𝐔𝐒𝐃/𝐉𝐏𝐘

USD/JPY Technical analysis

Price ne aaj trading shuru ki hai weekly pivot level 147.40 ke upar, jo ke upward trend ko indicate karta hai. Kal ke price trend bearish tha, is liye red channel ka direction bearish hai, jabke blue channel do din ke price movement ko represent karta hai. Dusre alfaz mein, humare paas pehle ek upward wave thi, phir ek downward correction hua, aur channels ke sath price ka behavior aaj ke trend ko decide kar sakta hai. Neeche wala blue channel line price ko support de raha hai, aur red channel upward break ho chuka hai, is liye ab price upward trend mein hai. Kal ke din, price ke 147.90 ke resistance level ko break karne ke chances hain aur uske upar stable hone par aur bhi upside dekhne ko mil sakta hai.

H4 time frame:

Price ne upward price channels ko break karte hue weekly resistance level 146.70 ko bhi break kiya hai. Is hafte, pair ne ek sideways channel ke andar open kiya aur weekly pivot levels ko narrow range ke sath close kiya, jisme sideways movement dekhi gayi. Price weekly support level 146.60 tak gir gayi thi, phir usne bounce back karte hue resistance level ko break kiya, jo ke upward trend ka indication hai, chahe price us level tak gir gayi thi. Agar candle 147.10 ke upar close hoti hai, toh hum price ko 147.75 aur phir 147.89 tak upar jate hue dekh sakte hain. Yeh bhi note kiya jana chahiye ke Price ne upar jane ke baad phir se girawat dekhi thi, lekin channel ke line se support mila, jahan se yeh upper line of the channel tak pohonchi aur usko upward break kar diya.

USDJPY pair ke 1-hour chart par, abhi price ko upar janay ka acha mauka mil raha hai, kyun ke price ko support mil raha hai price channels se aur weekly level 143.56 se. Aaj ka trading descending price channels mein shuru hua jo ke pichlay do dinon ke doran price movement ka direction tha, lekin aaj humaray paas direction change karke upar janay ki koshish hai, aur yeh ab tak kaamyab hui hai.

Price channels ke darmiyan aur kal ke highest trading prices ke darmiyan uthta girta raha hai, lekin current support level price ko phir se upar le ja raha hai taake highest trading price ko break karke rising trend ko continue kar sake. Is waqt ka trading advice yeh hai ke current level se buy karain aur weekly pivot level tak target rakhein, aur stop-loss level 143.56 ke neechay set karain.

Economic side par, Japanese yen mein sharp gains dekhnay ko mil rahe hain, jo ke 141.70 level tak pohonch gaya hai, jo ke January 2024 ke baad se highest level hai. Yeh is liye ho raha hai kyun ke market mein bets lag rahe hain ke Bank of Japan aglay mahino mein interest rates ko further raise karega, jab ke US Federal Reserve ke barre mein umeed hai ke woh aggressively interest rates cut karega. Yeh forecasts weak jobs report ke baad aaye hain, jo ke US mein recession ka dar paida kar rahi hain, jis ki wajah se markets mein yeh price in ho raha hai ke Federal Reserve September mein 50 basis point interest rate cut karega.

Is doran, Bank of Japan ne pichlay hafta apna benchmark interest rate 0.25% tak barhaya, aur yeh signal diya ke agar economy strong rahi, toh woh rates ko further raise karne ke liye tayar hain. Financial markets is fiscal year ke doran jo March 2025 mein khatam hoga, do aur rate hikes expect kar rahe hain, agla increase December mein expected hai. Central bank ne apni monthly bond purchases ko aglay do saalon mein aadha karne ka plan bhi announce kiya hai. Is ke ilawa, data se maloom hota hai ke Japanese authorities ne July mein currency ko support karne ke liye 5.53 trillion yen spend kiye hain.

USD is waqt JPY ke muqable mein mazbooti dikha raha hai aur achi upward movement kar raha hai. Magar kuch challenges hain jo aur ziada gains ko rok sakte hain. D1 timeframe par lagta hai ke pair 154.00 aur 154.40 ke darmiyan bounce kar sakta hai. Yeh range ek potential support zone represent karti hai jahan price temporarily retrace kar sakti hai pehle ke upward trend ko resume karne se pehle. Is bounce ke bawajood, upper bullish channel ki overall structure intact hai, jo long-term upward trend ko indicate karti hai. Traders ko in short-term fluctuations ko dekhna chahiye jab apne entries aur exits plan kar rahe hon D1 timeframe par, USD/JPY pair consistent bullish momentum dikhayi de raha hai. Current price action ne ek triangle pattern banaya hai, jo aksar consolidation period se pehle breakout ko indicate karta hai. Prevailing bullish sentiment ko dekhte hue, yeh highly likely hai ke pair ek upward breakout experience karega, jo 50-80 pips tak move kar sakta hai. Yeh breakout broader bullish trend ke sath align karega aur traders ko USD ki strength ke against JPY se capitalize karne ka mauka dega. Triangle pattern ka upper boundary ek key level hai jo traders ko anticipated breakout ke liye dekhna chahiye, jo potential buy signals ke liye clear indications offer kar sakta hai
Agar pair apne current levels se downturn experience karta hai, to ek strong re-entry opportunity 153.50 level par hai. Yeh level ek significant support zone ko represent karta hai jo further declines ko rok sakta hai aur traders ko long positions ke liye ek favorable entry point de sakta hai. Stop-losses ko strategically 153.83 level par place karna chahiye taake effectively risk manage kiya ja sake aur unforeseen market movements ke against protection mile. Support zone ke neeche stop-loss set karke, traders potential losses ko minimize kar sakte hain jabke anticipated upward movement se profit maximize kar sakte hain
Overall, current setup USD/JPY pair ke liye D1 timeframe par ek compelling opportunity present karta hai taake traders ongoing bullish trend se benefit le sakain, magar short-term fluctuations ko navigate karte waqt caution zaroori hai. Monday raat ke trades khulne ke baad se humari currency pair ki situation unchanged rahi hai, hum sideways move kar rahe hain jo 25 July se form hui thi. Clarity aur visual perception ke liye, maine screen par H1 timeframe choose kiya hai, jahan maine horizontal lines draw ki hain jo local resistance aur support act karti hain scalping enthusiasts ke liye. Aisi hi situation arise hoti hai jab Fibonacci grid use karte hain, jab tak hum hundred level ko break nahi karte, trading ki baat nahi ho sakti, intraday traders ko kaafi decent internal distance consider karna chahiye work ke liye, magar bina stop ke new positions open karna mumkin nahi. Economic calendar traders ko koi new information nahi deta, Japan aur USA se statistical data jo three-star category mein aata hai, absent hai. Meanwhile, hum 153 figure ko break karne ki doosri koshish observe kar rahe hain, impulses aaye hain, lekin humein sirf candle wicks dikhayi de rahi hain, jabke bodies upar hain

USD/JPY pair consistent bullish momentum dikha raha hai. Current price action ne ek triangle pattern banaya hai, jo typically consolidation period ko darshaata hai ek breakout se pehle. Dekhte hue prevailing bullish sentiment ko, yeh bohot zyada mumkin hai ke pair ek upward breakout experience karega, jo ke 50-80 pips tak move kar sakta hai. Yeh breakout broader bullish trend ke sath align karega aur traders ko USD ki strength ke against JPY ke sath capitalize karne ka moka dega. Triangle pattern ke upper boundary ek key level hai jo traders ko dekhnay chahiye anticipated breakout ke liye, jo ke potential buy signals ka clear indication de sakta hai. Agar pair apne current levels se downturn experience karta hai, toh ek strong re-entry opportunity 153.50 level par hai. Yeh level ek significant support zone ko represent karta hai jo ke further declines ko prevent kar sakta hai aur traders ko long positions ke liye ek favorable entry point offer kar sakta hai. Stop-loss ko strategically 153.83 level par place karna chahiye taake risk ko effectively manage kiya ja sake aur unforeseen market movements ke against protection mil sake. Support zone ke neeche stop-loss set karne se, traders potential losses ko minimize kar sakte hain jabke anticipated upward movement se profit ka chance maximize kar sakte hain. Overall, D1 timeframe par USD/JPY pair ka current setup ek compelling opportunity present karta hai traders ke liye ongoing bullish trend se benefit lene ke liye, halanke short-term fluctuations ko navigate karte waqt ehtiyat zaroori hai
USD/JPY pair ka downward trajectory jaari rehne ke imkaniyat hai. Bank of Japan ki interest rate policy aur aanewala U.S. labor market data pair ki direction ko shape karne mein pivotal hoga
Agar bullish sentiment wapas aaye, tou resistance level 155.50 par crucial hoga. Magar, agar key support level 145.00 se neechay break kar jaye tou mazeed declines ho sakte hain. Market participants ko in levels ko qaribi se dekhna chahiye aur apni strategies accordingly adjust karni chahiye
Conclusion
USD/JPY pair mazid bearish signals multiple technical indicators aur chart patterns par show karti hai. Jab ke pullback ki gunjaish hai, overall sentiment bearish rehta hai. Traders ko key resistance levels par shorting opportunities dekhni chahiye aur agar support levels breach ho, tou mazeed declines ke liye tayar rehna chahiye
Mukhtasir mein, USD/JPY pair ka bearish trend technical indicators aur haali market activity se supported hai. Central bank policies aur economic data releases ke bare mein updated rehna is market ko navigate karne ke liye crucial hoga. Aane wale haftay mein aap sab ko successful trades ki duain

USD/JPY currency pair ki technical analysis yeh dikhati hai ke downtrend ka silsila jari reh sakta hai, jo ke Triangular Moving Average (TMA) channel indicator se wazeh hota hai. Is southward movement ko Zigzag indicator aur Laguerre aur Relative Strength Index (RSI) jaise additional technical tools bhi support karte hain, jo ke overbought zone mein hain, aur short-selling ke moqe ka ishara dete hain. Market mein bearish sentiment ka bol-bala hai, aur analyst ka plan yeh hai ke -23.6% Fibonacci support level, jo ke 144.694 ke price par hai, par open position close kar deni chahiye. Risk ko kam karne ke liye, analyst stop-loss order ko breakeven level par le jayega jaise hi position profit mein chali jayegi. Yeh approach trader ko bearish momentum ka faida uthate hue potential price reversals se bachne mein madad dega US labor market data ki recent release ne USD/JPY ke price ko southward move karne par majboor kiya hai. Yeh development trader, Dmitry, ke liye khushi ka sabab hai, jo ke is bearish trend se profits enjoy kar raha hai. Magar analyst ka khayal hai ke Japanese yen itni dair tak vertically strengthen nahi kar payega, aur price eventually stabilize hoke consolidation ya shayad northward move kar sakti hai. Halankeh abhi market mein bearish sentiment hai, analyst warn karta hai ke US dollar ko mukammal taur par likhna ghalat hoga. American currency apni resilience ke liye mashhoor hai aur kisi waqt comeback kar sakti hai, chahe USD/JPY pair mein reversal se ya kisi aur currency pair mein strength se. Analyst market conditions ko closely monitor karega aur trading strategy ko accordingly adjust karega taake kisi bhi potential opportunities ka faida utha sake
Yeh note karna zaroori hai ke foreign exchange market mein trading ke andar inherent risks hote hain, aur investors ko hamesha thorough research karni chahiye, risk management strategies implement karni chahiye, aur professional guidance lena chahiye pehle ke kisi bhi investment decision ka. Federal Reserve ke agli meeting tak poora ek mahina baqi hai, is waqt currency pair ki price mein significant increase dekhne ko mil sakti hai. Yeh is liye ke dollar ki strength ke peeche jo factors hain, jaise ke US economy ka mazboot performance aur Fed ki hawkish monetary policy stance, ab tak fundamentally change nahi hue. Halankeh recent economic data release ke baare mein kuch log speculate kar rahe hain ke yeh government agencies ne manipulate kiya tha takay aane wale elections se pehle achi tasveer dikhayi ja sake, lekin dollar ka long-term trajectory abhi bhi bullish hai

D1 Period Chart - USDJPY Currency Pair. Jaise ke aap dekh saktay hain, price 152.16 ke horizontal support level ke upar nahi reh sakti. Kai din tak ye log uptrend ko promote karne ki koshish karte rahe, lekin bohat se buyers ne surface se accumulate kiya aur kal price ko neeche push kar diya. Ab jab ke main ascending support line tak pohanch gaye hain, jo ke waves ke bottom ke saath weekly chart par behtareen tareeke se dekha ja sakta hai. Ye line bohat powerful hai aur zyadatar ye broken support level 152.16 tak develop ho sakti hai, jo ke ab resistance ban chuka hai. Kal kuch rebound bhi hua, aur price ko wapas neeche dhakel diya gaya, lekin abhi bhi corrective growth ke liye yahan bohat potential hai kyun ke CCI indicator lower overheating zone mein hai aur aap isme farq dekh sakte hain. Toh, chhote intervals mein din ke andar, mein sirf upside ko consider kar raha hoon abhi ke liye, ek upside correction ke saath. Aaj 15-30 Moscow time par key news package: US mein average hourly earnings, US non-farm sector mein employees ki tadaad mein tabdeeliyan, US ki active population ka share, private enterprises mein jobs ki tadaad mein tabdeeliyan, aur US non-farm sector mein unemployment rate. Achha, line ke bohat qareeb sell karne ka koi faida nahi, market mein sab kuch mumkin hai aur phir neeche jaye. Magar ab MACD indicator par weekly period mein ek bohat bari bearish divergence dikh rahi hai. Waise, monthly chart par bhi MACD indicator par bearish divergence dekhi ja sakti hai. Toh ye mumkin hai ke ek bara drop aaye, lekin abhi bhi entries ke liye rollbacks ki zaroorat hai USD/JPY market ne khayali pulao paka liya hai. Haan, FOMC ke sath aane wale statement aur Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell ke press conference mein speech mein September mein Fed ki monetary policy ko easening ki taraf lay jane ke kai hints thay. Magar, sab decisions data par mabni honge. Is pehlu ke madde nazar, 2024 ke end tak rate cuts ke teen acts mein derivatives mein confidence kuch zyada lagta hai. Agar aisa hai, toh US dollar ke wapas aane ke ache chances hain. Powell ne isharah diya ke FOMC ne July ke meeting ke dauran rates ko neeche karne ka socha tha, lekin zyadatar officials ne samjha ke sab kuch waisa hi rehna chahiye. US economy inflation aur unemployment ke lehaz se achi jagah par hai, aur disinflationary processes ka development aur labor market ka aage chal kar thanda hona monetary policy easing ka rasta khol sakta hai. Ye issue September ke Fed ke next meeting mein phir se table par aa sakta hai

Jumay ke din, pehlay tou U.S. dollar ne Japanese yen ke muqable mein mushkilat ka samna kiya, lekin trade mein kafi kuch horaha tha. Yeh is baat ki nishani hai ke market abhi tak yeh samajhne ki koshish kar raha hai ke kya yeh 148.50 yen ke ahem resistance ko tor sakta hai, jo ke mazid mazboot momentum ka sabab ban sakta hai. Magar filhal dollar ek wasee lambe arsay ke trend mein muskilat ka samna kar raha hai, aur agar yeh level cross karne mein nakam hota hai tou yeh zyada bara risk bhi la sakta hai.

Mojooda surat-e-haal ko dekhte hue, is segment mein market ka range chhota rehne ka imkaan hai. Agar Monday ke swing low ke neechay break hoti hai tou yeh dollar ke liye khaas tor par khatarnaak nishani hogi, jo yeh darshati hai ke yen mazid mazboot ho sakta hai. Yeh group industry ke wasi masail, jaise deleveraging aur risk management, se qareebi tor par mutaliq hai. Halankeh humne dekha ke dollar-yen pair thoda sa idhar udhar hota raha hai, magar filhal is mein koi khaas excitement nazar nahi aata.

Yeh dono funds dekhne laayak hain, kyunke yeh market ke aam risk appetite ke baare mein qeemti maloomat faraham kar sakte hain. Dollar ka yen ke muqable mein reaction aam tor par duniya bhar ke financial markets ke trends ko reflect karta hai, jo ke asset classes mein traders ke liye ahem factor banata hai.

Akhir mein, agar U.S. dollar hamaray samne mazid barhnay ki koshish karta hai, tou usay ahem resistance mein baray challenges ka samna hai. Agar yeh is level ko tor nahi pata, tou yen mazboot reh sakta hai, khaaskar agar wasi market conditions risk-free ho jati hain. Traders ko in dono par qareebi nazar rakhni chahiye, kyunke yeh mazeed market ke direction ke hawale se ahem clues de sakte hain

Japanese Yen aur US Dollar ke Darmiyan Taqat ka Muwazna

Japanese yen ne US dollar ke muqablay mein apni taqat barha li hai, kyun ke Bank of Japan (BoJ) ne apni monetary policy ko zyada sakhti ki taraf le jaane ka faisla kiya hai. Central bank ke short-term interest rate target ko barhane aur government bond khareedari ko kam karne ke faislay ne mazeed policy tightening ki umeedon ko barhawa diya hai. Is tabdeeli ke saath, carry trade unwindings mein ahista rukawat ne yen ko upar le jaane mein madad ki hai. Doosri taraf, US dollar ko mushkilon ka samna hai, kyun ke Federal Reserve ke interest rate cuts ke mutawaqqa izhar ne dollar ki appeal ko kamzor kar diya hai. CME FedWatch tool ab September mein rate cut ki zyada probability ko dikhata hai, jis se dollar par dabao barh gaya hai.

USD/JPY pair is waqt takreeban 145.20 par trade kar raha hai, aur apni recent losing streak ko tor chuka hai. Technical analysis yeh dikhata hai ke 140.25 par support mil sakti hai aur 149.22 ke kareeb nine-day EMA par resistance ka samna ho sakta hai. Yeh pair aik ahem moqam par hai jab yeh 200-day simple moving average ko test kar raha hai. Agar yeh level ke neeche tor jata hai, to ek mazid downtrend ka aghaz ho sakta hai, jisme support levels 151.90-151.54 aur 151.09 par dekha ja sakta hai.

Lekin agar yeh pair nine-day EMA ke upar break karne mein kamyab ho jata hai, to isse 154.50 par declining support-turned-resistance level aur phir 155.58 par 50-day EMA par resistance ka samna ho sakta hai. Mazeed upward momentum Fibonacci retracement levels ko test kar sakta hai aur aakhirat mein 38 saal ke buland satah 161.94 ko challenge kar sakta hai. USD/JPY pair ki future direction ka daromadar BoJ ki monetary policy ki raah, US interest rate cuts ki raftaar, aur market sentiment par hoga.




Akhir mein, BoJ ke Wednesday ke faislay ne USDJPY ko mazid support faraham kiya, lekin yeh short term mein selling pressure ke neeche hai. Phir bhi, agar 200-day SMA ka downward breakdown hota hai, to yeh trend reversal ka ishara ho sakta hai.

USD/JPY Pair Ka Tajziya:

Pair apni downward trajectory ko jaari rakhta hua aaj subh ke Asian trading hours mein 144.00 mark ke kareeb hover kar raha hai. Halanke US Dollar mein thori si recovery ne kuch rahat faraham ki hai, magar Japanese yen ke recent depreciation ke bawajood Japan ki taraf se mudakhlat ka khauf barqarar hai, jo yen ko stabilize karne ke liye ki ja sakti hai.

US Economic Indicators aur Unka Asar:

Haal hi mein reports yeh dikhati hain ke US manufacturing mein teen mahine ka musalsal contraction dekha gaya hai, jismein ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) June mein May ke 48.7 se gir kar 48.5 par aa gaya, jo ke expected 49.1 se kam tha. In figures ke bawajood, Federal Reserve ke officials ki bullish sentiments ne Dollar ko support diya hai, jo future economic prospects par aitmaad dikhata hai.

Kamzor US economic data ke bawajood Greenback ki resilience underlying market confidence ko zahir karti hai, jo future trading patterns ko mutasir kar sakti hai. Traders ko chabi resistance levels par gehri nazar rakhni chahiye, khaaskar 164.88 mark, jab ke mazeed upward momentum ke doran possible corrections ke liye hoshiyar rehna zaroori hai.

Technical Analysis aur USD/JPY ke Ahem Levels:

Pair ko foran resistance 146.63 par hai, jismein mazeed rukawat 148.00 par aati hai. Agar yeh levels cross hote hain, to significant milestones jese ke 164.00 aur shayad 1986 ka high tak barh sakte hain. Market dynamics upward bias ko zahir karte hain, jismein Japanese authorities aur Bank of Japan (BoJ) ki taraf se minimal intervention ki
umeed hai.





Doosri taraf, agar downside movement 141.00 ke neeche hoti hai, to support levels ka test hoga, jo ke recent July 03 ka high 161.97 se shuru hota hai. Mazeed support zones mein Tenkan Sen 143.67 par aur Senkou Span A 148.90 par hain. Relative Strength Index (RSI) ke overbought conditions ko highlight karne ke bawajood, bullish momentum abhi bhi mazboot hai, jisme persistent buyer interest dikhayi deta hai, chahe market conditions kitni hi extreme kyu na hoon.

USD/JPY: Sab Kuch Badal Gaya 31 July Ko

31 July ko Bank of Japan ne short-term government bonds par rate 0% se barhakar 0.25% kar diya. (Yeh us hike ke baad aya jo March mein hui thi, jab bank ne pehli dafa 17 saalon mein rate -0.1% se barhaya tha.) Yeh zahiri tor par choti si tabdeeli ne ek silsila shuru kar diya, jo aakhir kar Bitcoin (BTC $55,514) aur Ethereum (ETH $2,500) ki qeemat mein taqreeban 18% aur 26% ki girawat ka sabab bana.

Is se traditional markets bhi bura asar lein, jisme S&P 500 — jo ke US stocks ka aik index hai — us din 5% se zyada gir gaya.

Japan ke rate hike se zyada asar uske baad ke events ne dala: forex markets mein yen ki qeemat mein zabardast izafa. (Currency aksar tab qeemat mein izafa karti hai jab domestic interest rates barhte hain.) 31 July ke baad, USD/JPY exchange rate 153 yen per dollar se girkar 145 par aa gaya. Achaanak se, yen-denominated loans bohot mehngay ho gaye.

Chahe margin calls ke waja se ya general caution ke tor par, traders ne billionon dollars ke positions dump karna shuru kar diya. Jump Trading ka $370 million se zyada ETH ko 24 July se 4 August tak bechna ne stir paida kiya, lekin unhone downturn trigger nahi kiya. Zyada se zyada, Jump ne us selloff ko amplify kiya jo waise bhi ek historic selloff banne ja raha tha.

USD/JPY pair pichle paanch hafton se gir raha hai. Marlin oscillator ab upwards turn lena shuru kar raha hai, magar qeemat ab bhi 140.27 ke target level tak pohanch sakti hai, jo ke last December ka low hai aur lagbhag 61.8% corrective level ke barabar hai. Daily chart par, qeemat ne 480 pips girne ke baad bounce back kiya. Pair ne din 233 pips ke girawat par close kiya. Aaj, qeemat ki upper shadow 146.50 ke target resistance tak pohanch gayi, is tarah kal ki movement ka range complete ho gaya.




Ab qeemat asaani se 140.26 tak ja sakti hai, jahaan se yeh aik correction mein dakhil hogi, jo ke 144.30-145.08 ke range mein wapas aayegi. 4-hour chart par, Marlin oscillator oversold zone se bahar aa gaya hai. Qeemat ab 144.30-145.08 ke range mein settle ho rahi hai, jiske baad yeh decline dobara shuru kar sakti hai. Hum qeemat ko 140.27 ke target level par dekh rahe hain, jiske baad aik corrective return ho sakta hai, Marlin oscillator se milne ke liye.

Dollar/Yen Foreign Exchange ka Technical Analysis

Japanese yen ne apni tez gains ko jaari rakha, aur dollar ke muqablay mein 141.68 yen tak pohanch gaya, jo ke January 2024 se ab tak ka sabse ooncha level hai. Yeh izafa is umeed par ho raha hai ke Bank of Japan agle kuch mahinon mein interest rates ko mazeed barha sakta hai, jabke US Federal Reserve ke rates mein mazeed cut karne ki umeed hai. Yeh tawaqoaat us waqt samne aayi jab ek kamzor jobs report ne United States mein mandi ka dar paida kiya, jisne markets ko September mein Fed ke taraf se 50 basis point ka bara rate cut price karne par majboor kiya.

Isi dauran, Bank of Japan ne apna interest rate pichle hafte 0.25% tak barhaya aur yeh bhi ishara diya ke agar maeshat mazboot rehti hai to woh mazeed rate barhane ke liye tayar hai. Financial markets is fiscal year, jo March 2025 mein khatam hoga, mein do mazeed rate hikes ka intezar kar rahe hain, jisme agla izafa December mein expected hai. Central bank ne apne mahana bond purchases ko agle do saalon mein aadha karne ka plan bhi announce kiya.

Doosri taraf, data ne yeh dikhaya ke Japanese authorities ne July mein apni currency ko support karne ke liye 5.53 trillion yen kharch kiye.

Benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond ka yield 0.8% se neeche gir gaya, jo ke char mahinon ka lowest level hai. Yeh US bond yields ke girne ke saath track ho raha tha, jabke weak US jobs data ne recession ke khauf ko barhawa diya aur Federal Reserve ke taraf se mazeed aggressive rate cuts ki bet lagayi gayi. Japanese government bond yields par safe-haven buying ka asar bhi para, jab global stock selloff aur yen carry trade ka jaldi unwind hua.

Iske ilawa, Bank of Japan ke bond purchases ko kam karne ke plans market expectations par poora nahi utare. BOJ ne pichle hafte kaha ke woh 2026 ke pehle quarter mein apne mahana bond purchases ko takreeban 3 trillion yen mahina kar dega. Yeh har quarter mein lagbhag 400 billion yen ki cut hogi, jo ke market ki lagbhag 1 trillion yen per quarter ki expectations se kaafi kam hai.

Magar, Bank of Japan ne pichle hafte interest rates ko 0.25% tak barhaya aur yeh ishara diya ke agar maeshat mazboot rehti hai to woh rates ko mazeed barhane ke liye tayar hai.




Aaj ke liye USD/JPY ka Forecast:

Daily chart par neeche di gayi performance ke mutabiq, USD/JPY price mein nuqsan kafi zyada aur tez tha, jo ke technical indicators ko strong oversold levels tak le gaya. Agar selling 140.00 ke support level tak jaari rehti hai, to main risk ke baghair USD/JPY ko khareedne ka sochoonga. Dosri taraf, jaisa ke pehle mention kiya gaya, 150.65 ka resistance level bulls ke liye control wapas hasil karne ke liye ahem hoga. Currency pair central banks ke mustaqbil ke policies aur investors ki risk lene ki bhook se mutasir hota rahega.

USD/JPY/H4

USD/JPY: US Dollar - Japanese Yen

USD/JPY ke currency pair ka technical outlook ye zahir karta hai ke ye southern trend ko jari rakhega, jese ke TMA (Triangular Moving Average) channel indicator ne wazeh tor par dikhaya hai. Zigzag indicator aur doosray indicators, jaise ke Laguerre aur RSI, jo ke overbought zone mein hain, ye downward movement ko aur zyada support kar rahe hain, aur short selling opportunities ki potential ko indicate karte hain.

Iss waqt bears bohot strong aur active hain, aur meri planning hai ke open position ko close kar doon jab ye -23.6% Fibonacci target, jo ke 144.694 price level par hai, tak pohanch jaye. Risk ko mitigate karne ke liye, mein order ko breakeven par move kar doonga jese hi ye positive territory mein enter karega. Ye approach ensure karti hai ke mein bearish momentum ka faida uthaoon, aur saath hi potential reversals se apne aap ko bacha sakoon.




USDJPY ka price tag US labor market ke data ke release hone ke baad neeche chala gaya. Hello, Dmitry, profit ka bag tayyar hai. Magar mujhe lagta hai ke pair ka price tag kisi maqam par ruk jayega, aur Japanese yen vertically zyada strong nahi ho sakti. Phir sab kuch settle ho jayega. Kabhi flat hoga, kabhi north, kabhi south. Phir bhi, hum American dollar ko likhne se nahi chhor sakte. Agle Fed meeting tak abhi poora ek mahina hai aur iss waqt mein pair ka price tag kaafi grow kar sakta hai (aakhir, kisi ne abhi tak dollar ke growth ko cancel nahi kiya). Haan, aaj ke data ke baad (jo ke ministries ne pichli manzar mein elections se pehle rate ko kam karne ke liye draw up kiya), ye maloom nahi ke kya hoga. American officials sab kuch jhoot kar rahe hain. Sab kuch elections aur Democratic Party ke candidate ki jeet ke liye ho raha hai. Magar voters American fund ke girne ko shayad maaf na karain. Apni taraf se, maine socha ke geisha se thoda break le loon, mere paas uske baghair bhi kafi headaches hain. Dekhte hain aage kya hota hai.

USD/JPY Analysis

Hum sab jaante hain ke USD/JPY kafi arse se neeche ja raha hai. Agar isey ek bara timeframe, jaise ke daily, mein dekha jaye to girawat bohot tez hai. Guzishta Monday ko, jabke market already oversold thi, USD/JPY phir bhi apni girawat ko mazeed gehra karne mein kamyab raha. Ye girawat 146.23 se shuru hui aur 142.17 tak chali gayi. Ab thoda behter lag raha hai kyunke USD/JPY ka movement dobara upar ki taraf badh raha hai. Ye izafa tab shuru hua jab candle demand area mein 142.07 ke price par pohanch gayi thi.

Jo indicator tum istamal kar rahe ho, wo yeh bata raha hai ke USD/JPY ke upar jane ka chance hai kyunke MACD ne upar ki taraf point karna shuru kar diya hai. Iske ilawa, dono MA lines bhi almost ek doosre ko intersect kar rahi hain. Aaj mein bhi yeh predict karta hoon ke USD/JPY upar jaye ga kyunke jo Ichimoku indicator mein use kar raha hoon us mein lines ek doosre ko intersect kar chuki hain. Ab candle ka position Tenkan Sen aur Kijun Sen lines ke upar hai, jo yeh matlab hai ke trend ab bullish ki taraf move karna shuru ho gaya hai. Isliye, mein tumhain recommend karta hoon ke agar tum iss pair mein trade kar rahe ho to sirf buy positions open karne par focus karo. Tum apna take profit target resistance par 150.77 ke price par rakh sakte ho aur stop loss support par 141.55 ke price par rakh sakte ho.





Agar aisa hai, to USD/JPY buy trade ka option foran kiya ja sakta hai kyunke price ne abhi correction karte hue thodi girawat dikhayi hai. Interesting baat ye hai ke H1 mein ek valid momentum buy candlestick form ho chuki hai, isliye price aam tor par MA5/MA10 Low ke lowest average area ki taraf retrace karegi, is se pehle ke wo phir se upar ki taraf jaye. Lekin, ye retracement mazeed gehra ho sakta hai aur blue support 143.75 ya Middle Bollingerbands area tak ja sakta hai kyunke seller ka pressure abhi bhi kaafi zyada hai. Jab tak price support 141.76 ke upar rehti hai, meri raaye mein, buying karna worth trying hai aur profit target resistance area 149.00 mein rakhna chahiye.

Mubarak ho sab ko! Is trading week mein Japanese yen ke sath itni interesting situation develop hui ke humein situation samajhne ke liye weekly period par switch karna pada. Baat yeh hai ke Bank of Japan ne interest rate ko 0.25 tak barha diya hai, jis se national currency mein kaafi mazbooti aayi hai, jabke dollar ke mukable mein hum dekhte hain ke price gir rahi hai. Filhaal, hum is saal ke minimum level ke qareeb hain, jo ke 143.44 par hai, halan ke globally USDJPY currency pair steadily grow kar raha hai aur is saal toh all-time high bhi dekhne ko mila.

Mujhe lagta hai ke yeh jo halat hai, yeh kaafi emotional hai, aur jab market thoda calm ho jayega, toh zyadatar chances hain ke price apni positions gradually wapas lena shuru kar de. Is saal ka minimum level ek qareebi reversal ka point lagta hai, lekin yeh thoda aur neeche 140.27 ke level tak bhi ja sakta hai, lekin reversal qareeb hai kisi bhi hal mein.




Yeh baat bilkul theek hai ke USDJPY market mein jo price decline hua hai, woh bohot steady tha, aur isne un traders ke liye profit ka mauqa diya hai jinhone price ke upar hone ke waqt sell entry ki thi. Aaj ke price conditions ko dekh kar lagta hai ke price apne support area, jo ke 146,517 ke aas paas hai, mein dakhil ho gayi hai, lekin kyunke seller ka momentum abhi bhi strong hai, toh chances hain ke yeh easily break down ho jaye. Aane wale waqt mein trend ke mazeed girne ka possibility hai, jo ke lower support area, jo ke 140,326 ke aas paas hai, ko pursue kar sakta hai. Is liye, meri trading plan mein, mein abhi bhi sell entry opportunities par focus karunga. Aur sab se zaroori baat yeh hai ke hamesha money management ko maintain karo taake margin calls se bach sakein.

USD/JPY currency pair ke technical analysis se yeh zahir hota hai ke downtrend ka silsila jari rehne ka imkaan hai, jo ke Triangular Moving Average (TMA) channel indicator se wazeh hai. Zigzag indicator aur doosray technical tools jaise ke Laguerre aur Relative Strength Index (RSI), jo overbought zone mein hain, bhi iss southward movement ko support karte hain, aur yeh short-selling ke moqay ko highlight karte hain. Filhal market mein bearish sentiment haavi hai, aur analyst ka plan hai ke open position ko -23.6% Fibonacci support level par band kiya jaye, jo ke 144.694 ki price par hai. Risk ko kam karne ke liye, analyst stop-loss order ko breakeven level par shift kar dega, jese hi position profitable territory mein dakhil hogi. Yeh approach trader ko bearish momentum se faida uthane ka moqa deta hai, jab ke price reversals ke khatrey se bachane mein madad karta hai.Haal hi mein US labor market data ke jaari hone se USD/JPY ke price mein southward move dekha gaya hai. Yeh development trader Dmitry ke liye acha sabit hua hai, jo ab is bearish trend se faida utha raha hai. Lekin analyst ka yeh maanna hai ke Japanese yen zyada dair tak vertically strengthen nahi kar paayega, aur price aakhir kar stable ho sakti hai, jisse consolidation ya northward move ka imkaan hai. Halanki filhaal bearish sentiment haavi hai, analyst puri tarah se US dollar ko nazarandaz karne se mana karta hai. American currency apni resilience ke liye mashhoor hai aur kisi na kisi point par comeback kar sakti hai, chahe USD/JPY pair mein reversal ke zariye ya doosri currency pairs mein strength ke zariye. Analyst market conditions ko closely monitor karega aur trading strategy ko adjust karega taake kisi bhi potential opportunity ka faida utha sake.

Yeh yaad rakhna zaroori hai ke foreign exchange market mein trading apne sath inherent risks laati hai, aur investors ko hamesha thorough research, risk management strategies, aur professional guidance istemal karni chahiye pehle se kisi bhi investment decision ke.

Agle Federal Reserve meeting tak ek mahine ka arsa baqi hai, is waqt ke doran is currency pair ke price mein significant increase dekhne ka imkaan hai. Yeh is liye ke dollar ki strength ke peeche jo factors hain, jaise ke US economy ki zabardast performance aur Fed ki hawkish monetary policy stance, unmein kisi tarah ka fundamental change nahi aaya hai. Halanki recent economic data release ne kuch logon ko speculate karne par majboor kiya ke yeh government agencies ne upcoming elections se pehle zyada behtareen tasveer pesh karne ke liye manipulate kiya, lekin long-term trajectory of the dollar ab bhi bullish hai