ای AUD/USD کی تجزیہ اور مارکیٹ کے رجحانات

AUD/USD Price Movement

Hamari guftagu aaj ke waqt ki AUD/USD currency pair ke price behavior par focus karti hai. Yeh zaroori hai ke average prices abhi uncertain hain, kyunki moving averages lagbhag horizontal hain. Lekin, do mahine ka average price thoda sa annual average se upar chala gaya hai, jo ek potential reversal ka ishara hai. Yeh mumkinat tab barh jaati hai jab recent decline ek strong rebound ke saath khatam hota hai jo pichle low ke nazdeek hota hai, aur niche ek 140 points lamba tail chhodta hai. Uske baad se price steadily upar chali gayi hai, jo shayad bearish trend ki shuruat ko darshata hai. Main dekhta hoon ke pair hourly chart par ek ascending channel mein move kar raha hai. Aaj, price is channel ke upper boundary tak chali gayi hai, jo 0.6724 par hai. Iss point par, main ek reversal ki umeed karta hoon, aur pair ke niche jaane ki sambhavnayein hain. Agar decline hoti hai, to price channel ke lower boundary tak ja sakti hai, jo 0.6683 ke aas-paas hai. Aaj ke trading ke liye, buying abhi bhi priority hai.

Lekin, current level 0.67205 par buy positions open karne se achha hai. Main ek behtar entry point ka intezar karunga jo 0.66005 ke support level ke nazdeek ho. Price ko thoda niche girna hoga takay yeh level tak pohonch sake. Mera profit target 0.67331 par hai. Main umeed karta hoon ke yeh strategy as planned chalti rahegi. Agar price decline karti hai, to yeh stagnant lag sakti hai—koi significant downward movement nahi dikhati. Lekin, price confidently upward trend mein surge kar sakti hai, obstacles, levels, aur critical markers ko bina zyada resistance ke paar karti hai. Minor hurdles, jaise H1 chart par, thoda impact daalti hain, jabke zyada substantial hurdles, daily time frame par, zyada slow nahi karti. Recently, H4 chart par daily time frame ka benchmark 0.6699 ke aas-paas thodi si pause ko show karta hai, lekin upper benchmark 0.6711 ko zyada notice nahi kiya gaya.

Buyers ne Jumma, 23 August 2024 ko 0.6755 se 0.6765 ke price level par mojood resistance area ko tod dia, jo ke pehle din yani Jumerat, 22 August 2024 ko trading mein resistance area tha. Yeh level ab support ke taur par use ho sakta hai taake aane wali trading mein pending buy limit order place kiya ja sake.

Technical analysis ke mutabiq, Jumma ko jo naya resistance area bana hai, yani ke 0.6800 se 0.6790 ke darmiyan, yeh trading mein ab key resistance area hoga. Agar yeh resistance area break nahi hota, toh Asian trading session mein AUD/USD currency pair ke girne ki umeed hai, jahan se yeh phir se 0.6755 - 0.6765 ke support area ko istamal kar ke buyers ke liye ek nayi uchal ka sabab ban sakta hai.

AUD-USD H1 Trading Planning for Monday Tomorrow

In halat ke mutabiq, market 0.6797 - 0.6799 ke price range mein open hone ki umeed hai, jahan kareebi support aur resistance 0.6811 aur 0.6787 ke aas paas banain gi. Monday ke liye yeh hai trading plan:

1. Buy Option: Agar price 0.6811 ka resistance tor deta hai aur EMA 12 aur EMA 36 H1 upward hoti hain, tou price ke 0.6846 - 0.7262 tak bullish hone ka potential hai.

2. Alternate Buy Option: Agar price mein correction aata hai aur pullback 0.6749 ke aas paas hota hai, toh 0.6773 - 0.6790 se 0.6802 tak take profit kiya ja sakta hai.

3. Buy Plan: Agar correction barqarar rehta hai, tou buyers EMA 200 H1 line par bounce ka intezar kar sakte hain aur take profit 0.6725 - 0.6748 ke aas paas plan kar sakte hain.

4. Sell Option: Agar price 0.6787 ka support tor deti hai, toh 0.6772 - 0.6750 tak take profit kiya ja sakta hai. Magar yeh risk bhara ho sakta hai, isliye behtar hoga ke 0.6749 area mein breakout ka intezar kiya jaye, jahan EMA 12 aur EMA 36 H1 downward crossover banain, take profit 0.6709 - 0.6687 tak kiya ja sakta hai.

5. Alternate Sell Plan: Agar price 0.6846 area se reject hoti hai, toh sabse kareebi bearish potential 0.6813 tak ho sakta hai.

AUD/USD pair is abhi $0.6655 ke aas-paas trade kar raha hai, aur foreign exchange market mein neutral trend dikhata hai. Yeh value kafi stable lag rahi hai, jaisa ke daily charts se pata chalta hai jahan currency pair mein consolidation pattern dikh raha hai, jo ke koi clear directional movement nahi dikhata. Daily charts mein yeh AUD/USD pair rectangular pattern mein dikhai de raha hai, jo ke market consolidation ka classic indicator hai. Yeh pattern tab samne aata hai jab kisi asset ki price parallel support aur resistance levels ke beech mein oscillate karti hai, jo ke buying aur selling pressures ke darmiyan ek equilibrium ko suggest karti hai. Aise phases mein traders aksar currency pair ko sideways move karta dekhte hain, jahan momentum ki kami hoti hai jo ke isay decisively upward ya downward breakout de sake. Kayi factors hain jo Australian dollar ke is consolidation period mein contribute kar rahe hain. Global front par, economic data releases, geopolitical developments, aur commodity prices mein shifts—especially Australia ke key exports jaise ke iron ore aur coal—currency ke performance par significant asar daal sakti hain. Domestic level par, Reserve Bank of Australia ke monetary policy decisions, inflation rates, aur economic growth ke indicators bhi currency ke direction ke liye crucial hote hain.
Iske ilawa, market participants shayad cautious stance adopt kar rahe hain due to uncertainty surrounding global economic conditions. Aise factors jaise ke potential interest rate changes by major central banks, trade tensions, aur post-pandemic economic recovery prospects trader sentiment ko influence kar rahe hain. Yeh cautious approach aksar consolidation patterns mein sideways movement mein reflect hota hai, jahan market players clear signals ka wait karte hain before significant positions lein.

Technical analysis mein, rectangular pattern ko aksar ek preparatory phase ke tor par dekha jata hai. Traders aur analysts aise formations ko closely monitor karte hain kyunki yeh substantial price movements se pehle aa sakti hain. Iss pattern se eventual breakout—chahe upward ho ya downward—aksar increased trading volume aur heightened volatility ke saath hota hai, jo ke ek strong directional trend ko indicate karta hai.

Is waqt, AUD/USD pair ek holding pattern mein hai. Traders aur investors key events ya data releases ka intezar kar rahe hain jo ke breakout ke liye zaroori impetus provide kar sakte hain. Jab tak aise developments nahi hote, Australian dollar shayad $0.6655 mark ke aas-paas

AUD/USD Forum (Australian Dollar - US Dollar): Charts, Reviews

Pichlay Jumerat ko AUD/USD ke movement mein asal mein kami dekhne ko mili. Uss waqt, AUD/USD ki keemat 0.6703 tak gir gayi thi. Agar hum isay calculate karein, toh AUD/USD mein 50 pips ke qarib girawat aa chuki thi. AUD/USD Forum (Australian Dollar - US Dollar): Charts, Reviews h1 support ko 0.6719 par torne ke baad, AUD/USD ne wapas se kafi tez izafa dekha. Uss Jumay ko, AUD/USD takreeban 85 pips upar chala gaya. Is k badolat, h1 resistance 0.6764 par cross kar liya gaya. Ab candle ki position 0.6796 ki keemat par hai.

Agar isay technical analysis se dekha jaye, toh AUD/USD ki currency pair abhi supply area mein hai 0.6796 par. Agar yeh wahan se nahi nikli, toh retracement ho sakta hai jiss se AUD/USD bohat zyada niche gir sakta hai. Masla yeh hai ke AUD/USD mein izafa pehlay hi bohat zyada hai. August ke shuruat se hi izafa shuru ho gaya tha. Lekin, aapko yeh bhi ehtiyat karni chahiye ke agar supply area nahi tora gaya, toh yeh movement ko mazeed barhne par majboor kar sakta hai.

Agar Ichimoku indicator ki madad se analysis kiya jaye, toh candle position abhi bhi Tenkan Sen aur Kijun Sen lines ke upar hai jo yeh zahir karta hai ke AUD/USD ka trend abhi bhi bullish hai. Yeh indicator yeh batata hai ke trend abhi bhi bullish hai. Mazeed barhne ke imkanaat abhi bhi hain jab tak koi nayi intersection nahi hoti. Kyun ke line aur candle ke darmiyan bhi faasla kafi hai, yeh AUD/USD ko niche kheench sakta hai.

Dusri taraf, stochastic indicator se maloom hota hai ke iss waqt AUD/USD overbought ki soorat mein hai. Yeh uss waqt ke baad hua jab Jumay ko AUD/USD mein kafi tez izafa dekhne ko mila. Line ka position jo ke level 80 ko tor chuki hai, iska matlab hai ke AUD/USD jald hi niche ki taraf mod sakti hai. Masla yeh hai ke line ki direction bhi niche ki taraf hai.




Toh aaj ki analysis ka natija yeh hai ke AUD/USD ke niche jane ke imkanaat hain kyun ke resistance ko todne ke baad, candle asal mein supply area mein atki hui hai jo ke 0.6796 ki keemat par hai. Jab tak yeh area nahi toota, mujhe lagta hai ke niche jane ka mauqa abhi bhi bohat bara hai. Isi liye, mein un logon ko jo iss pair mein trade karte hain, yeh salah deta hoon ke woh sirf sell positions kholne par tawajjoh dein. Aap apna take profit target kareeb support par 0.6700 par rakh sakte hain aur stop loss resistance par 0.6810 par rakh sakte hain.

AUD/USD ki Soorat-e-Haal: Roman Urdu Mein

AUD/USD pair ne haftay ki kamzori ke sath shuruat ki hai, aur Monday ki subah ke Asian session ke dauran yeh 0.6792 ke aas paas trade kar raha hai. Is girawat ke peeche kai factors hain, jinn mein Fed Chair Jerome Powell aur Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) ke bayanaat bhi shamil hain.

Fed ka Interest Rates ke Hawalay Se Moqaf:

Federal Reserve ke Chair Jerome Powell ne haal hi mein ishaara diya hai ke aney wale waqt mein interest rate cuts ke imkanaat hain, jis se Fed ki monetary policy mein tabdili ka imkaan zahir hota hai. Is dovish nazariye ne US Dollar par bohat asar dala hai, kyun ke interest rate cuts ki umeed se aam tor par currency kamzor hoti hai. Lekin, Australian Dollar (AUD) abhi tak is soorat-e-haal se faida nahi utha saka hai dusre factors ki waja se.

RBA ka Hawkish Nazariya:

Dusri taraf, RBA ne apna hawkish moqaf barqarar rakha hai. RBA ke haal hi ke bayanaat yeh zahir karte hain ke woh abhi bhi mehengai ko manage karne par tawajjoh de rahe hain, jiss ke liye interest rates ko ooncha rakhna zaroori ho sakta hai. RBA ki yeh hawkish tone AUD ko kuch support faraham karti hai, jis se uski girawat mehdood reh jati hai, halaan ke global markets par wusat tor par risk-off sentiment ka asar hai.

Market Sentiment aur Aalmi Factors:

Aalmi market sentiment abhi bhi ehtiyat se kaam le raha hai, jis ki waja kai geopolitics aur maashi tashweeshaat hain, jinn mein Cheen ki maashi suusti aur iske Australia ki maeeshat par asraat shamil hain. Cheen, Australia ka sab se bara trading partner hai, aur Cheen ki maeeshat mein kisi bhi kamzori ki nishani ka seedha asar AUD par hota hai.

AUD/USD ki Technical Soorat-e-Haal:

Technical nazariye se dekha jaye toh AUD/USD pair iss waqt 0.6800 ke aas paas resistance ka saamna kar raha hai, jab ke foran support 0.6750 ke qareeb hai. Pair ki harkat mumkin hai ke aanewale maashi data aur Fed aur RBA ke mazeed bayanaat par munhasir ho. Agar Fed ka dovish moqaf barqarar raha, toh hum AUD/USD mein kuch recovery dekh sakte hain, lekin aham izafa RBA ke hawkish stance aur aalmi maashi soorat-e-haal ki tashweesh ki waja se mehdood reh sakta hai.




Powell ke interest rate cuts ke hawalay se bayanaat USD par dabaav dal rahe hain, lekin AUD ko RBA ki mil jul kar aane wali reports aur baray maashi masail ki wajah se zyada support nahi mil raha. Traders ko dono central banks ki policies aur aalmi maashi indicators mein mazeed developments par nazar rakhni chahiye, jo ke qareebi waqt mein AUD/USD ki direction tay karne mein aham kirdar ada karenge.

AUD/USD Forum (Australian Dollar - US Dollar): Charts, Reviews

Market Pair ki Daily Timeframe Mein Analysis:

Kal, Jumay ke din AUD/USD market pair ke trading time window mein buyers ne kamyabi se control hasil kiya, jab unhon ne sellers ki bearish raftaar ko roka aur unhe buyer support area mein 0.6700-0.6705 ki keemat par rok liya. Is waja se sellers ka keemat ko mazeed niche dhakelne ka mauqa naakaam raha aur keemat bullish ho gayi, jiss ka sabab buyers ki taraf se daal gayi mazboot bullish pressure thi.

Daily time window mein Moving Average indicator ka istemal karte hue dekha ja sakta hai ke keemat ya candle abhi bhi MA 50 Red area se door upar ki taraf move kar rahi hai, jo ke 0.6647-0.6650 ki keemat par hai. Yeh area buyers ne kamyabi se barqarar rakha hua hai aur yeh bhi ek bohat mazboot bullish candlestick ke saath dominate kar raha hai. Yeh zahir karta hai ke AUD/USD market pair ki trading mazeed bullish tareeqe se barhti rahegi, aglay bullish target ke saath jo ke mazboot seller supply resistance area 0.6850-0.6855 ki keemat par hai.

Agle Monday ko trading ke dauran mumkin hai ke keemat mazeed bullish tareeqe se barhti rahegi, kyun ke AUD/USD market pair ke closing tak keemat abhi bhi bullish soorat-e-haal mein hai. Is wajah se buyers apni bullish momentum ko barqarar rakhte hue keemat ko upar le jaane aur seller resistance area 0.6800-0.6805 ki keemat par test karne ki koshish karenge. Agar yeh area kamyabi se toor liya jata hai, toh keemat mazeed upar barhegi, aglay target ke saath jo ke mazboot seller supply resistance area 0.6845-0.6850 ki keemat par hai.

Natija:

- Buy Trading Options: Yeh ki jaa sakti hain agar keemat seller ke resistance area ko kamyabi se toor leti hai. Is surat mein, aap pending buy stop order area ko 0.6800-0.6805 ki keemat par laga sakte hain, aur TP area 0.6845-0.6850 par rakh sakte hain.




- Sell Trading Options: Yeh ki jaa sakti hain agar keemat buyer ke support area ko kamyabi se toor leti hai. Is surat mein, aap pending sell stop order ko 0.6770-0.6768 ki keemat par laga sakte hain, aur TP area 0.6754-0.6750 par rakh sakte hain.

AUD-USD Pair Review

Buyers ne Juma, 23 August 2024 ke din trading mein resistance area ke level ko 0.6755 se lekar 0.6765 tak kamyabi se tor liya, jahan 0.6755 - 0.6765 ki resistance area Thursday, 22 August 2024 ki trading mein sabse ooncha tha. Hum is support area ko istemal kar ke aaney wali trade mein pending buy limit order laga sakte hain.

Technical side se dekha jaye, Juma ki trading mein jo resistance area bana tha, yani 0.6800 se lekar 0.6790 tak, woh iss martaba trading ka key resistance area hoga. Agar yeh resistance area breakout karne mein naakam hota hai, toh Asian trading session mein yeh paishgoi ki ja rahi hai ke AUDUSD currency pair mein pehlay girawat dekhi jaayegi. Yeh girawat keemat ko support area 0.6755 - 0.6765 tak layegi jahan se buyers ko dobara se izafa karne ka mauka mil sakta hai aur keemat mazeed oonchi ur sakti hai.

AUD-USD H1 Trading Planning for Monday Tomorrow

Upar di gayi soorat-e-haal ke mutabiq, market ki ummeed hai ke yeh 0.6797 - 0.6799 ke aas paas open hogi, sab se qareebi support aur resistance 0.6811 aur 0.6787 ke aas paas banein hain. Monday ke liye yeh planning ki gayi hai:




- Buy ko barqarar rakhein iss farz ke sath ke keemat 0.6811 ki resistance ko todne mein kamyab ho jati hai, EMA 12 aur EMA 36 H1 ki taraf upar ki taraf move kar rahi hain, bullish potential ke sath 0.6846 - 0.7262 tak.
- Ek aur buy option agar keemat mein correction aa raha hai, toh agar pullback 0.6749 ke aas paas hota hai, take profit 0.6773 - 0.6790 se 0.6802 tak rakhain.
- Ek aur buy option agar correction jaari rahta hai, toh buyers EMA 200 h1 line ke bounce ke momentum ka intezaar kar sakte hain, take profit 0.6725 - 0.6748 ke aas paas rakha jaaye.
- Sell karein agar keemat 0.6787 ko tod deti hai, take profit 0.6772 - 0.6750 tak rakhain. Lekin yeh abhi bhi risk se bharpoor hai, behtar hoga ke 0.6749 ke area mein breakout ka intezaar kiya jaye, EMA 12 aur EMA 36 H1 ke downside crossover ki surat mein, take profit 0.6709 - 0.6687 tak rakhain.
- Ek aur sell plan yeh hai ke agar keemat ko 0.6846 ke area se reject kiya jata hai, toh sab se qareebi bearish potential 0.6813 tak hai.

AUD/USD

Market mein tabdeeli aayi hai. Ab jab hum 0.6730 ke level par pohanch gaye hain, toh hum neeche ki taraf ja rahe hain. Humara maqsad bechnay mein khushi paana hai. Aaj paisa sab se ziada chaha jane wala cheez hai. Shakhsi tajurbe se, hum intezaar karte hain ke chart dobara 0.6650 par aaye aur candle ke kinare ko dekhein, chahe koi bhi kursi lagi ho. Yaqeen karen ke candles ko mazbooti se aur neeche rakhna hai! Mujhe 0.6710 par stop loss lagane mein thoda dar hai. Jab main trade se stop loss ke sath nikalta hoon, toh kam se kam aglay din tak aram karta hoon. Chalo, neeche chalte hain.

Aaj AUD/USD currency pair achha lag raha hai. LOY aaj ki sales ke aas par mukammal taur par updated hai, kyun ke yeh din ki aakhri action thi. Main kal ki unchai par bechnay ke liye tayar hoon. Main upar diye gaye entries (0.6780) ko bhi dekhunga. Iss soorat mein, main uske liye ek stop loss order lagaunga (0.6740), kyun ke keemat kal se 60% ziada hai. Kal ki neeche ki keemat 0.6700 ke neeche, main 60% munafa hasil karunga.




Iss waqt, jo kuchh bhi main keh sakta hoon woh yeh hai ke AUD/USD apni puri koshish kar raha hai ke mujhe yeh crosses trade karne se roke, aur maine yeh waja kai dafa samjhayi hai. Khud AUD/USD technical taur par zyada itimadaar nahi hai, lekin AUD aur USD kareebi taur par jure hue hain, zyada tar USD ke zariye. AUD/USD ke paas jaane ke liye koi jagah nahi hai; yeh bas mojood hi nahi hai. Yeh baat mushkil hone ke bawajood ke kaunsi badi currency pehle breakout karegi, USD wazeh tor par side par hai. Kuch entry options hain, isliye aage bohot zyada price movement hoga. Nishaniyan wahan hain ke hum dekh sakte hain.

Technical Analysis of AUD/USD

Hello sab ko, kaise hain aap? Umeed hai ke aap trading ke aakhri din ka lutf utha rahe hain. Pichle hafta, price ne ek tez bearish trend dikhayi. Yeh lagbhag paanch sau pips ka bearish level tha. Iske baad, price ne apna saara level tod diya aur 0.6779 tak pahunch gaya. Australian dollar ne woh upar ki taraf momentum jari rakhi jo kal shuru hui thi, aur pichle kaam ke hafta ke lokal high tak pohanch gaya. 0.6506 par support milne ke baad, price ne rebound kiya aur apni rise dobara shuru ki, 0.6635 tak pahunch gaya jab tak ke is level ke neeche ruk nahi gaya. Is tarah, girawat ka umeed kiya gaya silsila nahi hua, aur mukhtalif forecast ab kansel hone ki haalat mein hain. Filhal, price chart supertrend green zone mein hai, jo ke buyers ki activity ko zahir kar raha hai.

AUD ki prices mein tezi se izafa hua Thursday, 22 August ko, jab Saudi Arabia ne June ki oil exports mein tez kami ki report di. Is waqt jab main likh raha hoon, AUD/USD 0.67730 par trade kar raha hai, jo 1.84% ki izafa hai. Is dauraan, US Dollar Index apni downtrend jari rakhi hui hai, 2024 ke low tak pahunch gaya hai. Is girawat ko kai wajoohat ki wajah se samjha ja raha hai, jismein recent non-farm payroll data mein girawat aur Federal Reserve ke ishare ke mutabiq ho sakta hai ke woh interest rates mein kami karein.

Pair is waqt apne haftay ke highs se kaafi upar trade kar raha hai. Main resistance area bhari dabaav mein hai aur tordne ke qareeb hai, jo yeh zahir karta hai ke ab preferred vector ko upar ki taraf shift karne ki zaroorat hai. Yeh us waqt tasdeeq hoga jab 0.6635 ke level ko break kar ke upar ki taraf confident resistance ban jaye. Ek successful retest aur iske baad neeche se rebound se ek aur upward movement ka silsila jari hoga, jiska target 0.6765 se 0.6804 ke beech ke area mein hoga.





Agar 0.6573 ke reversal level ko tod diya jata hai, toh yeh maujooda scenario ke reversal ka signal hoga.

Australian dollar mein Friday ki trading session ke dauraan thoda izafa hua jab market ka tawajjoh Jackson Hole Symposium par tha, khaas tor par Jerome Powell ke intezari khitaab par. Market ke shareekeen besabri se Powell ki guftagu ka intezar kar rahe hain, kyun ke unke alfaz se aanay wale hafton mein US dollar ke rujhan ka taaiyun ho sakta hai.

Jab Australian dollar 0.68 ki satah ke qareeb pohancha, jo ek aham muzahmati ilaka hai, yeh 50-point barrier mein daakhil hua jise tajir ghour se dekh rahe hain. Agar yeh satah toot jati hai, to is se bulaandi ka rujhan zair-e-nazar aayega jo sirf Australian dollar ke muqable mein nahi balki doosri badi currencies ke muqable mein bhi US dollar ki mazeed kamzori ki taraf ishaara karega.

Lekin agar Australian dollar ulta rukh karta hai aur girawat hoti hai, to 0.6650 ki satah ek aham himayati ilaka sabit ho sakti hai, khaas tor par jab 50-day EMA is ilakay se qareeb taur par judi hui hai. Agar currency is himayat se neeche toot jati hai, to agla hadaf 0.6450 ki satah ho sakta hai. Yeh baat bhi lazmi hai ke Stochastic Oscillator is waqt ishaara kar raha hai ke market overbought hai, kyun ke is ne is ilakay mein cross over karna shuru kar diya hai, jo ke mumkin pullback ka izhaar karta hai.

Iss mahaul mein, market ki haalat ghair yaqini aur baylagaam rahegi, jahan mukhtasar arsay ki tabdeeliyan aur ghalat tijarti rawaiye dekhnay ko mil sakte hain. Yahan par breach ka imkaan hai lekin ehtiyaat ki zaroorat hai. Tajir mazeed wazeh rujhan saamne anay tak bade position lene se katra rahe hain. Lekin agar Australian dollar upside ki taraf break karnay mein kaamyaab ho jata hai, to yeh mazeed barhtay hue aur bara tawanai se upar janay ke liye rasta saaf kar sakta hai, jo US dollar ki wasee kamzori ko zair-e-nazar laayega.




Kul mila kar, Jackson Hole Symposium se aane wali aham taraqqi ke moqam par market ehtiyaat se bharpoor hai, aur aanay walay sessions mein Australian dollar ki performance mumkin hai Powell ke khitaab ke wasay teraqi aur market ke is ke tabeer per munhasir karegi.

US Dollar ko support milne mein mushkil ho rahi hai kyun ke tajiron ko yaqeen hai ke Fed rate cuts tay hain. Sab ki nazarain Jackson Hole par Fed ke Chair Jerome Powell par hongi taake cuts ki tasdeeq ho sake. US Dollar index 101.00 ke upar trade kar raha hai aur agar kamzor sentiment barqarar raha, to yeh 100.00 tak gir sakta hai.

US Dollar (USD) wisaal mein ziyada tabdeelion ke baghair trade kar raha hai jab ke usne Wednesday ko US session ke aghaz mein bhari farokht dekhi thi, jis se 2024 ke naye low ki taraf ek aur girawat shuru hui. Nonfarm Payrolls revision ne yeh numaya kiya ke pehlay andaze se 818,000 kam naukriyan theen, jo das saalon se bhi zyada ke arsey ki sabse bari downward revision thi, jo US job market ke hawale se market ki pareshaniyon ki tasdeeq karti hai. Baad mein, July ke Fed Minutes ke jaari hone se tasdeeq hui ke Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ke kuch arakeen ne us waqt bhi rate cut ka kehna tha, jis se September mein is harkat ko lagbhag yaqeen kar diya gaya hai.

AUD/USD ke price ki daily chart analysis mazeed izafa ki imkaanat ko darsh karti hai, jo ek bullish bias ke mazboot hone ki taraf ishara kar rahi hai. 9-day EMA 50-day EMA ke upar hai, jo recent price action ko longer-term trend se behtar sabit kar raha hai. 0.6798 ki satah, jo sat mah ke high par hai, ek aham muzahmati satah ke tor par saamne aati hai.

AUD/USD apne pichle session ke haaliya nuqsan se wapas aati hai aur Thursday ke European hours ke dauraan 0.6750 ke qareeb trade kar rahi hai. Daily chart analysis is baat ki taraf ishara karti hai ke pair ek ascending channel pattern ke andar upar ki taraf ja raha hai, jo bullish bias ko mazeed mazboot karta hai.

14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) 70 level se thoda neeche consolidated hai, jo yeh darshata hai ke bullish momentum maujood hai. Lekin, agar RSI 70 tak pohanchta hai, to yeh is baat ka ishara hoga ke AUD/USD pair overbought territory mein dakhil ho raha hai, jis se mumkin hai ke ek correction karib ho.

Iske ilawa, daily chart analysis yeh bhi darshati hai ke 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) 50-day EMA ke upar hai, jo aam tor par ek bullish signal ke tor par samjhi jati hai. Yeh is baat ki taraf ishara karta hai ke haaliya price action longer-term trend se behtar perform kar raha hai.




Muzahmati hawalay se, AUD/USD pair 0.6798 ke qareeb apni sat mah ki satah ko target kar sakta hai, jo 11 July ko haasil hui thi. Agar yeh satah toot jati hai, to yeh pair ko ascending channel ki upper boundary ko 0.6860 level ke aas paas test karne ki taraf dhakel sakti hai.

Neeche ki taraf, AUD/USD pair sab se pehle ascending channel ki lower boundary ko 0.6700 level ke aas paas test kar sakta hai, iske baad 9-day EMA par 0.6686. Agla support 50-day EMA par 0.6634 par hai.

Agar yeh 50-day EMA ke neeche break karta hai, to yeh bullish bias ko kamzor kar sakta hai aur neeche ki taraf pressure badha sakta hai, jis se AUD/USD pair throwback support ko 0.6575 par test karega. Agar yeh pair is support se neeche girta hai, to yeh apni girawat ko agle throwback level 0.6470 tak barha sakta hai.

AUD/USD

Aaj hum AUD/USD currency pair ki price movements ka tajziya karenge. AUD/USD pair mein Friday ko khareedari ki activity dekhne ko mili, aur daily chart yeh darshata hai ke upar ke rujhan ka silsila jari hai. Sabse aham sawal yeh hai ke kya yeh bullish movement barqarar rahegi ya humein kisi alternative scenario ke liye tayar rehna chahiye. Iss wazahat ke liye, aayiye Monday ki technical analysis par nazar daalte hain aur dekhte hain ke yeh kya tawajihat deti hai. Tajziye ke mutabiq, moving averages active buying ki taraf ishara kar rahe hain, technical indicators bhi khareedari ki salaah de rahe hain, aur overall nateeja buying ki himayat karta hai. Yeh tajziya Monday ke liye ek bullish outlook ki taraf ishara karta hai. Australia se koi aham updates ki tawakku nahi hai, lekin U.S. apne leading economic indicators ka index release karega, jiske negative hone ki paishgoi ki gayi hai.

Iske bawajood, yeh imkaan hai ke is muqam se bearish move dekhne ko mile, jis se iss trading instrument ki keemat mein khaasa girawat aasakti hai. Yeh us surat mein ho sakta hai agar market ke khulne ke baad AUD/USD pair mazeed upar janay mein nakam rahe aur 0.6598 ke level se upar mustahkam na ho, jo ke recent price increase ka hissa tha. Agar yeh scenario saamne aata hai, to yeh downward trend ko trigger kar sakta hai, jahan keemat seedha bearish rukh ki taraf ja sakti hai. Yeh moamla tab mumkin hai jab market ke khulne ke baad keemat 0.6514 ke accumulation area par girti hai aur wahan se upar anay ki koshish karti hai. Aisi surat mein, AUD/USD pair ko 0.6554 ke level ko paar karne mein mushkilat ho sakti hain. Agar yeh resistance barqarar rehti hai, to keemat 0.6554 se gir kar bearish rukh ki taraf 0.6449 ke aas paas ja sakti hai, jahan khaasa paisa mojood hai.




Support ke hawale se, AUD/USD ke ascending channel ki lower boundary 0.6630 ke qareeb hai, jo ke exchange rate ke liye fori support hai, iske baad 9-day moving average 0.6618 ke aas paas hai. Agar yeh moving average ke neeche girti hai, to pair 0.6575 ke pullback level ko test kar sakta hai. Agar pair is support area se neeche girta hai, to yeh bearish bias ki taraf ishara karega, jo ke pair ko 0.6470 ke pullback level ki taraf le ja sakta hai.

AUD/USD

Mein iss waqt AUD/USD currency pair ke jaari price action ka mutaala kar raha hoon. Pichle trading haftay mein Australian dollar ka US dollar ke muqable mein performance zaida tar bulls ke haq mein raha. Yeh koi hairan kun baat nahi hai, kyun ke pichle maheene mein AUD/USD pair ne khasa nuksaan uthaya tha. Iss haftay ke dauraan, yeh pair ek naye saalana low 0.6364 par pohanch gaya tha, lekin us ke baad tezi se wapas aya. Abhi ke liye, price resistance level 0.6576 par hai, jo ke June ke minimum se mutabiqat rakhta hai. Shuru mein kuch muzahmat zaroor ho sakti hai, lekin Aussie ne apne downward targets ko pehle hi hasil kar liya hai. Yeh mumkin hai ke pehle hi attempt par nahi, lekin Aussie yeh resistance tod kar apne upar ke safar ko jari rakhega. Ek chhota support level 0.6511 par ho sakta hai, jo ke pichle haftay ke low se milta julta hai. Abhi ke liye, selling koi munasib option nahi hai.




Agar mujhe AUD/USD pair ke mustaqbil ke hawale se poocha jaye, to main pur-yaqeen tor par bullish direction ki paishgoi karunga. Mera tajziya weekly chart par mabni hai. Keemat ne pichle haftay tawanai se ulat kar wapas ayi jab ke mazeed teen haftay ki girawat ke baad. Iss ka nateeja ek bullish candle ki soorat mein nikla jiska lambi niche sayaa W time frame par dikhai diya. Aksar, aisi candles is baat ka izhaar karti hain ke khareedar rukne ke liye tayyar nahi hain. Candle ke jisam aur saaye do aham nuqat ko numayan karte hain: girawat ke muqable mein muzahmat aur barhti hui tawanai. Main abhi long positions mein hoon, 0.659 mark ko test karne aur iske upar mustahkam hone ka aim rakhta hoon. AUD/USD pair iss waqt ek ascending channel ke andar trade kar raha hai, aur Parabolic SAR indicator ke mutabiq, yeh upward trend jari rehne ke imkaanat hain, jo ke northern direction mein trading ko munafa bakhsh bana sakte hain. Four-hour chart bhi mukammal upward trend ki tasdeeq karta hai. Is liye, main north mein trading jari rakhunga, aur munafa mustahkam tor par barhta jayega.

Australian Dollar, RBA Minutes, aur FOMC Insights ka Fundamental Analysis

Australian Dollar (AUD) mein qeemat ke izafe ke asaar nazar aa rahe hain, jo Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) aur iski latest monetary policy stance ke zariye ho raha hai. RBA Minutes yeh darshati hai ke interest rates par hawkish nazariya hai, jo yeh ishaara karta hai ke central bank shayad jaldi monetary policy ko tight karne ki soch raha hai. Yeh taraqqi AUD traders aur investors ke liye aham hai, kyun ke hawkish RBA aam tor par currency ko support karta hai, jisse Australian assets zyada attractive ban jaati hain high yields ki wajah se. RBA ke recent minutes se pata chalta hai ke central bank interest rates ko barqarar rakhne ya shayad izafa karne ki taraf leaning kar raha hai, economic outlook ke hisaab se. Central bank inflation ko target range ke andar rakhne ke liye committed lagta hai, jo ke additional rate hikes ki zaroorat pesh kar sakti hai agar inflationary pressures barqarar rahti hain. RBA ka hawkish tone saal ke shuruat se ek bade tabdeel ka ishaara hai jab monetary policy ke rukh ke baare mein ziada uncertainty thi.

Judo Bank Composite PMI: Aik Positive Indicator

AUD ke liye positive sentiment ko barhate hue, Australia ka Judo Bank Composite PMI August mein 51.4 par pohanch gaya, jo ke pichle readings se upar hai. Yeh izafa khaaskar service sector ki behtar performance ki wajah se hua hai, jo Australian economy ka ek aham hissa hai. PMI ka 50 se upar hona expansion ko darshata hai, jo yeh suggest karta hai ke Australia mein economic activity tez ho rahi hai. Yeh economic indicators ki behtari RBA ke hawkish stance ko mazeed support de sakti hai, kyun ke behtar economic performance se inflation barh sakti hai, jo rate hikes ki zaroorat ko janam deti hai.

FOMC Minutes: Aik Mukhtalif Approach

Pacific ke doosre taraf, U.S. Federal Reserve ke latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes yeh darshati hai ke zyadatar officials ne September mein rate cut par agree kiya hai. Yeh dovish stance RBA ke hawkish nazariye ke saath stark contrast karti hai. Fed ka monetary policy ko easing ki taraf rukh karna U.S. economy mein economic growth ki slow honay aur subdued inflationary pressures ke concerns ko reflect karta hai.

Australian Dollar par Asar

RBA ke hawkish stance aur Fed ke dovish approach ke darmiyan ke tajawaz se Australian Dollar ke liye ek favorable environment ban sakta hai. Agar RBA tightening ka rukh jari rakhti hai jab ke Fed rates cut karti hai, to dono mulkon ke darmiyan interest rate differential Australia ke haq mein barh jayega. Yeh zyada capital flows ko Australian assets ki taraf attract kar sakta hai, jo AUD ko support karega. Is ke ilawa, Australia ke positive economic data, jaise ke behtareen Judo Bank Composite PMI, AUD ke bullish sentiment ko mazeed barhata hai. RBA ka hawkish stance, improving domestic economic indicators, aur dovish Fed ke combination se Australian Dollar ke izafe ki ummeed hai aane wale mahino mein.

Risks aur Considerations

Lekin, mumkin risks ko bhi nazar mein rakhna zaroori hai. Global economic environment abhi bhi uncertain hai, trade tensions, geopolitical risks, aur global economic slowdown ke concerns ke saath. Yeh factors Australian economy ko impact kar sakte hain, jo ke international trade, khaaskar China ke saath, par heavily reliant hai. Global growth mein kisi bhi significant downturn se Australia's economic performance par asar ho sakta hai aur shayad RBA ka hawkish stance bhi tabdeel ho sakta hai. Is ke ilawa, jab ke FOMC rate cut ki taraf inclined nazar aati hai, kisi bhi unexpected shift in U.S. economic data ya inflation se Fed apne position ko reconsider kar sakta hai, jo U.S. aur Australian monetary policies ke darmiyan divergence ko kam kar sakta hai.




Nateeja

Kul mila kar, Australian Dollar izafe ke liye tayar hai kyun ke RBA Minutes rate trajectory par hawkish mood ko reflect karti hai. Judo Bank Composite PMI ka izafa AUD ke liye positive outlook ko barhata hai, jo Fed ke dovish stance se bhi support milta hai. Lekin, traders ko global economic risks ke bare mein ehtiyaat rakhni chahiye jo is trajectory ko impact kar sakte hain. Domestic economic performance aur global market conditions ke darmiyan ka interplay AUD ke aane wale mahino mein rukh ko tay karega.

AUD/USD Price Signals

AUD/USD currency pair ke dynamic pricing behavior ka real-time analysis karte hue, chart ko Distances indicator ke saath dekh kar, filhal buying positions par focus karna zyada faida mand hai. Yeh points upar ki taraf price movement ko darshate hain, jo bulls ke liye bears se zyada mazboot position ko highlight karta hai. Trend line bhi upar ki taraf hai, jo long trades enter karne ko support karti hai. Stochastic oscillators jo main signals filter karne ke liye use karta hoon, woh bhi buyers ke liye favorable zone mein hain. Main is position ko Fibonacci level 61.8% tak, jo ke price level 0.67984 ke barabar hai, barqarar rakhne ka plan kar raha hoon. Filhal, AUD/USD moving average ke saath price bullish target 0.6861 ki taraf barh rahi hai, jo mainly AUD/USD ke debt-related challenges ki wajah se hai. Jab yeh target achieve hota hai, market upar ke pressure ko kam karne ki koshish kar sakti hai. Lekin, iska matlab yeh nahi ke 0.6861 par bearish reversal hoga—zyada imkaan yeh hai ke thodi der ke liye rukawat hogi. Bearish direction ko kafi had tak nazarandaz kiya ja sakta hai.




Trading Liquidity

Trading liquidity chouthay volatility area ke darmiyan accumulate hoti hai, jo ke 0.6727 aur 0.6756 ke levels se bound hai. Average balance se deviation abhi critical nahi hai, lekin ehtiyaat zaroori hai kyun ke ek sharp return impulse aa sakti hai. Yeh situation buyers ke liye favorable nahi hai, lekin woh long-term gains ke liye position le rahe hain. Ek careful approach ke saath 10 MM strategy positive results de sakti hai, halanke potential return waves ke bawajood. AUD/USD ka overall downtrend abhi bhi significant hai, jo higher time frames, H1 se upar, par wave structure analysis se confirm hota hai. Yeh sirf short positions ke liye ideal hai, lekin current area se short positions bhi risky ho sakti hain. Main recommend karta hoon ke selling tab ki jaye jab bulls T5 probability zone 0.6756-0.6794 tak pohnch jayein. Market impatience ko favor nahi karta, isliye rollback wave ke complete hone ka intezar karna behtar hoga.