ای AUD/USD کی تجزیہ اور مارکیٹ کے رجحانات

AUD/USD – Haali Surat-e-Haal aur Technical Tajziya
AUD/USD pair apni chhati musalsal bullish rally ko barqarar rakhe hue hai. Is taazi tezi ki wajah do bunyadi factors hain: pehli, US Dollar ki musalsal kamzori jo ke international markets mein dekhne ko mil rahi hai, aur doosri, risk appetite ka naya josh jo investors ko zyadah risk lene par amada kar raha hai. Iss waqt AUD/USD ka rate 0.6400 ke psychological level ke thoda neeche trade kar raha hai, jo market ke liye ek ahem resistance zone sabit ho sakta hai. Saath hi, yeh pair apne 2025 ke highest point 0.6408 (21 February) ke qareeb hai, jo ab agla short-term resistance markaz hai.

Agar buyers 0.6408 ka level todne mein kaamyab ho jate hain aur price is ke upar sustain karta hai, toh agli bari rukawat 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) hogi jo 0.6479 ke aas paas hai. Yeh 200-day SMA aksar markets mein bara resistance point ban jata hai. Agar is level ka bhi clear breakout hota hai, toh yeh market structure mein ek badi bullish tabdeeli ka ishara karega. Aisi surat mein, AUD/USD ka agla bara target November 2024 ka high 0.6687 hoga, jiska cross hona buyers ke liye bohat positive signal hoga.

Fibonacci Analysis

Technical tor par agar Fibonacci retracement ka analysis kiya jaye, toh July 2023 se April 2025 tak ke downward move ka 50% retracement level 0.6440 ke kareeb hai. Yeh level aur 200-day SMA ka itna close hona is zone ko aur bhi strong technical zone banata hai. 0.6440 se 0.6480 tak ka area ab ek battlefield ban gaya hai, jahan buyers aur sellers dono ka intense competition ho sakta hai. Yeh decide karega ke market upward momentum ko maintain karega ya profit-taking ka pressure dekha jayega.

Candlestick Patterns aur Price Action

Agar hum daily timeframe ka candlestick analysis dekhein, toh kai bullish indications samne aate hain. Har naye session mein higher lows ka formation ho raha hai, jo classic bullish trend ka nishan hai. Saath hi bullish engulfing candles bhi dekhne ko mil rahi hain, jo dikhati hain ke har dip par aggressive buying ho rahi hai. Is ka matlab yeh hai ke market mein demand abhi tak strong hai aur uncertainty ke bawajood buyers ka control zyada hai.

Kulli Jaiza





Agar mukhtasir taur par dekha jaye, toh AUD/USD ka current momentum buyers ke haq mein hai. 0.6400 ka psychological resistance zaroor thoda pressure dal sakta hai, lekin broader technical structure positive lagta hai. 0.6408 aur 0.6479 ke resistance zones critical hain — inka convincingly todna zaroori hoga taake rally ka agla marhala shuru ho. Agar yeh zones break hote hain, toh 0.6687 ka level asani se achieve kiya ja sakta hai.

Saath hi, agar US Dollar mein mazeed kamzori aati hai ya risk-on sentiment mazeed mazboot hota hai, toh AUD/USD ki rally mein aur tezi dekhne ko mil sakti hai. Lekin traders ko chahiye ke wo important resistance levels par price action ka bariki se jaiza lein, taake kisi bhi unexpected reversal ko miss na karein.

AUD/USD – Haali Soorat-e-Haal aur Technical Jaiza
AUD/USD pair ne apni bullish journey ko chhati musalsal session tak barqarar rakha hai. Is rally ko do aham factors ne support kiya: ek taraf US Dollar ki lagataar kamzori aur doosri taraf global markets mein risk appetite ka phir se taaza hona. Iss waqt AUD/USD 0.6400 ke psychological level ke bilkul neeche trade kar raha hai, jo ek ahem markaz hai. Saath hi, yeh pair 2025 ka ab tak ka peak (0.6408 – 21 February) ke kareeb hai, jo ab agla short-term resistance point ban gaya hai.

Agar AUD/USD is 0.6408 ke level ko convincingly todta hai, toh agli badi rukawat 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) ke aas paas 0.6479 par samne aayegi. 200-day SMA historically ek bara technical barrier hota hai, aur iska breakout market structure mein ek badi tabdeeli ka signal de sakta hai. Agar yeh zone bhi cross ho jata hai, toh November 2024 ka high, jo 0.6687 par tha, AUD/USD ke liye agla bada target ban sakta hai. Yeh movement ek major bullish shift ka indication hoga, jisme medium to long-term trend bhi bullish ho sakta hai.

Fibonacci Analysis

Agar Fibonacci retracement levels ka tajziya kiya jaye, toh July 2023 se April 2025 tak ke girawat ke 50% retracement ka level kareeb 0.6440 par hai. Yeh level 200-day SMA ke saath closely align karta hai, jo is area ko aur bhi zyada technical importance deta hai. 0.6440-0.6480 ka zone ab ek “key battleground” ban gaya hai, jahan buyers aur sellers ke darmiyan kashmakash barh sakti hai. Is zone ka fate taay karega ke rally mein aur taqat aayegi ya yahan se profit-taking shuru hogi.

Candlestick Patterns aur Price Action




Daily candlestick patterns par nazar daali jaye, toh kaafi positive signs milte hain. Recent sessions mein multiple higher lows dekhnay ko mile hain, jo ke ek classic bullish structure hai. Iske alawa bullish engulfing candles bhi banti nazar aayi hain — jo yeh dikhata hai ke buyers har dip ko aggressively khareed rahe hain. Yeh pattern market mein demand ke continuity ka saboot deta hai, jab ke broader uncertainty ke bawajood bulls ne apni pakad mazboot banaayi hui hai.

Summary

Mukhtasar mein, AUD/USD ka momentum filhal bulls ke haq mein hai. 0.6400 ke aas paas thoda psychological resistance zaroor hai, lekin overall structure positive lag raha hai. 0.6408 ka short-term resistance aur uske baad 200-day SMA (0.6479) critical levels hain. Agar yeh zones convincingly break hote hain, toh November 2024 ka 0.6687 ka high next major target ban sakta hai. Fibonacci levels aur candlestick analysis dono hi is bullish scenario ko support kar rahe hain.

Agar US Dollar mein aur kamzori aati hai ya risk-on sentiment mazeed mazboot hota hai, toh AUD/USD ki rally sustain rehne ke imkaan barh jate hain. Lekin traders ko hamesha key resistance zones par price action ka ghor se jaiza lena chahiye, taake kisi bhi potential reversal ke signals ko miss na karen.

اس بارے میں ذکر کرنا ضروری ہے کہ audusd جوڑ میں کچھ بھی تبدیلی نہیں ہوئی ہمارے لیے، ہم اسی رینج میں ٹریڈ کرنا جاری رکھ رہے ہیں، 0.64 سے دور جانے میں کامیاب نہیں ہوا۔ اور یقینا ہمارے لیے اوپر کی طرف حرکت ہے، اگر لانگ ابتدائی کارروائی، اور ماکسیمم کے علاقے میں پلیٹ فارم کی شکل میں۔ لیکن دوسری طرف، اس قدر بڑھوتری کے بعد بھی اہم کمی کی ضرورت ہے، جس کا ابھی تک کوئی اثر نہیں ہوا۔ اور یقینا یہاں بھی بہت کچھ ڈالر کی مانگ پر منحصر ہے اور اگلے ہفتے بکس کی ٹریڈنگ کیسی ہوگی، اس سے اہم ہے۔ اور پھر بھی میں ابھی تک سائیڈ لائن پر ہوں۔ اس قیمت سے ٹریڈنگ کو نہیں دیکھتا۔ لیکن میں اسے خارج کرنے کا امکان نہیں رکھتا۔ لیکن یہ بھی ممکن ہے کہ ہم 0.6440 سے اوپر جا سکتے ہیں۔ اور اگر وہاں جعلی بریک ہوتی ہے، تو میں بعد میں فروخت کروں گا۔

Filhal AUD/USD currency pair mein hum ek consolidation phase dekh rahe hain jo ek local downtrend ke darmiyan ho rahi hai. Yeh phase tab hoti hai jab market ek range mein move karta hai – na zyada upar ja raha hota hai, na neeche – lekin overall trend abhi bhi neeche ki taraf hi hota hai. Aise waqt mein buyers aur sellers dono side se pressure dal rahe hote hain, lekin koi bhi party dominate nahi kar rahi hoti.
Is waqt ek naya resistance level 0.6084 par bana hai, jo ke price ke upar hai aur strong barrier ka kaam kar raha hai. Price ne is level ke neeche apne aap ko establish kar liya hai, jo is baat ki taraf ishara karta hai ke sellers market mein control le chuke hain. Jab price ek resistance level ko tod nahi pata aur uske neeche hi rehta hai, to aam tor par yeh downtrend ke continuation ka signal hota hai.
Aise halat mein traders short position lene ka plan karte hain – lekin directly jump karna risky hota hai. Behtareen strategy yeh hoti hai ke jab price dobara 0.6084 ke pass aaye aur wahan se phir neeche girne lage (yaani resistance ko respect kare), to us waqt short entry lein. Yeh confirmation provide karta hai ke market resistance ko tod nahi saka, aur downtrend barqarar hai. Stop-loss order 0.6084 ke upar lagaya ja sakta hai taake agar price unexpectedly breakout kar le, to nuksan limited ho.
Agar price 0.6084 ke resistance ko tod deta hai aur uske upar consolidate karna shuru kar deta hai, to yeh trend reversal ka signal ho sakta hai. Is ka matlab hoga ke buyers ne momentum hasil kar liya hai, aur market upar ki taraf ja sakta hai. Aise halat mein traders long positions dhoondte hain, khas tor par agar breakout ke saath volume bhi increase ho jaye – yeh move ki strength ka indicator hota hai.
Lekin sirf technical analysis par rely karna kafi nahi hota. Fundamental factors bhi bohot important hote hain. Australia ka economic data agar strong aata hai – jaise employment growth, retail sales ya GDP – to AUD ko support milta hai. Wahi agar US ka data weak aaye, to USD pressure mein aata hai, jo AUD/USD pair ko upar le ja sakta hai.
AUD ek risk-sensitive currency hai – iska matlab hai ke jab global markets mein uncertainty hoti hai, to log USD jaise safe-haven assets mein shift karte hain, jis se AUD par pressure aata hai. Is liye geopolitical news, commodity prices (especially iron ore, kyunke Australia ka major export hai), aur risk sentiment sab AUD/USD ko directly effect karte hain.
Akhir mein, abhi AUD/USD ki situation kaafi delicately balanced hai. 0.6084 ka resistance level abhi key role ada kar raha hai. Agar price wahan se phir neeche gire to short karna sahi rahega, lekin agar breakout ho jaye to long ka chance banega. Technical aur fundamental dono angles ko dhyan mein rakh kar, traders better decisions le sakte hain. Market ki volatility aur news updates par nazar rakhna zaroori hai taake timely action liya ja sake.

Australian dollar (AUD) ne US dollar (USD) ke muqablay mein doosre din bhi gain kiya hai, Friday ko, jo ke ek achi khabar ke wajah se hua, jise Bloomberg News ne report kiya. Bloomberg ne apne source ke zariye bataya hai ke China ab US ke kuch import par lagaye gaye 125% ke tariffs ko suspend karne ka soch raha hai. Yeh tariffs khas kar un cheezon par lagaye gaye hain jinmein medical equipment, ethane, aur aircraft leasing shamil hain. Sources ne yeh bhi kaha hai ke Chinese officials aircraft leasing ko in tariffs se mukhtalif tor par chhorne ki bhi soch rahe hain, yani ke agar ho sakay toh is sector ko bilkul exempt kar diya jaye. Abhi tak China ke Ministry of Finance ya General Administration of Customs ne is silsile mein koi bhi official comment ya confirmation nahi di hai. Lekin, in positive khabron ke wajah se Australian dollar mein thodi si upward movement dekhi gayi hai. Iske bawajood, AUD/USD currency pair resistance ka samna kar raha hai, kyunki USA aur China ke darmiyan trade tensions ab bhi bahut barh rahe hain. Australia ki trade ties China ke saath bahut gehri hain, jiski wajah se uski currency in developments ke liye bahut sensitive hai. Market ke traders lagataar is global trade environment ko closely dekh rahe hain, aur har naye developments ka asar samajhne ki koshish kar rahe hain.

Market sentiment ab bhi mixed hai. Kuch log optimistic hain, kyunki reports ke mutabiq Trump administration Chinese imports par tariffs kam karne ke liye tayar ho sakti hai, agar Beijing ke saath negotiations achi tarah aage badh sakti hain. Lekin, dusri taraf, caution bhi nazar aa rahi hai kyunki koi bhi concrete breakthrough nazar nahi aa raha. China ne bhi apne taraf se trade ke hawale se apni khushamdi zahi ki hai, aur kaha hai ke agar US naye threats na de, toh woh bhi discussions ke liye tayar hai. China ke Ministry of Finance ne Friday ko ek statement jari kiya, jisme unhone kaha ke duniya ki economy ab bhi sust hai, aur tariffs lagana aur trade wars chalana global economic stability ke liye khatra hain. Unhone sabhi mulk ko appeal ki hai ke wo mil kar kaam karein, taake international economic order ko behtar banaya ja sake.

United States ki taraf se bhi is mamle mein koi khaas progress nazar nahi aa rahi. US Treasury Secretary Scott Besant ne bhi yeh saaf kar diya hai ke abhi tak koi unilateral tariff cuts ki proposal nahi aayi, aur dono mulkon ke beech formal negotiations shuru hone ki bhi koi date nahi hai. Is wajah se market mein uncertainty barh gayi hai.

Iske saath hi, China ke Ministry of Finance ne ek aur warning di hai ke duniya ki economy ab bhi sust hai, aur tariffs lagana aur trade wars ko aage badhawa dena uski stability ko kamzor kar raha hai. Unhone sabhi mulkon se request ki hai ke wo mil kar kaam karein, taake global economic problems ka solution nikala ja sake.

Aapko yaad dilana chahunga ke Australia ki monetary policy bhi market ke liye bahut important hai. Westpac Bank ne Thursday ko ek forecast diya hai ke RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) apne interest rate ko 25 basis points kam kar sakti hai, jo ke 20 May ko hone wali policy meeting mein ho sakta hai. RBA ab apni policy data ke mutabiq banata hai, jisse predict karna mushkil hota hai ke wo kya karenge. Kabhi kabhi unki decision unpredictable hoti hai, jisse market mein uncertainty badh jati hai.

Aane wale dinon mein, global trade tensions, US-China ke beech negotiations, aur RBA ki future policy decisions mil kar Australian dollar ke US dollar ke muqablay mein halat ko shape karte rahenge. Yeh factors mil kar short-term mein currency trading ke landscape ko influence karte rahenge. Overall, market ab bhi cautious hai, aur traders in sab developments ko dhyan se dekh rahe hain, taake apne investments aur positions ko safe rakh sakein.

Technical Analysis of AUD/USD

Aaj ma ne AUD/USD currency pair ka technical analysis kiya hai. Is waqt market ki price neeche ja rahi hai aur lagta hai ke downtrend bohat mazboot hai. Market ki price ek lambe waqt se 0.6457 ke resistance level aur 0.6402 ke support level ke darmiyan fluctuate kar rahi hai. Is price movement se ye bhi nazar aa raha hai ke market ne resistance trend line se bounce liya hai, jis wajah se price neeche gir raha hai. Jab market ki price resistance level ke neeche close karti hai, to is se signal milta hai ke price aur neeche ja sakti hai. Agar price 50-day simple moving average ke upar se phir se neeche close karti hai, to is se confirm hota hai ke market us support level tak ja sakti hai jahan pe pehle bhi price ruk chuki hai.

Jab hum 1-hour chart dekhte hain, to ye bhi nazar aa raha hai ke price ne downtrend line ko tod diya hai. Price ne us trend line ko touch karne ke baad girawat shuru ki hai aur ab 200-day simple moving average ke neeche aa gaya hai. Is waqt agar price 50-day simple moving average ke neeche rehti hai, to ye is baat ki nishani hai ke market us support level tak ja sakti hai jahan pe pehle bhi price ne support liya hai. Lekin agar price upar ki taraf breakout karti hai aur trend line ko todti hai, to iska matlab hai ke market phir se upar jaane ke liye tayar hai. Is case mein, resistance level 0.6457 tak bhi ja sakta hai.

Market ke trend ko samajhne ke liye RSI indicator bhi use kiya gaya hai. RSI ki value abhi 58 ke qareeb hai, jo ke 30 se 70 ke darmiyan hoti hai. RSI ke is level se lagta hai ke market abhi thoda sa downward move kar sakti hai. Jab RSI 30 ke qareeb hoti hai, to ye oversold condition ke taraf ishara karta hai, aur 70 ke paas hone par overbought condition hoti hai. Is waqt RSI 58 hone ki wajah se lagta hai ke market abhi sideways ya phir downward trend mein ja sakti hai, lekin agar market support level todti hai, to market neeche jaayegi. Aur agar resistance level break hota hai, to market phir upar jaane ke chances badh jaate hain.

Indicators ke chand rang bhi chart pe dikhaye gaye hain. Navy color ki line 50-day simple moving average hai, jo ke short-term trend ko dikhati hai. Chocolate color ki line 200-day simple moving average hai, jo ke long-term trend ko batata hai. RSI indicator period 14 hai, jo ke momentum aur overbought ya oversold conditions ko identify karta hai.

Akhir mein, ye kaha ja sakta hai ke agar price neeche rahe aur 50-day moving average ke neeche close kare, to market support level ki taraf ja sakti hai. Wahi agar price upar ki taraf breakout karta hai aur resistance level todta hai, to phir market bullish ho sakti hai aur upar jaane ke chances hain. Is liye, traders ko chahiye ke woh in dono scenarios ka dhyan rakhein aur confirmation ke liye price action aur indicator signals ka intezar karein. Overall, abhi market ka trend downwards lag raha hai, lekin agar resistance break hota hai, to situation badal sakti hai.

AUDUSD ka current market structure kaafi interesting phase me hai jahan pe clearly ek struggle nazar aa rahi hai between bulls aur bears. Overall broader picture me AUDUSD ek bearish bias maintain kar raha hai, lekin short-term charts pe kuch recovery attempts bhi dekhne ko mil rahe hain. Ye pair fundamentally aur technically dono aspects se kaafi sensitive hai, specially commodities ke demand aur China ke economic indicators ke sath closely link hone ki wajah se. Filhal AUDUSD 0.6450 ke aas paas trade kar raha hai, jahan se price ne thodi upward movement show ki hai lekin abhi tak koi strong bullish confirmation nazar nahi aayi. 0.6500 ka psychological level ek major resistance ka kaam kar raha hai. Price ne pehle bhi is area ke paas jaake multiple times rejection face kiya hai, is liye jab tak price 0.6500 ko convincingly tod nahi leta, buying pressure ko short-term hi consider karna chahiye.

Support side pe 0.6400 ka level bohot critical hai. Agar price is ke neeche daily close deta hai to further downside open ho sakti hai jahan agla support 0.6350 aur uske baad 0.6300 ke levels pe expect kiya ja sakta hai. Yeh levels wahan ke hain jahan historically price consolidation aur reversal attempts karta raha hai, is liye yahan buyers ke kuch attempts dekhne ko mil sakte hain. RSI indicator abhi neutral zone me hai, lagbhag 50 ke aas paas, jo ke show karta hai ke neither buyers nor sellers abhi dominant position me hain. Lekin price ke lower highs aur lower lows ka pattern ab tak intact hai, jo underlying weakness ko reflect karta hai. MACD ka histogram thoda sa positive territory me shift hua hai lekin crossover abhi tak confirm nahi hua, iska matlab yeh hai ke momentum me abhi bhi uncertainty hai.



Daily timeframe pe 50 EMA aur 200 EMA ke beech distance maintain hai jahan 50 EMA neeche hai aur 200 EMA upar, jo clear long-term bearish trend ko validate karta hai. Jab tak price in moving averages ke neeche trade kar raha hai, longer term bias bearish hi rehega, aur rallies ko selling opportunities ke taur pe consider karna better strategy hogi. Fundamentals ke agar baat karein to AUDUSD pe pressure ki ek bari wajah US dollar ka overall strength hai. Federal Reserve ke hawkish tone ke chalte USD me buying interest consistently bana hua hai, jab ke Australian economy ko commodities demand me slowdown aur China ke economic uncertainty ka bhi burden uthana pad raha hai. Dusri taraf Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) ka monetary policy stance bhi relatively dovish raha hai, jo AUD ke liye supportive environment create nahi karta.

Ek aur factor jo AUDUSD ko affect karta hai wo hai global risk sentiment. Jab markets me risk-off environment hota hai to AUD jaise risk-sensitive currencies ko selling pressure face karna padta hai. Aur jab equities me heavy sell-off ya commodity prices me decline aata hai to AUDUSD kaafi aggressively neeche girta hai. Volume Profile se agar analysis karein to heavy volume accumulation 0.6450 ke aas paas dekhi gayi hai, jo filhal ek intraday support ka kaam kar raha hai. Lekin agar price is volume cluster ke neeche slip karta hai to selling acceleration ho sakti hai. Upar ki taraf 0.6500 ke aas paas ka volume gap show karta hai ke wahan tak price relatively easily move kar sakta hai agar buyers thoda control le lein.

AUD/USD ki technical analysis ke mutabiq, pichlay chand hafton se jo trend nazar aa raha tha, usmein bullish impulse wapas aa rahi thi aur lagta tha ke price us bullish channel ki structure ke andar aa gaya hai. Iska matlab ye tha ke market mein jo buying ki momentum thi, wo ab tak mazboot lag rahi thi, aur price ki movement positive direction mein ja rahi thi. Jab hum technical levels ki baat karte hain, toh 0.64 ki resistance level bahut hi important thi. Is level ko todna, jo ke ek final hurdle tha bullish bulls ke liye, bahut zaroori tha taake wo apni position ko mazboot bana sakein aur bearish trend ko break kar sakein.

Pichlay haftay, bulls ki taraf se koshish thi ke price is level ko paar kar jaye. Lekin, market mein bears bhi active the, aur unhone apni positional struggle shuru kar di. Iska matlab ye hai ke bears ne market mein apni position mazboot ki, taake price ko us resistance level ke upar jaane se roka ja sake. Is wajah se bullish momentum thoda kamzor pad gaya, aur price us breakout zone mein jaane se pehle hi ruk gaya.

Ab agar hum indicators ke hawale se dekhein, toh yeh bhi nazar aa raha hai ke price ab ek bahut hi important resistance ke samne khada hai. Price ne apni head hit kar li hai us dynamic resistance ke saath, jo ke 200-day moving average ke roop mein dikhai de raha hai. Yeh 200MA ek bahut hi zabardast resistance level hoti hai, kyunki yeh long-term trend ko represent karti hai. Iske saath hi, 50MA ke saath iska intersection bhi hua hai, jise technical terms mein "death cross" kehte hain. Death cross tab hota hai jab short-term moving average (50MA) long-term moving average (200MA) ke neeche aa jata hai, jo ke aksar bearish signal hota hai.

Aksar dekha gaya hai ke jab price is heavy moving average ke saath takraata hai, toh yeh bounce karta hai, yani ke price us resistance se waapis neeche aa jata hai. Aur lagta hai ke is dafa bhi aisa hi hone wala hai. Is wajah se, hum keh sakte hain ke jo price correction pichlay haftay tak chali aa rahi thi, wo ab apni peak par pahunch gayi hai.

Is liye, meri analysis ke mutabiq, ab jo price movement nazar aa rahi hai, usmein bullish correction ab khatam ho gayi hai. Aur mujhe lagta hai ke ab market mein bearish trend dobara shuru hone wala hai, jo ke 0.64 ke level se shuru ho kar, channel ke support line tak ja sakta hai. Yeh support line, jo ke neeche ki taraf hoti hai, market ke liye ek important level hai, jahan price apni girawat ko rok sakta hai.

Toh, is scenario ke mutabiq, hum yeh expect kar sakte hain ke price is resistance level ko todne ke bajaye, wapas neeche ki taraf jaane ka rukh karega. Yeh movement, market ke overall trend ko bearish banane ke liye ek indicator ho sakti hai. Is liye, traders ko chahiye ke wo is level par special dhyan dein, aur apne trades accordingly plan karein.

Akhir mein, yeh kehnay ka maksad yeh hai ke technical analysis ke mutabiq, market ab us peak ke baad hai jahan se reversal aana mumkin hai. Isliye, agay ke days mein, price ko closely monitor karna chahiye, taake sahi waqt par sahi decision liya ja sake. Agar market 0.64 ke resistance level ke upar jaata hai, toh yeh bullish signal hoga, lekin agar yeh level ke neeche rehta hai, toh uska matlab hai ke bearish trend abhi bhi intact hai aur price neeche jaane ke chances hain.

Aud/usd, ٹیکنیکل تجزیہ
بیل کی موج نے بیل کے چینل کی ساخت میں واپسی کے ساتھ ایک وعدہ مند موقع پیش کیا تھا۔ علاوہ ازیں، 64 فیگر کی مزید معلومات کے لئے "ریز" کو مقابلہ، بیل کے لیے میڈ بیئر ٹرینڈ کے توڑنے کے لئے آخری رکاوٹ تھی۔ پچھلے ہفتے بیلوں کو صرف اتنا کرنا تھا: منقطع کرنا اور پرشور حد میں مضبوط ہونا۔ نتیجتاً بیئرز نے بیلوں کو قیادت کے لیے معقول مقابلہ دینے کا موقع دیا اور اسی طرح حرکت کی انرجی کو ختم کر دیا۔



اب اگر اس زون میں انڈیکیٹرز کی حالت دیکھی جائے، تو قیمت نے بالکل 200 دن کی متحرک اوسط کے دینامک رکاوٹ کو توڑ دیا، جو 50 ایم اے کے "مردے کراس" پر ہے۔ اکثر مواقع پر قیمت موونگ اوسط سے واپس ہوتی ہے، اور بظاہر، اس بار بھی یہی ہونے والا ہے۔



یعنی ہمارے پاس مندرجہ ذیل ترتیب ہے:
- بیلی ترمیم پچھلے ہفتے میں اپنی زیادہ سے زیادہ حد تک پہنچ گئی ہے؛
- میں 64 فیگر سے بیئر ٹرینڈ کی بحالی کا انتظار کر رہا ہوں، اور چینل کی حمایتی لائن کے علاقے میں حرکت کی توقع ہے

AUD/USD currency pair ek consolidation phase se guzar raha hai jo ek local downtrend ke dauran ho raha hai. Yeh woh waqt hota hai jab market ek narrow range mein move karta hai, jabke pehle ka trend downward tha – yaani ke price lower highs aur lower lows bana raha tha. Yeh phase market ki indecision ko show karta hai – jahan buyers aur sellers dono ek balance mein hain. Lekin aise phases ke baad aksar ek strong breakout dekhne ko milta hai – ya to neeche ki taraf ya upar ki taraf. Filhal, price ke upar ek naya resistance level 0.6084 par ban gaya hai, jahan se market ne neeche ka rukh ikhtiyar kiya hai. Yeh level ab ek barrier ka kaam kar raha hai, aur yeh indicate karta hai ke sellers ne is level par control hasil kar liya hai. Jab price ek resistance ke neeche consolidate karta hai, to iska matlab hota hai ke buyers is level ko break nahi kar paa rahe, jo ke downtrend ke continuation ka signal deta hai.
Trading Strategy ke liye yeh resistance level kaafi ahmiyat rakhta hai. Agar price phir se 0.6084 tak aata hai lekin is level ko break nahi kar pata, to yeh ek strong sell signal ho sakta hai. Traders is setup ka intezar kar sakte hain aur phir ek short position le sakte hain, umeed ke sath ke market phir se neeche giraawat dikhaye. Risk ko manage karne ke liye stop-loss 0.6084 ke thoda upar lagana behtar rahega, taake agar market breakout karta hai to loss limited ho.
Dusri taraf agar price is resistance ko todta hai aur upar ki taraf breakout karta hai, to yeh momentum mein tabdeeli ka signal ho ga. Agar yeh breakout high volume ke sath hota hai to iska matlab hoga ke buyers market mein wapas aa rahe hain aur ek trend reversal ke chances barh rahe hain. Is surat mein traders long positions consider kar sakte hain, lekin confirmation ka intezar zaroor karna chahiye.
Fundamental factors bhi AUD/USD pair ko kaafi influence karte hain. Australia ya U.S. ki taraf se aanay wale economic indicators, interest rate announcements ya political developments is pair ke movement mein bari tabdeeli la sakte hain. Agar Australian economy mein strength dekhi jaye ya U.S. economy weak nazar aaye, to AUD ki value barhne ke chances hain.
AUD ko risk-sensitive currency bhi kaha jata hai. Jab global markets mein uncertainty hoti hai to investors safe-haven currencies jaise USD mein invest karte hain, jiska pressure AUD par padta hai. Lekin agar market mein risk appetite barhta hai, to AUD wapas strong ho sakta hai.
Aakhri Baat:
Is waqt AUD/USD pair ek crucial level par trade kar raha hai. 0.6084 ka resistance level market ke next move ka faisla karega. Agar price is level ko respect karta hai aur neeche jata hai to short opportunities mil sakti hain. Lekin agar price breakout karta hai, to buyers wapas momentum le sakte hain. Technical analysis ke sath sath fundamental aur sentiment-based factors ko samajhna bhi zaroori hai. Sirf price levels nahi, balkay economic news aur global market mood bhi trading decisions mein ahm role ada karte hain.
Aise dynamic market scenarios mein vigilant aur flexible rehna trader ke liye sab se zaroori hota hai.