Gold

Gold ka Technical Analysis
### **Gold ki Current Market Position**
Gold ki price abhi ek important level par hai. 2023 ke dauran, gold ne multiple resistance levels ko test kiya hai, aur is waqt gold ke buyers aur sellers ke darmiyan kaafi tug-of-war nazar aa rahi hai. Agar aap gold ke historical price data ko dekhein, toh aapko pata chalega ke gold ne apne highs ko sustain karne mein struggle kiya hai, especially jab US dollar ki strength increase hoti hai.

### **Support aur Resistance Levels**

Gold ke liye major support level abhi $1,900 per ounce ke aas-paas hai. Agar gold is level se niche girta hai, toh agla strong support level $1,850 par ho sakta hai. Resistance ki baat karein toh, $2,000 ka level ek psychological aur technical resistance bana hua hai. Agar gold is resistance ko break kar leta hai, toh agla target $2,050 se $2,100 ke beech ho sakta hai.

### **Technical Indicators ka Analysis**

Agar hum moving averages ko dekhein, toh 50-day Moving Average (MA) ne abhi tak price ko support diya hai, lekin 200-day MA abhi bhi ek strong support ke taur par kaam kar raha hai. Relative Strength Index (RSI) bhi abhi neutral zone mein hai, jo ke indicate karta hai ke market oversold ya overbought nahi hai. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) bhi ek potential bullish crossover indicate kar raha hai, jo ke buyers ke liye positive sign hai.

### **Fundamental Factors ka Impact**

Fundamentals bhi gold ke price ko influence kar rahe hain. Agar Federal Reserve interest rates ko increase karta hai, toh short-term mein gold ke prices par negative impact ho sakta hai. Lekin long-term mein, inflation concerns aur geopolitical uncertainties gold ke price ko upar push kar sakti hain. Dollar ki strength bhi ek crucial factor hai; agar dollar weak hota hai, toh gold ki demand barh sakti hai.

### **Final Thoughts**

Agar aap gold mein invest karna chaahte hain, toh aapko short-term aur long-term factors dono ko consider karna hoga. Abhi ke liye, gold ka technical setup thoda mixed lag raha hai, lekin support aur resistance levels par nazar rakhna zaroori hai. Agar gold $1,900 se upar rehta hai, toh yeh ek buying opportunity ho sakti hai, lekin agar yeh level break hota hai, toh aapko apne risk management par focus karna chahiye.

hai. Electronic trading platforms ke mutabiq... dollar ki qeemat pehle 104.1 se neeche girne ke baad pehle martaba 104.2 tak barh gayi, jo ke June 3 ke baad se sabse kam satah tha. Weekend par Trump par hamlay ne keemati maaloomat ke mutabiq unke presidential election jeetne ke chances ko barhawa diya, jisne dollar ko upar dhakel diya.Trump ki policies, jaise ke sakht trade stance, lax regulations, aur proposed tax cuts, inflation ko barhawa dene ka imkaan




hai. Isi dauran, traders ne September mein Federal Reserve ke taraf se US interest rates mein cut hone par 94% probability ke sath bet lagana jari rakha, jabke June ki masarf ki qeematein umeed se kam thi. Dollar board par mazid mazboot ho gaya, magar traders yen mein mazeed mumkina intervention ke bare mein hooshyar rahe.Dusri taraf, US 10-year Treasury bond yields Trump ke hamlay ki wajah se barh gayi. Trading ke mutabiq, 10-year US Treasury bond yields 4.2% se zyada barh gayi Monday ko, chaar mahine ke sabse kam satah se thori ubhaar lene ke baad, jabke US presidential candidate Donald Trump par hamlay ne unke November mein White House wapas jeetne ke chances ko barhawa diya. Markets ne Trump ki jeet ko Treasury bond yields ke liye bullish samjha kyunke unki policies ko tax cuts, immigration policy tightening aur import tariffs ke wajah se inflationary samjha gaya. Isi dauran, 10-year bond yield guzishta hafta pressure mein rahi, jabke US inflation ki kami ne Federal Reserve ke interest rate cuts par bet lagane ko barhawa diya.Majmoi taur par, Trump's assassination attempt ke baad US markets stable rahe. US stock futures, dollar aur Treasury bond yields Monday ko barh gayi jab markets ne weekend par ex-President Donald Trump par huye hamlay ka asar dekha, jo ke US political scene par sangin asar dal sakta hai. Hamlay mein ek attendee aur gunman ki maut ho gayi, aur do doosray critical condition mein thay, jabke Trump ek goli se zakhmi ho gaye.Traders ko dar hai ke mazeed tashadud siyasi adam mustaqil aur bazar ki uthal puthal ko bharakaa sakta hai, halaan ke tajziya karnay walon ne note kiya ke hamlay ne Trump ke November mein White House wapas jeetne ke chances ko barhawa diya hai.Aaj ke liye sone ki qeemat ki peshgoi: Neeche diye gaye rozana chart par performance ke mutabiq, sone ki qeemat ek mazboot upward path par hai jo $2400 per ounce ki psychological resistance ke upar move hone se supported hai, aur mazeed gains maqam-e-muqawamat $2420 aur $2435 per ounce tak mazeed technical indicators ko strong levels of saturation with buying ki taraf move karengi. Profit-taking sales tab tak nahi hongi jab tak US dollar ki qeemat recover nahi hoti aur geopolitical tensions calm nahi hoti, jo ke sone ke haal ke gains ke sabse numayan asraat hain. Filhaal, sone ke qareebi support levels $2,400 aur

economic reports ko dekh rahe hain taake mazeed rahnumayi hasil ho sake. Isi dauran, data ne ishara diya ke guzishta hafta Asia mein sone ki physical demand mein kami aayi jabke bartan ki unchi qeematon ne bazar mein ehtiyaat baratne ko badhawa diya.Sone ke bazaar ko mutasir karne wale asraat ke mutabiq... dollar ki qeemat safe haven demand ki buniyad par barh rahi hai. Electronic trading platforms ke mutabiq... dollar ki qeemat pehle 104.1 se neeche girne ke baad pehle martaba 104.2 tak barh gayi, jo ke June 3 ke baad se sabse kam satah tha. Weekend par Trump par hamlay ne keemati maaloomat ke mutabiq unke presidential election jeetne ke chances ko barhawa diya, jisne dollar ko upar dhakel diya.Trump ki policies, jaise ke sakht trade stance, lax regulations, aur proposed tax cuts, inflation ko barhawa dene ka imkaan hai. Isi dauran, traders ne September mein Federal Reserve ke taraf se US interest rates mein cut hone par 94% probability ke sath bet lagana jari rakha, jabke June ki masarf ki qeematein umeed se kam thi. Dollar board par mazid mazboot ho gaya, magar traders yeneconomic reports ko dekh rahe hain taake




mazeed rahnumayi hasil ho sake. Isi dauran, data ne ishara diya ke guzishta hafta Asia mein sone ki physical demand mein kami aayi jabke bartan ki unchi qeematon ne bazar mein ehtiyaat baratne ko badhawa diya.Sone ke bazaar ko mutasir karne wale asraat ke mutabiq... dollar ki qeemat safe haven demand ki buniyad par barh rahi hai. Electronic trading platforms ke mutabiq... dollar ki qeemat pehle 104.1 se neeche girne ke baad pehle martaba 104.2 tak barh gayi, jo ke June 3 ke baad se sabse kam satah tha. Weekend par Trump par hamlay ne keemati maaloomat ke mutabiq unke presidential election jeetne ke chances ko barhawa diya, jisne dollar ko upar dhakel diya.Trump ki policies, jaise ke sakht trade stance, lax regulations, aur proposed tax cuts, inflation ko barhawa dene ka imkaan hai. Isi dauran, traders ne September mein Federal Reserve ke taraf se US interest rates mein cut hone par 94% probability ke sath bet lagana

Overall chart ko dekhtay huay lagta hai ke trend uptrending hai, jo ke barhtay huay highs aur lows se zahir hai. Iske ilawa, price movement jo ke Moving Average 50 se ooper hai, yeh long term ke liye uptrend ka tasur de rahi hai. Pichlay trend mein, lagta hai ke price upper trend line par apna Lower High banane ko barhti hai. Lekin, upper trend line ko touch karne se pehle, ek zabardast buying momentum dekha gaya jis ne price ko trendline channel se bahar nikal diya, jo ke signal tha ke trend phir se barh rahi hai. Is uptrend ke shuruwati moment ne ek bohot khoobsurat demand area banaya buying ke liye. Yeh area ko buy opportunities ke liye intezaar karne ka kamra samajh sakte hain. Doosri supporting data yeh hai ke Relative Strength Index indicator line ka position dekhen jo level 50 se ooper hai, jo ke market ke pichlay do din se barhne ka ishara hai. Chand haftay pehle ke trading mein, price bullish movement kar rahi thi. Pichlay haftay ke aghaz mein sellers ne price ko neeche girane ki koshish ki, lekin haftay ke aakhri dinon mein buyers ne market par phir se control hasil kar liya aur candlestick ko bullish direction mein badal diya, is liye mein zyadah focus Entry Buy area dhoondne par kar raha hoon jo ke trend conditions ke mutabiq ho. H1 time frame ko dekhte hain. Pehle yeh bohot wazeh tha ke trend neeche ja rahi thi halan ke aakhir mein upar breakout kiya. Jab breakout hua, price ne ek base area banaya jo ke buy area ke tor par use kiya gaya jab correction hui. Yeh correction ka moka hi hai jo mein buy kholne ke liye use kar raha hoon target ratio 1:3 ke sath. Yeh reference is haftay ke trading session mein market conditions ka overview faraham karta hai jo ke buyers ke control mein wapas aagai hain. Closing price position Simple Moving Average indicator (200, 100, aur 50 periods) ke neeche gir chuki hai aur is haftay ke market ke opening price se sirf 1 pip upar ruk gayi hai. Relative Strength Index indicator abhi bhi level 70 par hai, jo yeh indicate karta hai ke price abhi bhi bullish direction mein wapas jane ki koshish kar rahi hai. In dono indicators se mujhe yeh overview milta hai ke Gold market H1 timeframe mein dheere dheere bullish direction mein move karna shuru kar rahi hai, lekin jab subha ke initial opening price par sales volume kam

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Gold Price Forecast

Gold ka price $2,500 se upar apni recent gains ko early Monday par hold kar raha hai, Mid-East escalation ke doran. US Dollar losses ko nurse kar raha hai, jabke US Treasury bond yields dovish Fed outlook ke sath hai. Gold ka price all-time highs ko retest karne ki soch raha hai, jabke daily technical setup buyers ke haq mein hai.

Gold ka price Monday ke start par apne pichle haftay ke gains ko $2,500 se upar consolidate kar raha hai. Gold buyers ek chhoti si break le rahe hain, jabke second consecutive weekly gain ke baad price $2,532 ke all-time high ki taraf wapas ja raha hai.

Gold ka price US data ko dekh raha hai zyada gains ke liye. Gold ka price ka strong tone zyada tar US Dollar ke weakness aur negative US Treasury bond yields ki wajah se hai, jo ke US Federal Reserve (Fed) ke Chairman Jerome Powell ke Jackson Hole Symposium par Friday ko diye gaye dovish remarks ke baad aayi hai.

Powell ne saaf tor par confirm kiya ke Fed ka easing cycle September mein shuru hoga, unhone kaha "ab policy adjust karne ka waqt aagaya hai. Safar ka rukh waazeh hai, aur rate cuts ka waqt aur pace aane wale data, evolving outlook, aur risks ke balance par depend karega."

"Inflation ke upside risks kam ho gaye hain. Aur employment ke downside risks badh gaye hain. Jaise humne apne aakhri FOMC statement mein highlight kiya tha, hum apne dual mandate ke dono sides ke risks ke bare mein hooshyar hain," Powell ne shamil kiya.

Ye comments September mein Fed rate cut ko lock karne ke liye kafi the, jabke markets ab 50 basis points (bps) rate reduction ke September mein 38% probability ko price kar rahe hain, jabke 25 bps cut ke odds 62% hain, jo ke CME Group’s FedWatch Tool ne Monday ko dikhaya. Non-interest-bearing Gold ka price low interest-rate regime se faida uthata hai.

Is doran, traditional safe-haven Gold ka price bhi Middle East mein barhti hui geopolitical tensions ka faida uthata hai, jabke Israel ne Sunday ko southern Lebanon mein Hezbollah par preemptive airstrike ki, jo reportedly 100 jet fighters ko use karte hue 40 locations ko hit kar rahi thi, jabke Hezbollah ne north aur central Israel par large-scale missile aur rocket attack launch kiya, jiska intended target Mossad, Israeli spy agency thi.

Bright metal ke haven demand mein aur izafa karte hue, Axios ne report kiya ke "Gaza talks agle kuch din tak jari rahengi through working groups jo issues aur remaining details ko address karenge," jabke Cairo mein ceasefire talks bina kisi agreement ke conclude hui.

In favorable fundamental factors ke doran, Gold ka price upside risks ke exposed rahta hai, jabke daily chart par technical setup bhi buyers ke haq mein lean kar raha hai. Gold price mein agla push higher US Durable Goods Orders data se aane ki umeed hai, jo ke Monday ko American trading mein aana hai.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Gold price ka short-term technical outlook upside risks ko suggest karta hai jabke buyers $2,470 par triangle resistance-turned-support ke upar apni position hold karte hain.



Gold price ne symmetrical triangle se apne upside break ko hold kiya hai, jo ke kuch hafte pehle confirm hui thi. 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) 50 se comfortably upar hai, jo abhi 63 ke kareeb hai, jo zyada gains ki taraf ishara karta hai.

Gold buyers ko $2,532 ke record high ko recapture karna hoga taake agla key barrier $2,550 level par le sakein.

Iske baad, $2,600 round level ko challenge kiya ja sakta hai, jo ke triangle target ki taraf hai, jo $2,660 par measured hai.

Agar Gold price higher levels par sustain karne mein fail hota hai, to ek correction unfold ho sakti hai jo $2,500 threshold tak le ja sakti hai, jisse Friday ka low $2,485 challenge ho sakta hai.

Agar is level ka sustained breach hota hai, to downside $2,470 par triangle resistance-turned-support tak expose ho sakta hai.

Economic Indicator

Durable Goods Orders, jo US Census Bureau dwara release ki jati hai, manufacturers ke dwara received orders ki cost ko measure karta hai durable goods ke liye, jiska matlab hai aise goods jo teen saal ya usse zyada chalne ki planning hoti hai, jaise motor vehicles aur appliances. Ye durable products aksar large investments involve karte hain aur ye US economic situation ke sensitive hote hain. Final figure US production activity ka state dikhata hai. Generally speaking, high reading USD ke liye bullish hoti hai.

Aaj hum Gold ke price par baat kareinge. H1 timeframe par dekhne se nazar aata hai ke Thursday aur Friday ke din ke movement ne direction change ki, jahan Thursday ko Gold mein kaafi ziada decline hua. Mujhe lag raha tha ke yeh movement GOLD ko ek gehre bearish level tak le jayegi aur maine sell bhi kiya jab price 2500 ko breach kar gaya, lekin kisay pata tha ke Friday ko price itni jaldi wapas upar chali jayegi. Upar jaane wali movement lagbhag Thursday ke decline jitni hi strong thi, aur khush kismati se maine pehle apna profit cut kar diya tha jab sell kiya, warna abhi mujhe floating loss ka samna karna padta.



Is haftay ke aaghaz mein, hum dekhte hain ke market ek normal upward gap ke sath start hui hai, aur jaldi hi GOLD ne pehla bearish candle form kiya, lekin abhi tak gap area ko properly breach nahi kar saka. Aaj Gold ke movement ke lihaaz se meri technical analysis ke mutabiq price mein wapas rise hone ke asar hain, aur yeh 2520 tak jaa sakta hai. H1 time frame par, Gold ne bullish engulfing candle form ki hai jo ke ek strong signal hai ke GOLD ko 2520 tak BUY karna chahiye. RSI 14 indicator par meri observation yeh hai ke abhi Gold ka price 2510 ke aas paas hai, jo ke overbought nahi hai ya phir zyada saturated buying nahi dikha raha, isliye yeh mumkin hai ke GOLD apna increase continue kare 2514-2520 tak. BUY GOLD ka signal SNR aur Fibonacci methods ke zariye bhi support hota hai, kyun ke jab Gold ka price 2508.50 ko touch karta hai, toh yeh already RBS area mein hota hai. Isliye yeh bhi expected hai ke aaj dopehar tak GOLD wapas ek upward correction kare 2514 tak. Aaj ki meri technical analysis ke mutabiq, maine faisla kiya hai ke BUY GOLD karoon jab tak price 2520 tak pohanchti hai.

ka support level touch kiya hai aur filhal 1.2906 par hai. RSI apne range ke beech mein hai aur upward trend dikha raha hai, jabke AO ek kamzor sell signal de raha hai. Pair kal ke range ke neeche trade kar raha hai, jo ke minor increase ka indication hai—market bullish zone mein hai. Price resistance level 1.2941 ko test karegi. Is analysis ke mutabiq, current levels par cautious buying ki recommendation hai, jiska target 1.2936 hai. Hume 28th figure ke paas thodi si girawat ke baad ek rebound dekhne ko mil sakta hai. Ye excessive decline Stochastic indicator mein bhi dekhne ko milti hai, jo current price drop ke saath align nahi karti.momentum dekha gaya jis ne price ko trendline channel se bahar nikal diya, jo ke signal tha ke trend phir se barh rahi hai. Is uptrend ke shuruwati moment ne ek bohot khoobsurat demand area banaya buying ke liye. Yeh area ko buy opportunities ke liye intezaar karne ka kamra samajh sakte hain. Doosri supporting data yeh hai ke Relative Strength Index indicator line ka position dekhen jo level 50 se ooper hai, jo ke market ke halaan ke tajziya karnay walon ne note kiya ke hamlay ne Trump ke November mein White House wapas jeetne ke chances ko barhawa diya hai.Aaj ke liye sone ki qeemat ki peshgoi: Neeche diye gaye rozana chart par performance ke rahe.Dusri taraf, US 10-year Treasury bond yields Trump ke hamlay ki wajah se barh gayi. Trading ke mutabiq, 10-year US Treasury bond yields 4.2% se zyada barh gayi Monday ko, chaar mahine ke sabse kam satah se thori ubhaar lene ke baad, jabke US presidential candidate Donald Trump par hamlay ne unke November mein White House wapas jeetne ke chances ko barhawa diya. Markets ne Trump ki jeet ko Treasury bond yields ke liye bullish samjha kyunke unki policies ko tax cuts, immigration policy tightening aur import tariffs ke wajah se inflationary samjha

Shuruati perhaps mein, 2424 support level ke neeche break ka anticipation tha, jo ke ho gaya hai. Dusre perhaps mein, is broken level ko test kiya gaya aur yeh test confirm bhi ho gaya hai. Magar, teesra perhaps, jo consolidation ko darshata hai, abhi tak nahi hua. Jab consolidation hoga, to downward trend dobara shuru ho sakta hai, jo resistance ki taraf le jaa sakta hai. Jab tak consolidation nahi hota, upward trend ka outcome undecided hai, aur sirf waqt hi batayega. Isliye, medium-term strategy abhi bhi relevant hai. Main consolidation ka wait kar raha hoon, jo ke ek aur upward move ke zaroorat hai.

Pehle humne hourly time frame discuss kiya, lekin ab daily chart par nazar dalte hain.

Daily time frame (D1) par, ek sideways wedge bana tha, jahan gold 76.43 par trade kar raha tha. 84.09 se rebound karne ke baad, resistance line se consistent wave of decline shuru hui, jo gold ko robust downward movement ke saath gap ke saath le gayi. Channel ke lower limit ki ummeed nahi thi, jo last week ke closing levels 74.09 se further decline ka signal hai. Yahan price support line ko hit karegi, jahan main rebound aur upward correction ki ummeed kar raha hoon.

Medium-term perspective se, continued decline ka indication hai, aur gold market opening se decrease honay ke liye taiyar hai. 2353.39 par price minimum TF tak pahunch gayi aur upward adjust hui. Price green zone ko cross karegi aur growth ke dauran red zone ko support level ke roop mein use karegi. Yeh MA resistance level ko break karegi, jahan red line 2390.74 par hai, aur mid-trend level tak rise karegi, jahan black line 2412.74 par hai. Price is mid-TF level (black line) ko bhi break kar sakti hai aur double top level 2429.19 tak move kar sakti hai.

H4 time frame par, gold bullish tendencies dikhata hai. 5 SMA aur 20 SMA ne 2385 level par cross kiya, jabke 200 SMA 2372 level par hai. Yeh crossover gold ke liye strong upward trend ko signal karta hai. Pichle kuch dinon ki market fluctuations ko bhool jaiye; gold kal 2457 level tak pohch gaya, jaisa maine anticipate kiya tha. Aaj, gold 2470 level ko test karne ke liye tayaar hai. Ek strong bullish trend aa raha hai, jo gold ko is mahine 2500-level milestone ke liye prepare kar raha hai. Yahan kuch strategies hain jo potential buying op

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Gold bulls eyeing further advance towards $2,555

Gold price forecast aik comprehensive analysis par mabni hai jo ke major factors ko dekhta hai jo ke precious metal ke supply aur consumer demand ko affect karte hain. Yeh analysis trading patterns, fractals, aur emerging market trends ko bhi encompass karta hai.

Jab J Powell ne September mein aane wale rate cut ke precise signals diye, markets soar hui aur sath hi Gold ka price bhi barh gaya. Additional triggers Middle East ke geo-political tensions se aaye jo Gold prices mein constant rally ko support karte hain jo $2500 se neeche nahi ja raha. Aaj ka rally $2527 par lean kar raha hai, aur $2532 se upar break karne ka intezar kar raha hai taake agla resistance $2543 par touch kare aur uske baad $2555 tak pohanche.

Immediate support $2510 par dekha jaa raha hai, jiske neeche agla demand zone $2500 par maujood hai.

Agar yeh support band breach ho jata hai, toh ek retracement expect kiya ja sakta hai jo ke $2495-$2490 se shuru ho sakta hai.

Middle East ke looming geo-political crisis ko dekhte hue, koi bhi dips speculative buyers ke liye ek attraction ban sakti hain jo near future mein continued bullish rally ke optimist hain.

Dusri taraf, metal mein $2555 ke areas se correctional decline ki kuch possibility hai jo $2500-$2490 support band breach hone par accelerate ho sakta hai.

Key Points

• XAUUSD: technical analysis suggest karta hai ke gold apne medium-term uptrend ko continue karne ki koshish kar raha hai. Agar quotes grow hoti hain, toh price August high se upar pohanch sakti hai, aur agla target Target Zone 6, 2536 - 2526 hoga.
• Bohat se analysts 2024 mein gold ke liye positive outlook offer karte hain, expecting ke yeh $2,421.00 aur $2,651.00 ke beech trade karega. Zyada conservative forecasts assume karte hain ke XAUUSD ke price mein decline ho sakta hai, aur precious metal $2,000.00–$2,133.00 ke area mein trade karega. Kuch analysts unprecedented rise ko rule out nahi karte jo $2,750.23–$2,810.76 per ounce tak ho sakta hai.
• LongForecast expect karta hai ke rally $2,799.00 tak continue karegi 2025 mein. 2026 ke pehle quarter ke liye, experts predict karte hain ke precious metal ke price $2,441.00–$2,882.00 ke range mein fluctuate karegi aur saal ke end tak $2,566.00 per ounce tak drop karegi.
• Coin Price Forecast predict karta hai ke precious metal ke price $4,649.00 per ounce tak barh sakti hai 2026 aur 2030 ke beech. Zyada conservative forecasts ke mutabiq, gold $2,800.00 tak barh sakta hai.
• XAUUSD rate interest rates, global supply aur demand mein changes, geopolitical tensions, currency devaluations rising global inflation ke against, aur world currencies mein fluctuations par depend karta hai.
• XAUUSD: technical analysis suggest karta hai ke gold medium-term uptrend ke andar rise kar raha hai. Agar asset Target Zone 6, 2536 - 2526 breach karta hai, toh agla bullish target Target Zone 7, 2641 - 2631 hoga.

Gold Price Forecast kaise banaya jata hai?

Gold rate prediction banane ke teen key approaches hain:

1. Fundamental analysis
   
   Fundamental analysis monetary policy mein changes aur doosre factors ko track karta hai jo ke precious metals ke price ko affect karte hain. Sabse pehle, yeh global financial system aur US central bank ke actions mein changes ko dekhta hai. Isliye, yeh zaroori hai ke various macroeconomic indicators ko account mein rakha jaye:
   • Federal funds rate changes;
   • Inflationary market expectations;
   • Currencies ke movements aur money supply ka size;
   • Imports aur exports ka balance.
   
   
   Gold exchange rate ke analysis mein ek bohot zaroori fundamental factor importing aur exporting countries ke economic aur geopolitical situation ka assessment hai.
   
   Notably, economics aur politics interrelated hain. Jab bhi precious metal mein invest karte hain, yeh factors zaroori hote hain.
   
   Akhri chand months mein, gold ne naye all-time highs hit kiye hain in global events ke wajah se:
   • Russia aur Ukraine ke darmiyan military conflict;
   • Palestine aur Israel ke darmiyan military conflict;
   • China aur Taiwan ke darmiyan tensions;
   • China-US trade war aur related restrictions;
   • Russia ke assets jo ke abroad frozen hain aur sanctions jo Russia par impose kiye gaye hain;
   • Higher central bank interest rates aur soaring inflation;
   
   
   De-dollarization process aur national currencies ki taraf shift jo ke settlements mein hoti hai countries ke darmiyan.
   Yeh events already gold ke price ko affect kar chuke hain. Investors apne capital ko lose karne se darte hain aur XAU mein invest karte hain, jo ke gold ke liye demand barhata hai. Metal ko various economic aur political downturns ke waqt main protective asset samjha jata hai.
   
   Iske ilawa, fundamental analysis commonly global trends ko forecast karne mein use hota hai.
2. Technical analysis
   
   Yeh approach XAUUSD quotes ke history ko charts par study karne mein shamil hai indicators aur doosre tools ke zariye jo ke price movements ko analyze karte hain. Technical analysis support aur resistance levels, trend lines, possible price breakouts aur reversals ko long term aur intraday trading mein determine karne mein madad karta hai.
   
   Gold mein long term mein ek directional movement hoti hai. Isliye, technical analysis ke liye trend indicators jese ke Moving Averages, RSI, MACD, aur Bollinger Bands primarily use hote hain.
   
   
   
   H4, D1, W1, aur MN time frames humein XAUUSD ke price movement ke insights offer kar sakte hain until the end of 2024. Technical indicators jese ke RSI, MACD, MFI, MA Cross, aur tick volumes ek more accurate forecast provide karne mein crucial role play karte hain. Yeh tools humein significant support aur resistance levels XAUUSD chart par identify karne, current trend ki strength gauge karne, aur potential pivot points pinpoint karne mein madad dete hain.
   
   Technical indicators ko apply karne ke ilawa, candlestick aur chart analysis perform karna bhi zaroori hai. Candlestick patterns reversal levels ko advance mein reveal kar sakti hain, jo aapko kam risk ke sath profitable trade open karne ka moka deti hain.
   
   Kuch common chart aur candlestick analysis patterns jo gold chart par milte hain, unmein "Bull flag," "Bear flag," "Morning star," "Evening star," "Shooting star," "Double bottom," aur "Double top" patterns shamil hain.
   
   Price ne August 2018 se ek sustained uptrend maintain kiya hai. May 2024 mein, quotes ne $2,450.00 ka new all-time high hit kiya aur reverse hona shuru kiya, ek "Doji" candlestick pattern form karte hue. Yeh market mein uncertainty indicate karta hai. As a rule, "Doji" pattern jo ke uptrend ke peak par form hota hai, ek strong bearish reversal signal generate karta hai.
   
   RSI values overbought zone mein hain 71 par, downward turn lete hue aur middle range par wapas aa rahe hain.
   
   MFI sideways movement ko point out karta hai, koi buy aur sell signals nahi milte. Lekin, tick volumes teen mahine se barh rahe hain, jo ke investor interest ko dikhate hain. Highest tick volume April 2024 mein record hui, jab "Doji" pattern emerge hua. Upar diye gaye factors ko dekhte hue, bears market ko control kar rahe hain, aur $2,047.66–$1,816.65 ki taraf ek downward correction possible hai jahan MA50 support level ke tor par act kar raha hai.
   
   Nevertheless, MACD middle line ke upar sideways move kar raha hai. Short-term MA50 long-term MA200 ke upar located hai. Iske ilawa, moving averages ke darmiyan gap extend hota hai jabke bullish trend resilient rehta hai.
   
   Asset price ka preliminary analysis ye dikhaata hai ke gold market overheated hai, aur ongoing uptrend ke andar ek short-term downward correction jald ho sakta hai.
3. Market sentiment analysis
   
   Yeh approach buyers aur sellers ke mood ko assess karne mein shamil hai, yani ke is waqt market mein kiska dominant position hai. Market sentiment analysis instruments mein surveys, social networks par content monitoring, aur specialized online platforms shamil hain.
   
   Yeh yaad rakhna zaroori hai ke market sentiment bohot jaldi change ho sakta hai. Yeh future gold price forecasts se influence hota hai jo ke professional analysts dete hain ya, for example, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell jo information provide karte hain uske zariye bhi ho sakta hai.

Gold aur Aaj ka Gold Price ka Recent History

2024 ke start se, gold ne apni value mein 23% se zyada ka izafa kiya hai, aur mid-May mein $2,450.00 per ounce ka all-time high touch kiya hai. Analysts aur experts XAUUSD ke future price par mixed forecasts dete hain. Asset ne kuch fundamental factors ki wajah se naye highs touch kar liye hain.

• Rising geopolitical tensions
  Russia aur Ukraine ke darmiyan ongoing conflict XAUUSD mein further growth ko drive kar raha hai. Iske ilawa, Middle East mein Palestine aur Israel ke darmiyan conflict investor interest ko gold mein fuel kar raha hai taake capital ko safeguard kiya ja sake.
  
  Recently imposed restrictions China par jo ke US ne increase duties ke tor par impose ki hain Chinese goods ke imports par, yeh China ke leadership ko counteract karne ke liye majboor kar sakti hain. Trade conflict ka escalation bhi market mein uncertainty ko lead kar sakta hai, jo ke gold prices ko spur karega.
  
  Iske ilawa, China ne recently coast of Taiwan ke qareeb military drills ki hain. Yeh drills foreign forces ke liye ek warning bhi thi ke provocations aur interference ke khilaf khadi ho.
• US Federal Reserve monetary policy
  US Federal Reserve ka interest rate July se 5.5% par hai, jo ke 20 saal se zyada ka highest rate hai.
  
  March aur April 2024 mein, US inflation 3.5% tak accelerate hui 3.1% se, jo ke May mein 3.4% tak cool hui. Iske madde nazar, April ke akhir mein hone wale Fed meeting ke results ke mutabiq, regulator ne rates par stand pat karne ka faisla kiya. FOMC minutes mein likha tha ke June se Treasury securities ke liye redemption cap $25 billion per month se $60 billion per month tak lower kiya jayega.
• Increased demand for gold from major importing countries
  XAUUSD ke growth ka aik fundamental factor physical gold ke significant purchases hain jo ke importing countries ke central banks ne pichle chay mahine mein ki hain.
  
  Precious metal ke liye demand ka growth central banks ke reserves ke redistribution ke saath related hai jabke Russian assets ko freeze aur withdraw karne ka precedent set kiya gaya tha. Jese jese US apni global dominance lose kar raha hai, zyada se zyada countries US dollar ko chhod rahi hain apni national currencies aur gold ke favor mein.
  
  Example ke tor par, April mein, India ne apne gold purchases teen guna barha diye jabke precious metal ka price rising tha, apne reserves mein $3.115 billion ka izafa karte hue. 2024 ke pehle chaar mahine mein, India ke gold reserves $12.706 billion tak barh gaye hain.
  
  Dusri taraf, China ne XAUUSD quotations ke growth ke madde nazar apne gold purchases slow kar diye. Iss tarah, April mein imports mein 30% ki kami hui 136 tons tak jo ke pichle mahine ke comparison mein tha. Lekin, China abhi bhi precious metal ka ek sabse bara producer aur consumer hai, aur apne reserves ko 18 consecutive months tak barhata raha hai.

sone ki qeemat ne jumme ko apna teesra musalsal haftawaar gain darj kiya, jabke America mein afsos ke sath inflation kam hone se Federal Reserve ke taraf se interest rates mein cut hone ki umeedein mazid mazboot ho gayi. Economic calendar ke natayij ke mutabiq... Guzishta hafta dikhaya ke America mein masarf ki qeematein June mein pehli baar chaar saalon mein gir gayi, jo ke Federal Reserve ke taraf se September mein interest rate cut hone ki umeedon ko mazid mazboot banata hai.Sarmayakaar ab Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell ke haaliye comments aur is hafte mazeed American economic reports ko dekh rahe hain taake mazeed rahnumayi hasil ho sake. Isi dauran, data ne ishara diya ke guzishta hafta Asia mein sone ki physical demand mein kami aayi jabke bartan ki unchi qeematon ne bazar mein ehtiyaat baratne ko badhawa diya.Sone ke bazaar ko mutasir karne wale asraat ke mutabiq... dollar ki qeemat safe haven demand ki buniyad par barh rahi hai. Electronic trading platforms ke mutabiq... dollar ki qeemat pehle 104.1 se neeche girne ke baad pehle martaba 104.2 tak barh gayi, jo ke June 3 ke baad se sabse kam satah tha. Weekend par Trump par hamlay ne keemati maaloomat ke mutabiq unke presidential election jeetne ke chances ko barhawa diya, jisne dollar ko upar dhakel diya.Trump ki policies, jaise ke sakht trade stance, lax regulations, aur proposed tax cuts, inflation ko barhawa dene ka imkaan hai. Isi dauran, traders ne September mein Federal Reserve ke taraf se US interest rates mein cut hone par 94% probability ke sath bet lagana jari rakha, jabke June ki masarf ki qeematein umeed se kam thi. Dollar board par mazid mazboot ho gaya, magar traders yen mein mazeed mumkina intervention ke bare mein hooshyar rahe.Dusri taraf, US 10-year Treasury bond yields Trump ke hamlay ki wajah se barh gayi. Trading ke mutabiq, 10-year US Treasury bond yields 4.2% se zyada barh gayi Monday ko, chaar mahine ke sabse kam satah se thori ubhaar lene ke baad, jabke US presidential candidate Donald Trump par hamlay ne unke November mein White House wapas jeetne ke chances ko barhawa diya. Markets ne Trump ki jeet ko Treasury bond yields ke liye bullish samjha kyunke unki policies ko tax cuts, immigration policy tightening aur import tariffs ke wajah se inflationary samjha gaya. Isi dauran, 10-year bond yield guzishta hafta pressure mein rahi, jabke US inflation ki kami ne Federal Reserve ke interest rate cuts par bet lagane ko barhawa diya.Majmoi taur par, Trump's assassination attempt ke baad US markets stable rahe. US stock futures, dollar aur Treasury bond yields Monday ko barh gayi jab markets ne weekend par ex-President Donald Trump par huye hamlay ka asar dekha, jo ke US political scene par sangin asar dal sakta hai. Hamlay mein ek attendee aur gunman ki maut ho gayi, aur do doosray critical condition mein thay, jabke Trump ek goli se zakhmi ho gaye.Traders ko dar hai ke mazeed tashadud siyasi adam mustaqil aur bazar ki uthal puthal ko bharakaa sakta hai, halaan ke tajziya karnay walon ne note kiya ke hamlay ne Trump ke November mein White House wapas jeetne ke chances ko barhawa diya hai.Aaj ke liye sone ki qeemat ki peshgoi: Neeche diye gaye rozana chart par performance ke mutabiq, sone ki qeemat ek mazboot upward path par hai jo $2400 per ounce ki psychological resistance ke upar move hone se supported hai, aur mazeed gains maqam-e-muqawamat $2420 aur $2435 per ounce tak mazeed technical indicators ko strong levels of saturation with buying ki taraf move karengi. Profit-taking sales tab tak nahi hongi jab tak US dollar ki qeemat recover nahi hoti aur geopolitical tensions calm nahi hoti, jo ke sone ke haal ke gains ke sabse numayan asraat hain. Filhaal, sone ke

Gold price ke behavior ka analysis aik interesting topic hai. Daily chart pe pehle se hi situation discuss hui thi, toh ab H1 time frame ko dekhte hain. H1 chart pe dekha jaye toh aik established upward price channel nazar aa raha hai, jahan gold iss waqt kareeban $2,511 ke aas paas trade kar raha hai. Technical indicators ye signal de rahe hain ke ye upward trend jari reh sakta hai, aur agla target $2,549 ke level ke kareeb ho sakta hai, jo aglay trading week ke pehle hisay main ho sakta hai.

Lekin yahaan pe aik divergence nazar aa rahi hai daily aur hourly charts ke signals main, jo suggest karta hai ke ehtiyaat se kaam lena chahiye. Pehle gold ke performance ko observe karna zaroori hoga before koi action lena. Agar reversal confirm ho jata hai, toh ye aik signal ho sakta hai ke selling initiate ki jaye, jahan target $2,214 ka prolonged move ho sakta hai. Lekin agar reversal confirm nahi hota, toh gold prices mein mazeed $201–301 tak ka izafa bhi ho sakta hai.

Daily chart pe wapas jaate hue, third wave of decline jo ke sideways price channel ke andar thi, $2,351 level se rebound ke baad break hui. Is break ke baad gold ne sharply upward move kiya, aur ek naya upward price channel form kiya jo ab $2,511 ke aas paas hai. Iss level par short gold positions ko consider karna chahiye, jahan corrective decline ka anticipate ho raha hai towards support line, jo ke kareeban $2,424 ke aas paas intersect kar raha hai. Gold demand mein kami traders ke portfolios shift karne ke wajah se aayi hai, jahan bohot se log stocks ki taraf ja rahe hain, jo ke upar jaane ki expectation hai, khas tor par Federal Reserve ke reserves rate mein reduction ke bawajood. Lekin market abhi re-market mode mein hai, toh U.S. labour market ke downturn ki possibility hai, jisko Powell ne support karne ka wada kiya hai.

Akhir mein, weekly chart pe dekha jaye toh most recent trading week ek intense uncertainty candle ke saath khatam hui hai. Aik mohtaat approach yeh hogi ke aglay weekly candle ke closure ka intezar kiya jaye.

Gold ke prices haali mein girawat ka shikaar hain, jiska sabab hai ke market sentiment US recession ke khauf mein kami aur economic conditions ke behtar hone ke sath shift ho raha hai. Gold ki appeal mein kami ka ek sabab ye bhi hai ke US dollar majboot ho gaya hai aur Treasury yields barh gayi hain, jo ke gold jese non-yielding assets ko investors ke liye kam attractive bana deti hain. Recent US labor market data, jo ke ummed se zyada achi rahi, ne bhi is baat ko majbooti di hai ke economy recession se bacha reh sakti hai, aur is se gold ka safe-haven appeal kam hua hai. Federal Reserve ka cautious monetary policy bhi gold prices ko influence kar raha hai. Jab ke pehle rate-cutting cycle ke liye kuch umeed thi, ab ye umeed kam ho gayi hai kyun ke Fed ne interest rates par "higher for longer" ka stance continue kiya hai. Iska bhi gold prices par modest decline ka asar hua hai, kyun ke investors apne expectations ko future monetary easing ke liye adjust kar rahe hain. Magar, geopolitical risks, jaise ke Middle East mein ongoing tensions aur international relations ki uncertainties, ab bhi gold ke liye kuch support provide kar rahi hain. Ye risks gold ko global instability ke khilaf hedge ke tor par banaye rakhte hain, isliye gold ki demand barqarar hai.

H4 chart mein significant areas dikhai dete hain jahan bulls aur bears active hain. 2473 aur 2480 ke beech ka zone ek strong resistance area hai jahan bears ne consistently price ko neeche push kiya hai, jabke 2440 ke neeche ka area ek robust support zone hai bulls ke liye. Isse ek trading strategy ka tajwez diya ja sakta hai: 2440 se 2473 ke range mein short trades par focus karein, bearish pressure ke liye; is range ke bahar long trades consider karein, breakout ki umeed ke sath. 50 Simple Moving Average jo ke 2432 par hai, bhi bulls ke liye support provide karta hai, isliye ye ek key level hai jo upward movement ke liye watch karna chahiye.

Shuruati perhaps mein, 2424 support level ke neeche break ka anticipation tha, jo ke ho gaya hai. Dusre perhaps mein, is broken level ko test kiya gaya aur yeh test confirm bhi ho gaya hai. Magar, teesra perhaps, jo consolidation ko darshata hai, abhi tak nahi hua. Jab consolidation hoga, to downward trend dobara shuru ho sakta hai, jo resistance ki taraf le jaa sakta hai. Jab tak consolidation nahi hota, upward trend ka outcome undecided hai, aur sirf waqt hi batayega. Isliye, medium-term strategy abhi bhi relevant hai. Main consolidation ka wait kar raha hoon, jo ke ek aur upward move ke zaroorat hai.

Pehle humne hourly time frame discuss kiya, lekin ab daily chart par nazar dalte hain.

Daily time frame (D1) par, ek sideways wedge bana tha, jahan gold 76.43 par trade kar raha tha. 84.09 se rebound karne ke baad, resistance line se consistent wave of decline shuru hui, jo gold ko robust downward movement ke saath gap ke saath le gayi. Channel ke lower limit ki ummeed nahi thi, jo last week ke closing levels 74.09 se further decline ka signal hai. Yahan price support line ko hit karegi, jahan main rebound aur upward correction ki ummeed kar raha hoon.

Medium-term perspective se, continued decline ka indication hai, aur gold market opening se decrease honay ke liye taiyar hai. 2353.39 par price minimum TF tak pahunch gayi aur upward adjust hui. Price green zone ko cross karegi aur growth ke dauran red zone ko support level ke roop mein use karegi. Yeh MA resistance level ko break karegi, jahan red line 2390.74 par hai, aur mid-trend level tak rise karegi, jahan black line 2412.74 par hai. Price is mid-TF level (black line) ko bhi break kar sakti hai aur double top level 2429.19 tak move kar sakti hai.

H4 time frame par, gold bullish tendencies dikhata hai. 5 SMA aur 20 SMA ne 2385 level par cross kiya, jabke 200 SMA 2372 level par hai. Yeh crossover gold ke liye strong upward trend ko signal karta hai. Pichle kuch dinon ki market fluctuations ko bhool jaiye; gold kal 2457 level tak pohch gaya, jaisa maine anticipate kiya tha. Aaj, gold 2470 level ko test karne ke liye tayaar hai. Ek strong bullish trend aa raha hai, jo gold ko is mahine 2500-level milestone ke liye prepare kar raha hai. Yahan kuch strategies hain jo potential buying op

Hum Gold pair ke price fluctuations ka analysis explore karne wale hain. H4 chart par, Gold 2514.00 ke din ke opening level aur daily Pivot level 2488.00 se upar trade kar raha hai. Leading indicators ek bullish trend ko show kar rahe hain, kyun ke price MA72 trend line se upar hai, jahan volume aksar unload hota hai. Agar price 2517.00 se upar nikal jata hai, toh aap further growth expect kar rahe hain jo 2525.00 tak ja sakta hai, aur possibly 2531.00 tak reach kar sakta hai. Agar price 2517.00 se neeche girta hai, toh aapko 2514.00 tak descent ki umeed hai, jo possibly 2507.00 tak bhi ja sakta hai. Is waqt, Gold ke trading indicators strong bullish bias ko suggest kar rahe hain, kyun ke pair monthly Pivot level 2415.00, weekly Pivot level 2507.00, aur daily Pivot level 2488.00 se upar trade kar raha hai. Agar price weekly Pivot level 2507.00 se neeche girti hai, toh ek correction ho sakta hai, lekin jab tak price is level se upar rehti hai, upward movement ka possibility barqarar hai. Key resistance level 2517.00 pe hai, jo confident climb ko confirm kar sakta hai.



Market ke overall stability ko dekhte hue, Gold ka upward trajectory continue hai. Aaj market ne pehle hi 2518.00 ke qareebi targets achieve kar liye hain, aur trading is level ke upar ho rahi hai. Gold ki demand barqarar hai, chahe dollar strength gain karne ki koshish kare. Gold ka status ek primary safe-haven asset ke tor pe reaffirm ho raha hai. Aap filhal sidelines pe hain, lekin market ko naye highs tak pahunchne ki umeed hai. Agar 2530.00 ka breakout false sabit hota hai, toh aap pullback ke tor pe sell consider kar sakte hain, lekin aapke targets abhi tak undefined hain. Hourly chart par, XAU/USD pair ek uptrend experience kar raha hai, jahan price 132-period moving average se upar hai. Choti time frames par bhi, price 132-period moving average se upar close ho raha hai, jo buying opportunities ko open karta hai is trend ke andar. Aap expect kar rahe hain ke price 2514.00 tak pull back kare, jiske baad buying opportunities mil sakti hain. Alternative scenario mein, sell ka relevance tab ho sakta hai jab price 2469.00 se neeche settle hota hai. Hourly chart par uptrend ke andar buying abhi bhi priority hai.

Agar candle ka body imbalance area ke andar band ho jata hai, to ye is baat ki nishani hai ke market ke players is area ki izzat nahi kar rahe hain. Is liye hum agle reaction ko dekhte hain. Phir ya to ek breakout hota hai, aur hum naye scenario par nazar rakhte hain, ya ek nayi candle pichhli candle ke maximum/minimum se liquidity ko nikaal sakti hai aur palat sakti hai, jise ek poora reaction dikhaya ja sakta hai. Aur yahan duality ki koi jagah nahi honi chahiye. Author ki recommendations ko dobara dekhain. Ye areas wo hain jo zyada tar price ko attract karte hain, aur inhi areas mein reactions ke sath movements shuru hote hain. Chaliye ab XAU/USD (GOLD) currency pair ki halat ko dobara analyse karte hain. Dekhein, price ne pehli swing liquidity ko 2477.278 ki value ke sath test kiya hai, aur reaction kahan gaya? Sabse qareeb imbalance (price gap) ka location kaafi door hai - 2417.264, lekin isay nazarandaz nahi kiya ja sakta. Ye samajhne ke liye ke kya price ek qareeb imbalance bana sakti hai, humein current daily candle ke close hone ka intezar karna padega. Agar ye close hota hai, jaisa chart par dikhaya gaya hai, to ye naye din ke liye growth ke haq mein support hai. Ye samajhne ki buniyad hai.

Current situation mein, mujhe ummeed hai ke southward correction khatam hogi aur upward scenario continue hoga. Mere khayalat screen ke andar hain. Lekin aaj mujhe is asset mein dilchaspi nahi hai. Ye samajhna zaroori hai ke kya current situation mein support ke taur par nayi imbalance banegi ya nahi. Abhi, nazar aata hai ke correction abhi tak mukammal nahi hui. Magar is horizontal line ka breakout false sabit hua, isliye hum ab downward correction dekh rahe hain. Main ye nahi keh sakta ke humare paas "double top" configuration hai, kyunki instrument quotes sideways range ke andar move kar rahe hain aur upper points of maximums lower border of trading range ke support level -2384 se zyada mukhtalif nahi hain.

Kal US inflation data ke publication ki ummeed hai, isliye mujhe zyada market volatility ka intezar hai. Agar gold north ki taraf jata hai, to hum historical maximums ke naye record dekhenge. South se, humara qareeb support level -2426 hai. Iska breakout decline ko -2384 ke