جی بی پی/جے پی وولٹیلٹی: مارکیٹ تجزیہ

dinon ke gains reverse ho gaye. Pair lagbhag 190.90 ke aas paas trade kar raha tha, jo bullish momentum mein kamzori ki nishani hai. Technical analysis se mixed outlook ka pata chalta hai. Halanki MACD indicator short-term bullish momentum ka ishara de raha hai, magar overall trend bearish hai, kyun ke MACD line abhi bhi zero line ke neeche hai. 14-day RSI bhi 50 ke neeche hai, jo bearish sentiment ko darshata hai. 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) 191.63 par ek immediate resistance level hai. Agar price is level se upar break kare to bullish sentiment mazid mazboot ho sakta hai aur pair ascending channel ke upper boundary tak, 195.50 ke aas paas pohonch sakta hai. Lekin agar channel break ho gaya to bearish reversal ke asar hain, jo pair ko 7-mahine ke low, 180.09 tak le ja sakta hai. Pichlay kuch mahino mein GBP/JPY pair ne kaafi volatility dekhi hai, 16-saal ke high se August mein 180.07 ke low tak sharp sell-off hua. Jab ke pair ab recover kar chuka hai, iska advance 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) par ruk gaya hai. Agar bearish momentum barqarar rehta hai, to pair ko April ke low 190.00 par resistance ka samna ho sakta hai. Mazeed declines ko 188.22 aur 185.22 ke near-term support levels par roka ja sakta hai, aur phir shayad 8-mahine ke low tak girawat aa jaye. Upar ki taraf, agar pair recent rejection zone, 192.01, jo 200-day moving average se coincide karta hai, ko cross kar leta hai, to March ke high, 193.52, tak rasta khul sakta hai. Taake bullish trend barqarar rahe, pair ko is level ke upar break karna hoga aur June ke support, 197.18, ko target karna hoga. Kul mila kar, GBP/JPY pair ab uncertainty ke dor se guzar raha hai, jahan mixed technical signals aur economic factors iski direction ko asar kar rahe hain. Investors ko in developments par kareebi nazar rakhni chahiye taake behtareen trading decisions le sakein. Filhal, jo cheez dekhne ki zaroorat hai wo yeh hai ke market mein ek significant bearish reversal ka possibility hai, jaise pichle hafte ke akhir mein dekha gaya tha. Yeh dekhna zaroori hai ke kya price phir se neeche jayega ya candlestick uptrend ko barqarar rakhega

# GBP/JPY Ka Halat

Mangal ko GBP/JPY ne positive territory mein qadam rakha, jo ke thoda sa 194.00 ke upar gaya jab British pound (GBP) ne Japanese yen (JPY) ke khilaf kuch recovery dikhai. Yeh barhawa tab hua jab Japan ke Ministry of Economy ne August ke liye weaker-than-expected wage data jari kiya. Is data ke mutabiq, Japan ke labor force ki cash income ne August mein saal dar saal 3.0% ka izafa kiya, jo ke economists ki tawaqqo 3.1% se kam tha aur July ke revised 3.4% ke izafe se bhi neeche tha (jo pehle 3.6% report kiya gaya tha). Kamzor wage growth ka halka sa deflationary asar hai, jo Bank of Japan ke liye yeh unlikely bana deta hai ke woh apni current low interest rate 0.25% se barhaaye. Lambe arse tak low interest rates foreign capital inflows ko Japan mein kam kar sakti hain, jo yen ki demand ko ghataati hai aur currency ko kamzor karti hai. Yeh GBP/JPY ke upar chadhne ka ek aham wajah thi.

## Pound Ko Support Milna

Dusri taraf, pound ko thoda support mila jab Bank of England ke chief economist Hugh Pill ne suggest kiya ke mustaqbil mein kisi bhi interest rate cut ko ehtiyaat se implement karna chahiye. Isne GBP/JPY ko apne faide ko barqarar rakhne mein madad di, kyunki pound pehle se hi Bank of England ke Governor Andrew Bailey ke comments ke baad selling pressure mein tha. Bailey ne is baat ka izhar kiya tha ke central bank ko interest rate cuts ke liye "aggressive" hona chahiye, jo ke bade ya zyada frequent cuts ki mumkinat ka imkaan darust karta hai.

## Short-Term Trend

Short term mein, GBP/JPY abhi bhi ek aam taur par upar ki taraf trend dikhata hai, jabke yen ko Japan ke naye Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba ke comments ke wajah se mazeed mushkilat ka samna hai. Ishiba ne kaha ke maashi halat ke chalte, yeh mumkin hai ke interest rates abhi ke low levels par barqarar rahein. Unki baatein Bank of Japan ke Governor Kazuo Ueda ke pehle ke comments se bilkul alag thi, jinhon ne yeh kaha tha ke agar aane wale economic data expectations par pura utarta hai to interest rates barh sakte hain. Ishiba ne baad mein apne bayan ko wazeh kiya, kehkar ke unka maqsad Bank of Japan ke faislay ko pressure mein dalna nahi tha, jis se yen par downward pressure kuch had tak kam hua.

## Yen Ki Kamzori

Magar, yen abhi bhi nisbatan kamzor hai, jo imported goods ko Japanese consumers ke liye mehnga kar raha hai. Iska jawab dete hue, Japan ke leading currency diplomat, Atsushi Mimura, ne peer ko "verbal intervention" di, traders ko "speculative behavior" se bachaane ki warning di. Yen ki girawat ka ek aur sabab safe-haven currencies ki barhti demand hai, jo Middle East mein badhte huye conflicts se driven hai.

## Khulasa

Mukhtasir yeh kehna hai ke GBP/JPY yen ki kamzori aur pound ke liye ehtiyaati central bank statements ke wajah se upward momentum ka samna kar raha hai. Lekin, yen ki qeemat abhi bhi maashi challenges aur market speculation ke sabab dabao mein hai.

bullish movement resistance level ke aas paas hi hai. Agle hafte ke aaghaz mein ye dekhna interesting hoga ke kab bullish movement horizontal line resistance level ko pori tarah break karegi. Agar aisa hota hai, to strong bullish movement ko resistance level 191.56 ke upar dekha ja sakega, jiska potential bullish target 193.30 resistance level ho sakta hai. Agle hafte ke aaghaz mein jo cheezain madde nazar rakhni hain, wo 161.10 - 160.91 ka area hai agar strengthening jari rehti hai. Agar ye area successfully break ho jata hai, to ek rally ka imkaan hai jisme ke price 163.73 tak barh sakti hai. Dusri taraf, agar price 161.10 ka area penetrate karne mein nakam hoti hai aur EMA 200 H4 se reject hone ki tasdeeq hoti hai, to price mein kamzori ka imkaan hai jisme ke target EMA 12 H4 line tak hoga, phir EMA 36 H4 tak ja sakta hai. Iss area mein buyers momentum ka intezaar kar sakte hain ke wo wapas aaye aur phir se buy positions open karein. GBP/JPY pair mein Jumay ke roz kaafi bara izafa dekhne ko mila, jahan yeh 191.80s ke aas paas trade kar raha tha, jo aik quarter percentage point se zyada ka surge tha. Yeh izafa kuch aham macroeconomic data aur events ke nateeja mein aaya jo dono currencies par musbat asar dal rahe thay. UK ke Office for National Statistics (ONS) ke data ke mutabiq, August mein UK retail sales 1.0% barh gayi, jo umeed se zyada thi (0.4%) aur July ke 0.5% ke izafay se bhi zyada thi. Is ka matlab hai ke UK ke shoppers ab bhi ziada kharcha kar rahe hain bawajood is ke ke borrowing costs ziada hain, jo ke prices par upward pressure dal sakta hai aur inflation ko barha sakta hai. Yeh surat-e-haal Bank of England (BoE) ko interest rates cut karne se rokk sakti hai, aur usay 5.0% ke high rate ko barqarar rakhna parega taake foreign capital inflows ke zariye pound ko support mil sake. Bank of England ka apni September meeting mein interest rates ko hold par rakhne ka faisla (8-to-1 vote ke sath) sterling ko mazeed support de raha hai. Yeh faisla baqi central banks ke rate cuts ke baraks tha, jo ke global inflationary pressures ke kam honay par adopt kiye gaye hain. Iske ilawa, BoE ke policymaker Catherine Mann ke comments jo ke zyadatar restrictions ko baray arsay tak barqarar rakhne ke

GBP/JPY

Tuesday ko GBP/JPY positive territory mein chala gaya, aur 194.00 ke upar pohanch gaya jabke British pound (GBP) ne Japanese yen (JPY) ke muqable mein thora recovery show kiya. Yeh izafa Japan ki Ministry of Economy se aayi kamzor wage data ki wajah se hua, jo August ke liye tha. Data ke mutabiq, Japan ki labor force ki cash income August mein 3.0% year-on-year barhi, jo economists ke 3.1% ke forecast se kam thi aur revised 3.4% (jo pehle 3.6% report ki gayi thi) se bhi neeche thi. Kam wage growth ka ek halki si deflationary effect hota hai, jo Bank of Japan ke interest rates ko mazeed barhane ke imkanaat ko kam karta hai, jo is waqt 0.25% hain. Low interest rates zyada der tak barqarar rehne se Japan mein foreign capital inflows kam ho sakti hain, jo yen ki demand ko kam karta hai aur currency ko weak banata hai. Yeh GBP/JPY ke upward move ka ek bara sabab tha.
Dusri taraf, pound ko kuch support mila jab Bank of England ke chief economist Hugh Pill ne yeh suggest kiya ke future mein interest rate cuts ko ehtiyaat ke sath implement karna chahiye. Is se GBP/JPY ko apne gains barqarar rakhne mein madad mili, kyunke pound pe kuch selling pressure tha Bank of England ke Governor Andrew Bailey ke comments ke baad. Bailey ne kaha tha ke central bank ko interest rate cuts ke mamlay mein “aggressive” hona chahiye, jo ke bade ya zyada frequent cuts ka ishara tha.

Short term mein, GBP/JPY upward trend dikhata hai, jabke yen ko mazeed challenges ka samna hai, khas tor par Japan ke naye Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba ke comments ke baad. Ishiba ne kaha ke economic conditions ki wajah se yeh mumkin hai ke interest rates apne current low levels par barqarar rahen. Unka yeh bayan pehle Bank of Japan ke Governor Kazuo Ueda ke comments ke muqable mein tha, jinhon ne kaha tha ke agar aanay wala economic data expectations puray karey, to interest rates barhaye ja sakte hain. Baad mein, Ishiba ne apne bayan ko clarify karte hue kaha ke unka maqsad Bank of Japan ke decision-making process par koi pressure dalna nahi tha, jo ke yen par thoda downward pressure kam kar gaya.

Magar, yen ab bhi kaafi weak hai aur iski wajah se imported goods Japanese consumers ke liye mehngi hoti ja rahi hain. Iska jawab dete hue, Japan ke leading currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura ne Monday ko “verbal intervention” diya aur traders ko “speculative behavior” se mutaliq warn kiya. Ek aur factor jo yen ke decline mein hissa daal raha hai, wo hai safe-haven currencies ki demand ka barhna, jo Middle East mein conflicts ke intensify hone se driven hai.

Akhir mein, GBP/JPY upward momentum dikhata hai yen ki weakness aur pound ko cautious central bank statements se milne wale support ki wajah se. Magar, yen ki value ab bhi pressure mein hai economic challenges aur market speculation ki wajah se.

GBP/USD ne Thursday ko European trading hours mein apni girawat ko 1.3100 tak extend kiya. Yeh pair BoE ke governor Andrew Bailey ke sakht comments ke baad neeche aaya, jinhon ne kaha ke agar inflation kum hota hai to central bank rate cuts mein "zyada active" ho sakta hai. Middle East ke concerns ki wajah se risk aversion bhi is pair par asar daal raha hai. 4-hour chart par Relative Strength Index (RSI) ne subah 20 ke neeche girawat dekhi, jo GBP/USD ke liye oversold conditions ko darshata hai. Agar yeh pair kisi technical correction ki taraf jata hai, to pehla resistance 1.3175 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement) hoga, jo ke 1.3200 tak ja sakta hai, jahan 200-period simple moving average hai. Neeche ki taraf, 1.3100 (Fibonacci 78.6% retracement) agla support hai, jo ke 1.3050 aur 1.3000 ke static levels se pehle hai. GBP/USD par bohot zyada bearish pressure tha aur yeh Thursday ki subah 1.3100 ke aas-paas gaya. Yeh teen hafton mein iska sabse kam level hai. Aane wale waqt mein technical analysis oversold conditions ki taraf ishara kar raha hai, lekin pair ko decisive correction karna mushkil ho sakta hai.
US dollar ne apni taqat ko barkarar rakha aur Wednesday ko GBP/USD ko peeche rakha jab Automatic Data Processing ke zariye private sector employment ka data aaya, jo 143,000 tha, jo ke market ki expectations 120,000 se zyada hai. Guardian newspaper ke saath interview mein, Bank of England ke governor Andrew Bailey ne kaha ke agar inflation ke baare mein achhi khabrein aati hain to wo rate cuts mein thoda zyada proactive ho sakte hain. In comments ne Thursday ki subah pound sterling mein sell-off ka sabab bana.

GBP ki kamzori ko darshate hue, EUR/GBP pair din bhar mein 1% se zyada barh gaya. Baad mein, US economic calendar par weekly initial jobless claims aur September ISM services PMI data release hoga. Markets ko umeed hai ke pehli baar jobless benefits ke liye claims 220,000 tak pahunch sakte hain, jo pichle hafte ke 218,000 se thoda zyada hai. Agar yeh figure 200,000 ya isse neeche aata hai to USD ko support milega aur pair par aur pressure aayega. Agar ISM ka headline unexpected taur par 50 se neeche aata hai, to yeh bhi market par asar daal sakta hai

GBP/JPY pair ne apne daily highs jo ke 159.35 ke ird gird the, se zyada 100 pips ka decline experience kiya, aur European trade ke aghaz mein naye intraday lows tak gira. Filhal yeh 192.00 mark ke neechay trade kar raha hai, jo ke lagbhag 0.20% ka girawat hai. US Dollar (USD) ne momentum gain kiya jab Federal Reserve ke Chairman Jerome Powell ne apni hawkish policy ka stance maintain rakha, jo GBP ko pressurize karne ka ek bara sabab tha. Iske ilawa, GBP ki girawat ke peechay koi khaas fundamental reason nazar nahi aayi, lekin Bank of England ke rate cuts US aur Eurozone ke muqablay mein dheemi raftar ke intezaar ki wajah se declines bhi zyada gehre nahi honge.
Japan ke naye Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba ki interest rate hikes ke hawalay se ehtiyati tone aur 27 October ko general election ke elaan ki wajah se safe-haven Japanese yen mein kamzori aayi, jo ke GBP/JPY pair ke liye ek acha asar bana. UK ka final manufacturing PMI report jo 45.0 revise hua, pehle ke 44.8 se, market ke spot prices ko zyada farq nahi padha. Lekin jo above-mentioned fundamental scenario hai, us ke bawajood GBP/JPY pair mein koi baray downside ke liye strong sell-off ka intezaar zaroori hai. Technical point of view se dekha jaye to price ne baar baar 200-day simple moving average (SMA) ke upar rehna mushkil paya, aur daily chart par 50-day SMA ne 200-day SMA ko neeche cross karke "death cross" banaya, jo ke aggressive bullish traders ke liye ehtiyat ka sabab hai. GBP/JPY pair ne aakhri 10 dinon mein ek strong upward rally dekhi, jo 183.70 ke support level se recover karke 195.95 ka fresh two-month high touch kar chuka hai. Market ne 200-day simple moving average (SMA) aur 195.00 ka full level break kiya, jo ke upward correction ka rasta kholta hai.
Technically, Stochastic indicator overbought territory mein ab bhi rise kar raha hai, jabke RSI 70 level ke upar break karne ki koshish kar raha hai. Agar bulls ne momentum barhaya, to yeh 199.40 aur 201.60 jese resistance levels ko challenge kar sakta hai.

GBP/JPY ke D1 time frame chart par dekhne se ye wazeh hota hai ke is waqt sellers ne market par mazboot qabza kar rakha hai. Price action se yeh pata chalta hai ke bears ka ghalba hai, aur wo actively pair ko neeche dhakel rahe hain, jiska target ek aham support zone hai jo ke 195.12 ke qareeb hai. Ye area pehle bhi ek critical support ka kaam kar chuka hai, aur ab sellers koshish kar rahe hain ke wo is level ko tod kar neeche le jaayein, jo ke bearish trend ke continuation ka signal ho sakta hai. Agar sellers is aham support zone ko todne mein kaamyab ho jate hain, tou is se aur zyada downside movement ka rasta khul sakta hai, jisse GBP/JPY ko mazeed nuqsan uthana par sakta hai. Is waqt sellers ki strength ko aur zyada barhawa milne ki umeed hai upcoming CPI (Consumer Price Index) news data ke aane se. Agar data bearish outlook ke haq mein aata hai, tou yeh wo zaroori momentum faraham kar sakta hai jo pair ko 195.12 ke support level ke neeche le jane ke liye darkaar hai. Aise scenarios mein fundamental news ek powerful catalyst ka kaam karti hai, jo technical patterns ko aur zyada mazboot bana deti hai aur market mein zyada strong reaction paida kar sakti hai. Is setup mein primary focus sellers ki koshishon par hai ke wo decisively support levels ko todne ki koshish kar rahe hain, kyunki aisa move unki dominance ko confirm karega aur GBP/JPY mein deeper pullback ka signal milega. Traders ko is zone ko ghore se dekhna chahiye, kyunki agar breakout successful hota hai tou downward pressure barh sakta hai, jabke agar ye level tootne mein nakaam hota hai tou ye is baat ki nishani ho sakti hai ke strong buyers ab bhi is level ko defend karne ko tayyar hain. Linear regression channel ka rukh north ki taraf hai. H1 channel ab bullish trend ko determine kar raha hai. Neeche ke waqt mein corrective movement channel ke lower edge tak hai jo ke 193.454 par hai. Yahan ke qareeb strong buyer ki positions located hain. Jab price 193.454 tak jaye gi, tou bulls apni activity dikhana shuru karenge, jo ke unki maujoodgi ko zahir karegi. Agar market channel ke lower part par react nahi karta tou iska matlab hoga ke buyer weak hai. Is surat mein market ka downward movement barqarar rehne ke imkanaat zyada hain. Mazeed consolidation lower part ke neeche ho sakti hai. Aise bearish actions se H1 channel ka rukh neeche ho jaye ga aur trend mein unke haq mein tabdeeli aa sakti hai. Bulls, jo apni positions aur stops ko 193.454 ke neeche protect kar rahe hain, market ko upwards dhakelne ki koshish karenge taake apne target ko haasil kar sake.

Click image for larger version

GBP/JPY Market Analysis
Mangal – 15 October 2024

Pichlay hafte GBP/JPY currency pair par seller ka dabao dekha gaya, jis ke natijay mein ek downward correction hui. Magar ab hum dekh saktay hain ke buyer ki quwwat mein phir se bulandiyan hasil karne ki salahiyat hai aur bullish trend dobara tay ho sakta hai. Agar market ko dekha jaye, to yeh lagta hai ke price phir se bullish path par wapas aa sakta hai. Aakhri chand trading sessions mein candlestick ka movement upar ki taraf tha aur abhi bhi market mein thoda izafa ho raha hai.

Agle kuch dinon mein trading sessions ke dauran, main ab bhi is baat par optimistic hoon ke ek ideal area dhoondha ja sakta hai jahan se phir se ek BUY trading order diya ja sake, kyun ke meri rai mein market ke izafay ki potential kaafi barhi hai. Jo technical references is yaqeen ka buniyad hain, wo yeh hain ke buyers ne price ko neeche ke level se door kar diya hai, aur 192.20 se upar le gaye hain. Aik further technical estimation ke mutabiq GBP/JPY currency pair ka price aur bhi upar ja sakta hai.

Meri rai mein, BUY ka option ab bhi achi strategy ho sakti hai, bas ek valid setup ka intezar karna hoga jisse market mein ideal price level par entry di ja sake, aur agla increase ka target price 196.30 ke aas paas ho sakta hai. Agar buyers price ko 196.50 level ke upar le janay mein kaamyaab ho jate hain, to is hafte ke market ka trend aur bhi zyada clear ho jaye ga, jahan se price further higher move karegi.

Pichle haftay ke trading session mein shuruaat mein sellers ki koshish thi ke price ko neeche dhaka diya jaye aur bearish trend ko continue kiya jaye. Magar jab price 192.00 level ko break nahi kar saki, to ek reversal dekha gaya aur price wapas bullish trend ki taraf aa gayi. Isliye, market ke liye trading options mein mera mashwara yeh hai ke BUY trading entry area ko dhoonda jaye jo ke upar diye gaye technical analysis ke references par mabni ho.

**Nateeja:**
Buyer ki trading activity is haftay ke darmiyan badhne ki umeed hai, aur candlestick ka position bhi higher move kar sakta hai. Short-term market ka reversal bullish path ki taraf hai. Candlestick ne Simple Moving Average 60 indicator ko chhoo liya hai, jo yeh batata hai ke market mein abhi bhi bullish trend ka potential hai. Price movements ko dekh kar lagta hai ke yeh izafa jari rahe ga, isliye BUY trading opportunities par focus rehna behtar hai.

BUY trading level 195.55 ke aas paas rakha ja sakta hai, aur nearest resistance level 196.00 ko break karne ka target liya ja sakta hai, jahan se Take Profit 196.30 par aim kiya ja sakta hai. Risk limit ko 195.00 par rakha ja sakta hai. Agar buyer bullish target ko hasil karte hain, to agle trading sessions mein aur bhi izafa ka potential barh jaye ga.

**GBP/JPY Outlook Analysis:**

GBP/JPY ke D1 time frame chart par recent price action ne kuch aham developments dikhayi hain. Agar hum pichle kuch dino ke price movements ko dekhein, to yeh wazeh hai ke yeh pair ek bearish trend mein trade kar raha hai, aur candlestick formations mein significant downward momentum dikhayi de raha hai. Is bearish movement ne market sentiment mein aik tabdeeli ko highlight kiya hai, jahan sellers ne recent trading sessions mein control hasil kar liya hai. Kuch din pehle, GBP/JPY chart par price conditions selling pressure mein izafa dikhane lagay. Candlestick formations ko dekhte hue, lambi red candles nazar aati hain jo yeh batati hain ke sellers market mein dominate kar rahe hain, aur consistently price ko neeche dhakel rahe hain.

Aise bearish activity aksar technical factors ka nateeja hoti hai, jaise key resistance levels ka test hona, ya broader economic influences, jaise British pound ya Japanese yen ki strength mein tabdeeli, ya koi aisi news jo market sentiment ko impact karti ho. Is bearish momentum ke bawajood, yeh yaad rakhna zaroori hai ke koi bhi trend hamesha ke liye nahi rehta. Traders ko potential reversal ya consolidation ke signs ka intezaar karna chahiye, khaaskar jab yeh pair kisi key support levels ke qareeb pohanchta hai. Agar price kisi significant support zone tak pahunchti hai aur usko break karne mein nakam hoti hai, to momentum mein shift dekhne ko mil sakta hai, jo ke ek bounce aur shayad bullish recovery ka sabab ban sakta hai.

**GBP/JPY H4 Time Frame:**

H4 time frame chart par GBP/JPY ke dynamic aur alternating patterns dekhne ko milte hain, jahan bullish aur bearish trends mein pichle ek mahine ke dauran kaafi utaar chadhaav rahe hain. Is period mein price action significant fluctuations dikhata hai, jahan pair ne upar aur neeche dono taraf movements ki hain. Yeh alternating movements ne market ko kaafi active banaya hai, jahan buyers aur sellers ke liye trading opportunities available hain, depending on the momentum jo kisi bhi given session mein prevail karta hai.

In fluctuations ke bawajood, GBP/JPY pair ne consistently Simple Moving Average (SMA) 60 aur 150 indicators ke upar trade kiya hai, jo ke yeh suggest karta hai ke overall pair ko ek longer-term upward momentum ka support mila hua hai. Yeh dono moving averages trend strength aur support levels ke key indicators ke taur par kaam karte hain. Jab tak price in averages ke upar trade karti rahegi, yeh is baat ka ishara hai ke bullish sentiment ab bhi market mein dominate kar raha hai, chahe beech beech mein bearish corrections bhi aa rahi hoon.

H4 chart par bullish aur bearish trends alternate hote hue dikhayi diye hain, lekin SMA 60 aur SMA 150 ke upar position sustain rehne se yeh pata chalta hai ke overall bullish sentiment strong hai, aur yeh traders ke liye upward trend follow karne ka ek mauka bana raha hai, magar ehtiyat ke sath.

Technical tor par, pair consistent taqat dikha raha hai, jahan price critical support levels jaise 50-day aur 100-day moving averages ke upar hai. Yeh moving averages dynamic support zones ke tor par kaam kar rahe hain, jo bullish momentum ko barqarar rakhe hue hain. Iske ilawa, pair ne ek silsila bana rakha hai jo strong uptrend ka saboot de raha hai. Ahm resistance levels ko recently tor diya gaya hai, aur jab tak price in levels ke upar rehti hai, yeh likely hai ke bulls market mein dominate karte rahenge. Magar ek aham cheez jo dekhne ki zaroorat hai woh yeh hai ke GBP/JPY pair abhi overbought territory mein trade kar raha hai, jahan RSI 70 ke upar hai. Aksar jab market in levels tak pohanchti hai, toh yeh ishara hota hai ke asset shayad overextended hai aur kisi possible correction ke liye tayar hai. Halankeh, strong trends overbought conditions mein kuch arsa tak chal sakte hain pehle ke koi significant reversal aaye. Is liye, traders ko ehtiyaat karni chahiye aur bullish momentum mein koi exhaustion ke signs dekhne chahiye, khaaskar jab pair 195.50 aur 196.00 jaise key psychological levels ke qareeb ho. Aage dekhte hue, GBP/JPY ke liye next key resistance level 195.50 ke qareeb hai, jo ek psychological barrier ke tor par kaam kar sakta hai. Agar bulls pair ko is level se upar dhakelne mein kaamyaab ho gaye, toh hum aur bhi gains dekh sakte hain 196.00 aur shayad is se upar tak. Magar traders ko overbought conditions ka khayal rakhna chahiye aur ek chhoti correction ki umeed rakhni chahiye pehle ke bullish trend dobara shuru ho. In sab baton ko madde nazar rakhtay hue, GBP/JPY abhi bhi D1 time frame par ek strong bullish scenario ko darshata hai, lekin resistance levels aur overbought signals par nazar rakhni hogi taake current trend ki sustainability ka andaza lagaya ja sake.

**GBP/JPY Ka Tajziya: Haal aur Mustaqbil**

GBP/JPY ka currency pair apne daily highs ke 159.35 ke aas-paas se 100 se zyada pips ki kami ke sath gira hai, aur ab yeh pehle din ke low par trade kar raha hai, jo 192.00 mark se neeche hai, is din mein 0.20% tak ki kami ke sath. Is ghirawat ki wajah se US Dollar (USD) ko momentum mila hai, jab Fed ke Chairman Jerome Powell ne apna hawkish stance rakhne ka ailan kiya. Yeh ek aham wajah hai jo GBP ko daba raha hai. Iske ilawa, GBP ke losses ke liye koi wazeh fundamental catalysts nazar nahi aaye, aur yeh ghirawat tab tak seemit reh sakti hai jab tak Bank of England ke rate-cutting cycle ka tarteeb US aur Eurozone ke muqablay mein dheere rahne ki umeed hai. Japan ke naye Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba ki taraf se interest rate hikes ke hawale se cautious tone aur 27 October ko general election ke elan ne safe-haven Japanese yen ko kamzor kar diya hai, jo GBP/JPY pair ke liye ek tailwind ka kaam kar raha hai.

Iss dauran, UK ke final manufacturing PMI ki release ke baad spot prices mein zyada tabdeeli nahi aayi, jise pehle 44.8 se badal kar 45.0 kar diya gaya hai, jabke pichle mahine ki reading bhi aayi thi. Lekin, upar zikar kiye gaye fundamental backdrop ke madde nazar, yeh samajhna behtar hai ke kisi mazboot sell-off ka intezar kiya jaye pehle kisi significant downside ke liye GBP/JPY pair mein position lene se pehle.

Technical nazariye se dekha jaye to, price ne kayi dafa 200-day simple moving average (SMA) ke upar qabul nahi kiya, aur daily chart par "death cross" bana hai - 50-day SMA ne 200-day SMA ko neeche ki taraf cross kiya hai - isliye aggressive bullish traders ko ehtiyaat karni chahiye. GBP/JPY pair ne pichle 10 dinon mein bohot strong upward rally dekhi hai, jo 183.70 support level se mazboot recovery ke sath naya do mahine ka high 195.95 tak pahuncha. Market ne 200-day simple moving average (SMA) aur 195.00 ke full level ko break karne mein kamiyabi hasil ki, jo upward correction ke liye raasta bana raha hai.

Technical taur par, Stochastic indicator ab bhi overbought territory mein barh raha hai, jabke RSI 70 ke level se upar nikalne ki koshish kar raha hai. Agar bulls accelerate karte hain, to yeh agle resistance levels ko challenge kar sakta hai jaise ke 199.40 aur 201.60.

Yeh ghatnayein sab kuch dekhte hue, GBP/JPY ke traders ko market ki dynamic movements par nazar rakhni chahiye. UK aur Japan ki economic policies, interest rates, aur general elections jese factors sab GBP/JPY ki trading par asar dalte hain. Trader ko chahiye ke woh market ke fundamentals ko samjhen aur technical analysis ke sath combine karte hue behtar trading decisions lein.

Akhir mein, is waqt market mein ghirawat ke bawajood, traders ko opportunities ki talash mein rehna chahiye, kyunki market ke har phase mein buying aur selling opportunities hoti hain. Unhein samajhna chahiye ke market kabhi bhi ghat sakti hai ya barh sakti hai, aur isliye unhein risk management strategies ko implement karna chahiye taake wo kisi bhi unforeseen circumstances se bach sakein.

Is tarah, GBP/JPY ka tajziya karte waqt, fundamental aur technical factors dono ko samajhna bohot zaroori hai, taake traders ko kisi bhi market shift ka faida uthane ka moka mile.

jab upper channels ki lines tak pohanchti hai, wahan se neechay murnay ke baad ek price peak banati hai, jiska Matlab tha ke keemat ne neechay sudharna shuru karna tha. Lekin keemat ko phir se support mila aur ab isne keemat channels ko upar ki taraf tor karne mein kamyabi haasil ki hai, aur keemat ke liye qareebi resistance level 206.64 hai. Yeh level hai jahan se aap maujood level se dakhil ho sakte hain aur iske neechay maqsad tayyar kar sakte hain. Iqtasadi hawale se, Japan ke Forex currency markets mein intervention karne mein deri hone se yen ki nuqsan barh rahi hai. Agar kisi waqt expected Japanese intervention hota hai, to yeh currency pair ko bechne mein mazboot istiqrar la sakta hai. Bila kisi khatra ke bechnay ki policy abhi bhi behtareen hai. Monetary policy ke samne... Bank of England August mein interest rate mein kisi tarah ki kami nahi kar sakti agar inflation ke baray mein Canada aur Australia se warnings milti hain. Agar Monetary Policy Committee global inflation trends ke baray mein nishanae samjhe, to Bank of England August mein interest rates ko kam nahi kar sakta hai. Iqtisadi calendar ke natijon ke mutabiq... Is haftay Canada aur Australia se jari shuda figures ke mutabiq, global inflation phir se barh sakti hai. Canada mein May mein anjaane se inflation 0.6% mahine mein barh gaya, jo ke gegual expecte shuda miqdar se zyada tha. Australia mein maheenay ke CPI 3 mahinay se barabar 4.0% salana barh gaya hai GBP/JPY ki trading ke liye zaroori hai technical aur fundamental analysis dono ko samajhna: Technical Analysis: Traders aksar technical indicators jaise moving averages, Fibonacci retracements, aur Bollinger Bands ka istemal future price movements predict karne ke liye karte hain. Mukhtalif support aur resistance levels ko pehchan lena trading decisions mein ahmiyat rakhta hai. Carry Trade: Yeh strategy yen ko kam interest rates par udhaar lena aur zyada munafa dene wale pound assets mein invest karna shamil hai. Lekin agar interest rate policies ya market sentiment mein achanak tabdeeliyan aa jaayein to yeh risky ho sakti hai. News Trading: UK aur Japan se aane wale economic news releases

Pichlay haftay GBP/JPY currency pair mein seller ka pressure dekhne ko mila, jis ki wajah se ek downward correction hui. Lekin ab lagta hai ke buyers ka dabao abhi bhi mojood hai aur ek bullish trend ko dobara qaim karne ki sambhavnayein abhi bhi hain. Agar hum market ko dekhein, to wapas bullish raaste par chalne ka mauqa abhi bhi hai. Aakhri chand dino ke trading sessions mein candlestick movement upar jany ki koshish karti nazar aayi hai aur market abhi bhi thora barh raha hai.Aane wale trading sessions mein, main ab bhi apni optimism barkarar rakh raha hoon ke ek ideal area talash karoon jahan se dubara BUY trading order diya ja sake, kyun ke mere khayal mein market ke barhne ki potential ab bhi kaafi zyada hai. Technical reference jo is yaqeen ko buniyad faraham karta hai wo buyers ka kamyabi se price ko 192.20 ke level se upar push karna hai. GBP/JPY ke market ke technical halaat ke hawale se, mujhe lagta hai ke price ab bhi upar jany ka mauqa rakhti hai.Meri rai mein, BUY ka option ab bhi ghour karnay ke laayak hai, bas zaroorat hai ke market mein ideal price level par ek valid setup ka intezar kiya jaye. Agla increase ka target 196.30 ke price range ko dikhata hai. Agar buyers 196.50 ke level ko break kar lete hain, to market ka trend is haftay aur zyada wazeh ho jaye ga, jahan price aur upar move kar sakti hai.Pichlay haftay ke trading session mein, shuru mein sellers ne price ko neeche le janay ki koshish ki thi taake bearish trend ko jari rakha ja sake. Magar jab wo 192.00 ka level nahi todh sake, to bearish trend ulat gaya aur price wapas bullish trend par aa gayi. Trading options ke liye, meri rai hai ke BUY entry area ko talash karnay par ziada tawajjo di jaye, jese ke upar technical analysis mein wazeh kiya gaya hai. Hafte ke darmiyan mein buyers ka buying activity mein izafa hone ka imkaan hai, jo ke pechlay trading sessions ke muqable mein zyada volatility dekhay gi, is liye candlestick ka position bhi upar move karne ki umeed hai aur market ke short-term halaat ke saath mutabiq rahegi, jahan bearish trend bullish raaste par wapas aa raha hai. Candlestick ke position ko dekhte huay, jo ke Simple Moving Average 60 indicator ko choo gaya hai, yeh idea milta hai ke market abhi bhi bullish reh sakta hai. Mere khayal mein, price movement ka barhne ka rujhan ek reference hai ke BUY transaction ki opportunities talash karni chahiye.BUY trading level ka placement 195.55 ke price range mein dekha ja sakta hai, khas tor par agar target nearest resistance level ko break karne ka hai jo 196.00 par hai, aur Take Profit ka target 196.30 rakha ja sakta hai. Risk loss limit 195.00 par rakhi ja sakti hai. Agar buyers bullish target level tak pohanch gaye, to mazeed izafa ka potential agle trading session tak zyada ho jaye ga.

GBP/JPY ka jo jorhdaam hai, usne kuch behtar haalat mein daakhil hota hua, Tuesday ko 194.00 ke upar chala gaya, jab pound (GBP) ne Japanese yen (JPY) ke muqablay mein halka sa behtri dikhayi. August ke liye Japanese wage data, jo Ministry of Economy ki taraf se jari kiya gaya, wo bhi ummeed se kam tha. Iske mutabiq, August mein Japanese labor force ki cash income saalana 3.0% barhi, jo economists ke andaze se 3.1% ki kami thi aur July ke 3.4% ke izafa (jo 3.6% se neeche kiya gaya tha) se bhi ghat gaya. Aisa wage increase jo ummeed se kam ho, wo halki deflationary asar daal sakta hai aur isliye Bank of Japan ke liye yeh naubat aati hai ke wo apne kam dar 0.25% se interest rates ko barhane ki sambhavna ko ghatayein.
Lambi muddat tak low interest rates ke asar se Japan mein foreign capital flows mein kami aayegi, yen ki demand ghat jayegi, aur yeh currency kamzor hogi, jisse GBP/JPY ko kuch upar le jaane mein madad mili. Is dauran, pound ne bhi behtar haalat dikhayi jab Bank of England ke chief economist Hugh Bell ne kaha ke kisi bhi future interest rate cuts ko ehtiyaat se lagu karna chahiye. Isse GBP/JPY apni gains ko barqarar rakha, jab ke pehle pound ko becha gaya tha jab BoE Governor Andrew Bailey ne yeh kaha tha ke central bank ko interest rates mein "aggressive" kami karni chahiye, jo ye darshata hai ke bade ya zyada aksar cuts ki sambhavna hai.

GBP/JPY ke liye yeh kuch acha waqt hai kyunki yen ko additional headwinds ka samna hai. Naye Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba ne yeh kaha ke interest rates maujooda kam daron par bane rahne ki sambhavna hai, jo economic conditions ki wajah se hai. Unke bayan Bank of Japan ke Governor Kazuo Ueda ke bayan se alag the, jinhone yeh kaaha ke agar aane wale economic data umeed ke mutabiq raha, toh interest rates ko barhaya jana chahiye. Ishiba ne baad mein apne bayan ko saaf kiya ke iska matlab yeh nahi ke wo BoJ ke faislay lene ke amal par dabao daalna chahte hain, jisse yen par kuch neeche ki taraf ka dabao kam hua.