ای aud/usd کی تجزیہ اور مارکیٹ کے رجحانات

AUD/USD ka darja signal line se neeche tha, aur is ne bearish divergence ka zikar kiya, jo ke MACD par nazar aa raha tha. Chart par aik reversal pattern bana, jo ascending wedge tha, aur ye neeche ki taraf toota. Jab price 0.6909 ke level ke neeche consolidate hui, to ye aik sell signal bana. Behtareen bechnay ka mauqa tab mila jab ye level neeche se retest hui aur resistance ban gayi, jo ke growth peak par mirror image bana. Ye sab kuch US dollar ki taqat ki wajah se hua, jo ke pichlay hafte major currencies ke khilaf mazboot hui. Agar meri soch theek sabit hoti hai, to price 0.6847 ke accumulation point tak barh sakti hai. Agar ye scenario sahi hota hai, aur agar AUD/USD ka level 0.6752 support bana rehta hai, to humein 0.6752 se 0.6928 tak ka dramatic rebound dekhne ko mil sakta hai, jahan significant buying interest maujood hai.
Price shuru mein neeche gayi lekin US employment data ki release hone tak wo stabilize rahi, jisme non-agricultural sector mein behtareen tabdeeliyan dekhi gayi. Khaaskar, average hourly wage mein izafa hua aur unemployment rate ghat gaya. Halankeh in figures par shak karna samajh se baahir nahi, lekin US dollar ne mazbooti se react kiya aur doosri global currencies ke khilaf taqat hasil ki.
Price ab us ascending support line par hai jo ke daily waves ke neeche banai gayi thi. Is waqt, CCI indicator lower overheating zone se upar ki taraf ja raha hai, jo slight bullish divergence ko darshata hai. Ye scenario upward correction ka aik mazboot signal hai, jo ke 0.6838 ya is se zyada resistance level tak ja sakta hai. Jab hum chart ki baai taraf dekhtay hain, to humein pata chalta hai ke 0.6786 aik technical support level hai, na ke aik volume level.
Market ke movements kabhi kabhi puppeteer's strategies ko darshate hain, kyunke haal ke statistics ye darshate hain ke volume levels par hit karna zyada pasand kiya ja raha hai
Technical analysis ke lehaz se, agar pair 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) se neechay girta hai, to pair ko challenges ka samna ho sakta hai. Is level ka breach bearish shift ko trigger kar sakta hai, jo pair ko support level 0.6755 ki taraf lay jaye ga. Agar pair mazid girta hai, to agla ahm level jo dekhna ho ga wo 0.6671 hoga, jo downward momentum ko capitalize karne wale traders ke liye ek significant throwback point ban sakta hai.

ar upward pressure aa raha hai jabkay investors closely Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) ki hawkish monetary policy stance ko dekh rahe hain. Dosray quarter mein strong wage growth ke bawajood, RBA ke Governor Michele Bullock ne aglay chhay maheenon mein rate cuts ke imkaan ko rad kar diya hai. Bullock ne yeh wazeh kiya ke Australian central bank inflation ke khatrey par hamesha nazar rakhta hai aur agar zarurat hui to rates mazeed barhane ke liye tayar hai. Iss waqt AUD/USD pair 0.6939 ke area ke qareeb trade kar raha hai, jo market ka Australian Dollar par confidence reflect karta hai. Australia ke Treasurer Jim Chalmers ne RBA ke iss analysis par ehtiraz kiya ke mulk ki economy bohat zyada mazboot hai. RBA ka ye yaqeen hai ke government ke baray budgets inflation ko lambi muddat tak barqarar rakhnay mein hissa daal rahe hain, lekin Chalmers ka kehna hai ke economy central bank ke khayalat se zyada balanced hai. Iss ikhtilaf ne investors ke liye mazeed complexity paida kar di hai jo mulk ke economy ke mustaqbil aur Australian Dollar ki value ke baray mein andaza lagane ki koshish kar rahe hain. AUD/USD ke Fundamentals:

US Dollar ko masail ka samna hai jab ke Wednesday ko Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release hone ke baad July ki US inflation rate mein miyana darja ka izafa dekhne ko mila. Iss ne investors mein Federal Reserve (Fed) ke aglay qadam ke baray mein speculation ko janam diya. Traders ka ziada tawaqo hai ke September mein ek halka 25 basis point rate cut hoga, jiska imkaan 60% hai, lekin CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq 50 basis point cut ka bhi 36% imkaan hai. Aanay walay US Initial Jobless Claims aur Retail Sales data ko bhi anticipate kiya ja raha hai jo market sentiment ko mazeed asar daal sakta hai.

Speculation mein mazeed izafa karte huay, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid ne kaha ke agar inflation subdued rahi to monetary policy ko reduce karna "munasib" ho sakta hai. Schmid ne point out kiya ke abhi Fed ki policy itni restrictive nahi hai aur halan ke Fed apne 2% inflation target ke qareeb hai, lekin ab tak apna maqsood pura nahi kiya. Iss outlook ne US monetary policy ke mustaqbil par mukhtalif rai paida ki hai, khas tor par jab ke global economy abhi bhi uncertainties ka samna kar rahi hai

AUD/USD ka darja signal line se neeche tha, aur is ne bearish divergence ka zikar kiya, jo ke MACD par nazar aa raha tha. Chart par aik reversal pattern bana, jo ascending wedge tha, aur ye neeche ki taraf toota. Jab price 0.6909 ke level ke neeche consolidate hui, to ye aik sell signal bana. Behtareen bechnay ka mauqa tab mila jab ye level neeche se retest hui aur resistance ban gayi, jo ke growth peak par mirror image bana. Ye sab kuch US dollar ki taqat ki wajah se hua, jo ke pichlay hafte major currencies ke khilaf mazboot hui.
Agar meri soch theek sabit hoti hai, to price 0.6847 ke accumulation point tak barh sakti hai. Agar ye scenario sahi hota hai, aur agar AUD/USD ka level 0.6752 support bana rehta hai, to humein 0.6752 se 0.6928 tak ka dramatic rebound dekhne ko mil sakta hai, jahan significant buying interest maujood hai.
Price shuru mein neeche gayi lekin US employment data ki release hone tak wo stabilize rahi, jisme non-agricultural sector mein behtareen tabdeeliyan dekhi gayi. Khaaskar, average hourly wage mein izafa hua aur unemployment rate ghat gaya. Halankeh in figures par shak karna samajh se baahir nahi, lekin US dollar ne mazbooti se react kiya aur doosri global currencies ke khilaf taqat hasil ki.



Price ab us ascending support line par hai jo ke daily waves ke neeche banai gayi thi. Is waqt, CCI indicator lower overheating zone se upar ki taraf ja raha hai, jo slight bullish divergence ko darshata hai. Ye scenario upward correction ka aik mazboot signal hai, jo ke 0.6838 ya is se zyada resistance level tak ja sakta hai. Jab hum chart ki baai taraf dekhtay hain, to humein pata chalta hai ke 0.6786 aik technical support level hai, na ke aik volume level. Market ke movements kabhi kabhi puppeteer's strategies ko darshate hain, kyunke haal ke statistics ye darshate hain ke volume levels par hit karna zyada pasand kiya ja raha hai Technical analysis ke lehaz se, agar pair 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) se neechay girta hai, to pair ko challenges ka samna ho sakta hai. Is level ka breach bearish shift ko trigger kar sakta hai, jo pair ko support level 0.6755 ki taraf lay jaye ga. Agar pair mazid girta hai, to agla ahm level jo dekhna ho ga wo 0.6671 hoga, jo downward momentum ko capitalize karne wale traders ke liye ek significant throwback point ban sakta hai.

Monday ko release hone wale kamzor Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data ke bawajood AUD ne US Dollar (USD ) ke muqable mein achi position hasil ki hai. AUD/USD ka strong hona China ke central bank PBoC ke banking system mein liquidity inject karne se bhi related ho sakta hai, kyun ke Australia aur China ke darmiyan qareebi trade relation hai, aur Chinese economy mein developments ka Australian markets par bara asar ho sakta hai.PBoC ne 14-day reverse repo ke zariye banking system mein CNY 74.5 billion ka injection kiya, aur is dauran rate ko 1.95% se kam karke 1.85% kiya gaya. Iske ilawa, PBoC ne 7-day reverse repo ke zariye bhi CNY 160.1 billion ka injection kiya, jisme rate 1.7% par stable raha.AUD ko hawkish expectations se bhi faida mil raha hai, jo ke RBA ki aanay wali interest rate decision ke hawalay se hain, jo Tuesday ko hone wali hai. Expect kiya ja raha hai ke RBA apni Official Cash Rate (OCR) ko 4.35% par stable rakhegi, jo mazboot labor market aur inflationary pressures ko madde nazar rakhtay hue hai. Doosri taraf, US Dollar (USD) ki qeemat mein kami ho sakti hai kyun ke Federal Reserve (Fed) ke policymakers agle saal 2024 mein 75 basis points (bps) ke rate cuts predict kar rahe hain, jab ke last week unho ne aggressive 50 basis points ka rate cut kiya tha, jis se range 4.75-5.00% ho gayi hai.Monday ko AUD/USD pair 0.6820 ke qareeb trade kar raha tha. Daily chart ki technical analysis yeh dikhati hai ke pair ascending channel pattern ke lower boundary par test kar raha hai, jo ke bullish bias ki kamzori ko zahir karta hai. But 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) ab bhi 50 se ooper hai, is liye aglay price movement se pair ke trend ka behtar andaza hoga. Is waqt AUD/USD pair ascending channel ke lower boundary par test kar raha hai, jo ke 0.6839 ke nine-month high ke qareeb hai, jo 19 September ko dekha gaya tha. Agar is level se bounce hota hai, to pair upper boundary tak pohanch sakta hai, jo 0.6890 level ke qareeb hai. Neeche ki taraf, AUD/USD pair ko support 0.6771 par nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) par mil sakta hai, aur agla aham support psychological level 0.6700 par hoga

# China ki Inflation Data aur AUD/USD par Asar

## Inflation Data aur Deflationary Spiral ka Khatar

September ke liye China ka naye inflation data ne deflationary spiral ka khatar barh diya hai. Yeh nayi data is baat ki taraf ishara karti hai ke agar halat na sudhri toh deflation ka silsila shuru ho sakta hai. Chinese policymakers ne nayi fiscal stimulus policies ke liye rhetoric ka istemal jaari rakha, lekin in policies ki tatbeeri ya implementation ke liye koi wazeh tafsilat nahi di gayi.

## Policy-Making Process par Aitbaar ka Girna

Agar China ke policy-making process par aitbaar girta hai, toh is ka negative asar AUD/USD par dekhne ko mil sakta hai. Is report ka yeh hissa pichli report "AUD/USD: Aussie's Recent Recovery May Face Ceiling Below 0.6900" ka follow-up hai, jo 2 September 2024 ko publish hui thi. Is report mein humne dekha tha ke AUD/USD ne 11 September ko 0.6622 par aik low banaya, jo ke 200-day moving average support 0.6600 ke qareeb tha. Iske baad yeh price 0.6900 ke key intermediate-term resistance tak pohanchi, lekin phir se gir gaya, aur 30 September ko intraday high 0.6943 par pahuncha.

## AUD/USD ki Recent Movement

Pichle do hafton mein, AUD/USD ne -3.3% ki kami dekhi aur 10 October ko 0.6701 ka aik low banaya. Iski nayi kamzori ka taluq indirectly Chinese economy ki halat se hai, jo industrial commodities jese ke iron ore ki demand mein kami ki wajah se hui hai. Iron ore Australia ka key export hai jo China ko bheja jata hai, aur iski demand ka girna Australian economy par asar daal raha hai.

## China ki Fiscal Stimulus ki Baatain

Abhi tak China se nayi fiscal stimulus ka koi wazeh aur concrete amount nahi aaya. 26 September ko, Politburo, jo ke China ka top decision-making body hai, ne ek "strongly worded" message diya tha jo ke property market ki mushkilat ko kam karne ke liye mazeed stimulus measures ka waada karta tha. Isne market participants ko umeed di ke Golden Week public holiday ke baad do se teen trillion yuan ke naye fiscal stimulus measures announce kiye jayenge.

Lekin 8 October ko National Development and Reforms ki press briefing aur 12 October ko Treasury ki briefing mein koi khaas ummeed nahi mili. Yeh briefing detail aur scope mein kafi tepid thi aur kisi specific amount ke naye fiscal stimulus ka elan nahi kiya gaya. Iske bajaye, in briefings ne rhetorical messages ka istemal kiya jo forward guidance ke liye the.

## Market ki Reactions

Market ki taraf se yeh umeed thi ke stimulus measures se property market ko faida hoga aur is se overall economy ko behtar banane mein madad milegi. Lekin jab specific amounts aur implementation details nahi di gayi, toh market participants ne is par shak kiya. Is shak ki wajah se AUD/USD par bhi asar aaya, jo ke already weak situation mein tha.

## Aane Wali Challenges

Chinese economy ki halat, jismein property market ka girna aur demand ki kami shamil hai, ne investor confidence ko kam kar diya hai. Is se AUD/USD par pressure barh gaya hai. Agar China apne fiscal policies ko jaldi implement nahi karta, toh yeh situation aur bhi kharab ho sakti hai, aur iska asar directly Australian economy par hoga.

## Conclusion

In sab halaton ko dekhte hue, AUD/USD ki movement kaafi uncertain lagti hai. Inflation data ke khilaf economic policies ko tayyar karna zaroori hai, warna deflationary spiral ki taraf ja sakte hain. Chinese policymakers ko ab zaroori hai ke woh apni fiscal stimulus ki details foran share karein taake market ki uncertainty ko kam kiya ja sake. Is se investor confidence barh sakta hai aur AUD/USD ko support mil sakta hai. Lekin agar yeh situation jaisi hai waisi rahi, toh 0.6900 ka resistance level kayam rahega, aur AUD/USD ko niche ki taraf jaane ka khatar hai.

Is waqt, market participants ko in developments ko closely monitor karna chahiye aur apne trading strategies ko accordingly adjust karna chahiye. AUD/USD ke liye yeh waqt kaafi critical hai, aur jo bhi nayi updates aayengi, unka asar price movement par zaroor hoga.

USD pair mazboot hai, jab ke expect kiya ja raha hai ke RBA apni Official Cash Rate ko Tuesday ko 4.35% par stable rakhega.Monday ko release hone wale kamzor Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data ke bawajood AUD ne US Dollar (USD ) ke muqable mein achi position hasil ki hai. AUD/USD ka strong hona China ke central bank PBoC ke banking system mein liquidity inject karne se bhi related ho sakta hai, kyun ke Australia aur China ke darmiyan qareebi trade relation hai, aur Chinese economy mein developments ka Australian markets par bara asar ho sakta hai.PBoC ne 14-day reverse repo ke zariye banking system mein CNY 74.5 billion ka injection kiya, aur is dauran rate ko 1.95% se kam karke 1.85% kiya gaya. Iske ilawa, PBoC ne 7-day reverse repo ke zariye bhi CNY 160.1 billion ka injection kiya, jisme rate 1.7% par stable raha.AUD ko hawkish expectations se bhi faida mil raha hai, jo ke RBA ki aanay wali interest rate decision ke hawalay se hain, jo Tuesday ko hone wali hai. Expect kiya ja raha hai ke RBA apni Official Cash Rate (OCR) ko 4.35% par stable rakhegi, jo mazboot labor market aur inflationary pressures ko madde nazar rakhtay hue hai. Doosri taraf, US Dollar (USD) ki qeemat mein kami ho sakti hai kyun ke Federal Reserve (Fed) ke policymakers agle saal 2024 mein 75 basis points (bps) ke rate cuts predict kar rahe hain, jab ke last week unho ne aggressive 50 basis points ka rate cut kiya tha, jis se range 4.75-5.00% ho gayi hai.Monday ko AUD/USD pair 0.6820 ke qareeb trade kar raha tha. Daily chart ki technical analysis yeh dikhati hai ke pair ascending channel pattern ke lower boundary par test kar raha hai, jo ke bullish bias ki kamzori ko zahir karta hai. But 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) ab bhi 50 se ooper hai, is liye aglay price movement se pair ke trend ka behtar andaza hoga. Is waqt AUD/USD pair ascending channel ke lower boundary par test kar raha hai, jo ke 0.6839 ke nine-month high ke qareeb hai, jo 19 September ko dekha gaya tha. Agar is level se bounce hota hai, to pair upper boundary tak pohanch sakta hai, jo 0.6890 level ke qareeb hai. Neeche ki taraf, AUD/USD pair ko support 0.6771 par nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) par mil sakta hai, aur agla aham support psychological level 0.6700 par hoga. Agar is se neeche break hota hai, to pair six-week low 0.6622 ki taraf ja sakta hai

Fundamental Overview of AUD/USD

AUD/USD ne Monday ko girawat dekhi jab China ke sensitive trade data ka announcement hua. AUD/USD 0.45% gir kar 0.6720 tak pohch gaya. Australian dollar ka yeh girna zyada tar is wajah se tha ke traders ne China ke taaza stimulus measures se mutmaeen nahi hue aur is se economy par asar ko lekar chinta barh gayi. Australian dollar ko Monday ke din kamzor Chinese export data ne nuksaan pohchaya, lekin AUD/USD ne kuch losses ko recover karte hue 0.6730 ke zone mein wapas aane mein kamiyabi hasil ki. Is Monday ke US session mein AUD/USD ke izafa ko non-voting Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari ke bayanat se munsoob kiya ja raha hai, jo keh rahe the ke "mazeed chhoti cuts" mumkin hain. Aane wale chand mahino mein central bank ke benchmark activity prices trading ke liye kaafi attractive ho sakte hain. Lekin Tuesday ko, Australian dollar US dollar ke muqablay mein mazid neechay raha, kyunke Australia ka sabse bara trading partner, China, ki currency ki kamzori ka rujhan dekhne ko mila.

Technical Overview of AUD/USD

Tuesday ko AUD/USD lagbhag 0.6730 par trade kar raha hai. Agar is level ke upar koi positive breakout hota hai, to yeh bearish se bullish momentum ke badalne ka indication ho sakta hai, magar yeh bhi dikhata hai ke bearish momentum ab bhi baqi hai. AUD/USD ne apne girte hue channel ko tor diya hai. Is soorat mein 0.6800 ka important psychological resistance pehla mukabla ho sakta hai, jabke 0.6758 ke qareeb bhi resistance ka imkana hai. Agar AUD/USD girawat ka silsila jari rakhta hai, to yeh 0.6630 ke descending boundary ko target kar sakta hai. 11 September ko jo eight-week low, 0.6622, tha, us ne support provide kiya tha. Pichle kuch dinon se AUD/USD lateral trading kar raha hai, magar overall trend ab bhi negative hi hai. Resistance levels 0.6760, 0.6780, aur 0.6800 par hain, jabke support levels 0.6720, 0.6700, aur 0.6680 par hain. Agar yeh 0.6720 ke area se neeche break hota hai, to pair ko mazeed nuqsan ka samna ho sakta hai.

"Difficulties strengthen the mind, as labor does the body." – Seneca

instrument khareedne ke liye bohat high ho chuka hai. Jaise jaise waqt guzarta hai aur device ka consensus warning deta hai, yeh zahir hota hai ke bulls ab zyada active ho gaye hain, aur ab buying ko tarjeeh deni chahiye. Hicken Ashi candlesticks, jo ke price levels ko define karti hain aur regular Japanese candlesticks se mukhtalif hain, meri madad karti hain ke main har reversal moment, corrective rollbacks, aur impulse shootouts ko barwaqt pehchan sakoon. Saath hi, TMA (Triangular Moving Average) linear channel indicator bhi bohat zyada madadgar hai, jo ke chart par support aur resistance ke advanced marks draw karta hai. Yeh indicator us waqt moving assets ke limits ko zahir karta hai jab wo apne maqam par pohonch jata hai. Indicators ko close karne aur deal ko finalize karne ke liye main RSI oscillator ka use karta hoon, jo ke overbought aur oversold zones ko zahir karta hai. Yeh tareeqa instruments ki buying aur selling ko priority dene mein madad karta hai aur ghalat market entries se bachata hai. Ab jo main chart par dekh raha hoon, Hicken Ash candles ka rang ab blue mein badal gaya hai, jo zahir karta hai ke ab bullish mode zyada dominate karega, aur yeh waqt hai ke long trades execute kiye jayen. Prices ne linear channel ke lower line ko cross kar diya tha, lekin neechay ka sabse kam darja choonay ke baad wapas channel ke center line par aa gayi hain. Basement RSI indicator bhi ab buying signal de raha hai, jo yeh zahir karta hai ke ab yeh trade karne ke liye achha waqt hai. Main expect kar raha hoon ke price 0.69500 ke maqam tak barh sakti hai jo ke channel ke upper border par hai. Jab order value zone mein dakhil ho jaye, to breakeven ki taraf move karne ka mashwara hai kyun ke market kabhi kabhi humari expectations ko ghalat moves se influence karta hai. Ab agar hum AUD/USD currency pair ke price behavior ka tajziya karein, to Friday ko AUD/USD pair H1 pivot 0.6835 tak nahi pohonch saka tha aur growth 0.6830 par ruk gayi thi. Lekin support level 0.6783 ne price ko zyada girne se roka. Session 0.6816 se rebound ke saath khatam hua, lekin H1 pivot 7/8 (0.6804) tak gir gaya, jab ke M15 time frame bullish raha. Yeh bullish setup yeh batata hai ke Monday se growth 0.6830 tak jaari reh sakti hai. Agar price neechay 0.6790 ke level se toot jata hai, to meri strategy badal jayegi aur phir yeh decline 0.6769 aur 0.6749 ke zone tak

consensus warning deta hai, yeh zahir hota hai ke bulls ab zyada active ho gaye hain, aur ab buying ko tarjeeh deni chahiye. Hicken Ashi candlesticks, jo ke price levels ko define karti hain aur regular Japanese candlesticks se mukhtalif hain, meri madad karti hain ke main har reversal moment, corrective rollbacks, aur impulse shootouts ko barwaqt pehchan sakoon. Saath hi, TMA (Triangular Moving Average) linear channel indicator bhi bohat zyada madadgar hai, jo ke chart par support aur resistance ke advanced marks draw karta hai. Yeh indicator us waqt moving assets ke limits ko zahir karta hai jab wo apne maqam par pohonch jata hai. Indicators ko close karne aur deal ko finalize karne ke liye main RSI oscillator ka use karta hoon, jo ke overbought aur oversold zones ko zahir karta hai. Yeh tareeqa instruments ki buying aur selling ko priority dene mein madad karta hai aur ghalat market entries se bachata hai. Ab jo main chart par dekh raha hoon, Hicken Ash candles ka rang ab blue mein badal gaya hai, jo zahir karta hai ke ab bullish mode zyada dominate karega, aur yeh waqt hai ke long trades execute kiye jayen. Prices ne linear channel ke lower line ko cross kar diya tha, lekin neechay ka sabse kam darja choonay ke baad wapas channel ke center line par aa gayi hain. Basement RSI indicator bhi ab buying signal de raha hai, jo yeh zahir karta hai ke ab yeh trade karne ke liye achha waqt hai. Main expect kar raha hoon ke price 0.69500 ke maqam tak barh sakti hai jo ke channel ke upper border par hai. Jab order value zone mein dakhil ho jaye, to breakeven ki taraf move karne ka mashwara hai kyun ke market kabhi kabhi humari expectations ko ghalat moves se influence karta hai. Ab agar hum AUD/USD currency pair ke price behavior ka tajziya karein, to Friday ko AUD/USD pair H1 pivot 0.6835 tak nahi pohonch saka tha aur growth 0.6830 par ruk gayi thi. Lekin support level 0.6783 ne price ko zyada girne se roka. Session 0.6816 se rebound ke saath khatam hua, lekin H1 pivot 7/8 (0.6804) tak gir gaya, jab ke M15 time frame bullish raha. Yeh bullish setup yeh batata hai ke Monday se growth 0.6830 tak jaari reh sakti

USD pair mazboot hai, jab ke expect kiya ja raha hai ke RBA apni Official Cash Rate ko Tuesday ko 4.35% par stable rakhega.Monday ko release hone wale kamzor Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data ke bawajood AUD ne US Dollar (USD ) ke muqable mein achi position hasil ki hai. AUD/USD ka strong hona China ke central bank PBoC ke banking system mein liquidity inject karne se bhi related ho sakta hai, kyun ke Australia aur China ke darmiyan qareebi trade relation hai, aur Chinese economy mein developments ka Australian markets par bara asar ho sakta hai.PBoC ne 14-day reverse repo ke zariye banking system mein CNY 74.5 billion ka injection kiya, aur is dauran rate ko 1.95% se kam karke 1.85% kiya gaya. Iske ilawa, PBoC ne 7-day reverse repo ke zariye bhi CNY 160.1 billion ka injection kiya, jisme rate 1.7% par stable raha.AUD ko hawkish expectations se bhi faida mil raha hai, jo ke RBA ki aanay wali interest rate decision ke hawalay se hain, jo Tuesday ko hone wali hai. Expect kiya ja raha hai ke RBA apni Official Cash Rate (OCR) ko 4.35% par stable rakhegi, jo mazboot labor market aur inflationary pressures ko madde nazar rakhtay hue hai. Doosri taraf, US Dollar (USD) ki qeemat mein kami ho sakti hai kyun ke Federal Reserve (Fed) ke policymakers agle saal 2024 mein 75 basis points (bps) ke rate cuts predict kar rahe hain, jab ke last week unho ne aggressive 50 basis points ka rate cut kiya tha, jis se range 4.75-5.00% ho gayi hai.Monday ko AUD/USD pair 0.6820 ke qareeb trade kar raha tha. Daily chart ki technical analysis yeh dikhati hai ke pair ascending channel pattern ke lower boundary par test kar raha hai, jo ke bullish bias ki kamzori ko zahir karta hai. But 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) ab bhi 50 se ooper hai, is liye aglay price movement se pair ke trend ka behtar andaza hoga. Is waqt AUD/USD pair ascending channel ke lower boundary par test kar raha hai, jo ke 0.6839 ke nine-month high ke qareeb hai, jo 19 September ko dekha gaya tha. Agar is level se bounce hota hai, to pair upper boundary tak pohanch sakta hai, jo 0.6890 level ke qareeb hai. Neeche ki taraf, AUD/USD pair ko support 0.6771 par nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) par mil sakta hai, aur agla aham support psychological level 0.6700 par hoga. Agar is se neeche break hota hai, to pair six-week low 0.6622 ki taraf ja sakta hai downward slope par hain, MACD oscillator ke volumes kam ho rahe hain, Relative Strength Index (RSI) 49 se neeche hai, aur trend filter oscillator ne laal rang le liya hai, jo bears ke dominant hone ka saboot deta hai. Iss waqt selling ko tarjeeh di jani chahiye. Agar yeh girawat jari rehti hai, to agla target level 0.6621 hoga. Agar bears is threshold ko tod dete hain, to quotes mazeed gir kar 0.6560 tak ja sakti

**AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Roman Urdu Mein Jaiza**

AUD/USD ke H4 time frame par, is waqt AUD/USD ka rate 0.6728 par trade ho raha hai. Price ki movement ab noticeable weakness dikhati hai, aur technical point of view se yeh downward momentum barqarar rehne ke imkaanat hain. Iska matlab hai ke sellers ab bhi market par haavi hain, aur aur zyada downside pressure ka chance zyada hai. Agar hum recent price action ka ghor se jaiza lein, to hum dekh sakte hain ke pair steady decline mein hai, jo Australian dollar ki weakness ko reflect karta hai US dollar ke muqable mein.

Is downward trend ke peeche mukhtalif wajahein ho sakti hain, jismein Australia se kamzor economic data ya phir US dollar ki strength shamil ho sakti hai. US mein economic conditions ka behter hona ya rising interest rate expectations bhi isko asar kar rahein hain. Yeh fundamental factors, technical structure ke sath mil kar bearish sentiment ko aur barhawa de rahe hain.

H4 chart par, pair ne lower highs aur lower lows banaye hain, jo ek classic indication hai ke downtrend chal raha hai. Sellers ne price ko key support levels ke neeche push kar diya hai, jo bearish outlook ko mazid mazboot banata hai. Market mein sellers ka zyada raaj hai, aur koi bhi short-term rally jaldi se sell off ho rahi hai.

**Key Support aur Resistance Levels ka Jaiza**

Is waqt traders aur analysts critical support areas par nazar rakhe hue hain, kyun ke agar price in levels ke neeche break karta hai, to bearish momentum mazeed tezi se barh sakta hai. Agla immediate support zone 0.6700 ke qareeb ho sakta hai, jo ek psychological level hai aur yeh buyers ko attract kar sakta hai. Magar agar yeh level hold nahi karta, to hum mazeed declines dekh sakte hain, jismein agla major support 0.6650 ke aas paas hai.

Dusri taraf, agar buyers current levels ko defend karte hain, to humein kuch consolidation ya ek minor retracement dekhne ko mil sakti hai. Magar overall trend is time frame par yeh suggest karta hai ke rallies short-lived hongi aur strong resistance ka samna karengi. Pehla significant resistance upside par 0.6760 ke qareeb hai, iske baad 0.6800 ka level aa sakta hai.

**Summary**

H4 time frame par AUD/USD pair clear weakness dikhata hai. Sellers ab bhi control mein lagte hain, aur jab tak koi strong catalyst market sentiment ko change nahi karta, pair likely pressure mein rahega. Traders ko key support aur resistance levels par nazar rakhni chahiye, taake potential entry aur exit points ko gauge kar sakein.

**AUD/USD Ka Bunyadi Jaiza**

Senstive China ke alternate data ke elan ke baad, AUD/USD ne girawat dekhi. Is ne 0.6720 tak drop kiya, jo ke 0.45% ki kami darust karta hai. Australian dollar ki kami ka sabab traders ki na-akhushi aur China ke halia stimulus measures ki asar darust karne ki chinta thi. Chinese export statistics ki kamzori ne Australian dollar ko khaas tor par nuqsan pohanchaya, lekin iske bawajood, AUD/USD ne apne kuch nuqsan ko kam kiya aur 0.6730 ke ilaqe mein wapas aaya. Is pair ki US session mein hui taiz rakhtari ka sabab non-voting Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari ke bayanat hain, jinhon ne kaha ke “aage chal kar kuch modest cuts ka hona mumkin hai.” Central bank dwara tay kiye gaye benchmark activity prices agle quarters mein kaafi dilchasp ho sakte hain.

Mangal ko Australian dollar, US dollar ke muqablay mein kamzor raha, kyunki China ki currency stability ke kamzor record ke bare mein reports ka asar tha, jo Australia ka sab se bara trading partner hai. Ye chinta traders ke liye khaas ahmiyat rakhti hai, kyunki ye Australian economy par seedha asar daal sakti hai.

**AUD/USD Ka Technical Jaiza**

Mangal ko AUD/USD takreeban 0.6730 par trade kar raha hai. Agar ye level se upar positive breakouts dekhne ko milte hain, to ye bearish se bullish momentum ki tabdeeli ka ishara kar sakte hain, lekin is se yeh bhi darust hota hai ke ab bhi bearish momentum maujood hai. AUD/USD currency pair ne declining channel ko tor diya hai. Is surat mein, 0.6800 ka important psychological resistance nazar aata hai, jo shayad 0.6758 ke kareeb pehle se resistance ka samna kar sakta hai.

Agar AUD/USD girawat jaari rakhta hai, to ye downtrend channel ke niche wale hisson ko target kar sakta hai, jo 0.6630 par hai. 11 September ko dekhi gayi 0.6622 ki aath hafton ki nichi soorat ko support ki tor par mad e nazar rakha ja sakta hai. AUD/USD ke top teen levels par kharidari aur bechne ka amal dekha gaya hai. Halankeh ye aakhri chand trading dinon se lateral trading kar raha hai, lekin aam trend ab bhi negative hai.

AUD/USD ke resistance levels 0.6760, 0.6780, aur 0.6800 hain, jabke support levels 0.6720, 0.6700, aur 0.6680 par hain. Agar pair 0.6720 ke ilaqe se neeche girta hai, to ye mazeed nuqsan ka samna kar sakta hai.

Is waqt, traders ko chahiye ke wo in levels par nazar rakhein aur market ki dynamics ko samajhne ki koshish karen. Market ki halat bohat jaldi badal sakti hai, aur in ahem levels ke aas paas trading karte waqt hamesha risk management ka khayal rakhna chahiye.

**Tajaweezat**

Mujhe lagta hai ke AUD/USD ke liye trading karne wale traders ko chahiye ke wo market ki halat aur China ke economic data par nazar rakhein. Agar traders ko aisa lagta hai ke market ka direction positive ho raha hai, to wo kharidari kar sakte hain jab price 0.6758 ya 0.6800 ke resistance ko torne ki koshish kare. Lekin agar girawat hoti hai, to unhein 0.6720 aur 0.6700 par support ko dekhna hoga aur in levels ke neeche jaane par apni positions ko samajhkar adjust karna hoga.

In baaton ka khayal rakhte hue, AUD/USD traders ko market ki halat par nazar rakhni chahiye aur har waqt taiyar rehna chahiye. Ye ahem hai ke market ke trends aur momentum ko samjha jaye taake sahi trading decisions liye ja saken. Happy trading!

اکتوبر 15 2024 کے لیے اے یو ڈی/امریکی ڈالر کی پیشن گوئی

آسٹریلیائی ڈالر نے کل 0.6727 سے نیچے گرنے کی کوشش کی۔ تاہم، چونکہ صبح کا وقفہ بند نہیں ہوا تھا، اس لیے یہ سطح سے اوپر لوٹ آیا۔ یہاں تک کہ اگر آسٹریلوی ڈالر اپنی اوپر کی صلاحیت کھو چکا ہے، تب بھی یہ خلا کو بند کرتے ہوئے ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. لائن (0.6778) کی طرف بڑھ سکتا ہے۔



اوپر کی صلاحیت کے کمزور ہونے کی نشاندہی مارلن آسیلیٹر سے ہوتی ہے، جو دبی ہوئی حالت میں ہے۔ 0.6772 سے نیچے قیمت کا استحکام 0.6640 پر ہدف مقرر کرتا ہے۔ چار گھنٹے کے چارٹ پر، مارلن آسیلیٹر کی سگنل لائن زیرو لائن سے اوپر کی طرف مڑ گئی ہے۔



قیمت 0.6727 کی سطح سے اوپر چلی گئی ہے لیکن بیلنس لائن سے نیچے رہتی ہے۔ 0.6778 پر مزاحمتی سطح کو موجودہ ٹائم فریم پر ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. لائن سے تقویت ملتی ہے۔ اگر جمعرات کو ای سی بی کے اجلاس کے بعد یورو بڑھنے میں ناکام رہتا ہے تو، آسٹریلوی ڈالر بھی اس مزاحمت کو توڑنے کی کوشش کرنے کا امکان نہیں رکھتا ہے۔

تعینات کیا مراد ہے مارکیٹ کے تجزیات یہاں ارسال کیے جاتے ہیں جس کا مقصد آپ کی بیداری بڑھانا ہے، لیکن تجارت کرنے کے لئے ہدایات دینا نہیں*

Monday ko release hone wale kamzor Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data ke bawajood AUD ne US Dollar (USD ) ke muqable mein achi position hasil ki hai. AUD/USD ka strong hona China ke central bank PBoC ke banking system mein liquidity inject karne se bhi related ho sakta hai, kyun ke Australia aur China ke darmiyan qareebi trade relation hai, aur Chinese economy mein developments ka Australian markets par bara asar ho sakta hai.PBoC ne 14-day reverse repo ke zariye banking system mein CNY 74.5 billion ka injection kiya, aur is dauran rate ko 1.95% se kam karke 1.85% kiya gaya. Iske ilawa, PBoC ne 7-day reverse repo ke zariye bhi CNY 160.1 billion ka injection kiya, jisme rate 1.7% par stable raha.AUD ko hawkish expectations se bhi faida mil raha hai, jo ke RBA ki aanay wali interest rate decision ke hawalay se hain, jo Tuesday ko hone wali hai. Expect kiya ja raha hai ke RBA apni Official Cash Rate (OCR) ko 4.35% par stable rakhegi, jo mazboot labor market aur inflationary pressures ko madde nazar rakhtay hue hai. Doosri taraf, US Dollar (USD) ki qeemat mein kami ho sakti hai kyun ke Federal Reserve (Fed) ke policymakers agle saal 2024 mein 75 basis points (bps) ke rate cuts predict kar rahe hain, jab ke last week unho ne aggressive 50 basis points ka rate cut kiya tha, jis se range 4.75-5.00% ho gayi hai.Monday ko AUD/USD pair 0.6820 ke qareeb trade kar raha tha. Daily chart ki technical analysis yeh dikhati hai ke pair ascending channel pattern ke lower boundary par test kar raha hai, jo ke bullish bias ki kamzori ko zahir karta hai. But 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) ab bhi 50 se ooper hai, is liye aglay price movement se pair ke trend ka behtar andaza hoga. Is waqt AUD/USD pair ascending channel ke lower boundary par test kar raha hai, jo ke 0.6839 ke nine-month high ke qareeb hai, jo 19 September ko dekha gaya tha. Agar is level se bounce hota hai, to pair upper boundary tak pohanch sakta hai, jo 0.6890 level ke qareeb hai. Neeche ki taraf, AUD/USD pair ko support 0.6771 par nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) par mil sakta hai, aur agla aham support psychological level 0.6700 par hog

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

AUD/USD H4 time frame par, is waqt AUD/USD 0.6728 par trading kar raha hai. Pair ki movement mein abhi noticeable signs of weakness nazar aa rahe hain, aur technical standpoint se, yeh downward momentum jaari rehne ki sambhavna lagti hai. Yeh darshata hai ke sellers ab bhi market par control mein hain, aur mazeed downside pressure ka zyada imkaan hai.

Agar hum recent price action ka jaiza lein, to yeh dekhte hain ke pair mein ek steady decline dekhne ko mil raha hai, jo Australian dollar ki US dollar ke muqablay mein broader weakness ko reflect karta hai. Is trend ke peeche kai wajahen ho sakti hain, jisme Australia se kamzor economic data ya US dollar ka taqatwar hona shamil hai, jo behtar economic conditions ya US mein rising interest rate expectations ki wajah se hai. Yeh fundamental drivers, market ki technical structure ke sath milkar AUD/USD ke aas-paas bearish sentiment ko barha rahe hain.

H4 chart par, pair lower highs aur lower lows bana raha hai, jo downtrend ka classic indication hai. Sellers price ko key support levels ke neeche push karne mein kamiyab rahe hain, jo bearish outlook ko mazeed mazboot karta hai. Market ab sellers ke haq mein nazar aa raha hai, jahan kisi bhi short-term rallies ko jaldi bech diya ja raha hai.

**AUD/USD Technical Analysis Continued**

Is waqt, traders aur analysts critical support areas par nazar rakhe hue hain, kyunki in levels ke neeche break hone se bearish momentum mein tezi aa sakti hai. Agla immediate support zone 0.6700 ke aas-paas ho sakta hai, jo ek psychological level hai aur buyers ko attract kar sakta hai. Lekin, agar yeh level nahi tikta, to humein mazeed girawat dekhne ko mil sakti hai, jahan agla major support 0.6650 region ke aas-paas ho sakta hai.

Doosri taraf, agar buyers in current levels ko defend karne mein kamiyab hote hain, to humein consolidation ya minor retracement dekhne ko mil sakta hai. Magar, is timeframe par overall trend yeh darshata hai ke rallies shayad short-lived hon aur strong resistance ka samna karna pad sakta hai.

Upar ki taraf, pehli significant resistance 0.6760 level ke aas-paas nazar aa rahi hai, jiske baad 0.6800 hai. AUD/USD pair H4 time frame par lagatar weakness ke saaf nishaan dikhata hua nazar aa raha hai. Sellers control mein hain, aur jab tak koi strong catalyst market sentiment ko shift nahi karta, yeh pair pressure mein rehne ki sambhavna rakhta hai. Traders ko key support aur resistance levels ko monitor karna chahiye taake wo potential entry aur exit points ka jaiza le saken.