ای AUD/USD کی تجزیہ اور مارکیٹ کے رجحانات

Yeh downtrend dheere dheere chal raha hai, jo mukhtalif economic aur geopolitical factors ko reflect karta hai. Is dheere movement ke bawajood, mujhe lagta hai ke AUD/USD pair agle kuch dinon mein significant movement ke liye tayar hai. Yeh analysis technical indicators, economic data, aur market sentiment ke combination par mabni hai, jo yeh suggest karta hai ke pair ek critical point ke qareeb hai jo ek notable shift lead kar sakta hai. Chaliye market trend ko pichle teen hafton se monitor karte hain, yeh lagta hai ke yeh drastically bearish raha hai. Seller ke strong pressure se price weak ho rahi hai. Yahaan main apni rai dena chahta hoon market ke liye, agar main is haftay ki price movement pattern ko monitor karoon, to lagta hai ke market ab bhi neeche ja raha hai halanki kuch upward correction bhi dekhne ko mil rahi hai. Mere khayal mein, agle haftay bhi price bearish side par wapas aane ki koshish karegi jaise pichle haftay dekha gaya tha, jahan sellers ne candlestick ko highest zone 0.6786 se neeche le jaaya tha. Ab price position 0.6512 area par aa gayi hai, candlestick position ab bhi 100 period ke simple moving average zone se neeche chal rahi hai, jo ke larger time frame mein bearish trend ka continuation dikha rahi hai. Market scenario agle haftay ke liye, mujhe lagta hai ke hum sirf price ke wapas neeche jane ka intezar kar rahe hain taake Sell trading signal mil sake. Yeh mumkin hai ke seller price ko aur neeche le jana chahte hain aur 100 period ke simple moving average zone se door le jana chahte hain. Agar main current price movement ko monitor karoon to yeh bearish lagta hai, mujhe lagta hai ke market seller ke asar mein hoga aur dobara girne ka chance hai taake 0.6471 price zone ko test kiya ja sake kyunki calculations aur technical analysis ke mutabiq price movement apni journey ko Downtrend side ki taraf continue kar sakti hai.
AUD/USD pair filhal bearish trend mein hai, aur market dheere dheere move kar raha hai. Lekin, kuch factors suggest karte hain ke ek significant movement imminent ho sakta hai. Technical indicators reversal ya continued decline ki possibility ko point out karte hain, jo depend karta hai ke pair key support levels ko hold kar pata hai ya nahi. Economic factors, khaaskar RBA aur Fed ke policies, bhi pair ke direction determine karne mein crucial role play karenge. Aakhir mein, market sentiment, jo global economic developments se influence hota hai, rapid changes lead kar sakta hai pair ke movement mein. Isliye, traders ko in factors ko closely monitor karna chahiye aur AUD/USD pair mein potential volatility ke liye tayyar rehna chahiye agle kuch dinon mein.

AUD-USD PAIR REVIEW

Buyers ne resistance area level ko 0.6755 ke price se penetrate kiya aur resistance area level ko 0.6765 ke price tak le gaye, jo ke trading Friday, August 23, 2024 ko hua. Yeh resistance area level 0.6755 - 0.6765 ki range mein Thursday, August 22, 2024 ko bhi high ya resistance tha. Is liye hum support area level ko use kar sakte hain pending buy limit order place karne ke liye agle trade mein.

Technical side se, Friday ko banne wala resistance area level, jo ke 0.6800 ke price se lekar 0.6790 ke price tak hai, is dafa key resistance area level banega. Agar resistance area level break nahi hota, to Asian trading session mein AUD/USD currency pair pehle decline ka shikaar ho sakta hai, aur phir support area level 0.6755 - 0.6765 ko buyers ke liye ek foothold banakar, phir se upar chadhne aur zyada uchnay ki ummeed rahegi.

AUD-USD H1 Trading Planning for Monday

Upar diye gaye shira'ati halat ke mutabiq, bazaar ki ummeed hai ke kal Monday ko 0.6797 - 0.6799 ke price par khulega, jahan qareeb qareeb support aur resistance levels 0.6811 aur 0.6787 ke aas paas ban rahe hain. Yahan Monday ke liye trading planning hai:

Buy Plans:

1. Resistance Breakout: Agar price 0.6811 ke resistance ko break karti hai, aur EMA 12 aur EMA 36 H1 upar ki taraf hanging hain, to bullish potential 0.6846 - 0.7262 tak ho sakta hai.
2. Pullback Opportunity: Agar price correction ke dauran 0.6749 ke aas paas pullback karti hai, to take profit 0.6773 - 0.6790 se lekar 0.6802 tak ho sakta hai.
3. EMA 200 Bounce: Agar correction continue hoti hai, to buyers EMA 200 H1 line par bounce ke momentum ka intezar kar sakte hain. Take profit 0.6725 - 0.6748 ke aas paas prepare kiya jaye.

Sell Plans:

1. Breakout Below 0.6787: Agar price 0.6787 ke level ko break karti hai, to take profit 0.6772 - 0.6750 tak kiya jaye. Lekin, yeh risky ho sakta hai, isliye 0.6749 area me breakout ka intezar karna behtar hoga, jahan EMA 12 aur EMA 36 H1 downside crossover form karenge, aur take profit 0.6709 - 0.6687 tak ho sakta hai.
2. Rejection from 0.6846: Agar price 0.6846 area se reject hoti hai, to nearest bearish potential 0.6813 tak ho sakta hai.

Buyers ne 23 August 2024, Jumme ko trading ke dauran 0.6755 se 0.6765 ke resistance area level ko penetrate karne mein kamiyabi hasil ki, jo ke 22 August 2024, Jumeraat ko trading ka high ya resistance area tha. Ab hum is support area level ka istemal karke agle trade mein pending buy limit order place kar sakte hain. Technical side se dekha jaye to 0.6800 se 0.6790 ke resistance area jo ke Jumme ke din trading mein form hua, is martaba key resistance area banega. Agar yeh resistance area breakout na kar saka, to Asian trading session mein AUD/USD currency pair ke pehle decline hone ki umeed hai, is se pehle ke yeh 0.6755 - 0.6765 ke support area level ko use karte hue buyers ke liye dubara climb karke aur bhi upar jaye.

In conditions ko dekhte hue market ke 0.6797 - 0.6799 ke price par open hone ki umeed hai, jahan qareebi support aur resistance 0.6811 aur 0.6787 ke aas paas ban rahe hain. Aur ye hai planning Monday ke liye:Buy ko maintain kiya jaye agar price 0.6811 ke resistance ko breakout kar sakta hai, EMA 12 aur EMA 36 H1 upwards hang karte huye bullish potential ke sath 0.6846 - 0.7262 level tak ja sakta hai.Agar price correct ho raha ho, to pullback ke dauran 0.6749 ke aas paas buy ki option dekhi ja sakti hai, take profit 0.6773 - 0.6790 tak le sakte hain, ya phir 0.6802 tak.Dusri buy option ye hai ke agar correction continue ho, buyers EMA 200 H1 line ke bounce ka intezar kar sakte hain, take profit 0.6725 - 0.6748 ke aas paas plan karna chahiye.Sell ki option agar price 0.6787 ko breakout karta hai, take profit 0.6772 - 0.6750 tak le sakte hain, lekin yeh risky ho sakta hai, behtar hoga ke 0.6749 area ke breakout ka intezar kiya jaye, jab EMA 12 aur EMA 36 H1 downside crossover banate hain, take profit 0.6709 - 0.6687 tak le sakte hain.Ek aur sell plan ye hai ke agar price 0.6846 area se reject hota hai, qareebi bearish potential 0.6813 tak hai jo buy positions open karne se behtar options hai. Main behtar entry point ka intezar karunga support level 0.66005 ke qareeb. Price ko is level tak pahunchne ke liye thoda dip hona zaroori hai. Mera profit target 0.67331 hai. Mujhe umeed hai ke yeh strategy plan ke mutabiq unfold hogi. Agar price decline karta hai, to yeh stagnant lag sakta hai—koi bara downward movement na dikhaate huye. Lekin, price confidently upward trend mein surge kar sakta hai, obstacles, levels, aur critical markers ko asaani se overcome karte hue. Minor hurdles, jaise ke H1 chart par, ka zyada asar nahi hota, jabke daily time frame par bade hurdles bhi progress ko barely slow karte hain. H4 chart par recent mein, daily time frame se 0.6699 ka benchmark, upward movement mein slight pause ka sabab bana, lekin upper movement ka silsila jaari raha.

AUD/USD jor ek multi-week high tak barh gaya hai, jo kuch key factors ke asar se hai. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) ne hawkish stance barqarar rakhi hai, jo ke suggest karti hai ke interest rates high reh sakti hain taake inflation ko roka ja sake. Ye nazariya China ke strong inflation data ke saath mazid mazboot hota hai, jo Australia ka major trading partner hai.
Iske ilawa, global markets mein positive risk sentiment ne Aussie ko support diya hai, kyunki traders U.S. Federal Reserve se 50 basis points rate cut ki ummeed kar rahe hain. Ye expectation softer U.S. economic data ki wajah se hai, jo Fed ko monetary policy dheela karne par majboor kar sakti hai. Iska natija ye hua ke U.S. dollar kamzor hua hai, jo AUD ko aur barhawa de raha hai.

In supportive factors ke bawajood, nazariya ehtiyaat se bharpur hai. RBA ne indicate kiya hai ke future rate decisions upcoming economic data, jaise consumer confidence aur employment figures, par depend karega. Agar consumer confidence barhta hai to ye consumer spending aur potentially higher inflation ka signal ho sakta hai, jo RBA ko additional rate hikes par consider karne par majboor kar sakta hai.

Iske sath hi, Australia ke labor market conditions bhi crucial hain. Tight labor markets wage growth aur consumer spending ko barha sakte hain, jo demand-driven inflation ko fuel kar sakta hai. Aise mein RBA apni tightening stance ko barqarar rakhne ka fayasla kar sakti hai. Lekin agar labor market kamzor dikhai deta hai, to RBA rate hike cycle ko pause ya reverse bhi kar sakti hai.

AUD/USD currency pair ko RBA ke hawkish stance, China ke strong inflation data, aur U.S. Federal Reserve se rate cut ke expectations se support mil raha hai, jisne U.S. dollar ko kamzor kiya hai.

Lekin, pair ke future direction largely Australia se aane wale economic data aur RBA ke response par depend karegi. Traders ko in developments par nazar rakhni chahiye taake ye assess kiya ja sake ke AUD/USD ka upward trend continue kar sakta hai ya nahi.

Daily chart par, ek noticeable long candle dekhne ko milti hai jo prolonged downward swing ke baad aayi hai, jo suggest karti hai ke sellers ka control kuch kamzor hua hai aur buyers momentum gain kar rahe hain. Ye currently valid bullish signal ko indicate karta hai.

Hum 0.6730 level tak pohnch chuke hain, aur market ne neeche ki taraf fly karna shuru kar diya hai. Ab hamara goal ye hai ke hum selling se khushi hasil karein. Aaj ke zamane mein paisa sabse zyada chaha jane wala cheez hai. Apne tajurbe se dekha jaye to hum chart ke 0.6650 par wapas aane ka intezar karte hain, aur candle ke edge ko dekhte hain, chahe wo kisi bhi chair se attached ho. Candles ko mazbooti se aur neeche se pakadna zaroori hai! Mujhe 0.6710 par stop loss ko adjust karne se ghabrahat hoti hai. Jab mai stop loss ke sath trade se exit karta hoon, to agle din tak araam leta hoon. Chalain neeche chalte hain.
AUD/USD currency pair aaj achi lag rahi hai. LOY ko aaj ke sales par mabni updated kiya gaya hai, jo ke din ka aakhri action hai. Main kal ke height par sell karne ke liye tayar hoon. Main upar diye gaye entries (0.6780) ko bhi consider karunga. Is surat mein, main stop loss order 0.6740 par lagaunga kyunki price kal se 60% zyada hai. Agar kal ke low 0.6700 ke neeche jaye, to main 60% profit le lunga. AUD/USD currency pair ke behavior ko analyse karte hue, yeh zaroori hai ke moving averages se clear ho raha hai ke current prices uncertain hain, jo ke lagbhag horizontal hain. Lekin, two-month average price ne annual one se slightly rise kiya hai, jo ke potential reversal ka ishara hai. Is possibility ko recent decline ne aur mazid reinforce kiya hai jo ke previous low ke qareeb strong rebound ke sath khatam hui, jahan neeche ek tail lagbhag 140 points lambi thi. Tab se, price steadily climb ho rahi hai, jo shayad bearish journey ke aaghaz ka saboot hai.

Hourly chart par pair ko ek ascending channel ke andar move karte hue dekh raha hoon. Aaj, price channel ke upper boundary tak pohnch gayi hai, 0.6724 ko touch kiya hai. Iss point par main reversal ki umeed kar raha hoon, jahan se pair neeche ki taraf move kar sakta hai. Agar decline hoti hai, to price channel ke lower boundary tak descend kar sakti hai.

Main aise crosses trade karne se bachne ki koshish kar raha hoon, aur iska sabab maine pehle bhi kai martaba bataya hai. AUD/USD technically credible nahi hai, lekin AUD aur USD closely linked hain, zyada tar USD ke through. AUD/USD ke paas koi raasta nahi hai, yeh sirf exist nahi karta. Yeh predict karna mushkil hai ke pehle kaunsa major currency breakout karega, lekin USD clearly sidelines par hai. Entry options kam hain, isliye aage bohat zyada price movement hone wali hai. Signs dekhne ke liye wahan hain.

Simple Moving Average 150 aur Simple Moving Average 60 indicators jo upar ki taraf point kar rahe hain, is condition ke week ke end tak continue karne ke chances hain agar buyers consistently apna dominance market mein 0.6600 ke upar price level par maintain karte hain. Agar MACD indicator ke instructions ko monitor kiya jaye, to yeh bohat clear hai ke histogram bar ka position zero level ke qareeb chota hota ja raha hai, aur yellow dotted MACD signal line ka direction upar ko bend kar raha hai jo ke bullish trend ko illustrate karta hai. Relative Strength Index indicator (14) par Lime line ab tak consistently level 50 par khel rahi hai. Teen support indicators ka monitoring ke natayij ne yeh dikhaya hai ke trend ab tak bullish direction mein move kar raha hai.

/USD pair descending channel mein consolidate ho raha hai, jo bearish sentiment ka ishara hai. 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oversold level 30 ke neeche hover kar raha hai, jo upward correction ka potential suggest karta hai. AUD/USD pair ko immediate support descending channel ke lower boundary ke around reverse support level 0.6470 par mil sakta hai Dusri taraf, resistance pehli baar channel ke upper boundary ke around 0.6520 par encounter hota hai, followed by nine-day exponential moving average (EMA ) at 0.6544. Agla significant resistance 0.6575 par hai, jahan "reverse support turned resistance" hai. Is level ke upar breakout AUD/USD pair ko six-month high 0.6798 tak push kar sakta hai. Main buy karne ka plan bana raha hoon. Sab ko profitable trades ki dua NZD/USD ke liye Current Market Situation
Chaliye D1 timeframe par NZD/USD currency pair discuss karte hain. Ye last month ke aath tareekh se downward trend mein hai, jo poora mahina continue raha steady decline ke sath. Ye downtrend doosre major pairs se zyada intense raha hai. Wave structure downward move kar raha hai, aur MACD indicator lower sell zone mein hai, apni signal line ke neeche. Third wave complete ho chuki hai, aur agar first wave par Fibonacci retracement apply karein, to hum dekhte hain ke minimum downside targets 161.8 aur 200 levels par reach ho chuke hain
Price ascending support line ko hit karta hai jo higher waves ke lows se draw hui hai, break through karte hue but support zone ke near horizontal level 0.5862 ko penetrate karne mein fail. Is se position closing hui sellers se aur new purchases hui, jise fourth wave mein slight rebound aya. Samajhne ki baat ye hai ke mahine ka end abhi abhi hua, monthly results lock karne ka waqt tha, jo price pullback ko lead karta hai. Technical reasons ke liye, four-hour chart par MACD par bullish divergence dikh raha hai. Ab, fifth wave mein decline ka continuation expected hai, jo significant minimum level 0.5862 ko update karega
Maine ye move last Friday ko expect kiya tha, lekin US news ki wajah se nahi hua. Non-farm payroll data forecast se bohot bura tha, US unemployment rate 0.2 points se barh gaya. Resultantly, price ne rally karne ki koshish ki but GBP aur EUR ke tarah surge nahi kar paya. Ye sellers ki strength indicate karta hai. Main ab bhi downward scenario ko likely dekhta hoo

Currency pair AUDUSD - daily chart period. Is hafte price kaafi barh rahi hai. Lekin abhi bhi yeh general downward trend ke dauran ek correction hi hai. Jab price ne 0.6632 ke main horizontal resistance level ko upar ki taraf break kiya, to price ab clearly purane weekly waves ke tops par banaye gaye main descending line ko test karne ki taraf ja rahi hai, aur wahan pe 0.6782 ka usual horizontal resistance level bhi aata hai. Points mein, wahan tak pohanchne ke liye zyada nahi bacha, lagbhag 50 points. Lekin yahan kharidari karna sahi nahi lagta, price apni akhirat par hai aur ho sakta hai ke specified resistance tak na pohanchay aur pehle hi girna shuru kar de. CCI indicator upper overheating zone mein enter ho chuka hai aur jaldi hi isse nikalne ke liye tayaar hai. Agar price specified resistances tak pohanchti hai, to wahan sale ke formation ko dekh sakte hain aur younger period pe switch kar sakte hain. Aap M15 pe bhi mirror level dekh sakte hain taake support resistance mein tabdeel ho jaye. Abhi ke liye, yahan bechna thoda jaldi hai, support ka kuch bhi nahi hai. Halankeh price bina support ke gir sakti hai, yeh dusre pairs par bhi depend karta hai, market connected hai. For example, euro dollar aur pound dollar lambi growth ke baad downward correction shuru karne ki koshish kar rahe hain. Agar yeh shuru hota hai, to yeh pair bhi gir sakti hai, chahe yeh specified targets tak na bhi pohanche. Phir bhi, euro dollar pair sabse important hai, jahan wo hota hai, wahan se baaki majors bhi draw hote hain, jo allies hote hain, aur opponents ulta image mein. Economic calendar ko dekhte hain to kal ki tarah aaj bhi shant hai, kuch khaas important nahi hai, isliye abnormal movements ki ummeed nahi hai. Filhaal intezaar karna hoga, agar thoda aur barhta hai to rebound par sale kar sakte hain. Aaj koi khas news nahi hai, sirf shaam ko Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ke meeting ke minutes hain.

AUD/USD jor ek multi-week high tak barh gaya hai, jo kuch key factors ke asar se hai. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) ne hawkish stance barqarar rakhi hai, jo ke suggest karti hai ke interest rates high reh sakti hain taake inflation ko roka ja sake. Ye nazariya China ke strong inflation data ke saath mazid mazboot hota hai, jo Australia ka major trading partner hai.
Iske ilawa, global markets mein positive risk sentiment ne Aussie ko support diya hai, kyunki traders U.S. Federal Reserve se 50 basis points rate cut ki ummeed kar rahe hain. Ye expectation softer U.S. economic data ki wajah se hai, jo Fed ko monetary policy dheela karne par majboor kar sakti hai. Iska natija ye hua ke U.S. dollar kamzor hua hai, jo AUD ko aur barhawa de raha hai.

In supportive factors ke bawajood, nazariya ehtiyaat se bharpur hai. RBA ne indicate kiya hai ke future rate decisions upcoming economic data, jaise consumer confidence aur employment figures, par depend karega. Agar consumer confidence barhta hai to ye consumer spending aur potentially higher inflation ka signal ho sakta hai, jo RBA ko additional rate hikes par consider karne par majboor kar sakta hai.

Iske sath hi, Australia ke labor market conditions bhi crucial hain. Tight labor markets wage growth aur consumer spending ko barha sakte hain, jo demand-driven inflation ko fuel kar sakta hai. Aise mein RBA apni tightening stance ko barqarar rakhne ka fayasla kar sakti hai. Lekin agar labor market kamzor dikhai deta hai, to RBA rate hike cycle ko pause ya reverse bhi kar sakti hai.

AUD/USD currency pair ko RBA ke hawkish stance, China ke strong inflation data, aur U.S. Federal Reserve se rate cut ke expectations se support mil raha hai, jisne U.S. dollar ko kamzor kiya hai.

Lekin, pair ke future direction largely Australia se aane wale economic data aur RBA ke response par depend karegi. Traders ko in developments par nazar rakhni chahiye taake ye assess kiya ja sake ke AUD/USD ka upward trend continue kar sakta hai ya nahi.

Daily chart par, ek noticeable long candle dekhne ko milti hai jo prolonged downward swing ke baad aayi hai, jo suggest karti hai ke sellers ka control kuch kamzor hua hai aur buyers momentum gain kar rahe hain. Ye currently valid bullish signal ko indicate karta hai

AUD/USD currency pair ke pricing movements ko samajhne par kendrit hai. Pichle hafte, Australian dollar ne 0.6351 par uptrend aur horizontal support ke beech ek majboot zone ka samna kiya. Is kshetra ka tezi se parikshan (jo chart par darshaya gaya hai) ek rebound ke saath hua. Iske baad, ek substantial shadow aur candle body uthi, jo bullish rang mein thi, yeh darshati hai ke Aussie shayad aage badhne ki koshish karega. Halankeh, iski raah mein ek majboot resistance hai—main moving average ki baat kar raha hoon, jo abhi bhi ek rukawat bana hua hai, halankeh yeh horizontal hai (jo koi spasht directional priority nahi darshata). Phir bhi, mujhe lagta hai ke yeh resistance temporary hoga, aur pair aakhirkar isse tod dega, khaaskar 0.681 ke aas-paas, is kshetra ka parikshan sambhavit hai.

Hafte ki shuruaat par, ek aur central currency pair, AUD/USD, ne bhi stock market ke sell-off ke karan volatility ka samna kiya. Commodity assets ne impulsively react kiya, jiski wajah se bears ne temporarily pair ko 0.6481 support level ke neeche push kiya. In paristhitiyon mein, bearish trend ka chalu rehna sambhav lag raha tha, lekin buyers ki soch alag thi. Halankeh yeh spike shayad kai traders ko apne positions par phir se vichar karne par majboor kiya, lekin support level ke neeche ek spasht false breakout hua, lekin iske neeche koi consolidation nahi thi. Yeh yeh darshata hai ke buyers ab bhi paristhiti par control rakhte hain, aur 0.6341 ke low ki taraf false move ne support ki majbooti ko sirf aur majboot kiya. Hafte ke ant tak, bulls ne 0.6561 resistance ka challenge karne ke liye wapas aayi, aur yeh lagta hai ke AUD/USD apne price range se bahar nikalne ki koshish karega, khaaskar jab trading thoda upar 0.6581 par band hui, jo 0.661 ke nazdeek hai. 0.671 par pahunchne ke baad bearish taraf ek rebound ho sakta hai, lekin yeh minimal hona chahiye, 0.6641-31 tak limited sales ke sath.

AUD/USD currency pair ka in-depth analysis dene ke liye shukriya. Aapne price movements ka achha vyakhya kiya hai, 0.6351 par majboot support, bullish rebound, aur moving average par majboot resistance ko highlight kiya hai.

Main aapse sehmat hoon ke resistance shayad temporary hoga, aur pair isse tod dega, 0.681 ke area ko target karte hue. 0.6481 support ke neeche false breakout aur 0.6561 resistance ko challenge karne ke liye subsequent wapas aane se yeh darshata hai ke buyers control mein hain.

Aapka 0.661 ke upar breakout ka sambhavit prediction, uske baad bearish taraf ek minimal rebound ka aana bhi sambhav lagta hai. 0.6641-31 tak limited sales ek buying opportunity pradan kar sakti hai.

AUD/USD currency pair ne Asian session mein peer ke din takreeban 0.6573 tak izafa dekha. Is harakat ke peechay kuch aham wajahen hain, jin mein Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) ki mazboot monetary policy ka rukh aur China se aane wale intezami tor par behtareen inflation data shamil hain.

RBA Ki Monetary Policy

RBA ne haal hi mein cash rate ko 4.35% par barqarar rakhne ka faisla kiya, jo yeh darust kar raha hai ke aane wale waqt mein mazeed rate hikes ki sambhavnayein maujood hain. Yeh rukh Australian dollar ko barhawa de raha hai, jo ke central bank ki taraf se ma'ashi challenges ka samna karne ka aazm hai.

China Ka Mazboot Inflation Data

Is ke ilawa, China ka consumer price index (CPI) data bhi ummeed se zyada behtar raha, jo Australian dollar ko mazeed support faraham kar raha hai. Yeh umeed ka isharah hai ke Australia aur China ke darmiyan ka ma'ashiyat ka rishta kitna gehra hai, jo dono maqamat ke bazaars ki interlinked nature ko dikhata hai.

Middle East Mein Geopolitical Khatar

In positive indicators ke bawajood, halat ab bhi naazuk hain, khaaskar Middle East mein chalu geopolitical khatarat ki wajah se. Jab ke kuch pehluon mein behtari dekhi gayi hai, lekin tensions ab bhi market stability ke liye aham khatar hain. Haal ki mein kuch incidents, khaaskar Iran ke saath potential conflicts ke silsilay mein, bazaar mein uncertainty daal rahe hain, jo AUD/USD pair ki upar ki taraf ka safar roknay ka sabab ban sakta hai.

Safe-Haven Assets Ki Demand

In geopolitical khatarat ne safe-haven assets, jaise ke US dollar ke liye demand ko barhawa diya hai, jo Australian currency par niche ki taraf dabao daal raha hai. US dollar ki quwat ko United States se aane wale mazboot ma'ashi indicators aur Federal Reserve ke hawkish rukh se mazeed taqat mil rahi hai, jo unhi high interest rates ko barqarar rakhnay par maind hai.

US Ma'ashi Indicators aur Market Ki Tafreeq

Bhalay hi market mein rate cuts ki sambhavnayon par guftagu hoti hai, lekin Federal Reserve ka darust rukh ab bhi rates ko uchai par rakhnay par kehnay se US dollar ki quwat barh rahi hai. Yeh Australian dollar jaisi currencies ke liye apne US ke mukablay mein upar badhni mushkil banata hai.

Technical Nigaah Se

Technical nazariye se dekhain to AUD/USD pair ne 0.6572 ka resistance face kiya hai. Agar ye resistance toota to mazeed gains ka rasta khul sakta hai. Lekin, niche ke khatar ab bhi maujood hain, khaaskar agar geopolitical tensions mein izafa hota hai ya agar US dollar mazeed achhay economical data ki wajah se mazboot hota hai.

Australian dollar Friday ke trading session mein thoda barh gaya jab market ka dhyan Jackson Hole Symposium par tha, khaaskar Jerome Powell ke expected speech par. Market ke hissedaar Powell ke remarks se koi bhi insight ka intezar kar rahe hain kyunke yeh US dollar ki trajectory ke liye agle kuch hafton ka rukh tay kar sakta hai.

Jab Australian dollar 0.68 level ke qareeb pohanch gaya, jo ek aham resistance zone hai, to yeh 50-point barrier mein daakhil ho gaya, jis par traders ghore se nazar rakhe hue hain. Agar yeh level break hota hai, to yeh ek bullish trend ka ishara ho sakta hai jo ke US dollar ki mazeed kamzori ko sabit karega, sirf Australian dollar ke muqable mein nahi balki doosri aham currencies ke muqable mein bhi.

Lekin agar Australian dollar ulat kar girta hai, to 0.6650 level ek aham support zone ke tor par kaam kar sakta hai, khaaskar 50-day EMA iss area se qareebi tor par juda hua hai. Agar currency yeh support todti hai, to agla target shayad 0.6450 level hoga. Yeh note karna zaroori hai ke Stochastic Oscillator is waqt yeh dikhata hai ke market overbought hai aur is region mein cross over karna shuru kar chuka hai, jo ek possible pullback ka ishara hai.

Is mahaul mein, market volatile aur unpredictable rehne ki umeed hai, jisme short-term fluctuations aur erratic trading behavior dekhne ko milega. Agarche breach ka imkaan hai, lekin ehtiyaat lazmi hai. Traders tab tak bare positions lene se katra sakte hain jab tak ek wazeh trend saamne nahi aata. Magar agar Australian dollar upside break kar leta hai, to yeh ek zyada mustahkam aur aham move higher ka rasta bana sakta hai, jo ke broader US dollar ki kamzori ko zahir karega.

Majmuan, jab market Jackson Hole Symposium se aham developments ka intezar kar raha hai, Australian dollar ka performance agle kuch sessions mein Powell ke speech ke broader implications aur market ke uske interpretation par depend karega.

Australian dollar is waqt daily chart par overbought condition ka shikar hai, jo yeh suggest karta hai ke ek downside aa sakti hai. Jaisay hi market participants aaj ke FOMC meeting par apna focus kar rahe hain, jo ke kuch hi minutes mein hone wali hai, woh Federal Reserve System ke members ki discussions se insight hasil karna chahtay hain. Focus yeh nahi hai ke aglay meeting mein rate cut hoga ya nahi, kyunki yeh outcome pehlay se hi market mein price ho chuka hai, balke yeh dekha ja raha hai ke future rate cuts ka extent aur frequency kya hogi.

Is baat par speculation hoti ja rahi hai ke yeh cuts kitnay baray honge, aur kuch pundits toh 75-base cut ki bhi baat kar rahe hain — jo zyada panic move lagti hai na ke strength ka sign. Is tarah ki speculation markets mein overreaction laa sakti hai, is liye yeh dekhna zaroori hai ke traders FOMC findings par kaise react karte hain.

In factors ko madde nazar rakhte hue, Australian dollar mein pullback zyada likely lagta hai, khaaskar jab yeh support level ke qareeb 0.6650 par aa raha hai. Upar ki taraf, 0.6850 level ek major resistance point ban sakta hai aur shayad currency ke liye ceiling ka kaam kare. Stochastic Oscillator, jo ke deep overbought zone mein hai, bhi ek possible reversal ka signal de raha hai jaisay yeh phir se niche move karne ke liye set hai.

Yeh overbought condition, aur traders ke recent gains ke baad profit lock-in karne ki likelihood ke saath, yeh suggest karte hain ke Aussie dollar ke upar near term mein kuch downward pressure aa sakta hai. Market correction ke liye taiyar lagti hai, khaaskar agar FOMC minutes aggressive rate cuts ke expectations ko temper karte hain. Conclusion yeh hai ke jabke Australian Dollar ne strength dikhayi hai, current market conditions aur technical indicators ek potential pullback ki taraf ishara karte hain, jahan key levels 0.6650 par support aur 0.6850 par resistance dekhne wali hain.

Abhi hum AUD/USD currency pair ke live pricing ko decode kar rahe hain. AUD/USD pair apna trend dheere dheere reverse kar rahi hai, halaanki U.S. dollar ke mazboot hone ka tasur diya ja raha hai. Expectations ke bawajood, dollar ne ab tak significant growth nahi dikhayi hai. Bohat se log ab bhi Powell ke Jackson Hole Economic Symposium me strategy reveal karne ka intezar kar rahe hain, khaaskar potential interest rate cuts ke hawale se. Aane wale elections ke sath, ye lagta hai ke September 17 se pehle, jab agla Fed meeting hoga, kisi clear decision ki umeed kam hai. Rate cut ki uncertainty abhi bhi maujood hai, kyunki agar aisa hota hai to inflationary surge ka khatra barh sakta hai. Ye meri raye hai, aur market aksar mukhtalif perspective rakhti hai. Dekhne wali baat hogi ke aaj ke Fed minutes pe market kaise react karta hai. Australian dollar 0.6348 tak pohanch sakta hai.

Pair ka rise karna jari reh sakta hai. Daily chart dikhata hai ke Monday, 18 August ko price barh kar historical resistance level 0.6708 ke upar close hui. Agle din, 19 August ko, ye 0.6735 pivot line ke upar close hui. Aaj pehli baar chaar din tak lagataar growth ke baad thodi si correction dekhi gayi hai. Lekin aaj ke Fed minutes ke release ke baad mazeed movement aasakti hai. Candlestick patterns aur MACD indicator mazeed growth ki taraf ishara karte hain jo ke resistance levels 0.6749, 0.6757, 0.6771, aur 0.6794 tak pahunch sakti hai, jahan historical resistance 0.6799 likely test hoga. Recent uptrend kafi strong raha hai. Aaj price 0.6735 ki reversal line aur shayad S1, S2, ya phir historical support 0.6707 tak correct ho sakti hai. Jab tak global risk sentiment mazboot rehta hai, pair apna upward trend jari rakhegi. Lekin, risk appetite me achanak shift hone ka imkaan hamesha hota hai.

H4 chart par, jo review pehle kiya tha, us mein AUD/USD market mein aglay entry ka koi saboot nahi tha jab tak ke last night ke baad, jab is hafte ke awal mein ek bara spike aya tha—aik upward trend. Pichle kuch dinon mein price surge ke koi signs nahi they ke 0.6610 high tak pohanch sake, aur Tuesday aur Wednesday night ke dauran, price movement clearly down thi aur ab 0.6530 par hai. Iss decline ke baad, price 20-Bollinger-band area ke centre mein wapas ayi aur 150-SMA ke upar rahi. Market ne pichle do dinon mein ek narrow range mein consolidation kiya hai. Iss waja se, ziada H4 period indicators abhi bhi upward direction ko point kar rahe hain. Bullish case ko ek boost ki zaroorat hai kyun ke Australian dollar ke mukablay mein pound kuch momentum dhoondta nazar aa raha hai.

Is waqt hum AUD/USD currency pair ke live pricing ko decode karne ki koshish kar rahe hain. AUD/USD pair ne recent market turmoil ke dauran doosray commodity currencies ka behavior mirror kiya, jahan yeh briefly apne yearly low 0.63493 tak chali gayi jab investors safe-haven assets mein shift kar gaye. Lekin, yeh pair is low par zyada der tak nahi rahi, jaldi se rebound karke apni initial level ke qareeb wapas agayi usi din. H4 time frame chart par, Tuesday, August 7 ki candle ne ek solid green top dikhaya. Better Volume indicator ne isse apne histogram par ek white bar ke saath highlight kiya, jo bears ke liye yeh signal tha ke unka dominance kam ho raha hai aur bulls control mein aa rahe hain. Is signal ke mutabiq, pair ne is hafte ke flat corridor 0.65652/0.64823 se breakout kiya aur 38.2% Fibonacci level tak pohanch gaya. Agle hafte Australian dollar ki mazeed growth anticipate ki ja rahi hai, jo ke 50.0% Fibonacci level tak pohanch sakti hai. AUD/USD ne significant weekly volatility experience ki, jo mostly Black Monday ki wajah se thi jab Japanese stock market ne nosedive kiya, jisse doosray markets bhi affect huye. Commodities, including the Aussie, sabse ziada hit hue. Lekin situation dramatically reverse hui, aur week ke end tak, chart par ek sizable bullish pin bar form hui. Yeh pattern sloping support ke rebound hone ke baad, around 0.6359, nazar ayi. Iss wajah se growth agle hafte tak persist kar sakti hai, provided pattern 0.6629 level ko break karay. Agar yeh hota hai, toh further growth inclined resistance ke qareeb 0.669 tak pohanch sakti hai. Agle hafte ka course largely Wednesday ke U.S. inflation statistics par depend karega. Pair ki recent decline lower border of the ascending channel tak nahi pohanch saki, isliye pair Monday se downward continue karegi, with a potential target at 0.6552. Iss level ko pohanchne par decline pause kar sakta hai, jisse price wapas push upwards ho sakti hai.

AUD/USD Weekly Outlook/Technical Analysis

Jab hum nayi hafte mein dakhil ho rahe hain, to AUD/USD pair apne daily chart par ek aham technical surat-e-haal pesh kar raha hai. Price ne 0.6577 ke aham horizontal resistance level ke upar apni position qaim kar li hai. Is level ke neeche price ko dhakelne ki koshishain nakam rahi hain, jo market mein bullish sentiment ka ishara hai.

Agar hum recent downward move par Fibonacci retracement apply karein, to price ne pehle 61.8% retracement level par rukawat ka samna kiya. Magar ye level bhi aakhirkar toot gaya, jo market mein US dollar ki kamzori ka ishara karta hai. Ab price ek aham technical resistance level par pohanch gaya hai jo 0.6695 par hai, jo ke momentum ke base par hamare expectations se mutabiq hai.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI) overbought zone ke qareeb hai, jo yeh batata hai ke current bullish phase apni taqat kho raha hai. Yeh signal deta hai ke halaan ke price mein abhi bhi kuch upward movement ho sakti hai, magar mazeed gains ka potential limited ho sakta hai, khaaskar jab ke CCI overbought conditions ke shift ka ishara de raha hai.

Is context mein, jab tak price 0.6695 level ki taraf jaa raha hai, ek potential corrective pullback ka intizaar karna zaroori hai. Agla support level 0.6632 par hai, jo ke pehle ke candles ke closing prices se derived hai. Yeh level ek critical support point ke tor par kaam karega, aur is taraf correction hone ka imkaan hai.

Jab price 0.6695 level ke qareeb pohanche, to shorter timeframes, jaise ke M15 chart par, ek potential selling opportunity observe karna chahiye. Reversal pattern ka intizaar karein jahan support level resistance mein tabdeel ho sakta hai, jo downward trade ke liye ek signal dega towards 0.6632 support level.

Corrective move ki umeed ko yeh baat aur mazid mazboot banati hai ke aaj kisi bara economic news ka intezar nahi hai, jo corrective decline ko rok sakti. Mazeed, doosri major currency pairs bhi critical levels par pohanch chuki hain aur downward correction ke liye tayar hain, jo broader market pullback ke imkaan ko mazid mazboot karti hai.

Summary mein, AUD/USD pair ne 0.6577 ke aham resistance level ke upar move kar ke strong performance dikhayi hai aur ab ek nayi technical resistance par pohanch gaya hai jo ke 0.6695 par hai. Magar, CCI ke overbought conditions aur kisi bara news event ke na hone ki wajah se, 0.6632 support level ki taraf ek corrective pullback ka imkaan hai. Traders ko 0.6695 ke qareeb potential selling opportunities ko monitor karna chahiye, khaaskar shorter timeframes par, aur ek possible retracement ka intezar karna chahiye pehle ke further bullish positions consider karein.