Gold

sone ki qeemat ne jumme ko apna teesra musalsal haftawaar gain darj kiya, jabke America mein afsos ke sath inflation kam hone se Federal Reserve ke taraf se interest rates mein cut hone ki umeedein mazid mazboot ho gayi. Economic calendar ke natayij ke mutabiq... Guzishta hafta dikhaya ke America mein masarf ki qeematein June mein pehli baar chaar saalon mein gir gayi, jo ke Federal Reserve ke taraf se September mein interest rate cut hone ki umeedon ko mazid mazboot banata hai.Sarmayakaar ab Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell ke haaliye comments aur is hafte mazeed American economic reports ko dekh rahe hain taake mazeed rahnumayi hasil ho sake. Isi dauran, data ne ishara diya ke guzishta hafta Asia mein sone ki physical demand mein kami aayi jabke bartan ki unchi qeematon ne bazar mein ehtiyaat baratne ko badhawa diya.Sone ke bazaar ko mutasir karne wale asraat ke mutabiq... dollar ki qeemat safe haven demand ki buniyad par barh rahi hai. Electronic trading platforms ke mutabiq... dollar ki qeemat pehle 104.1 se neeche girne ke baad pehle martaba 104.2 tak barh gayi, jo ke June 3 ke baad se sabse kam satah tha. Weekend par Trump par hamlay ne keemati maaloomat ke mutabiq unke presidential election jeetne ke chances ko barhawa diya, jisne dollar ko upar dhakel diya.Trump ki policies, jaise ke sakht trade stance, lax regulations, aur proposed tax cuts, inflation ko barhawa dene ka imkaan hai. Isi dauran, traders ne September mein Federal Reserve ke taraf se US interest rates mein cut hone par 94% probability ke sath bet lagana jari rakha, jabke June ki masarf ki qeematein umeed se kam thi. Dollar board par mazid mazboot ho gaya, magar traders yen mein mazeed mumkina intervention ke bare mein hooshyar rahe.Dusri taraf, US 10-year Treasury bond yields Trump ke hamlay ki wajah se barh gayi. Trading ke mutabiq, 10-year US Treasury bond yields 4.2% se zyada barh gayi Monday ko, chaar mahine ke sabse kam satah se thori ubhaar lene ke baad, jabke US presidential candidate Donald Trump par hamlay ne unke November mein White House wapas jeetne ke chances ko barhawa diya. Markets ne Trump ki jeet ko Treasury bond yields ke liye bullish samjha kyunke unki policies ko tax cuts, immigration policy tightening aur import tariffs ke wajah se inflationary samjha gaya. Isi dauran, 10-year bond yield guzishta hafta pressure mein rahi, jabke US inflation ki kami ne Federal Reserve ke interest rate cuts par bet lagane ko barhawa diya.Majmoi taur par, Trump's assassination attempt ke baad US markets stable rahe. US stock futures, dollar aur Treasury bond yields Monday ko barh gayi jab markets ne weekend par ex-President Donald Trump par huye hamlay ka asar dekha, jo ke US political scene par sangin asar dal sakta hai. Hamlay mein ek attendee aur gunman ki maut ho gayi, aur do doosray critical condition mein thay, jabke Trump ek goli se zakhmi ho gaye.Traders ko dar hai ke mazeed tashadud siyasi adam mustaqil aur bazar ki uthal puthal ko bharakaa sakta hai, halaan ke tajziya karnay walon ne note kiya ke hamlay ne Trump ke November mein White House wapas jeetne ke chances ko barhawa diya hai.Aaj ke liye sone ki qeemat ki peshgoi: Neeche diye gaye rozana chart par performance ke mutabiq, sone ki qeemat ek mazboot upward path par hai jo $2400 per ounce ki psychological resistance ke upar move hone se supported hai, aur mazeed gains maqam-e-muqawamat $2420 aur $2435 per ounce tak mazeed technical indicators ko strong levels of saturation with buying ki taraf move karengi. Profit-taking sales tab tak nahi hongi jab tak US dollar ki qeemat recover nahi hoti aur geopolitical tensions calm nahi hoti, jo ke sone ke haal ke gains ke sabse numayan asraat hain. Filhaal, sone ke

Gold ki qeemat $2500/oz par wapis aayi hai jab ke ek lambi intezar ke baad retracement jo Thursday ki US session mein hui thi. Ek majmooiat me mazboot US Dollar, barhti hui US Yields aur Powell ke Jackson Hole Symposium mein address se pehle profit-taking ne isme kirdar ada kiya.

Market ke shirakatdar apne aap ko Fed Chair Jerome Powell ke intehai intezar kiye gaye speech ke liye position kar rahe the. Bohat logon ki umeed thi ke Powell September ke rate cuts ko confirm karega, magar Wednesday ko US jobs data mein downward revision ke baad, market ke shirakatdar samajhte hain ke September mein rate cut ek faisla shuda baat hai. Ab sawal yeh hai ke Powell ke remarks ka market par kya asar hoga?

Jis tarah halat hain, US Dollar ki kamzori aur pichlay hafte ke akhri din par Gold ki barhati hui qeemat is baat ki nishani hai ke September ke rate cut ke bare mein aksar umeedain shayad pehle se hi price mein shamil hain. Bohat se Fed policymakers ne kal yeh tasdeeq ki ke woh September mein rate cuts ko support karte hain aur iske bawajood Gold US session mein struggle karta raha. Yeh is baat ka ishara hai ke September ka rate cut shayad hissa ban chuka hai?

Yeh mera sochna hai Powell ke remarks se pehle aur isliye mujhe uske speech ka asar par shak hai.

Aaj aur bhi bohat se Federal Reserve policymakers ka docket par hona darshata hai ke volatility abhi bhi card par hai. Magar direction ke hawale se, mein Powell ke remarks se koi khaas tabdeeli ki umeed nahi rakhta. Mein kisi bhi 50 bps cut ke zikr par tawajju doonga jo ke kuch din pehle market mein favour mein price ho raha tha. Filhal, futures mein 100 bps se thori kam cuts ka price lag raha hai jo 2024 ke akhir tak hoga.

Technical Analysis Gold (XAU/USD)

Technical standpoint se dekha jaye to Gold mein European session mein rebound kaafi impressive raha hai jab ke precious metal ne $2500/oz handle par peak kar liya. Kal ka dip shayad ek precursor tha jis ne bulls ko reload karne diya aur dusron ko behtar price par entry lene di.

Yeh shayad aaj subha ke recovery ke speed ko wazeh kar sakta hai jab ke Fed Chair Powell stage par anay wala hai.

Kal ka bada bearish engulfing candle ne support talash ki 2472 ke key area par, phir buyers ne wapas aake price ko uper push kiya. Mein Monday se hi aise pullback ka intezar kar raha tha jab ke gold ne $2500/oz mark par high ground hold kiya tha.

Given ke Gold continue karta hai print karna ATH, aakhri key levels talash karna mushkil ho raha hai. Aaj ke US session mein foran resistance ho sakta hai 2514 aur 2531.66 par jo ke is week ka high hai ab tak.

Aaj kal ke dour mein sone ke qeemat ka manzar thoda stability ki taraf ja raha hai, ek significant resistance level 2,464.49 ko break karne ki koshish ke baad. Market ko dekhte hue yeh zaroori hai ke hum us wajah ka tajzia karen jis ke bajaye sone ke prices apni upar ki taraf journey ko maintain karne mein nakam rahe, khas tor par jab isne is important point ko test kiya, jo ke bohot se traders ke Liye ek psychological aur technical barrier ka kaam karta hai.
Sone ki price action ab aur bhi ziata ahem ho gayi hai kyun ke yeh wider economic trends ko reflect karti hai, jin mein inflationary pressures, geopolitical uncertainties, aur interest rates mein tabdeeli shamil hain. Recent stability phase yeh suggest karti hai ke traders apne faisle bade soch samajh kar kar rahe hain, shayad wo clear economic signals ka intezaar kar rahe hain jo ke agle qadam ka taayun kar sakti hain. Jabke filhal yeh metal apnea resistance level se neeche position mein hai, yeh dekhna zaroori hai ke yeh established support levels ke ird gird kaise behave karta hai.

Identified support zone jo ke 2,439.45 aur 2,425.09 ke darmiyan hai, market ke players ke liye bohot important hai. Ek successful upward reversal ke liye yeh zaroori hai ke sona in levels se upar rahe. Historical performance yeh dikhati hai ke jab prices established support levels par aati hain aur mazbooti dikhati hain, toh aksar yeh strong buying interest se pehle hoti hai. Agar sona is support zone se successfully rebound kar sakta hai, toh hum sirf recent resistance se break nahi dekhenge balki investors ke darmiyan naye josh-o-kharosh ka izhar bhi hoga, jo ke market fundamentals se driven hoga.

Agar sona resistance level 2,464.49 ko breach karne mein kamyab hota hai, toh yeh ek ziyada bullish scenario ka rasta khol sakta hai, jahan prices aur aage tak bhar sakti hain. Iske baraks, agar sona support zone ke neeche jata hai, toh traders ke darmiyan bearish trends ke baare mein concerns uth sakte hain. Is liye, ehtiyaat se dekhna zar

sone ki qeemat ne jumme ko apna teesra musalsal haftawaar gain darj kiya, jabke America mein afsos ke sath inflation kam hone se Federal Reserve ke taraf se interest rates mein cut hone ki umeedein mazid mazboot ho gayi. Economic calendar ke natayij ke mutabiq... Guzishta hafta dikhaya ke America mein masarf ki qeematein June mein pehli baar chaar saalon mein gir gayi, jo ke Federal Reserve ke taraf se September mein interest rate cut hone ki umeedon ko mazid mazboot banata hai.Sarmayakaar ab Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell ke haaliye comments aur is hafte mazeed American economic reports ko dekh rahe hain taake mazeed rahnumayi hasil ho sake. Isi dauran, data ne ishara diya ke guzishta hafta Asia mein sone ki physical demand mein kami aayi jabke bartan ki unchi qeematon ne bazar mein ehtiyaat baratne ko badhawa diya.Sone ke bazaar ko mutasir karne wale asraat ke mutabiq... dollar ki qeemat safe haven demand ki buniyad par barh rahi hai. Electronic trading platforms ke mutabiq... dollar ki qeemat pehle 104.1 se neeche girne ke baad pehle martaba 104.2 tak barh gayi, jo ke June 3 ke baad se sabse kam satah tha. Weekend par Trump par hamlay ne keemati maaloomat ke mutabiq unke presidential election jeetne ke chances ko barhawa diya, jisne dollar ko upar dhakel diya.Trump ki policies, jaise ke sakht trade stance, lax regulations, aur proposed tax cuts, inflation ko barhawa dene ka imkaan hai. Isi dauran, traders ne September mein Federal Reserve ke taraf se US interest rates mein cut hone par 94% probability ke sath bet lagana jari rakha, jabke June ki masarf ki qeematein umeed se kam thi. Dollar board par mazid mazboot ho gaya, magar traders yen mein mazeed mumkina intervention ke bare mein hooshyar rahe.Dusri taraf, US 10-year Treasury bond yields Trump ke hamlay ki wajah se barh gayi. Trading ke mutabiq, 10-year US Treasury bond yields 4.2% se zyada barh gayi Monday ko, chaar mahine ke sabse kam satah se thori ubhaar lene ke baad, jabke US presidential candidate Donald Trump par hamlay ne unke November mein White House wapas jeetne ke chances ko barhawa diya. Markets ne Trump ki jeet ko Treasury bond yields ke liye bullish samjha kyunke unki policies ko tax cuts, immigration policy tightening aur import tariffs ke wajah se inflationary samjha gaya. Isi dauran, 10-year bond yield guzishta hafta pressure mein rahi, jabke US inflation ki kami ne Federal Reserve ke interest rate cuts par bet lagane ko barhawa diya.Majmoi taur par, Trump's assassination attempt ke baad US markets stable rahe. US stock futures, dollar aur Treasury bond yields Monday ko barh gayi jab markets ne weekend par ex-President Donald Trump par huye hamlay ka asar dekha, jo ke US political scene par sangin asar dal sakta hai. Hamlay mein ek attendee aur gunman ki maut ho gayi, aur do doosray critical condition mein thay, jabke Trump ek goli se zakhmi ho gaye.Traders ko dar hai ke mazeed tashadud siyasi adam mustaqil aur bazar ki uthal puthal ko bharakaa sakta hai, halaan ke tajziya karnay walon ne note kiya ke hamlay ne Trump ke November mein White House wapas jeetne ke chances ko barhawa diya hai.Aaj ke liye sone ki qeemat ki peshgoi: Neeche diye gaye rozana chart par performance ke mutabiq, sone ki qeemat ek mazboot upward path par hai jo $2400 per ounce ki psychological resistance ke upar move hone se supported hai, aur mazeed gains maqam-e-muqawamat $2420 aur $2435 per ounce tak mazeed technical indicators ko strong levels of saturation with buying ki taraf move karengi. Profit-taking sales tab tak nahi hongi jab tak US dollar ki qeemat recover nahi hoti aur geopolitical tensions calm nahi hoti, jo ke sone ke haal ke gains ke sabse numayan

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Gold ko $2,520-$2,527 ke upar acceptance ki zaroorat hai taake nayi up leg shuru ho, jab ke markets triggers ka intezaar kar rahe hain.

Gold Tuesday ko apne support ke upar hi mandlate hue nazar aya, jo ke top trendline (blue) se represent hota hai jo ke recent consolidation phase ko cover kar raha hai. Aaj ka low $2,504 tha, jo ke is line ko phir se test karne mein successful raha, aur uske baad ek bounce dekha gaya. Yeh developing uptrend mein strength ki nishani hai, khaaskar us previous pullback ke muqable mein, jo ke symmetrical triangle (purple) consolidation pattern ke top boundary line par teen din pehle support mila tha.

Gold strong close karne ke liye tayaar hai, din ke price range ke upper quarter mein, is waqt likhne ke waqt. Isliye, ho sakta hai ke yeh din bullish doji hammer candlestick pattern ke saath khatam kare. Aur yeh aaj apna doosra sabse uncha daily closing price record kar sakta hai. Kal ka closing price $2,518 hai jo ke ab tak ka record daily close hai.

Technical Analysis

Kal ke bullish attempts ke ba-wajood $2,527 se aage badhne mein nakam rahe, sellers ne apna mind bana liya ke thodi si kismat azmai jaye aur buyers ne jo bacha tha woh ikattha karna shuru kar diya.

Ek aur wajah yeh hai ke smart money aksar price correction ke baad discounted area mein khareedna pasand karti hai, jo ke iss surat mein $2,499-$2,496 aur thoda neeche $2,482 ke aas paas dekha ja raha hai.

Yahan yeh zikr karna zaroori hai ke agar factors jo ke gold ke bullish rally ko chala rahe hain, agar unmein softening signals aa jate hain, toh correction aur gehera ho sakta hai aur $2,464-$2,442 tak ja sakta hai.



Doosri taraf, agar $2,499-$2,496 ke upar consolidation hoti hai toh yeh positive samjha jayega aur $2,520-$2,527 ke upar successful break prevailing bullish momentum ko resume kar dega jo ke swing high $2,532 ko retest karna target karega jisse ke second up leg shuru hogi jo ke pehle $2,543 aur phir $2,556 par hogi.

Grinding Higher

Gold ke liye path of least resistance ab bhi upar hai. Yeh ek bullish breakout trigger kar chuka hai symmetrical triangle pattern ka August 16 ko aur tab se zyada tar consolidate hota raha hai aur dheere dheere mazbooti ke asar dikhane laga hai. Yeh bhi notice karein ke purple 20-Day MA rising hai aur top triangle line (purple) ke upar breakout ke qareeb hai. Orange 50-Day MA July 25 (C) par internal uptrend line ke saath converge hui thi aur yeh trendline ko closely track karti hai. Yeh humein yeh batata hai ke inn moving averages par tawajju dein jab gold higher prices ki taraf progress kare.

Triangle Target Points to 2,605

Kayi initial upside targets hain jo tawajju ke layak hain. Lekin aayiye shuruaat karte hain higher initial target se jo ke symmetrical triangle pattern se derived hai. Zyada tar consolidation patterns ke saath, hum pattern ki height ko measure kar sakte hain jab yeh poori tarah form ho jata hai, phir is distance ko breakout level par add kar sakte hain. Gold ke liye, yeh pattern se derived minimum anticipated target $2,605 par hai. Iske ilawa, do earlier target levels hain jo ke tawajju ke layak hain, $2,543 aur $2,566 par.

Support Above 24.71 Needs to be Maintained

Chahe chart kitna bhi bullish lag raha ho gold ke liye hamesha ek pullback ka potential hota hai jab ke higher prices attempt kiye jate hain. Near-term support pichle hafte ka low $24.71 par hai. Yeh ek minor pullback bhi hai jo ke short-term trend ke rising higher swing lows aur higher swing highs ka hissa hai jo ke July swing low se shuru hota hai.

Gold Price Move Overlook
Gold ki price behavior analysis is waqt discussion mein hai. Aaj Gold ne significant rise dekha hai lekin abhi tak apne intended target tak pohanchna baaqi hai. Chart dikhata hai ke gold ne resistance level 2456 ko break kiya aur ab yeh 2465 ke aas paas trade kar raha hai. Isi doran, RSI indicator apni range ke beech mein move kar raha hai aur downward point kar raha hai, jabke Awesome Oscillator (AO) sell signal de raha hai, aur price ab bhi pichlay din ki trading range ke andar hai. Sab indicators yeh suggest karte hain ke price mein potential decline ho sakta hai. Support level 2433 ko test karna mumkin hai, lekin iske sath yeh bhi chance hai ke price 2456 level se rebound kar jaye. Gold ne bullish boundary jo ascending blue channel ke 2450.00 ke aas paas thi, usko successfully break kiya aur further bullish momentum dekha gaya. Aaj, yeh local monthly high 2474.00 tak pohancha, lekin initial contact ke baad growth ruk gayi.



Is ke ilawa, ek average correction ab tak nahi hui, jo ke iski likelihood ko barha deti hai. Ek sell signal short-term support 2459.00 ko break karega, jo ke significant decline ka lead kar sakta hai. Abhi price hourly chart par ek ascending channel ke andar move kar rahi hai. Aaj subah price downward trend mein thi, aur mujhe laga ke yeh ascending channel ke lower boundary tak gir sakti hai. Lekin yeh slightly target miss kar gayi, is liye main expect karta hoon ke price apna downward movement continue karegi aur eventually lower boundary 2457 tak pohanch jayegi. Jab yeh point pohancha, to pair ka decline ruk sakta hai, aur price reverse hote hue 2491 ki taraf ja sakti hai. Trading week ke start se ek wave of growth chal rahi hai, jahan price upper boundary jo ke triangle ke 2469 area ke aas paas thi, usko touch kar rahi hai. Is point se local decline 2419 ke aas paas ya sideways movement ho sakti hai.

Fundamental point of view se, interest rate cuts ki rumors currency ki value ko kam karengi. Zyada tar investors aur traders market conditions ke bare me clarity ka intezar karte hain. Yeh clear hai ke Fed dheere dheere interest rates ko kam kar raha hai aur USD assets ko risky aur avoid karne ki advise de raha hai jab tak US recession clearly nahi aata. Fed ka cycle 2001 ke incident ki tarah hai, world economic growth decline ki taraf jati hai aur USD ki value ko affect karti hai. Isliye, estimate yeh hai ke USD abhi bhi kamzor hone ka potential rakhta hai aur XAUUSD ko bhi strongly bullish bana sakta hai. Ek brief fundamental discussion ke taur pe, bearish opportunity abhi bhi ASIA session ke liye valid hai kyunki 2473.93 ka RBS level buyers ke entry ke liye sabse nazdeek hai.
Iske ilawa, H4 monitoring ke mutabiq, agar Asian session me koi naya ATH nahi hota, toh sellers short-term opportunities ka faida utha sakte hain. Short-term opportunities ke sath RVI already sell signal level par hai aur price crossing ka confirmation intazar kar raha hai. Fundamental perspective se, Fed ki rate cut ki rumors USD par additional pressure dalengi aur XAUUSD ko aur strengthen karengi. Lekin, market abhi bhi US economy ke recession ke certainty ka intezar kar rahi hai, jo gold trading me additional volatility add karegi.

Technically, aapka 2473.93 ka RBS level ka observation bilkul sahi hai. Yeh ek critical level hai jisko traders ko dhyan me rakhna chahiye, utsalar agar Asian session me koi naya ATH nahi hota. Sellers ke liye short-term corrections ka faida uthane ka opportunity interesting strategy ho sakti hai, saktilar jab RVI sell signal dikha raha haihai

**US Dollar ki Interest Rate Pause ne Gold Prices ko Mazeed Oonchaiyon Tak Pohnchaya**

US dollar ki interest rate pause ki wajah se gold prices mazeed oonchaiyon ko chhu gayi, jo $2344 per ounce ka resistance level tha, jo ke lagbhag do hafton ka sabse ooncha level hai jab yeh analysis likha gaya. Mazeed faida filhal ruk gaya kyun ke investors ab American economic data ka intezaar kar rahe hain aur Federal Reserve ke officials ke bayanaat ka jo US interest rates ke raaste ka pata denge. Ahm events mein Federal Reserve ke Chairman Jerome Powell ka taqreer, FOMC meeting minutes ka release Wednesday ko, aur US non-farm payrolls report ka Friday ko ana shamil hain.

Iss duration ke dauran, kuch data releases ne gold prices ko support diya, jaise ke ISM Manufacturing PMI ne June mein lagatar teesri dafa expectations se kam perform kiya, jo ke US factory input prices mein kamzori ka ishara tha aur jo ke inflation ko barqarar rakh sakta hai. Europe mein, European Central Bank ke President Christine Lagarde ne kaha ke central bank ko 2% inflation target tak pohanchne mein mazeed waqt lagay ga, aur filhal koi interest rate cuts ka irada nahi hai.

Gold market par asar andaz hone wale factors mein US dollar index ka Tuesday ko 105.9 ke aas paas stable rehna shamil hai, jo ke strong Treasury yields se support ho raha hai. Ye stability mazeed government borrowing ke potential aur Donald Trump ke possible doosre term ke natijay mein aayi hai. Trading ke hawale se, US 10-year Treasury yield 4.45% ke kareeb hai, jo ke mahine mein sabse ooncha level hai. Monday ko, US dollar pressure mein tha jab ke American manufacturing activity mein tez downtrend ne Federal Reserve ke interest rates cut karne ke maqooliyat ko mazid barhawa diya. Forex trading mein, US dollar ne kuch nuqsaan euro, British pound, aur Australian dollar ke muqable mein reverse kiya, jab ke New Zealand dollar, yuan, aur yen ke muqable mein apni taqat barqarar rakhi. Japanese currency ne 38 saalon ka sabse neecha level chhoda, jab ke carry trades mazid support ho rahe hain.

Gold market par doosra asar US 10-year Treasury yields ka tha jo ek mahine ke high ke kareeb hai.

Trading ke hawale se, Tuesday ko US 10-year Treasury bonds yield 4.44% ke kareeb aa gaya, lekin abhi bhi ek mahine ke high ke kareeb tha, jab ke pichlay haftay ke debates aur Supreme Court ke faislay, jo ke pehle presidents ke liye mazeed immunity diye jane par focus thay, former President Donald Trump ke doosre term ko support karte hain. Pehle presidents ke doosre terms ko inflationary maana gaya hai, jo ke tax cuts, sakhte immigration policies, aur increased import tariffs se fueled hote hain. Is dauran, investors Federal Reserve ke monetary policy outlook ka bhi tajziya kar rahe hain, jo ke May ke kamzor PCE inflation readings aur June ke sabse kamzor ISM manufacturing PMI ki waja se hua.

**XAU/USD Fundamentals aur Technical Outlook**

Sunehri metal ne Tuesday ko girawat dekhi, jo ke Monday ke $2,288 ke significant low se halki recovery ke baad aayi. Yeh downward trend mostly Federal Reserve (Fed) ke latest statements ke wajah se hai, jo ke inflation concerns ke bawajood interest rate cuts par cautious stance dikhate hain. Fed ka yeh indication ke woh higher interest rates ko ek lambay waqt tak barqarar rakh sakte hain, US dollar ko mazid majboot kar sakta hai, jo ke gold prices par downward pressure daal raha hai.

**XAU/USD ke Fundamentals:**

Boston Fed President Susan Collins ne recently kaha hai ke lower interest rate environment ki taraf ka raasta lamba hoga. CME Group’s FedWatch tool ke mutabiq, financial markets pehli rate cut ki umeed September se pehle nahi rakhte, aur saal ke end tak do quarter-point reductions ki umeed hai. Lekin, Fed Governor Christopher Waller ne additional rate hikes ki zaroorat par shak ka izhaar kiya hai, keh kar ke unhein koi aur convincing data chahiye pehle ke woh kisi bhi cuts ke haq mein ho sakein.

Fed ke cautious approach ka market sentiment par asar ho raha hai, jo ke gold ki performance ko impact kar raha hai. Inflation aur economic stability ke ongoing uncertainty ko dekhte hue, aane wale economic data ka nazar rakhna zaroori hai, jo future Fed policies aur gold prices ko shape karenge.

**Daily Time Frame Technical Outlook:**

Agar daily close June 7 ke low $2,286 ke neeche hota hai, to yeh ek significant pullback ko trigger kar sakta hai. Aisa hone se ‘dark cloud cover’ pattern ban sakta hai, jo ke XAU/USD ke aur girne ka signal dega before koi substantial rally resume ho. Relative Strength Index (RSI), jo abhi bullish territory mein hai, lekin lower trend kar raha hai. Agar RSI 50-midline ke neeche girti hai, to yeh gold prices mein additional declines ka signal de sakta hai.

Sunehri metal ka pehla resistance April 12 ke high $2,431 par hai, uske baad all-time high $2,450 par. In levels ke upar break karne se bullish trend ka indication mil sakta hai, lekin current market sentiment aur technical indicators yeh suggest karte hain ke kuch aur. Agar $2,400 ke neeche retreat hota hai, to XAU/USD ko May 13 ke low $2,331 aur subsequently May 8 ke low $2,302 tak expose kiya ja sakta hai.

European Central Bank ke President Christine Lagarde ne kaha ke central bank ko 2% inflation target tak pohanchne mein mazeed waqt lagay ga, aur filhal koi interest rate cuts ka irada nahi hai. Gold market par asar andaz hone wale factors mein US dollar index ka Tuesday ko 105.9 ke aas paas stable rehna shamil hai, jo ke strong Treasury yields se support ho raha hai. Ye stability mazeed government borrowing ke potential aur Donald Trump ke possible doosre term ke natijay mein aayi hai. Trading ke hawale se, US 10-year Treasury yield 4.45% ke kareeb hai, jo ke mahine mein sabse ooncha level hai. Monday ko, US dollar pressure mein tha jab ke American manufacturing activity mein tez downtrend ne Federal Reserve ke interest rates cut karne ke maqoliyat ko mazid barhawa diya. Forex trading mein, US dollar ne kuch nuqsaan euro, British pound, aur Australian dollar ke muqable mein reverse kiya, jab ke New Zealand dollar, yuan, aur yen ke muqable mein apni taqat barqarar rakhi. Japanese currency ne 38 saalon ka sabse neecha level chhoda, jab ke carry trades mazid support ho rahe hain. Gold market par doosra asar US 10-year Treasury yields ka tha jo ek mahine ke high ke kareeb hai. Trading ke hawale se, Tuesday ko US 10-year Treasury bonds yield 4.44% ke kareeb aa gaya, lekin abhi bhi ek mahine ke high ke kareeb tha, jab ke pichlay haftay ke debates aur Supreme Court ke faislay, jo ke pehle presidents ke liye mazeed immunity diye jane par focus thay, former President Donald Trump ke doosre term ko support karte hain. Pehle presidents ke doosre terms ko inflationary maana gaya hai, jo ke tax cuts, sakhte immigration policies, aur increased import tariffs se fueled hote hain. Is dauran, investors Federal Reserve ke monetary policy outlook ka bhi tajziy

Gold Price Action Analysis
Gold ki price action analysis karte hue, aaj hum 2482 support zone ke neeche consolidation ka zikr karenge. Ye zone pehle ek local high tha, aur 2469 level ka breach hona bhi zaroori hai. H1 chart par sabse interesting developments dekhnay ko mil rahi hain. Kal main ne 2502 zone ko highlight kiya tha, lekin ye range sirf din ke akhir mein effective hui. Unfortunately, meri initial predictions ghalat sabit hui, jo kafi disappointing hai kyunki mera maqsad error-free trading achieve karna hai. Zigzag pattern analysis ke mutabiq, sirf 2469 ke neeche breakdown hone par hi bearish zigzag formation ki tasdeeq hogi. Jab tak aisa nahi hota, decline ko sirf ek pullback samjha ja sakta hai, jahan 2483-2478 area drop ke liye ek potential reference point ho sakta hai, jis ke baad rebound attempt ka bhi imkan hai. Price is point ke neeche gir sakti hai, khas tor par aaj ke ziada tar downward movement ko dekhte hue.



Ye situation mujhe ye sochne par majboor karti hai ke ho sakta hai ek upward push aaye. Aaj ke decline mein dollar ki performance bhi kaafi aham kirdar ada kar rahi hai. Filhal mere paas koi specific immediate objectives nahi hain, magar main ye possibility zaroor dekhta hoon ke price 2530 ke upar ja sakti hai. Agar false breakout hota hai, to main un halat mein selling ko contemplate karunga. Hourly chart ko dekhte hue, price inverted triangle pattern mein nazar aa rahi hai. Aaj subah, pair ne decline experience kiya, aur triangle ke lower boundary par, jo ke 2496 level hai, aa gaya. Is point par downward movement ruk gaya, aur main yeh expect karta hoon ke shayad ek reversal ho, jahan se price rise karna shuru kare. Agar ye reversal hota hai, to cost triangle ki upper boundary ki taraf, jo ke 2529 level ke kareeb hai, barh sakti hai.

Sone ke bazaar ko mutasir karne wale asraat ke mutabiq... dollar ki qeemat safe haven demand ki buniyad par barh rahi hai. Electronic trading platforms ke mutabiq... dollar ki qeemat pehle 104.1 se neeche girne ke baad pehle martaba 104.2 tak barh gayi, jo ke June 3 ke baad se sabse kam satah tha. Weekend par Trump par hamlay ne keemati maaloomat ke mutabiq unke presidential election jeetne ke chances ko barhawa diya, jisne dollar ko upar dhakel diya.Trump ki policies, jaise ke sakht trade stance, lax regulations, aur proposed tax cuts, inflation ko barhawa dene ka imkaan hai. Isi dauran, traders ne September mein Federal Reserve ke taraf se US interest rates mein cut hone par 94% probability ke sath bet lagana jari rakha, jabke June ki masarf ki qeematein umeed se kam thi. Dollar board par mazid mazboot ho gaya, magar traders yen mein mazeed mumkina intervention ke bare mein hooshyar rahe. Dusri taraf, US 10-year Treasury bond yields Trump ke hamlay ki wajah se barh gayi. Trading ke mutabiq, 10-year US Treasury bond yields 4.2% se zyada barh gayi Monday ko, chaar mahine ke sabse kam satah se thori ubhaar lene ke baad, jabke US presidential candidate Donald Trump par hamlay ne unke November mein White House wapas jeetne ke chances ko barhawa diya. Markets ne Trump ki jeet ko Treasury bond yields ke liye bullish samjha kyunke unki policies ko tax cuts, immigration policy tightening aur import tariffs ke wajah se inflationary samjha gaya. Isi dauran, 10-year bond yield guzishta hafta pressure mein rahi, jabke US inflation ki kami ne Federal Reserve ke interest rate cuts par bet lagane ko barhawa diya. Majmoi taur par, Trump's assassination attempt ke baad US markets stable rahe. US stock futures, dollar aur Treasury bond yields Monday ko barh gayi jab markets ne weekend par ex-President Donald Trump par huye hamlay ka asar dekha, jo ke US political scene par sangin asar dal sakta hai. Hamlay mein ek attendee aur gunman ki maut ho gayi, aur do doosray critical condition mein thay, jabke Trump ek goli se zakhmi ho gaye.Traders ko dar hai ke mazeed tashadud siyasi adam maqil aur bazar ki uthal puthal ko bharakaa sakta hai, halaan ke tajziya karnay walon ne note kiya ke hamlay ne Trump ke November mein White House wapas jeetne ke chances ko barhawa diya hai.Aaj ke liye sone. ki qeemat ki peshgoi: Neeche diye gaye rozana chart par performance ke mutabiq, sone ki qeemat ek mazboot upward path par hai jo $2400 per ounce ki psychological resistance ke upar move hone se supported hai, aur mazeed gains maqam-e-muqawamat $2420 aur $2435 per ounce tak mazeed technical indicators

Shuruati perhaps mein, 2424 support level ke neeche break ka anticipation tha, jo ke ho gaya hai. Dusre perhaps mein, is broken level ko test kiya gaya aur yeh test confirm bhi ho gaya hai. Magar, teesra perhaps, jo consolidation ko darshata hai, abhi tak nahi hua. Jab consolidation hoga, to downward trend dobara shuru ho sakta hai, jo resistance ki taraf le jaa sakta hai. Jab tak consolidation nahi hota, upward trend ka outcome undecided hai, aur sirf waqt hi batayega. Isliye, medium-term strategy abhi bhi relevant hai. Main consolidation ka wait kar raha hoon, jo ke ek aur upward move ke zaroorat hai.
Pehle humne hourly time frame discuss kiya, lekin ab daily chart par nazar dalte hain.

Daily time frame (D1) par, ek sideways wedge bana tha, jahan gold 76.43 par trade kar raha tha. 84.09 se rebound karne ke baad, resistance line se consistent wave of decline shuru hui, jo gold ko robust downward movement ke saath gap ke saath le gayi. Channel ke lower limit ki ummeed nahi thi, jo last week ke closing levels 74.09 se further decline ka signal hai. Yahan price support line ko hit karegi, jahan main rebound aur upward correction ki ummeed kar raha hoon.

Medium-term perspective se, continued decline ka indication hai, aur gold market opening se decrease honay ke liye taiyar hai. 2353.39 par price minimum TF tak pahunch gayi aur upward adjust hui. Price green zone ko cross karegi aur growth ke dauran red zone ko support level ke roop mein use karegi. Yeh MA resistance level ko break karegi, jahan red line 2390.74 par hai, aur mid-trend level tak rise karegi, jahan black line 2412.74 par hai. Price is mid-TF level (black line) ko bhi break kar sakti hai aur double top level 2429.19 tak move kar sakti hai.

H4 time frame par, gold bullish tendencies dikhata hai. 5 SMA aur 20 SMA ne 2385 level par cross kiya, jabke 200 SMA 2372 level par hai. Yeh crossover gold ke liye strong upward trend ko signal karta hai. Pichle kuch dinon ki market fluctuations ko bhool jaiye; gold kal 2457 level tak pohch gaya, jaisa maine anticipate kiya tha. Aaj, gold 2470 level ko test karne ke liye tayaar hai. Ek strong bullish trend aa raha hai, jo gold ko is mahine 2500-level milestone ke liye prepare kar raha hai. Yahan kuch strategies hain jo potential buying opportunities ke liye hain

saalon mein gir gayi, jo ke Federal Reserve ke taraf se September mein interest rate cut hone ki umeedon ko mazid mazboot banata hai.Sarmayakaar ab Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell ke haaliye comments aur is hafte mazeed American economic reports ko dekh rahe hain taake mazeed rahnumayi hasil ho sake. Isi dauran, data ne ishara diya ke guzishta hafta Asia mein sone ki physical demand mein kami aayi jabke bartan ki unchi qeematon ne bazar mein ehtiyaat baratne ko badhawa diya. Sone ke bazaar ko mutasir karne wale asraat ke mutabiq... dollar ki qeemat safe haven demand ki buniyad par barh rahi hai. Electronic trading platforms ke mutabiq... dollar ki qeemat pehle 104.1 se neeche girne ke baad pehle martaba 104.2 tak barh gayi, jo ke June 3 ke baad se sabse kam satah tha. Weekend par Trump par hamlay ne keemati maaloomat ke mutabiq unke presidential election jeetne ke chances ko barhawa diya, jisne dollar ko upar dhakel diya.Trump ki policies, jaise ke sakht trade stance, lax regulations, aur proposed tax cuts, inflation ko barhawa dene ka imkaan hai. Isi dauran, traders ne September mein Federal Reserve ke taraf se US interest rates mein cut hone par 94% probability ke sath bet lagana jari rakha, jabke June ki masarf ki qeematein umeed se kam thi. Dollar board par mazid mazboot ho gaya, magar traders yen mein mazeed mumkina intervention ke bare mein hooshyar rahe. Dusri taraf, US 10-year Treasury bond yields Trump ke hamlay ki wajah se barh gayi. Trading ke mutabiq, 10-year US Treasury bond yields 4.2% se zyada barh gayi Monday ko, chaar mahine ke sabse kam satah se thori ubhaar lene ke baad, jabke US presidential candidate Donald Trump par hamlay ne unke November mein White House wapas jeetne ke chances ko barhawa diya. Markets ne Trump ki jeet ko Treasury bond yields ke liye bullish samjha kyunke unki policies ko tax cuts, immigration policy tightening aur import tariffs ke wajah se inflationary samjha gaya. Isi dauran, 10-year bond yield guzishta hafta pressure mein rahi, jabke US inflation ki kami ne Federal Reserve ke interest rate cuts par bet lagane ko barhawa diya. Majmoi taur par, Trump's assassination

Overall chart ko dekhtay huay lagta hai ke trend uptrending hai, jo ke barhtay huay highs aur lows se zahir hai. Iske ilawa, price movement jo ke Moving Average 50 se ooper hai, yeh long term ke liye uptrend ka tasur de rahi hai. Pichlay trend mein, lagta hai ke price upper trend line par apna lower high banane ko barhti hai. Lekin, upper trend line ko touch karne se pehle, ek zabardast buying momentum dekha gaya jis ne price ko trendline channel se bahar nikal diya, jo ke signal tha ke trend phir se barh rahi hai. Is uptrend ke shuruwati moment ne ek bohot khoobsurat demand area banaya buying ke liye. Yeh area ko buy opportunities ke liye intezaar karne ka kamra samajh sakte hain. Doosri supporting data yeh hai ke Relative Strength Index indicator line ka position dekhen jo level 50 se ooper hai, jo ke market ke pichlay do din se barhne ka ishara hai. Chand haftay pehle ke trading mein, price bullish movement kar rahi thi. Pichlay haftay ke aghaz mein sellers ne price ko neeche girane ki koshish ki, lekin haftay ke aakhri dinon mein buyers ne market par phir se control hasil kar liya aur candlestick ko bullish direction mein badal diya, is liye mein zyadah focus Entry Buy area dhoondne par kar raha hoon jo ke trend conditions ke mutabiq ho. H1 time frame ko dekhte hain. Pehle yeh bohot wazeh tha ke trend neeche ja rahi thi halan ke aakhir mein upar breakout kiya. Jab breakout hua, price ne ek base area banaya jo ke buy area ke tor par use kiya gaya jab correction hui. Yeh correction ka moka hi hai jo mein buy kholne ke liye use kar raha hoon target ratio 1:3 ke sath. Yeh reference is haftay ke trading session mein market conditions ka overview faraham karta hai jo ke buyers ke control mein wapas aagai hain. Closing price position Simple Moving Average indicator (200, 100, aur 50 periods) ke neeche gir chuki hai aur is haftay ke market ke opening price se sirf 1 pip upar ruk gayi hai. Relative Strength Index indicator abhi bhi level 70 par hai, jo yeh indicate karta hai ke price abhi bhi bullish direction mein wapas jane ki koshish kar rahi hai. In dono indicators se mujhe yeh overview milta hai ke Gold market H1 timeframe mein dheere dheere bullish direction mein move karna shuru kar rahi hai, lekin jab subha ke initial opening price par sales volume kam