ای aud/usd کی تجزیہ اور مارکیٹ کے رجحانات

AUD/USD jor ek multi-week high tak barh gaya hai, jo kuch key factors ke asar se hai. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) ne hawkish stance barqarar rakhi hai, jo ke suggest karti hai ke interest rates high reh sakti hain taake inflation ko roka ja sake. Ye nazariya China ke strong inflation data ke saath mazid mazboot hota hai, jo Australia ka major trading partner hai.
Iske ilawa, global markets mein positive risk sentiment ne Aussie ko support diya hai, kyunki traders U.S. Federal Reserve se 50 basis points rate cut ki ummeed kar rahe hain. Ye expectation softer U.S. economic data ki wajah se hai, jo Fed ko monetary policy dheela karne par majboor kar sakti hai. Iska natija ye hua ke U.S. dollar kamzor hua hai, jo AUD ko aur barhawa de raha hai.

In supportive factors ke bawajood, nazariya ehtiyaat se bharpur hai. RBA ne indicate kiya hai ke future rate decisions upcoming economic data, jaise consumer confidence aur employment figures, par depend karega. Agar consumer confidence barhta hai to ye consumer spending aur potentially higher inflation ka signal ho sakta hai, jo RBA ko additional rate hikes par consider karne par majboor kar sakta hai.

Iske sath hi, Australia ke labor market conditions bhi crucial hain. Tight labor markets wage growth aur consumer spending ko barha sakte hain, jo demand-driven inflation ko fuel kar sakta hai. Aise mein RBA apni tightening stance ko barqarar rakhne ka fayasla kar sakti hai. Lekin agar labor market kamzor dikhai deta hai, to RBA rate hike cycle ko pause ya reverse bhi kar sakti hai.

AUD/USD currency pair ko RBA ke hawkish stance, China ke strong inflation data, aur U.S. Federal Reserve se rate cut ke expectations se support mil raha hai, jisne U.S. dollar ko kamzor kiya hai.

Lekin, pair ke future direction largely Australia se aane wale economic data aur RBA ke response par depend karegi. Traders ko in developments par nazar rakhni chahiye taake ye assess kiya ja sake ke AUD/USD ka upward trend continue kar sakta hai ya nahi.

Daily chart par, ek noticeable long candle dekhne ko milti hai jo prolonged downward swing ke baad aayi hai, jo suggest karti hai ke sellers ka control kuch kamzor hua hai aur buyers momentum gain kar rahe hain. Ye currently valid bullish signal ko indicate karta hai

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Hamari guftagu ka markaz ab AUD/USD currency pair ka mojooda price behaviour hai, jisko hum analyze kar rahe hain. Yeh baat ziada ehmiyat ki haamil hai ke moving averages ke itna horizontal hone ki wajah se, current average prices mein uncertainty hai. Magar phir bhi, do maheenon ka average price thora sa annual price se upar hai, jo ke ek potential reversal ki taraf ishara kar raha hai. Yeh possibility isliye barh jaati hai kyun ke recent decline ke baad ek strong rebound hua hai jo ke peechlay low ke qareeb tha, jahan 140 points lambi tail bottom par chor di gayi thi. Tab se price steadily upar ja raha hai, jo ke bearish side ki "journey" ka aghaz ho sakta hai. Main dekh raha hoon ke yeh pair hourly chart par ek ascending channel ke andar move kar raha hai. Aaj price is channel ki upper boundary tak chali gayi hai, jo ke 0.6724 hai. Is point par, mujhe lagta hai ke reversal ho sakta hai, jahan se yeh pair downward ja sakta hai. Agar yeh decline hoti hai, to price channel ki lower boundary tak ja sakti hai, jo ke 0.6683 ke qareeb hai. Aaj ki trading ke liye, buy karna meri priority hai.

Lekin, mojooda level 0.67205 par buy positions kholna itna acha option nahi hai. Main ek better entry point ka intezar karunga jo ke support level 0.66005 ke qareeb hoga. Price ko is level tak pohanchne ke liye thoda dip karna padega. Meri profit ki target 0.67331 par hai. Mujhe umeed hai ke meri strategy waise hi unfold hogi jaisa main expect kar raha hoon. Agar price decline hoti hai, to ho sakta hai ke woh stagnant lagay—koi significant downward movement nazar na aaye. Lekin price confidently ek upward trend mein surge kar sakti hai, aur obstacles, levels, aur critical markers ko baghair ziada resistance ke overcome kar sakti hai. Choti moti rukawatein, jaise ke H1 chart par, zyada asar nahi dalengi, jabke bari rukawatein, jaise ke daily time frame par, sirf thoda sa movement ko slow karengi. Recently, H4 chart par, daily time frame se ek benchmark ke qareeb 0.6699 par thoda pause aaya, magar upper benchmark jo ke 0.6711 tha, us par ziada farq nahi para.

AUD/USD currency pair ka present pricing behavior analyze kar rahay hain. Technical analysis se yeh pata chalta hai ke yeh currency pair ek downtrend me hai, jo ke indicators se bhi support ho raha hai. Zigzag, MACD, aur Trend indicators bhi bearish movement ki taraf ishara karte hain, aur yeh indicators overbought zone me hain, jo ke short selling ke liye strong potential dikhate hain.

Halaat ko dekhte huye, mai apni open position ko 78.6% Fibo target pe secure karne ka plan kar raha hoon, jo ke 0.64654 pe mark hai. Lekin risk ko kam karne ke liye, jaise hi order positive territory me enter karega, mai usay break even pe move kar dunga. Trading opportunities ko evaluate karne ke baad, priority growth ke dauran buying pe hai. Jo current price level 0.66972 hai, us point se buying start karna ziada advantageous nahi hoga. Is liye, yeh zaroori hai ke sab se favorable support level identify kiya jaye, jo ke 0.66072 pe hai, aur iska associated stop loss 0.66047 pe hai.

Price ko in anticipated levels tak dip karna hoga is strategy ke kamiyab hone ke liye. Lekin, agar 0.67059 pe profit ka aim rakha jaye to yeh strong return promise karta hai, ek impressive stop-profit ratio ke sath. 0.66660 level bhi ek accumulation zone bana sakta hai, jo ke close attention demand karta hai, magar yeh minor consideration hai.

AUD/USD pair ka focus buying pe hai. Analytical activities engage karne se yeh forecast karne ki ability enhance hoti hai ke AUD/USD ka movement kaisa hoga, jo ke profitable trading opportunities provide karta hai aur trading decisions me confidence lata hai. Is liye, analytical skills refine karna successful trading ke liye essential hai. Pair growth show karta hai balance aur MACD indicator lines ke upar four-hour chart pe, aur Marlin thori consolidation ke baad zero line ke qareeb rise kar raha hai. Initial momentum establish ho chuka hai aur maintain bhi hai.

Recommendations: Focus buying pe rakhein, aur further growth anticipate karte huye, khas tor pe agar 0.6726 resistance level break hota hai aur uske baad consolidation hoti hai.

AUD/USD Price Momentum

Hamari guftagu mein AUD/USD currency pair ke price ka current behavior analyze ho raha hai. Dilchasp baat yeh hai ke AUDUSD ke buyers ab bhi active hain, halaanke upward trend chal raha hai. Yeh channel ka revision zaroori lagta hai, kyunke quotation movement vector mein shift hua hai. Yeh aj ke market ke calm aur weak news backdrop ke bawajood ajib lagta hai. Kuch trading sessions ke tabdeeli se kuch badal sakta hai, lekin filhal focus selling par hai. Agar sellers local ascending regression channel ke lower boundary 0.6659 ko break karte hain, to ek significant drop hone ki umeed hai. Abhi sirf local sales hi consider kar raha hoon aur koi badi decline nahi dekh raha. Chalo, ab dekhte hain AUDUSD currency pair ka current scenario. Asset local upward movement ka shikar hai, jo 0.6759 ke critical resistance range ko test karne ke liye tayaar hai. Lekin abhi long-term position lena acha nahi lagta kyunke growth potential kam nazar aata hai.


Resistance range jo 0.6739 se 0.6759 tak hai, yeh crucial hai aur ek unbalanced zone ka kaam karti hai. Isliye, short position lower boundary ko retest karne par li ja sakti hai. Stop loss, trading algorithm ke mutabiq, 0.6804 ke nearest resistance level par rakha gaya tha. Yeh false breakouts se protection provide karta hai aur risk ko minimize karta hai. Order open karne ke baad decline ki umeed hai, kam se kam pehle support level 0.6649 tak, jahan stop loss ko break even par set karna chahiye taake position secure rahe. Initial profit target 0.6599 hai, jahan partial profit le liya jayega. Lekin, agar 0.6599 support area already test ho chuka hai, to subsequent retest se breakthrough ho sakta hai, jo aage 0.6549 tak decline ka sabab ban sakta hai. Yahan potential acha hai aur risk-to-reward ratio bhi satisfactory hai.

Aap ke AUD/USD pair ke analysis kaafi detailed hai, aur aap ne technical aspects aur current market conditions ka ghor se jaiza li

Live Analysis: AUD/USD Currency Pair

Is waqt AUD/USD market sellers ke haqq mein ja rahi hai, aur imbalance waazeh taur pe unke favor mein hai. Market ka jo current quote hai 0.67427, yeh selling ke liye ek acha range hai, aur iski wajah se mujhe sell order place karne ka confidence mil raha hai. Jese ke bears dheere dheere aage barh rahe hain, buyers ki taraf se zyada resistance nahi hai, jo ke short positions ke liye favorable conditions ko dikhata hai. Main apni position ko nearest support level, 0.67142 par close karne ka plan kar raha hoon taake potential profits ko safe rakh sakoon. Loss se bachne ke liye maine stop loss 0.67446 par set kiya hai. Agar support level 0.67142 break hota hai, to market mein sellers ke favor mein mazeed strong movement dekhne ko mil sakti hai.


H4 time frame par AUD/USD pair ko dekhte hue ek ascending channel nazar aa raha hai jismein ek impulsive structure unfold ho raha hai. Is upward impulse mein teen internal waves form hui hain: Wave 1 initial diagonal ke taur pe, jo ke sabse wide price range mein thi; Wave 2 ek extended zigzag ke taur pe; aur Wave 3 ek impulse ke taur pe.

Iske baad, senior impulse ki final Wave 5 previous weekly high 0.6800 ko update kar sakti hai. Notably, upcoming news, especially Powell ki key speech se pehle, bohat ahmiyat rakhti hai. Market volatile hai, jo ke potential opportunities ko dikhata hai. Technical standpoint se analysis yeh suggest karta hai ke AUD/USD ki upward trend continue ho sakti hai, jo ke pichle kuch dinon ya hafton se steadily rise kar rahi hai. Yeh strong growth, ek sharp reversal ke baad, momentum ki strength ko dikhata hai. Halanki kuch external factors bullish trend ko challenge kar sakte hain, technical indicators strong growth ko indicate karte hain, jiska pehla target 0.6781 zone ke aas paas hai. Kyunki asset critical overbought state mein hai, ek flat correction as Wave 4 develop ho sakti hai, jismein quotes 0.6704 se upar consolidate kar sakte hain.

Mazboot Australian July employment data Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) ke liye kuch pareshani ka sabab ban sakta hai. Full-time employment mein mazid izafa ho sakta hai jo RBA ko New Zealand ki tarah poori tarah se easing mood mein jane se rok sakta hai, aur shayad ye Waqt September mein Fed ke liye bhi dekhne ko milay, jaise ke ING ke FX strategist Chris Turner ne kaha. "Iska matlab yeh hai ke Australian Dollar (AUD) cross pairs mein acha perform karega. August ke shuru mein AUD/NZD ke girne ka matlab hai ke investors ne is cross ko upar trade karne ki umeed rakhi thi, magar yen-triggered deleveraging ne isko unwind kar diya. Ab hum dekh sakte hain ke yeh cross mid-July ke 1.1150 highs ko phir se test kare. "Agar Fed September mein cut kare aur US yield curve aur ziada steep ho jaye, to EUR/AUD neeche aana chahiye. Magar yeh bhi ho sakta hai ke China ki macro weakness AUD ko yahan rokh rahi ho. Overall, ek mahine ka target 0.68 hai AUD/USD ke liye. **AUD/USD**
Budh ke din, Australian dollar ne 0.6640 ka target level haasil kar liya, phir wahan se (MACD line aur 61.8% Fibonacci level se) neeche chala gaya, aur aaj subah 0.6570 ke support ko chhoo gaya. Yeh izafa Australia mein employment data ke release hone ke wajah se hua—Australia mein July mein 58,200 jobs create hui, jab ke forecast 20,200 thi, aur participation rate 66.9% se barh kar 67.1% hogayi, jiski wajah se ultimately unemployment 4.1% se barh kar 4.2% hogayi. Magar investors ne in data ko overall positive samjha. Iske ilawa, Japan ka GDP dusre quarter mein 3.1% barh gaya, jab ke umeed 2.1% ki thi
Price ko 0.6640 ke strong resistance ko overcome karna hoga ziada substantial movement ke liye, kam az kam 0.6680 ka target level haasil karne ke liye. Jab ke raw materials abhi bhi gir rahe hain, yeh sirf tab mumkin hai jab U.S. dollar globally weak ho jaye. Filhaal, yeh ek neutral position mein hai
4-hour chart mein, price balance line (red moving average) ke upar hai, aur Marlin oscillator wapas growth territory mein chala gaya hai. Nateeja tan, aussie abhi neutral range mein hai 0.6570-0.6640 ke darmiyan. Is range ke beyond breakout hi uske aage ka movement tay karega

4-hour time frame par khol kar current trend check karte hain. Aaj market humein long transactions ke liye achi opportunity de rahi hai, kyun ke buyers ki strength sellers ke ability se zyada hai, jo situation ko nahi badal pa rahe hain. Agla step yeh hoga ke HamaSystem, RSI Trend, aur Magnetic_Levels_Color indicators ka istemal karke analysis karein. Dono Hama aur RSI trend indicators yeh indicate karte hain ke H1 time frame par market bullish mode mein hai - dono indicators blue aur green hain, jo buyers ki current strength ko reflect karte hain. Isliye, hum confidently buy deal open karenge. Hum exit ke liye magnetic level indicator ka use karenge. Filhal, ideal level 0.658944 hai. Phir, price movement ko chart par dekh kar decide karenge ke position ko market mein rakhna hai ya profit fix karna hai.
Profit maximize karne ke liye, trailing stop (sliding stop order, trailing) add karna behtar hoga, jo pehle larger positions ko close karega aur phir baqi positions ko break-even par le aayega. Basement indicator bundles low points par achi performance dikhate hain. Main puri tarah confident hoon ke ab rise hoga. Market sentiment bhi ek critical factor hai jo AUD/USD pair mein significant movements drive kar sakta hai. Sentiment mukhtalif factors, jaise economic data, geopolitical events, aur central bank policies se influence hota hai. Traders ke perceptions aur reactions in factors par swift aur substantial movements ko lead kar sakte hain.
Agar market ko lagta hai ke Australian economy US economy ke muqablay mein strong ho rahi hai, to Australian dollar ki demand barh sakti hai, jo AUD/USD pair ko upar push karega. Agar market global uncertainties ki wajah se risk-averse ho jati hai, to USD apni safe-haven currency status ke saath faida utha sakta hai, jo AUD/USD pair ko neeche kheench sakta hai. Isliye, market sentiment ko mukhtalif indicators aur news sources ke zariye monitor karna zaroori hai taake currency pair ke potential movements ko anticipate

اگست 22 2024 کو اے یو ڈی/امریکی ڈالر کی پیشن گوئی

آسٹریلوی ڈالر نزولی قیمت چینل کی بالائی حد تک پہنچ گیا ہے۔ روزانہ چارٹ پر مارلن آسیلیٹر نیچے کی طرف مڑنے لگا ہے۔ ہو سکتا ہے قیمت مزید نہ بڑھے اور 0.6640 کی سطح سے نیچے گہری اصلاح میں تبدیل ہو سکتی ہے، جس کا مطلب یہ بھی ہو گا کہ ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. لائن سے نیچے گرنا، یہاں تک کہ اگر اوپری رجحان کا ممکنہ تسلسل بھی ہو۔ اس صورت میں، ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. لائن کو توڑنا غلط بریک آؤٹ ہوگا۔



قیمت کو موجودہ سطحوں سے اپنے اوپر کی رفتار کو جاری رکھنے کے لیے، اسے 0.6800 کی سطح سے اوپر مضبوط ہونا چاہیے۔ اس منظر نامے میں 40% امکان ہے، کیونکہ قیمت فی الحال 0.6727 سے اوپر ہے، اور ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. لائن اوپر کی طرف مڑ گئی ہے۔

چار گھنٹے کے چارٹ میں، قیمت ٹوٹی ہوئی سطح سے اوپر مستحکم ہو جاتی ہے، مارلن آسیلیٹر میں نرمی اور اوپر کی طرف حرکت کو دوبارہ شروع کرنے کے ارادے سے گرتا ہے۔

ترقی کے لیے ایک محفوظ اصلاح 0.6691 کی سطح تک بڑھ سکتی ہے، جو ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. لائن کے قریب آرہی ہے۔ اگر قیمت اس سطح سے نیچے مستحکم ہوتی ہے، تو اس کا مطلب یہ بھی ہوگا کہ ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. لائن کے نیچے مضبوط ہونا، 0.6640 سپورٹ کی طرف بڑھنے کا اشارہ دینا، جس پر ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. لائن پہلے ہی روزانہ چارٹ میں پہنچ چکی ہے۔



تعینات کیا مراد ہے مارکیٹ کے تجزیات یہاں ارسال کیے جاتے ہیں جس کا مقصد آپ کی بیداری بڑھانا ہے، لیکن تجارت کرنے کے لئے ہدایات دینا نہیں*

**Australian Dollar ki Trade aur Future Projection:**

Australian dollar abhi US dollar ke muqablay mein consolidation phase mein trade kar raha hai, jo ke ek positive business activity report ke baad aya hai. Market AUD ke liye mazeed gains ki umeed kar rahi hai, kyunki Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) apni monetary policy par hawkish stance banaaye hue hai. RBA ke August meeting ke recent minutes se ye saaf hua hai ke central bank shayad interest rates ko lambi muddat ke liye unchanged rakhe. Yeh faisla RBA ki inflation se ladein aur economic growth ko support karne ki ongoing koshish se aligned hai. Is ke bawajood, Australian Judo Bank composite purchasing managers' index (PMI) August mein 51.4 tak barh gaya, jo ke teen mahine ka sabse tez expansion darshata hai. Yeh growth zyada tar services sector ke strong performance ki wajah se hui, jab ke manufacturing output mein contraction dekhne ko mili.

Doosri taraf, US dollar ko rising US Treasury yields se support mil raha hai. Lekin, greenback ko challenges ka samna hai, kyunki July mein Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting ke minutes se yeh pata chala ke zyada tar Fed officials September mein rate cut ki taraf lean kar rahe hain, provided inflation moderate rahe. Traders bhi Fed Chair Jerome Powell ki Jackson Hole symposium mein Friday ko hone wali speech ko closely monitor kar rahe hain. Powell ke remarks Fed ke future monetary policy path ke bare mein valuable insights de sakte hain aur US dollar ke direction ko impact kar sakte hain.

**Technical Analysis:**

Technically, AUD/USD pair ek ascending channel ke andar consolidate kar raha hai, jo ke upward bias ko suggest karta hai. 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI abhi 70 level ke thoda niche hai, jo ke bullish momentum ko support karta hai. Lekin, agar price aur barhti hai to yeh indicate kar sakta hai ke pair overbought zone mein hai, jo ke correction lead kar sakta hai. Upside par, AUD/USD 0.6798 ke 7-month high ko test kar sakta hai. Agar is level ko break kar diya, to pair ko 0.6860 ke aas-paas ke area tak push kiya ja sakta hai, jo ke ascending channel ki upper boundary hai. Downside par, pair ko 0.6700 ke lower bound ke paas support mil sakta hai, aur iske baad nine-day exponential moving average (EMA) 0.6683 par bhi support dekhne ko mil sakta hai. Nine-day EMA ke niche girne par further declines dekhne ko mil sakte hain, jahan potential support levels 0.6575 aur 0.6470 hain.

AUD/USD Pair Ki Analysis AUD/USD pair ne kuch arse se aik range mein trade kiya hai, aur meri analysis is baat ki nishandahi karti hai ke yeh pair support level 0.65209 tak gir sakta hai. Yeh level historically ek mazboot base provide karta hai, jo ke take-profit targets set karne ke liye bohot ahem hai. Yeh strategy market ke existing downward trend ke continuation ke expect karne ke mutabiq hai. Lekin, market mein kisi bhi unexpected shift ki surat mein stop-loss mechanisms ko activate karna bohot zaroori hoga taake possible losses se bacha ja sake. Forex markets ki dynamic nature ka demand hota hai ke trader flexible rahe, aur naye resistance levels ko samajhna ek strong trading strategy ka important hissa hota hai. Agar resistance aajata hai, to 0.65379 level pe buy karna ek viable option ban sakta hai, jo ke is support point se potential upward reversal se faida uthane ka moka de sakta hai
Recent Movements Aur Liquidity Considerations
Recent movements ki baat ki jaye to 0.68117 resistance level ki taraf jo rise hui hai, woh bhi noteworthy hai. Yeh rise unexpected thi, primarily US inflation ke stagnant rehne ki wajah se, jo aam tor pe US dollar par downward pressure daalta hai. 0.68117 tak ka yeh surge lagta hai ke seller stops ko remove karne ke liye kiya gaya, jo ke ek liquidity grab ki nishandahi kar raha hai. Aise movements aksar stop-loss orders ko clear karne ke liye hotay hain, taake bade market participants apne trades ke liye behtar entry points hasil kar sakein
Is upward movement ke bawajood, main 0.68117 ke beyond further ascent anticipate nahi kar raha, kyun ke US mein inflationary pressure ki significant kami hai. Stagnant inflation aam tor pe Federal Reserve ke aggressive rate hikes ke prospects ko dampen karta hai, jo dollar ki attractiveness ko kam kar deta hai. Isliye, 0.68117 tak ka yeh rally ziada tar temporary spike lagti hai, na ke aik sustained uptrend ki shuruaat
Summary Aur Strategic Recommendations
Summary mein, AUD/USD pair ki current analysis suggest karti hai ke 0.65938 pe aik strategic sell entry di jaye, take profit ke sath 0.65379 pe, jo ke historical support levels aur recent price movements pe base karti hai. Unexpected rise towards 0.68117, jo lagta hai seller stops ko clear karne ke liye ki gayi thi, potential volatility ki nishandahi karti hai aur yeh emphasize karti hai ke trading decisions mein flexibility zaroori hai. Market structures ko closely monitor karna aur changes ke mutabiq apne strategies ko adjust karna Forex trading ki complexities ko effectively navigate karne ke liye zaroori hai. Chahe yeh pair apni decline ko continue kare ya naye resistance levels ka samna kare, strategies ko accordingly adjust karne ke liye tayar rehna trading success hasil karne ke liye bohot zaroori hai
Future Projections Aur Monitoring
AUD/USD pair mein decline ka phase shayad complete ho gaya hai, jo ke upward movement ke recommencement ki nishandahi karta hai. Yeh development tawajju talab hai, kyun ke aane wale events ke do possible scenarios ho sakte hain. Labor market ne mukhtalif factors ko process kar liya hai, lekin agle hafte mein repercussions unfold honge. Further declines ke hawale se, main is waqt dollar ke against significant growth expect nahi kar raha. Mera khayal hai ke hum upward direction ki taraf jaa rahe hain, jo ke technically ziada stable lag raha hai
Agar daily meframe pe dekha jaye, to chart structure slow down hota nazar aata hai, aur main confident hoon ke upward movement continue karega. Yeh note karna zaroori hai ke current chart ne multiple times is direction ka signal diya hai. Jabke mujhe market mein buyers ke entry ka exact time predict karna mushkil hota hai, main is waqt apni conclusions pe convinced hoon. Main long positions kholne ke liye tayar hoon jab ek significant downward rebound hoga; lekin main is range mein jaldi nahi karunga, aur continuously evaluate karunga ke potential losses ko kaise limit kiya jaye. Generally, main jaldi nahi kar raha, aur believe karta hoon ke aage ke market developments ko monitor karna crucial hai

**AUD/USD Analysis**

Aaj hum AUD/USD currency pair ke price movements ka analysis karenge. AUD/USD pair ne Friday ko buying activity dekhi, aur daily chart ek continued upward trend ko indicate karta hai. Critical question yeh hai ke kya yeh bullish movement continue karegi ya hume kisi alternative scenario ke liye prepare rehna chahiye. Isko clarify karne ke liye, Monday ke liye technical analysis ko dekhte hain aur dekhte hain ke yeh kya recommendations provide karta hai.

Technical analysis ke mutabiq, moving averages active buying ko suggest karte hain, technical indicators bhi buying ko recommend karte hain, aur overall output bhi buying ko support karta hai. Yeh analysis Monday ke liye bullish outlook ko suggest karta hai.

Australia se koi significant updates expected nahi hain. Lekin, U.S. apna leading economic indicators index release karega, jo forecasted hai ke negative hoga.

**AUD/USD Potential Bearish Move Analysis**

Aaj ke current situation ko dekhte hue, ek bearish move ka possibility hai jo trading instrument ke price mein notable drop laa sakta hai. Yeh situation tab ho sakti hai agar market open hone ke baad AUD/USD pair aur upar push nahi kar pati aur 0.6598 level ke upar consolidate nahi karti, jo recent price increase mein tha. Agar yeh scenario banta hai, to ek downward trend shuru ho sakta hai, jahan price directly bearish move kar sakti hai. Yeh scenario tab zyada likely ho jayega agar price market open hone ke baad 0.6514 ke accumulation area tak girti hai aur wahan se upar aane ki koshish karti hai. Is case mein, AUD/USD pair ko 0.6554 level ko surpass karne mein struggle ho sakti hai.

Agar yeh resistance hold karta hai, to price 0.6554 se gir kar bearish direction ki taraf move kar sakti hai, aur 0.6449 ke area tak jaa sakti hai, jahan significant amounts of money hain.

Support ke liye, AUD/USD ascending channel ka lower boundary around 0.6630 hai, jo exchange rate ke liye immediate support hai, uske baad 9-day moving average jo 0.6618 ke aas-paas hai. Agar price moving average se neeche girti hai, to pair pullback level 0.6575 ko test kar sakti hai. Agar pair is support area se neeche girti hai, to yeh bearish bias ko indicate kar sakta hai jo pair ko pullback level 0.6470 ki taraf le jaa sakta hai.

AUD/USD jor ek multi-week high tak barh gaya hai, jo kuch key factors ke asar se hai. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) ne hawkish stance barqarar rakhi hai, jo ke suggest karti hai ke interest rates high reh sakti hain taake inflation ko roka ja sake. Ye nazariya China ke strong inflation data ke saath mazid mazboot hota hai, jo Australia ka major trading partner hai.
Iske ilawa, global markets mein positive risk sentiment ne Aussie ko support diya hai, kyunki traders U.S. Federal Reserve se 50 basis points rate cut ki ummeed kar rahe hain. Ye expectation softer U.S. economic data ki wajah se hai, jo Fed ko monetary policy dheela karne par majboor kar sakti hai. Iska natija ye hua ke U.S. dollar kamzor hua hai, jo AUD ko aur barhawa de raha hai.

In supportive factors ke bawajood, nazariya ehtiyaat se bharpur hai. RBA ne indicate kiya hai ke future rate decisions upcoming economic data, jaise consumer confidence aur employment figures, par depend karega. Agar consumer confidence barhta hai to ye consumer spending aur potentially higher inflation ka signal ho sakta hai, jo RBA ko additional rate hikes par consider karne par majboor kar sakta hai.

Iske sath hi, Australia ke labor market conditions bhi crucial hain. Tight labor markets wage growth aur consumer spending ko barha sakte hain, jo demand-driven inflation ko fuel kar sakta hai. Aise mein RBA apni tightening stance ko barqarar rakhne ka fayasla kar sakti hai. Lekin agar labor market kamzor dikhai deta hai, to RBA rate hike cycle ko pause ya reverse bhi kar sakti hai.

AUD/USD currency pair ko RBA ke hawkish stance, China ke strong inflation data, aur U.S. Federal Reserve se rate cut ke expectations se support mil raha hai, jisne U.S. dollar ko kamzor kiya hai.

Lekin, pair ke future direction largely Australia se aane wale economic data aur RBA ke response par depend karegi. Traders ko in developments par nazar rakhni chahiye taake ye assess kiya ja sake ke AUD/USD ka upward trend continue kar sakta hai ya nahi.

Daily chart par, ek noticeable long candle dekhne ko milti hai jo prolonged downward swing ke baad aayi hai, jo suggest karti hai ke sellers ka control kuch kamzor hua hai aur buyers momentum gain kar rahe hain. Ye currently valid bullish signal ko indicate karta hai

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AUD/USD jor ek multi-week high tak barh gaya hai, jo kuch key factors ke asar se hai. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) ne hawkish stance barqarar rakhi hai, jo ke suggest karti hai ke interest rates high reh sakti hain taake inflation ko roka ja sake. Ye nazariya China ke strong inflation data ke saath mazid mazboot hota hai, jo Australia ka major trading partner hai.
Iske ilawa, global markets mein positive risk sentiment ne Aussie ko support diya hai, kyunki traders U.S. Federal Reserve se 50 basis points rate cut ki ummeed kar rahe hain. Ye expectation softer U.S. economic data ki wajah se hai, jo Fed ko monetary policy dheela karne par majboor kar sakti hai. Iska natija ye hua ke U.S. dollar kamzor hua hai, jo AUD ko aur barhawa de raha hai.

In supportive factors ke bawajood, nazariya ehtiyaat se bharpur hai. RBA ne indicate kiya hai ke future rate decisions upcoming economic data, jaise consumer confidence aur employment figures, par depend karega. Agar consumer confidence barhta hai to ye consumer spending aur potentially higher inflation ka signal ho sakta hai, jo RBA ko additional rate hikes par consider karne par majboor kar sakta hai.

Iske sath hi, Australia ke labor market conditions bhi crucial hain. Tight labor markets wage growth aur consumer spending ko barha sakte hain, jo demand-driven inflation ko fuel kar sakta hai. Aise mein RBA apni tightening stance ko barqarar rakhne ka fayasla kar sakti hai. Lekin agar labor market kamzor dikhai deta hai, to RBA rate hike cycle ko pause ya reverse bhi kar sakti hai.

AUD/USD currency pair ko RBA ke hawkish stance, China ke strong inflation data, aur U.S. Federal Reserve se rate cut ke expectations se support mil raha hai, jisne U.S. dollar ko kamzor kiya hai.

Lekin, pair ke future direction largely Australia se aane wale economic data aur RBA ke response par depend karegi. Traders ko in developments par nazar rakhni chahiye taake ye assess kiya ja sake ke AUD/USD ka upward trend continue kar sakta hai ya nahi.

Daily chart par, ek noticeable long candle dekhne ko milti hai jo prolonged downward swing ke baad aayi hai, jo suggest karti hai ke sellers ka control kuch kamzor hua hai aur buyers momentum gain kar rahe hain. Ye currently valid bullish signal ko indicate karta hai

US Dollar apne support ko dhoondhne mein mushkilat ka samna kar raha hai, jabke traders ko yaqeen hai ke Fed rate cuts honge. Sab ki nazarain ab Fed ke Chair Jerome Powell par hain, jo Jackson Hole mein rate cuts ko confirm kar sakte hain. US Dollar index 101.00 ke thoda upar trade kar raha hai aur agar ye weak sentiment barqarar rehti hai toh 100.00 tak gir sakta hai.

USD broadly flat trade kar raha hai, jab Wednesday ke US session ke start mein heavy selling hui, jo isay 2024 ke naye low ki taraf le gayi. Nonfarm Payrolls revision ne 818,000 jobs kam hone ko highlight kiya, jo ke pechle andaze se zyada thay, aur ye aakhri das saalon ki sab se badi downward revision thi. Yeh market concerns ko confirm karta hai ke US job market mein mushkilat hain. Baad mein Fed Minutes ka release hua jo July meeting ke liye tha, aur isne confirm kiya ke kuch FOMC ke members ne us waqt rate cut ka kaha tha, jo ab September mein lagbhag certain hai.

**AUD/USD Analysis:**

Daily chart analysis yeh darsha rahi hai ke AUD/USD price mazeed barh sakti hai aur bullish bias mazid strong ho raha hai. 9-day EMA ab 50-day EMA ke upar hai, jo recent price action ke longer-term trend ko outperform karne ka ishara hai. 0.6798 ka seven-month high ek important barrier ke tor par saamne aa raha hai.

Thursday ke European hours mein AUD/USD apne recent losses ko retrace karte huay 0.6750 ke aas-paas trade kar raha hai. Daily chart analysis yeh suggest karti hai ke pair ek ascending channel pattern ke andar upwards trend kar raha hai, jo bullish bias ko mazid reinforce kar raha hai.

14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) slightly below 70 level par consolidate kar raha hai, jo yeh dikhata hai ke bullish momentum abhi bhi play mein hai. Lekin agar RSI 70 ko touch karta hai, toh yeh signal karega ke AUD/USD pair overbought territory mein dakhil ho raha hai, jo ek potential correction ka indication de sakta hai.



Mazid, daily chart analysis yeh bhi dikhati hai ke 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ab 50-day EMA ke upar hai, jo aksar ek bullish signal ke tor par liya jata hai. Yeh suggest karta hai ke recent price action longer-term trend ko outperform kar raha hai.

**Resistance and Support Levels:**

Resistance ki baat karein toh AUD/USD pair 0.6798 ke seven-month high ke region ko target kar sakta hai, jo July 11 ko reach kiya gaya tha. Agar yeh level break hota hai, toh pair 0.6860 level par upper boundary of ascending channel ko test karne ki koshish karega.

Downside par, AUD/USD pair pehle 0.6700 ke aas-paas ascending channel ki lower boundary ko test kar sakta hai, uske baad 9-day EMA jo 0.6686 par hai. Agla support 50-day EMA par hai jo 0.6634 par hai.

Agar 50-day EMA se neeche girta hai, toh yeh bullish bias ko weaken kar sakta hai aur downward pressure increase kar sakta hai, jisse AUD/USD pair throwback support 0.6575 par test kar sakta hai. Agar pair is support se neeche girta hai, toh yeh apni decline ko 0.6470 ke next throwback level tak extend kar sakta hai.

Is hafta ke dauran price mein izafa dekhne ko mila hai, lekin ye abhi tak aik correction hai jo ke general downward trend ke course mein hai. Agar price ne 0.6632 ka main horizontal resistance level break kar diya upar ki taraf, toh yeh clear hai ke price ab us descending line ko test karne ki koshish kar rahi hai jo ke older weekly waves ke tops par based hai. Us horizontal resistance level 0.6782 ke qareeb bhi hai. Yahan tak pohnchnay mein sirf 50 points ka fark hai, lekin mein yahan buy karna recommend nahi karoon ga, kyunki price apni max limit par hai aur shayad is specified resistance tak pohnchnay se pehle hi decline shuru kar de.

CCI indicator upper overheating zone mein dakhil ho chuka hai aur jald hi is se nikalne ke liye tayyar hai. Agar price specified resistance tak pohnchti hai, toh uss waqt sale ki formation ko dekhna chahiye by switching to a lower timeframe. M15 par aap yeh dekh sakte hain ke kis tarah support resistance mein tabdeel hota hai. Lekin abhi filhal sell karna thoda jaldi ho sakta hai kyunki abhi tak koi support nahi hai jo isse justify kare. Halaat aise hain ke price bina support ke bhi gir sakti hai, lekin yeh market ke doosray pairs par bhi depend karta hai kyunki market interconnected hai.

Agar euro dollar aur pound dollar downward correction shuru kartay hain apni long-term growth ke baad, toh yeh pair bhi neeche ja sakta hai, chahe yeh apne intended targets tak na bhi pohnche. Euro dollar pair sabse important hai, jahan yeh jata hai, baqi pairs bhi us ke baad uske raste par chal padte hain. Economic calendar mein bhi filhal koi khaas movement nahi dikhai de rahi, isliye koi abnormal movement expected nahi hai.

Filhal, intezaar karna behtar hai, agar price thoda aur upar jata hai, toh sale ki strategy rebound par behtar ho sakti hai.

Summary:
AUD/USD pair ki recent price action se yeh lagta hai ke downtrend abhi bhi intact hai, aur agar 0.6500 ka support level hold nahi karta toh price mein mazeed girawat aasakti hai. Market ko closely monitor karna zaroori hai, khaaskar upcoming economic data aur central bank ke commentary ko, jo ke pair ke next move ko determine karega. Filhal market dynamics ko dekh kar lagta hai ke AUD/USD ke liye downside ka rasta aasaan hai, lekin thodi bohot short-term volatility bhi expect ki ja sakti hai.