ای AUD/USD کی تجزیہ اور مارکیٹ کے رجحانات

**AUD/USD Pair Ki Halat**
AUD/USD ka jorha apne lambay waqt ke sath 0.68 ke ird gird muqam par mustahkam ho raha hai. Is mustahkmi se nikalna agle rastay ka pata dega—ya to pichle saal ki bulandiyon tak pohanchna ya phir kuch mawaqay ke liye neeche ki taraf waapas jana. Mujhe lagta hai ke ye do options aane wale asraat par mabni hain. Federal Reserve ka achanak 50 points ka kamm hona asal mein pehle hi inhe shaamil kar chuka hai. Ab bazar doosri markazi bankon ke amal par nazar rakhega. Bank of Australia ka faisla mangal ko aana hai. Halankeh unse koi tabdeeli ki tawaqqo nahi hai, lekin chunaav ki surat mein hamesha koi na koi heran kun faisla ho sakta hai (jaise Fed se dekha gaya). Is liye, wo mangal tak waise hi ruk sakte hain, aur phir harqat shuru kar sakte hain. Is dauran, Aussie futures par positions ziada ho rahi hain, jo yeh darust karti hai ke long positions li ja rahi hain. Is liye, humein Aussie ki taqat mein izafa ki tawaqqo hai. Lekin sab kuch ye dekhega ke players kitne azm mein hain. Agar yahan fixation hoti hai to jorha neeche ki taraf waapas ja sakta hai. Jaise ke hamesha, humein apne haath dekhne hain. Is buniyad par, ye currency pair is waqt mustahkam hai, aur is se nikalne ka raasta agle kuch waqt ka pata dega.

Agar hum dekhein, to AUD/USD pair ke liye sab kuch mustahkam hai, is ma'ni mein ke upar ki taraf harkat jaari hai. Humne 0.6825 ke ilaaqay mein nazdeek ke maqasid ko haasil kar liya hai, halankeh ab tak hum is se upar nahi gaye. Lekin neeche ki taraf waapas jaane ki koshishain koi hasil nahi de rahi, kam az kam is liye ke hum 68th figure ke upar band hue hain. Aur yahan yeh bhi zaroori hai ke hum yeh dekhein ke is se bhi upar ke maqasid hain, jo 0.69 ke ilaaqay mein hain. Lekin is ke liye ek acha rollback ab bhi zaroori hai. Aur asal mein, agla hafta bhi kaafi gati kadi ka hoga, kyunke wahan bohot si ahem statistics aani hain, jin mein States ka GDP bhi shamil hai. Aur Bank of Australia ki meeting ka bhi khayal rakhna chahiye. Halankeh main khud ab bhi upar ki taraf dekh raha hoon, lekin ek correction ki zaroorat hai, aur agar hum 0.6675 se neeche gaye, to sirf wahan se kuch naya dekhna padega

### Technical Analysis of AUD/USD Currency Pair

Is waqt, AUD/USD currency pair 0.683713 level ke aas-paas trade kar raha hai, jo ke Monday ke trading session ke shuruati hours mein kuch modest gains ko darshata hai. Yeh movement halka lag sakta hai, lekin isne traders ka dhyan khinch liya hai, khaaskar iski key psychological aur technical levels ke nazdeek hone ki wajah se




0.684300 mark ek ahm psychological level hai jisko traders dhyan se dekh rahe hain. Psychological levels aksar barriers ki tarah kaam karte hain, jo price movement ko support ya resist karte hain, kyunki yeh poore ya round numbers hote hain jin par traders aksar react karte hain. Agar price is 0.684300 resistance level ko cross karne mein kamiyab hoti hai, to yeh AUD/USD pair ke liye zyada bullish momentum ka signal ho sakta hai. Yeh aur buyers ko market mein entry dene par majboor kar sakta hai, jo price ko aur upar le ja sakta hai.

Is level ke upar breakout par asar dalne wale mukhya factors mein se ek Federal Reserve ki monetary policy hai. Agar Federal Reserve interest rates ko cut karne ka faisla karta hai, to yeh US dollar ko kamzor kar sakta hai, jisse Australian dollar ka tulna mein appeal badh jaata hai. Kamzor US dollar aam tor par AUD/USD pair ko boost deta hai, kyunki yeh dono currencies inversely related hain. Is tarah, rate cut is pair ko aur upar le jane ka zaroori fuel de sakta hai.

Downside par, traders ko support levels par nazar rakhni chahiye. 0.6835 level ek critical support zone hai. Agar price is level se neeche girti hai, to yeh bearish sentiment ke shuru hone ka ishara kar sakta hai, jo additional selling pressure trigger kar sakta hai. Is support ke neeche girne par AUD ke liye mazeed losses hone ki sambhavna hai, kyunki sellers price ko neeche push kar sakte hain.

Resistance bhi is waqt ke setup mein ek ahm factor hai. 0.6845 level resistance ki tarah kaam kar raha hai aur yeh bhi ek point hai jisko traders dhyan se dekh rahe hain. Agar price is level ko cross karne mein kaamyab hoti hai, to yeh current upward trend ki tasdeeq kar sakta hai. Lekin agar yeh is level ko cross nahi karti, to iska matlab reversal ya consolidation ho sakta hai ek chhoti range mein.

Akhir mein, AUD/USD is waqt critical levels ke nazdeek trade kar raha hai, jahan support 0.6835 ke aas-paas aur resistance 0.6845 ke aas-paas hai. Traders ko in levels ke ird-gird movements par nazar rakhni chahiye, kyunki kisi bhi taraf break hone par significant market action ka signal mil sakta hai. Iske ilawa, Federal Reserve ke potential rate cut ka asar bhi price action par hoga, jisse kamzor US dollar AUD ke liye mazeed gains ka support de sakta hai.

pair hourly chart par thoda bearish nazar aa raha hai, lekin yeh movement un diligent sellers ki umeedon se door hai. Hum extreme low tak nahi pahunche, isliye ek significant decline ka prediction karna abhi jaldi hai. Jumme ke trading aksar ek key indicator hota hai, jo aane wale predictions ka buniyad tayar karta hai. Kyunki price minimum ke neeche nahi gayi, hum sirf limited drop ke baare mein baat kar sakte hain, jo ke ek full correction nahi, balki ek zigzag pattern hai, jo is situation mein acha fit hota hai. Market jald hi flat phase mein shift ho sakti hai.

Main 0.6679 ke aas-paas long positions ke liye potential dekhta hoon. Halankeh koi significant support levels nazar nahi aate, yahan kuch hafton pehle ek noticeable rebound dekha gaya tha. Is rebound ki taqat modest ho sakti hai, jo shayad 0.6729 tak peak kare, uske baad zigzag ka khatma ho sakta hai. Is waqt buying positions se exit karna behtar hoga.

Aage dekhte hue, 0.68000 level ke aas-paas ek prominent resistance area nazar aa raha hai, jo liquidity zone aur kuch FVG areas se mark kiya gaya hai jo pehle test nahi hue. Yeh region bulls ke liye ek significant hurdle ban sakta hai, jab price is taraf aati hai to potential profit-taking aur sell-side interest dekhne ko mil sakta hai. Lekin, recent sessions mein dekha gaya upward momentum yeh darshata hai ke buyers ke paas is resistance ko challenge karne ki taqat ho sakti hai. Agar price is resistance ko break kar leti hai, to yeh aage ke gains ka rasta khol sakta hai, shayad 0.68500 ke upar higher liquidity levels ko target karte hue.

Neeche ki taraf, 0.67000 ke aas-paas ek key support zone established hai, jahan kai liquidity sweeps hue hain. In liquidity sweeps ki maujoodgi yeh darshati hai ke buyers is level ko defend kar rahe hain, jo potential pullbacks ke khilaf cushion provide karta hai. Agar price is zone ki taraf retrace hoti hai, to yeh dobara buying interest ka samna kar sakti hai, jo isse ek significant support level banata hai.

Summarize karte hue, AUD/USD clear bullish momentum dikhata hai jab key liquidity gaps fill hoti hain aur support zones se reverse hota hai. 0.68000 level agla critical resistance hai, jiska break hone par aage ke upside ki sambhavna hai. Iske baraks, agar price 0.67000 ya isse neeche pullback hoti hai, to yeh buying interest ka samna karegi, agar market conditions favorable rahe. Pair ka overall structure yeh darshata hai ke jab tak key support levels hold hote ha

pareshani ka sabab ban sakta hai. Full-time employment mein mazid izafa ho sakta hai jo RBA ko New Zealand ki tarah poori tarah se easing mood mein jane se rok sakta hai, aur shayad ye Waqt September mein Fed ke liye bhi dekhne ko milay, jaise ke ING ke FX strategist Chris Turner ne kaha. "Iska matlab yeh hai ke Australian Dollar (AUD) cross pairs mein acha perform karega. August ke shuru mein AUD/NZD ke girne ka matlab hai ke investors ne is cross ko upar trade karne ki umeed rakhi thi, magar yen-triggered deleveraging ne isko unwind kar diya. Ab hum dekh sakte hain ke yeh cross mid-July ke 1.1150 highs ko phir se test kare. Magar yeh bhi ho sakta hai ke China ki macro weakness AUD ko yahan rokh rahi ho. Overall, ek mahine ka target 0.68 hai AUD/USD ke liye. **AUD/USD** Budh ke din, Australian dollar ne 0.6640 ka target level haasil kar liya, phir wahan se (MACD line aur 61.8% Fibonacci level se) neeche chala gaya, aur aaj subah 0.6570 ke support ko chhoo gaya. Yeh izafa Australia mein employment data ke release hone ke wajah se hua—Australia mein July mein 58,200 jobs created hui, jab ke forecast 20,200 thi, aur participation rate 66.9% se barh kar 67.1% hogayi, jiski wajah se ultimately unemployment 4.1% se barh kar 4.2% hogayi. Magar investors ne in data ko overall positive samjha. Iske ilawa, Japan ka GDP dusre quarter mein 3.1% barh gaya, jab ke umeed 2.1% ki thi Price ko 0.6640 ke strong resistance ko overcome karna hoga ziata substantial movement ke liye, kam az kam 0.6680 ka target level haasil karne ke liye. Jab ke raw materials abhi bhi gir rahe hain, yeh sirf tab mumkin hai jab US dollar globally weak ho jaye. Filhaal, yeh ek neutral position mein hai 4-hour chart mein, price balance line (red moving average) ke upar hai, aur Marlin oscillator wapas growth territory mein chala gaya hai. Nateeja tan, aussie abhi neutral range mein hai 0.6570-0.6640 ke darmiyan. Is range ke beyond breakout hi uske aage ka movement tay kar

AUD/USD ka jorha apne lambay waqt ke sath 0.68 ke ird gird muqam par mustahkam ho raha hai. Is mustahkmi se nikalna agle rastay ka pata dega—ya to pichle saal ki bulandiyon tak pohanchna ya phir kuch mawaqay ke liye neeche ki taraf waapas jana. Mujhe lagta hai ke ye do options aane wale asraat par mabni hain. Federal Reserve ka achanak 50 points ka kamm hona asal mein pehle hi inhe shaamil kar chuka hai. Ab bazar doosri markazi bankon ke amal par nazar rakhega. Bank of Australia ka faisla mangal ko aana hai. Halankeh unse koi tabdeeli ki tawaqqo nahi hai, lekin chunaav ki surat mein hamesha koi na koi heran kun faisla ho sakta hai (jaise Fed se dekha gaya). Is liye, wo mangal tak waise hi ruk sakte hain, aur phir harqat shuru kar sakte hain. Is dauran, Aussie futures par positions ziada ho rahi hain, jo yeh darust karti hai ke long positions li ja rahi hain. Is liye, humein Aussie ki taqat mein izafa ki tawaqqo hai. Lekin sab kuch ye dekhega ke players kitne azm mein hain. Agar yahan fixation hoti hai to jorha neeche ki taraf waapas ja sakta hai. Jaise ke hamesha, humein apne haath dekhne hain. Is buniyad par, ye currency pair is waqt mustahkam hai, aur is se nikalne ka raasta agle kuch waqt ka pata dega.

Agar hum dekhein, to AUD/USD pair ke liye sab kuch mustahkam hai, is ma'ni mein ke upar ki taraf harkat jaari hai. Humne 0.6825 ke ilaaqay mein nazdeek ke maqasid ko haasil kar liya hai, halankeh ab tak hum is se upar nahi gaye. Lekin neeche ki taraf waapas jaane ki koshishain koi hasil nahi de rahi, kam az kam is liye ke hum 68th figure ke upar band hue hain. Aur yahan yeh bhi zaroori hai ke hum yeh dekhein ke is se bhi upar ke maqasid hain, jo 0.69 ke ilaaqay mein hain. Lekin is ke liye ek acha rollback ab bhi zaroori hai. Aur asal mein, agla hafta bhi kaafi gati kadi ka hoga, kyunke wahan bohot si ahem statistics aani hain, jin mein States ka GDP bhi shamil hai. Aur Bank of Australia ki meeting ka bhi khayal rakhna chahiye. Halankeh main khud ab bhi upar ki taraf dekh raha hoon, lekin ek correction ki zaroorat hai, aur agar hum 0.6675 se neeche gaye, to sirf wahan se kuch naya dekhna padega

Sarmayakaar ab Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell ke haaliye comments aur is hafte mazeed American economic reports ko dekh rahe hain taake mazeed rahnumayi hasil ho sake. Isi dauran, data ne ishara diya ke guzishta hafta Asia mein sone ki physical demand mein kami aayi jabke bartan ki unchi qeematon ne bazar mein ehtiyaat baratne ko badhawa diya. Sone ke bazaar ko mutasir karne wale asraat ke mutabiq... dollar ki qeemat safe haven demand ki buniyad par barh rahi hai. Electronic trading platforms ke mutabiq... dollar ki qeemat pehle 104.1 se neeche girne ke baad pehle martaba 104.2 tak barh gayi, jo ke June 3 ke baad se sabse kam satah tha. Weekend par Trump par hamlay ne keemati maaloomat ke mutabiq unke presidential election jeetne ke chances ko barhawa diya, jisne dollar ko upar dhakel diya.Trump ki policies, jaise ke sakht trade stance, lax regulations, aur proposed tax cuts, inflation ko barhawa dene ka imkaan hai. Isi dauran, traders ne September mein Federal Reserve ke taraf se US interest rates mein cut hone par 94% probability ke sath bet lagana jari rakha, jabke June ki masarf ki qeematein umeed se kam thi. Dollar board par mazid mazboot ho gaya, magar traders yen mein mazeed mumkina intervention ke bare mein hooshyar rahe. Dusri taraf, US 10-year Treasury bond yields Trump ke hamlay ki wajah se barh gayi. Trading ke mutabiq, 10-year US Treasury bond yields 4.2% se zyada barh gayi Monday ko, chaar mahine ke sabse kam satah se thori ubhaar lene ke baad, jabke US presidential candidate Donald Trump par hamlay ne unke November mein White House wapas jeetne ke chances ko barhawa diya. Markets ne Trump ki jeet ko Treasury bond yields ke liye bullish samjha kyunke unki policies ko tax cuts, immigration policy tightening aur

USD currency pair ne is haftay ka aghaz kamzori ke saath kiya hai, jahan Monday subah ke Asian session mein yeh pair 0.6792 ke qareeb trade kar raha hai. Yeh girawat mukhtalif aham asraat ka nateeja hai, jo ke chand central bank figures ke bayanat aur haali economic data se mutasir hain. Federal Reserve ke Chair Jerome Powell ke haali bayan ne market sentiment par kafi asar dala hai. Powell ke bayanat ne ishara diya hai ke US mein aane walay arsay mein bhi unchi interest rates barqarar reh sakti hain, kyunki Fed mehngai ko apne target ki taraf le jaane mein ehtiyaat kar raha hai. Un ke bayanat ne US dollar ko mazid mazboot kiya hai, kyunki unchi rates investors ko dollar mein invest karne ki taraf khench rahi hain. Dusri taraf, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) ka rukh bhi AUD/USD ki dynamics mein aham kirdar ada kar raha hai. RBA ke haali bayanat pehlay mahino ke muqablay mein zyada dovish hain. RBA ki ehtiyaat baratne wali approach, jo ke mulki economic challenges aur dheemi inflationary pressures se mutasir hai, Fed ki zyada aggressive monetary policy se bilkul mukhtalif hai. Is wajah se Australian dollar par downward pressure hai, jo AUD/USD pair ki kamzori ko aur barha raha hai. In central bank signals ke milaap ne Australian dollar ke liye ek challenging environment bana diya hai. Investors apni positions ko adjust kar rahe hain, jab ke Fed aur RBA ke monetary policy ke trajectories mein farq hai. Yeh farq aam tor par US dollar ko mazid mazboot aur Australian dollar ko kamzor banata hai, jo ke AUD/USD exchange rate ke neeche aane mein zahir ho raha hai. Iske ilawa, broader market conditions aur risk sentiment bhi currency movements ko shape karte hain. Global economic outlook, geopolitical developments, aur commodity prices mein utar charhao bhi AUD/USD pair ko mutasir kar sakte hain. Misal ke taur par, commodity prices, khas tor par Australia ke key exports jaise ke iron ore, Australian dollar ki performance par asar dal

AUD/USD ka price summary yeh hai ke hum is currency pair ki pricing movement ka jaiza le rahe hain. Meri tajweez yeh hai ke pehle price mein thodi si izafa hoga, lekin uske baad ghatne ka silsila shuru ho jayega. Neeche diye gaye chart mein mujhe yeh dikhai deta hai ke AUD/USD pair kis tarah se behave karega. Mujhe lagta hai ke pair agay barhta rahega aur 14.5% Fibonacci retracement level tak pahunchega, phir iske baad reversal hoga aur ghatne ka silsila jari rahega. Yeh pair pehle se 38.1% Fibonacci support level se rebound kar chuka hai, aur price MA200 se door nikal rahi hai. Filhal hum bearish wave se pullback phase mein hain. Jabke mein mazeed izafe ki umeed rakhta hoon, yeh zaroori hai ke 14.5% level kuch challenges paida kar sakta hai. Mujhe lagta hai ke US dollar baqi currencies ke muqablay mein kamzor hoga, lekin is surat mein mein aik mazid izafe ki umeed karta hoon. Yeh mumkinat abhi puri tarah se clear nahi hain, lekin is potential rise par ghor karna zaroori hai.

Iss waqt currency pair thodi si niche ki taraf ja rahi hai, aur Awesome Oscillator (AO) ne weak sell signal diya hai. Pair pichle din ki range mein trade kar raha hai, jo ke thodi si tabdeeli ka izhar karta hai. Lekin in signals se yeh pata chalta hai ke choti si decline hone ki umeed hai, uske baad reversal ho sakta hai. Price ki umeed hai ke support level 0.6689 tak giregi, phir wapas resistance level 0.6734 ki taraf rebound karegi. H4 chart par pair 0.67317 ki high se reverse ho chuki hai aur bearish trend dikhayi de raha hai. Price abhi 0.67035 par middle Bollinger Band ke upar hai, aur bands abhi bhi upar ki taraf hain. Jab market Monday ko khulegi, to niche ki taraf ka trend jaari rehne ki umeed hai, shayad 423.5% Fibonacci level 0.66571 tak pahunche.

Recent analysis mein yeh bhi dekha gaya ke University of Michigan ka data release hua jisme consumer inflation expectations index zyada tha, aur consumer sentiment index bhi barh gaya. Is data ke baad, AUD/USD pair aur doosre US dollar se related pairs ne niche ki taraf jati hui trend dekhi, aur price ne ek support level ko break kiya. Yeh text yeh batata hai ke aik significant downward correction hua hai, lekin agar price mazid strong hoti hai to growth dobara shuru ho sakti hai. Overall analysis yeh suggest karti hai ke bearish correction shayad khatam ho chuki hai, jo ke currency pair ke liye upward movement ki potential ko kholti hai.

AUD/USD ka jorha apne lambay waqt ke sath 0.68 ke ird gird muqam par mustahkam ho raha hai. Is mustahkmi se nikalna agle rastay ka pata dega—ya to pichle saal ki bulandiyon tak pohanchna ya phir kuch mawaqay ke liye neeche ki taraf waapas jana. Mujhe lagta hai ke ye do options aane wale asraat par mabni hain. Federal Reserve ka achanak 50 points ka kamm hona asal mein pehle hi inhe shaamil kar chuka hai. Ab bazar doosri markazi bankon ke amal par nazar rakhega. Bank of Australia ka faisla mangal ko aana hai. Halankeh unse koi tabdeeli ki tawaqqo nahi hai, lekin chunaav ki surat mein hamesha koi na koi heran kun faisla ho sakta hai (jaise Fed se dekha gaya). Is liye, wo mangal tak waise hi ruk sakte hain, aur phir harqat shuru kar sakte hain. Is dauran, Aussie futures par positions ziada ho rahi hain, jo yeh darust karti hai ke long positions li ja rahi hain. Is liye, humein Aussie ki taqat mein izafa ki tawaqqo hai. Lekin sab kuch ye dekhega ke players kitne azm mein hain. Agar yahan fixation hoti hai to jorha neeche ki taraf waapas ja sakta hai. Jaise ke hamesha, humein apne haath dekhne hain. Is buniyad par, ye currency pair is waqt mustahkam hai, aur is se nikalne ka raasta agle kuch waqt ka pata dega.

Agar hum dekhein, to AUD/USD pair ke liye sab kuch mustahkam hai, is ma'ni mein ke upar ki taraf harkat jaari hai. Humne 0.6825 ke ilaaqay mein nazdeek ke maqasid ko haasil kar liya hai, halankeh ab tak hum is se upar nahi gaye. Lekin neeche ki taraf waapas jaane ki koshishain koi hasil nahi de rahi, kam az kam is liye ke hum 68th figure ke upar band hue hain. Aur yahan yeh bhi zaroori hai ke hum yeh dekhein ke is se bhi upar ke maqasid hain, jo 0.69 ke ilaaqay mein hain. Lekin is ke liye ek acha rollback ab bhi zaroori hai. Aur asal mein, agla hafta bhi kaafi gati kadi ka hoga, kyunke wahan bohot si ahem statistics aani hain, jin mein States ka GDP bhi shamil hai. Aur Bank of Australia ki meeting ka bhi khayal rakhna chahiye. Halankeh main khud ab bhi upar ki taraf dekh raha hoon, lekin ek correction ki zaroorat hai, aur agar hum 0.6675 se neeche gaye, to sirf wahan se kuch naya dekhna padegaClick image for larger version

AUD/USD ka jo jor hai, wo ek mustahkam upar ki taraf barh rahi hai, jo ke Thursday ko 2024 ka naya bulandi 0.6839 tak pahuncha. Jabke 0.6870 tak pohanchne se pehle kuch zyada upar ka faasla nahi hai, lekin choti muddat ka rujhan bullish hai, jo ye darshata hai ke aage aur faida hone ke imkanat hain. Lekin, price aur RSI momentum indicator ke darmiyan ek maamooli bearish divergence ye darshata hai ke kuch andarooni kamzori hai. Iska matlab ye hai ke ek pullback ho sakta hai, jiske liye support levels 0.6800 aur 0.6736 hain. Bearish divergence ke bawajood, AUD/USD ka jor 11 September se choti muddat mein upar ki taraf hai. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is saal interest rates ko kam karne ki umeed kar raha hai, lekin achhi Australian employment data ki wajah se market ki umeedain kuch kam ho gayi hain, jo Australian dollar (AUD) ko Asia-Pacific shetra mein mazboot rakhti hai. August ke liye Australian Employment report ke mutabiq, employers ne 47.5K naye employees ko bharti kiya, jo pehle wale 48.9K ke barabar hai, jo ke 58.2K se neeche ki taraf revise kiya gaya tha. Ye figure 25K ke andazay se zyada hai.

"Trend is your friend" ka technical analysis ka qaidah yeh darshata hai ke upar ka rujhan jari rehne ke liye mumkin hai. Agar 0.6839 ke upar break hota hai, to yeh uptrend ki tasdeeq karega, jiska maqsad 0.6870 level hai. Is jor ne 200-day SMA par 0.6620 par ahm support dhoondh liya hai, jo medium-term bullish structure ko mazbooti deta hai. Daily chart par technical oscillators mixed signals de rahe hain, jahan Stochastic ek bearish crossover bana raha hai aur RSI bullish momentum ko barqarar rakhta hai. Agar bullish pressure aur barh jata hai, to 0.6870-0.6900 resistance area ka test ho sakta hai. Kul mila kar, AUD/USD April se ek uptrend mein hai, aur sirf ascending trend line ke neeche break hone se maujooda nazariya tabdeel hoga. Magar, traders ko RSI mein bearish divergence ki wajah se pullback ke imkanat ke liye ehtiyaat baratni chahiye.

Mudaafiyati jorh par nazar rakhte hue, ek currency jorh mein khud raha hai, jo kuch dinon se musalsal kharidari dekh raha hai. Jumeraat ko, yeh ek naya teen hafte ka unchaai hasil karte hue, ibtedai Europi session mein 0.6801 ki dar par trading kar raha tha jab bazar pichle Jumeraat ko band hua. Yeh upar ki taraf ka hilaav bullish jazbaat ka izhar karta hai, jahan traderein 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) ke critical resistance level ko paar karne ke liye purjosh hain.

Geopolitical Tensions aur Safe-Haven Demand:

Is positive trend ke darmiyan, geopolitical tensions barh rahi hain. Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant ne haal hi mein US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin ko Iran ki fauji taayunaat ke bare mein agah kiya, jo ke Israel par ek bara hamla karne ki tayyari ka izhar karti hai. Axios ke reporter Barak Ravid ke mutabiq, yeh maloomat shetra mein bechaini ko barha sakti hai, jo ke US dollar ke liye safe-haven demand ko izafa kar sakta hai. Aise developments AUD/USD jorh par asar daal sakte hain, kyunke investoren aksar pareshani ke waqt Greenback mein refuge talash karte hain.

RBA se Inflation ke Aasaar:

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) inflation ke khatru ke baray mein waqif hai. Governor Michele Bullock ne zordaar ishara diya hai ke agar inflation ka pressure barqarar raha to central bank behteri ke liye shiddat se interest rates barhane ke liye tayaar hai. Yeh warning RBA ke taraf se 4.35% par rates ko chhathe musalsal dafa tak steady rakne ke faislay ke baad aayi hai. Aise bayan market ko ye signal dete hain ke RBA inflation ko control karne ke liye committed hai, jo ke Australian dollar ki performance ko nazar mein rakh sakta hai.

Technical Analysis: Resistance Levels

Filhal, yeh jorh foran resistance par hai jo ke 0.6850 ka throwback level hai. Agar yeh level par kamiyabi se breakout hota hai, to yeh bullish outlook ko mazid taqat de sakta hai, jo ke jorh ko 0.6960 ke nazdeek upar ke had tak le ja sakta hai. Agar yeh hilaav jari raha, to traders agle significant resistance level 0.7000 par nazar rakhne ke liye tayyar honge.

Jumeraat ki bazar band hone par, spot price 0.6810 ke aas-paas trading kar raha tha. Rozana chart ka jaiza lene se maloom hota hai ke yeh jorh ek wazeh taur par tay ki gayi ascending channel ke andar upar ki taraf ja raha hai, jo ke ek mazid behtar bullish trend ki nishani hai. Iske ilawa, 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) 50 ke mark ko paar kar chuka hai, jo ke bullish momentum ko mazid taqat deta hai aur currency pair ke liye upar ki taraf ka jari rehne ka potential darust karta hai.

AUD/USD currency pair ka haal ka tajziya hourly chart par thoda bearish trend dikhata hai, lekin girawat utni aham nahi hai jitni sellers ne ummed ki thi. Price abhi tak extreme low tak nahi pahuncha, isliye yeh kehna abhi jaldi hai ke koi badi girawat aayegi. Friday ki trading aksar aane wale predictions ke liye aham insights faraham karti hai. Kyunki price ne minimum ke neeche nahi gaya, is liye guftagu sirf ek moderate girawat tak mehsoor hai, jo ke ek zigzag pattern ki tarah hai na ke poori correction. Market jald hi ek flat phase mein dakhil ho sakta hai.

0.6679 ke aas-paas long positions ke liye potential hai, kyunki is area mein kuch hafte pehle aik noticeable rebound dekha gaya tha, lekin is rebound ki shiddat mehsoos ki ja rahi hai ke yeh modest hogi, aur iske baad peak 0.6729 par hone ki umeed hai, jiske baad zigzag khatam hona chahiye. Is marahil par buying positions se nikalna behtar hoga. Aage dekhte hue, 0.68000 ke level ke paas ek prominent area of resistance nazar aa raha hai, jo ke liquidity zone aur kuch FVG areas se bharpoor hai jo pehle test nahi hui hain.

AUD/USD pair ek aham rukawat ka samna kar raha hai, kyunki jab price ek khaas level ke nazdeek pahunchega, to profit-taking aur sell-side interest ka imkaan hai. Lekin haal ka upward momentum yeh darshata hai ke buyers ke paas is resistance ko challenge karne ki taqat ho sakti hai. Agar price is rukawat ko todta hai, to yeh aage ke liye gains ka darwaza khol sakta hai, shayad 0.68500 ke upar ke liquidity levels ko target karte hue.

Neeche ki taraf, 0.67000 ke aas-paas ka area ek key support zone ke tor par established hai, jahan buyers is level ki hifazat kar rahe hain, jo potential pullbacks ke khilaf cushion faraham karta hai. Agar price is zone par wapas aata hai, to yeh naye buying interest ka samna kar sakta hai, iski ahmiyat ko mazid barhata hai.

Overall, AUD/USD mein wazeh bullish momentum nazar aa raha hai, aur 0.68000 level agla critical resistance hai. Is level ke upar ka break aage ke liye upside ki taraf le ja sakta hai, jabke agar koi pullbacks 0.67000 ya usse neeche hote hain, to inka bhi buying interest ka samna ho sakta hai, jab tak market conditions favorable rahen.

AUD/USD ki Request Outlook:

Sab ko subha bakhair aur mubarakbaad!

Tareekh mein, US FOMC ke member Harker ka taqreer AUD/USD ke merchandisers ke liye madadgar nahi raha. Is wajah se, request 0.6800 ke zone tak ruk gaya. Lekin aakhri ghanton mein merchandisers ke haq mein halaat behtar hue jab yeh is border tak pahunche. Yeh bhi dekha gaya hai ke US Dollar aane wale dinon mein kuch stability dhoond sakta hai.

Yeh hafte kaafi mushkil raha, lekin naye profitable data ke release aur financial policy mein chhote mote tabdeeliyon se US Dollar ko zaroori support mil sakta hai. Request ke actors in areas par nazar rakhenge, jaisa ke inflation, retail sales, aur consumer confidence. Agar in areas mein positive surprises milte hain, toh yeh US economy par aitmaad ko dobara barhane mein madadgar sabit ho sakta hai aur Dollar ko zaroori boost de sakta hai.

Trading points ke liye, main AUD/USD par ek buy order rakhunga jiska short target 0.6845 hai, Monday ke liye. Halankeh, Federal Reserve is request ke rukh ko tay karne mein ek central role ada karega. Fed ke ongoing efforts jo inflation ko manage karne aur labor market mein stability barqarar rakhne ke liye hain, woh aane wale waqt mein US Dollar ki line tay karne mein critical rahenge. Lekin, yeh Fed ko ek zyada hawkish stance lene par bhi majboor kar sakta hai.

AUD/USD ki Outlook:

Agar data in areas mein behtar honay ki nishaniyan dikhata hai, toh yeh Dollar ko support de sakta hai. Lekin agar economic outlook ab bhi uncertain raha, toh Dollar ko challenges ka samna karna par sakta hai. Umeed hai ke AUD/USD ki request buyers ke liye madadgar sabit hogi aur uptrend ka rukh barqarar rahega.

Aakhri hafte US Dollar ke liye kaafi mushkil raha, kyunki kai economic data releases aur policy statements ne currency par bhari asar dala. Kuch positive developments jaise ke Philly Fed Manufacturing Index aur severance claims mein kami dekhi gayi, lekin yeh broader negative sentiment ko neutralize karne ke liye kaafi nahi the.

Doosri currencies, jaise euro, British pound, aur Japanese yen, Dollar ki kamzori se faida uthate rahe, jo un logon ke liye mauqay faraham karta hai jo apne losses recover karna chahte hain.

Aage dekhte hue, aanay wale economic reports aur financial policy mein tabdeeliyan US Dollar ko dobara stabilize karne mein madadgar sabit ho sakti hain.

Khush rahiye aur mehfooz rahiye!

AUD/USD Currency Pair Analysis
AUD/USD currency pair mein halki gains dekhne ko mil rahi hain, jo ke Monday ke Asian session ke aghaz mein 0.6713 ke ird-gird trade kar rahi hai. Kai factors hain jo is movement ko asar andaz kar rahe hain. Ek ahem event upcoming FOMC meeting hai, jo do din tak chalegi aur Wednesday ko ek rate cut ke saath khatam hone ki umeed hai. Agar U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut karti hai, toh U.S. dollar kamzor ho sakta hai, jo Australian dollar ke liye support provide karega. Jab U.S. mein interest rates kam hote hain, toh U.S. dollar kam attractive ho jata hai, jis se Australian dollar jese currencies zyada appealing lagti hain.

Doosra ahem asar China se aane wala economic data hai, jo ke Australia ka sabse bara trading partner hai. Hali mein Chinese Retail Sales aur Industrial Production figures umeed se kam aaye hain. Yeh kamzor numbers yeh dikhate hain ke China ki economy slow ho rahi hai. Jab China ki economy muskilat ka shikar hoti hai, toh iska aksar Australia ki economy par bura asar hota hai, kyun ke Australia China ko kaafi sara saman export karta hai, jese iron ore waghera. China ke in kamzor numbers ke bawajood, Australian dollar halki gains ko barqarar rakhnay mein kamiyab raha hai. Lekin agar China ki economic situation mazeed kharab hoti hai, toh Australian dollar par zyada pressure aane ka imkaan hai.

Technical Analysis

Technical standpoint se dekha jaye toh AUD/USD is waqt 0.6713 ke qareeb trade kar rahi hai, aur Monday ki trading ke aghaz mein halki gains dikhayi de rahi hain. 0.6700 ka mark ek psychological level lagta hai jise traders ghaur se dekh rahe hain. Agar price is level se ooper rehti hai, toh market isay strength ka signal samajh sakti hai. Dusri taraf, agar yeh pair 0.6700 ke neeche girti hai, toh yeh mazeed weakness ka signal ho sakta hai.

Agar technical indicators ka tajziya kiya jaye, toh AUD/USD pair consolidating stage mein hai, yani price ek range ke andar sideways move kar rahi hai. Iska matlab yeh hai ke traders zyada wazehiyat ka intezar kar rahe hain, jo ke shayad FOMC meeting ke baad milay. Agar Federal Reserve rate cut karti hai, toh AUD/USD mein izafa dekha ja sakta hai jab U.S. dollar kamzor hoga. Magar traders ko support aur resistance levels par bhi nazar rakhni chahiye. Support qareeb 0.6685 ke paas hai, aur agar price is level se neeche jati hai, toh zyada selling trigger ho sakti hai. Ooper ki taraf, resistance 0.6745 par hai, aur agar yeh pair is level se ooper jati hai, toh mazeed gains ka raasta khul sakta hai.

Kul mila kar, fundamentals thore mixed hain—China ke kamzor data aur U.S. rate cut ke expected hone ke bawajood—technical picture yeh dikhati hai ke AUD/USD dono directions mein move kar sakti hai, jo bhi halat agle dino mein samne aati hain. Traders ko ehtiyaat se kaam lena chahiye aur ahem events aur price levels par nazar rakhni chahiye, jo agle move ke hawalay se clues de sakti hain

AUD/USD pair ne aik mustaqil upward trajectory dekha, aur Thursday ko 2024 ka naya high 0.6839 tak pohanch gaya. Halankeh long-term high 0.6870 ke qareeb limited upside hai, short-term trend ab bhi bullish hai, jo mazeed gains ke imkanat ko darsha raha hai. Magar price aur RSI momentum indicator ke darmiyan ek moderate bearish divergence bhi hai, jo underlying weakness ka ishara de raha hai. Yeh batata hai ke ek pullback ho sakta hai, jismeh support levels 0.6800 aur 0.6736 par hain.

Is bearish divergence ke bawajood, AUD/USD pair ne 11 September se short-term uptrend ko barqarar rakha hai. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) se is saal interest rates ko kam karne ki tawaqo hai, magar Australian employment data ke positive hone se market ki expectations mein kami aa rahi hai. Australian Employment report ke mutabiq August mein employers ne 47.5K naye employees ko hire kiya, jo ke pehle wale 48.9K ke barabar tha (jo ke revise karke 58.2K se neeche kiya gaya tha). Yeh shumarat predictions se zyada tha, jo ke 25K tha.

Technical analysis ka principle "the trend is your friend" yeh suggest karta hai ke upward trend ka barqarar rehna mumkin hai. Agar price 0.6839 ke upar break karta hai, toh yeh uptrend ko confirm karega, aur next target 0.6870 hoga. Pair ne 200-day SMA 0.6620 par ek important support paaya hai, jo medium-term bullish structure ko reinforce karta hai. Daily chart par technical oscillators mixed signals de rahe hain, jismeh Stochastic ek bearish crossover bana raha hai, jabke RSI bullish momentum ko maintain kar raha hai. Agar bullish pressure barhta hai, toh 0.6870-0.6900 resistance area ka test dekhne ko mil sakta hai.

Kul mila kar, AUD/USD April se ek uptrend mein hai, aur sirf ascending trend line ke neeche break karne par yeh current outlook change hoga. Magar traders ko RSI mein bearish divergence ke sabab ek pullback ke imkanat par nazar rakhni chahiye.