh payegi, aur agar rollback par phir se support nahi milta 1.2917 ka, toh decline ki umeed ki ja sakti hai 1.2780 tak; agar rollback mein 1.2917 ka torhna nakam hota hai, ya 1.2965 ka resistance torh diya jata hai, toh growth hogi 1.3053 tak.

Pound Sterling ne apne intraday gains chhod diye aur US Dollar ke muqablay mein 1.3200 ke key support ke qareeb pohnch gaya hai, Thursday ke London session mein. GBP/USD pair wapas gir gaya jab US Dollar ne Wednesday ke recovery move ko barhawa diya. US Dollar Index (DXY), jo Greenback ki value ko chhay bade currencies ke muqablay mein track karta hai, 101.30 ke qareeb barh gaya hai.

Magar, Greenback ko apne recent rebound ko barqarar rakhna mushkil ho sakta hai kyunki Federal Reserve ka September ke meeting mein interest rates ko kam karna almost pakka hai. Jabke traders is baat ko lekar divided hain ke Fed policy-easing ki shuruat 25 ya 50 basis points (bps) ke cut se karega, rate reduction puri tarah se priced in hai.

**Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling 1.3200 ke qareeb acha support pa raha hai**

Pound Sterling ne dubara se 1.3200 ke qareeb apna immediate support barqarar rakha hai. GBP/USD pair ki near-term appeal mazboot hai, kyunki yeh weekly time frame par Rising Channel chart formation ke breakout ko pakray hue hai. Agar bullish momentum wapas aata hai, to Cable ki ummeed hai ke iska upside 1.3500 ke psychological resistance aur February 4, 2022 ke high 1.2640 tak extend ho sakta hai, jab yeh naye tow and a half year high 1.3266 ko break karega. Upwards sloping 20-week Exponential Moving Average jo 1.3000 ke qareeb hai, ek strong upside trend ko suggest karta hai.

14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) bullish range 60.00-80.00 mein oscillate kar raha hai, jo strong upside momentum ko suggest karta hai. Lekin, RSI ne 70.00 ke qareeb overbought levels tak pohnch gaya hai, jo corrective pullback ke chances ko barhata hai. Downside par, psychological level 1.3000 Pound Sterling bulls ke liye crucial support banega

Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) ke release ke baad market sentiment mein tabdeeli ki wajah se achanak rukh gai. Ye achanak reversal Federal Reserve ke Chair Jerome Powell ki Jackson Hole Economic Symposium mein takreer ke liye intezar mein izafa kar raha hai. Market ke hissa lene wale Powell ke insights ke intezar mein hain ke kya Fed rate cut ke liye September mein kitna imkaan hai aur kitna bada cut ho sakta hai. Market pehle se hi rate cut ki taraf jhuka hua tha, lekin mixed PMI data ne is spekulasyon ko barhawa diya hai ke ek ziyata aggressive 50-basis-point reduction ho sakti hai. Fed ka pechla rate cut 25 basis points ka tha jo September mein hua tha, aur is mahine ke liye bhi lagbhag 75% imkaan hai ke waisa hi cut ho. Doosri taraf, UK ka August ka PMI data kuch umeedon ka izhar kar raha hai. Sabhi components—composite, manufacturing, aur services—ne expectations ko exceed kiya aur pichle levels se behtar huye. Khaaskar services sector mein ek notable uptick dekha gaya jo April ke baad se apni sabse buland point par hai. Is ke muqable mein, US manufacturing PMI data disappoint kar gaya, jo ke forecast se neeche raha aur sector mein kamzori ka izhar karta hai. Haan, services PMI ne achanak barhawa zaroor diya, magar underlying employment data ye suggest karta hai ke US labor market mein contraction ho raha hai. Ye conflicting economic picture ne market mein uncertainty ko aur barhawa diya hai, special Bureau of Labor Statistics ke taraf se March ke nonfarm payrolls report se 800,000 se zyada jobs ko retroactively hatane ke baad. Recent setback ke bawajood, pound dollar ke muqable mein mazeed gains ke liye tayyar lag raha hai. Pichle das trading dino ke dauran pair ka positive performance bullish bias suggest karta hai. Magar, technical indicators, jaise ke Stochastic aur RSI, kamzori ke asar dikha rahe hain, jo ke short-term downside pressure ko indicate karte hain. Agar GBP/USD July 2023 ka peak 1.3142 ke upar break kar le, to ye ek ek ziata significant uptrend trigger kar sakta hai. Potential upside targets mein ek saal ki bulandi 1.3145 aur 1.3140 level shamil hain. Downside par, support levels 23.6% Fibonacci level 1.2870 par, 20-aur 50-day simple moving averages 1.2825 aur 1.2800 par, aur ascending trend line aur 38.2% Fibonacci level 1.2760 par ho sakte hain. Akhir mein, GBP/USD abhi bhi flux ki state mein hai, bullish momentum aur Fed ki monetary policy aur economic indicators ke hawalay se uncertainty ke darmiyan balance

Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) ke release ke baad market sentiment mein tabdeeli ki wajah se achanak rukh gai. Ye achanak reversal Federal Reserve ke Chair Jerome Powell ki Jackson Hole Economic Symposium mein takreer ke liye intezar mein izafa kar raha hai. Market ke hissa lene wale Powell ke insights ke intezar mein hain ke kya Fed rate cut ke liye September mein kitna imkaan hai aur kitna bada cut ho sakta hai. Market pehle se hi rate cut ki taraf jhuka hua tha, lekin mixed PMI data ne is spekulasyon ko barhawa diya hai ke ek ziyata aggressive 50-basis-point reduction ho sakti hai. Fed ka pechla rate cut 25 basis points ka tha jo September mein hua tha, aur is mahine ke liye bhi lagbhag 75% imkaan hai ke waisa hi cut ho. Doosri taraf, UK ka August ka PMI data kuch umeedon ka izhar kar raha hai. Sabhi components—composite, manufacturing, aur services—ne expectations ko exceed kiya aur pichle levels se behtar huye. Khaaskar services sector mein ek notable uptick dekha gaya jo April ke baad se apni sabse buland point par hai. Is ke muqable mein, US manufacturing PMI data disappoint kar gaya, jo ke forecast se neeche raha aur sector mein kamzori ka izhar karta hai. Haan, services PMI ne achanak barhawa zaroor diya, magar underlying employment data ye suggest karta hai ke US labor market mein contraction ho raha hai. Ye conflicting economic picture ne market mein uncertainty ko aur barhawa diya hai, special Bureau of Labor Statistics ke taraf se March ke nonfarm payrolls report se 800,000 se zyada jobs ko retroactively hatane ke baad. Recent setback ke bawajood, pound dollar ke muqable mein mazeed gains ke liye tayyar lag raha hai. Pichle das trading dino ke dauran pair ka positive performance bullish bias suggest karta hai. Magar, technical indicators, jaise ke Stochastic aur RSI, kamzori ke asar dikha rahe hain, jo ke short-term downside pressure ko indicate karte hain. Agar GBP/USD July 2023 ka peak 1.3142 ke upar break kar le, to ye ek ek ziata significant uptrend trigger kar sakta hai. Potential upside targets mein ek saal ki bulandi 1.3145 aur 1.3140 level shamil hain. Downside par, support levels 23.6% Fibonacci level 1.2870 par, 20-aur 50-day simple moving averages 1.2825 aur 1.2800 par, aur ascending trend line aur 38.2% Fibonacci level 1.2760 par ho sakte hain. Akhir mein, GBP/USD abhi bhi flux ki state mein hai, bullish momentum aur Fed