Gold

Agar US bond yield curve main girawat hoti hai, toh gold ki price apni upward momentum continue kar sakti hai, aur daily time frame par inside bar pattern ke mutabiq 2515 level tak pohanch sakti hai. Magar, is umeed barhoti harakat ko pehle flip area par resistance ka samna karna par sakta hai, jo ke symmetrical triangle pattern ke upper boundary ke sath align karta hai. Ye consolidation period ek descending channel pattern se highlight hota hai, jo dekhne layak hai.

Gold is waqt descending channel ke upper trendline se upar break karne ki koshish kar raha hai. Agar ye breakout successful hota hai, toh ek significant upward movement trigger ho sakta hai, jo ke mazid bullish trend ki shuruat hogi. Current price action ko dekhte hue, aisa breakout agle ek do dinon mein ho sakta hai, jo market momentum mein shift ka indication de sakta hai. Agar price is upper boundary se break karti hai, toh ye bullish trend ke strong continuation ka signal ho sakta hai, jo price ko mazid upar le ja sakta hai.

Resistance aur support zones ke darmiyan interplay, descending channel aur symmetrical triangle se potential breakout, yeh sab bohot ehmiyat rakhte hain yeh tay karne main ke gold apni upward trajectory sustain kare ga ya phir consolidation phase main wapas chalay jayegi. Market ke inherent volatility ke wajah se, disciplined approach to risk management zaroori hai. Traders ko flexible aur responsive rehna chahiye, taake wo changing market conditions ke sath adapt kar sakein.

Aane walay dinon mein significant price movements ke chances hain, jo gold market mein trade karne walon ke liye both opportunities aur challenges paish kar sakti hain.

a mein afsos ke sath inflation kam hone se Federal Reserve ke taraf se interest rates mein cut hone ki umeedein mazid mazboot ho gayi. Economic calendar ke natayij ke mutabiq... Guzishta hafta dikhaya ke America mein masarf ki qeematein June mein pehli baar chaar saalon mein gir gayi, jo ke Federal Reserve ke taraf se September mein interest rate cut hone ki umeedon ko mazid mazboot banata hai.Sarmayakaar ab Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell ke haaliye comments aur is hafte mazeed American economic reports ko dekh rahe hain taake mazeed rahnumayi hasil ho sake. Isi dauran, data ne ishara diya ke guzishta hafta Asia mein sone ki physical demand mein kami aayi jabke bartan ki unchi qeematon ne bazar mein ehtiyaat baratne ko badhawa diya.Sone ke bazaar ko mutasir karne wale asraat ke mutabiq... dollar ki qeemat safe haven demand ki buniyad par barh rahi hai. Electronic trading platforms ke mutabiq... dollar ki qeemat pehle 104.1 se neeche girne ke baad pehle martaba 104.2 tak barh gayi, jo ke June 3 ke baad se sabse kam satah tha. Weekend par Trump par hamlay ne keemati maaloomat ke mutabiq unke presidential election jeetne ke chances ko barhawa diya, jisne dollar ko upar dhakel diya.Trump ki policies, jaise ke sakht trade stance, lax regulations, aur proposed tax cuts, inflation ko barhawa dene ka imkaan hai. Isi dauran, traders ne September mein Federal Reserve ke taraf se US interest rates mein cut hone par 94% probability ke sath bet lagana jari rakha, jabke June ki masarf ki qeematein umeed se kam thi. Dollar board par mazid mazboot ho gaya, magar traders yen mein mazeed mumkina intervention ke bare mein hooshyar rahe.Dusri taraf, US 10-year Treasury bond yields Trump ke hamlay ki wajah se barh gayi. Trading ke mutabiq, 10-year US Treasury bond yields 4.2% se zyada barh gayi Monday ko, chaar mahine ke sabse kam satah se thori ubhaar lene ke baad, jabke US presidential candidate Donald Trump par hamlay ne unke November mein White House wapas jeetne ke chances ko barhawa diya. Markets ne Trump ki jeet ko Treasury bond yields ke liye bullish samjha kyunke unki policies ko tax cuts, immigration policy tightening aur import tariffs ke wajah se inflationary samjha gaya. Isi

mustaqil aur bazar ki uthal puthal k bio bharakaa sakta hai, halaan ke tajziya karnay walon ne note kiya ke hamlay ne Trump ke election jeetne ke chances ko barhawa diya hai.Isi dauran, sone ki qeemat ne jumme ko apna teesra musalsal haftawaar gain darj kiya, jabke America mein afsos ke sath inflation kam hone se Federal Reserve ke taraf se interest rates mein cut hone ki umeedein mazid mazboot ho gayi. Economic calendar ke natayij ke mutabiq... Guzishta hafta dikhaya ke America mein masarf ki qeematein June mein pehli baar chaar saalon mein gir gayi, jo ke Federal Reserve ke taraf se September mein interest rate cut hone ki umeedon ko mazid mazboot banata hai.Sarmayakaar ab Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell ke haaliye comments aur is hafte mazeed American economic reports ko dekh rahe hain taake mazeed rahnumayi hasil ho sake. Isi dauran, data ne ishara diya ke guzishta hafta Asia mein sone ki physical demand mein kami aayi jabke bartan ki unchi qeematon ne bazar mein ehtiyaat baratne ko badhawa diya.Sone ke bazaar ko mutasir karne wale asraat ke mutabiq... dollar ki qeemat safe haven demand ki buniyad par barh rahi hai. Electronic trading platforms ke mutabiq... dollar ki qeemat pehle 104.1 se neeche girne ke baad pehle martaba 104.2 tak barh gayi, jo ke June 3 ke baad se sabse kam satah tha. Weekend par Trump par hamlay ne keemati maaloomat keidentify karne ke liye use hota hai. Aam tor par, RSI agar 70 se upar ho to yeh overbought mana jata hai, aur agar 30 se neeche ho to yeh oversold mana jata hai.

Stochastic Oscillator: Stochastic indicator %K aur %D lines ko 34.26 aur 35.32 par show kar raha hai. Yeh bhi ek momentum indicator hai jo kisi particular closing price ko uski prices ke range ke sath compare karta hai ek certain period mein. Agar value 80 se upar ho, to yeh overbought conditions ko indicate karti hai, aur agar value 20 se neeche ho, to yeh oversold conditions ko indicate karti hai.

Volume: Chart ke neeche volume bars dikhai de rahi hain jo har 30-minute period mein transactions ya volume of trade ko indicate karti hain. Higher volume bars stronger price movements ko indicate kar sakti hain.

Sell Signal: Chart par ek sell order (#1130813621) note ki gayi hai jo suggest karti hai ke ek trade certain price point par initiate kiya gaya tha.

Indicators ke basis par:

economic reports ko dekh rahe hain taake mazeed rahnumayi hasil ho sake. Isi dauran, data ne ishara diya ke guzishta hafta Asia mein sone ki physical demand mein kami aayi jabke bartan ki unchi qeematon ne bazar mein ehtiyaat baratne ko badhawa diya.Sone ke bazaar ko mutasir karne wale asraat ke mutabiq... dollar ki qeemat safe haven demand ki buniyad par barh rahi hai. Electronic trading platforms ke mutabiq... dollar ki qeemat pehle 104.1 se neeche girne ke baad pehle martaba 104.2 tak barh gayi, jo ke June 3 ke baad se sabse kam satah tha. Weekend par Trump par hamlay ne keemati maaloomat ke mutabiq unke presidential election jeetne ke chances ko barhawa diya, jisne dollar ko upar dhakel diya.Trump ki policies, jaise ke sakht trade stance, lax regulations, aur proposed tax cuts, inflation ko barhawa dene ka imkaan hai. Isi dauran, traders ne September mein Federal Reserve ke taraf se US interest rates mein cut hone par 94% probability ke sath bet lagana jari rakha, jabke June ki masarf ki qeematein umeed se kam thi. Dollar board par mazid mazboot ho gaya, magar traders yeneconomic reports ko dekh rahe hain taake mazeed rahnumayi hasil ho sake. Isi dauran, data ne ishara diya ke guzishta hafta Asia mein sone ki physical demand mein kami aayi jabke bartan ki unchi qeematon ne bazar mein ehtiyaat baratne ko badhawa diya.Sone ke bazaar ko mutasir karne wale asraat ke mutabiq... dollar ki qeemat safe haven demand ki buniyad par barh rahi hai. Electronic trading platforms ke mutabiq... dollar ki qeemat pehle 104.1 se neeche girne ke baad pehle martaba 104.2 tak barh gayi, jo ke June 3 ke baad se sabse kam satah tha. Weekend par Trump par hamlay ne keemati maaloomat ke mutabiq unke presidential election jeetne ke chances ko barhawa diya, jisne dollar ko upar dhakel diya.Trump ki policies, jaise ke sakht trade stance, lax regulations, aur proposed tax cuts, inflation ko barhawa dene ka imkaan hai. Isi dauran, traders ne September mein Federal Reserve ke taraf se US interest rates mein cut hone par 94% probability ke sath bet lagana jari rakha, jabke June ki masarf ki qeematein umeed se kam thi. Dollar board par mazid mazboot ho gaya, magar traders yen

hai, lagta hai ke bullish trend ko maintain karna chahti hai. Price ne support (S1) 2382 tak correction ki, jo SMA 200 ke sath dynamic support bhi banata hai. Lekin, downward correction itni neeche nahi gayi aur price ne bounce kar ke weekend ke close prices ke around pivot point (PP) 2429 tak pahunch gayi. Agar price ka increase rally bullish trend direction ko follow karta hai, to price 2477 ke aas-paas ke nearest high prices ko test kar sakti hai aur resistance (R1) 2490 ki taraf bhi ja sakti hai.
Lekin, Gold ke price pattern ka structure abhi tak clear nahi hai kyunki 2477 ke high prices aur 2352 ke low prices dono hi pass nahi hue hain. Kehna ye hai ke price movement range narrow ho rahi hai, jo ek triangle pattern banane ki ijaazat deti hai. Awesome Oscillator (AO) indicator ne uptrend momentum show kiya hai lekin green histogram volume level 0 ke upar ya positive area mein itna wide nahi hai. Stochastic indicator ke parameters jo levels 50 aur 80 ke beech cross ho rahe hain, price increase rally ko support kar sakte hain.

Setup Entry Position:

Agar bullish trend direction aur price movements jo do Moving Average lines ke upar hain ko dekhte hue trade karna hai, to BUY moment ka intezar karein. Entry position ko place karne se pehle ensure karein ke closing prices pivot point (PP) 2429 ke upar ho ya high prices 2436 tak pahunchi ho. Stochastic indicator ke parameters jo level 50 ke aas-paas cross ho rahe hain, ko initial confirmation ke taur par use kiya ja sakta hai. AO indicator ka volume histogram jo level 0 ke upar ya positive area mein hai, uska continue widen hona zaroori hai taake uptrend momentum zyada valid ho. Take profit aur stop loss targets ko Risk: Reward ratio 1:1.5 ke hisaab se set karein, jisse stop loss 100 pips aur take profit 150 pips entry open position se hoga. Is tarah se maine journal update ka zikr kiya. Umeed hai ke trading plan jo humne banaya hai, agle haftay ke trading activities ke liye behtareen nateeje dega. Happy Weekend Sabko!

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close prices ke around pivot point (PP) 2429 tak pahunch gayi. Agar price ka increase rally bullish trend direction ko follow karta hai, to price 2477 ke aas-paas ke nearest high prices ko test kar sakti hai aur resistance (R1) 2490 ki taraf bhi ja sakti hai.
Lekin, Gold ke price pattern ka structure abhi tak clear nahi hai kyunki 2477 ke high prices aur 2352 ke low prices dono hi pass nahi hue hain. Kehna ye hai ke price movement range narrow ho rahi hai, jo ek triangle pattern banane ki ijaazat deti hai. Awesome Oscillator (AO) indicator ne uptrend momentum show kiya hai lekin green histogram ke taraf se interest rates mein cut hone ki umeedein mazid mazboot ho gayi. Economic calendar ke natayij ke mutabiq... Guzishta hafta dikhaya ke America mein masarf ki qeematein June mein pehli baar chaar saalon mein gir gayi, jo ke Federal Reserve ke taraf se September mein interest rate cut hone ki umeedon ko mazid mazboot banata hai.Sarmayakaar ab Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell ke haaliye comments aur is hafte mazeed American economic reports ko dekh rahe hain taake mazeed rahnumayi hasil ho sake. Isi dauran, data ne ishara diya ke guzishta hafta Asia mein sone ki physical demand mein kami aayi jabke bartan ki unchi qeematon ne bazar mein ehtiyaat baratne ko badhawa diya.Sone ke bazaar ko mutasir karne wale asraat ke mutabiq... dollar ki qeemat safe haven demand ki buniyad par barh rahi hai. Electronic trading platforms ke mutabiq... dollar ki qeemat pehle 104.1 se neeche girne

Lekin, downward correction itni neeche nahi gayi aur price ne bounce kar ke weekend ke close prices ke around pivot point (PP) 2429 tak pahunch gayi. Agar price ka increase rally bullish trend direction ko follow karta hai, to price 2477 ke aas-paas ke nearest high prices ko test kar sakti hai aur resistance (R1) 2490 ki taraf bhi ja sakti hai.
Lekin, Gold ke price pattern ka structure abhi tak clear nahi hai kyunki 2477 ke high prices aur 2352 ke low prices dono hi pass nahi hue hain. Kehna ye hai ke price movement range narrow ho rahi hai, jo ek triangle pattern banane ki ijaazat deti hai. Awesome Oscillator (AO) indicator ne uptrend momentum show kiya hai lekin green histogram volume level 0 ke upar ya positive area mein itna wide nahi hai. Stochastic indicator ke parameters jo levels 50 aur 80 ke beech cross ho rahe hain, price increase rally ko support kar sakte hain.
qeematein June mein pehli baar chaar saalon mein gir gayi, jo ke Federal Reserve ke taraf se September mein interest rate cut hone ki umeedon ko mazid mazboot banata hai.Sarmayakaar ab Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell ke haaliye comments aur is hafte mazeed American economic reports ko dekh rahe hain taake mazeed rahnumayi hasil ho sake. Isi dauran, data ne ishara diya ke guzishta hafta Asia mein sone ki physical demand mein kami aayi jabke bartan ki unchi qeematon ne bazar mein ehtiyaat baratne ko badhawa diya.Sone ke bazaar ko mutasir karne wale asraat ke mutabiq... dollar ki qeemat safe haven demand ki buniyad par barh rahi hai. Electronic trading platforms ke mutabiq... dollar ki qeemat pehle 104.1 se neeche girne ke baad pehle martaba 104.2 tak barh gayi, jo ke June 3 ke baad se sabse kam satah tha. Weekend par Trump par hamlay ne keemati maaloomat ke mutabiq unke presidential election jeetne ke chances ko barhawa diya, jisne dollar ko upar dhakel diya.Trump ki policies, jaise ke sakht trade stance, lax regulations, aur proposed tax cuts, inflation ko barhawa dene ka imkaan hai. Isi dauran, traders ne September mein Federal Reserve ke taraf se US interest rates mein cut hone par 94% probability ke sath bet lagana jari rakha, jabke June ki masarf ki qeematein umeed se kam thi. Dollar board par mazid mazboot ho gaya, magar traders yen mein mazeed mumkina intervention ke bare mein hooshyar rahe.Dusri taraf, US 10-year
Setup Entry Position:

Gold Ke Qeemat Mein Numaaya Izafa

Jumma ko, gold ki qeemat mein numaaya izafa dekhne ko mila, jo ke doosre din bhi apni musbat rawaiyat ko barkaraar rakhi. Yeh izafa is liye hai kyun ke andaza lagaya ja raha hai ke Federal Reserve apni September ki meeting mein interest rates ko kam karne par ghoor sakta hai. Is ke natijay mein US Treasury bond yields aur US dollar dono ne girawat dekhi, jo ke gold ke liye faida mand sabit hui. Trading day ke khatam hone par XAU/USD (gold aur US dollar ke darmiyan) ki keemat $2,507 thi.

ETFs Se Himayat

Gold ki qeemat ko himayat mil rahi hai kiyun ke gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) mein lagataar inflows dekhne ko mil rahe hain. July ka mahina doosri martaba aisa mahina raha jismein European aur Asian funds se zyada investment hui. Fed Chair Jerome Powell ki semi-annual testimony ke baad, ab investors ko US ke June ke inflation data ka intezaar hai, jo ke Thursday ko announce hoga. Iske ilawa, Initial Jobless Claims aur University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment ka data bhi gold ke mustaqbil par asar andaz hoga.

Fed Chair Ke Khayalat

Apni testimony ke doran US House of Representatives mein, Fed Chair Jerome Powell ne Senate committee mein ki gayi apni pehli guftagu ko dohraya. Unhone mehngai ko control karne mein ki gayi taraqqi ko tasleem kiya, lekin ehtiyat se kaam lene par zor dia, yeh kehte hue ke interest rates kam karna 2% inflation target hasil karne ki guarantee nahi hai.

Neeche Jaane Ka Khatra

Gold ki qeemat mein neeche jaane ka khatra hai agar price pattern ka neckline $2,279 se neeche chala gaya. Aise mein, ek conservative target $2,541 par set kiya ja sakta hai, jo ke pattern ki height se 0.618 downward ratio par mabni hai. Filhaal, short aur medium term mein trend sideways hai, jabke long-term mein gold ka outlook abhi bhi bullish hai.

Moving Average Aur Market Outlook

Is qeemti dhat ke liye ek aur risk yeh hai ke qeemat 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) tak wapas ja sakti hai, jo ke is waqt $2,431 par hai. Lekin, 27 June ko dekhi gayi downward trendline ke break hone se market ka outlook zyada bullish ho gaya hai.

Khulasa yeh hai ke gold ki qeemat mein izafa ho raha hai, jise Federal Reserve ki speculations aur ETF inflows jese factors support kar rahe hain. Magar ehtiyat ki zaroorat hai kyun ke neeche jaane ke reversals aur corrections market par asar dal sakte hain.

Chalo, gold ki price action analysis ka review karte hain. Pehle phase mein, 2424 support level ke neeche break hone ka intezaar tha, jo ab ho chuka hai. Dusre phase mein, is broken level ka test kiya gaya, aur ye test confirm bhi ho chuka hai. Lekin teesra phase, jo consolidation ka hota hai, abhi tak nahi hua. Jab consolidation hoga, to downward trend dobara shuru ho sakta hai, jisse resistance banegi. Jab tak consolidation nahi hoti, upward trend ka result decided nahi hai, aur yeh waqt hi batayega. Isliye, medium-term strategy abhi bhi relevant hai. Main consolidation ka intezaar kar raha hoon, jo ke ek aur upward move ka demand karti hai.

Hum ne pehle hourly time frame discuss kiya tha, lekin ab main daily chart par nazar daalna chahta hoon.

Daily time frame (D1) par, ek sideways wedge bana tha, jahan gold 76.43 par trade ho raha tha. 84.09 se rebound karne ke baad, resistance line se consistent decline shuru hua, jo gold ko gap ke saath ek strong downward movement mein le gaya. Channel ki lower limit unlikely nazar aayi, jo ke pichle haftay ke closing levels 74.09 se further decline ka indication de rahi thi. Yahan, price support line ko hit karegi, jahan main rebound aur upward correction expect kar raha hoon.

Medium-term perspective se dekha jaye, to continued decline indicate hoti hai, aur gold market open hote hi decrease karne ke chances hain. 2353.39 par, price minimum TF ko touch kar ke upward adjust hui. Price green zone ko cross karegi aur red zone ko support level ke taur par use karegi growth ke dauran. Is se MA resistance level break hoga, jahan red line 2390.74 par hai, aur price mid-trend level tak upar jayegi, jahan black line 2412.74 par hai. Price is mid-TF level (black line) ko bhi break kar sakti hai aur double top level tak upar move kar sakti hai, jo ke 2429.19 par hai.

H4 time frame par, gold bullish tendencies dikhata hai. 5 SMA aur 20 SMA ka cross 2385 level par hua, jabke 200 SMA 2372 level par hai. Yeh crossover gold ke liye ek strong upward trend ka signal hai. Pichle kuch dino ke market fluctuations ko bhool jayein; gold ne kal 2457 level tak move kiya, jaisa maine anticipate kiya tha. Aaj, gold ke 2470 level ko test karne ke chances hain. Ek strong bullish trend aane wala hai, jo is mahine gold ko 2500 level tak pohancha sakta hai. Yahan kuch strategies hain jo potential buying opportunities ke liye consider ki ja sakti hain:

2500 trade ka XAUUSD commodity ke liye khush aamdeed, jo 2024 ke liye ATH ko dobara tod raha hai. Yeh trading scheme is waqt kaafi potential rakhti hai aur saal ke aakhir tak chal sakti hai. Buyers ki complete dominance is situation ko sirf bullish pressure ke under hi banati hai. Ab, XAUUSD trading ke liye kuch scenarios hain, khaaskar USD ke fundamental aspects jo is trade ko bahut zyada influence karte hain. In considerations ko fundamentals aur technicals ke assumptions ke sath pura dhyan me rakhna zaroori hai.

Fundamental point of view se, interest rate cuts ki rumors currency ki value ko kam karengi. Zyada tar investors aur traders market conditions ke bare me clarity ka intezar karte hain. Yeh clear hai ke Fed dheere dheere interest rates ko kam kar raha hai aur USD assets ko risky aur avoid karne ki advise de raha hai jab tak US recession clearly nahi aata. Fed ka cycle 2001 ke incident ki tarah hai, jahan economic growth decline ki taraf jati hai aur USD ki value ko affect karti hai. Isliye, estimate yeh hai ke USD abhi bhi kamzor hone ka potential rakhta hai aur XAUUSD ko bhi strongly bullish bana sakta hai. Ek brief fundamental discussion ke taur pe, bearish opportunity abhi bhi ASIA session ke liye valid hai kyunki 2473.93 ka RBS level buyers ke entry ke liye sabse nazdeek hai.

Iske ilawa, H4 monitoring ke mutabiq, agar Asian session me koi naya ATH nahi hota, toh sellers short-term opportunities ka faida utha sakte hain. Short-term opportunities ke sath RVI already sell signal level par hai aur price crossing ka confirmation intazar kar raha hai. Fundamental perspective se, Fed ki rate cut ki rumors USD par additional pressure dalengi aur XAUUSD ko aur strengthen karengi. Lekin, market abhi bhi US economy ke recession ke certainty ka intezar kar rahi hai, jo gold trading me additional volatility add karegi.

Technically, aapka 2473.93 ka RBS level ka observation bilkul sahi hai. Yeh ek critical level hai jisko traders ko dhyan me rakhna chahiye, khaaskar agar Asian session me koi naya ATH nahi hota. Sellers ke liye short-term corrections ka faida uthane ka opportunity interesting strategy ho sakti hai, khaaskar jab RVI sell signal dikha raha hai.

mein pehli baar chaar saalon mein gir gayi, jo ke Federal Reserve ke taraf se September mein interest rate cut hone ki umeedon ko mazid mazboot banata hai.Sarmayakaar ab Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell ke haaliye comments aur is hafte mazeed American economic reports ko dekh rahe hain taake mazeed rahnumayi hasil ho sake. Isi dauran, data ne ishara diya ke guzishta hafta Asia mein sone ki physical demand mein kami aayi jabke bartan ki unchi qeematon ne bazar mein ehtiyaat baratne ko badhawa diya.Sone ke bazaar ko mutasir karne wale asraat ke mutabiq... dollar ki qeemat safe haven demand ki buniyad par barh rahi hai. Electronic trading platforms ke mutabiq... dollar ki qeemat pehle 104.1 se neeche girne ke baad pehle martaba 104.2 tak barh gayi, jo ke June 3 ke baad se sabse kam satah tha. Weekend par Trump par hamlay ne keemati maaloomat ke mutabiq unke presidential election jeetne ke chances ko barhawa diya, jisne dollar ko upar dhakel diya.Trump ki policies, jaise ke sakht trade stance, lax regulations, aur proposed tax cuts, inflation ko barhawa dene ka imkaan hai. Isi dauran, traders ne September mein Federal Reserve ke taraf se US interest rates mein cut hone par 94% probability ke sath bet lagana jari rakha, jabke June ki masarf ki qeematein umeed se kam thi. Dollar board par mazid mazboot ho gaya, magar traders yen mein mazeed mumkina intervention ke bare mein hooshyar rahe.Dusri taraf, US 10-year Treasury bond yields Trump ke hamlay ki wajah se barh gayi. Trading ke mutabiq, 10-year US Treasury bond yields 4.2% se zyada barh gayi Monday ko, chaar mahine ke sabse kam satah se thori mustaqil aur bazar ki uthal puthal ko bharakaa sakta hai, halaan ke tajziya karnay walon ne note kiya ke hamlay ne Trump ke election jeetne ke chances ko barhawa diya hai.Isi dauran, sone ki qeemat ne jumme ko apna teesra musalsal haftawaar gain darj kiya, jabke America mein afsos ke sath inflation kam hone se Federal Reserve ke taraf se interest rates mein cut hone ki umeedein mazid mazboot ho gayi. Economic calendar ke natayij ke mutabiq... Guzishta hafta dikhaya ke America mein masarf ki qeematein June mein pehli baar chaar saalon mein gir gayi, jo ke Federal Reserve ke taraf se September mein interest rate cut hone ki umeedon ko mazid mazboot banata hai.Sarmayakaar ab Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell ke haaliye comments aur is hafte mazeed American economic reports ko dekh rahe hain taake mazeed rahnumayi hasil ho sake. Isi dauran, data ne ishara diya ke guzishta hafta Asia mein sone ki physical demand mein kami aayi jabke bartan ki unchi qeematon ne bazar mein ehtiyaat baratne ko badhawa diya.Sone ke bazaar ko mutasir karne wale asraat ke mutabiq... dollar ki qeemat safe haven demand ki buniyad par barh rahi hai. Electronic trading platforms ke mutabiq... dollar ki qeemat pehle 104.1 se neeche girne ke baad pehle martaba 104.2 tak barh gayi, jo ke June 3 ke baad se sabse kam satah tha. Weekend par Trump par hamlay ne keemati maaloomat ke mutabiq unke presidential election jeetne ke chances ko barhawa diya, jisne dollar ko upar dhakel diya.Trump ki policies, jaise ke sakht trade stance, lax regulations, aur proposed tax cuts, inflation ko barhawa dene ka imkaan hai. Isi dauran, traders ne September mein Federal Reserve ke taraf se US interest rates mein cut hone par 94% probability ke sath bet lagana jari rakha, jabke June ki masarf ki qeematein umeed se kam thi. Dollar board par mazid mazboot ho gaya, magar traders yen mein mazeed mumkina intervention ke bare mein hooshyar rahe.Dusri taraf, US 10-year Treasury bond yields Trump ke hamlay ki wajah se barh gayi. Trading ke mutabiq, 10-year US Treasury bond yields 4.2% se zyada barh gayi Monday ko, chaar mahine ke sabse kam satah se thori ubhaar lene ke baad, jabke US presidential candidate Donald Trump par hamlay ne unke November mein White House wapas jeetne ke chances ko barhawa diya. Markets ne Trump ki jeet ko Treasury bond yields ke liye bullish samjha kyunke unki policies ko tax cuts, immigration policy tightening

bullish pressure ke under hi banati hai. Ab, XAUUSD trading ke liye kuch scenarios hain, khaaskar USD ke fundamental aspects jo is trade ko bahut zyada influence karte hain. In considerations ko fundamentals aur technicals ke assumptions ke sath pura dhyan me rakhna zaroori hai.

Fundamental point of view se, interest rate cuts ki rumors currency ki value ko kam karengi. Zyada tar investors aur traders market conditions ke bare me clarity ka intezar karte hain. Yeh clear hai ke Fed dheere dheere interest rates ko kam kar raha hai aur USD assets ko risky aur avoid karne ki advise de raha hai jab tak US recession clearly nahi aata. Fed ka cycle 2001 ke incident ki tarah hai, jahan economic growth decline ki taraf jati hai aur USD ki value ko affect karti hai. Isliye, estimate yeh hai ke USD abhi bhi kamzor hone ka potential rakhta hai aur XAUUSD ko bhi strongly bullish bana sakta hai. Ek brief fundamental discussion ke taur pe, bearish opportunity abhi bhi ASIA session ke liye valid hai kyunki 2473.93 ka RBS level buyers ke entry ke liye sabse nazdeek hai.
teesra phase, jo consolidation ka hota hai, abhi tak nahi hua. Jab consolidation hoga, to downward trend dobara shuru ho sakta hai, jisse resistance banegi. Jab tak consolidation nahi hoti, upward trend ka result decided nahi hai, aur yeh waqt hi batayega. Isliye, medium-term strategy abhi bhi relevant hai. Main consolidation ka intezaar kar raha hoon, jo ke ek aur upward move ka demand karti hai.

Hum ne pehle hourly time frame discuss kiya tha, lekin ab main daily chart par nazar daalna chahta hoon.

Daily time frame (D1) par, ek sideways wedge bana tha, jahan gold 76.43 par trade ho raha tha. 84.09 se rebound karne ke baad, resistance line se consistent decline shuru hua, jo gold ko gap ke saath ek strong downward movement mein le gaya. Channel ki lower limit unlikely nazar aayi, jo ke pichle haftay ke closing levels 74.09 se further decline ka indication de rahi thi. Yahan, price support line ko hit karegi, jahan main rebound aur upward correction expect kar raha hoon.

Medium-term perspective se dekha jaye, to continued decline indicate hoti hai, aur gold market open hote hi decrease karne ke chances hain. 2353.39 par, price minimum TF ko touch kar ke upward adjust hui. Price green zone ko cross karegi aur red zone ko support level ke taur par use karegi growth ke dauran. Is se MA resistance level break hoga, jahan red line 2390.74 par hai, aur price mid-trend level tak upar jayegi, jahan black line 2412.74 par hai. Price is mid-TF level (black line) ko bhi break kar sakti hai aur double top level tak upar move kar sakti hai, jo ke 2429.19 par hai.

Agar candle ka body imbalance area ke andar band ho jata hai, to ye is baat ki nishani hai ke market ke players is area ki izzat nahi kar rahe hain. Is liye hum agle reaction ko dekhte hain. Phir ya to ek breakout hota hai, aur hum naye scenario par nazar rakhte hain, ya ek nayi candle pichhli candle ke maximum/minimum se liquidity ko nikaal sakti hai aur palat sakti hai, jise ek poora reaction dikhaya ja sakta hai. Aur yahan duality ki koi jagah nahi honi chahiye. Author ki recommendations ko dobara dekhain. Ye areas wo hain jo zyada tar price ko attract karte hain, aur inhi areas mein reactions ke sath movements shuru hote hain. Chaliye ab XAU/USD (GOLD) currency pair ki halat ko dobara analyse karte hain.
Dekhein, price ne pehli swing liquidity ko 2477.278 ki value ke sath test kiya hai, aur reaction kahan gaya? Sabse qareeb imbalance (price gap) ka location kaafi door hai - 2417.264, lekin isay nazarandaz nahi kiya ja sakta. Ye samajhne ke liye ke kya price ek qareeb imbalance bana sakti hai, humein current daily candle ke close hone ka intezar karna padega. Agar ye close hota hai, jaisa chart par dikhaya gaya hai, to ye naye din ke liye growth ke haq mein support hai. Ye samajhne ki buniyad hai.

Current situation mein, mujhe ummeed hai ke southward correction khatam hogi aur upward scenario continue hoga. Mere khayalat screen ke andar hain. Lekin aaj mujhe is asset mein dilchaspi nahi hai. Ye samajhna zaroori hai ke kya current situation mein support ke taur par nayi imbalance banegi ya nahi. Abhi, nazar aata hai ke correction abhi tak mukammal nahi hui. Magar is horizontal line ka breakout false sabit hua, isliye hum ab downward correction dekh rahe hain. Main ye nahi keh sakta ke humare paas "double top" configuration hai, kyunki instrument quotes sideways range ke andar move kar rahe hain aur upper points of maximums lower border of trading range ke support level -2384 se zyada mukhtalif nahi hain.

Kal US inflation data ke publication ki ummeed hai, isliye mujhe zyada market volatility ka intezar hai. Agar gold north ki taraf jata hai, to hum historical maximums ke naye record dekhenge. South se, humara qareeb support level -2426 hai. Iska breakout decline ko -2384 ke support level tak le ja sakta hai

influence karte hain. In considerations ko fundamentals aur technicals ke assumptions ke sath pura dhyan me rakhna zaroori hai.

Fundamental point of view se, interest rate cuts ki rumors currency ki value ko kam karengi. Zyada tar investors aur traders market conditions ke bare me clarity ka intezar karte hain. Yeh clear hai ke Fed dheere dheere interest rates ko kam kar raha hai aur USD assets ko risky aur avoid karne ki advise de raha hai jab tak US recession clearly nahi aata. Fed ka cycle 2001 ke incident ki tarah hai, jahan economic growth decline ki taraf jati hai aur USD ki value ko affect karti hai. Isliye, estimate yeh hai ke USD abhi bhi kamzor hone ka potential rakhta hai aur XAUUSD ko bhi strongly bullish bana sakta hai. Ek brief fundamental discussion ke taur pe, bearish opportunity abhi bhi ASIA session ke liye valid hai kyunki 2473.93 ka RBS level buyers ke entry ke liye sabse nazdeek hai.
teesra phase, jo consolidation ka hota hai, abhi tak nahi hua. Jab consolidation hoga, to downward trend dobara shuru ho sakta hai, jisse resistance banegi. Jab tak consolidation nahi hoti, upward trend ka result decided nahi hai, aur yeh waqt hi batayega. Isliye, medium-term strategy abhi bhi relevant hai. Main consolidation ka intezaar kar raha hoon, jo ke ek aur upward move ka demand karti hai.

Hum ne pehle hourly time frame discuss kiya tha, lekin ab main daily chart par nazar daalna chahta hoon.

Daily time frame (D1) par, ek sideways wedge bana tha, jahan gold 76.43 par trade ho raha tha. 84.09 se rebound karne ke baad, resistance line se consistent decline shuru hua, jo gold ko gap ke saath ek strong downward movement mein le gaya. Channel ki lower limit unlikely nazar aayi, jo ke pichle haftay ke closing levels 74.09 se further decline ka indication de rahi thi. Yahan, price support line ko hit karegi, jahan main rebound aur upward correction expect kar raha hoon.
current situation mein support ke taur par nayi imbalance banegi ya nahi. Abhi, nazar aata hai ke correction abhi tak mukammal nahi hui. Magar is horizontal line ka breakout false sabit hua, isliye hum ab downward correction dekh rahe hain. Main ye nahi keh sakta ke humare paas "double top" configuration hai, kyunki instrument quotes sideways range ke andar move kar rahe hain aur upper points of maximums lower border of trading range ke support level -2384 se zyada mukhtalif nahi hain.

Kal US inflation data ke publication ki ummeed hai, isliye mujhe zyada market volatility ka intezar hai. Agar gold north ki taraf jata hai, to hum historical maximums ke naye record dekhenge. South se, humara qareeb support level -2426 hai. Iska breakout decline ko -2384 ke support level tak le ja sakta hai

liye hum agle reaction ko dekhte hain. Phir ya to ek breakout hota hai, aur hum naye scenario par nazar rakhte hain, ya ek nayi candle pichhli candle ke maximum/minimum se liquidity ko nikaal sakti hai aur palat sakti hai, jise ek poora reaction dikhaya ja sakta hai. Aur yahan duality ki koi jagah nahi honi chahiye. Author ki recommendations ko dobara dekhain. Ye areas wo hain jo zyada tar price ko attract karte hain, aur inhi areas mein reactions ke sath movements shuru hote hain. Chaliye ab XAU/USD (GOLD) currency pair ki halat ko dobara analyse karte hain.
Dekhein, price ne pehli swing liquidity ko 2477.278 ki value ke sath test kiya hai, aur reaction kahan gaya? Sabse qareeb imbalance (price gap) ka location kaafi door hai - 2417.264, lekin isay nazarandaz nahi kiya ja sakta. Ye samajhne ke liye ke kya price ek qareeb imbalance bana sakti hai, humein current daily candle ke close hone ka intezar karna padega. Agar ye close hota hai, jaisa chart par dikhaya gaya hai, to ye naye din ke liye growth ke haq mein support hai. Ye samajhne ki buniyad hai.current situation mein support ke taur par nayi imbalance banegi ya nahi. Abhi, nazar aata hai ke correction abhi tak mukammal nahi hui. Magar is horizontal line ka breakout false sabit hua, isliye hum ab downward correction dekh rahe hain. Main ye nahi keh sakta ke humare paas "double top" configuration hai, kyunki instrument quotes sideways range ke andar move kar rahe hain aur upper points of maximums lower border of trading range ke support level -2384 se zyada mukhtalif nahi hain.

Kal US inflation data ke publication ki ummeed hai, isliye mujhe zyada market volatility ka intezar hai. Agar gold north ki taraf jata hai, to hum historical