Gold

Economic data ki kami gold commodities ko itni unchai tak pohnchne se nahi rok sakti, magar ek retail trader jo aksar short-term investment horizon rakhta hai, aise conditions ko counter-trend strategy ke liye bohot interesting samajh sakta hai, yani bechne ka. Agar hum peeche dekhein, to H1 timeframe par ek bullish signal nazar aaya tha jo inverted head and shoulders pattern banata hai, lekin kyunki ye pattern resistance area mein ban raha tha, isliye itna interesting nahi lag raha tha. Lekin market ki apni ek direction hoti hai, jahan price turant all-time high record kar rahi thi neckline 2510 ko break karte hue 2531 tak. Ab jab market ne Wednesday enter kiya hai, to gold market trading options ke liye ab bhi bohot se mauqe hain.
Halanki price upar ja rahi hai, Daily aur H4 basis par ye increase strong momentum se supported nahi lagti, kyunki price position jo candlestick ke zariye represent ho rahi hai, wo Upper Bollingerbands line ke neeche closing dikhati hai, isse structure lower high banata hai Bollingerbands ke muqablay mein. Ye ek kamzori ka signal hai jo aksar traders ko samajh nahi aata. H4 basis par movement ko monitor karte hue, ye nazar aata hai ke high price position high momentum indicator ke saath nahi hai, isliye ye strong bearish divergence signal hai. Halanki price future trading mein seedha nahi gir sakti, ye swing traders ke liye ek accha signal hai jo sell positions banana shuru kar rahe hain. RSI 14 indicator bhi neeche ki taraf point kar raha hai aur lower low structure bana raha hai.

H1 basis par structure zyada interesting hai, jahan ek bearish flag pattern nazar aaya hai jo bearish candle ke baad ban gaya jo Middle Bollingerbands ko penetrate karti hai, aur phir ek corrective increase dekhne ko milti hai jo sequential candlestick ki shape se choti hai. Ye correction aur upar ja sakti hai blue resistance 2523 - 2531 ki taraf, kyunki pehle price yellow support 2500 tak gir gayi thi lekin buyers ne wahan resistance dikhayi. Jab tak yellow support jo significant demand hai, successfully penetrate nahi hoti, tab tak gold movement ka potential sideways reh sakta hai between blue resistance aur yellow support. Yahan se main ne trading plan banaya hai.

Gold ne hafte ke aakhri din kuch recovery dikhayi aur Thursday ki zyada 1% girawat ka kuch hissa wapas pa liya, jo ke weekly low tak gaya tha. US Dollar ko abhi bhi raat bhar ke bounce ko faida uthane mein mushkil ho rahi hai, kyunki US mein kam interest rates ka imkaan hai. Short-term mein, gold ki technical outlook buyers ke favor mein hai jab tak triangle resistance mein nahi badal jata. Support, jo ab $2,470 par hai, barqarar hai. Pichle hafte gold ne parallel triangle breakout achieve kiya aur 14-day Relative Strength Index north ki taraf ja raha hai, jo 50 se upar hai.

Ye technical indicators suggest karte hain ke gold ke liye bullish potential ab bhi bana hua hai. Agar gold buyers record high $2,532 ko wapas haasil kar lete hain, to agla target $2,550 hoga. Agar price isse bhi aage barhti hai, to $2,600 level ko challenge kar sakti hai, jo ke triangle target $2,660 ke raste mein hai. Agar gold price correction wapas shuru hoti hai, to foran support $2,470 par hoga, jo ke triangle resistance se replace ho sakta hai. Iske baad $2,450 ka psychological barrier gold ke hopefuls ke liye madadgar ho sakta hai.

Asian trading mein markets cautious hain aur Jerome Powell ka Jackson Hole headquarters mein speech ka intezar kar rahe hain, jahan se naye signals milne ki umeed hai. Bank ke interest rate path, khaaskar labor market conditions ke easing signs ke sath, traders ke liye important hai. Risk outflows US government bonds ki demand ko badhate hain, jo Treasury bond yield ko across the curve push karta hai aur USD ko neeche khinchta hai. Greenback ne bhi Bank of Japan ke Governor Kazuo Ueda ke critical remarks ke baad USD/JPY selloff ka samna kiya. US Dollar ne Thursday ko major rivals ke khilaf ek saal ke low se strong rebound kiya, gold prices mein 1% correction ke baad, jo ke US S&P global business PMIs aur jobless claims data ke concerns ke wajah se tha. Traders Friday ko Powell ke Jackson Hole showdown ke baad repositioning kar rahe hain.

sone ki qeemat ne jumme ko apna teesra musalsal haftawaar gain darj kiya, jabke America mein afsos ke sath inflation kam hone se Federal Reserve ke taraf se interest rates mein cut hone ki umeedein mazid mazboot ho gayi. Economic calendar ke natayij ke mutabiq... Guzishta hafta dikhaya ke America mein masarf ki qeematein June mein pehli baar chaar saalon mein gir gayi, jo ke Federal Reserve ke taraf se September mein interest rate cut hone ki umeedon ko mazid mazboot banata hai.Sarmayakaar ab Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell ke haaliye comments aur is hafte mazeed American economic reports ko dekh rahe hain taake mazeed rahnumayi hasil ho sake. Isi dauran, data ne ishara diya ke guzishta hafta Asia mein sone ki physical demand mein kami aayi jabke bartan ki unchi qeematon ne bazar mein ehtiyaat baratne ko badhawa diya.Sone ke bazaar ko mutasir karne wale asraat ke mutabiq... dollar ki qeemat safe haven demand ki buniyad par barh rahi hai. Electronic trading platforms ke mutabiq... dollar ki qeemat pehle 104.1 se neeche girne ke baad pehle martaba 104.2 tak barh gayi, jo ke June 3 ke baad se sabse kam satah tha. Weekend par Trump par hamlay ne keemati maaloomat ke mutabiq unke presidential election jeetne ke chances ko barhawa diya, jisne dollar ko upar dhakel diya.Trump ki policies, jaise ke sakht trade stance, lax regulations, aur proposed tax cuts, inflation ko barhawa dene ka imkaan hai. Isi dauran, traders ne September mein Federal Reserve ke taraf se US interest rates mein cut hone par 94% probability ke sath bet lagana jari rakha, jabke June ki masarf ki qeematein umeed se kam thi. Dollar board par mazid mazboot ho gaya, magar traders yen mein mazeed mumkina intervention ke bare mein hooshyar rahe.Dusri taraf, US 10-year Treasury bond yields Trump ke hamlay ki wajah se barh gayi. Trading ke mutabiq, 10-year US Treasury bond yields 4.2% se zyada barh gayi Monday ko, chaar mahine ke sabse kam satah se thori ubhaar lene ke baad, jabke US presidential candidate Donald Trump par hamlay ne unke November mein White House wapas jeetne ke chances ko barhawa diya. Markets ne Trump ki jeet ko Treasury bond yields ke liye bullish samjha kyunke unki policies ko tax cuts, immigration policy tightening aur import tariffs ke wajah se inflationary samjha gaya. Isi dauran, 10-year bond yield guzishta hafta pressure mein rahi, jabke US inflation ki kami ne Federal Reserve ke interest rate cuts par bet lagane ko barhawa diya.Majmoi taur par, Trump's assassination attempt ke baad US markets stable rahe. US stock futures, dollar aur Treasury bond yields Monday ko barh gayi jab markets ne weekend par ex-President Donald Trump par huye hamlay ka asar dekha, jo ke US political scene par sangin asar dal sakta hai. Hamlay mein ek attendee aur gunman ki maut ho gayi, aur do doosray critical condition mein thay, jabke Trump ek goli se zakhmi ho gaye.Traders ko dar hai ke mazeed tashadud siyasi adam mustaqil aur bazar ki uthal puthal ko bharakaa sakta hai, halaan ke tajziya karnay walon ne note kiya ke hamlay ne Trump ke November mein White House wapas jeetne ke chances ko barhawa diya hai.Aaj ke liye sone ki qeemat ki peshgoi: Neeche diye gaye rozana chart par performance ke mutabiq, sone ki qeemat ek mazboot upward path par hai jo $2400 per ounce ki psychological resistance ke upar move hone se supported hai, aur mazeed gains maqam-e-muqawamat $2420 aur $2435 per ounce tak mazeed technical indicators ko strong levels of saturation with buying ki taraf move karengi. Profit-taking sales tab tak nahi hongi jab tak US dollar ki qeemat recover nahi hoti aur geopolitical tensions calm nahi hoti, jo ke sone ke haal ke gains ke sabse numayan asraat hain. Filhaal, sone ke

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Gold (XAU/USD) Retests $2500/oz Ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole Remarks

Gold ki qeemat $2500/oz par wapis aayi hai jab ke ek lambi intezar ke baad retracement jo Thursday ki US session mein hui thi. Ek majmooiat me mazboot US Dollar, barhti hui US Yields aur Powell ke Jackson Hole Symposium mein address se pehle profit-taking ne isme kirdar ada kiya.

Market ke shirakatdar apne aap ko Fed Chair Jerome Powell ke intehai intezar kiye gaye speech ke liye position kar rahe the. Bohat logon ki umeed thi ke Powell September ke rate cuts ko confirm karega, magar Wednesday ko US jobs data mein downward revision ke baad, market ke shirakatdar samajhte hain ke September mein rate cut ek faisla shuda baat hai. Ab sawal yeh hai ke Powell ke remarks ka market par kya asar hoga?

Jis tarah halat hain, US Dollar ki kamzori aur pichlay hafte ke akhri din par Gold ki barhati hui qeemat is baat ki nishani hai ke September ke rate cut ke bare mein aksar umeedain shayad pehle se hi price mein shamil hain. Bohat se Fed policymakers ne kal yeh tasdeeq ki ke woh September mein rate cuts ko support karte hain aur iske bawajood Gold US session mein struggle karta raha. Yeh is baat ka ishara hai ke September ka rate cut shayad hissa ban chuka hai?

Yeh mera sochna hai Powell ke remarks se pehle aur isliye mujhe uske speech ka asar par shak hai.

Aaj aur bhi bohat se Federal Reserve policymakers ka docket par hona darshata hai ke volatility abhi bhi card par hai. Magar direction ke hawale se, mein Powell ke remarks se koi khaas tabdeeli ki umeed nahi rakhta. Mein kisi bhi 50 bps cut ke zikr par tawajju doonga jo ke kuch din pehle market mein favour mein price ho raha tha. Filhal, futures mein 100 bps se thori kam cuts ka price lag raha hai jo 2024 ke akhir tak hoga.

Technical Analysis Gold (XAU/USD)

Technical standpoint se dekha jaye to Gold mein European session mein rebound kaafi impressive raha hai jab ke precious metal ne $2500/oz handle par peak kar liya. Kal ka dip shayad ek precursor tha jis ne bulls ko reload karne diya aur dusron ko behtar price par entry lene di.

Yeh shayad aaj subha ke recovery ke speed ko wazeh kar sakta hai jab ke Fed Chair Powell stage par anay wala hai.

Kal ka bada bearish engulfing candle ne support talash ki 2472 ke key area par, phir buyers ne wapas aake price ko uper push kiya. Mein Monday se hi aise pullback ka intezar kar raha tha jab ke gold ne $2500/oz mark par high ground hold kiya tha.

Given ke Gold continue karta hai print karna ATH, aakhri key levels talash karna mushkil ho raha hai. Aaj ke US session mein foran resistance ho sakta hai 2514 aur 2531.66 par jo ke is week ka high hai ab tak.



Neeche ke side par immediate support 2484 par hai, phir 2472 area wapas focus mein aata hai. Ek move neeche 2450 ke key area of support ka retest khol sakta hai.

Kal ke $2515 se decline ne buyers ko $2470 ke local demand zone par attract kiya jis ne aaj ke $2502 tak recovery rally lead ki aur metal ab immediate resistance band $2502-$2507 par lean kar raha hai jo agle price action ke course ka faisla karega.

Agar yeh barrier wapas aa gaya, toh hum further advance dekh sakte hain $2520 aur phir $2532 ki taraf. Agar yeh hurdle clear nahi hota, toh metal short term ke liye downward correctional path par wapas push ho jayega jo ke clear hoga agar immediate support band $2492-$2482 toot jata hai, jo ke recent $2470 low se beyond extend ho sakta hai jahan agla downside support 4 hourly 100 SMA $2456 followed by $2442 par dekha ja sakta hai.

Fundamental Views

US aaj G10 aur emerging market currencies ke against ek softer profile ke sath consolidate kar raha hai, Fed Chair Powell ke Jackson Hole speech (10 AM ET) se pehle. Yeh expected hai ke woh market jo already sochti hai usse zyada nahi kehenga: yani, pehla rate cut agle mahine diya jayega. Yeh tasleem karke ke economy broadly un lines par evolve hui hai jo central bank ne expected ki thi, yeh 50 bp move ki speculation ke khilaf ek narm push hoga. Mojooda context mein, ek rate cut easy policy ko nahi laye ga, balki mojooda stance ko kam restrictive banaye ga. Dollar Index hafte ke darmiyan apne saal ke lowest point par gir gaya aur abhi bhi trough mein hai. BOJ ke Ueda ne pichle mahine ke rate hike ko wazeh kiya aur kisi naye shock ke baghair forward guidance se peeche nahi hata. Dollar yen ke against kal ke range ke andar hi reh raha hai.

Global stocks ne kal ke sharp equity sell-off in US se khauf nahi khaya. Asia Pacific region ke ziada tar large markets uper gaye magar Australia, Hong Kong, aur South Korea nahi. Stoxx 600 teesri consecutive session ke liye uper hai. Yeh teesra weekly advance hai, sabse lamba March se. US index futures uper trade kar rahe hain magar technically vulnerable lag rahe hain. Benchmark 10-year yields aaj narrowly mixed hain, aur 10-year Treasury yield flat hai 3.85% ke qareeb. Gold kal ke range mein consolidate kar raha hai aur $2500 ke qareeb hai. October WTI ne kal ke four-day down draft ko snap kiya, 1.5% barha aur ab 1% aur barh gaya hai takreeban $74 ko choone tak, jo ke Red Sea mein attack ke jawab mein hai.

Asia Pacific

BOJ Governor Ueda ne pichle mahine ke decision to hike rates ka difaa kiya aur additional rate adjustments ka darwaza khula rakha, agar che nazer aata hai ke turant nahi (agle mahine). Dusre central banks ki tarah, BOJ bhi market turmoil ke darmiyan policy change karne se bacha chahta hai magar yeh ek tactical decision hai. Strategic tor par, Ueda central bank ko dheere dheere monetary policy normalize karne ki taraf le ja rahe hain. Market isse recognize kar raha hai, aur overnight swaps dikhate hain ke takreeban 11 bp of tightening pehle se hi end of year ke liye discount ho chuka hai aur yeh national CPI ke report hone ke baad thoda badla. CPI report mein koi nayi maloomat nahi thi. Yeh pehle se anticipate ki gayi thi jab Tokyo ka August CPI release hua tha. Headline pace 2.8% par unchanged raha (bajaye slip to 2.7% jaisa ke bohot se log umeed kar rahe the). Core rate 2.7% (2.6% se) par tick up hua, utility subsidies cut ki gayi. Woh measure jo fresh food aur energy ko exclude karta hai 1.9% (2.2% se) par ease hua. Yeh pehla sub-2% reading hai since September 2022.

Kaho jo bhi BOJ aur interest rate differentials ke bare mein, 30-day rolling correlation of changes in US 10-year yield aur exchange rate ke upper end par hai jahan yeh pichle paanch mahine se raha hai (~0.60). 10-year differential aur exchange rate mein changes ke correlation ek third lower hai. Barhte US rates ne lagta hai dollar ko JPY146.50 par lift kar diya jab ke European session wind down ho raha tha kal. Yaad rakhna ke Wednesday ka high quick spike ke around set hua tha jab apparently thoda delay se job revision data release hua tha JPY146.75 ke qareeb. Hum ye samajhte hain ke US interest rates ne near-term low forge kar diya hai. Dollar aaj ke range ke andar trade kar raha hai (~JPY144.85-JPY146.55). Australian dollar ne recent dinon mein surge kiya hai takreeban high set karne ke liye pehle ke carnage ke carry-trade ke sath. Yeh 4 cent se zyada rally momentum indicators ko stretch kar chuki hai aur kal profit-taking ne kick in kiya. Wednesday par $0.6760 se ooper trade karne ke baad, Aussie kal $0.6700 ke against push kiya gaya. Yeh area aaj hold kiya, aur Australian dollar near $0.6730-35 tak pohncha consolidative activity mein. Yeh (38.2%) retracement of latest leg up from August 15 low near $0.6570 slightly below $0.6690 par hai. Halfway mark $0.6665 hai. Dollar ka recovery yen ke against offshore yuan ke gains ko signal kiya. Dollar near CNH7.15 ke 3 din ke high tak barh gaya. Yeh bhi ek inside day record kar raha hai. Dollar ek martaba phir se offshore yuan ke against stronger hai na ke onshore yuan, jo ke dollar par buying pressure ka indicative bhi lagta hai. Last week ke upper end tak simple return ke liye, greenback CNH7.1850 tak barh sakta hai. Lower dollar fixings ka silsila aaj khatam ho gaya. PBOC ne dollar ka reference rate CNY7.1358 (CNY7.1228 kal aur CNY7.1464 ek hafte pehle) par set kiya. Yeh paanchwa consecutive week hai jab dollar onshore yuan ke against gira hai, cumulative loss takreeban 1.5% ka.

Europe

Europe aaj overshadowed hai BOJ Governor ke last month's monetary accommodation ko thoda aur remove karne ke step ka difaa karne se aur Federal Reserve ke Powell ke speech at Jackson Hole se. ECB ke survey ne dekha ke one-year inflation expectation steady rahi 2.8% par, jab ke three-year expectations edge up ki 2.4% se 2.3% par. Next week's calendar preliminary August CPI aur July unemployment feature karega. ECB kehti hai ke yeh data dependent hai, magar market confident hai ke yeh is saal ke end tak at least 50 bp aur cuts dega aur (~60%) towards 75 bp in the remaining three meetings of the year. UK's economic calendar aaj light hai aur agle hafte in terms of market-moving data points bhi. Phir bhi, G7 mein H1 24 growth lead karne ke baad, July data aur August flash PMI dikhata hai ke UK economy ne Q3 ke start par momentum rakha hai. Is saal ke 3 BOE meetings baqi hain. Market ek aur cut ka confident hai magar Q1 25 tak dusra cut hone ke imkan ko kam kar chuka hai.

Sharp euro rally kal stall ho gayi thi. Isne apna lowest settlement teen dinon mein post kiya. Stretched momentum indicators ke madde nazar, reasonable chance hai ke hum jis consolidative/corrective phase ki umeed kar rahe the woh shuru ho gaya hai. Yeh aram se trade kar raha hai mostly $1.1110 aur $1.1130 ke darmiyan. Saal ka high Wednesday par near $1.1175 par set hua tha. Hum samajhte hain ke $1.1140-50 area ab ise cap karega. Sterling bhi stall hota hua lagta hai, magar isne marginal naya high near $1.3135 par set kiya aaj 2023 ke high se ek dasve cent ke andar. Intraday momentum indicator stretched hai, warning ke upside aaj North America mein limited ho sakta hai.

America

Fed Chair Powell ke Jackson Hole mein speech ne kuch bhi interest ko eclipse kar diya jo ke July ke naye home sales (teen mahine mein pehli bar increase?) aur Kansas Fed ke services activity survey (services PMI 55.0 se slow hokar 53.5 tak) mein ho sakta tha. Powell aisa kya keh sakta hai jo hum pehle se nahi jaante? Yeh bilkul doubt nahi hai ke Fed September mein rates cut karega. September 6 ko jobs report aur September 11 ko CPI ke liye, Powell direct reference magnitude ke liye avoid kar sakta hai. Phir bhi, overall sense yeh hoga ke economy waise hi evolve ho rahi hai jaisa Fed ne anticipate kiya tha (including jobs growth ka downward revision), aur isse ek 25 bp move ka implication hoga. Pehle cuts frame ho sakte hain aur shayad policy ke restrictiveness ko kam karne ke tor par hote hain. Jab sab kuch keh diya jaye aur ho jaye, economy shayad Federal Reserve ke non-inflationary pace ke estimate ke qareeb grow kar rahi hai. Yeh Wall Street ke economists ke urgency ko share nahi karta. Canada ne June retail sales report ki. Economists ne ek aur decline expect kiya. May tak, retail sales is saal sirf ek martaba (April) barhi thi.

US dollar ne kal Canadian dollar ke against apne chaar mahine ke lowest level (~CAD1.3570) par bottom banaya. Isne recover kiya takreeban CAD1.3620 tak magar wapas near CAD1.3580 European morning mein hai. Intraday momentum indicators stretched hain, suggesting ke kal ka low hold kar sakta hai. Greenback ne August 5 ko takreeban CAD1.3945 par peak kiya tha. Ek modest correction dekh sakta hai CAD1.3650 initially. Mexican peso ne hard sell off kiya tha teesri din kal. Yen ki kamzori ne peso se pressure nahi uthaya, aur US dollar ne MXN19.50 par trade kiya pehli bar do hafton mein. Economic data ne peso ke khilaf sazish ki. IGAE economic survey for June ne dikhaya ke economy mein weak momentum tha aur August ke pehle hise ke CPI ne softer than expected dikhaya. Core rate char saalon mein pehli baar 4% se neeche gira. Magar market ko peso bechne ke liye nayi wajah ki zaroorat nahi thi. Peso ke against pehle teen din mein dollar ko 3% se zyada giraya gaya. Dollar narrow range mein consolidate kar raha hai ab tak (~MXN19.4370-MXN19.5335). Note karein ke MXN19.60 dollar ke pullback ka (61.8%) retracement hai jo ke MXN20.2180 se hit hone ke baad MXN20.2180 August 5 ko.

thay. Traders ko dar hai ke mazeed siyasi tashadud adam mustaqil aur bazar ki uthal puthal ko bharakaa sakta hai, halaan ke tajziya karnay walon ne note kiya ke hamlay ne Trump ke election jeetne ke chances ko barhawa diya hai.Isi dauran, sone ki qeemat ne jumme ko apna teesra musalsal haftawaar gain darj kiya, jabke America mein afsos ke sath inflation kam hone se Federal Reserve ke taraf se interest rates mein cut hone ki umeedein mazid mazboot ho gayi. Economic calendar ke natayij ke mutabiq... Guzishta hafta dikhaya ke America mein masarf ki qeematein June mein pehli baar chaar saalon mein gir gayi, jo ke Federal Reserve ke taraf se September mein interest rate cut hone ki umeedon ko mazid mazboot banata hai.Sarmayakaar ab Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell ke haaliye comments aur is hafte mazeed American economic reports ko dekh rahe hain taake mazeed rahnumayi hasil ho sake. Isi dauran, data ne ishara diya ke guzishta hafta Asia mein sone ki physical demand mein kami aayi jabke bartan ki unchi qeematon ne bazar mein ehtiyaat baratne ko badhawa diya.Sone ke bazaar ko mutasir karne wale asraat ke mutabiq... dollar ki qeemat safe haven demand ki buniyad par barh rahi hai. Electronic trading platforms ke mutabiq... dollar ki qeemat pehle 104.1 se neeche girne ke baad pehle martaba 104.2 tak barh gayi, jo ke June 3 ke baad se sabse kam satah tha. Weekend par Trump par hamlay ne keemati maaloomat ke mutabiq unke presidential election jeetne ke chances ko barhawa diya, jisne dollar ko upar dhakel diya.Trump ki policies, jaise ke sakht trade stance, lax regulations, aur proposed tax cuts, inflation ko barhawa dene ka imkaan hai. Isi dauran, traders ne September mein Federal Reserve ke taraf se US interest rates mein cut hone par 94% probability ke sath bet lagana jari rakha, jabke June ki masarf ki qeematein umeed se kam thi. Dollar board par mazid mazboot ho gaya, magar traders yen mein mazeed mumkina intervention ke bare mein hooshyar rahe.Dusri taraf, US 10-year Treasury bond yields Trump ke hamlay ki wajah se barh gayi. Trading ke mutabiq, 10-year US Treasury bond yields 4.2% se zyada barh gayi Monday ko, chaar mahine ke sabse kam satah se thori ubhaar lene ke baad, jabke US presidential candidate Donald Trump par hamlay ne unke November mein White House wapas jeetne ke chances ko barhawa diya. Markets ne Trump ki jeet ko Treasury bond yields ke liye bullish samjha kyunke unki policies ko tax cuts, immigration policy tightening aur import tariffs ke wajah se inflationary samjha gaya. Isi dauran, 10-year bond yield guzishta hafta pressure mein rahi, jabke US inflation ki kami ne Federal Reserve ke interest rate cuts par bet lagane ko barhawa diya.Majmoi taur par, Trump's assassination attempt ke baad US markets stable rahe. US stock futures, dollar aur Treasury bond yields Monday ko barh gayi jab markets ne weekend par ex-President Donald Trump par huye hamlay ka asar dekha, jo ke US political scene par sangin asar dal sakta hai Hamlay mein ek attendee aur gunman ki maut ho gayi, aur do doosray critical condition mein thay, jabke Trump ek goli se zakhmi ho gaye.Traders ko dar hai ke mazeed tashadud siyasi adam mustaqil aur bazar ki uthal puthal ko bharakaa sakta hai, halaan ke tajziya karnay walon ne note kiya ke hamlay ne Trump ke November mein White House wapas jeetne ke chances ko barhawa diya hai.Aaj ke liye sone ki qeemat ki peshgoi: Neeche diye gaye rozana chart par performance ke mutabiq, sone ki qeemat ek mazboot upward path par hai jo $2400 per ounce ki psychological resistance ke upar move hone se supported hai, aur mazeed gains maqam-e-muqawamat $2420 aur $2435 per ounce tak mazeed technical indicators ko strong levels of saturation with buying ki taraf move karengi. Profit-taking sales tab tak nahi hongi jab tak US dollar ki qeemat recover nahi hoti aur geopolitical tensions calm nahi hoti, jo ke sone ke haal ke gains ke sabse numayan asraat hain.

ka samna kar rahi thi jab sarmayakaar ex-US President Donald Trump par huye qatal ki koshish ka asar maali bazaars par maloom kar rahe thay. Traders ko dar hai ke mazeed siyasi tashadud adam mustaqil aur bazar ki uthal puthal ko bharakaa sakta hai, halaan ke tajziya karnay walon ne note kiya ke hamlay ne Trump ke election jeetne ke chances ko barhawa diya hai. Asia mein sone ki physical demand mein kami aayi jabke bartan ki unchi qeematon ne bazar mein ehtiyaat baratne ko badhawa diya.Sone ke bazaar ko mutasir karne wale asraat ke mutabiq... dollar ki qeemat safe haven demand ki buniyad par barh rahi hai. Electronic trading platforms ke mutabiq... dollar ki qeemat pehle 104.1 se neeche girne ke baad pehle martaba 104.2 tak barh gayi, jo ke June 3 ke baad se sabse kam satah tha. Weekend par Trump par hamlay ne keemati maaloomat ke mutabiq unke presidential election jeetne ke chances ko barhawa diya, jisne dollar ko upar dhakel diya.Trump ki policies, jaise ke sakht trade stance, lax regulations, aur proposed tax cuts, inflation ko barhawa dene ka imkaan hai. Isi dauran, traders ne September mein Federal Reserve ke taraf se US interest rates mein cut hone par 94% probability ke sath bet lagana jari rakha, jabke June ki masarf ki qeematein umeed se kam thi. Dollar board par mazid mazboot ho gaya, magar traders yen mein mazeed mumkina intervention ke bare mein hooshyar rahe.Dusri taraf, US 10-





year Treasury bond yields Trump ke hamlay ki wajah se barh gayi. Trading ke mutabiq, 10-year US Treasury bond yields 4.2% se zyada barh gayi Monday ko, chaar mahine ke sabse kam satah se thori ubhaar lene ke baad, jabke US presidential candidate Donald Trump par hamlay ne unke November mein White House wapas jeetne ke chances ko barhawa diya. Markets ne Trump ki jeet ko Treasury bond yields ke liye bullish samjha kyunke unki policies ko tax cuts, immigration policy tightening aur import tariffs ke wajah se inflationary samjha gaya. Isi dauran, 10-year bond yield guzishta hafta pressure mein rahi, jabke US inflation ki kami ne Federal Reserve ke interest rate cuts par bet lagane ko barhawa diya.Majmoi taur par, Trump's assassination attempt ke baad US markets stable rahe. US stock futures, dollar aur Treasury bond yields Monday ko barh gayi jab markets ne weekend par ex-President Donald Trump par huye hamlay ka asar dekha, jo ke US political scene par sangin asar dal sakta hai. Hamlay mein ek attendee aur gunman ki maut ho gayi, aur do doosray critical condition mein thay, jabke Trump ek goli se zakhmi ho gaye.Traders ko dar hai ke mazeed tashadud siyasi adam mustaqil aur bazar ki uthal puthal ko bharakaa sakta hai, Aaj ke liye sone ki qeemat ki peshgoi: Neeche diye gaye rozana chart par performance ke mutabiq, sone ki qeemat ek mazboot upward path par hai jo $2400 per ounce ki psychological resistance ke upar move hone se supported hai, aur mazeed gains maqam-e-muqawamat $2420 aur $2435 per ounce tak mazeed technical indicators ko strong levels of saturation with buying ki taraf move karengi. Profit-taking sales tab tak nahi hongi jab tak US dollar ki qeemat recover nahi hoti aur geopolitical tensions calm nahi hoti, jo ke sone ke haal ke gains ke sabse numayan asraat hain.

Guzishta hafta dikhaya ke America mein masarf ki qeematein June mein pehli baar chaar saalon mein gir gayi, jo ke Federal Reserve ke taraf se September mein interest rate cut hone ki umeedon ko mazid mazboot banata hai.Sarmayakaar ab Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell ke haaliye comments aur is hafte mazeed American economic reports ko dekh rahe hain taake mazeed rahnumayi hasil ho sake. Isi dauran, data ne ishara diya ke guzishta hafta Asia mein sone ki physical demand mein kami aayi jabke bartan ki unchi qeematon ne bazar mein ehtiyaat baratne ko badhawa diya.Sone ke bazaar ko mutasir karne wale asraat ke mutabiq... dollar ki qeemat safe haven demand ki buniyad par barh rahi hai. Electronic trading platforms ke mutabiq... dollar ki qeemat pehle 104.1 se neeche girne ke baad pehle martaba 104.2 tak barh gayi, jo ke June 3 ke baad se sabse kam satah tha. Weekend par Trump par hamlay ne keemati maaloomat ke mutabiq unke presidential election jeetne ke chances ko barhawa diya, jisne dollar ko upar dhakel diya.Trump ki policies, jaise ke sakht trade stance, lax regulations, aur proposed tax cuts, inflation ko barhawa dene ka imkaan hai. Isi dauran, traders ne September mein Federal Reserve ke taraf se US interest rates mein cut hone par 94% probability ke sath bet lagana jari rakha, jabke June ki masarf ki qeematein umeed se kam thi. Dollar board par mazid mazboot ho gaya, magar traders yen mein mazeed mumkina intervention ke bare mein hooshyar rahe.Dusri taraf, US 10-year Treasury bond yields Trump ke hamlay ki wajah se barh gayi. Trading ke mutabiq, 10-year US Treasury bond yields 4.2% se zyada barh gayi Monday ko, chaar mahine ke sabse kam satah se thori ubhaar lene ke baad, jabke US presidential candidate Donald Trump par hamlay ne unke November mein White House wapas jeetne ke chances ko barhawa diya. Markets ne Trump ki jeet ko Treasury bond yields ke liye bullish samjha kyunke unki policies ko tax cuts, immigration policy tightening aur import tariffs ke wajah se inflationary samjha gaya. Isi dauran, 10-year bond yield guzishta hafta pressure mein rahi, jabke US inflation ki kami ne Federal Reserve ke interest rate cuts par bet lagane ko barhawa diya.Majmoi taur par, Trump's assassination attempt ke baad US markets stable rahe. US stock futures, dollar aur Treasury bond yields Monday ko barh gayi jab markets ne weekend par ex-President Donald Trump par huye hamlay ka asar dekha, jo ke US political scene par sangin asar dal sakta hai. Hamlay mein ek attendee aur gunman ki maut ho gayi, aur do doosray critical condition mein thay, jabke Trump ek goli se zakhmi ho gaye.Traders ko dar hai ke mazeed tashadud siyasi adam mustaqil aur bazar ki uthal puthal ko bharakaa sakta hai, halaan ke tajziya karnay walon ne note kiya ke hamlay ne Trump ke November mein White House wapas jeetne ke chances ko barhawa diya hai.Aaj ke liye sone ki qeemat ki peshgoi: Neeche diye gaye rozana chart par performance ke mutabiq, sone ki qeemat ek mazboot upward path par hai jo $2400 per ounce ki psychological resistance ke upar move hone se supported hai, aur mazeed gains maqam-e-muqawamat $2420 aur $2435 per ounce tak mazeed technical indicators ko strong levels of saturation with buying ki taraf move karengi. Profit-taking sales tab tak nahi hongi jab tak US dollar ki qeemat recover nahi hoti aur geopolitical tensions calm nahi hoti, jo ke sone ke haal ke gains ke sabse numayan asraat hain. Filhaal, sone ke qareebi support levels $2,400 aur

gold ke price movement ko candlesticks ke zariye dikhaya gaya hai, jo har 30-minute period ke liye open, high, low, aur close prices ko show karta hai.

Moving Averages: Do moving averages dikhai de rahi hain:
- Red Line: Yeh aam tor par ek shorter period moving average ko represent karti hai.
- Blue Line: Yeh aam tor par ek longer period moving average ko represent karti hai.
Is case mein, lagta hai ke red line 5-period moving average hai aur blue line 10-period moving average hai.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): RSI indicator 51.49 par hai. Yeh oscillator 0 se 100 tak range karta hai aur overbought ya oversold conditions ko identify karne ke liye use hota hai. Aam tor par, RSI agar 70 se upar ho to yeh overbought mana jata hai, aur agar 30 se neeche ho to yeh oversold mana jata hai.

Stochastic Oscillator: Stochastic indicator %K aur %D lines ko 34.26 aur 35.32 par show kar raha hai. Yeh bhi ek momentum indicator hai jo kisi particular closing price ko uski prices ke range ke sath compare karta hai ek certain period mein. Agar value 80 se upar ho, to yeh overbought conditions ko indicate karti hai, aur agar value 20 se neeche ho, to yeh oversold conditions ko indicate karti hai.

Volume: Chart ke neeche volume bars dikhai de rahi hain jo har 30-minute period mein transactions ya volume of trade ko indicate karti hain. Higher volume bars stronger price movements ko indicate kar sakti hain.

Sell Signal: Chart par ek sell order (#1130813621) note ki gayi hai jo suggest karti hai ke ek trade certain price point par initiate kiya gaya tha.

Indicators ke basis par:
- RSI neutral hai aur 51.49 ke aas paas hai.
- Stochastic Oscillator bhi relatively neutral hai lekin downward trend mein hai, jo ke potential bearish momentum ko indicate karta hai.
- Price filhal moving averages ke neeche hai, jo ke bearish trend ka signal ho sakta hai.

Gold Market Analysis: Daily Timeframe and Bollinger Bands Indicator Insights

Gold Price Under Bearish Control: Key Levels to Watch

Daily timeframe par Bollinger Bands indicator ka istemal karte hue, yeh dekha ja sakta hai ke gold price abhi sellers ke control mein hai. Sellers price ko Upper Bollinger Bands ke area ke neeche rakhe hue hain, aur ek strong bearish candlestick formation yeh ishaara deti hai ke Gold market abhi bhi strong bearish trend mein hai. Agla target Middle Bollinger Bands area ki taraf hai, jahan price 2453-2452 ke aas paas hai aur yeh ab tak buyers ne maintain kiya hua hai.

Friday Afternoon Trading Insights

Friday afternoon trading ke doran, sellers abhi bhi zyada strong nazar aa rahe hain unke mukable jo trading ko dominate nahi kar paaye hain. Isliye price control phir se buyers ke haath mein aagaya hai jo price ko bullish direction mein le ja raha hai. Target seller ke resistance area ki taraf hai jo price 2503-2505 ke aas paas hai. Agar yeh level penetrate ho gaya, toh Gold price aur bhi zyada soar kar sakta hai, aur agla target seller ke supply resistance area 2528-2530 ki taraf hoga.

Trading Opportunities

1. Sell Entry:
Agar seller nearest buyer support area ko penetrate kar sake, jo price 2492-2490 ke aas paas hai, toh sell entry ki ja sakti hai. TP target area price 2472-2470 par hoga.

2. Buy Entry:
Agar buyer nearest seller resistance area ko successfully break kar sake, jo price 2503-2505 ke aas paas hai, toh buy entry ki ja sakti hai. TP target area price 2528-2530 par hoga.

Gold Market Pattern and Fundamental Data

Aaj ke liye meri gold analysis bhi hai aur abhi ka pattern kaafi acha hai analyze karne ke liye. Ek reversal pattern nazar aa raha hai, jo pehle bullish trend tha ab bearish trend ki taraf move kar raha hai. Fundamental data jo aaj raat release hoga, gold pair ko affect karega. Entry se pehle fundamental data ke release tak ehtiyaat zaroori hai.

Technical Indicators

Gold market ko analyze karne ke liye, main H4 timeframe aur moving average indicators (period 21 aur period 34) ka istemal karta hoon. Last night gold ne moving average indicators ko penetrate kiya, jo bearish trend ke shuru hone ka sign hai. Filhal, gold resistance area ko test kar raha hai as a rebound point. Main sell opportunity dhoond raha hoon sell stop ke sath price level 2490 par aur stop loss ko aaj ke highest price par set kar raha hoon. Mera target price level 2451 par hai.

Conclusion

Yeh analysis aapko gold market ke current trend aur trading opportunities ke baare mein insights provide karta hai. Umeed hai yeh aapke trading decisions ke liye madadgar sabit hogi. For detailed analysis and updates, Investsocial forum ke members ke saath jude rahiye.

Gold ne hafte ke aakhri din kuch recovery dikhayi aur Thursday ki zyada 1% girawat ka kuch hissa wapas pa liya, jo ke weekly low tak gaya tha. US Dollar ko abhi bhi raat bhar ke bounce ko faida uthane mein mushkil ho rahi hai, kyunki US mein kam interest rates ka imkaan hai. Short-term mein, gold ki technical outlook buyers ke favor mein hai jab tak triangle resistance mein nahi badal jata. Support, jo ab $2,470 par hai, barqarar hai. Pichle hafte gold ne parallel triangle breakout achieve kiya aur 14-day Relative Strength Index north ki taraf ja raha hai, jo 50 se upar hai.

Ye technical indicators suggest karte hain ke gold ke liye bullish potential ab bhi bana hua hai. Agar gold buyers record high $2,532 ko wapas haasil kar lete hain, to agla target $2,550 hoga. Agar price isse bhi aage barhti hai, to $2,600 level ko challenge kar sakti hai, jo ke triangle target $2,660 ke raste mein hai. Agar gold price correction wapas shuru hoti hai, to foran support $2,470 par hoga, jo ke triangle resistance se replace ho sakta hai. Iske baad $2,450 ka psychological barrier gold ke hopefuls ke liye madadgar ho sakta hai.



Asian trading mein markets cautious hain aur Jerome Powell ka Jackson Hole headquarters mein speech ka intezar kar rahe hain, jahan se naye signals milne ki umeed hai. Bank ke interest rate path, khaaskar labor market conditions ke easing signs ke sath, traders ke liye important hai. Risk outflows US government bonds ki demand ko badhate hain, jo Treasury bond yield ko across the curve push karta hai aur USD ko neeche khinchta hai. Greenback ne bhi Bank of Japan ke Governor Kazuo Ueda ke critical remarks ke baad USD/JPY selloff ka samna kiya. US Dollar ne Thursday ko major rivals ke khilaf ek saal ke low se strong rebound kiya, gold prices mein 1% correction ke baad, jo ke US S&P global business PMIs aur jobless claims data ke concerns ke wajah se tha. Traders Friday ko Powell ke Jackson Hole showdown ke baad repositioning kar rahe hain.

Gold ne hafte ke aakhri din kuch recovery dikhayi aur Thursday ki zyada 1% girawat ka kuch hissa wapas pa liya, jo ke weekly low tak gaya tha. US Dollar ko abhi bhi raat bhar ke bounce ko faida uthane mein mushkil ho rahi hai, kyunki US mein kam interest rates ka imkaan hai. Short-term mein, gold ki technical outlook buyers ke favor mein hai jab tak triangle resistance mein nahi badal jata. Support, jo ab $2,470 par hai, barqarar hai. Pichle hafte gold ne parallel triangle breakout achieve kiya aur 14-day Relative Strength Index north ki taraf ja raha hai, jo 50 se upar hai.

Ye technical indicators suggest karte hain ke gold ke liye bullish potential ab bhi bana hua hai. Agar gold buyers record high $2,532 ko wapas haasil kar lete hain, to agla target $2,550 hoga. Agar price isse bhi aage barhti hai, to $2,600 level ko challenge kar sakti hai, jo ke triangle target $2,660 ke raste mein hai. Agar gold price correction wapas shuru hoti hai, to foran support $2,470 par hoga, jo ke triangle resistance se replace ho sakta hai. Iske baad $2,450 ka psychological barrier gold ke hopefuls ke liye madadgar ho sakta hai.



Asian trading mein markets cautious hain aur Jerome Powell ka Jackson Hole headquarters mein speech ka intezar kar rahe hain, jahan se naye signals milne ki umeed hai. Bank ke interest rate path, khaaskar labor market conditions ke easing signs ke sath, traders ke liye important hai. Risk outflows US government bonds ki demand ko badhate hain, jo Treasury bond yield ko across the curve push karta hai aur USD ko neeche khinchta hai. Greenback ne bhi Bank of Japan ke Governor Kazuo Ueda ke critical remarks ke baad USD/JPY selloff ka samna kiya. US Dollar ne Thursday ko major rivals ke khilaf ek saal ke low se strong rebound kiya, gold prices mein 1% correction ke baad, jo ke US S&P global business PMIs aur jobless claims data ke concerns ke wajah se tha. Traders Friday ko Powell ke Jackson Hole showdown ke baad repositioning kar rahe hain.

Gold ne hafte ke aakhri din kuch recovery dikhayi aur Thursday ki zyada 1% girawat ka kuch hissa wapas pa liya, jo ke weekly low tak gaya tha. US Dollar ko abhi bhi raat bhar ke bounce ko faida uthane mein mushkil ho rahi hai, kyunki US mein kam interest rates ka imkaan hai. Short-term mein, gold ki technical outlook buyers ke favor mein hai jab tak triangle resistance mein nahi badal jata. Support, jo ab $2,470 par hai, barqarar hai. Pichle hafte gold ne parallel triangle breakout achieve kiya aur 14-day Relative Strength Index north ki taraf ja raha hai, jo 50 se upar hai.

Ye technical indicators suggest karte hain ke gold ke liye bullish potential ab bhi bana hua hai. Agar gold buyers record high $2,532 ko wapas haasil kar lete hain, to agla target $2,550 hoga. Agar price isse bhi aage barhti hai, to $2,600 level ko challenge kar sakti hai, jo ke triangle target $2,660 ke raste mein hai. Agar gold price correction wapas shuru hoti hai, to foran support $2,470 par hoga, jo ke triangle resistance se replace ho sakta hai. Iske baad $2,450 ka psychological barrier gold ke hopefuls ke liye madadgar ho sakta hai.

Asian trading mein markets cautious hain aur Jerome Powell ka Jackson Hole headquarters mein speech ka intezar kar rahe hain, jahan se naye signals milne ki umeed hai. Bank ke interest rate path, khaaskar labor market conditions ke easing signs ke sath, traders ke liye important hai. Risk outflows US government bonds ki demand ko badhate hain, jo Treasury bond yield ko across the curve push karta hai aur USD ko neeche khinchta hai. Greenback ne bhi Bank of Japan ke Governor Kazuo Ueda ke critical remarks ke baad USD/JPY selloff ka samna kiya. US Dollar ne Thursday ko major rivals ke khilaf ek saal ke low se strong rebound kiya, gold prices mein 1% correction ke baad, jo ke US S&P global business PMIs aur jobless claims data ke concerns ke wajah se tha. Traders Friday ko Powell ke Jackson Hole showdown ke baad repositioning kar rahe hain.

Gold ne hafte ke aakhri din kuch recovery dikhayi aur Thursday ki zyada 1% girawat ka kuch hissa wapas pa liya, jo ke weekly low tak gaya tha. US Dollar ko abhi bhi raat bhar ke bounce ko faida uthane mein mushkil ho rahi hai, kyunki US mein kam interest rates ka imkaan hai. Short-term mein, gold ki technical outlook buyers ke favor mein hai jab tak triangle resistance mein nahi badal jata. Support, jo ab $2,470 par hai, barqarar hai. Pichle hafte gold ne parallel triangle breakout achieve kiya aur 14-day Relative Strength Index north ki taraf ja raha hai, jo 50 se upar hai.

Ye technical indicators suggest karte hain ke gold ke liye bullish potential ab bhi bana hua hai. Agar gold buyers record h
Gold ne hafte ke aakhri din kuch recovery dikhayi aur Thursday ki zyada 1% girawat ka kuch hissa wapas pa liya, jo ke weekly low tak gaya tha. US Dollar ko abhi bhi raat bhar ke bounce ko faida uthane mein mushkil ho rahi hai, kyunki US mein kam interest rates ka imkaan hai. Short-term mein, gold ki technical outlook buyers ke favor mein hai jab tak triangle resistance mein nahi badal jata. Support, jo ab $2,470 par hai, barqarar hai. Pichle hafte gold ne parallel triangle breakout achieve kiya aur 14-day Relative Strength Index north ki taraf ja raha hai, jo 50 se upar hai.

Ye technical indicators suggest karte hain ke gold ke liye bullish potential ab bhi bana hua hai. Agar gold buyers record high $2,532 ko wapas haasil kar lete hain, to agla target $2,550 hoga. Agar price isse bhi aage barhti hai, to $2,600 level ko challenge kar sakti hai, jo ke triangle target $2,660 ke raste mein hai. Agar gold price correction wapas shuru hoti hai, to foran support $2,470 par hoga, jo ke triangle resistance se replace ho sakta hai. Iske baad $2,450 ka psychological barrier gold ke hopefuls ke liye madadgar ho sakta hai.

Asian trading mein markets cautious hain aur Jerome Powell ka Jackson Hole headquarters mein speech ka intezar kar rahe hain, jahan se naye signals milne ki umeed hai. Bank ke interest rate path, khaaskar labor market conditions ke easing signs ke sath, traders ke liye important hai. Risk outflows US government bonds ki demand ko badhate hain, jo Treasury bond yield ko across the curve push karta hai aur USD ko neeche khinchta hai. Greenback ne bhi Bank of Japan ke Governor Kazuo Ueda ke critical remarks ke baad USD/JPY selloff ka samna kiya. US Dollar ne Thursday ko major rivals ke khilaf ek saal ke low se strong rebound kiya, gold prices mein 1% correction ke baad, jo ke US S&P global business PMIs aur jobless claims data ke concerns ke wajah se tha. Traders Friday ko Powell ke Jackson Hole showdown ke baad repositioning kar rahe hain.
igh $2,532 ko wapas haasil kar lete hain, to agla target $2,550 hoga. Agar price isse bhi aage barhti hai, to $2,600 level ko challenge kar sakti hai, jo ke triangle target $2,660 ke raste mein hai. Agar gold price correction wapas shuru hoti hai, to foran support $2,470 par hoga, jo ke triangle resistance se replace ho sakta hai. Iske baad $2,450 ka psychological barrier gold ke hopefuls ke liye madadgar ho sakta hai.

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Asian trading mein markets cautious hain aur Jerome Powell ka Jackson Hole headquarters mein speech ka intezar kar rahe hain, jahan se naye signals milne ki umeed hai. Bank ke interest rate path, khaaskar labor market conditions ke easing signs ke sath, traders ke liye important hai. Risk outflows US government bonds ki demand ko badhate hain, jo Treasury bond yield ko across the curve push karta hai aur USD ko neeche khinchta hai. Greenback ne bhi Bank of Japan ke Governor Kazuo Ueda ke critical remarks ke baad USD/JPY selloff ka samna kiya. US Dollar ne Thursday ko major rivals ke khilaf ek saal ke low se strong rebound kiya, gold prices mein 1% correction ke baad, jo ke US S&P global business PMIs aur jobless claims data ke concerns ke wajah se tha. Traders Friday ko Powell ke Jackson Hole showdown ke baad repositioning kar rahe hain.

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Gold Weekly Forecast

Gold ne aik aur record high set karne ke baad pull back kiya lekin $2,500 reclaim kar liya. Technical outlook yeh suggest karta hai ke XAU/USD ka bullish bias near term mein qaim rahega. Investors agle haftay US inflation data par ghoor kareinge. Gold (XAU/USD) ne is haftay aik new all-time high ko touch karne ke baad lower correction dekha lekin Friday ko $2,500 ke key level se upar chad gaya. Agle haftay ke economic calendar mein US se key inflation data feature karega.

Gold ne aik aur record high post kiya

Pichlay hafta bullish note par khatam karne ke baad, Gold ne Monday ko aik consolidation phase mein dakhil hua aur din ko virtually unchanged close kiya. Federal Reserve (Fed) officials ke dovish comments ne Tuesday ko US Treasury bond yields ko lower stretch karne par majboor kiya, jis se XAU/USD ne aik naya record-high $2,531 ka set kiya.

“Agar anewala data dikhaye ke inflation target ki taraf sustainable tor par barh raha hai, to rates ko gradually lower karna theek hoga taake policy zyada restrictive na ban jaye,” Fed Governor Michelle Bowman ne kaha. Is dauran, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari ne The Wall Street Journal ko kaha ke September mein policy rate ko potentially cut karne par behas karna theek hoga.

Wednesday ko, US Bureau of Labor Statistics ne announce kiya ke benchmark revision ka preliminary estimate March 2024 ke total Nonfarm employment mein -818,000 (-0.5%) adjustment ko indicate karta hai. Din ke aakhri hise mein, Fed ke July 30-31 policy meeting ke minutes dikhate hain ke "vast majority" of policymakers ka khayal tha ke agar anewala data expectations ke mutabiq raha, to agle meeting mein policy ko ease karna appropriate hoga. Halanki Gold ne midweek mein apni bullish momentum ko qaim rakhne mein mushkilat ka samna kiya, lekin US Dollar (USD) ke selling pressure se ubarne mein nakami ke bawajood, yeh $2,500 ke upar stabilize hone mein kamyab raha.

Jab S&P Global ke data ne dikhaya ke business activity early August mein health pace se expand karte rahi, jab flash estimate of the Composite PMI 54.1 par aaya, to 10-year US T-bond yield ne recovery momentum hasil kiya aur USD ko foothold milne mein madad di. Is ke badle, XAU/USD ne south ki taraf rukh liya aur American trading hours mein $2,500 se neeche chala gaya.

Improving risk mood ne Thursday ke gains par USD ko build karna mushkil bana diya aur XAU/USD ko Friday ke European trading hours mein wapas $2,500 ke upar recover hone ka moka diya. Weekend se pehle, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell ki Jackson Hole Symposium mein speech ne USD par additional weight dala aur pair ko aik aur leg higher ki taraf janay ka raasta diya. Powell ne tasleem kiya ke waqt aagaya hai ke monetary policy ko adjust kiya jaye aur kaha ke wo "jo kuch kar sakte hain" wo karenge taake ek strong labor market ka support ho jabke price stability ki taraf mazid progress ki jaye.

Gold investors PCE inflation data ka intezar kar rahe hain

US economic calendar Monday ko July ke Durable Goods Orders data ko feature karega. Halankeh yeh data aam tor par market participants ke nazar mein nahi hota, magar agar yeh market expectation se bohot zyada differ kare, to yeh market reaction ko trigger kar sakta hai. Aik positive surprise US mein economic downturn ke khof ko kam kar sakta hai aur USD ko demand milne mein madad kar sakta hai.

Thursday ko, US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) second estimate of the annualized Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the second quarter release karega. Markets initial estimate of 2.8% mein koi changes expect nahi karte. Agar unexpected downward revision hota hai to yeh USD par weight daal sakta hai aur Gold mein aik leg higher ke liye raasta khol sakta hai with the immediate reaction.

BEA July ke Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data ko publish karega, jo Fed ka preferred gauge of inflation hai, Friday ko. Investors ke chances hain ke monthly core PCE Price Index, jo ke volatile items ke prices ko exclude karta hai aur base effects se distort nahi hota, par react karein. Core PCE Price Index ko monthly basis par 0.2% barhne ki forecast ki gayi hai. Kyun ke Powell ke latest comments ne suggest kiya ke policymakers ka focus ab zyada tar labor market par hai inflation se, to USD ko decisively barhne mein 0.4% ya us se zyada ka reading lena par sakta hai. Doosri taraf, agar reading market expectation ke barabar ya neeche aata hai, to Gold ko weekend mein support mil sakta hai.

Gold technical outlook

Daily chart par Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator 60 ke upar hai, jo yeh suggest karta hai ke bullish bias abhi bhi intact hai.



Round $2,500 figure (psychological level, mid-point of the ascending regression channel jo mid-February se aa raha hai) Gold ke liye aik pivot level ke tor par align karta hai. Agar Gold is level ko support ke tor par use karta hai, to $2,600 (psychological level) next resistance ke tor par dekha ja sakta hai before upper limit of the ascending channel at $2,620.

Agar Gold $2,500 ke upar stabilize hone mein nakam hota hai, to technical sellers interest show kar sakte hain. Is scenario mein, 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) ko next support ke tor par $2,455 dekha ja sakta hai before $2,400 (psychological level, static level, 50-day SMA) aur $2,370 (lower limit of the ascending channel, 100-day SMA).

Economic Indicator

Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), jo ke US Bureau of Economic Analysis ke zariye monthly basis par release hoti hai, woh changes measure karti hai jo ke consumers ke zariye United States (US) mein khareede gaye goods aur services ke prices mein hoti hai. PCE Price Index ko bhi Federal Reserve’s (Fed) ka preferred gauge of inflation kaha jata hai. MoM figure compare karta hai reference month ke goods ke prices ko previous month se. Core reading volatile food aur energy components ko exclude karti hai taake price pressures ka aik accurate measurement diya jaye. Generally, aik high reading US Dollar (USD) ke liye bullish hoti hai, jabke aik low reading bearish hoti hai.

Chaar musalsal trading sessions mein, sony ki qeemat upar ki taraf ubharti rahi jahan woh maqam-e-muqawamat $2420 per ounce par pohanch gayi analysis likhne ke waqt, dollar ki qeemat mein izafa hone se dabao ka samna kar rahi thi jab sarmayakaar ex-US President Donald Trump par huye qatal ki koshish ka asar maali bazaars par maloom kar rahe thay. Traders ko dar hai ke mazeed siyasi tashadud adam mustaqil aur bazar ki uthal puthal ko bharakaa sakta hai, halaan ke tajziya karnay walon ne note kiya ke hamlay ne Trump ke election jeetne ke chances ko barhawa diya hai.Isi dauran, sone ki qeemat ne jumme ko apna teesra musalsal haftawaar gain darj kiya, jabke America mein afsos ke sath inflation kam hone se Federal Reserve ke taraf se interest rates mein cut hone ki umeedein mazid mazboot ho gayi. Economic calendar ke natayij ke mutabiq... Guzishta hafta dikhaya ke America mein masarf ki qeematein June mein pehli baar chaar saalon mein gir gayi, jo ke Federal Reserve ke taraf se September mein interest rate cut hone ki umeedon ko mazid mazboot banata hai.Sarmayakaar ab Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell ke haaliye comments aur is hafte mazeed American economic reports ko dekh rahe hain taake mazeed rahnumayi hasil ho sake. Isi dauran, data ne ishara diya ke guzishta hafta Asia mein sone ki physical demand mein kami aayi jabke bartan ki unchi qeematon ne bazar mein ehtiyaat baratne ko badhawa diya.Sone ke bazaar ko mutasir karne wale asraat ke mutabiq... dollar ki qeemat safe haven demand ki buniyad par barh rahi hai. Electronic trading platforms ke mutabiq... dollar ki qeemat pehle 104.1 se neeche girne ke baad pehle martaba 104.2 tak barh gayi, jo ke June 3 ke baad se sabse kam satah tha. Weekend par Trump par hamlay ne keemati maaloomat ke mutabiq unke presidential election jeetne ke chances ko barhawa diya, jisne dollar ko upar dhakel diya.Trump ki policies, jaise ke sakht trade stance, lax regulations, aur proposed tax cuts, inflation ko barhawa dene ka imkaan hai. Isi dauran, traders ne September mein Federal Reserve ke taraf se US interest rates mein cut hone par 94% probability ke sath bet lagana jari rakha, jabke June ki masarf ki qeematein umeed se kam thi. Dollar board par mazid mazboot ho gaya, magar traders yen mein mazeed mumkina intervention ke bare mein hooshyar rahe.Dusri taraf, US 10-year Treasury bond yields Trump ke hamlay ki wajah se barh gayi. Trading ke mutabiq, 10-year US Treasury bond yields 4.2% se zyada barh gayi Monday ko, chaar mahine ke sabse kam satah se thori ubhaar lene ke baad, jabke US presidential candidate Donald Trump par hamlay ne unke November mein White House wapas jeetne ke chances ko barhawa diya. Markets ne Trump ki jeet ko Treasury bond yields ke liye bullish samjha kyunke unki policies ko tax cuts, immigration policy tightening aur import tariffs ke wajah se inflationary samjha gaya. Isi dauran, 10-year bond yield guzishta hafta pressure mein rahi, jabke US inflation ki kami ne Federal Reserve ke interest rate cuts par bet lagane ko barhawa diya.Majmoi taur par, Trump's assassination attempt ke baad US markets stable rahe. US stock futures, dollar aur Treasury bond yields Monday ko barh gayi jab markets ne weekend par ex-President Donald Trump par huye hamlay ka asar dekha, jo ke US political scene par sangin asar dal sakta hai. Hamlay mein ek attendee aur gunman ki maut ho gayi, aur do doosray critical condition mein thay, jabke Trump ek goli se zakhmi ho gaye.Traders ko dar hai ke mazeed tashadud siyasi adam mustaqil aur bazar ki uthal puthal ko bharakaa sakta hai, halaan ke tajziya karnay walon ne note kiya ke hamlay ne Trump ke November mein White House wapas jeetne ke chances ko barhawa diya hai.Aaj ke liye sone ki qeemat ki peshgoi: Neeche diye gaye rozana chart par performance ke mutabiq, sone ki qeemat ek mazboot upward path par hai jo $2400 per ounce ki psychological resistance ke upar move hone se supported hai, aur mazeed gains maqam-e-muqawamat $2420 aur $2435 per ounce tak mazeed technical indicators ko strong levels of saturation with buying ki taraf move karengi. Profit-taking sales tab tak nahi hongi jab tak US dollar ki qeemat recover nahi hoti aur geopolitical tensions calm nahi hoti, jo ke sone ke haal ke gains ke sabse numayan asraat