𝐔𝐒𝐃/𝐉𝐏𝐘

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M15 Minutes Timeframe Analysis


Current Market Conditions:

Good day, everyone! M15 chart par linear regression channel ab downward state mein hai, jo sellers ki strength ko indicate karta hai. Yeh trend south ki taraf lean kar raha hai, aur target lower edge of the channel, jo 148.746 par hai. Main 150.204 level se sales consider kar raha hoon, jo bulls ko withstand karni chahiye; agar yeh level break hota hai, to 150.912 level tak deeper correction ke chances sharp increase ho sakte hain.

Trading Strategy:

Target reach karne ke baad, sales ko hold off karna prudent hai, kyunki M15 movement ki volatility exhausted ho sakti hai, jo reverse upward movement ka indication ho sakta hai. Is case mein, bottom par wait karna better hoga. Zyada strategic approach yeh hogi ke channel ki upper border tak rollback ka intezaar karein, taake market mein re-enter kar sakein, jo cost ko significant reduce karega.

Optimal Entry Point:

Rollback anticipate karne se hum zyada profitable entry point ke liye behtar position mein aa sakte hain. Downward channel sellers ki strong presence ko dikhata hai, lekin key levels jaise ke 150.204 aur 150.912 ki careful timing aur analysis crucial hai trading decisions ko optimize karne ke liye. In levels aur market reactions ko monitor karna essential hai agle steps decide karne ke liye.

Final Thoughts:

Momentum ya volatility mein kisi bhi shift ko vigilantly dekhna zaroori hai. Agar market upper border of the channel tak retrace karta hai, to yeh selling ke liye optimal entry point provide kar sakta hai, isse potential losses minimize hote hain aur gains maximize hote hain.

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USD/JPY: Recent Developments


Current Market Overview:

Haal hi mein, USD/JPY currency pair ki live pricing ko decode karne ki koshish ki ja rahi hai. Aaj, Japanese yen ke buyers 141.68 ke low se upward momentum ko maintain kar rahe hain. Lekin, agar bears USD/JPY price ko support level 144.09 ke neeche drive kar dete hain, to yeh trend reverse ho sakta hai. USD/JPY ke liye nearest significant resistance level 145.17 hai. Bulls ko is resistance level ko decisive break karna hoga, khaaskar bullish start line 146.36 ko, taake upward trend ko fully realize kiya ja sake. Agar yeh break hota hai aur price is level ke upar hold karti hai, to primary upward momentum likely hoga. USD/JPY pair phir initial target zones 149.25 aur 151.03 tak rise kar sakta hai, with additional growth targets at 149.69 aur 150.41, lekin in levels se kuch retracement bhi ho sakta hai.

Resistance and Support Levels:

Agar bullish pullbacks ka possibility kam hai, to weekly chart review se yeh pata chala hai ke humne strong uptrend line ko breach kar diya hai, jo 148.59-49 ke aas-paas hai, jo suggest karta hai ke bears ne momentarily control gain kar liya hai. Bank of Japan ke interest rate decisions ki uncertainty, including further increases, USD/JPY ko decline karne mein contribute kar sakti hai. Saath hi, speculation ke Fed September se pehle apne rate ko lower kar sakta hai, jo currency pair par additional pressure daal sakti hai.

Technical Indicators and Strategy:

Price channel indicator ko use karke, jo moving averages ko analyze karta hai, main bullish channel direction observe kar raha hoon, jo buyers ke strong power ko sellers ke muqablay mein indicate karta hai. Halanki minor pullbacks hain, bulls ab bhi robust hain aur apni dominance asaani se relinquish nahi karenge. Zigzag line ke mutabiq, long positions abhi preferable hain. MACD aur RSI indicators, jo trade signals ko refine karne mein madadgar hain, buy signal ke sath align karte hain. Main apni position ko 50% Fibonacci level, jo 151.82 par projected hai, reach karne ke baad close karne ka plan kar raha hoon.

USD/JPY1

Mangal ke din, pair ne apni downward trajectory continue ki, jo zyada tar US Dollar (USD) ki strengthening se mutasir thi. USD/JPY pair 141.71 ke naye low ke qareeb trade kar rahi hai, jo ke 1986 ke baad pehli dafa dekha gaya hai. Is trend ke bawajood, Japanese authorities ke verbal interventions yen ko kuch support de sakte hain, jo iski mazeed girawat ko rok sakte hain.





USD ne teen din ki girawat ko tor diya, jo ke US Treasury yields ke barhne se driven tha. Yeh izafa is baat ki umeedon se aya ke Federal Reserve 2024 mein interest rates cut kar sakta hai. Mary Daly, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, ne tasleem kiya ke monetary policy asar kar rahi hai, magar yeh abhi tak uncertain hai ke interest rates kab kam karna theek hoga. Daly ne zor diya, "Agar inflation sticky rehti hai ya dheere dheere girti hai, to rates ko zyada der tak higher rehna parega," Reuters ke mutabiq. Market participants ab Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell ke upcoming speech se insights ka intezar kar rahe hain.

Surat-e-haal kuch uncertain lagti hai; magar, main bullish side ki taraf correction ki umeed kar raha hoon, jo ke resistance zone 157.27 tak pohanch sakta hai, jo Bollinger indicator ke moving average line se define hota hai. Yeh area descending bearish channel ke upper boundary ko bhi represent karta hai, agar trend reversal hota hai. Filhal, trading instrument ka market price 154.11 par hai. Is subha ke trading mein, instrument ne 153.63 par support paya aur wahan se ascend karte hue 154.25 tak pohanch gaya.

Envelope ke technical indicators suggest karte hain ke prices barhne ke imkaan hain. MACD indicator positive territory mein hai, aur Stochastic indicator buyer activity ke signs dikha raha hai. Umeed hai ke price 157.01 ke level tak rise karte rahegi. Yeh analysis key levels aur technical indicators ko highlight karta hai, jab ke upward aur downward movements ko bhi anticipate karta hai. Effective navigation ke liye strategic planning aur market developments se updated rehna zaroori hai.

USD/JPY Currency Pair Analysis

USD/JPY currency pair ne doosray din bhi apni upward trajectory continue rakhi, jo zyada tar Bank of Japan (BoJ) ke dovish stance se driven thi. Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida ke is bayan ke baad ke central bank market instability ke dauran interest rates nahi barhaye ga, yen ki weakness aur mazid barh gayi. Jab ke Federal Reserve ke anticipated interest rate cuts ki wajah se USD/JPY mein mazid upside limited ho sakti hai, pair ne increasing strength dikhai hai. Technical indicators yeh suggest karte hain ke momentum bearish se bullish mein shift ho sakta hai. Pair ka nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ki taraf climb aur RSI ka oversold level ke upar position lena yeh indicate karta hai ke short-term rebound ki likelihood barh rahi hai. USD/JPY ke liye immediate support 140.25 level par hai, jab ke resistance nine-day EMA ke qareeb 149.22 par anticipate ki ja rahi hai. Key resistance levels mein 154.50 aur 50-day EMA bhi shamil hain.



Agar Monday ke low 146.58 ke upar ek decisive break hoti hai, jo ke ek bullish doji candlestick pattern form karega, to nayi buying interest ignite ho sakti hai aur pair 149.00 level tak propel ho sakta hai. Iske baad agar 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) par 151.50 ka breakthrough hota hai, to upward momentum 20-day SMA tak accelerate ho sakta hai jo ke 153.20 par hai. Lekin, pair ka recent rally abhi tak bearish sentiment ko mukammal tor par erase nahi kar saka, jese ke RSI aur Stochastic oscillators ka oversold territory mein rehna zahir karta hai. Is liye, short-term correction ya consolidation ke imkaan ko mukammal tor par nazar andaz nahi kiya ja sakta. Aakhir mein, USD/JPY ki trajectory ka daromadar BoJ ke monetary policy, Federal Reserve ke actions, aur overall market sentiment par hoga. Traders ko 200-day SMA ke upar 155.00 ke breaking trendline par nazar rakhni chahiye, phir bullish continuation ka imkaan previous high 162.30 tak ho sakta hai.

USD/JPY currency pair abhi 145.87 par hai, jo bearish trend ko reflect kar raha hai. Market movements abhi dheemi chal rahi hain, jo consolidation ya kam volatility ko dikhati hain. Lekin, is waqt ke sukoon ke bawajood, mujhe lagta hai ke USD/JPY pair aane wale dino mein significant movement dikha sakta hai, jo kai aham factors ki wajah se hoga.

### Economic Indicators

Economic indicators ek ahem factor hote hain jo currency pairs ke movements ko influence karte hain, jaise ke USD/JPY. United States aur Japan dono se aane wale key economic data future trends ko shape karne mein madadgar honge. USD ke liye, jaise ke Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), inflation data, aur GDP growth figures kaafi ahem hain aur in se currency ki strength par asar pad sakta hai. Agar NFP report expected se zyada strong aata hai, toh ye USD ko majbooti de sakta hai, jo current bearish trend ko reverse kar sakta hai.

Doosri taraf, Japan ke economic indicators, jaise ke GDP growth, unemployment rates, aur inflation data, JPY ko influence karenge. Japan ne kaafi arsay se low inflation aur slow economic growth ka samna kiya hai, jo aksar yen ko kamzor karta hai. Lekin agar in indicators mein koi improvement aata hai, toh JPY majboot ho sakta hai, jo USD/JPY pair par additional downward pressure dal sakta hai.

### Central Bank Policies

Central bank policies jo Federal Reserve (Fed) aur Bank of Japan (BoJ) se aati hain, wo USD/JPY pair ki direction ko tay karne mein crucial hoti hain. Fed ki interest rates par stance, especially inflationary pressures ke context mein, traders ke liye kaafi important hogi. Fed ne inflation ke khilaf ladaai ke liye interest rates ko badhaya hai, jo aam tor par USD ke liye supportive hota hai. Lekin, agar Fed kisi pause ya rate cut ka ishara deta hai, toh USD kamzor ho sakta hai, jo current bearish trend ko aur strong kar sakta hai.

Iske baraks, Bank of Japan (BoJ) ki policies bhi utni hi ahem hain. BoJ ne bohot accommodative monetary policy rakhi hui hai, negative interest rates aur yield curve control ke zariye economy ko stimulate karne ke liye. Agar is policy mein koi shift hota hai, jaise monetary conditions ka tightening, toh ye JPY ko majboot kar sakta hai, aur USD/JPY pair ko neeche dhakel sakta hai.

### Global Economic Conditions

Global economic conditions bhi USD/JPY pair ke movements mein significant role play karte hain. Jaise ke, agar global economic growth par concerns hoti hain ya koi geopolitical tensions hoti hain, toh investors safe-haven assets, jaise ke JPY, mein investment karna pasand karte hain, jo yen ko majboot banata hai. Ulta, agar global economy mein positive developments hoti hain, toh risk sentiment boost ho sakta hai, jo USD ko majboot kar sakta hai aur bearish trend ka reversal ho sakta hai.

China ki ongoing economic challenges, jo ke U.S. aur Japan dono ke liye ek major trading partner hai, USD/JPY pair par asar dal sakta hai. Agar China ki economy slow hoti hai, toh yen majboot ho sakta hai kyunki investors safe-haven assets dhund rahe honge, jabke agar China recover karta hai, toh USD support ho sakta hai kyunki global trade aur growth prospects improve honge.

### Geopolitical Events

Geopolitical events bhi ek aur critical factor hain jo USD/JPY pair mein significant movements laa sakte hain. Major global powers ke darmiyan tensions, trade policies mein changes, ya unexpected political events forex market mein volatility badha sakti hain. JPY ko aksar safe-haven currency mana jata hai, jo iska matlab hai ke geopolitical uncertainty ke doran, yen mazid majboot hota hai kyunki investors safety dhundte hain.

For example, agar U.S. aur uske trading partners ke darmiyan trade tensions escalate hoti hain, toh yen mazid majboot hoga aur USD/JPY pair weak hoga. Ulta, agar in tensions ka solution milta hai ya geopolitical developments positive hoti hain, toh USD ko boost mil sakta hai, jo USD/JPY pair mein bullish reversal la sakta hai.

### Technical Analysis

Technical analysis ke perspective se dekha jaye, toh USD/JPY pair abhi bearish trend mein hai, lekin kuch indicators suggest karte hain ke significant movement kareeb hai. Traders key support aur resistance levels ko closely dekh rahe honge taake potential entry aur exit points identify kar sakein. Current level 145.87 significant support zones ke kareeb hai, aur agar ye levels break hotay hain, toh ye further bearish momentum ka signal de sakte hain.

Technical indicators, jaise ke moving averages, Relative Strength Index (RSI), aur MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) bhi trends ko identify karne mein kaafi crucial hain. For instance, agar RSI yeh indicate karta hai ke pair oversold hai, toh ye potential buying opportunity ko suggest kar sakta hai. Isi tarah, agar MACD mein bullish crossover ka sign milta hai, toh iska matlab ho sakta hai ke bearish trend lose momentum kar raha hai aur reversal mumkin hai.

### Market Sentiment

Market sentiment bhi ek aur important factor hai jab USD/JPY pair ko analyze karte hain. Traders aur investors ka overall sentiment pair ki direction ko influence kar sakta hai. Agar USD ke liye sentiment bearish rehta hai U.S. economic data ya Fed policy ke concerns ki wajah se, toh pair apni downward trajectory continue kar sakta hai. Lekin, agar sentiment USD ke favor mein shift hota hai, shayad stronger-than-expected economic data ya hawkish Fed ki wajah se, toh pair mein bullish reversal dekhne ko mil sakta hai.

Abhi market sentiment cautious lag raha hai, traders economic data aur central bank policies ke baare mein zyada clarity ka wait kar rahe hain. Lekin, koi bhi unexpected news ya data sentiment ko jaldi shift kar sakta hai aur USD/JPY pair mein significant movements la sakta hai.

### Conclusion

In conclusion, jabke USD/JPY currency pair abhi dheere move kar raha hai aur bearish trend mein hai, lekin kai factors suggest karte hain ke significant movement kareeb hai. Economic indicators, central bank policies, global economic conditions, geopolitical events, technical analysis, aur market sentiment sab crucial roles play karenge future direction ko tay karne mein. Traders aur investors ko in factors ko closely monitor karna chahiye taake forex market mein potential opportunities aur risks ko anticipate kar sakein aur unka response de sakein.

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis

Pichlay do dinon mein, USD/JPY currency pair mein aham utar chadhav dekhnay ko mila hai, jo mukhtalif economic aur geopolitical factors se mutasir hua. 5 August ko yen mazid mazboot hua aur saat mah ke high tak pohanch gaya jab Japanese authorities ne currency market mein mudakhlat ki aur takreeban 5.53 trillion yen kharch kar ke yen ko support kiya. Yeh mudakhlat us waqt hui jab 10 saala Japanese government bond ke yield mein girawat dekhi gayi, jo ke 0.8% se neeche chala gaya. Yeh isliye hua kyunki umeed thi ke Federal Reserve, weak US jobs data ke baad, interest rates zyada aggressively cut karega.

Isi din, Bank of Japan (BoJ) ne aik achanak rate hike ka elan kiya, apna benchmark interest rate 0.25% tak barhaya aur yeh signal diya ke agar economic conditions supportive rahi to wo mazeed rates barhate rahenge. Yeh qadam us waqt uthaya gaya jab Japan ko mukhtalif economic challenges ka samna hai, jese ke private consumption mein kami aur contracting economy.

Doosri taraf, US ko disappointing economic data ka samna tha, jisme weak manufacturing PMI aur potential economic slowdown ke concerns shamil hain. In factors ke ilawa, US earnings reports bhi umeed se kam aayi, jo US stock futures mein girawat ka sabab banay aur USD/JPY pair par pressure dala. Federal Reserve ke commentary mein yeh ishara bhi diya gaya ke US labor market ko protect karne ke liye wo kisi bhi aggressive rate cuts mein dair kar sakte hain.

Overall, BoJ ke hawkish stance aur Fed ke cautious approach ne USD/JPY pair ke liye aik volatile environment create kar diya hai. Investors central bank policies aur economic data par barah-e-raast nazar rakhe hue hain taake future movements ko samajh sakein, aur khaas tor par US jobs report aur dono central banks se mazeed monetary policy adjustments par tawajju de rahe hain.




Technical Forecast & Trading Strategy

Aaj, main dekh raha hoon ke US dollar index aik acha value hold kar raha hai. Iske natijay mein, USD/JPY apna 146.00 ka high torne mein kamyab raha. Is level ko torne ke baad, humne dekha ke quote broken resistance tak neeche aaya aur us level ko respect karte hue wapas rebound kar gaya. Iska matlab hai ke US dollar, Japanese yen ke muqable mein mazid mazboot ho raha hai. Daily chart par do bottoms current price level ke qareeb hain, jo ke currency price ke liye resistance ka kaam kar rahe hain. Agar 146.80 se upar break hota hai, to yeh humein aik buying opportunity de sakta hai.

1-hour chart par, USD/JPY pair ko ab upar jaane ka acha mauka mil raha hai, kyunki price ko support mil raha hai price channels se aur weekly level 143.56 se. Aaj trading price descending price channels ke andar shuru hui jo ke pichle do dino ke price movement ka direction tha, lekin aaj humne direction ko upar jaane ki koshish dekhi hai, aur ye koshish ab tak successful rahi hai.
Bhale hi price upar neeche ho rahi hai channels ke beech aur kal ke highest trading prices ke beech, lekin current support level price ko wapas upar le aaya hai taake highest trading price ko todne ki koshish kare aur upar jane ka silsila jari rakhe.

Iss waqt trading advice ye hai ke aap current level se buy karein aur weekly pivot level tak hold karein, lekin stop-loss level ko 143.56 ke neeche set karen.

Economic side par, Japanese yen ki sharp gains jari hain, jo ke 141.70 ke level tak jump kar gayi, jo ke January 2024 ke shuruat ke baad se apna sabse uncha level hai. Ye sab BoJ ke interest rates ko agle chand mahino mein mazeed barhane ki bets ki wajah se ho raha hai, jabke US Federal Reserve ke interest rates ko zyada aggressively cut karne ki umeed hai. Forecasts ne kaha ke weak jobs report ne US mein recession ke khauf ko badha diya hai, jo markets ko September mein 50 basis point interest rate cut ka price in karne par majboor kar raha hai.

Darmiyan, BoJ ne apna benchmark interest rate pichle hafta 0.25% tak barha diya aur ishara diya ke agar economy mazboot rahi toh wo rates ko aur bhi barha sakte hain. Financial markets is fiscal year jo ke March 2025 mein khatam ho rahi hai, mein do aur rate hikes ka bet laga rahe hain, jisme agla increase December mein expected hai. Central bank ne ye bhi announce kiya ke wo agle do saal mein apni monthly bond purchases ko aadha karne ka plan bana rahe hain.

Kahin aur, data ne dikhaya ke Japanese authorities ne July mein currency ko support karne ke liye 5.53 trillion yen kharch kiye.

USD/JPY market mein zyada tabdeeli nahi dekhi gayi, aur ye jo jhila 156.60 ke aas-paas tha. US dollar ke liye positive news data ne uski value ko barhaya hai, jo buyers ko attract kar raha hai. Is wajah se short-term traders ko ehtiyaat se trade karna chahiye aur apni strategies ko accordingly adjust karna chahiye.
Pichle trading week mein yen kaafi mazboot raha. 158.43 level ke neeche break karne ke baad, price ne stabilize karna manage kiya aur opposite direction mein retest ke baad tezi se neeche ki taraf chala gaya, 156.54 level ko break kiya, lekin phir is level ke paas wapas aa gaya, aur girawat ko thoda sa recover kar diya. Is tarah, expected emission reduction scenario ka hissa mukammal hua hai, lekin target area abhi tak haasil nahi hua. Is dauraan, price chart supertrend ke red zone mein bana hua hai, jo sellers ke control ko dikhata hai.
158.60 ke critical resistance ko clear karne mein nakami ke baad, ek strong bearish trend ne USD/JPY par qabza kar liya, jisne isse bearish corrective trend mein negatively trade karne par majboor kar diya. Technical analysis ke lehaz se, aaj hum downside ki taraf jaane ka rujhan rakh rahe hain kyunki stochastics ki upward momentum ki kami ke saath simple moving averages ka negative crossover bhi hai. Isliye, 155.00 ko starting point ke taur par rakhte hue, corrective decline ka sustainable aur effective rehna mumkin hai, jiski break se losses badh sakti hain aur shayad 153.55 aur 153.00 levels ko hit kar sake.
USD/JPY market kai factors se influence hota hai, including economic data aur news events. Is complex environment ko navigate karne ke liye, traders ko disciplined, informed, aur adaptable rehna zaroori hai. D1 chart se milne wale insights aur news events ka impact, ek well-rounded trading strategy ki importance ko emphasize karte hain. Key support aur resistance levels par focus karna, market trends ko monitor karna, aur long-term perspective maintain karna, traders ke success chances ko enhance karta hai.

Doosray din bhi, US dollar ne Japanese yen (USD/JPY) ke against rebound karne ki koshish ki taake apne halya tezi se hone wale nuqsan ko compensate kar sake, jo usay January 2024 ke baad se apne lowest level 141.68 tak le gaya. Yeh rebound tab aaya jab Japanese yen ne doosri major currency markets mein strong jump kiya, khaaskar US dollar ke against. Halya rebound gains ne 147.89 ka level touch kiya.
Dollar yen mein yeh recent rebound Bank of Japan ke Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida ke is bayan ke baad aaya ke agar markets unstable hue to woh interest rates nahi barhayege. Magar, markets yeh expect kar rahi hain ke Japanese central bank mazeed interest rates barhaye ga kyunke domestic wages barhne se inflation barh raha hai. Monday ko yen apne highest levels par pohch gaya, jo ke saat mahine mein sabse zyada tha, kyunke Tokyo se currency interventions aur Bank of Japan ki hawkish monetary policy shift ne yen trading mein major unwinding ko prompt kiya.

Isi dauran, yeh movement US mein badhti hui recession fears aur disappointing tech earnings ki wajah se global sell-off ko fuel kar raha hai, jo riskier assets mein emergency rate cut ke bets ko bada raha hai. Magar, market sentiment ab stabilize ho gaya hai, aur analysts yeh suggest kar rahe hain ke recent global sell-off shayad overdone tha.

Investors ke sentiment mein ek aur concern yeh hai ke 10-year Japanese government bond ka yield Wednesday ko lagbhag 0.86% tak gir gaya jab Bank of Japan ke Deputy Governor Uchida ne kaha ke agar market unstable hui to woh interest rates nahi barhayege. Magar, markets expect kar rahi hain ke central bank mazeed rates barhaye ga kyunke domestic wages barhne se inflation bhi upar ja raha hai. Halya data ne dikhaya ke Japan ne June mein 27 mahine mein pehli dafa real wages mein izafa record kiya hai, kyunke nominal wage growth inflation se tez thi.

USD/JPY ka Forecast Aaj

USD/JPY mein bearish turn abhi bhi sabse zyada strong hai aur recent losses ne daily chart par technical indicators ko strong oversold levels tak le aya hai. Main USD/JPY ko support levels 143.80 aur 142.00 se buy karna pasand karunga baghair kisi risk ke. Dosri taraf, psychological resistance level 150.00 bulls ke liye sabse important rahega trend ko wapas control mein lane ke liye. USD/JPY ka price future central bank policies aur investor sentiment ke hawalay se risk appetite par depend karta rahega.

USD/JPY/H1/ 155.22-155.20.

Japanese Yen (JPY) ki qeemat barh rahi hai. Teesre din se yen mazid mazboot ho raha hai, shayad isliye ke investors apne paise ko suraksha ke liye nikal rahe hain. Yeh ummed ke saath ho raha hai ke Bank of Japan (BoJ) apni agle hafte ke policy meeting mein interest rates barhane wala hai. Is policy ke tabdeeli ki wajah se short sellers apne positions chhod rahe hain, jo yen ko aur bhi mazboot kar raha hai. Iske ilawa, Japan ki ruling party ke senior afraad BoJ se keh rahe hain ke woh apni monetary policy ko dheere-dheere normal karne ke plan ko zyada wazeh kare. Yeh Prime Minister Fumio Kishida ke growth-based Japanese economy ke nazariye ke mutabiq hai, jo unka kehna hai ke iske liye central bank ki policy normalization zaroori hai. Dusri taraf, US Dollar (USD) ko kuch mushkilat ka saamna hai. Federal Reserve ke rate cut ke zyada daawon se USD ko nuksan ho raha hai.

Daily timeframe par Bollinger bands indicator ko monitor karte huye dekha ja sakta hai ke price Middle Bollinger bands area ke neeche hai aur abhi bhi price sellers ke dwara maintain ki ja rahi hai jo Lower Bollinger bands area ki taraf barh rahi hai. Yeh area bearish sellers ke liye target ban sakta hai aaj ke trading mein. Market support bhi bearish candlesticks ke dominance se dekhi ja rahi hai jo yeh dikha rahi hai ke USD/JPY market pair ab bhi kaafi strong bearish trend mein hai. Agar Lower Bollinger bands area, jo ke 155.24-155.20 ke aas-paas hai, ko validly break kiya jaata hai, to USD/JPY pair ki qeemat aur bhi kam ho sakti hai, aur agla target buyers ke demand support area ki taraf ho sakta hai.

USD/JPY/H1/ 155.22-155.20.

Wednesday subah Asian market session mein buyers ne price ko upar le jaane ki koshish ki hai, bullish movement ka target yeh hai ke wo nearest seller resistance area, jo ke 156.60-156.62 ke aas-paas hai, ko penetrate kar sake. Agar yeh strong penetration se ho jaata hai, to USD/JPY pair ki qeemat aur bhi zyada barh sakti hai, aur agla target seller's supply resistance area, jo ke 157.45-157.47 ke aas-paas hai, ho sakta hai. Lekin agar yeh fail ho jaata hai, to USD/JPY pair ko phir se sellers control karenge jo ke price ko niche le jaake support area, jo ke 155.22-155.20 ke aas-paas hai, ko test karne ka plan bana rahe hain.

USD/JPY currency pair ne do din se apni upar ki taraf chalne ki trajectory ko barhaya, jo ke mainly Bank of Japan ke continued dovish stance ki wajah se hai. Deputy Governor ka bayan ke central bank market instability ke dauran interest rates nahi barhaye ga, yen ki kamzori ko barhawa de raha hai. Jabke Federal Reserve ke interest rate cuts ke mumkinah hone ki wajah se USD/JPY ke liye further upside ka potential kuch limited lagta hai, lekin yeh pair dheere dheere strong hota ja raha hai. Technical indicators yeh darshate hain ke bearish se bullish ki taraf momentum shift ho sakta hai. USD/JPY ka nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ki taraf chadhai aur RSI ka oversold level se upar hona, short-term rebound ke chances ko barhata hai.

Immediate support USD/JPY ke liye 140.25 level par hai, jabke resistance nine-day EMA ke aas-paas 149.22 par honay ki ummeed hai. Key resistance levels mein 154.50 level aur 50-day EMA bhi shamil hain. Agar USD/JPY Monday ke low 146.58 ko todte hue ek bullish candlestick pattern banata hai, toh naye buying interest ka signal mil sakta hai jo pair ko 149.00 level tak le ja sakta hai. Agar 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) 151.50 ko break kiya jata hai, toh upward momentum tez ho sakta hai aur 20-day SMA 153.20 tak chadhne ke chances hain. Lekin, pair ki recent rally abhi tak bearish sentiment ko puri tarah se khatam nahi kar payi hai, jaise RSI aur Stochastic oscillators abhi bhi oversold territory mein hain. Isliye, short-term correction ya consolidation ka potential bhi entirely rule out nahi kiya ja sakta. Aakhir mein, USD/JPY ka trajectory monetary policy, Federal Reserve ke actions, aur overall market sentiment ke interplay par depend karega. Traders ko 200-day ke break hone ke baad 155.00 ke upar dekhna chahiye, tab bullish trend pehle ke high ke aas-paas continue ho sakta hai.

**USD/JPY Ka Analysis aur Trading Strategy**

**Haalat-e-Hazira**

USD/JPY ka jo jo جوڑا 145 ke upar wapas aa gaya hai ek significant girawat ke baad, magar overall movement ab bhi bearish hai, jisse aur neeche jaane ka potential hai. Yeh joڑا 146.70 ke aas-paas trade kar raha hai, jab ke isne is haftay 148.00 ka level test kiya.

**Key Levels:**
**Support:**
- Level 140.25 (December mein key support level noted)
- Level 140.15 (false breakout ke liye possible level aur potential buying opportunities)

**Resistance:**
- Level 148.57 (nine-day EMA)
- Level 149.22 (nine-day EMA resistance barrier)
- Level 154.50 (return support turned resistance)
- Level 155.58 (50-day EMA)

**Technical Indicators:**
- **RSI (Relative Strength Index):** 14-day RSI 30 ke niche hai, jo keh raha hai ke pair oversold hai aur short-term rebound ka potential hai.
- **MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):** Pehle bearish divergence dikhaya, jo ke strong downward momentum ko indicate karta hai.
- **CCI (Commodity Channel Index):** Bearish divergence bhi dikhaya, jo downward trend ko support karta hai.

**Weekly Chart Ka Analysis:**

Weekly chart pe nazar daalain to price ne pichle kuch hafton mein significant girawat dekhi hai. Yeh decline technical indicators ki wajah se anticipate kiya gaya tha, khaaskar MACD pe bearish divergence ki wajah se. CCI ne bhi chhoti bearish divergence dikhayi. Fundamental factors bhi is girawat mein shamil hain, jisme Bank of Japan ka interest rates raise karna shamil hai.

Price ne 152.17 level aur ascending trendline ko break kiya aur lagbhag 140.81 support level tak pahunch gaya. Ek correction ke baad, price ne niche se previously broken ascending trendline ko touch kiya, jo ke naye wave of decline ka indication hai. Lekin, deeply oversold CCI ek deeper upward correction ka bhi indication de raha hai.

**H4 Chart Ka Analysis:**

H4 chart pe, price stuck lagti hai. Yeh pehle broken daily trendline ko niche se approach kar rahi hai aur ab 146.02 support level se held up hai. Is level ko upar se test karne se bounce mila hai, jo zyada upside potential ka indication hai. Selling tabhi consider karein jab price successfully 146.02 support level ko break kar ke isse resistance banaye aur ideally baad mein retest karein.

**Trading Strategy:**

**Bearish Scenario:**
- Short positions par focus karein kyunki overall trend bearish hai.
- Dekhein agar price 146.02 ke neeche break karti hai aur is level ko resistance ke taur par confirm karti hai to potential short entries ke liye.
- 140.15 level ke aas-paas price action ko monitor karein, shayad false breakout ke baad buying opportunities mil sakti hain.

**Bullish Scenario:**
- Long positions tab consider karein agar price 148.57 (nine-day EMA) ko break aur hold karti hai.
- 149.22 level ko potential resistance ke taur par monitor karein.
- 154.50 level (return support turned resistance) aur 155.58 level (50-day EMA) ki taraf rebound ke liye dekhein.

**Conclusion:**

Jabke pair ne recovery dikhayi hai, lekin primary trend ab bhi bearish hai. Upar diye gaye support aur resistance levels ko closely monitor karna zaroori hai. Overall market sentiment aur Bank of Japan ke actions future movements mein crucial roles play karenge. Filhal, clear signals ke liye in levels ka wait karna behtar hoga long-term trades commit karne se pehle.

USD/JPY currency pair ne do dinon se apni upar ki taraf chalti rahein hai, jo aksar Bank of Japan ki chalu dovish stance ki wajah se hai. Bank ke Deputy Governor ne haali mein dohraaya ke central bank bazar ke behtareen arzoon mein interest rates nahi badhaega, jo yen ki kamzori ko barhata hai. Halankeh Federal Reserve ke potential interest rate cuts ka inaam, jo USD/JPY pair ke liye aage ki taraf upar jaane ki had ko seemit kar sakta hai, iski haal ki kaamiyabi dikhata hai ke yeh increasingly majboot hota ja raha hai.

Technical indicators yeh darust kar rahe hain ke momentum bearish se bullish ki taraf shift ho sakta hai USD/JPY ke liye. Yeh pair nau din ki Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke kareeb aa raha hai, jabke Relative Strength Index (RSI) oversold levels se upar ki taraf ja raha hai, jo ek aisa short-term rebound signal kar raha hai. USD/JPY ke liye foran support 140.25 ka level hai, jabke resistance nau din ki EMA ke kareeb, jo 149.22 hai, par dekha ja raha hai. Mazeed key resistance levels 154.50 aur 50-day EMA par hain.

Ek aham technical development jo dekhne wali hai, woh hai 146.58 ka decisive break, jo Monday ki low hai, jo ek bullish candlestick pattern bana sakta hai. Aisa breakout naye buying interest ko janam de sakta hai, jo is pair ko 149.00 ki taraf le ja sakta hai. Agar 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) 151.50 ka break ho, toh upward momentum aur tez ho sakta hai, is pair ko 20-day EMA ke taraf 153.20 le ja sakta hai.

Magar, yeh zaroori hai ke hum dekhain ke haal ki rally ke bawajood, bearish jazbat poori tarah khatam nahi hui hain. RSI aur Stochastic oscillators ab bhi oversold territory mein hain, jo yeh darust karta hai ke ek short-term correction ya consolidation ab bhi mumkin hai. Is liye, traders ko chahiye ke wo is pair ki key levels ke sath kaise interact karta hai, is par nazar rakhein, jisme 200-day SMA bhi shamil hai. Agar yeh 155.00 se zyada sustain karne mein kaamiyab hota hai, toh yeh continued bullish momentum ka signal de sakta hai, jo pehle ke highs tak phir se le ja sakta hai.

Aakhri taur pe, USD/JPY pair ka rukh kai factors se mutasir hai, jisme Bank of Japan ki monetary policy, Federal Reserve ke amal, aur overall market sentiment shamil hain. Traders ko in technical levels ko cross karte waqt further strength ya potential corrections ki nishaniyon par nazar rakhni chahiye.

USD/JPY currency pair, jo 146.03 par trade kar raha hai, filhal ek bearish trend ka shikaar hai, jo yeh darshata hai ke bazaar ka jazba Japanese yen ko U.S. dollar par tarjeeh de raha hai. Halankeh dheere dheere kami aa rahi hai, lekin khatarnaak harkaat ke liye mauqa ab bhi zyada hai jo agar bazaar ki halat ko mad e nazar rakha jaye.

USD/JPY ke mustaqbil ke harakaton ke key drivers mein macroeconomic factors, central bank ki policies, aur global risk ka jazba shamil hain. U.S. Federal Reserve ki monetary policy ismein ek ahem kirdar ada karti hai; agar kisi bhi waqt yeh kisi dovish stance ki taraf jaane ka ishara de ya interest rate hikes mein rukawat aaye, toh yeh U.S. dollar ko aur kamzor kar sakta hai, jo USD/JPY mein bearish trend ko barhata hai. Is ke muqabil, Bank of Japan ki lambay arse tak chalti rehne wali ultra-loose monetary policy ne yen ko kamzor rakha hai. Lekin agar BoJ ki taraf se kisi naye interest rate adjustment ki taraf koi achanak isi laga dene wala imkaan pata chalta hai, toh yeh yen ko majboot kar sakta hai aur USD/JPY ko neeche le ja sakta hai.

Global risk ka jazba bhi ek ahem role ada karta hai. Japanese yen aam tor par safe-haven currency ki tarah dekha jata hai aur bazaar ki na-standard surat-e-haal mein iski qeemat barh jati hai. Agar duniya mein kisi bhi maqami masla ya geopolitical tensions mein izafa hota hai, toh yeh investers ko yen ki taraf kheench sakta hai, jo USD/JPY pair mein tezi se kami ka sabab ban sakta hai.

Technical analysis yeh darshata hai ke USD/JPY pair ek aham harkat ki taraf ja raha hai. Filhal ka bearish trend aur kam volatility yeh darshata hai ke bazaar shayad kisi aham qeemat ki tabdili se pehle sanshshwark ki taraf ja raha hai. Key support levels ko monitor karna bohot zaroori hai; agar inhein cross kiya gaya toh yeh pair ki tezi se kami ka sabab ban sakta hai. Iske baraks, agar market ka jazba badalta hai toh support levels ka mazboot hona zaroori hoga.

Aane wale U.S. economic data releases, jisme employment figures aur inflation statistics shamil hain, USD/JPY pair par ahm asar daal sakti hain. Agar economic data acha aata hai, toh yeh U.S. dollar ko thora tasalli de sakta hai, jo bearish trend ko ulat sakta hai. Iske muqabil, agar data disappointing hota hai, toh yeh neeche ki taraf momentum ko mazid barhata hai. Behtar ma'ashiyat ke kisi bhi ghatna, jaise ke behtar growth ya barhti hui inflation Japan ke liye, yeh yen ko mazid support de sakta hai, jo USD/JPY pair ko neeche le ja sakta hai.

Wider geopolitical landscape bhi zaroori hai. Trade disputes, political events, aur bade global powers ke darmiyan tensions forex market ki volatility ko barha sakti hain. USD/JPY pair ki U.S. aur Japanese economic conditions par sensitivity ki wajah se, aise developments iska amal bohot zyada asar daal sakte hain.

Mukhtasir mein, USD/JPY pair filhal ek dheemi bearish trend mein hai, lekin mukhtalif asraat—central bank ki policies, economic data, aur global risk ka jazba—darshata hai ke aham harkat ka imkaal ho sakta hai. Traders aur investors ko in asraat par nazar rakhni chahiye taake wo USD/JPY pair ki khudrat ko samajh sakein.

Waqt ka ta trading chat par USDJPY

Is waqt, is currency pair USDJPY ke senior weekly chart par dekhne ko milta hai ke price pichle kuch hafton mein tezi se neeche gira hai. Yahan kuch technical indicators hain, jo sab se ahem hai bearish divergence MACD indicator par. Lekin doosra indicator jo istemal kiya gaya, CCI, bhi oonche se bearish divergence dikhata hai, lekin chhoti si. Neeche girne ke liye kuch wajahen hain, jo buniyadi tor par bhi hain. Bank of Japan apni national currency ke kamzor hone ko aur bardasht nahi kar sakti, hazaron crore rupay market mein daalne ke bawajood bhi sakoonat nahi aayi aur unhein interest rate barhane par majboor hona pada. Iske baad, aik bade phelaav ki shuruat hui. Is phelaav ke doran, 152.17 ka level toota aur phir ek oonchi line bhi. Price ne lagbhag 140.81 ke support level tak pohanchne ki koshish ki, lekin puri tarah se nahi pohanch paya. Phir ek upar ki correction shuru hui aur yeh dekhne ko mila ke yeh neeche se todne wale oonche line ko chhu raha hai, yahan se ek naye gireh ka shuru hona mumkin hai. Lekin CCI indicator thoda confuse karta hai, jo neeche ke garam zone mein gaya hai. Upar ki taraf thoda bada rollback hona mumkin hai jo abhi tak hai, yahan dekhna zaroori hai ke price ka H4 par kya haal hai, kya mazeed barhane ke liye koi buniyadi baatein hain ya gireh shuru karne ke liye. Yeh ek ghata evam pehchaan bhari surat-e-haal hai, mera khayal hai ke buyers aur sellers dono ke liye mauke barabar hain.

H4 period ka chart

Is period par yeh wazeh hai ke price lagbhag atka hua sa lagta hai, neeche se upar tak pehle tooti hui daily line ki taraf barh raha hai aur 146.02 ka support level use neeche nahi jaane de raha. Is level ka upar se test kiya gaya aur price oopar chala gaya, jabke potential sirf zyada hai. Bechne ka sochna tabhi behtar hai jab price 146.02 ke support level ke neeche mazbooti se pahunche. Yeh behtareen mauka hoga agar is level ko neeche se baad mein test kiya jaye. Aaj ka aham khabar 15-30 Moscow waqt par: USA mein pehli baar baireez hone wale faida ke liye applications ki tadad, aur USA mein faida hasil karne wale logo ki total tadad.