ای AUD/USD کی تجزیہ اور مارکیٹ کے رجحانات

China ke economic statistics ke jumay ke din elaan ke baad, Australian dollar (AUD) ne US dollar (USD) ke muqablay mein halka sa mazbooti dikhayi. 2024 ke teesray quarter mein 4.6% ke izafay ke baad, China ka GDP 5.4% year-over-year barh gaya chothay quarter mein. Yeh data market consensus ke 5% ke andazay se kaafi behtar tha.

Quarter-over-quarter basis par Chinese GDP rate Q4 2024 mein 1.6% barh gaya, jo ke pehle wale quarter ke 0.9% izafay se zyada tha aur yeh andazay ke mutabiq 1.6% tha. December ke annual retail sales 3.7% barh gayi, jo ke andazay ke 3.5% aur pichlay mahine ke 3% se behtar hai, jabke industrial production 6.2% pe aayi, jo ke 5.4% ke andazay aur November ke 5.4% se zyada thi.

Australia ki baat karein toh, seasonally adjusted unemployment rate November ke 3.9% se barh kar December mein 4.0% ho gayi, jo ke market ke andazay ke mutabiq thi. Lekin employment growth December mein 56.3K tak barh gayi, jo market ke andazay (15.0K) se bohot zyada thi aur November ke 28.2K (jo ke pehle 35.6K update hui thi) se bhi behtar thi.

ABS ke chief of labor statistics, Bjorn Jarvis, ne kaha: "Employment-to-population ratio 0.1 percentage points barh kar naye record 64.5% tak pahunch gayi. Yeh data pre-COVID-19 levels se 2.3 percentage points zyada aur ek saal pehle ke muqablay mein 0.5 percentage points zyada hai. Employment aur unemployment ke izafay ke natije mein participation rate bhi barh gaya, jo ke un logon ka proportion hai jo kaam kar rahe hain ya kaam dhoondh rahe hain."


Technical Outlook
Jumay ke din, AUD/USD pair kareeb 0.6220 par trade kar raha hai aur daily chart ke declining channel ko todhne ki koshish mein hai. Agar yeh breakthrough hota hai, toh maujooda negative bias kamzor ho sakta hai. 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) bhi upward trend dikhata hai jo 50 level ki taraf barhne ka ishara deta hai, jo ke recovery momentum ka signal hai.

0.6220 ke kareeb, declining channel ka upar ka hisa AUD/USD pair ke liye foran resistance banata hai. Neeche ki taraf, 14-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) jo 0.6213 par hai aur nine-day EMA jo 0.6206 par hai, early support faraham karte hain. Ek mazboot support level kareeb 0.5920 mark par hai, jo ke declining channel ka neeche ka hisa hai.

New Zealand Dollar (NZD) do din se lagataar US Dollar (USD) ke muqable kamzor ho raha hai aur Friday ko European session ke doran qareeban 0.5590 ke qareeb trade kar raha tha. Ye girawat zyadatar US Dollar ki mazbooti ki waja se hui hai. US Dollar Index (DXY), jo USD ki qeemat ko ek currency basket ke muqable mapta hai, apni chaar din ki girawat ke baad 109.20 ki taraf barhta nazar aya. Lekin dollar ki mazbooti ko kamzor US economic data ne thoda rok diya.

US retail sales December mein sirf 0.4% month-over-month barhein, jo market ki umeed 0.6% aur pichle maheenay ke revised figure 0.8% se neeche the. Isi tarah, core US Consumer Price Index (CPI), jo khurak aur energy ki prices ko chhod kar dekhta hai, December mein 3.2% year-over-year barha, jo market expectations aur pichle maheenay ke reading 3.3% se thoda kam tha.

In readings ne market ke is andazay ko mazboot kiya ke Federal Reserve (Fed) is saal economic slowdown se bachne ke liye do dafa interest rates cut karega. In factors ne USD par dabao dala, lekin NZD/USD pair bhi mushkilat ka shikar raha, China ke kuch positive economic news ke bawajood, jo New Zealand ka ek bara trading partner hai.

China ka GDP growth fourth quarter 2024 mein market expectations aur pichle quarter ke muqable kaafi behtareen raha, jo 5.4% year-over-year barha. Ye growth pehle ke 4.6% aur expected 5% se zyada tha. Mazboot Chinese economic performance NZD ke liye aam tor par support ka kaam karta hai.

Technical analysis ke mutabiq, NZD/USD pair mix signals show kar raha tha. Relative Strength Index (RSI) 40 level tak gir gaya, jo bearish pressure ke barhne ka ishara karta hai. Magar Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram ab bhi green bars generate kar raha tha, jo ye dikhata hai ke underlying bullish momentum ab bhi hai, magar zyada confident nahi.

RSI aur MACD ke darmiyan ye farq market sentiment ki nazakat ko highlight karta hai. Agar NZD/USD pair 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), jo is waqt qareeban 0.5600 par hai, ke qareeb consolidate karta hai, to buyers pair ko upar le jane ki koshish karenge. Pehle 0.5630 ka resistance level ho sakta hai, uske baad 0.5650 ki taraf move karne ke chances hain. Dusri taraf, agar 0.5580 support level tor diya gaya to bears ko mazbooti mil sakti hai, jo 0.5550 tak girawat ka darwaza khol sakta hai aur pair ke emerging support base ko kamzor kar sakta hai.

AUD/USD pair is waqt lagbhag 0.6220 par trade kar raha hai Thursday ke din, aur yeh daily chart par descending channel ke upar break karne ki koshish kar raha hai. Agar yeh break successful hoti hai, toh yeh bearish bias ko kamzor kar sakti hai. 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) dheere dheere 50 level ki taraf barh raha hai, jo yeh signal de raha hai ke market mein recovery ka process shuru ho sakta hai.
Is waqt AUD/USD pair ka pehla resistance descending channel ki upper boundary ke paas hai, jo lagbhag 0.6220 ke aas-paas mojood hai. Yeh resistance level kaafi important hai, kyunki agar price is level ke upar breakout karta hai, toh yeh bullish momentum ko mazboot kar sakta hai aur market mein upward movement ka signal de sakta hai. Traders ka focus is baat par hoga ke price kya iss level ke upar sustain kar sakta hai ya nahi.

Support levels ki baat ki jaye toh, AUD/USD pair pehla support 14-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke aas-paas test kar sakta hai, jo abhi lagbhag 0.6214 par hai. Iske baad dusra support 9-day EMA ke paas hai, jo takreeban 0.6206 ke level par hai. Yeh short-term EMAs support ke lihaaz se kaafi aham hai, kyunki trending markets mein yeh dynamic support ka kaam karte hain.

Agar yeh support levels hold nahi karte, toh price descending channel ki lower boundary ki taraf gir sakta hai, jo takreeban 0.5920 ke kareeb hai. Yeh level kaafi significant hai, aur agar price iske neeche girta hai toh bearish trend mazboot ho sakta hai. Yeh pair abhi ek critical stage par hai, aur inhi levels par focus karte hue price action ko closely monitor karna zaroori hai

جنوری 21 2025 کو اے یو ڈی/امریکی ڈالرکے لیے پیشن گوئی

آسٹریلوی ڈالر کل تیزی کے ساتھ ختم ہوا لیکن آج اس کی شروعات نمایاں کمی کے ساتھ ہوئی ہے۔ یہ اتار چڑھاؤ اس جوڑے کو ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. لائن کے قریب 0.6351 یا قدرے کم مزاحمتی سطح کی طرف دھکیل سکتا ہے۔ ممکنہ نمو کا علاقہ بھوری رنگ کے انڈاکار سے ظاہر ہوتا ہے۔



تاہم، اگر آج ایک سیاہ موم بتی کے ساتھ بند ہوتا ہے، یعنی 0.6273 سے نیچے، 0.5943 پر ہدف کی حمایت تک پہنچنے کا امکان نمایاں طور پر بڑھ جائے گا۔



چار گھنٹے کے چارٹ پر، قیمت اور آسیلیٹر دونوں نے ایک کمزور ڈائیورژن بنایا ہے، جو قیمت پر جاری دباؤ کی تجویز کرتا ہے۔ 0.6212 پر ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. لائن کے نیچے قیمت کا استحکام اس دباؤ کی توثیق کرے گا اور درمیانی مدت کے نیچے کی طرف حرکت کا آغاز کر سکتا ہے۔

تعینات کیا مراد ہے مارکیٹ کے تجزیات یہاں ارسال کیے جاتے ہیں جس کا مقصد آپ کی بیداری بڑھانا ہے، لیکن تجارت کرنے کے لئے ہدایات دینا نہیں*

New Zealand Dollar (NZD) do din se lagataar US Dollar (USD) ke muqable kamzor ho raha hai aur Friday ko European session ke doran qareeban 0.5590 ke qareeb trade kar raha tha. Ye girawat zyadatar US Dollar ki mazbooti ki waja se hui hai. US Dollar Index (DXY), jo USD ki qeemat ko ek currency basket ke muqable mapta hai, apni chaar din ki girawat ke baad 109.20 ki taraf barhta nazar aya. Lekin dollar ki mazbooti ko kamzor US economic data ne thoda rok diya.

US retail sales December mein sirf 0.4% month-over-month barhein, jo market ki umeed 0.6% aur pichle maheenay ke revised figure 0.8% se neeche the. Isi tarah, core US Consumer Price Index (CPI), jo khurak aur energy ki prices ko chhod kar dekhta hai, December mein 3.2% year-over-year barha, jo market expectations aur pichle maheenay ke reading 3.3% se thoda kam tha.

In readings ne market ke is andazay ko mazboot kiya ke Federal Reserve (Fed) is saal economic slowdown se bachne ke liye do dafa interest rates cut karega. In factors ne USD par dabao dala, lekin NZD/USD pair bhi mushkilat ka shikar raha, China ke kuch positive economic news ke bawajood, jo New Zealand ka ek bara trading partner hai.

China ka GDP growth fourth quarter 2024 mein market expectations aur pichle quarter ke muqable kaafi behtareen raha, jo 5.4% year-over-year barha. Ye growth pehle ke 4.6% aur expected 5% se zyada tha. Mazboot Chinese economic performance NZD ke liye aam tor par support ka kaam karta hai.

Technical analysis ke mutabiq, NZD/USD pair mix signals show kar raha tha. Relative Strength Index (RSI) 40 level tak gir gaya, jo bearish pressure ke barhne ka ishara karta hai. Magar Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram ab bhi green bars generate kar raha tha, jo ye dikhata hai ke underlying bullish momentum ab bhi hai, magar zyada confident nahi.

RSI aur MACD ke darmiyan ye farq market sentiment ki nazakat ko highlight karta hai. Agar NZD/USD pair 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), jo is waqt qareeban 0.5600 par hai, ke qareeb consolidate karta hai, to buyers pair ko upar le jane ki koshish karenge. Pehle 0.5630 ka resistance level ho sakta hai, uske baad 0.5650 ki taraf move karne ke chances hain. Dusri taraf, agar 0.5580 support level tor diya gaya to bears ko mazbooti mil sakti hai, jo 0.5550 tak girawat ka darwaza khol sakta hai aur

New Zealand Dollar (NZD) do din se lagataar US Dollar (USD) ke muqable kamzor ho raha hai aur Friday ko European session ke doran qareeban 0.5590 ke qareeb trade kar raha tha. Ye girawat zyadatar US Dollar ki mazbooti ki waja se hui hai. US Dollar Index (DXY), jo USD ki qeemat ko ek currency basket ke muqable mapta hai, apni chaar din ki girawat ke baad 109.20 ki taraf barhta nazar aya. Lekin dollar ki mazbooti ko kamzor US economic data ne thoda rok diya.

US retail sales December mein sirf 0.4% month-over-month barhein, jo market ki umeed 0.6% aur pichle maheenay ke revised figure 0.8% se neeche the. Isi tarah, core US Consumer Price Index (CPI), jo khurak aur energy ki prices ko chhod kar dekhta hai, December mein 3.2% year-over-year barha, jo market expectations aur pichle maheenay ke reading 3.3% se thoda kam tha.

In readings ne market ke is andazay ko mazboot kiya ke Federal Reserve (Fed) is saal economic slowdown se bachne ke liye do dafa interest rates cut karega. In factors ne USD par dabao dala, lekin NZD/USD pair bhi mushkilat ka shikar raha, China ke kuch positive economic news ke bawajood, jo New Zealand ka ek bara trading partner hai.

China ka GDP growth fourth quarter 2024 mein market expectations aur pichle quarter ke muqable kaafi behtareen raha, jo 5.4% year-over-year barha. Ye growth pehle ke 4.6% aur expected 5% se zyada tha. Mazboot Chinese economic performance NZD ke liye aam tor par support ka kaam karta hai.

Technical analysis ke mutabiq, NZD/USD pair mix signals show kar raha tha. Relative Strength Index (RSI) 40 level tak gir gaya, jo bearish pressure ke barhne ka ishara karta hai. Magar Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram ab bhi green bars generate kar raha tha, jo ye dikhata hai ke underlying bullish momentum ab bhi hai, magar zyada confident nahi.

RSI aur MACD ke darmiyan ye farq market sentiment ki nazakat ko highlight karta hai. Agar NZD/USD pair 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), jo is waqt qareeban 0.5600 par hai, ke qareeb consolidate karta hai, to buyers pair ko upar le jane ki koshish karenge. Pehle 0.5630 ka resistance level ho sakta hai, uske baad 0.5650 ki taraf move karne ke chances hain. Dusri taraf, agar 0.5580 support level tor diya gaya to bears ko mazbooti mil sakti hai, jo 0.5550 tak girawat ka darwaza khol sakta hai aur pair ke emerging support base ko kamzor kar sakta hai.Yh

Australian dollar ne Monday ke trading session ke pehle hisse mein apna girawat ka silsila jari rakha, takreeban 80 basis points tak neeche gaya. Yeh girawat yeh baat wazeh karti hai ke currency abhi bhi kamzori ka shikar hai aur 0.62 level ke aas-paas consolidate kar rahi hai – jo filhal ek fair value area lag raha hai. Price action yeh darust karta hai ke market mazeed is range ke andar hi hilte-julte rehne ki umeed hai. Lekin yeh hairat ki baat nahi hogi agar Australian dollar akhirkar critical 0.60 level ko test kare.

Agar current levels se rally hoti bhi hai, toh 0.6350 area, jo 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) se mazboot ban chuka hai, ek strong resistance zone ya “ceiling” ke taur par kaam karega. Yeh technical barrier aur broader bearish trend, dono hi currency ke hawale se negative sentiment ko barqarar rakhte hain.
Wasee Tanazur


Australian dollar ki performance China ki economy ke saath qareebi taur par judi hui hai, kyun ke Australia ka exports ka zyada hissa China par mabni hai. Agar China ki economy mein kisi bhi qisam ki slow down ki alamat dekhi jaye, toh Australian dollar seedha asar leta hai aur mazeed kamzor ho jata hai. Haal hi mein global economic uncertainty aur commodities ki demand mein girawat ne currency ke struggles ko aur intensify kar diya hai.
Tijarti Strategy


Is mahaul mein, fading rally – yani jab currency recover karne ki koshish kare toh us waqt bechna – ek popular approach bani hui hai. Guzishta 24 ghanton ne dikhaya ke yeh strategy market ke dynamics ke saath kitni mutabiq hai, kyun ke rallies consistently resistance hit kar ke reverse hui hain.
Nateeja


Aussie dollar ke liye outlook bearish hi hai, aur downside risks abhi bhi qaim hain. 0.60 level mazeed likely target hai, jab ke koi bhi upside move significant resistance ka samna karega 0.6350 aur 50-day EMA ke aas-paas. Currency ke China ki economic health aur global market pressures ke saath judi hone ke sabab se, rally ko short karna filhal ke mahaul mein ek mohtat strategy lagti hai.

جنوری 23 2025 کو اے یو ڈی/امریکی ڈالر کی پیشن گوئی

آسٹریلوی ڈالر لگاتار دو دنوں کے لیے اپنی ابتدائی قیمت کے طور پر اسی سطح پر بند ہوا ہے، جو کہ 0.6273 کی سطح کے ارد گرد قیمت کے استحکام کو ظاہر کرتا ہے۔ قیمت کے علاوہ، مارلن آسیلیٹر بھی مضبوط ہو رہا ہے اور افقی طور پر حرکت کر رہا ہے۔ اس سے سوال پیدا ہوتا ہے: کیا قیمت اوپر کی طرف بڑھنے کی تیاری کر رہی ہے یا نیچے کی طرف ڈوب رہی ہے؟



اگر 0.6298 پر ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. لائن ، جو کل کی اونچائی کے ساتھ ملتی ہے، کی خلاف ورزی کی جاتی ہے، تو ہم 0.6351 تک پہنچنے کا ہدف دیکھ سکتے ہیں۔ اس کے برعکس، اگر قیمت 0.6273 سے نیچے مستحکم ہو جاتی ہے، تو 0.5943 کی طرف نمایاں کمی کا قوی امکان بن جاتا ہے۔



چار گھنٹے کے چارٹ پر، قیمت اور آکیلیٹر کے درمیان فرق قیمت پر نیچے کی طرف دباؤ ڈال رہا ہے۔ تاہم، ایک قابل اعتماد سگنل کے لیے جو 0.5943 کی طرف بڑھنے کی نشاندہی کرتا ہے، قیمت کا 0.6240 کے نشان کے قریب ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. لائن سے نیچے ہونا ضروری ہے۔ اس طرح، بنیادی منظر نامہ مندی کا شکار رہتا ہے۔

تعینات کیا مراد ہے مارکیٹ کے تجزیات یہاں ارسال کیے جاتے ہیں جس کا مقصد آپ کی بیداری بڑھانا ہے، لیکن تجارت کرنے کے لئے ہدایات دینا نہیں*

AUD/USD ka outlook:

AUD/USD pair ek mushkil mahol ka samna kar rahi hai jo ke Australia ki economic uncertainty, commodities ke pressure, aur mazboot U.S. Dollar ki wajah se hai. Neeche tafseel se un forces ka zikar hai jo is waqt market ko drive kar rahi hain aur traders ko aane wale waqt mein kin cheezon par tawajju deni chahiye.
Fundamental Analysis


Australia ki Economy:
Australia ki economy par zyada focus hai, jab traders yeh sochte hain ke Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) se rate cut ka imkaan ho sakta hai. Kuch aham factors jo is outlook ko mutasir kar rahe hain:

1. Cooling Inflation:
   Australia mein inflation kam hoti nazar aa rahi hai, jo RBA ko zyada flexibility deti hai. Agar yeh trend barqarar raha, toh interest rates ko neeche lana economic activity ko support karne ke liye ek option ban sakta hai.
2. Weaker Employment Data:
   Recent employment data mein kami ne pareshaani barhayi hai. Agar job market kamzor hoti hai, toh RBA jaldi action le sakti hai.
3. Commodity Pressure:
   Australia kaafi had tak iron ore aur coal commodities par munhasir hai. Lekin, China ki demand mein kami aur construction data ki weakness ki wajah se exports par bura asar ho raha hai. Yeh sab Australian Dollar ke liye challenging mahol paida karte hain.

U.S. Dollar ka Strength:
U.S. Dollar mazboot hai aur U.S. economy ke strong data ki wajah se support ho raha hai, jaise ke strong labor market aur GDP growth. Federal Reserve ka hawkish stance bhi USD ko support kar raha hai. Jab tak global risk sentiment ya U.S. economic indicators mein koi bara tabadla nahi hota, USD mazbooti barqarar rakh sakta hai.

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Technical Analysis


Key Levels:

• Support Level: AUD/USD pair abhi critical support 0.6205 par test kar rahi hai. Agar yeh level break hota hai, toh agla target 0.6120 ho sakta hai.
• Resistance Level: 0.6385 ek aham resistance hai. Agar yeh level break hota hai, toh pair higher levels ki taraf rebound kar sakti hai.

Indicators:

• Moving Averages: Bearish momentum ko suggest karte hain, jo downside risks ko reinforce karte hain.
• RSI: Yeh dikhata hai ke pair oversold territory ki taraf ja rahi hai, jo rebound ka imkaan deti hai, lekin yeh confirm nahi ke yeh kab hoga.

Retracement levels 0.6320 par pivot point ke taur par kaam kar sakti hain, jo resistance ya support provide kar sakti hain.

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Key Events to Watch

1. Commodity Prices: Iron ore aur coal ki prices mein development Australian Dollar ke liye crucial hain. Agar inki prices aur neeche jati hain, toh AUD par aur pressure aasakta hai.
2. Central Bank Updates: Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) aur Federal Reserve (Fed) ke statements ya policy changes pair ko directly impact karenge. Traders Australia aur U.S. ke employment figures aur inflation reports par nazar rakhein.

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Nateejah:


AUD/USD pair U.S. Dollar ki strength aur Australia ki economy ke challenges ke darmiyan phansi hui hai. Ahem levels hain 0.6205 (support) aur 0.6385 (resistance). Agar support break hoti hai, toh pair 0.6120 tak gir sakti hai, lekin agar support hold hoti hai, toh recovery ka imkaan hai. Aane wale dinon mein economic data, commodity prices, aur central bank decisions volatility barha sakte hain. Traders ko market shifts par hoshiyaar rehna chahiye jo naye opportunities paida kar sakti hain.

AUD/USD chart ko dekh kar lagta hai ke market kaafi strong bearish trend mein hai jo selling pressure aur buyer confidence ki kami ko reflect karta hai. Hourly timeframe per price ne consistently lower highs aur lower lows banaye hain jo is baat ka signal hai ke sellers abhi bhi dominate kar rahe hain. Mujhe lagta hai ke 0.6160 ka support level bohot critical hai kyun ke yeh ek psychological barrier hai jahan buyers aur sellers ke darmiyan tug of war chal rahi hai.Yeh phase aksar sharp breakouts ke liye groundwork prepare karta hai, aur isi wajah se yeh level meri nazar mein hai.Low volatility indicators jaise ke Standard Deviation aur volume yeh dikhate hain ke market abhi ek bade move ke liye ready ho raha hai.Yeh indecision ka bhi signal ho sakta hai, magar yeh bhi aksar significant price movements se pehle hota hai.Moving averages kaafi important hain kyun ke price consistently unke neeche trade kar raha hai.Yeh reinforce karta hai ke downward momentum abhi bhi intact hai.Jab tak price moving averages ke upar nahi aata mujhe lagta hai ke buying risky hai.Consolidation ke is phase mein mujhe lagta hai ke dono taraf ka potential hai lekin mein confirmation ka wait karunga.Yeh consolidation ka period aksar breakout se pehle hota hai aur mujhe lagta hai ke yeh sharp move ke liye groundwork prepare kar raha hai.Price agar 0.6160 ke neeche close karta hai toh yeh selling pressure ko aur mazboot karega.Lekin agar price is zone ke upar nikalta hai aur sustain karta hai toh ek short term bullish correction ki umeed ki ja sakti hai. Mein candlestick patterns jaise ke engulfing candles ya breakout confirmations ka intezar karunga.Yeh bhi dekhunga ke volume kis taraf hai kyun ke yeh breakout ki strength ko confirm karega.Yeh waqt cautious rehne ka hai kyun ke market abhi ek turning point par lagta hai.Patience aur discipline is waqt ka sabse zaroori hissa hai aur mein risk management tools jaise tight stop losses ka istemal karunga.Mera focus technical aspects par hai aur mujhe lagta hai ke market abhi apna agla direction decide kar raha hai.

Australian dollar ne Monday ke trading session ke pehle hisse mein apna girawat ka silsila jari rakha, takreeban 80 basis points tak neeche gaya. Yeh girawat yeh baat wazeh karti hai ke currency abhi bhi kamzori ka shikar hai aur 0.62 level ke aas-paas consolidate kar rahi hai – jo filhal ek fair value area lag raha hai. Price action yeh darust karta hai ke market mazeed is range ke andar hi hilte-julte rehne ki umeed hai. Lekin yeh hairat ki baat nahi hogi agar Australian dollar akhirkar critical 0.60 level ko test kare.

Agar current levels se rally hoti bhi hai, toh 0.6350 area, jo 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) se mazboot ban chuka hai, ek strong resistance zone ya “ceiling” ke taur par kaam karega. Yeh technical barrier aur broader bearish trend, dono hi currency ke hawale se negative sentiment ko barqarar rakhte hain.
Wasee Tanazur


Australian dollar ki performance China ki economy ke saath qareebi taur par judi hui hai, kyun ke Australia ka exports ka zyada hissa China par mabni hai. Agar China ki economy mein kisi bhi qisam ki slow down ki alamat dekhi jaye, toh Australian dollar seedha asar leta hai aur mazeed kamzor ho jata hai. Haal hi mein global economic uncertainty aur commodities ki demand mein girawat ne currency ke struggles ko aur intensify kar diya hai.
Tijarti Strategy


Is mahaul mein, fading rally – yani jab currency recover karne ki koshish kare toh us waqt bechna – ek popular approach bani hui hai. Guzishta 24 ghanton ne dikhaya ke yeh strategy market ke dynamics ke saath kitni mutabiq hai, kyun ke rallies consistently resistance hit kar ke reverse hui hain.
Nateeja


Aussie dollar ke liye outlook bearish hi hai, aur downside risks abhi bhi qaim hain. 0.60 level mazeed likely target hai, jab ke koi bhi upside move significant resistance ka samna karega 0.6350 aur 50-day EMA ke aas-paas. Currency ke China ki economic health aur global market pressures ke saath judi hone ke sabab se, rally ko short karna filhal ke mahaul mein ek mohtat strategy lagti hai

China ke economic statistics ke jumay ke din elaan ke baad, Australian dollar (AUD) ne US dollar (USD) ke muqablay mein halka sa mazbooti dikhayi. 2024 ke teesray quarter mein 4.6% ke izafay ke baad, China ka GDP 5.4% year-over-year barh gaya chothay quarter mein. Yeh data market consensus ke 5% ke andazay se kaafi behtar tha.

Quarter-over-quarter basis par Chinese GDP rate Q4 2024 mein 1.6% barh gaya, jo ke pehle wale quarter ke 0.9% izafay se zyada tha aur yeh andazay ke mutabiq 1.6% tha. December ke annual retail sales 3.7% barh gayi, jo ke andazay ke 3.5% aur pichlay mahine ke 3% se behtar hai, jabke industrial production 6.2% pe aayi, jo ke 5.4% ke andazay aur November ke 5.4% se zyada thi.

Australia ki baat karein toh, seasonally adjusted unemployment rate November ke 3.9% se barh kar December mein 4.0% ho gayi, jo ke market ke andazay ke mutabiq thi. Lekin employment growth December mein 56.3K tak barh gayi, jo market ke andazay (15.0K) se bohot zyada thi aur November ke 28.2K (jo ke pehle 35.6K update hui thi) se bhi behtar thi.

ABS ke chief of labor statistics, Bjorn Jarvis, ne kaha: "Employment-to-population ratio 0.1 percentage points barh kar naye record 64.5% tak pahunch gayi. Yeh data pre-COVID-19 levels se 2.3 percentage points zyada aur ek saal pehle ke muqablay mein 0.5 percentage points zyada hai. Employment aur unemployment ke izafay ke natije mein participation rate bhi barh gaya, jo ke un logon ka proportion hai jo kaam kar rahe hain ya kaam dhoondh rahe hain."







Technical Outlook Jumay ke din, AUD/USD pair kareeb 0.6220 par trade kar raha hai aur daily chart ke declining channel ko todhne ki koshish mein hai. Agar yeh breakthrough hota hai, toh maujooda negative bias kamzor ho sakta hai. 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) bhi upward trend dikhata hai jo 50 level ki taraf barhne ka ishara deta hai, jo ke recovery momentum ka signal hai.

0.6220 ke kareeb, declining channel ka upar ka hisa AUD/USD pair ke liye foran resistance banata hai. Neeche ki taraf, 14-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) jo 0.6213 par hai aur nine-day EMA jo 0.6206 par hai, early support faraham karte hain. Ek mazboot support level kareeb 0.5920 mark par hai, jo ke declining channel ka neeche ka

AUD/USD pair is waqt lagbhag 0.6220 par trade kar raha hai Thursday ke din, aur yeh daily chart par descending channel ke upar break karne ki koshish kar raha hai. Agar yeh break successful hoti hai, toh yeh bearish bias ko kamzor kar sakti hai. 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) dheere dheere 50 level ki taraf barh raha hai, jo yeh signal de raha hai ke market mein recovery ka process shuru ho sakta hai.

Is waqt AUD/USD pair ka pehla resistance descending channel ki upper boundary ke paas hai, jo lagbhag 0.6220 ke aas-paas mojood hai. Yeh resistance level kaafi important hai, kyunki agar price is level ke upar breakout karta hai, toh yeh bullish momentum ko mazboot kar sakta hai aur market mein upward movement ka signal de sakta hai. Traders ka focus is baat par hoga ke price kya iss level ke upar sustain kar sakta hai ya nahi.

Support levels ki baat ki jaye toh, AUD/USD pair pehla support 14-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke aas-paas test kar sakta hai, jo abhi lagbhag 0.6214 par hai. Iske baad dusra support 9-day EMA ke paas hai, jo takreeban 0.6206 ke level par hai. Yeh short-term EMAs support ke lihaaz se kaafi aham hai, kyunki trending markets mein yeh dynamic support ka kaam karte hain.

Agar yeh support levels hold nahi karte, toh price descending channel ki lower boundary ki taraf gir sakta hai, jo takreeban 0.5920 ke kareeb hai. Yeh level kaafi significant hai, aur agar price iske neeche girta hai toh bearish trend mazboot ho sakta hai. Yeh pair abhi ek critical stage par hai, aur inhi levels par focus karte hue price action ko closely monitor karna zaroori hai.

China ke economic statistics ke jumay ke din elaan ke baad, Australian dollar (AUD) ne US dollar (USD) ke muqablay mein halka sa mazbooti dikhayi. 2024 ke teesray quarter mein 4.6% ke izafay ke baad, China ka GDP 5.4% year-over-year barh gaya chothay quarter mein. Yeh data market consensus ke 5% ke andazay se kaafi behtar tha.

Quarter-over-quarter basis par Chinese GDP rate Q4 2024 mein 1.6% barh gaya, jo ke pehle wale quarter ke 0.9% izafay se zyada tha aur yeh andazay ke mutabiq 1.6% tha. December ke annual retail sales 3.7% barh gayi, jo ke andazay ke 3.5% aur pichlay mahine ke 3% se behtar hai, jabke industrial production 6.2% pe aayi, jo ke 5.4% ke andazay aur November ke 5.4% se zyada thi.

Australia ki baat karein toh, seasonally adjusted unemployment rate November ke 3.9% se barh kar December mein 4.0% ho gayi, jo ke market ke andazay ke mutabiq thi. Lekin employment growth December mein 56.3K tak barh gayi, jo market ke andazay (15.0K) se bohot zyada thi aur November ke 28.2K (jo ke pehle 35.6K update hui thi) se bhi behtar thi.

ABS ke chief of labor statistics, Bjorn Jarvis, ne kaha: "Employment-to-population ratio 0.1 percentage points barh kar naye record 64.5% tak pahunch gayi. Yeh data pre-COVID-19 levels se 2.3 percentage points zyada aur ek saal pehle ke muqablay mein 0.5 percentage points zyada hai. Employment aur unemployment ke izafay ke natije mein participation rate bhi barh gaya, jo ke un logon ka proportion hai jo kaam kar rahe hain ya kaam dhoondh rahe hain."



Technical Outlook Jumay ke din, AUD/USD pair kareeb 0.6220 par trade kar raha hai aur daily chart ke declining channel ko todhne ki koshish mein hai. Agar yeh breakthrough hota hai, toh maujooda negative bias kamzor ho sakta hai. 14-day Relative Strength Index ( RSI) bhi upward trend dikhata hai jo 50 level ki taraf barhne ka ishara deta hai, jo ke recovery momentum ka signal hai.

0.6220 ke kareeb, declining channel ka upar ka hisa AUD/USD pair ke liye foran resistance banata hai. Neeche ki taraf, 14-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) jo 0.6213 par hai aur nine-day EMA jo 0.6206 par hai, early support faraham karte hain. Ek mazboot support level kareeb 0.5920 mark par hai, jo ke declining channel ka neeche ka

جنوری 27 2025 کو اے یو ڈی/امریکی ڈالر کی پیشن گوئی

جمعہ کو آسٹریلوی ڈالر کا توازن اور ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. انڈیکیٹر لائن سے اوپر اٹھنا کمزور یا غلط معلوم ہوتا ہے۔ آج کے پیسفک سیشن کے دوران، جب کہ آسٹریلیائی مارکیٹ قومی تعطیل کے لیے بند ہے، قیمت ان خطوط سے نیچے گر گئی ہے۔



اگر 0.6273 پر سپورٹ لیول کی خلاف ورزی ہوتی ہے تو، اے یو ڈی/امریکی ڈالر جوڑا ممکنہ طور پر 0.5943 کے ہدف سپورٹ لیول کی طرف اپنی کمی کو تیز کر دے گا۔ بدھ کو جنوری میں طے شدہ فیڈرل ریزرو کے اجلاس سے اس تحریک کی مزید حمایت کی جا سکتی ہے۔ چار گھنٹے کے چارٹ پر، قیمت اور مارلن آسیلیٹر دونوں نے ایک نیا موڑ بنایا ہے۔

مارلن آسیلیٹر پہلے ہی منفی علاقے میں داخل ہو چکا ہے۔ تاہم، غور کرنے کے لیے ایک اہم عنصر ہے: افتتاحی خلا ابھی تک پُر نہیں ہوا ہے۔ قیمت کے پاس ابھی بھی اس فرق کو ختم کرنے کے لیے کچھ وقت ہے، خاص طور پر چونکہ 0.6273 سپورٹ لیول کو ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. لائن کے ذریعے تقویت ملی ہے، جس سے یہ امکان نہیں ہے کہ مناسب استحکام کے بغیر سطح کی خلاف ورزی کی جائے۔



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