ای aud/usd کی تجزیہ اور مارکیٹ کے رجحانات

Thursday ko trading conditions mein buyers ne kafi achi tarah se price ko reverse kiya. Asian session mein price kam ho kar Thursday ke daily open 0.6765 se support level 0.6748 tak chali gayi, jo ke EMA 200 H1 line ke upar thi. Jab price ne support ko hit kiya to isay reject kar diya gaya, jis se price wapas se upar chali gayi aur mazid strong hui. Price ne Thursday ke daily open ko break kar ke rise kiya aur resistance 0.6820 ke aas paas pohanchi. H1 chart pe EMA 12 aur EMA 36 ke darmiyan ek upside cross banne ka signal mil raha hai. Jab price ne resistance se upar jaane ki koshish ki, to unfortunately buyer power kamzor pad gayi aur seller pressure 0.6842 par dekhne ko mila. Price ne decline karna start kiya aur ek bearish candle ne 0.6820 ke region ko successfully cross kiya. Lekin EMA 36 H1 ab bhi buyers ko support de rahi hai, jisse price thoda upar chali gayi aur 0.6820 ke aas paas consolidation nazar ayi. Bullish conditions ke tehat, market ne 0.6816 par close kiya. Jab ke Friday ki trading mein sellers price ko dubara neeche layane ki koshish kar rahe hain, buyers ka defense ab tak kafi strong hai jo ke seller pressure ko resist kar raha hai. Price upper aur lower resistance ke darmiyan fluctuate kar rahi hai, lekin movements ab narrow hoti ja rahi hain.
Agar price 0.6820 ke resistance ko break nahi kar pati aur neeche 0.6752 tak ya phir EMA 12 daily line ke aas paas chali jati hai, to ek corrective move dekhne ko mil sakta hai. Agar buyers price ko dobara se upar layane mein kaamyaab ho jate hain aur 0.6820 ke resistance level ko break kar dete hain, to price ke rally karne ka chance hai. Agar yeh crucial buying area, jo ke 0.6827 aur 0.6874 ke darmiyan hai, cross ho jaye to positive range 0.7321 tak extend ho sakti hai. Is situation mein buy option ko hold karna worthwhile ho sakta hai.

AUD/USD pair ne Friday ke European session ke dauran 0.6800 ke round-figure support ke upar apna position barqarar rakha. Australian dollar ka yeh asset broadly flat raha, jabke Federal Reserve ke November policy meeting mein dobara se interest rates ko sharply cut karne ki speclations barh rahi hain. Federal Reserve ne Wednesday ko 50 basis point ka rate cut announce kiya, jis se rates 4.75%-5.00% tak aa gayi hain. Yeh clear signal hai ke Fed ka focus labor market conditions ko mazid bigarne se rokne par hai.

Interest rate guidance ke lehaz se, Fed ke dot chart se yeh pata chalta hai ke policymakers expect kar rahe hain ke federal funds rate 2024 ke akhir tak 4.4% tak barh jayega, jo yeh suggest karta hai ke central bank kam az kam 25 basis point ka rate cut karega. Lekin traders ko umeed hai ke November aur December ke remaining do policy meetings mein 75 basis point ke interest rate cuts honge, jisme se ek rate decision 50 basis points ka cut hoga. November mein 50 basis points ka interest rate cut hone ka imkaan 43% hai, jo ke Thursday ko 37% tha, CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq.



Historically, China ke economic developments ka Australian dollar par significant asar hota hai, kyunke dono countries close trading partners hain. Aaj subah AUD/USD pair ne 0.6838 ka nine-month high touch kiya, aur chauthi consecutive green candle form hui. Pair ko 200-day SMA ke pass, 0.6620 par ek aham support mila, jo ke medium-term bullish structure ko extend kar raha hai.

Technical oscillators kuch mixed signals de rahe hain daily chart par. Stochastic ne bearish crossover banaya hai %K aur %D lines ke darmiyan overbought zone mein, lekin RSI apni bullish momentum ko 50 ke area ke upar barqarar rakha hai. Mazid upward pressure 0.6870-0.6900 resistance zone ke test ki raah bana sakta hai, jo ke December 2023 aur June 2023 ke highs ko represent karta hai.

Meri raye mein, agar price resistance ko paar nahi kar pati, toh yeh wapas daily support area ki taraf jaayegi jo ke 0.6763x ke price range mein hai. Halankeh price dobara se dominant hote hue upar barh gayi, magar apni highest resistance tak nahi pohonchi. Magar is cheez ko samajhna zaroori hai ke aaj ke liye price ka izafa zyada dominant ho sakta hai. Is waqt, sabse behthreen approach yeh hai ke hum intezar karein ke price resistance ko break kare aur agli resistance tak 0.6863x ke price par pohonche, ya phir reject ho kar neeche support 0.6712x ke aas paas gir jaaye. Iss current position mein, upar jaane ka rujhan abhi bhi hai, lekin neeche jaane ka bhi equal chance hai. Meri raye mein, AUD/USD pair ke liye aaj ka mood yeh hai ke agar resistance break ho jaaye toh buy karein, aur agar support break ho jaaye toh sell karein. Yeh last candlestick ke doji form par base karta hai, jo ke buyers aur sellers ke darmiyan balance ko show karta hai. Abhi, AUD/USD pair daily opening level par trade kar raha hai jo ke balance mein lag raha hai. Aage ke price movements ko analyze karne ke liye, hum M30 time frame par nazar daal sakte hain. Yahan par do minor support aur resistance areas hain, ek 0.6787x price ke aas paas upar ki had par aur doosra 0.6778x price ke aas paas neeche ki had par. Yeh do areas aane wale time mein achi entry opportunities de sakti hain. AUD/USD currency pair ki movement abhi bhi bullish movements ke zair e tarsarf rehne ki poori guzarish hai aur is baat ka imkaan hai ke yeh aagey bhi barh sakti hai. Filhaal mein khud bhi intizaar aur talaash kar raha hoon ke bullish potential ke sath BUY setup banaye jo ke level 0.6855 ke range tak ja sake. Agar yeh target ko haasil karne mein kamyaab hoti hai toh yeh baqiyaat level ki taraf barhne mein mazeed pur-itminan hogi. Lekin agar yeh nakam hoti hai, toh umeed ki jaa sakti hai ke yeh wapas se neeche gir jaye gi. AUD/USD currency pair ki market trend jo ke mazi chand dino se bullish condition mein thi, toh buyers se yeh umeed hai ke unke paas price ko barhane ka mazeed potential ho sakta hai, lekin abhi market ke price downward correction ke sath market ki conditions Ko reverse karne ki koshish kar rahi hai, kyun ke market aaj subah se khuli hai. Relative Strength Index indicator ki line abhi bhi level 50 se upar aram se chal rahi hai jo ke bullish trend ki nishani hai. Candlestick ki position abhi bhi 0.6780 ke price level ke upar hai jo ke upward moving market ki taraf ishara kar rahi hai. Is haftay ke price movement mein momentum ko dekhte hue jo ke zyada taur par bullish direction mein move kar raha tha, meri analysis ke mutabiq yeh mumkin hai ke price dobara se bullish trend par aajaye jab tak ke market kal subah band na ho

USD/CAD 1.3555 par trade kar raha hai, 0.08% ka girawat ke sath. Bank of Canada (BoC) will announce rate decision soon. BoC se expect kiya ja raha hai ke yeh 25 basis points se rates cut karega, jo ke pehli baar nahi, balki teesri baar ho raha hai, aur yeh kisi bhi major central bank ka sabse zyada rate cut hai. BoC ki umeed hai ke yeh saal ke baqi waqt aur 2025 tak rates cut karte rahenge, taake Canada ki sluggish economy ko support mil sake. Federal Reserve bhi is mahine aur shayad is saal ke baad rate cuts ki umeed hai, jo BoC ke liye aasan banata hai rates cut karna bina Fed se zyada divergence ke. Canadian dollar ne August mein 2.2% gain kiya hai greenback ke muqable mein, iska matlab hai ke BoC shayad rate cuts se Canadian dollar par pressure ke bare mein itna concerned nahi hai. Investors aaj ke rate cut ki umeed kar rahe hain, magar naye cycle of rate cuts ke bare mein information bhi talash kar rahe hain. Inflation ab BoC ke target range 1% se 3% ke andar reh gayi hai, aur yeh saat consecutive months se is range mein hai.
Federal Reserve ki tarah, policymakers inflation se labor market ki kamzori ki taraf shift kar rahe hain. BoC ka aim hai ke inflation giraaye bina labor market ko collapse kare aur economy ko recession mein na le jaye. US employment data Fed ke rate cut decision ke liye key hoga.

US is haftay employment data release karega jo Fed ke expected rate cut ke size ko determine karega. CME's FedWatch ke mutabiq, quarter-point cut ke odds 70% se gir kar 59% ho gaye hain, jabke half-point cut ke odds 30% se barh kar 41% ho gaye hain. Aaj baad mein, US JOLT job vacancies release ki jayengi jo expect kiya ja raha hai ke 8.10 million tak gir jayengi, jo ke July mein 8.18 million thi.
Canadian Dollar Analysis in Roman Urdu
Canadian dollar Wednesday ko limited movement dikhata hai. European session ke dauran, USD/CAD 1.3555 par trade kar raha hai, 0.08% ka girawat ke sath. Bank of Canada (BoC) will announce rate decision soon. BoC se expect kiya ja raha hai ke yeh 25 basis points se rates cut karega, jo ke pehli baar nahi, balki teesri baar ho raha hai, aur yeh kisi bhi major central bank ka sabse zyada rate cut hai.

BoC ki umeed hai ke yeh saal ke baqi waqt aur 2025 tak rates cut karte rahenge, taake Canada ki sluggish economy ko support mil sake. Federal Reserve bhi is mahine aur shayad is saal ke baad rate cuts ki umeed hai, jo BoC ke liye aasan banata hai rates cut karna bina Fed se zyada divergence ke

AUD/USD pair ne Friday ko European session ke doran 0.6800 ki round-figure support ke ooper rehte huye apni position barqarar rakhi. Australian dollar zyada farq nahi dikhaya jab ke Federal Reserve ke November policy meeting mein dobara se aggressively interest rates cut karne ki afwahen barh rahi hain. Fed ne Wednesday ko policy normalization ki taraf ruk karte hue 50 basis points ka rate cut announce kiya, jo rates ko 4.75%-5.00% tak le gaya. Ye ek wazeh ishara hai ke Fed labor market ki conditions ko mazeed kharab hone se bachane par focused hai
Interest rate guidance ke hawale se, Fed ke dot chart se yeh pata chalta hai ke policy makers expect karte hain ke federal funds rate saal ke aakhir tak 4.4% tak barh jaye ga, jo yeh suggest karta hai ke central bank kam se kam 25 basis points ka rate cut karega. Lekin traders November aur December mein hone wali remaining do policy meetings mein 75 basis points ke interest rate cuts ki umeed kar rahe hain, jismein se ek rate decision 50 basis points ka cut ho sakta hai. November mein Fed ka interest rate 50 basis points tak cut kar ke 4.25%-4.50% tak lane ka imkaan 43% hai, jo ke Thursday ko 37% tha, yeh CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq hai

Tareekhi tor par, China ke economic developments ka Australian dollar par aham asar hota hai kyun ke dono kareebi trading partners hain. Aaj subha AUD/USD pair ne 0.6838 ka no-mahina high chua, jo chaar mutawatar green candles bana raha hai. Pair ko 200-day SMA par 0.6620 par aham support mili, jo ke medium-term bullish structure ko extend karta hai. Technical oscillators daily chart par kuch mixed signals de rahe hain. Stochastic ne overbought zone mein %K aur %D lines ke darmiyan ek bearish crossover banaya, lekin RSI ne apni bullish momentum ko 50 ke area ke ooper barqarar rakha. Mazeed upward pressure 0.6870-0.6900 ke resistance zone ka imtihaan le sakta hai, jo December 2023 aur June 2023 ke highs ko represent karta hai

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

Rumors ghoom rahe hain ke aane wale November ki policy meeting mein aggressive interest rate cuts honge. Federal Reserve ne haal hi mein 50 basis point ka rate cut announce kiya, jisse federal funds rate ab 4.75% se 5.00% ke darmiyan hai. Yeh kadam Fed ki taraf se mazdoor bazar ki halat ko behtar banane ki koshish ka ishaara hai.

Interest rate guidance ke hawale se, Fed ki dot plot yeh dikhati hai ke policymakers expect karte hain ke federal funds rate saal ke akhir tak 4.4% tak pahunchega. Yeh yeh batata hai ke central bank kam se kam 25 basis point ka cut implement karne wala hai. Lekin traders November aur December ki baqi policy meetings mein 75 basis points ke rate cuts ki umeed kar rahe hain, jismein se ek cut 50 basis points tak bhi ho sakta hai. CME FedWatch Tool ke mutabiq, November mein 50 basis points ka cut hone ki sambhavana ab 43% tak pahunche gayi hai, jabke pehle yeh 37% thi.

Ek wider economic context mein, China ke developments ka Australian dollar par gehra asar hai, kyun ke dono mulkon ke darmiyan kareeb trading relationship hai. Aaj subah, AUD/USD pair ne 0.6838 ka no-month high tak pahuncha, jo ke char musalsal green candles ka nishan hai.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

Yeh pair 200-day SMA par 0.6620 ke aas-paas zaroori support dhoondh raha hai, jo ke madhi muddat ke liye bullish outlook ko mazid taqat deta hai. Lekin daily chart par technical indicators mixed signals de rahe hain. Stochastic oscillator ne overbought zone mein bearish crossover generate kiya hai, jabke RSI 50 ke level ke upar bullish momentum banaye rakha hai.

Jaisay jaisay bazaar aage dekh raha hai, AUD/USD par mazeed upar ka pressure 0.6870 aur 0.6900 ke beech resistance zone ko test kar sakta hai, jo ke December 2023 aur June 2023 mein pahunche gaye highs ke mutabiq hai. Agar Fed rate cuts karne ka faisla karta hai, jaisa ke andaza lagaya ja raha hai, toh is se U.S. dollar kamzor ho sakta hai, jo Australian dollar ko support dega aur AUD/USD pair ko upar le ja sakta hai. Traders aur investors Federal Reserve ke faislon aur China ke economic developments par nazar rakhne wale hain, kyun ke ye factors currency movements par aham asar dalenge.

Aakhir mein, monetary policy aur international economic factors ke darmiyan taluq AUD/USD pair aur broader financial markets ke liye critical rahega, jahan bohot se log saal ke akhri hisson mein volatile landscape ki umeed kar rahe hain.

AUD/USD Market Outlook

Sab ko salaam aur subha bakhair!
Kal US FOMC ke member Harker ka khitaab AUD/USD sellers ki madad nahi kar saka. Isi wajah se market 0.6800 zone tak barqarar raha. Magar aakhri ghantay sellers ke haq mein rahe jab woh border par pohanch gaye. Is ke ilawa, umeed hai ke US dollar qareebi dino mein thori stability haasil kar sakega. Is haftay ka waqt mushkil raha, lekin naye economic data ke release aur monetary policy mein tabdeeliyan US dollar ki recovery mein madadgar sabit ho sakti hain. Market ke shirakat daar inflation, retail sales, aur consumer confidence ke reports par ghore se dekh rahe hain. Agar in reports mein koi positive surprises milein, toh yeh US economy par aitmaad ko bahal karne mein madad kar sakti hain aur dollar ko zaroori boost de sakti hain.

Trading ke liye, main AUD/USD par aik buy order ko pasand karta hoon, jiska short target 0.6845 hai Monday ke liye. Halankeh Federal Reserve ab bhi market ke direction ko shape dene mein aik markazi kirdar ada karega. Fed ke efforts jo ke inflation ko manage karne aur labor market mein stability barqarar rakhne ke liye hain, yeh future mein US dollar ki trajectory tay karne mein critical sabit honge. Agar data mein improvement ke asar dikhai diye, toh Fed zyada hawkish stance le sakta hai, jo ke dollar ko support karega. Lekin agar economic outlook mein uncertainty barqarar rahi, toh dollar ko musalsal challenges ka samna reh sakta hai. Umeed hai ke AUD/USD market buyers ki madad karegi aur uptrend direction barqarar rahegi.

Aakhir mein, guzishta hafta US dollar ke liye ek mushkil waqt raha, kyunke kai economic data releases aur policy decisions ne currency par bura asar dala. Kuch positive developments bhi hui, jaise Philly Fed Manufacturing Index ka behtari aur unemployment claims mein kami, lekin yeh broader negative sentiment ko door karne ke liye kafi nahi thi. Dusri currencies, jaise euro, British pound, aur Japanese yen, dollar ki kamzori se faida utha rahe the, jo ke un logon ke liye acha moka tha jo losses ko recover karna chaahte the. Aage dekhte hue, aanay wali economic reports aur potential monetary policy ke tabdeeliyan US dollar ko dobara stabilize karne mein madadgar ho sakti hain.

Stay blessed aur stay safe!

Meri raye mein, agar price resistance ko paar nahi kar pati, toh yeh wapas daily support area ki taraf jaayegi jo ke 0.6763x ke price range mein hai. Halankeh price dobara se dominant hote hue upar barh gayi, magar apni highest resistance tak nahi pohonchi. Magar is cheez ko samajhna zaroori hai ke aaj ke liye price ka izafa zyada dominant ho sakta hai. Is waqt, sabse behthreen approach yeh hai ke hum intezar karein ke price resistance ko break kare aur agli resistance tak 0.6863x ke price par pohonche, ya phir reject ho kar neeche support 0.6712x ke aas paas gir jaaye. Iss current position mein, upar jaane ka rujhan abhi bhi hai, lekin neeche jaane ka bhi equal chance hai. Meri raye mein, AUD/USD pair ke liye aaj ka mood yeh hai ke agar resistance break ho jaaye toh buy karein, aur agar support break ho jaaye toh sell karein. Yeh last candlestick ke doji form par base karta hai, jo ke buyers aur sellers ke darmiyan balance ko show karta hai. Abhi, AUD/USD pair daily opening level par trade kar raha hai jo ke balance mein lag raha hai. Aage ke price movements ko analyze karne ke liye, hum M30 time frame par nazar daal sakte hain. Yahan par do minor support aur resistance areas hain, ek 0.6787x price ke aas paas upar ki had par aur doosra 0.6778x price ke aas paas neeche ki had par. Yeh do areas aane wale time mein achi entry opportunities de sakti hain. AUD/USD currency pair ki movement abhi bhi bullish movements ke zair e tarsarf rehne ki poori guzarish hai aur is baat ka imkaan hai ke yeh aagey bhi barh sakti hai. Filhaal mein khud bhi intizaar aur talaash kar raha hoon ke bullish potential ke sath BUY setup banaye jo ke level 0.6855 ke range tak ja sake. Agar yeh target ko haasil karne mein kamyaab hoti hai toh yeh baqiyaat level ki taraf barhne mein mazeed pur-itminan hogi. Lekin agar yeh nakam hoti hai, toh umeed ki jaa sakti hai ke yeh wapas se neeche gir jaye gi. AUD/USD currency pair ki market trend jo ke mazi chand dino se bullish condition mein thi, toh buyers se yeh umeed hai ke unke paas price ko barhane ka mazeed potential ho sakta hai, lekin abhi market ke price downward correction ke sath market ki conditions Ko reverse karne ki koshish kar rahi hai, kyun ke market aaj subah se khuli hai. Relative Strength Index indicator ki line abhi bhi level 50 se upar aram se chal rahi hai jo ke bullish trend ki nishani hai. Candlestick ki position abhi bhi 0.6780 ke price level ke upar hai jo ke upward moving market ki taraf ishara kar rahi hai. Is haftay ke price movement mein momentum ko dekhte hue jo ke zyada taur par bullish direction mein move kar raha tha, meri analysis ke mutabiq yeh mumkin hai ke price dobara se bullish trend par aajaye jab tak ke market kal subah band na ho

AUD/USD karansi pair ne haal hi mein aisi harkat dikhayi jo pehle nazar mein choti lagti hai, lekin asal mein yeh bearish trend ke jaari rehne ki nishani hai. Jo traders is pattern ka tajziya kar rahe hain, un ke liye yeh ek moqa hai ke woh downtrend ka faida utha kar sell position khol sakte hain. Yeh setup, jo dekhne mein chhota lagta hai, lekin agar strategic tareeqay se kiya jaye, to munafa bakhsh trade sabit ho sakta hai.
Agar traders abhi sell option lena chahte hain, to waqt ka bohat aham kirdar hai. Market ki mojooda position bearish trend ko mazid barqarar rakhti hai, jo yeh batlata hai ke abhi sell karna faida mand ho sakta hai. Is strategy ka aik ahem hissa stop loss lagana hai. Stop loss ko 0.68392 ke upar lagana ek samajhdari ka faisla hoga. Yeh level ek ahem resistance point hai, aur agar price is se upar jati hai, to yeh is baat ki nishani ho sakti hai ke bearish trend kamzor ho gaya hai, aur trade ko dobara ghoor karna zaroori ho sakta hai.

Lekin agar price is level se neeche rehti hai, to yeh sell setup kaafi faida mand ho sakta hai. Traders ko apne profit-taking positions neeche dekhni chahiye. 0.68300 aur 0.68200 ke darmiyan ka range wo jagah hai jahan traders apna munafa hasil kar sakte hain. Yeh range market ko neeche girne ka kaafi mauqa deta hai, jis se traders apna munafa lock kar sakte hain aur risk ko kam kar sakte hain.

Is approach ka logic bearish continuation patterns ke structure mein chhupa hai. Aksar, thodi si consolidation ya minor price movement ke baad, market dobara neeche ki taraf jata hai, jo ke pehle se chal raha trend hota hai. Yeh un traders ko surprise kar sakta hai jo market ki overall direction ka ghoor se tajziya nahi karte. Agar yeh patterns jaldi pehchane jaayein, to traders market mein puri yaqeen ke sath enter kar sakte hain, yeh jaan kar ke neeche jaane ke imkaanat zyada hain.

Is ke ilawa, jo profit-taking ka range hai (0.68300 aur 0.68200 ke darmiyan) wo yeh suggest karta hai ke potential reward risk se zyada hai. Agar price foran 0.68200 tak nahi girti, to bhi is range ke mukhtalif levels par profit lena traders ke liye ek acha moqa hai.

Akhir mein, AUD/USD ki recent price action chhoti lagti hai, lekin yeh ek bara bearish trend continuation ka hissa hai. Jo traders is pattern ko samajhte hain aur accordingly action lete hain, jaise ke sell position open karna, stop loss ko 0.68392 ke upar set karna, aur 0.68300 – 0.68200 range mein profit target karna, wo apne aap ko ek profitable result ke liye tayar kar sakte hain. Yeh setup risk ko manage karne aur market momentum ka faida uthane ka behtareen tareeqa hai.

Technical point of view se dekha jaye to AUD/USD karansi pair is waqt 0.683713 level ke qareeb trade kar raha hai, jo ke Monday ki subha ke trading session mein thodi bohot gains dikhata hai. Yeh movement shayad chhoti lage, lekin yeh traders ki tawajjo ka markaz hai, khas tor par kuch ahem psychological aur technical levels ke qareeb hone ki wajah se.
0.684300 ka mark aik significant psychological level hai jisko traders bohot gaur se dekh rahe hain. Psychological levels aksar barriers ka kaam karte hain, chahe wo support ho ya resistance, kyun ke yeh round numbers hote hain jo traders ke liye important hote hain. Is surat mein agar price 0.684300 ke resistance level ko cross kar leti hai, to yeh AUD/USD pair ke liye ek mazid bullish momentum ka signal ho sakta hai. Is breakthrough ke baad zyada buyers market mein aa sakte hain, jo ke price ko mazeed upar le ja sakta hai.

Aik bara factor jo is breakout ko influence kar sakta hai wo Federal Reserve ki monetary policy hai. Agar Federal Reserve interest rates mein kami karti hai, to iska nateeja U.S. dollar ki kamzori ki surat mein nikal sakta hai, jis se Australian dollar zyada attractive ho jayega. U.S. dollar ki kamzori aksar AUD/USD pair ko barhati hai, kyun ke in dono currencies ka ulta talluq hota hai. Is liye, aik rate cut is pair ke liye mazeed rally ka sabab ban sakta hai.

Dooji taraf, traders ko support levels par bhi nazar rakhni chahiye. 0.6835 ka level ek critical support zone hai. Agar price is level se neeche girti hai, to yeh bearish sentiment ka aghaz ho sakta hai, jo mazeed selling pressure ko trigger kar sakta hai. Support level ke neeche girne ki surat mein AUD ke liye mazeed losses ho sakte hain, kyun ke sellers price ko aur neeche dhakelne ki koshish karenge.

Resistance ka factor bhi is setup mein bohot ahem hai. 0.6845 ka level abhi resistance ka kaam kar raha hai, aur yeh wo point hai jisko traders closely monitor kar rahe hain. Agar price is level ko break kar leti hai, to yeh current upward trend ke continuation ka signal ho sakta hai. Lekin agar price isko cross nahi kar pati, to shayad reversal ya narrow range mein consolidation dekhne ko mile.
Nateeja yeh hai ke AUD/USD iss waqt critical levels ke qareeb trade kar raha hai, jahan support 0.6835 par aur resistance 0.6845 ke aas paas hai. Traders ko in levels ke qareeb hone wali movements par tawajjo deni chahiye, kyun ke kisi bhi direction mein break significant market action ka signal ho sakta hai. Saath hi, Federal Reserve ka rate cut aik ahem event hai jo price action ko influence kar sakta hai, aur U.S. dollar ki kamzori AUD ke liye mazeed gains ka sabab ban sakti hai.

AUD/USD currency pair ke price action ko evaluate karne par hai. Ek aur important factor jo decline ko drive kar raha hai woh CCI indicator hai, jo weekly chart par upper overheating zone se gir raha hai. Is dauran, CCI par ek bearish convergence nazar aayi, jo 0.6753 level ke aas-paas girawat ka signal de rahi hai, jisse price movement niche aayi hai. Dusre major currency pairs bhi US dollar ko strengthen karte huye dikhayi de rahe hain. Fibonacci grid ko pehli wave par apply karne se decline ke liye clear target milta hai: Fibonacci grid par 161.8 level, jahan ek intermediate target technical level 0.6639 par hai. Price yahan hai, lekin is target tak pahunchne se pehle 0.6689 par nearest resistance tak choti si pullback dekhne ko mil sakti hai. Buying positions tabhi advisable hain jab 161.8 Fibonacci level tak pahuncha jaye, jahan ek corrective growth wave ban sakti hai. AUD/USD pair ki kamzori ko aur barha raha hai. In central bank signals ke milaap ne Australian dollar ke liye ek challenging environment bana diya hai. Investors apni positions ko adjust kar rahe hain, jab ke Fed aur RBA ke monetary policy ke trajectories mein farq hai. Yeh farq aam tor par US dollar ko mazid mazboot aur Australian dollar ko kamzor banata hai, jo ke AUD/USD exchange rate ke neeche aane mein zahir ho raha hai. Iske ilawa, broader market conditions aur risk sentiment bhi currency movements ko shape karte hain. Global economic outlook, geopolitical developments, aur commodity prices mein utar charhao bhi AUD/USD pair ko mutasir kar sakte hain. Misal ke taur par, commodity prices, khas tor par Australia ke key exports jaise ke iron ore, Australian dollar ki performance par asar dal sakti hain. Commodity prices ke kamzor hone se AUD par aur zyada pressure a sakta hai, jo ke pair ke haali low levels mein shamil hai.
AUD/USD ka initial resistance level 0.6643 par ho sakta hai. Agar initial resistance level break kar liya gaya, toh agla bullish target 0.7121 ho sakta hai. Agar 0.7121 ke upar close hota hai, toh market price 0.7543 tak ja sakta hai, jo ke 3rd level of resistance hai.
Doosri taraf, AUD/USD ka initial support level 0.6616 par ho sakta hai. Agar initial support level break kar liya gaya, toh agla bearish target 0.6593 ho sakta

Hamari guftagu mein aaj hum AUD/USD currency pair ki mojooda pricing behavior ka tajziya kar rahe hain. Market sentiment kaafi zyada US dollar ko bechne ke haqq mein tha, aur naturally AUD/USD pair ne bhi is rujhan ko follow kiya. Yeh pair dheemi magar yaqini growth dikha raha tha, halan ke doosri major currencies jitni tezi se nahi bara. Phir bhi, yeh significant levels tak pohnch gaya aur critical benchmarks ko test kiya, jisse selling opportunities ka socha ja sakta tha. Aaj, lekin, na to growth ka silsila jari raha aur na hi koi girawat dekhnay ko mili. H4 chart par Aussie shaayad ek flat correction phase mein dakhil ho sakta hai, jiske baad growth ka imkaan hai ke wapas aaye. Is surat-e-haal mein mujhe koi clear trading options nazar nahi aa rahi hain. Buying ke liye ek deeper pullback ki zaroorat hai, aur selling tabhi mumkin hai jab Friday ke high ko break kare, lekin in dono scenarios mein se koi bhi abhi mojood nahi hai. Isliye, mein filhal Australian market se door hoon. Four-hour chart par MACD indicator ek bearish divergence ko dikhata hai, jo girawat ka strong signal hai, aur yeh materialize zaroor hoga.
Australian Dollar ki recent weakness ka primary driver China ki deteriorating economic outlook hai. Mulki Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) wo pace nahi dikha saka jo expected tha, jo ke demand mein kami ko zahir karta hai, chahe wo domestically ho ya internationally. Is concern ko aur barhaya PBoC (People's Bank of China) ke surprising rate-cut decision ne, aur Third Plenary Session mein kisi bhi substantial spending measures ka na hone ka asar bhi. China ki economic health ka ek key proxy hone ke natije mein, Australian Dollar ko in developments se kaafi zyada nuqsaan pohcha hai recent trading sessions mein. In challenges ke bawajood, USD apne struggles face kar sakta hai kyun ke Federal Reserve (Fed) ke September mein rate cut ke imkaanat barh rahe hain. Yeh potential development AUD/USD pair par downward pressure ko kuch hadd tak kam kar sakta hai. Traders ab Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data ke release ka intezaar kar rahe hain, jo US ki economic conditions ke hawale se mazeed insights provide karega

AUD/USD pair apne long-term level 0.68 ke qareeb consolidate kar raha hai. Is consolidation se nikal kar pair ki aindah direction ka pata chalega ya to ye upar ja kar guzishta saal ka maximum update karega, ya neeche gir kar apne multi-month range mein wapas aayega. Meri rai mein, is kaari direction ka taaluq aane wale drivers par ho ga. Fede ne achanak 50 points ka rate cut kiya, jo ke market ne lagbhag digest kar liya hai. Ab market doosri central banks ke actions par ghore karega. Bank of Australia ka faisla Tuesday ko aayega, aur halaan ke koi tabdeeli ki umeed nahi hai, lekin surprises bhi ho sakte hain (jese Fed ke saath hua). Is liye, lagta hai ke market Tuesday tak apni jagah par stable rahega, phir movement shuru ho sakti hai.Is dauran, Aussie futures par positions barh rahi hain, jo yeh darshaati hain ke long positions accumulate ho rahi hain. Iska matlab hai ke Aussie ko mazid strong hone ki umeed hai. Magar sab kuch is baat par depend karta hai ke players kitne determined hain. Agar fixation hoti hai, to pair rollback kar sakta hai. Hamesha ki tarah, market par nazar rakhni hogi. Is base par, yeh currency pair filhal consolidate kar raha hai aur consolidation se nikalne ke baad near future ki direction wazeh hogi.Is baat ka zikar zaroori hai ke AUD/USD ka upward movement barqarar hai. Hum ne pehle hi apne qareebi targets 0.6825 ke aas paas achieve kar liye hain, halaan ke abhi tak upar nahi gaye. Lekin rollback ki koshishen kaamyaab nahi hui, khas tor par is wajah se ke hum 0.68 ke upar close hue hain. Aur zaroori hai ke higher targets bhi dekhe jaen, jo ke 0.69 ke aas paas hain. Magar ek achi correction ki zaroorat hai. Agle hafte mein bhi kaafi volatility ki umeed hai, kyunke important statistics, jaise ke US GDP, release hone wale hain, aur Bank of Australia ka meeting bhi hoga.Main khud abhi bhi northern direction dekhta hoon, lekin correction zaroori hai, aur agar hum 0.6675 se neeche gaye, tabhi mein buy karne ka sochunga. Trading mein sab ko good luck!

**AUD/USD Pair Ki Halat**
AUD/USD ka jorha apne lambay waqt ke sath 0.68 ke ird gird muqam par mustahkam ho raha hai. Is mustahkmi se nikalna agle rastay ka pata dega—ya to pichle saal ki bulandiyon tak pohanchna ya phir kuch mawaqay ke liye neeche ki taraf waapas jana. Mujhe lagta hai ke ye do options aane wale asraat par mabni hain. Federal Reserve ka achanak 50 points ka kamm hona asal mein pehle hi inhe shaamil kar chuka hai. Ab bazar doosri markazi bankon ke amal par nazar rakhega. Bank of Australia ka faisla mangal ko aana hai. Halankeh unse koi tabdeeli ki tawaqqo nahi hai, lekin chunaav ki surat mein hamesha koi na koi heran kun faisla ho sakta hai (jaise Fed se dekha gaya). Is liye, wo mangal tak waise hi ruk sakte hain, aur phir harqat shuru kar sakte hain. Is dauran, Aussie futures par positions ziada ho rahi hain, jo yeh darust karti hai ke long positions li ja rahi hain. Is liye, humein Aussie ki taqat mein izafa ki tawaqqo hai. Lekin sab kuch ye dekhega ke players kitne azm mein hain. Agar yahan fixation hoti hai to jorha neeche ki taraf waapas ja sakta hai. Jaise ke hamesha, humein apne haath dekhne hain. Is buniyad par, ye currency pair is waqt mustahkam hai, aur is se nikalne ka raasta agle kuch waqt ka pata dega.

Agar hum dekhein, to AUD/USD pair ke liye sab kuch mustahkam hai, is ma'ni mein ke upar ki taraf harkat jaari hai. Humne 0.6825 ke ilaaqay mein nazdeek ke maqasid ko haasil kar liya hai, halankeh ab tak hum is se upar nahi gaye. Lekin neeche ki taraf waapas jaane ki koshishain koi hasil nahi de rahi, kam az kam is liye ke hum 68th figure ke upar band hue hain. Aur yahan yeh bhi zaroori hai ke hum yeh dekhein ke is se bhi upar ke maqasid hain, jo 0.69 ke ilaaqay mein hain. Lekin is ke liye ek acha rollback ab bhi zaroori hai. Aur asal mein, agla hafta bhi kaafi gati kadi ka hoga, kyunke wahan bohot si ahem statistics aani hain, jin mein States ka GDP bhi shamil hai. Aur Bank of Australia ki meeting ka bhi khayal rakhna chahiye. Halankeh main khud ab bhi upar ki taraf dekh raha hoon, lekin ek correction ki zaroorat hai, aur agar hum 0.6675 se neeche gaye, to sirf wahan se kuch naya dekhna padega.

**AUD/USD Market Outlook**

Salam aur sab ko good morning! Aaj hum AUD/USD ke market outlook par baat karenge. Hal hi mein, US FOMC ke member Harker ki speech ne AUD/USD traders ko madad nahi di, jis wajah se ye pair 0.6800 ke zone mein ruka raha. Lekin aakhri ghanton mein traders ko kuch faida hua jab unhone is border ko cross kiya. Is waqt ye umeed hai ke US dollar agle dinon mein kuch stability haasil kar sakta hai.

Ye week kafi mushkil raha hai, lekin naye economic data aur financial policy mein potential changes ne US dollar ko support dene ki umeed jagai hai. Market players aanewale reports par nazar rakh rahe hain jo inflation, retail sales, aur consumer confidence se mutaliq hain. Agar in areas mein koi positive surprises aaye, to ye US economy par confidence wapas la sakta hai aur dollar ko zaroori support de sakta hai.

Trading points ke liye, main AUD/USD par ek buy order ki salahiyat deta hoon, jiska short target 0.6845 hai. Lekin yaad rahe, Federal Reserve ka kirdar market ki direction tay karne mein bohot ahem hai. Fed ke ongoing efforts inflation ko control karne aur labor market mein stability banaye rakhne mein critical honge. Agar data achi performance dikhata hai, to ye Fed ko hawkish stance lene par majboor kar sakta hai, jo dollar ko support dega.

Lekin agar economic outlook ab bhi uncertain raha, to dollar ko challenges ka samna karna par sakta hai. Humari umeed hai ke AUD/USD ki market buyers ke liye faida mand rahegi aur upward trend continue rahega. Aakhir kar, pichla week US dollar ke liye kafi challenging raha, jahan series of economic data releases aur policy decisions ka currency par bhari asar pada. Kuch positive developments, jaise ke Philly Fed Manufacturing Index aur unemployment claims mein kami, aaye hain, lekin ye broader negative sentiment ko neutralize karne ke liye kafi nahi the.

Dusri currencies, jaise ke euro, British pound, aur Japanese yen ne dollar ki kamzori se faida uthaya, jisse unhe apne losses recover karne ka mauqa mila. Aage dekhte hue, forthcoming economic reports aur potential financial policy changes US dollar ko dobara stabilize karne mein madadgar ho sakti hain.

Khush rahiye aur mehfooz rahiye!