𝐔𝐒𝐃/𝐉𝐏𝐘

Technical Analysis aur Market Insights for USD/JPY

Assalamu alaikum, fellow traders!

Current Market Overview

USD/JPY currency pair ki situation mein notable change aaya hai. Ab hum confident downtrend ko observe kar rahe hain, aur further decline ke liye ample room hai. Ye downward movement largely significant pullbacks ke bina hua hai.

Key Factors Influencing the Market:

Bank of Japan's Rate Hike: Bank of Japan ki interest rates mein recent increase Japanese yen ko support karta hai.

Negative Data from the US: Today's negative economic data from the United States ne dollar ko momentarily weaken kiya. Lekin dollar ne recovery shuru kar di hai, lekin ye immediately USD/JPY pair mein reflect nahi ho raha hai.

Market Complexity: Overall situation complex hai, aur main currently trading ko refrain kar raha hoon. Instead, main significant pullback ka wait kar raha hoon short positions ko consider karne ke liye.

Key Levels aur Potential Movements:

Resistance Levels:

Immediate Resistance: 149.75
Secondary Resistance: 149.60

Support Levels:

Immediate Support: 147.10

Trading Strategy aur Recommendations:

Short Positions:

Entry Point: 149.75 range mein price move hone par short positions mein entry consider karein.
Stop-Loss: Risk ko manage karne ke liye stop-loss ko slightly above 149.75 level par place karein.
Target: Price ko downward movement mein resume karne ke liye target karein.

Potential Pullback aur Continuation:

Entry Point: 149.60 range mein minor upward impulse hone par short positions consider ki ja sakti hain.
Continuation: Downtrend continue hone ka expectation hai.

Waiting for a Good Pullback:

155.50 ke level par price rise hone par main short positions open karne ka consider karoonga. Ye level better opportunity provide karega sell trades ko initiate karne ke liye.

Immediate Market Action:

147.10 se minor impulse ke baad, price ko decline continue karne ka expectation hai. Therefore, short positions primary strategy hai, jab tak price key resistance levels ke neeche rahe

Itne saalon mein, USD/JPY ki exchange rate mein notable reversal aaya hai, kyunki US Federal Reserve aur Bank of Japan ke beech divergence continue hai. Ye four consecutive weeks se decline kar raha hai aur 148.54 ke low par pahunch gaya hai, saal ke shuruat se 161.76 ke high se. Overall, USD/JPY rally ne hedge funds aur other speculators ko hurt kiya hai, jo Japanese yen ko sell karte rahe hain. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) ki data se dikha hai ki speculators March 2021 se yen par net short position hold kar rahe hain. In investors ne fortune kiya hai, kyunki Japanese yen 2020 ke high se 47% se zyada decline kiya hai. Ab, kuch investors apne positions ko close kar rahe hain, jab currency recover kar raha hai. Net short positions June mein -184,000 se gir kar last week 107,000 par pahunch gaye hain.

Dovish US Federal Reserve

USD/JPY pair primarily Federal Reserve aur Bank of Japan ke beech divergence ke wajah se gir gaya hai. Interest rate decision mein, bank ne US interest rate ko 5.25% aur 5.50% ke beech unchanged chor diya. Ye decision investors ko surprise nahi kiya, kyunki ye analysts ki expectations ke hisab se tha. Statement mein, bank ne indicate kiya hai ki ye ab dual mandate ke do aspects par focus kar raha hai: labor market aur inflation. Recent economic data se dikha hai ki ye numbers alag-alag directions mein move kar rahe hain. Inflation Fed ke 2.0% target ki taraf move kar raha hai, kyunki ye three consecutive months se decline kar raha hai. Dusri taraf, unemployment rate past few months mein continue decline kar raha hai.

Rate hike by the Bank of Japan

Federal Reserve aur Bank of Japan opposite directions mein move kar rahe hain. Interest rate decision mein, bank ne apne second increase ko 17 years mein decide kiya. Ye interest rates ko 0.25% raise kiya, kuch months ke baad 0.10% raise karne ke baad. More importantly, bank ne indicate kiya hai ki ye rates ko raise kar sakta hai, agar inflation stable rahe. Bank of Japan ki interest rate hikes central bank ki major foreign exchange interventions ke baad aaye hain, jo $22 billion se zyada ki thi, jab yen collapse kiya tha. Lekin, BOJ economy mein major slowdown ko cause kar sakta hai, jo already slowing signs dikha raha hai

USD/JPY currency pair ki technical analysis yeh dikhati hai ke downtrend ka silsila jari reh sakta hai, jo ke Triangular Moving Average (TMA) channel indicator se wazeh hota hai. Is southward movement ko Zigzag indicator aur Laguerre aur Relative Strength Index (RSI) jaise additional technical tools bhi support karte hain, jo ke overbought zone mein hain, aur short-selling ke moqe ka ishara dete hain. Market mein bearish sentiment ka bol-bala hai, aur analyst ka plan yeh hai ke -23.6% Fibonacci support level, jo ke 144.694 ke price par hai, par open position close kar deni chahiye. Risk ko kam karne ke liye, analyst stop-loss order ko breakeven level par le jayega jaise hi position profit mein chali jayegi. Yeh approach trader ko bearish momentum ka faida uthate hue potential price reversals se bachne mein madad dega US labor market data ki recent release ne USD/JPY ke price ko southward move karne par majboor kiya hai. Yeh development trader, Dmitry, ke liye khushi ka sabab hai, jo ke is bearish trend se profits enjoy kar raha hai. Magar analyst ka khayal hai ke Japanese yen itni dair tak vertically strengthen nahi kar payega, aur price eventually stabilize hoke consolidation ya shayad northward move kar sakti hai. Halankeh abhi market mein bearish sentiment hai, analyst warn karta hai ke US dollar ko mukammal taur par likhna ghalat hoga. American currency apni resilience ke liye mashhoor hai aur kisi waqt comeback kar sakti hai, chahe USD/JPY pair mein reversal se ya kisi aur currency pair mein strength se. Analyst market conditions ko closely monitor karega aur trading strategy ko accordingly adjust karega taake kisi bhi potential opportunities ka faida utha sake
Yeh note karna zaroori hai ke foreign exchange market mein trading ke andar inherent risks hote hain, aur investors ko hamesha thorough research karni chahiye, risk management strategies implement karni chahiye, aur professional guidance lena chahiye pehle ke kisi bhi investment decision ka. Federal Reserve ke agli meeting tak poora ek mahina baqi hai, is waqt currency pair ki price mein significant increase dekhne ko mil sakti hai. Yeh is liye ke dollar ki strength ke peeche jo factors hain, jaise ke US economy ka mazboot performance aur Fed ki hawkish monetary policy stance, ab tak fundamentally change nahi hue. Halankeh recent economic data release ke baare mein kuch log speculate kar rahe hain ke yeh government agencies ne manipulate kiya tha takay aane wale elections se pehle achi tasveer dikhayi ja

Aaj hum USD/JPY currency pair ke price movements ka tajziya karenge. Pair ka chart upward price trend ka ishara de raha hai, jo yeh darshata hai ke abhi bulls ke haath mein zyada power hai bears ke muqablay. Zigzag line bhi upar ki taraf hai, isliye long positions rakhna zyada munasib lagta hai. Auxiliary oscillators, MACD aur TNT bhi is tasdeeq karte hain ke buyers ke liye mawaafiq hai. Main is position ko tab tak barqarar rakhunga jab tak yeh 61.8% Fibonacci level par 152,299 tak nahi pohanchti. USD/JPY pair ke liye, main bechne ke jazbat rakhta hoon. Lekin, filhal seedha girna mushkil lag raha hai. Agar pair upar ki taraf correct karti hai, to main bechnay ke mauqe ki talash karunga. Mere pehle sales target 143.84 hai, aur doosra target 143.49 hai. Filhal main kharidne ka soch nahi raha. Pair ke paas girne ki jagah hai, jo ke shayad kuch waqt ke liye 140.19 tak jaa sakta hai. Main bechne ke liye ek behtareen entry point ki intezar kar raha hoon. Khaaskar, main 146.49 ki taraf dekhunga, jahan main ek sales ladder setup karunga.

Pichle hafte is pair ko becha gaya tha, aur weekly chart par yeh sideways movement kar raha hai. Main agle hafte ke liye pair ki movement ka tajziya technical analysis par karunga. Moving averages sell ka signal de rahe hain aur technical indicators bhi sell ke liye strongly suggest kar rahe hain, jo bearish trend ko agle hafte ke liye reinforce karte hain.

Aane wale key news releases ko bhi consider karna zaroori hai jo pair ko impact kar sakti hain. U.S. se aham news expected hai, jiska forecast negative hai. Yeh series of significant news U.S. se Thursday ko aayegi, aur outlook negative hi rahega.

Iske ilawa, Japan Friday ko crucial industrial production data release karega, jiska forecast optimistic hai. Is basis par, mujhe agle hafte bearish movement ki ummeed hai. Sales ka target 141.79 support level hoga, jabke potential buys resistance level 146.39 ke liye ho sakti hain. Overall, main ek predominantly bearish trend ki expectation rakh raha hoon, jo mere rough trading plan ka buniyad hai agle hafte ke liye.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Short-Term Bullishness Aur Long-Term Bearish Outlook
Is analysis mein hum USD/JPY currency pair ke technical aspects ko dekhte hain aur iska current market behavior aur potential future movements ko samajhte hain. Aaj ke latest data ke mutabiq, USD/JPY pair ek mixed technical landscape ko navigate kar raha hai, jahan short-term mein bullish trend aur long-term mein bearish outlook ka contrast dekhne ko mil raha hai.
Current Price Aur Moving Averages


Analysis ke waqt, USD/JPY pair 50-day moving average (MA50) ke upar trade kar raha hai lekin 200-day moving average (MA200) ke neeche hai. Ye setup short-term aur long-term trends ke darmiyan divergence ko show karta hai. MA50 ke upar hone ka matlab hai ke short-term mein upward momentum hai, jo bullish bias ko indicate karta hai. Lekin, price ka MA200 ke neeche hona broader bearish sentiment ko highlight karta hai, jo key resistance levels ke paas aate hi wapas dominance assert kar sakta hai.
Trend Analysis


USD/JPY pair ka MA50 ke upar hona short-term strength ko reflect karta hai. Iska matlab hai ke buyers filhal price ko upar le ja rahe hain. Lekin, traders ko caution rakhni chahiye jab price MA200 ke paas pohnchti hai. History mein, MA200 ek significant trend indicator hai; agar price is level ko break nahi karti, to ye broader downtrend ke resume hone ka signal ho sakta hai, aur sellers phir se dominance hasil kar sakte hain. In moving averages ka interaction bullish aur bearish forces ke beech ongoing battle ko highlight karta hai, isliye in levels ko closely monitor karna zaroori hai.
Support Aur Resistance Levels


USD/JPY pair ke next move ko determine karne ke liye key support aur resistance levels ko samajhna zaroori hai:
Support: Immediate support level MA50 ke aas-paas hone ki umeed hai. Agar price is level ke neeche girti hai, to ye short-term bullish scenario ko negate kar sakta hai aur further declines ke liye raasta bana sakta hai. Ye support level bulls ke liye ek critical line of defense hai aur iski weakening ko monitor karna zaroori hai.
Resistance: Upar ki taraf, resistance 148.50 se 149.00 range ke aas-paas expect kiya ja raha hai. Agar price in levels ko decisively break karti hai, to further buying opportunities ka signal mil sakta hai, jo higher resistance zones ko retest karne ki taraf le ja sakta hai. Lekin, agar price in levels ko surpass nahi karti, to ye reversal trigger kar sakta hai, long-term bearish outlook hota hai

USD/JPY currency pair ke technical aspects ko dekhte hain aur iska current market behavior aur potential future movements ko samajhte hain. Aaj ke latest data ke mutabiq, USD/JPY pair ek mixed technical landscape ko navigate kar raha hai, jahan short-term mein bullish trend aur long-term mein bearish outlook ka contrast dekhne ko mil raha hai.
Current Price Aur Moving Averages
Analysis ke waqt, USD/JPY pair 50-day moving average (MA50) ke upar trade kar raha hai lekin 200-day moving average (MA200) ke neeche hai. Ye setup short-term aur long-term trends ke darmiyan divergence ko show karta hai. MA50 ke upar hone ka matlab hai ke short-term mein upward momentum hai, jo bullish bias ko indicate karta hai. Lekin, price ka MA200 ke neeche hona broader bearish sentiment ko highlight karta hai, jo key resistance levels ke paas aate hi wapas dominance assert kar sakta hai.
Trend Analysis



USD/JPY pair ka MA50 ke upar hona short-term strength ko reflect karta hai. Iska matlab hai ke buyers filhal price ko upar le ja rahe hain. Lekin, traders ko caution rakhni chahiye jab price MA200 ke paas pohnchti hai. History mein, MA200 ek significant trend indicator hai; agar price is level ko break nahi karti, to ye broader downtrend ke resume hone ka signal ho sakta hai, aur sellers phir se dominance hasil kar sakte hain. In moving averages ka interaction bullish aur bearish forces ke beech ongoing battle ko highlight karta hai, isliye in levels ko closely monitor karna zaroori hai.
Support Aur Resistance Levels
Federal Reserve aur Bank of Japan opposite directions mein move kar rahe hain. Interest rate decision mein, bank ne apne second increase ko 17 years mein decide kiya. Ye interest rates ko 0.25% raise kiya, kuch months ke baad 0.10% raise karne ke baad. More importantly, bank ne indicate kiya hai ki ye rates ko raise kar sakta hai, agar inflation stable rahe. Bank of Japan ki interest rate hikes central bank ki major foreign exchange interventions ke baad aaye hain, jo $22 billion se zyada ki thi, jab yen collapse kiya tha. Lekin, BOJ economy mein major slowdown ko cause kar sakta hai, jo already slowing signs dikha raha hai

USD/JPY pair ke next move ko determine karne ke liye key support aur resistance levels ko samajhna zaroori hai:
Support: Immediate support level MA50 ke aas-paas hone ki umeed hai. Agar price is level ke neeche girti hai, to ye short-term bullish scenario ko negate kar sakta hai aur further declines ke liye raasta bana sakta hai. Ye support level bulls ke liye ek critical line of defense hai aur iski weakening ko monitor karna zaroori hai.
Resistance: Upar ki taraf, resistance 148.50 se 149.00 range ke aas-paas expect kiya ja raha hai. Agar price in levels ko decisively break karti hai, to further buying opportunities ka signal mil sakta hai, jo higher resistance zones ko retest karne ki taraf le ja sakta hai. Lekin, agar price in levels ko surpass nahi karti, to ye reversal trigger kar sakta hai, long-term bearish outlook hota hai

USD/JPY ki exchange rate mein notable reversal aaya hai, kyunki US Federal Reserve aur Bank of Japan ke beech divergence continue hai. Ye four consecutive weeks se decline kar raha hai aur 148.54 ke low par pahunch gaya hai, saal ke shuruat se 161.76 ke high se. Overall, USD/JPY rally ne hedge funds aur other speculators ko hurt kiya hai, jo Japanese yen ko sell karte rahe hain. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) ki data se dikha hai ki speculators March 2021 se yen par net short position hold kar rahe hain. In investors ne fortune kiya hai, kyunki Japanese yen 2020 ke high se 47% se zyada decline kiya hai. Ab, kuch investors apne positions ko close kar rahe hain, jab currency recover kar raha hai. Net short positions June mein -184,000 se gir kar last week 107,000 par pahunch gaye hain.

Dovish US Federal Reserve

USD/JPY pair primarily Federal Reserve aur Bank of Japan ke beech divergence ke wajah se gir gaya hai. Interest rate decision mein, bank ne US interest rate ko 5.25% aur 5.50% ke beech unchanged chor diya. Ye decision investors ko surprise nahi kiya, kyunki ye analysts ki expectations ke hisab se tha. Statement mein, bank ne indicate kiya hai ki ye ab dual mandate ke do aspects par focus kar raha hai: labor market aur inflation. Recent economic data se dikha hai ki ye numbers alag-alag directions mein move kar rahe hain. Inflation Fed ke 2.0% target ki taraf move kar raha hai, kyunki ye three consecutive months se decline kar raha hai. Dusri taraf, unemployment rate past few months mein continue decline kar raha hai.

Rate hike by the Bank of Japan

Federal Reserve aur Bank of Japan opposite directions mein move kar rahe hain. Interest rate decision mein, bank ne apne second increase ko 17 years mein decide kiya. Ye interest rates ko 0.25% raise kiya, kuch months ke baad 0.10% raise karne ke baad. More importantly, bank ne indicate kiya hai ki ye rates ko raise kar sakta hai, agar inflation stable rahe. Bank of Japan ki interest rate hikes central bank ki major foreign exchange interventions ke baad aaye hain, jo $22 billion se zyada ki thi, jab yen collapse kiya tha. Lekin, BOJ economy mein major slowdown ko cause kar sakta hai, jo already slowing signs dikha raha hai

Dear Forum Fellows and Visitors from Around the World,

Aaj kaise hain aap sab? Umeed hai aap sab khair makdam aur trading activities ka maza le rahe hain. Aaj, main USD/JPY currency pair ka analysis share karna chahunga.

Pichle kuch trading dinon mein, USD/JPY pair ne apne overall behavior mein zyada tabdeeli nahi dikhayi hai, jo ke technical analysis ke mutabiq hai. Ye pair ek well-defined range mein trade kar raha hai, jo ke consolidation ka period reflect karta hai, trend direction ki wazeh kami nahi. Ye range-bound movement yeh suggest karti hai ke market participants abhi bhi wait-and-see mode mein hain, aur shayad future economic data ya central bank signals ka intezar kar rahe hain.

Agar hum attached USD/JPY chart par nazar dalain, to kai technical indicators nazar aate hain. Sabse pehle, pair key support aur resistance levels ke aas-paas hover kar raha hai, na to bulls aur na hi bears ko decisive advantage mila hai. Ye balance of power price ko relatively stable rakhta hai, lekin ye bhi indicate karta hai ke ek potential breakout ho sakta hai jab ek catalyst saamne aayega.

Moving averages, khaaskar 50-day aur 200-day, filhal flat hain ya sirf slight inclines dikhate hain, jo ke strong directional bias ki kami ko confirm karta hai. RSI (Relative Strength Index) neutral zone mein hai, 50 mark ke aas-paas hover kar raha hai, jo ke typically dono directions mein momentum ki kami ko suggest karta hai. Ye neutral RSI pair ke overall range-bound nature ke sath align karta hai, jo ke traders ki undecided state ko reflect karta hai.

Iske ilawa, MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator bhi indecision ka similar picture dikhata hai, jahan MACD line aur signal line closely intertwined hain, jo buyers aur sellers ke beech ongoing tug-of-war ko reflect karta hai.

Fundamental perspective se, market ki indecision ko United States aur Japan se mixed economic signals ke zariye samjha ja sakta hai. Jab ke U.S. Federal Reserve ne interest rates par hawkish stance maintain kiya hai, jo potential further tightening ka signal hai, Bank of Japan apni ultra-loose monetary policy par committed hai. Monetary policies ke beech ye divergence USD/JPY pair par push-pull effect create karta hai, jo ke clear trend establish karne se rok raha hai.

In conclusion, USD/JPY pair filhal consolidation phase mein hai, aur pichle kuch dino se direction mein koi significant change nahi aya. Traders ko upcoming economic data releases aur central bank communications ko closely monitor karna chahiye, kyunki ye next significant move ke liye zaroori impetus provide kar sakti hain. Tab tak, ye prudent rahega ke ek wait-and-see approach adopt ki jaye, aur chart mein highlighted key technical levels par nazar rakhi jaye.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Short-Term Bullishness Aur Long-Term Bearish Outlook
Is analysis mein hum USD/JPY currency pair ke technical aspects ko dekhte hain aur iska current market behavior aur potential future movements ko samajhte hain. Aaj ke latest data ke mutabiq, USD/JPY pair ek mixed technical landscape ko navigate kar raha hai, jahan short-term mein bullish trend aur long-term mein bearish outlook ka contrast dekhne ko mil raha hai.
Current Price Aur Moving Averages


Analysis ke waqt, USD/JPY pair 50-day moving average (MA50) ke upar trade kar raha hai lekin 200-day moving average (MA200) ke neeche hai. Ye setup short-term aur long-term trends ke darmiyan divergence ko show karta hai. MA50 ke upar hone ka matlab hai ke short-term mein upward momentum hai, jo bullish bias ko indicate karta hai. Lekin, price ka MA200 ke neeche hona broader bearish sentiment ko highlight karta hai, jo key resistance levels ke paas aate hi wapas dominance assert kar sakta hai.
Trend Analysis


USD/JPY pair ka MA50 ke upar hona short-term strength ko reflect karta hai. Iska matlab hai ke buyers filhal price ko upar le ja rahe hain. Lekin, traders ko caution rakhni chahiye jab price MA200 ke paas pohnchti hai. History mein, MA200 ek significant trend indicator hai; agar price is level ko break nahi karti, to ye broader downtrend ke resume hone ka signal ho sakta hai, aur sellers phir se dominance hasil kar sakte hain. In moving averages ka interaction bullish aur bearish forces ke beech ongoing battle ko highlight karta hai, isliye in levels ko closely monitor karna zaroori hai.
Support Aur Resistance Levels


USD/JPY pair ke next move ko determine karne ke liye key support aur resistance levels ko samajhna zaroori hai:
Support: Immediate support level MA50 ke aas-paas hone ki umeed hai. Agar price is level ke neeche girti hai, to ye short-term bullish scenario ko negate kar sakta hai aur further declines ke liye raasta bana sakta hai. Ye support level bulls ke liye ek critical line of defense hai aur iski weakening ko monitor karna zaroori hai.
Resistance: Upar ki taraf, resistance 148.50 se 149.00 range ke aas-paas expect kiya ja raha hai. Agar price in levels ko decisively break karti hai, to further buying opportunities ka signal mil sakta hai, jo higher resistance zones ko retest karne ki taraf le ja sakta hai. Lekin, agar price in levels ko surpass nahi karti, to ye reversal trigger kar sakta hai, long-term bearish outlook ko reaffirm karte hue.
Technical Indicators


Relative Strength Index (RSI) ek aur key indicator hai jo consider karna zaroori hai. Agar RSI 50 ke upar hai, to ye bullish momentum ko confirm karta hai, aur further gains ke case ko support karta hai. Lekin, agar RSI overbought territory (70 ke upar) mein chala jata hai, to ye indicate kar sakta hai ke pair correction ke liye tayar hai, kyunki bullish momentum overextended ho sakta hai.
Trading Volume


Volume analysis price movements ko additional context provide karta hai. Agar upward move ke dauran trading volume increase ho raha hai, to ye current trend ki strength ko confirm karta hai, jo buyers ke confidence ko indicate karta hai. Conversely, agar volume decrease ho raha hai, to ye upward momentum ke weakening ko indicate kar sakta hai, jo reversal ka signal ho sakta hai.
Conclusion


Summary ke tor par, USD/JPY pair filhal short-term bullish trend show kar raha hai, jo MA50 ke upar position se driven hai. Lekin, long-term bearish outlook jo MA200 ke neeche price hone se indicate hota hai, ko overlook nahi kiya ja sakta. Traders ko key support aur resistance levels, RSI, aur trading volume ko closely monitor karna chahiye taake ongoing trend ki strength ko gauge kiya ja sake aur potential reversals ko anticipate kiya ja sake. Ye mixed technical landscape suggest karta hai ke gains ke opportunities hain, lekin caution zaroori hai, khaaskar jab pair significant resistance levels ke kareeb ho.

Pair ki primary momentum H4 chart par abhi bhi upward hai, jo low 141.68 se start hoti hai. Lekin, Friday ke tezi se girne ke baad, yen buyers ki position nazuk hai. Agar dynamic support 143.59 ke aas paas aur ascending trend line fail ho jati hai, toh mumkin hai ke yeh sirf waqt ki baat ho ki pair apne recent lows ko dobara visit kare. Lekin, agar support hold karta hai aur dollar-yen pair wapas bounce back karta hai, toh yeh 147.25 ke resistance ki taraf wapas upward movement kar sakta hai, jahan se mazeed declines bhi ho sakte hain. Primary resistance 148.22 par hai, aur agar USD/JPY is line ke upar move karta hai, toh yeh apni ascent ko initial impulse zone ke targets 152.24 aur 154.72 tak barhata rahega. Dollar-yen ka outlook uncertain hai, aur dekhna hoga ke market 143.59 support par Monday ko kaise react karta hai. USD/JPY ki price ne four-hour Fibonacci retracement par 38.1% resistance se reverse karte hue 14.5% support level tak gir gayi thi. Yeh level do martaba hit hua, pehle hafte ke shuru mein aur phir Friday ko, aur dono martaba is ke neechay close kiya.

Aaj hum USD/JPY currency pair ke price movements ka tajziya karenge. Pair ka chart upward price trend ko suggest karta hai, jo yeh batata hai ke bulls abhi bears par haavi hain. Zigzag line bhi upward hai, jis se long positions sabse munasib strategy lagti hai. Auxiliary oscillators, MACD aur TNT bhi isko confirm karte hain kyun ke yeh buyers ke liye favorable position par hain. Main plan kar raha hoon position ko 61.8% Fibonacci level par 152,299 tak hold karne ka. USD/JPY pair ke liye, main continued sales par ghour kar raha hoon. Lekin, current levels se direct drop mumkin nahi lagta. Agar pair upward correct karta hai, toh main selling opportunity dhundunga. Meri pehli sales target 143.84 hai, jise secondary target 143.49 par follow karegi. Abhi ke liye, main buying ko consider nahi kar raha hoon. Pair ke paas abhi mazeed girne ki gunjaish hai, jo ke mumkin hai 140.19 ko target kare, lekin yeh level thodi dair ke liye ho sakta hai. Main ek munasib entry point ka intezaar kar raha hoon taake sell kar sako. Khaas tor par, main 146.49 ki taraf move par nazar rakhunga, jahan par main ek sales ladder set up karunga.

Humari behas mein hum USDJPY currency pair ke price changes ka tajziya karenge. USDJPY pair ke liye, daily chart aur H4 time frame par aik delayed shift yeh indicate karta hai ke decline abhi bhi jaari hai. Tamam nishaniyan yeh batati hain ke yeh downward trend abhi bhi jaari rehne ke imkaanaat hain, lekin iska exact endpoint market ki forces par depend karega. Humne ab tak H4 aur hourly time frames par moving averages ke sell signal ke base par decline potential ko poori tarah utilize nahi kiya. Purple bar H4 signal ke potential ko 143.294 ko target karte hue highlight karti hai, jabke blue bar hourly time frame ke aim ko 143.903 par point karta hai. Jaise ke Friday ko dekha gaya, H1 targets sirf 13 points se door thay—jo ke itne volatile instrument ke liye aik significant gap hai—lehaza hourly signal ko dismiss karna option nahi hai. 145.211-145.648 ke aas paas pullback se sell position enter karne ka mauqa mil sakta hai. Is scenario mein, stop-loss level 146.519 se upar hona chahiye.

Chart par, H1 time frame operationally viable lagta hai. Trades pending ya market orders ka istemal kar sakti hain, lekin ek munasib ratio ko choose karna zaroori hai. Lekin, market aam tor par 1:1 ratio deta hai, jo ke 145.211 level tak pullback ka sabab ban sakta hai. Is scheme mein, stop-loss ko 146.519 mark ke peechay hona chahiye. Yeh salah di jati hai ke 143.903 level ko target karte hue sales ka aim karein. Is level ko exceed karna aur H4 goals ke qareeb pohanchna stop-loss ko higher targets ke muqablay mein misalign kar sakta hai. USDJPY pair mein continued decline ki likelihood ehm hai, kyunke 4-hour chart dikha raha hai ke pair abhi bhi downtrend mein hai. Price Ichimoku cloud ke neeche baithi hui hai, jo ke ongoing downward momentum ko signal kar rahi hai, aur Stochastic indicator bhi bearish ki taraf point kar raha hai. Pair ne apne bearish trajectory ko pichle session mein continue kiya, jo ab second support level ke neeche consolidate ho raha hai, aur ab 144.34 par trade kar raha hai. Mujhe ummeed hai ke aaj mazeed decline hoga, jahan 142.68 support level ko break karna ek nai downward wave ko shuru kar sakta hai, jo ke 139.18 support line se neeche move karega.

Japanese yen ne doosre musalsal din ke liye apni strength barqaraar rakhte hue US dollar ko outperform kiya, jo ke aksar Bank of Japan (BOJ) aur Federal Reserve (Fed) ki mukhtalif monetary policy stances ki wajah se tha. BOJ ke Governor Kazuo Ueda ke hawkish comments aur Fed Chair Jerome Powell ke dovish tone ne yen ki appreciation ke liye ek munasib mahal banaya. Ueda ke remarks ne, jo ke Friday ko aik parliamentary session ke dauran aaye, yeh ishara diya ke aane wale waqt mein mazeed interest rate hikes ho sakte hain agar economic outlook BOJ ke projections ke mutabiq raha. Iske ilawa, Japan ke national consumer price index (CPI) inflation ka February ke baad se apne sabse buland satah par barqaraar rehna bhi central bank ki aggressive monetary policy stance ko reinforce karta hai. Yeh hawkish outlook Fed ke ziyada ehtiyaati rawaiye se khasa mukhtalif tha. Powell ki Jackson Hole symposium mein ki gayi takreer ne policy adjustments ke liye tayyari ka ishara diya, jisse yeh lagta hai ke rate cut mumkin hai. Lekin, Fed Chair ke remarks mein rate cuts ke waqt aur magnitude ke hawale se specificity ki kami ne market participants ko unke comments ko dovish samajhne par majboor kiya. Iska natija yeh nikla ke US dollar kamzor hua, jo ke September mein rate cut ki barhti hui expectations ko reflect karta hai. CME FedWatch tool ne yeh dikhaya ke market participants Fed ki September meeting mein kam az kam 25 basis points ka rate cut price kar rahe hain. In expectations ke shift ne mazeed yen ki US dollar ke muqable mein qeemat barhane mein madad ki.

USD/JPY pair Friday ko 143.90 par trade kar rahi thi. Daily chart ke technical analysis ne bearish bias ko indicate kiya, jahan pair ek downtrend line ke neeche trade kar raha tha. Lekin, 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) abhi bhi 30 level se thora upar tha, jo yeh suggest karta hai ke downtrend jaari reh sakta hai. Mumkin price movements ke hawale se, USD/JPY pair ke liye ye tawaqqa ki ja rahi thi ke woh August 5 ko record ki gayi saat mahinay ki low, 141.69 ke kareeb support dhoondhega. Upar ki taraf, pair ke liye psychological level 145.00 ke kareeb downtrend line par resistance ka saamna mumkin tha, jiske baad nine-day exponential moving average (EMA) 145.74 par hai. Agar 9-day EMA ke upar break hota hai, toh yeh ek potential reversal ka signal de sakta hai aur 154.50 ke resistance zone ki taraf wapas aane ka raasta khol sakta hai.

USD/JPY H4 chart
Market off days aur Monday bonus update ke liye sir ka shukriya.

Ooper diye gaye technical analysis ke reference ko dekhte hue, yeh wazeh hota hai ke USDJPY currency pair ke liye trading plan mein sell option ko consider karna chahiye. Aur sirf technical analysis hi nahi, humein aaj ki release hui economic news par bhi nazar rakhni hogi, kyunke yeh bohat zaroori hai. Kyunke technical aur fundamental analysis ko samajh kar, aaj ki trading activities ko zyada aaraam se anjaam diya ja sakta hai. Market mein enter karne ke liye, behtar yeh hoga ke nearest resistance level ko test karne ke liye correction price ka intezaar kiya jaye, taake ek ideal market entry hasil ki ja sake. Pin bar candlestick patterns aur bearish engulfing candlestick patterns ko price ki kamzori ko support karne ke liye istemal kiya ja sakta hai. Selling trades shuru karne ke plan ke liye resistance level par 146.50 ke price par trade shuru ki jaye, aur stop loss ke liye hum minimum 1:1 set kar sakte hain, jabke profit target execution price se 200 points le sakta hai, ya phir hum aaj ke chalne wale market conditions ke mutabiq adjust kar lein. Yeh sab mila kar, USDJPY currency pair ke technical analysis ka overall natija yeh hai ke market conditions wazeh taur par bearish hain, aur sell trade option behtar hai, bas hummein nearest support level tak pahunchne ka khaas khayal rakhna hoga. Aur yaad rahe, chahe hum koi bhi trading technique istemal karein, humein apne emotions ko control karne aur us capital ke mutabiq trade karne ki zaroorat hai jo humne invest kiya hai.




Traders jo is trend se faida uthana chahte hain, unke liye 145.22 zone ek key area ke tor par saamne aata hai short positions kholne ke liye. Yeh level broader market trend ke saath align karta hai aur un logon ke liye ek strategic entry point offer karta hai jo ongoing bearish movement ke direction mein trade karna chahte hain. Lekin, yeh bhi yaad rakhna zaroori hai ke trend ke wapas downward course resume karne se pehle ek choti si upward correction bhi ho sakti hai. Aisi correction sellers ke liye ek aur bhi behtar entry point provide kar sakti hai jo market ke bearish side mein shamil hona chahte hain. Akhar mein, USD/JPY pair H4 timeframe par mazboot taur par bearish trend mein hai, jahan technical indicators aur market conditions mazeed declines ki taraf ishaara karte hain. Traders ko 145.22 zone par potential selling opportunities par nazar rakhni chahiye, jabke kisi bhi short-term corrections ka bhi khayal rakhna chahiye jo downtrend ke continue hone se pehle ho sakti hain. Overall sentiment bearish hai, aur jab tak price 100 SMA se neeche rehti hai, mazeed downside movement ke imkaanaat zyada hain.

Pichle kuch trading dinon mein, USD/JPY pair ne apne overall behavior mein zyada tabdeeli nahi dikhayi hai, jo ke technical analysis ke mutabiq hai. Ye pair ek well-defined range mein trade kar raha hai, jo ke consolidation ka period reflect karta hai, trend direction ki wazeh kami nahi. Ye range-bound movement yeh suggest karti hai ke market participants abhi bhi wait-and-see mode mein hain, aur shayad future economic data ya central bank signals ka intezar kar rahe hain.

Agar hum attached USD/JPY chart par nazar dalain, to kai technical indicators nazar aate hain. Sabse pehle, pair key support aur resistance levels ke aas-paas hover kar raha hai, na to bulls aur na hi bears ko decisive advantage mila hai. Ye balance of power price ko relatively stable rakhta hai, lekin ye bhi indicate karta hai ke ek potential breakout ho sakta hai jab ek catalyst saamne aayega.

Moving averages, especially 50-day aur 200-day, filhal flat hain ya sirf slight inclines dikhate hain, jo ke strong directional bias ki kami ko confirm karta hai. RSI (Relative Strength Index) neutral zone mein hai, 50 mark ke aas-paas hover kar raha hai, jo ke typically dono directions mein momentum ki kami ko suggest karta hai. Ye neutral RSI pair ke overall range-bound nature ke sath align karta hai, jo ke traders ki undecided state ko reflect karta hai.

Iske ilawa, MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator bhi indecision ka similar picture dikhata hai, jahan MACD line aur signal line closely intertwined hain, jo buyers aur sellers ke beech ongoing tug-of-war ko reflect karta hai.

chart par Japanese yen (USD/JPY) ke liye do key levels hain jahan se market apne local downtrend se rebound kar sakti hai. Ye levels hain 147.200 aur zyada important 146.300. 146.300 ka level weekly chart par bhi bohot ahmiyat rakhta hai, kyunki price ne is level ke neeche weekly closure kabhi nahi dekha hai. Agar is level par buying reaction kamzor hoti hai, to bearish trend continue kar sakta hai aur ye uncertain hai ke aage kahan jaayega. 147.200 ka level crucial hai kyunki ye ek psychological support point ko represent karta hai. Agar price is level ke aas-paas support show karti hai, to ye short-term downtrend ke khatam hone aur uptrend ki taraf shift hone ka signal ho sakta hai. Lekin agar price is level ke neeche girti hai aur stabilize nahi hoti, to ye bearish sentiment ko reinforce kar sakta hai aur further decline ka indication de sakta hai.

146.300 ka level aur bhi zyada critical hai kyunki ye weekly chart par ek strong support level hai. Agar price is level ke neeche girti hai aur wahan stabilize hoti hai, to ye market ke liye negative trend ka signal ho sakta hai. Weekly closure is level ke neeche hone par bohot significant hoga, kyunki iska matlab hai ke price ek poore hafte tak is level ke upar stabilize nahi hui. Ye bearish trend ki continuation aur further declines ka indication de sakta hai.

Agar buyers ki reactions 146.300 level par kamzor hoti hain, to bearish pressure barh sakta hai aur downward movement continue kar sakti hai. Isse market mein additional uncertainty aa sakti hai aur future movements kam predictable ho sakti hain. Isliye, if market is level ko break karta hai aur stabilize nahi hota, to traders ko cautious rehna chahiye aur apni strategies ko adjust karna chahiye.

Naye trading week ke shuruat par in levels par reactions ka monitoring zaroori hai. In reactions ko observe karne se traders ko current market conditions aur future trends ko samajhne mein madad milegi. Jab tak in key levels par clear reaction nahi milti, market direction uncertain