جی بی پی/جے پی وولٹیلٹی: مارکیٹ تجزیہ

GBP/JPY ka analysis is hafte ke dauran zyadah volatility ka samna nahi kar raha. Prices aksar EMA 50 aur pivot point (PP) 193.36 ke aas paas move kar rahi hain. Halanke lagta hai ke yeh upar ki taraf ja rahi hain, lekin ab tak yeh 195.94 ka high price nahi choo saki. Bullish trend ka direction abhi tak valid hai, aur rally ko resistance (R1) 197.17 tak pohchna chahiye. Jab price neeche jane ki koshish karti hai, toh yeh support (S1) 191.22 ke qareeb nahi aa pati. Agar price 195.59 ka nearest high pass karne mein nakam hoti hai, toh iska matlab hai ke price neeche ki taraf move karegi.

Price pattern ki structure tab tabdeel hui jab price ne 193.45 ke high prices ko cross kiya. Misal ke taur par, jab price correct ho kar SMA 200 ya low price 189.54 tak pohchti hai, toh yeh ek higher low pattern banata hai. Bullish trend ke direction mein move karti hui prices ko 195.94 ke high price se upar ek higher high pattern banana hoga. Yeh resistance (R1) 197.17 tak jaa kar confirm karegi ke higher high-higher low pattern ab bhi valid hai. Agar Japanese yen currency ki strength barh jaati hai aur price ko support (S2) 187.41 tak push karti hai, toh price pattern structure lower low-lower high mein wapas aa jati hai. Yeh is liye hota hai kyun ke price 189.54 ke low price ko cross karti hai, jo nullification point hai.

Stochastic index ka perspective price ko neeche le jane ka support karta hai agar parameters 90-80 ki overbought zone mein enter hone se pehle cross kar jayein. Halanke yeh saturation point tak nahi pohcha, lekin parameters ke cross hone se yeh indication milta hai ke GBP/JPY pair ki price ka increase ruk gaya hai. Dusri taraf, Awesome Oscillator (AO) index ne uptrend momentum ke liye koi surety nahi di. Histogram ab tak level 0 ya positive area ke upar hai, lekin histogram ka volume widen nahi ho raha, jo yeh bhi imkaan deta hai ke yeh negative area mein cross kar sakta hai.

Entry position setup:
Agar bullish trend ka direction aur price pattern structure ko dekha jaye jo ab tak higher high-higher low dikhati hai, trading options mein re-entry buy position EMA 50 ya pivot point (PP) 193.36 ke aas paas prefer ki jati hai. Confirmation tab milega jab Stochastic index ke parameters oversold zone (20-10) mein enter karne ke baad cross karenge. AO index histogram ka kam az kam level 0 ya positive area ke upar rehna aur volume ka widen hona zaroori hai. Take profit ko resistance (R1) 197.17 par place kiya jata hai, jab ke stop loss support (S1) 191.22 ya SMA 200 par place hota hai.

GBP/JPY pair ne Tuesday ko ek halka sa rebound dekha, jahan price 194.00 ke upar pohanch gayi jab British pound ne Japanese yen ke muqable mein taqat dikhayi. Yeh upward movement zyada tar Japan ke August wage data ke expected se kamzor aane ki wajah se hui, jis ne Bank of Japan ke interest rate hike ke chances ko kam kar diya. Ministry of Economy ne report kiya ke Japanese labor force ki cash income August mein 3.0% year-on-year barhi, jabke economists ka forecast 3.1% tha, aur yeh July ke revised 3.4% increase se bhi kam thi. Wage growth ka yeh kamzor aana mild deflationary effect ka sabab bana, jo ke Bank of Japan ke interest rates ko 0.25% ke relatively low level se upar karne ke imkaan ko aur bhi kam karta hai. Japan mein lambi muddat tak low interest rates rehna foreign capital inflows ko discourage karega, yen ki demand ko kam karega, aur aakhir mein yen ki girawat ka sabab banega. Yeh factors GBP/JPY pair ke slight upward movement mein madadgar sabit hue.

Isi dauran, pound ne gain kiya jab Bank of England ke chief economist, Hugh Bailey, ne central bank ke future mein interest rate cuts ke khilaf caution diya. Iss statement ne GBP/JPY pair ko apni gains maintain karne mein madad di, jo pehle BoE ke Governor Andrew Bailey ke zariye diye gaye larger ya zyada frequent interest rate cuts ke suggestions ki wajah se sell-off ka shikar tha.

GBP/JPY pair ne guzishta 10 dino mein ek strong upward rally dikhayi, aur fresh two-month high 195.95 par pohanch gayi, jab price 183.70 ke support level se mazbooti se recover hui. Market ne successful 200-day simple moving average (SMA) aur 195.00 level ko breach kar liya, jo future mein aur upward momentum ka signal de raha hai. Technically, Stochastic indicator overbought zone mein hai, jo potential overbought conditions ki taraf ishara karta hai. Magar, RSI 70 level ke upar break karne ki koshish kar raha hai, jo yeh suggest karta hai ke bulls ka upper hand ho sakta hai. Agar bullish momentum aur tez hota hai, toh pair agle resistance levels, jaise ke 199.40 aur 201.60 ko challenge kar sakti hai.

Overall, yen ko ab bhi bohot weak perceive kiya ja raha hai, kyun ke iski depreciation Japanese consumers ke liye imported goods ko mehnga kar rahi hai. Is wajah se leading currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura ne Monday ko ek "verbal intervention" diya, aur traders ko speculative behavior se bachne ki hidayat ki.

GBP/JPY pair ne Tuesday ko thodi si rebound dekhi, jo ke 194.00 se thoda upar pohanch gaya jab British pound ne Japanese yen ke muqablay mein taqat hasil ki. Yeh upar ki taraf ka harqat mukhya tor par August ke liye Japanese wage data ke weak hone ki wajah se tha, jisne Bank of Japan ke taraf se potential interest rate hike ki umeedon ko kam kar diya. Ministry of Economy ne report kiya ke Japanese labor force ka cash income August mein saalana 3.0% se barh gaya, jo economists ke andazay 3.1% se neeche hai aur July ke revised 3.4% ke barhote se bhi kam hai. Yeh weak wage growth thoda deflationary asar daal raha hai, jo Bank of Japan ke 0.25% ke relatively low interest rates ko barhane ki sambhavana ko kam karta hai. Japan mein lambi muddat tak low interest rates foreign capital inflows ko discourage karegi, yen ki demand ko ghatayegi, aur aakhir mein currency ki kami ka sabab banegi. In factors ne GBP/JPY pair mein thodi si upward movement ko contribute kiya. Is darmiyan, pound ne Bank of England ke chief economist, Hugh Bailey, ke kehne par taqat hasil ki, jinhon ne central bank ke taraf se kisi bhi future interest rate cuts ke khilaf caution di. Is bayan ne GBP/JPY pair ko apne gains ko banaye rakhne mein madad di, jo ke pehle BoE Governor Andrew Bailey ke zariye ziada ya barh kar interest rate cuts ke suggestion se sell-off ke baad tha.

GBP/JPY pair ne pichle 10 dinon mein ek mazboot upward rally ka izhar kiya, jo ke 183.70 support level se mazbooti se recover hone ke baad 195.95 par ek naya do-maheena high tak pohanch gaya. Market ne 200-day simple moving average (SMA) aur 195.00 level ko successfully breach kar diya, jo ke aage ke upward momentum ke liye ek zamin tayar karta hai. Technical tor par, Stochastic indicator abhi bhi overbought zone mein hai, jo potential overbought conditions ko darshata hai. Lekin, RSI 70 level ko paar karne ki koshish kar raha hai, jo yeh darshata hai ke bulls ke paas upper hand ho sakta hai. Agar bullish momentum tez hota hai, toh pair agle resistance levels, jaise 199.40 aur 201.60 ko challenge kar sakta hai. Overall, yen ko bahut kamzor mana ja raha hai, kyunki iski kami imported goods ko Japanese consumers ke liye mehnga banati hai. Isne leading currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura ko Monday ko ek "verbal intervention" karne par majboor kiya, jismein unhone traders ko speculative behavior se bachne ki warning di.

bullish movement resistance level ke aas paas hi hai. Agle hafte ke aaghaz mein ye dekhna interesting hoga ke kab bullish movement horizontal line resistance level ko pori tarah break karegi. Agar aisa hota hai, to strong bullish movement ko resistance level 191.56 ke upar dekha ja sakega, jiska potential bullish target 193.30 resistance level ho sakta hai. Agle hafte ke aaghaz mein jo cheezain madde nazar rakhni hain, wo 161.10 - 160.91 ka area hai agar strengthening jari rehti hai. Agar ye area successfully break ho jata hai, to ek rally ka imkaan hai jisme ke price 163.73 tak barh sakti hai. Dusri taraf, agar price 161.10 ka area penetrate karne mein nakam hoti hai aur EMA 200 H4 se reject hone ki tasdeeq hoti hai, to price mein kamzori ka imkaan hai jisme ke target EMA 12 H4 line tak hoga, phir EMA 36 H4 tak ja sakta hai. Iss area mein buyers momentum ka intezaar kar sakte hain ke wo wapas aaye aur phir se buy positions open karein. GBP/JPY pair mein Jumay ke roz kaafi bara izafa dekhne ko mila, jahan yeh 191.80s ke aas paas trade kar raha tha, jo aik quarter percentage point se zyada ka surge tha. Yeh izafa kuch aham macroeconomic data aur events ke nateeja mein aaya jo dono currencies par musbat asar dal rahe thay. UK ke Office for National Statistics (ONS) ke data ke mutabiq, August mein UK retail sales 1.0% barh gayi, jo umeed se zyada thi (0.4%) aur July ke 0.5% ke izafay se bhi zyada thi. Is ka matlab hai ke UK ke shoppers ab bhi ziada kharcha kar rahe hain bawajood is ke ke borrowing costs ziada hain, jo ke prices par upward pressure dal sakta hai aur inflation ko barha sakta hai. Yeh surat-e-haal Bank of England (BoE) ko interest rates cut karne se rokk sakti hai, aur usay 5.0% ke high rate ko barqarar rakhna parega taake foreign capital inflows ke zariye pound ko support mil sake. Bank of England ka apni September meeting mein interest rates ko hold par rakhne ka faisla (8-to-1 vote ke sath) sterling ko mazeed support de raha hai. Yeh faisla baqi central banks ke rate cuts ke baraks tha, jo ke global inflationary pressures ke kam honay par adopt kiye gaye hain. Iske ilawa, BoE ke policymaker Catherine Mann ke comments jo ke zyadatar restrictions ko baray arsay tak barqarar rakhne

jab 192.80 par khula, tab se prices neeche ja rahi thi. Lekin sellers ka zor itna bara nahi tha, jo ke chhoti movements se zahir hota hai, aur price neeche ki taraf chal rahi thi. 192.41 ka resistance, jo Thursday ko negative movement ko rok raha tha, ab toot gaya hai. Weakness neeche ki taraf chalne ki koshish kar rahi thi, agla maqsad support 191.85 ko break karna tha, jo EMA 200 H1 se cross ho raha tha. Is level par bounce dekhne ko mila, aur price iss area ko break karne mein nakam ho gayi, jisse price ulta chali aur mazid mazboot ho gayi. Daily open ko successfully cross kar liya gaya, aur price resistance 193.71 ke breakout ke sath aur upar chali gayi. Issi waqt, EMA 12 aur EMA 36 H1 ne bhi EMA 200 H1 ke upar ek upside crossover banaya, jis se is time frame mein bullish trend confirm ho gaya. Price apni mazbooti ko barqarar rakhte hue 195.17 ke resistance tak pohnchi, jahan dobara resistance mila. Price isko break karne ki koshish karti rahi, lekin buyers ka zor kam hone laga, jisse ye koshish nakam rahi. Market ke band hone tak price resistance ke range mein chalti rahi, aur closing 195.04 par hui. Daily bullish candle kaafi acha bana jo Friday ke trading ke natayij ke mutabiq tha, aur Thursday ke opposite movement ko zahir karta hai. Price ne EMA 200 daily ko cross kar ke upar chalna shuru kiya, jab ke Thursday ko sellers ne price ko EMA 200 daily tak neeche dhakel diya tha. EMA ke sahare price mazid mazboot hui aur us ne daily resistance 195.96 ko dobara test karne ka mauqa banaya. Is hafte ka movement tight raha, aur range zyada bara nahi tha. Lagta hai buyers price ko upar dhakelne ki koshish kar rahe hain aur unho ne EMA 200 daily ko cross kar lia hai, lekin abhi price us ke aas paas hai. Ye bullish price EMA 12 aur EMA 36 daily ke upward crossover se confirm hoti hai, lekin ye abhi bhi EMA 200 daily ke neeche hain. Agar price 195.96 ka resistance successfully break kar leti hai, to bullish trend confirm ho jayega, aur price ka agla maqasad 202.00 ka level

Asian session ke dauran, price daily open aur 191.01 ke qareeb resistance ke darmiyan fluctuate karti rahi, lekin buyers ko yeh level break karne mein mushkil hui. Yeh resistance EMA 200 ke qareeb H1 chart par closely aligned tha. Jab buyers yeh level cross nahi kar sake, to price waapis daily open ki taraf gir gayi. Yeh thori der ke liye daily open aur EMA 633 ko H1 timeframe par cross karke neeche chali gayi, magar 189.30 ke area ke qareeb support mil gaya aur wapas upar bounce ki. Ab price dobara 191.01 resistance level ko retest kar rahi hai. EMA 200 H1 ke qareeb hone ke bawajood, trend ab tak unclear hai. H1 par EMA 12 aur EMA 36 downward slope dikhate hain, jo ke ek negative trend ka ishara hai, aur yeh trend pichle Jumme se chala aa raha hai. Jumma ke session mein ek extreme reversal dekha gaya jab price ne rally karne ki koshish ki lekin 195.94 ke high ko touch karne ke baad kamzor ho gayi. Phir price tezi se neeche gir gayi, H1 timeframe par EMA 200 aur EMA 633 ko cross karte hue. Yeh bearish momentum Monday ke trading session tak qaim raha, jahan sellers dominate karte rahe. Abhi ke liye, price ki position H1 chart par EMA 200 ke qareeb hai, jo trend mein uncertainty paida kar rahi hai. Agar buyers is area par ek strong bullish candle banane mein kamyab ho jate hain, to yeh ek bullish breakout ka potential signal de sakti hai.
Jumma ke significant weakness ne market par khaas asar dala, jab price EMA 200 ke upar daily timeframe par move karne ke baad 196.01 resistance level par reject ho gayi. Phir price 192.35 resistance aur EMA 200 daily level ke neeche gir gayi. High aur low 195.94 aur 189.98 par bane. Halankeh price EMA 200 ke neeche daily chart par hai, trend ab tak bearish hai. Daily chart par EMA 12 aur EMA 36 dono EMA 200 ke neeche flat ho chuke hain, jo ke bearish outlook ko mazid reinforce kar rahe hain.

Agar price pichle Jumme ke low ko break karti hai, to yeh confirm karega ke price EMA 200 daily level ke neeche reh rahi hai, jo ke mazeed girawat ka signal de sakti hai, aur price 187.68 daily support level tak ja sakti hai. Lekin agar buyers 190.18 ke upar price ko qaim rakhne mein kamyab hote hain, to price ko EMA 200 daily level ki taraf push karne ka chance hai aur 192.84 area ko test kiya ja sakta hai, jo mazeed bullish movement ka rasta khol sakta hai.

GBP/JPY ke H1 time frame par, currency pair ne pichlay kuch dinon mein ek mazboot upward trend dikhaya hai. Price action ne musalsal ooper ki taraf move kiya hai, jo ke market mein strong bullish sentiment ka izhar kar raha hai. Filhal, pair 195.04 ke aas paas trade kar raha hai, jo yeh dikhata hai ke pound yen ke muqable mein acha perform kar raha hai. Is upward movement ko technical aur shayad fundamental factors ka combination support kar raha hai, jo is waqt ke trend ko traders ke liye ahmiyat dekhne ke qabil banata hai.Ek key technical signal jo bullish outlook ko mazid reinforce kar raha hai, woh moving average lines ki position hai. Khaaskar 50-period aur 100-period moving averages current price ke neeche position mein hain, jo is ongoing uptrend ki taqat ko confirm karta hai. Jab price in key moving averages ke ooper hota hai, to yeh is baat ka ishara hota hai ke buyers ka market par control hai, aur yeh is baat ki dalalat karta hai ke near term mein market ooper jaari rahegi. Yeh ek classic indicator hota hai bullish market ka, jo traders ko upward momentum par confidence deta hai.Is ke ilawa, price support levels ko bhi respect kar raha hai, jahan har pullback ko renewed buying pressure se mil raha hai. Yeh ek series of higher lows banata hai, jo ek aur signal hai ek strong bullish trend ka. Agar pair apni upward trajectory maintain karta hai, to traders agla key resistance level dekh sakte hain, jo 196.00 ke aas paas ho sakta hai. Agar price is level ke ooper break karta hai, to yeh GBP/JPY pair ke mazeed gains ki dalalat karega, aur un buyers ke liye zyada buying opportunities open kar sakta hai jo is momentum se faida uthana chahte hain. Magar, kisi bhi currency pair ki tarah, yeh zaroori hai ke market ko asar andaz karne wale external factors par bhi nazar rakhi jaye, jaise ke economic data releases, geopolitical events, ya central bank decisions. Yeh factors ya to current trend ko mazid mazboot kar sakte hain ya usay kamzor bana sakte hain, is liye traders ko apni strategies ko accordingly adjust karne ke liye tayar rehna chahiye. Kul mila kar, GBP/JPY pair H1 time frame par ek strong bullish trend dikha raha hai, jahan price filhal 195.04 ke aas paas trade kar raha hai. Moving averages jo price ke neeche hain, uptrend ko confirm kar rahe hain, aur traders ko market ko dekhte rehna chahiye taake resistance tests aur koi bhi fundamental factors ka asar observe kiya ja sake jo aane wali movement par asar daal sakte hain.

**GBP/JPY Market Analysis**

In the recent trading session for GBP/JPY, we observed notable market behavior following yesterday's upward movement. After a productive rally, there was a clear indication of a price correction. Buyers struggled to maintain momentum, leading to a consolidation phase where the price is currently hovering around three moving averages. As of now, the price is attempting to move downward but has yet to breach the upper moving average, positioned at 193.20.

The technical indicators present a mixed picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows a slight downward bias, though the signal remains weak, suggesting indecision in the market. Meanwhile, the Stochastic Oscillator indicates a mild upward direction, hinting at potential support for the price at this level. It’s prudent to observe whether the price can decisively break below the upper moving average, which may signal a shift in momentum. There is a possibility that we are witnessing the onset of a downward trend.

Simultaneously, the RSI reflects a nearly neutral stance with a slight upward inclination, while the Stochastic is moving downward. This divergence suggests that market participants are uncertain about the next direction. There is potential for continued growth, particularly towards the upper Bollinger Band, currently at 195.46. If the price reaches this level, a bounce back downward could occur.

Conversely, should the price decline and move below the middle Bollinger Band, situated at 193.91, we may observe a subsequent drop towards resistance levels around 194.38. Traders should note that the nearest critical range for potential impulsive movements lies between 194.40 and 194.27, where significant liquidity is likely to be present.

Interests for a downward movement appear to be capped by the daily support level at 194.05, where a rebound could signal a return to bullish momentum. Alternatively, if the price falls further, it might test lower support levels at 193.93.

Analyzing the moving averages with periods of 13 and 50, we see an overall upward trend. Given the current indicators and market conditions, it seems wise to focus on long positions today. Traders should remain vigilant and adapt their strategies based on real-time price action and additional market developments. As we navigate through these fluctuations, clarity will emerge regarding the direction of GBP/JPY in the near term.

Asian session ke dauran, price daily open aur 191.01 ke qareeb resistance ke darmiyan fluctuate karti rahi, lekin buyers ko yeh level break karne mein mushkil hui. Yeh resistance EMA 200 ke qareeb H1 chart par closely aligned tha. Jab buyers yeh level cross nahi kar sake, to price waapis daily open ki taraf gir gayi. Yeh thori der ke liye daily open aur EMA 633 ko H1 timeframe par cross karke neeche chali gayi, magar 189.30 ke area ke qareeb support mil gaya aur wapas upar bounce ki. Ab price dobara 191.01 resistance level ko retest kar rahi hai. EMA 200 H1 ke qareeb hone ke bawajood, trend ab tak unclear hai. H1 par EMA 12 aur EMA 36 downward slope dikhate hain, jo ke ek negative trend ka ishara hai, aur yeh trend pichle Jumme se chala aa raha hai. Jumma ke session mein ek extreme reversal dekha gaya jab price ne rally karne ki koshish ki lekin 195.94 ke high ko touch karne ke baad kamzor ho gayi. Phir price tezi se neeche gir gayi, H1 timeframe par EMA 200 aur EMA 633 ko cross karte hue. Yeh bearish momentum Monday ke trading session tak qaim raha, jahan sellers dominate karte rahe. Abhi ke liye, price ki position H1 chart par EMA 200 ke qareeb hai, jo trend mein uncertainty paida kar rahi hai. Agar buyers is area par ek strong bullish candle banane mein kamyab ho jate hain, to yeh ek bullish breakout ka potential signal de sakti hai.
Jumma ke significant weakness ne market par khaas asar dala, jab price EMA 200 ke upar daily timeframe par move karne ke baad 196.01 resistance level par reject ho gayi. Phir price 192.35 resistance aur EMA 200 daily level ke neeche gir gayi. High aur low 195.94 aur 189.98 par bane. Halankeh price EMA 200 ke neeche daily chart par hai, trend ab tak bearish hai. Daily chart par EMA 12 aur EMA 36 dono EMA 200 ke neeche flat ho chuke hain, jo ke bearish outlook ko mazid reinforce kar rahe hain.

Agar price pichle Jumme ke low ko break karti hai, to yeh confirm karega ke price EMA 200 daily level ke neeche reh rahi hai, jo ke mazeed girawat ka signal de sakti hai, aur price 187.68 daily support level tak ja sakti hai. Lekin agar buyers 190.18 ke upar price ko qaim rakhne mein kamyab hote hain, to price ko EMA 200 daily level ki taraf push karne ka chance hai aur 192.84 area ko test kiya ja sakta hai, jo mazeed bullish movement ka rasta khol sakta hai

Asian session ke dauran, price daily open aur 191.01 ke qareeb resistance ke darmiyan fluctuate karti rahi, lekin buyers ko yeh level break karne mein mushkil hui. Yeh resistance EMA 200 ke qareeb H1 chart par closely aligned tha. Jab buyers yeh level cross nahi kar sake, to price waapis daily open ki taraf gir gayi. Yeh thori der ke liye daily open aur EMA 633 ko H1 timeframe par cross karke neeche chali gayi, magar 189.30 ke area ke qareeb support mil gaya aur wapas upar bounce ki. Ab price dobara 191.01 resistance level ko retest kar rahi hai. EMA 200 H1 ke qareeb hone ke bawajood, trend ab tak unclear hai. H1 par EMA 12 aur EMA 36 downward slope dikhate hain, jo ke ek negative trend ka ishara hai, aur yeh trend pichle Jumme se chala aa raha hai. Jumma ke session mein ek extreme reversal dekha gaya jab price ne rally karne ki koshish ki lekin 195.94 ke high ko touch karne ke baad kamzor ho gayi. Phir price tezi se neeche gir gayi, H1 timeframe par EMA 200 aur EMA 633 ko cross karte hue. Yeh bearish momentum Monday ke trading session tak qaim raha, jahan sellers dominate karte rahe. Abhi ke liye, price ki position H1 chart par EMA 200 ke qareeb hai, jo trend mein uncertainty paida kar rahi hai. Agar buyers is area par ek strong bullish candle banane mein kamyab ho jate hain, to yeh ek bullish breakout ka potential signal de sakti hai. Jumma ke significant weakness ne market par khaas asar dala, jab price EMA 200 ke upar daily timeframe par move karne ke baad 196.01 resistance level par reject ho gayi. Phir price 192.35 resistance aur EMA 200 daily level ke neeche gir gayi. High aur low 195.94 aur 189.98 par bane. Halankeh price EMA 200 ke neeche daily chart par hai, trend ab tak bearish hai. Daily chart par EMA 12 aur EMA 36 dono EMA 200 ke neeche flat ho chuke hain, jo ke bearish outlook ko mazid reinforce kar rahe hain.

Agar price pichle Jumme ke low ko break karti hai, to yeh confirm karega ke price EMA 200 daily level ke neeche reh rahi hai, jo ke mazeed girawat ka signal de sakti hai, aur price 187.68 daily support level tak ja sakti hai. Lekin agar buyers 190.18 ke upar price ko qaim rakhne mein kamyab hote hain, to price ko EMA 200 daily level ki taraf push karne ka chance hai aur 192.84 area ko test kiya ja sakta hai, jo mazeed bullish movement ka rasta khol sakta hai.

GBP/JPY Market Analysis

Daily timeframe ke charts par price movements ka tajziya karte hue dekha ja sakta hai ke GBPJPY pair ka trend pichlay mahine ke trading session mein musalsal bullish aur bearish trends ke darmiyan ghoomta raha, aur yeh range kaafi wide thi. Pichlay hafte ke trading session mein bhi significant range ke sath izafa hua, lekin weekend ke end par price ne achanak shiddat se girawat dekhi. Halankeh Monday ki raat ko price ne 189.54 level tak girne ki koshish ki, lekin ab tak market mein price movement mein bullish potential nazar aa raha hai.

GBPJPY market ki movement ab bhi Simple Moving Average (SMA) 60 aur 150 indicators ke ooper aram se chal rahi hai. Hafte ke aaghaz mein trading session ke dauran, price par sellers ka pressure nazar aya, aur yeh consistently opening price level se neeche move karta raha jo pichlay hafte ke aaghaz par tha. Market ki haalat ko dekhtay huay aaj dopahar tak, lagta hai ke ab bhi trend ke direction ke mutabiq transactions karna mumkin hai, jo pichlay kuch hafton se dekhay gaye izafay ko continue kar sakti hai.

Pichlay tajziya ki tarah, yeh dekhna faidemand hoga ke chart par lagaye gaye indicators kya signals show karte hain. Dekha ja sakta hai ke Relative Strength Index (14) ka Lime Line barhta hua 70 ke qareeb pohanch raha hai, jo ek strong bullish market condition ka ishara hai. Histogram bar jo pehle zero level ke neeche tha, ab phir se barh raha hai aur zero level ke ooper position mein hai, sath hi MACD ka yellow dotted signal line bhi upward direction mein move karta nazar aa raha hai.

GBPJPY

GBP/JPY pair ne Tuesday ko aik halka rebound dekha, jo 194.00 ke upar pohanch gaya jabke British pound ne Japanese yen ke muqable mein mazid taqat hasil ki. Yeh upward movement zyada ter kamzor-than-expected Japanese wage data ki wajah se hui, jo ke August ke liye aayi aur jis ne Bank of Japan ke potential interest rate hike ke chances ko kamzor kar diya. Ministry of Economy ne report kiya ke Japanese labor force cash income 3.0% barhi year-on-year, jo ke economists ke 3.1% ke forecast se kam thi aur July ke revised 3.4% se bhi neeche thi. Wage growth ke ye kam numbers ek halki deflationary effect paida karte hain, jo ke Bank of Japan ke interest rates ko unke relatively low 0.25% level par rakhnay ke chances ko barhata hai. Low interest rates ka lambe arsay tak barqarar rehna foreign capital inflows ko discourage karta hai, jis se yen ki demand kam hoti hai aur currency depreciation ka sabab banti hai. In factors ne GBP/JPY pair ki thodi si upward movement mein hissa dala.
Doosri taraf, pound ko bhi support mila jab Bank of England ke chief economist Hugh Bailey ne future mein central bank ke interest rate cuts ke khilaf ehtiyaat baratne ka mashwara diya. Yeh bayaan GBP/JPY pair ko apni gains ko maintain karne mein madadgar sabit hua, jabke pehle ke aik sell-off se pair ne thodi recovery ki thi jo Governor Andrew Bailey ke ziyada ya frequent interest rate cuts ke isharaat ki wajah se aaya tha.

GBP/JPY pair ne pichle 10 dinon mein aik strong upward rally dikhayi, jo ke fresh two-month high 195.95 par pohanch gaya jabke market ne 183.70 ke support level se strong recovery ki thi. Market ne successfully 200-day simple moving average (SMA) aur 195.00 ka level breach kiya, jo future mein mazid upward momentum ka raasta dikha raha hai. Technical tor par, Stochastic indicator overbought zone mein hai, jo potential overbought conditions ko indicate karta hai. Halankeh, RSI bhi 70 level ke upar break karne ki koshish mein hai, jo yeh dikhata hai ke bulls ka upper hand ho sakta hai. Agar bullish momentum barhta hai, toh pair agle resistance levels ko challenge kar sakta hai, jaise ke 199.40 aur 201.60.

Yen ko ab bhi bohot kamzor samjha ja raha hai, kyun ke uski depreciation se imported goods Japanese consumers ke liye mehngi hoti ja rahi hain. Is waja se leading currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura ne Monday ko aik "verbal intervention" di, aur traders ko speculative behavior se bachne ki warning di.

GBP/JPY D1 time frame par hum ne dekha ke bulls ki taraf se aik significant pullback aaya hai, jiss se market 195.14 level tak neeche aa gayi hai. Ye retracement traders ki tawajjo ka markaz bana hai, kyun ke ye market ke dynamics mein tabdeeli ka ishara kar raha hai. Jab ke pehle bulls ne khaasi taqat dikhayi thi, ye recent pullback yeh dikhata hai ke sellers, yaani bears, ab momentum hasil kar rahe hain, jiss se wo faida utha rahe hain aur current market levels par value dekh rahe hain. Sellers ka momentum barhta nazar aa raha hai, jo ke sentiment mein tabdeeli ka ishara hai, aur ye short-term mein pair ke direction ko mutasir kar sakti hai.
GBP/JPY ka current movement towards 195.14 ek correction ko zahir karta hai jo ke ek lambi bullish activity ke baad aayi hai. Ye level ek potential support zone ka kaam kar raha hai, jahan traders market ke agle move ko carefully evaluate kar rahe hain. Barhti hui selling pressure yeh dikhati hai ke pehle jo bullish forces market mein dominant the, wo filhal ek temporary pause le rahe hain, jiss se sellers recent gains se faida utha rahe hain aur price ko neeche ki taraf le ja rahe hain.
Lekin yeh pullback zaroori nahi ke broader bullish trend ke khatam hone ka signal ho. Ye sirf ek healthy market correction ho sakti hai, jahan bulls temporarily back seat le rahe hain, aur market ko reset hone de rahe hain taake dobara upward momentum resume ho sake. Jab pair 195.14 level ke qareeb hoti hai, toh ye possibility hai ke bullish forces dobara control le sakti hain, khaaskar agar buyers is level ko ek buying opportunity ke taur par dekhein, taake price ko dobara upar push kar sakein.
Technical perspective se dekha jaye, toh key indicators jaise ke Relative Strength Index (RSI) aur moving averages yeh dikhate hain ke market filhal ek temporary oversold condition mein hai, jiss se rebound ka signal mil sakta hai. Agar price 195.14 ke qareeb support find kar leti hai aur is level ke upar hold karti hai, toh yeh signal hoga ke bullish sentiment abhi bhi mazboot hai, aur hum dobara pair mein rally dekh sakte hain. Saath hi saath, fundamental factors bhi dekhne chahiye. Agar UK se positive economic data aata hai, jaise ke robust employment figures, inflation control, ya central bank commentary, toh ye pound ko support de sakta hai aur bulls ko dobara control mein la sakta hai. Dusri taraf, agar koi economic uncertainty ya negative data aati hai, toh bears ko pair ko aur neeche push karne ka mauqa mil sakta hai. Jab ke recent pullback 195.14 tak sellers ki barhti hui momentum ka ishara de raha hai, ye zaroori nahi ke GBP/JPY ke bullish trend ka end ho. Market iss waqt ek key level par hai, aur traders ko ghor se dekhna chahiye ke kya bulls is area ko defend kar ke control dobara le sakte hain. Agar aisa hota hai, toh hum dobara bullish dominance dekh sakte hain, lekin agar bears price ko aur neeche push karte hain, toh ek deeper correction ka ishara ho sakta hai.

GBP/JPY) ne hal hi mein hui girawat ke baad ek hairan kun wapsi ki hai. Thursday ke trading session mein pound ne wapas 203.00 ka aham mark paar kiya, aur kabhi kabhi 204.00 tak bhi pahunch gaya. Yeh turnaround Japanese authorities ki mudakhlat ke andazay ke darmiyan aaya. Halanki Bank of Japan (BOJ) aur Ministry of Finance (MOF) ne apni mudakhlat ka rasmi taur par tasdeeq nahi ki, magar BOJ ke mali operations ka surge forecasts ke muqablay mein unki stance mein tabdeeli ka ishara de raha hai. Kamzor hoti hui yen ko defend karna MOF ke liye mazeed mehnga pad raha hai. Wahin, maqami economic data releases milay julay signals de rahi hain. Thursday ko release hui UK ki average data ne expectations ko meet kiya, magar market forecasts predict kar rahe hain ke aayan wali British retail sales mein 0.4% ka decline hoga, jo pehlay ke 2.9% increase ke mukable mein kaafi baray contrast mein hai. Japan ki national CPI inflation figures bhi Friday ko release hongi. Halanki inflation pehle ke release se zyada hone ki umeed hai, yeh shayad BOJ ko apni ultra-loose monetary policy se hattne par majboor na kar sake. Yeh, aur yen ki pehlay se hi kamzor position doosri baray currencies ke muqable mein, Japanese currency ke mazeed depreciation ko suggest karte hain. Technical indicators aik zyada complex picture paint kar rahe hain. "Peacock Fish Index" (maybe GBP/JPY ke liye) ne Thursday ko 202.50 ke qareeb support find kiya, jo ek potential bounce ka ishara hai. Magar, price apni 200-hour moving average (EMA) of 204.82 ke niche hai, jo ager selling pressure resume hoti hai toh mazeed decline ka room suggest karta hai. Daily chart kuch umeed deti hai, price 50-day moving average of 201.38 ke upar hold karti hui hai. Mazeed, long-term 200-day moving average of 192.18 se kafi upar bids (offers to buy) hain, jo underlying buying interest ko indicate karti hain. Nateejatan, GBP/JPY ek volatile phase mein hai. Halanki pound ne kuch resilience dikhayi hai, yen ki kamzori aur Japanese authorities ki potential intervention pair ke future direction par uncertainty daalti hain. Aanay walay dino mein Friday keClick image for larger version

GBP/JPY Technical Forecast aur Trading Strategies

British Pound aur Japanese Yen (GBP/JPY) currency pair, jo "cross pair" kehlata hai kyunki ye US Dollar ko bypass karta hai, European trading session mein holding pattern mein phasa hua hai. Yeh pair week ke apne highest point ke paas hai. Toh yeh action kyun ho raha hai? GBP/JPY ke recent surge ka primary factor Japanese Yen ki kamzori hai. Yen kuch arsay se pressure mein hai, aur iski depreciation GBP/JPY ke gains ko fuel kar rahi hai. Magar kahani sirf ek kamzor Yen tak nahi rukti. British Pound bhi recent UK elections ke baad apni strength dikha raha hai, jo currency mein ek overall strength ka ehsaas paida kar raha hai. Iske ilawa, US Dollar ki current weakness bhi GBP/JPY ke liye further support provide kar rahi hai. Magar, ek pareshani hai.

Market abhi aanay wali US employment data par focus kar raha hai, jo ke 3:30 PM (shayad aapki local time) par release hogi. Ye ek crucial economic data point hai jo currency market mein bohot zyada turbulence paida kar sakti hai. Aage dekhtay hue, mujhe lagta hai ke GBP/JPY mein ek potential correction ho sakta hai, yaani recent rise ke baad ek temporary decline. Magar, mera main prediction hai ke current uptrend continue rahega. Yahan do possible scenarios hain jo consider kiye ja sakte hain:

Agar GBP/JPY critical support level 204.65 se upar rehti hai, toh yeh uptrend ko hold karne ka ishara hai. Is case mein, agar pair 204.65 se upar jaye, toh main buy karne par ghour karunga, with potential targets:
- **206.45**
- **206.95** ya us se bhi upar.

Dusri taraf, agar GBP/JPY critical support level 204.65 se neeche break karti hai, toh yeh ek consolidation period ka ishara de sakta hai jahan price narrow range mein fluctuate kar sakti hai ya decline kar sakti hai. Is scenario mein, pair 204.15 tak aur potentially 203.75 tak gir sakti hai.

Yeh yaad rakhna zaroori hai ke yeh sirf potential trajectories hain, aur GBP/JPY ka actual direction aakhir kar market ke US employment data aur doosray aanay walay economic events par reaction par depend karega. Stay tuned, kyunki yeh situation tezi se unfold ho sakti hai.