USD/JPY ایکسچینج ریٹ: آج کی قیمت اور مارکیٹ تجزیہ

"USD/JPY H1 Timeframe Analysis:
Is waqt USD/JPY ka price 156.70 par trade kar raha hai. Chart ke mutabiq price apne key support aur resistance levels ke kareeb hai, jo agle price movement ke liye bohot important hain.
Resistance Levels:

1. 157.84 – Yeh ek strong resistance level hai, jahan se price pehle reject ho chuka hai. Agar price is level ko todta hai, to agla resistance 157.99 ke kareeb ho sakta hai.
2. 157.99 – Yeh high resistance zone hai jo bullish breakout ke liye zaruri hai. Agar yeh level tod diya gaya to USD/JPY ka price aur tez ho sakta hai.

Support Levels:

1. 156.21 – Yeh ek crucial support level hai. Agar price is level ke niche jata hai, to selling pressure barh sakta hai aur price 154.35 tak gir sakta hai.
2. 154.35 – Yeh agla major support hai jo December ke pehle price action ke dauran test hua tha.

Moving Averages:
Price ne 50-period Moving Average (blue line) aur 200-period Moving Average (pink line) ke niche breakout diya hai. Yeh bearish trend ka signal hai. Agar price in moving averages ke upar wapas nahi jata, to downward trend sustain kar sakta hai.
RSI Analysis:
RSI ka current value 42 hai, jo neutral zone mein hai lekin downward momentum dikhata hai. Agar RSI 30 ke kareeb jata hai, to oversold conditions develop ho sakti hain, jo short-term buying ka signal de sakti hain.
Possible Scenarios:

• Bullish Scenario: Agar price 157.84 ka resistance todta hai, to agla target 157.99 ho sakta hai. Yeh breakout buyers ke liye ek strong signal hoga.
• Bearish Scenario: Agar price 156.21 ke niche break karta hai, to selling ka pressure barh sakta hai aur agla target 154.35 ho sakta hai.
• Conclusion:

Aap apne trades inhi levels ko dekhte hue plan karein aur market ka direction samajhne ke liye price action aur RSI par focus karein. Trading ke dauran risk management ka zaroor khayal rakhein."

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

USDJPY Consolidation Mode Mein Hai, jo Break ho Sakta Hai

Jabke global markets naye saal ke baad reopen kar rahe hain, Japanese markets chhutti ke sabab se band hain. Aaj ka economic calendar kaafi halka hai, Japanese data releases nahi hain aur sirf ek US tier event – unemployment claims – hai. European session me USD/JPY abhi 157.12 par trade kar raha hai, jo din ka 0.12% neeche hai. Aaj yen ke liye kaafi quiet din hone ki umeed hai.

December yen ke liye muskil raha
December me yen ne US dollar ke khilaf 11% ka bara nuqsan dekha. Tuesday ko yen 158.07 per dollar tak gir gaya, jo July ke shuruati dinon ke baad ka sabse lowest level hai. Investors is baat par nervous hain ke Tokyo currency markets me intervene kar sakta hai yen ke tezi se girte daam ko roknay ke liye. Kya 160 level Japanese authorities ke liye ek red line hai?

Japan ka Manufacturing PMI aur optimism
Is haftay ke shuru me, Japan ka Manufacturing PMI revise hoke 49.6 par aaya, jo pehle ke 49.5 se zyada hai aur November ke 49.0 ke upar hai. Yeh manufacturing activity me chhate straight deceleration ko dikhata hai lekin September ke baad ka sabse uncha level hai. Manufacturers ka sentiment mazboot tha, semiconductor aur auto markets ke behtari ki umeed ke sath, jo pichle chand mahinon se bohot mushkilein dekh chuke hain.

Kya BoJ January me rate hike karega?
Bank of Japan aksar apne intentions market ke samne nahi rakhta. Ek wajah yeh hai ke central bank speculators ko apne haath dikhana nahi chahta, jo yen ke tezi se hote swings ka faida uthana chahte hain. BoJ ke December meeting ke summary of opinions ne kuch insights diye hain, jisme kuch policymakers ne rate hike ke haq me argument diya.

Summary me dikhaya gaya ke nine-member board me rate policy par ek division hai. Hawkish members ka kehna hai ke inflation steady hai aur yen gir raha hai, jo rate hike ke liye conditions ko support karta hai. Doves ka kehna hai ke wage growth abhi inflation ke piche hai. Governor Ueda faisla karnay wali vote ho sakte hain, aur January 24 meeting tak unke har lafz ka investors ko intezar rahega.

Japanese Yen ka pressure aur US Dollar ka dominance
USD/JPY naye saal ki chhuttiyon ke doran $156 aur $158 ke darmiyan range-bound hai. Federal Reserve ke December policy meeting ke hawkish comments ne US dollar ko mazboot rakha, jo December me USD/JPY ko upar le gaya. US aur Japan ke darmiyan interest rate differential pair ko support kar raha hai. Jabke Japanese markets band hain, focus global factors par hai.

Is haftay ka US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI release economic trends ke bare me insights dega, jo USD/JPY pair ko impact kar sakta hai. Bank of Japan ke Governor Kazuo Ueda ke 2% inflation target achieve karne ke comments ne policy changes ke speculation ko barhawa diya hai.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis – Consolidations
4-hour chart dikhata hai ke USD/JPY ne December ke shuru me inverted head-and-shoulders pattern form kiya aur rally karta raha. Abhi pair $156 aur $158 ke darmiyan consolidate kar raha hai, aglay direction ka intezar karte huye. Yeh price consolidation ek upside breakout ki sambhavana ko mazboot karta hai. Agar $158 ke upar breakout hota hai, to pair $161.70 level ki taraf barh sakta hai.

USD/JPY Ka Tajzia:
Fundamental Update:
Yen ke price ko abhi bhi challenges ka samna hai, jahan Bank of Japan ki policy, kamzor economic data, aur global risk sentiment ke badalte mausam ne iski weakness ko barqarar rakha hai. USD/JPY ka future ab geopolitics, US economic data, aur Federal Reserve ke decisions par mabni hai. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell ki hawkish baatein aur mazboot US economic report ne traders ki aggressive policy easing ki umeedon ko tor diya hai, jo USD ki taqat ko mazid barhawa de raha hai.
H4 Chart Analysis:
USD/JPY 157.90 ke aham level ke qareeb hai, jo short-term trend ke liye critical point ban gaya hai. Agar price is level ko todta hai, toh pair 158.00 ka target kar sakta hai, jo Fibonacci 61.8% extension ke saath align karta hai. Agla resistance 158.90 ke qareeb hai, jo mazid bullish action ke liye zaroori point ho sakta hai. Agar bullish momentum barqarar raha, toh pair 160.00 ke mark ko bhi retest kar sakta hai.
Traders ko technical aur fundamental analysis ko combine karte hue support aur resistance levels par focus karna chahiye taake forex market ke is dynamic mahal mein behtareen decisions liye ja sakein.

USD/JPY Ka Tajzia:
Fundamental Update:
Yen ke price ko abhi bhi challenges ka samna hai, jahan Bank of Japan ki policy, kamzor economic data, aur global risk sentiment ke badalte mausam ne iski weakness ko barqarar rakha hai. USD/JPY ka future ab geopolitics, US economic data, aur Federal Reserve ke decisions par mabni hai. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell ki hawkish baatein aur mazboot US economic report ne traders ki aggressive policy easing ki umeedon ko tor diya hai, jo USD ki taqat ko mazid barhawa de raha hai.
H4 Chart Analysis:
USD/JPY 157.90 ke aham level ke qareeb hai, jo short-term trend ke liye critical point ban gaya hai. Agar price is level ko todta hai, toh pair 158.00 ka target kar sakta hai, jo Fibonacci 61.8% extension ke saath align karta hai. Agla resistance 158.90 ke qareeb hai, jo mazid bullish action ke liye zaroori point ho sakta hai. Agar bullish momentum barqarar raha, toh pair 160.00 ke mark ko bhi retest kar sakta hai.
Traders ko technical aur fundamental analysis ko combine karte hue support aur resistance levels par focus karna chahiye taake forex market ke is dynamic mahal mein behtareen decisions liye ja sakein.
Technical Indicators:
Average Directional Index (ADX) ka girta hua level yeh batata hai ke bullish trend kamzor ho raha hai. Saath hi, Stochastic Oscillator apni overbought (OB) territory mein hai, jo market mein bearish breakout ke liye ek strong signal ban sakta hai.
Agar bears apni position barqarar rakhte hain, toh USD/JPY ko niche dhakel kar June 4, 2024 ke low 154.52 tak le ja sakte hain. Agar price 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) 153.63 tod leta hai, toh agla target 151.94-152.44 ka zone ho sakta hai.
Strategy:
Traders ko is waqt indicators par bariki se nazar rakhni chahiye, khas kar ADX aur Stochastic Oscillator par, kyun ke yeh bearish momentum ke mazeed izafa hone ka pata de sakte hain. Har decision lene se pehle support aur resistance levels ka achi tarah tajzia karein.

USD/JPY ka hourly chart ek bearish se bullish trend mein tabdeel hote dikhata hai, jo ke December ke shuru mein lows se ek tezi ke sath recovery ke zariye hua. November ke downtrend ne 150.520 level ke qareeb bottom banaya, jis ke baad pair ne upward trajectory shuru ki. Recent price action higher highs aur higher lows dikhata hai, jo ek strong uptrend ko confirm karta hai. Filhaal, pair 157.254 ke aas paas consolidate kar raha hai, jahan 158.595 resistance ka kaam kar raha hai, jo rally ko roknay wala ek aham level hai. 50-period moving average ne dynamic support ke taur par kaam kiya hai, jo bullish momentum ko maintain kar raha hai, kyun ke pullbacks consistently is level ko respect karte hain. Relative Strength Index (RSI) 49.81 par hai, jo market mein equilibrium yani tawazun dikhata hai aur yeh signal karta hai ke market faislay ke mod par hai. Saath hi, Money Flow Index (MFI) 38.531 par hai, jo reduced buying pressure dikhata hai aur batata hai ke sellers ahista ahista control le rahe hain. Pehle bullish surge ke dauran strong volume dekha gaya, jo price chart ke neeche volume spikes se zahir hai, magar recent consolidation diminishing momentum ko suggest karta hai. Agar bullish momentum barqarar rakhna hai, toh 158.595 resistance ke upar breakout zaroori hoga, jo price ko 160 ki taraf le ja sakta hai. Agar price 157.254 ke upar hold na kar saka ya 50-period moving average ke neeche gir gaya, toh price 155.365 ya isse neeche retrace kar sakta hai. Traders ko volume aur momentum indicators closely dekhne chahiye aur stop-loss orders ka istemal karna chahiye taake volatility ke waqt risk ko manage kiya ja sake.
Is haftay, US ke economic indicators jaise ke Chicago PMI aur Pending Home Sales ka market par koi khaas asar nahi hua.Yeh data aksar economic health ke bare mein insights deta hai, magar inka negligible effect dikhata hai ke slow aur sideways market mein trading kitni challenging ho sakti hai. USD/JPY traders ke liye is tarah ke market conditions ke mutabiq strategies adjust karna zaroori hai. Aane wale dino mein, mujhe umeed hai ke USD/JPY market 156.65 ko cross karega.Saath hi traders ko US ISM Manufacturing data ke release ke dauran news-driven strategies ka istemal karna chahiye. Volatility ko navigate karte waqt risk manage karna aur overleveraging se bachna bohot zaroori hai.

USD/JPY ka hourly chart dekhte hue, price is waqt 157.810 ke aas-paas consolidate kar raha hai. Yeh zone resistance aur support ke darmiyan hai, jahan price aage ki direction dhoondhne ki koshish kar raha hai. Chart par upar ka resistance 158.180 par hai, jo abhi tak price ke liye ek barrier ka kaam kar raha hai. Neeche ka support level 155.996 par hai, jo strong buying zone lag raha hai. Indicators ki baat karein toh MACD flat hai aur signal line ke kareeb hai, jo market ki momentum mein kami aur indecision ko show kar raha hai. Iska matlab yeh hai ke filhal market kisi significant move ke intezar mein hai. RSI (Relative Strength Index) 48.93 par hai, jo neutral zone mein hai. Na toh yeh overbought zone mein hai aur na hi oversold zone mein, jo is baat ki taraf ishara karta hai ke buyers aur sellers ke darmiyan balance barqarar hai.
Is consolidation phase ka matlab yeh hai ke market ek breakout ke liye tayar hai. Agar price 158.180 ka resistance todta hai, toh yeh bullish trend ko confirm karega, aur price agle levels tak ja sakta hai. Lekin agar price neeche girta hai aur 155.996 ka support todta hai, toh bearish trend dominate kar sakta hai.
Traders ke liye is waqt sabse behtareen strategy yeh hogi ke woh confirmation ka intezar karein. Agar price resistance todta hai, toh buy ka setup samjhein, lekin agar support break hota hai, toh sell karna behtar hoga. Stop-loss aur take-profit levels ka istemal zaroor karein, kyun ke yeh volatility ke waqt zaroori hota hai.
Aapki strategy is setup ke liye kya hogi? Kya aap breakout ka intezar karenge ya phir is consolidation zone mein trade karenge? Apni approach aur analysis share karein!"


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USD/JPY Daily Chart Analysis
Aaj hum USD/JPY ke daily chart ka tajziya karte hain. Chart kaafi clear signals de raha hai jo trading decisions mein madadgar ho sakte hain. Yahan par hum moving averages, RSI, aur Parabolic SAR ka use karte hue support aur resistance levels ka zikr karein ge. Chart ko dekhte huye, humein nazar aata hai ke price ka overall trend bullish hai, kyun ke 200-day moving average (yellow line) price ke neeche hai, aur price is se kaafi upar chal rahi hai. Iska matlab hai ke buyers kaafi strong hain aur price agay bhi barh sakti hai. 50-day moving average bhi upward slope dikhata hai, jo short-term bullish momentum ki taraf ishara kar raha hai. Ab support aur resistance levels ki baat karte hain. Current resistance zone 157.90 ke aas paas hai, jahan price kaafi dafa ruk gayi hai. Agar price is level ko todh de, to agla target 158.50 ho sakta hai. Neeche ki taraf, support level 156.50 ke kareeb nazar aata hai. Agar price neeche aati hai aur yeh level todhti hai, to price 155.00 tak gir sakti hai. Parabolic SAR dots, jo price candles ke neeche hain, yeh bhi confirm karte hain ke abhi tak trend bullish hai. Lekin agar yeh dots price ke upar aa jayein, to yeh reversal ka signal ho sakta hai. Isliye traders ko is indicator par nazar rakhni chahiye. RSI (Relative Strength Index) 62 ke level par hai, jo neutral se bullish zone mein hai. Lekin agar yeh 70 ke upar chala jaye, to price overbought zone mein aa sakti hai, aur wahan se reversal ka chance barh jata hai. Chart ka overall trend bullish hai, lekin resistance level par price ruk sakti hai ya reversal ho sakta hai. Safe trading ke liye support aur resistance levels ka khayal rakhein aur RSI aur Parabolic SAR ke signals ko follow karein. Hammesha risk management ka khayal rakhein!

USD/JPY pair Friday ke din underwhelming performance dikhata raha jahan uncertainty ne market sentiment ko dominate kiya. Bank of Japan ki taraf se rate hike ki possible timing aur pace ab tak clear nahi hui, jis wajah se Yen pressure mein raha. Japanese authorities ki verbal interventions aur weaker risk sentiment ke bawajood Yen ka safe-haven support sustain nahi kar saka. Issi dauran, USD ki consistent demand ne pair ko 158.10 ke qareeb stabilize rakha jo ki abhi bhi bearish pressure ke bawajood mazboot position mein hai. USD ki strength rising US Treasury yields aur Federal Reserve ke measured policy easing expectations ki wajah se barh rahi hai.San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly ke halia comments jo iss saal ek ya do additional rate cuts ke possibility ko economic conditions par dependent banate hain ne market speculation ko aur barhawa diya hai. USD ab do mahine ke peak par hai jo lower-yielding Yen ke against iska advantage barhata hai.Technically pichle hafte pair 156.50 support ke qareeb trade karta raha jabke 158.00 ke critical high ko test kiya.Agar price 158.50 ka significant level tod deta hai, toh psychologically important 160.00 tak bullish extension dekhne ko mil sakti hai. Wahan se bearish momentum dobara activate hone ka chance hai. Lekin agar price 156.00 ke neeche girta hai, toh yeh bearish reversal ka indication dega jahan 154.00 tak further downside target banega. MACD ka widening gap aur red histogram bars ka silsila ongoing downside momentum dikhata hai jabke moving averages critical resistance points ki tarah kaam karte hain jo price ko upward move karne se rok sakte hain. Fibonacci extension ke mutabiq agar price 158.66 ko breach karta hai, toh Japanese authorities ki taraf se fresh intervention ka risk barh jata hai. Dusri taraf, bearish control reestablish hone ke liye price ko 151.94-152.34 ke crucial zone ke neeche break karna hoga jo October 2022 ke high aur critical moving averages ko encompass karta hai.Aise conditions mein careful strategy aur timely decisions zaruri hain.

Trading Analysis - Market Trend aur Signal
Is chart par humein price action ka analysis karne ka moka milta hai. Candlesticks ke zariye market ka price movement dikh raha hai. Black candlesticks selling pressure ko dikhati hain, jabke white candlesticks buying pressure ka izhar karti hain.
Is chart mein do red lines hain jo moving averages ko dikhati hain. Yeh long-term aur short-term trends ka signal deti hain. Jab chhoti moving average (fast) badi moving average (slow) ke neeche ho, to yeh bearish signal hota hai. Jab yeh upar ho, to bullish signal milta hai.
Neeche wale portion mein humein MACD indicator dikhai deta hai. Yeh market ka momentum aur potential trend reversal ka signal deta hai. Red line (MACD line) aur signal line ke darmiyan cross hona bohot important hota hai. Agar MACD line signal line ko neeche se cross kare, to yeh buying signal hota hai, aur agar upar se kare, to selling signal hota hai.
Is chart mein dekha ja sakta hai ke price ek downtrend ke baad ab uptrend mein move kar raha hai. Moving averages bhi yeh confirm kar rahi hain, kyunke price in lines ke upar close ho raha hai. MACD ka histogram positive hai, jo bullish momentum ko dikhata hai.
Conclusion:
Yeh analysis dikhata hai ke market ab bullish zone mein hai aur price aur zyada barh sakta hai agar momentum continue kare. Traders is signal ko dekh kar long positions plan kar sakte hain, magar hamesha risk management ka khayal rakhein. Trading ka har faisla apni analysis aur market conditions ke mutabiq lein.

USD/JPY Forex Chart Analysis
USD/JPY ka 4-hour timeframe ka chart ek clear trend aur market sentiment dikhata hai. Parabolic SAR ke dots, jo price ke neeche hain, bullish trend ki taraf ishara karte hain. Jab dots price ke neeche hotay hain, iska matlab hota hai ke market mein upward momentum hai, aur yeh current scenario mein bhi dikh raha hai. Yeh indicator trend-following strategy ke liye kaafi helpful hota hai, aur filhal price stable growth ke saath move kar raha hai.
Chart par do moving averages bhi nazar aa rahi hain, jo price ka smooth average dikhati hain aur long-term aur short-term trends ko samajhne mein madad deti hain. Yeh dono orange lines, price ke neeche hain, jo is baat ka signal deti hain ke price apne averages se upar hai, aur yeh bullish continuation ki taraf ishara kar raha hai. Agar moving averages ka cross-over hota, to market ki direction change hone ka signal milta, lekin filhal yeh stable lag raha hai. Moving averages ka support bhi price ke liye strong lagta hai.
Neeche stochastic oscillator ka use kiya gaya hai jo price ke overbought aur oversold conditions ko dikhata hai. Is waqt stochastic oscillator 80 ke upar hai, jo overbought zone ko represent karta hai. Overbought ka matlab yeh hota hai ke price high level tak pohanch gaya hai, aur short-term correction ka imkaan ho sakta hai. Lekin overall, trend strong lag raha hai aur major reversal ka abhi koi clear signal nahi hai. Agar stochastic neeche ki taraf cross kare, to yeh bearish movement ka signal de sakta hai.
Aise scenarios mein, agar aap trading karte hain, to risk management aur stop-loss ka zaroor istimaal karein. Yeh chart strategy banane ke liye kaafi useful ho sakta hai, magar trading ke liye hamesha apne risk tolerance aur analysis ka khayal rakhein. Forex market bohot zyada volatile hoti hai, aur har decision carefully lena chahiye.

جنوری 6 2025 کو امریکی ڈالر/جاپانی ین کے لیے پیشن گوئی

امریکی ڈالر/جاپانی ین جوڑا مسلسل تیسرے دن 157.72 کی سطح سے نیچے مستحکم ہو رہا ہے۔ تاہم، یہ سطح 157.72–158.32 کی ہدف کی حد کی صرف نچلی حد کی نمائندگی کرتی ہے، جس سے یہ ظاہر ہوتا ہے کہ مزید ترقی آج یا کل بھی ہو سکتی ہے۔



اپنے نئے سال سے پہلے کے تجزیے میں، ہم نے بتایا کہ 24 جنوری کو بینک آف جاپان کی میٹنگ سے پہلے ین میں نمایاں حرکت کا امکان نہیں ہے۔ اگر ین جمعہ 10 جنوری کو امریکی لیبر مارکیٹ کے اعداد و شمار کے اجراء کے بعد لچکدار رہتا ہے، تو یہ تصدیق کرے گا۔ ہماری پیشن گوئی. موجودہ حالات میں، تجارتی فیصلوں میں بڑھتے ہوئے خطرات ہوتے ہیں۔ مارلن آسیلیٹر نیچے کی طرف اشارہ کر رہا ہے، تجویز کرتا ہے کہ 158.32 سے اوپر کسی بھی قیمت میں اضافہ غلط بریک آؤٹ ہونے کا بہت زیادہ امکان ہے۔

ایچ -٤ ٹائم فریم پر، قیمت بیلنس لائن (ریڈ موونگ ایوریج) سے اوپر آ گئی ہے، اور مارلن آسیلیٹر مثبت علاقے میں داخل ہو گیا ہے۔ یہ مزید ترقی کے امکانات کی نشاندہی کرتا ہے۔ تاہم، ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. لائن (بلیو موونگ ایوریج) اپنے عروج کے قریب ہے، اور اس بات کا زیادہ امکان ہے کہ لائن اور قیمت دونوں چوٹی تک پہنچنے کے بعد الٹ جائیں گے۔



تعینات کیا مراد ہے مارکیٹ کے تجزیات یہاں ارسال کیے جاتے ہیں جس کا مقصد آپ کی بیداری بڑھانا ہے، لیکن تجارت کرنے کے لئے ہدایات دینا نہیں*

USD/JPY Analysis (H1 Time Frame)
Aj ke din USD/JPY ka H1 (1-hour) time frame chart ek stable bullish momentum dikhata hai. Price ne 157.400 ke level ke aas paas ek strong support create kiya hai aur ab gradually 157.800 ke resistance ki taraf barh raha hai. Yeh movement market ke bullish sentiments ko highlight karti hai, jo short-term traders ke liye ek achi opportunity ho sakti hai.
Chart ke mutabiq, price ne pehle sideways range me kaafi waqt guzara, jahan dono buyers aur sellers ka balance tha. Lekin recent candles ek upward momentum dikhati hain, jisme green bullish candles kaafi dominant hain. Agar yeh trend continue karta hai aur price 157.800 ke resistance level ko todta hai, toh agla target 158.200 tak ho sakta hai. Yeh level ek psychological barrier bhi ban sakta hai, jahan profit-taking activities honay ka imkaan hai.
Dusri taraf, agar price apna current momentum lose karta hai aur niche girta hai, toh 157.400 ka support zone kaafi aham hoga. Agar yeh support tod diya jaye, toh price phir se 157.000 tak aasakta hai. Traders ko is waqt apni positions ke liye tight stop-loss lagana zaroori hoga, kyun ke market ke andar volatility kaafi zyada hai.
Technical indicators ke mutabiq, market abhi overbought zone mein nahi hai, lekin volume gradually barhta dikhayi de raha hai, jo is bullish movement ko support karta hai. Fundamental factors jaise ke US Dollar ki strength aur Japanese Yen ke safe-haven status ka asar bhi price movement par ho sakta hai.
Short-term traders ke liye yeh ek ideal waqt hai, jahan unhein price action aur resistance-support zones par focus karna hoga. Long-term investors ko thoda intezar karna chahiye, jab tak market clear direction nahi dikhata.
Aapka trading plan carefully banayein aur market ki har choti movement ko observe karte rahein. Achhi planning aur patience ke sath profitable opportunities mil sakti hain.

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Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Japanese Yen Falls in Asian Trade

Japanese yen Asian trade mein Monday ke din major rivals ke muqable mein gir gaya, aur US dollar ke against negative zone mein chala gaya. Yen higher US treasury yields ke pressure ki wajah se 5-mahinon ke lows ke qareeb hai.

Japanese policymakers ke darmiyan ab bhi divisions hain, aur investors is saal monetary policy normalization ke rukh ke liye zyada clues ka intezar kar rahe hain.

The Price

• USD/JPY pair aaj 0.4% se zyada barh kar 157.83 yen per dollar tak pohonch gaya, jabke session-low 157.14 tha.
• Yen ne Friday ko dollar ke muqable mein kareeb 0.2% izafa kiya, jo 3 din mein pehli bar profit tha aur 5-mahinon ke lows 158.08 se door gaya.
• Pichle hafte yen ne dollar ke muqable mein 0.35% izafa kiya, jo late November ke baad pehla weekly profit tha. Yeh izafa Japanese authorities ki nigraani mein hua, jo yen ki excessive weakness par alarm baja rahe the.

Japanese Rates

• January mein BOJ (Bank of Japan) ke 0.25% interest rate hike ke odds 55% hain, jabke investors inflation aur labor data ke liye aur zyada clues ka intezar kar rahe hain.
• BOJ ke latest meeting minutes ne divisions dikhaye, jahan kuch policymakers short term mein interest rates barhane ke liye zyada confident hain, jabke kuch abhi bhi wages aur uncertainty ki wajah se cautious hain.
• BOJ ke Kazuo Ueda ne December mein kaha tha ke bank umeed karta hai ke agle saal tak economy apne 2% inflation target ke qareeb sustainably pohonch jayegi.

US Yields
US 10-year treasury yields Monday ko 0.65% barh gayi, jo lagataar doosre session ke liye gains expand kar rahi hain, aur kareeb 7-mahinon ke highs tak pohonch gayi. Is wajah se dollar ki standing mazeed strong hui.

Fedwatch tool ke mutabiq, January mein Federal Reserve ke 0.25% interest rate cut ke odds sirf 11% hain.

US Dollar Index (DXY)
US Dollar Index ka daily chart bohot intriguing hai. Aaj subah ke selloff ne index ko ek key confluence tak le aaya hai jo agle dinon ke price action ka rukh tay kar sakta hai.

Index ne ascending trendline ke bilkul kareeb support 108.64 par bounce kiya hai.

• Agar trendline toot jaye, to index short-term downside correction ke liye 108.00 ya shayad 107.00 tak gir sakta hai.
• Agar support level se bounce hota hai aur ooper ki taraf move karta hai, to yeh 110.00 ke upar fresh highs ke liye rasta khol sakta hai.
• US Dollar ka narrative strength ka hai. Fed policymakers ke recent comments rising inflation par focus karte hain, jo price pressures par pivot ka sabab ban sakte hain. Yeh USD ko medium term mein support de sakta hai.

Trump presidency ke expectations bhi January 21 inauguration ke qareeb factor kar sakti hain.

Pehla possibility yeh hai ke inauguration se pehle USD mein weakness rahe, aur phir market participants “cheap” dollar lene ki koshish mein buying pressure wapas le aayen.
Dusra possibility yeh hai ke inauguration tak USD strong rahe, magar Trump agar apne campaign promises par deliver na kar saken, to post-election USD selling pressure face kar sakta hai.

USD/JPY Attempts to Rebound
USD/JPY recent pullback ke baad rebound ki koshish kar raha hai. 10-year Treasuries ke yields wapas 4.55% ke level ke upar barh gayi hain, jo USD/JPY ke liye bullish hai.

Agar USD/JPY 157.50 level ke upar jata hai, to yeh agle nearest resistance level 158.50 – 159.00 tak ja sakta hai.

USD/JPY