USD/JPY ایکسچینج ریٹ: آج کی قیمت اور مارکیٹ تجزیہ

nuqsan ko aur barha raha tha. Yeh girawat mazeed tawajjo ka markaz bani, khaaskar jab ke Middle East mein geopolitical tensions barh rahi hain, jo ho sakta hai yen ke liye kuch support faraham karein. Israeli intelligence reports ke mutabiq Iran shayad Israel par seedha hamla karne wala hai, Hamas ke leader Ismail Haniyeh ke Tehran mein qatal ka badla lene ke liye. Market ke band hone tak, USD/JPY ka currency pair lagbhag 140.81 par trade kar raha tha. USD/JPY ke Fundamentals: Dusri taraf, US Dollar apni challenges ka samna kar raha hai. Traders ab intezar kar rahe hain ke September mein US Federal Reserve (Fed) ek bara rate cut karega. CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq, 50-basis point cut ka imkaan 72.0% tak barh gaya hai, jo ek haftay pehle sirf 11.8% tha. Is ke bawajood, USD ne apne kuch intraday losses ko recover kar liya. US Dollar Index (DXY), jo ke Greenback ki qeemat ko chhe badi currencies ke muqablay mein napta hai, 101.00 ke level par qaraar liya huwa hai.

Bank of Japan (BoJ) ki July 30-31 Monetary Policy Meeting se aaye Summary of Opinions ke mutabiq, kai members ka kehna hai ke economy aur prices umeed ke mutabiq barh rahe hain. BoJ ka maqsaad hai ke medium term mein neutral rate "kam az kam 1%" ke qareeb rahe. Magar BoJ ke hawkish stance ka asar filhaal zyada arsey tak nahi chalega. Global risk aversion se ho sakta hai ke policy-tightening ka silsila ruk jaye. Japan ki equity markets mein volatility bhi BoJ ki accommodative policies ke khatme ke baad barh gayi hai, jo rate hikes ke prospects par asar andaz hui hai.

Daily Time Frame Technical Outlook:

USD/JPY pair ko foran resistance nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke aas paas, 143.06 ke level par mil sakti hai. Agar yeh level toot jata hai, to bearish momentum kam ho sakta hai aur pair ko 50-day EMA par test karne ka moka mil sakta hai, jo 149.33 ke qareeb hai, aur us ke baad "throwback support turned resistance" 150.50 par. Downside par, pair ko support 140.00 ke aas paas mil sakta hai, aur agla support 139.25 par ho sakta hai.

Jumay tak, pair lagbhag 140.80 par trade kar raha tha. Daily chart ko dekhte hue, yeh maloom hota hai ke pair abhi tak nine-day EMA ke neeche hai, jo ke short-term mein bearish trend ka ishara karta hai. Is ke ilawa, 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) 30 ke level se upar aaya hai, jo yeh batata hai ke ek potential correction shuru ho sakta hai.

hi mein USD/JPY pair ne 144.53 ke support level ko tor diya hai, jo downtrend ke barqarar rehne ka ishara hai. Breakout ke baad pair ne 99 points ka girawat dekha aur phir upward correction ka koshish ki, jahan buyers ne kuch ground wapas hasil kiya aur price 144.53 ke resistance level tak wapas pohanch gaya. Is maqam par sell positions kholna behtar hoga, jahan target 140-141 range tak ka mazeed decline ho sakta hai. Agar pair 144.53 ke resistance se upar rebound karta hai, toh recovery ka silsila jari reh sakta hai, aur agla resistance level 146.38 hoga. Hourly chart par ek flag jesa ascending channel hai jo yeh suggest karta hai ke downtrend phir se shuru ho sakta hai. H4 chart par pair ek descending channel mein hai aur apne lower boundary se bounce back kiya hai. Agar price 144.49 ke level ko tor kar upar jata hai, toh buy karna aur target 145.69 rakhna aik viable strategy ho sakti hai. Aaj main USD/JPY ki price action ko closely dekh raha hoon. Haal hi mein kuch bearish pin bars 144.10 ke local resistance level par banay hain, jo ek mumkin decline ki nishandahi karte hain. Bank of Japan ne apni interest rate ko 0.25% se kam par barqarar rakhne ka faisla kiya hai. Yeh faisla yeh zahir karta hai ke BOJ apni mojooda monetary policy ko continue kar raha hai, jo Yen ki strength par asar dal sakta hai. Is fundamental background ke hawalay se, USD/JPY ke liye bearish trend ka imkaan zyada lagta hai. Hourly chart par ek bearish engulfing pattern bhi nazar aya, jo downward move ka aur signal hai. In tamam signals ko madde nazar rakhte hue, mein agle haftay mein USD/JPY ko niche ki taraf dekh raha hoon. Mera pehla target lagbhag 50 points ka decline hai (spread ke baghair), lekin mazeed downside potential bhi mojood hai. Bearish outlook ke bawajood, USD/JPY ne hal hi mein 20 din ka high 144.50 touch kiya tha. Sellers ne control hasil karne ki koshish ki, lekin price ko effectively niche nahi le jaa paye. Maine ek ahem support area 143.49 aur 143.77 ke darmiyan dekha hai, jo prices ko elevated rakhta hai. Lekin market ke close ke qareeb, asset ne resistance ko barqarar rakhne mein mushkil ka samna kiya, aur double tops aur bottoms fifteen-minute chart par dekhay gaye. Jumlay se ye zahir hota hai ke USA mein economic growth ke hawalay se uncertainties ka asar USD/JPY ke price par par raha hai. Ueda ki ehtiyaati rhetoric ne 2024 mein ek aur BoJ rate hike ke chances kam kar diye hain. Short-term interest rate swaps market mein December

output active sell hai. Yeh technical analysis continued downward movement ko coming week mein advocate karta hai. Ab, significant news ko consider karte hain jo pair ko affect karta hai. Notable news US se likely hai, optimistic forecast ke saath. Initial US unemployment benefit claims ke data Thursday ko likely hai,
USD/JPY sell karne ka plan kar raha hoon sirf tab jab 146.76 ka test hota hai jo ke chart par red line se dikhaya gaya hai, jo ke pair ke rapid decline ko lead karega. Sellers ke liye key target hoga 145.81, jahan mein short positions exit karunga aur foran long positions opposite direction mein open karunga, expecting 20-25 pips ki movement opposite direction mein is level se. USD/JPY par pressure kisi bhi waqt wapas aa sakta hai, khas tor par agar correction pehle aadha din mein unsuccessful hoti hai aur daily high ka test nahi hota. Important: Sell karne se pehle, ensure karein ke MACD indicator zero mark ke niche ho aur usse decline karna shuru ho
USD/JPY pair abhi tak bearish trend mein hai. 9-day exponential moving average (EMA) 21-day EMA ke neeche hai, aur 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) 50 level se neeche hai, jo ke downtrend ko confirm karta hai. Yeh pair qareebi support 141.69 ke paas (jo ke saat mahinay ka low hai) dhoond sakta hai, aur agla support 140.25 par ho sakta hai. Agar upar ki taraf dekha jaye, toh pair ko resistance 9-day EMA ke paas 145.63 par face karna padega, aur phir 21-day EMA par 146.73 par. Agar yeh levels break hotay hain, toh psychological barrier 150.00 tak rasta khul sakta hai, aur agla resistance 154.50 par ho ga. Kal ke 147.00 ke ooper ke brief surge ke bawajood, USD/JPY pair apni momentum ko sustain nahi kar saka jab 20-day EMA ne support trend line se retreat kiya. Technical indicators, jisme RSI aur Stochastic shamil hain, aik potential reversal suggest karte hain, jabke 50- aur 200-day moving averages ke darmiyan death cross longer-term bearish trend ka ishara karta hai

mein USD/JPY pair ne 144.53 ke support level ko tor diya hai, jo downtrend ke barqarar rehne ka ishara hai. Breakout ke baad pair ne 99 points ka girawat dekha aur phir upward correction ka koshish ki, jahan buyers ne kuch ground wapas hasil kiya aur price 144.53 ke resistance level tak wapas pohanch gaya. Is maqam par sell positions kholna behtar hoga, jahan target 140-141 range tak ka mazeed decline ho sakta hai. Agar pair 144.53 ke resistance se upar rebound karta hai, toh recovery ka silsila jari reh sakta hai, aur agla resistance level 146.38 hoga. Hourly chart par ek flag jesa ascending channel hai jo yeh suggest karta hai ke downtrend phir se shuru ho sakta hai. H4 chart par pair ek descending channel mein hai aur apne lower boundary se bounce back kiya hai. Agar price 144.49 ke level ko tor kar upar jata hai, toh buy karna aur target 145.69 rakhna aik viable strategy ho sakti hai. Aaj main USD/JPY ki price action ko closely dekh raha hoon. Haal hi mein kuch bearish pin bars 144.10 ke local resistance level par banay hain, jo ek mumkin decline ki nishandahi karte hain. Bank of Japan ne apni interest rate ko 0.25% se kam par barqarar rakhne ka faisla kiya hai. Yeh faisla yeh zahir karta hai ke BOJ apni mojooda monetary policy ko continue kar raha hai, jo Yen ki strength par asar dal sakta hai. Is fundamental background ke hawalay se, USD/JPY ke liye bearish trend ka imkaan zyada lagta hai. Hourly chart par ek bearish engulfing pattern bhi nazar aya, jo downward move ka aur signal hai. In tamam signals ko madde nazar rakhte hue, mein agle haftay mein USD/JPY ko niche ki taraf dekh raha hoon. Mera pehla target lagbhag 50 points ka decline hai (spread ke baghair), lekin mazeed downside potential bhi mojood hai. Bearish outlook ke bawajood, USD/JPY ne hal hi mein 20 din ka high 144.50 touch kiya tha. Sellers ne control hasil karne ki koshish ki, lekin price ko effectively niche nahi le jaa paye. Maine ek ahem support area 143.49 aur 143.77 ke darmiyan dekha hai, jo prices ko elevated rakhta hai. Lekin market ke close ke qareeb, asset ne resistance ko barqarar rakhne mein mushkil ka samna kiya, aur double tops aur bottoms fifteen-minute chart par dekhay gaye. Jumlay se ye zahir hota hai ke USA mein economic growth ke hawalay se uncertainties ka asar USD/JPY ke price par par raha hai. Ueda ki ehtiyaati rhetoric ne 2024 mein ek aur BoJ rate hike ke chances kam kar diye hain. Short-term interest rate swaps

nuqsan ko aur barha raha tha. Yeh girawat mazeed tawajjo ka markaz bani, khaaskar jab ke Middle East mein geopolitical tensions barh rahi hain, jo ho sakta hai yen ke liye kuch support faraham karein. Israeli intelligence reports ke mutabiq Iran shayad Israel par seedha hamla karne wala hai, Hamas ke leader Ismail Haniyeh ke Tehran mein qatal ka badla lene ke liye. Market ke band hone tak, USD/JPY ka currency pair lagbhag 140.81 par trade kar raha tha. USD/JPY ke Fundamentals: Dusri taraf, US Dollar apni challenges ka samna kar raha hai. Traders ab intezar kar rahe hain ke September mein US Federal Reserve (Fed) ek bara rate cut karega. CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq, 50-basis point cut ka imkaan 72.0% tak barh gaya hai, jo ek haftay pehle sirf 11.8% tha. Is ke bawajood, USD ne apne kuch intraday losses ko recover kar liya. US Dollar Index (DXY), jo ke Greenback ki qeemat ko chhe badi currencies ke muqablay mein napta hai, 101.00 ke level par qaraar liya huwa hai.

Bank of Japan (BoJ) ki July 30-31 Monetary Policy Meeting se aaye Summary of Opinions ke mutabiq, kai members ka kehna hai ke economy aur prices umeed ke mutabiq barh rahe hain. BoJ ka maqsaad hai ke medium term mein neutral rate "kam az kam 1%" ke qareeb rahe. Magar BoJ ke hawkish stance ka asar filhaal zyada arsey tak nahi chalega. Global risk aversion se ho sakta hai ke policy-tightening ka silsila ruk jaye. Japan ki equity markets mein volatility bhi BoJ ki accommodative policies ke khatme ke baad barh gayi hai, jo rate hikes ke prospects par asar andaz hui hai.

Daily Time Frame Technical Outlook:

USD/JPY pair ko foran resistance nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke aas paas, 143.06 ke level par mil sakti hai. Agar yeh level toot jata hai, to bearish momentum kam ho sakta hai aur pair ko 50-day EMA par test karne ka moka mil sakta hai, jo 149.33 ke qareeb hai, aur us ke baad "throwback support turned resistance" 150.50 par. Downside par, pair ko support 140.00 ke aas paas mil sakta hai, aur agla support 139.25 par ho sakta hai.

Jumay tak, pair lagbhag 140.80 par trade kar raha tha. Daily chart ko dekhte hue, yeh maloom hota hai ke pair abhi tak nine-day EMA ke neeche hai, jo ke short-term mein bearish trend ka ishara karta hai. Is ke ilawa, 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) 30 ke level se upar aaya hai, jo yeh batata hai ke ek potential correction shuru ho sakta hai.

USD/JPY pair abhi ek nazuk mawaznay ke daur se guzar raha hai jahan ek taraf bullish momentum hai aur doosri taraf downside ka khatra. Agar pair 144.038 ke aham resistance level ko breach karne mein nakam hota hai, tou yeh bullish pressure ke kamzor honay ki nishani ho sakti hai. Yeh resistance level market ke liye ek psychological aur technical barrier ka kaam karta hai. Agar yeh breach na ho paya, tou traders apni long positions ko reduce kar sakte hain, jo ke pullback ka sabab ban sakta hai. Agar yeh level barqarar na raha, tou market mein volatility barh sakti hai, kyun ke direction ka aur tasdeeq ka intezaar hoga. Agar pair upar jata hai lekin phir 143.733 se neeche girta hai, tou outlook kaafi bearish ho sakta hai. Yeh price level ek pivot point ka kaam karta hai jahan upward momentum aur reversal ke darmiyan farq hota hai. 143.733 se neeche girnay ka matlab yeh hoga ke buyers market par apna qabza kho chuke hain aur sellers ke liye raah khuli hai. Is surat mein agla aham level 144.361 ka support hoga. Agar selling pressure yahan barh gaya, tou market mein ek correction phase shuru ho sakta hai, aur traders neeche ke price points par apni positions establish karna chahein ge. Agar 144.361 ka level barqarar na raha, tou bearish sentiment tasdeeq ho jaye gi aur downside risk aur barh sakta hai.
Aik ziada bearish scenario mein, USD/JPY pair apni decline ko aglay support level 144.73 tak barh sakta hai, jahan buyers market mein phir se daakhil honay ki umeed hai. Yeh level bullish traders ke liye ek mazboot support ka kaam kar sakta hai jahan woh apni positions consolidate kar sakein aur potential rebound ke liye tayar ho sakein. Agar buying interest is support level par mazid barh gaya, tou market mein downtrend temporarily ruk sakta hai, aur pair ko stabilize honay ka moqa milay ga. Lekin agar yeh level bhi defend na ho saka, tou downside momentum mazeed barh sakta hai, aur traders is se bhi neeche ke support levels ko target karna shuru kar denge. US dollar par pressure ke bawajood, USD/JPY currency pair ne H4 chart par apni northern trend ko barqarar rakha, kyun ke iske quotes MA100 indicator ki middle line ke neeche break nahi hue. Isi wajah se mein yeh umeed karta hoon ke iske quotations jald hi dobara growth shuru karenge, kyun ke yeh ek possible bullish zigzag wave "C" ko develop kar raha hai. Iski waves "A" (jo ke ek initial diagonal hai) aur "B" (jo ke ek plane hai) pehle se hi form ho chuki hain. Histogram aur MACD indicator ki signal line bhi bullish zone mein hai, jo asset ki northern uptrend ke liye support ka izhaar karti hai.

USD/JPY ka Technical Tajziya
Main USD/JPY pair ko hourly chart par dekh raha hoon. Yahan ek downward trend channel tha, phir jab trend channel ki neeche wali boundaries break hui, toh buyer ka volume aa gaya. Yani neeche ki boundaries break hui, magar seller ka volume nahi tha, aur pair wapas trend channel mein aa gaya. Phir buyer ne yahan volume lena shuru kiya, jo pair ke mazeed growth ka ishara tha. Maine phir andaza lagaya ke pair yahan se growth resume kar sakta hai. Aur jaisa ke hum dekh rahe hain, ek ascending trend channel bana, lekin iske bawajood main yeh samajhta tha ke pair neeche ja sakta hai, shayad 139.930 tak. Kyun ke seller ne yahan volume gain kiya tha, lekin phir ek aisa trend bana ke har baar pair naye maximum par ja raha tha. Phir mujhe laga ke yeh 147.098 ke resistance tak ja sakta hai.

Phir jaisa ke hum dekhte hain, volume mein kami aani shuru hui aur support level 142.078 ke kareeb seller ne wapas volume lena shuru kiya. Yani abhi tak support break nahi hui, magar seller ka volume aa raha hai. Lagta hai ke pair un stops tak chala gaya hai jo maine pehle mention kiye thay, jo ke 140.534 ke neeche wale range mein thay. Zyada chances hain ke yeh wahan tak jaaye aur phir growth ko resume kare.

Main USD/JPY pair ko 15-minute chart par dekh raha hoon. Yahan resistance 144.075 break hua hai. Pair ne apni growth ko 145.491 tak barhaya aur ek aur resistance 146.150 tak bhi pohanch gaya, yani mere sab growth targets ko pair ne higher timeframes par achieve kiya. Hourly chart par maine in marks tak growth ka andaza lagaya tha, magar yeh volume decline hoga yeh nahi socha tha. Pair 142.913 ke support tak gir gaya. Yahan seller ne volume lena shuru kiya, aur phir maine andaza lagaya ke shayad pair un targets tak ja sakta hai jo maine pehle bataye thay. Yani wapas us range tak jahan pair pehle trade ho raha tha, aur ab mujhe lagta hai ke pair 141.123 ke support tak gir sakta hai.

Afternoon Analysis Update September 26, 2024

USD/JPY Tajziya

Aaj dopehar tak, maine dekha ke USD/JPY market 4-hour time frame par bullish trend ke sath chal raha hai. Jab European aur American market sessions ka aghaz hoga, tab market mein zyada volatility ka intezar hai, jahan harakat mein tezi aasakti hai. Iss haftay USD/JPY pair ko dekhna zaroori hai, jo ke lagta hai bullish continuation ka ishara de raha hai, khaaskar jab kal raat ke buying volume ne 144.85 ke resistance area tak pohanchne ki koshish ki thi.

Iss surat-e-haal mein, ab tak mujhe lagta hai ke market mein mazeed izafa karne ki koshish ho rahi hai kyun ke abhi tak upward phase mein movement ho rahi hai. Mere agle trading plan mein, main 145.16 ke area ke ird gird buy entry lene ka soch raha hoon. Market ke movement pattern ko dekhte hue, khaaskar jab market ne chand ghanton mein upar ki taraf harakat ki, lekin izafa utna zyada nahi hua.

Iss waqt, yeh nazar aa raha hai ke bullish options ka mauqa abhi bhi mojood hai kyun ke jab se September ke shuru mein trading phase ka aghaz hua, lagta hai ke price mein mazeed izafa hone ke asar hain. Is hafta ke aakhir tak long-term trend ko follow karte hue trading ki tayyari ka soch sakte hain. Buyer ka ghalba abhi bhi market trend ko aage barhane ka mauqa de raha hai taake upar wale target areas tak pohanch sakein.

USD/JPY ke movement ki prediction ke mutabiq, price mazeed bullish trend mein chal sakti hai. Agle movement mein price ke upar jane ka imkaan hai. Lekin, ideal trading position lene ke liye intezar karna zaroori hai jab market mein volatility barhti hai, khaaskar jab European session ka aghaz ho chuka hai. Agle chand ghanton mein agar izafa hota hai, to traders ke liye yeh acha mauqa ho sakta hai ke wo is surat-e-haal ka faida uthakar ideal position mein buy trading kar saken.

Trading Plan:

Iss USD/JPY market mein, ab tak mujhe clearly nazar aa raha hai ke trend abhi bhi buyers ke qaboo mein hai, jaisa ke subha se price ke izafa se nazar aa raha hai. Kal raat market mein achanak se buying hui jis wajah se price abhi tak upar ki taraf move kar raha hai. Magar abhi market ko 144.85 ke resistance area ko break karne mein mushkilat ka samna hai. Technically, mera focus abhi bhi Buy opportunities dhoondhne par hai, aur aise movement ke liye Japanese Yen market mein fundamentals ko mazid mazboot karna zaroori hoga.

Afternoon Analysis Update September 26, 2024

USD/JPY Tajziya

Aaj dopehar tak, maine dekha ke USD/JPY market 4-hour time frame par bullish trend ke sath chal raha hai. Jab European aur American market sessions ka aghaz hoga, tab market mein zyada volatility ka intezar hai, jahan harakat mein tezi aasakti hai. Iss haftay USD/JPY pair ko dekhna zaroori hai, jo ke lagta hai bullish continuation ka ishara de raha hai, khaaskar jab kal raat ke buying volume ne 144.85 ke resistance area tak pohanchne ki koshish ki thi.

Iss surat-e-haal mein, ab tak mujhe lagta hai ke market mein mazeed izafa karne ki koshish ho rahi hai kyun ke abhi tak upward phase mein movement ho rahi hai. Mere agle trading plan mein, main 145.16 ke area ke ird gird buy entry lene ka soch raha hoon. Market ke movement pattern ko dekhte hue, khaaskar jab market ne chand ghanton mein upar ki taraf harakat ki, lekin izafa utna zyada nahi hua.

Iss waqt, yeh nazar aa raha hai ke bullish options ka mauqa abhi bhi mojood hai kyun ke jab se September ke shuru mein trading phase ka aghaz hua, lagta hai ke price mein mazeed izafa hone ke asar hain. Is hafta ke aakhir tak long-term trend ko follow karte hue trading ki tayyari ka soch sakte hain. Buyer ka ghalba abhi bhi market trend ko aage barhane ka mauqa de raha hai taake upar wale target areas tak pohanch sakein.

USD/JPY ke movement ki prediction ke mutabiq, price mazeed bullish trend mein chal sakti hai. Agle movement mein price ke upar jane ka imkaan hai. Lekin, ideal trading position lene ke liye intezar karna zaroori hai jab market mein volatility barhti hai, khaaskar jab European session ka aghaz ho chuka hai. Agle chand ghanton mein agar izafa hota hai, to traders ke liye yeh acha mauqa ho sakta hai ke wo is surat-e-haal ka faida uthakar ideal position mein buy trading kar saken.

Trading Plan:

Iss USD/JPY market mein, ab tak mujhe clearly nazar aa raha hai ke trend abhi bhi buyers ke qaboo mein hai, jaisa ke subha se price ke izafa se nazar aa raha hai. Kal raat market mein achanak se buying hui jis wajah se price abhi tak upar ki taraf move kar raha hai. Magar abhi market ko 144.85 ke resistance area ko break karne mein mushkilat ka samna hai. Technically, mera focus abhi bhi Buy opportunities dhoondhne par hai, aur aise movement ke liye Japanese Yen market mein fundamentals ko mazid mazboot karna zaroori hoga.

USD/JPY currency pair ka mojooda pricing behavior hai. Hal hi mein USD/JPY pair ne 144.53 ke support level ko tor diya hai, jo downtrend ke barqarar rehne ka ishara hai. Breakout ke baad pair ne 99 points ka girawat dekha aur phir upward correction ka koshish ki, jahan buyers ne kuch ground wapas hasil kiya aur price 144.53 ke resistance level tak wapas pohanch gaya. Is maqam par sell positions kholna behtar hoga, jahan target 140-141 range tak ka mazeed decline ho sakta hai. Agar pair 144.53 ke resistance se upar rebound karta hai, toh recovery ka silsila jari reh sakta hai, aur agla resistance level 146.38 hoga. Hourly chart par ek flag jesa ascending channel hai jo yeh suggest karta hai ke downtrend phir se shuru ho sakta hai. H4 chart par pair ek descending channel mein hai aur apne lower boundary se bounce back kiya hai. Agar price 144.49 ke level ko tor kar upar jata hai, toh buy karna aur target 145.69 rakhna aik viable strategy ho sakti hai. Aaj main USD/JPY ki price action ko closely dekh raha hoon. Haal hi mein kuch bearish pin bars 144.10 ke local resistance level par banay hain, jo ek mumkin decline ki nishandahi karte hain. Bank of Japan ne apni interest rate ko 0.25% se kam par barqarar rakhne ka faisla kiya hai. Yeh faisla yeh zahir karta hai ke BOJ apni mojooda monetary policy ko continue kar raha hai, jo Yen ki strength par asar dal sakta hai. Is fundamental background ke hawalay se, USD/JPY ke liye bearish trend ka imkaan zyada lagta hai. Hourly chart par ek bearish engulfing pattern bhi nazar aya, jo downward move ka aur signal hai. In tamam signals ko madde nazar rakhte hue, mein agle haftay mein USD/JPY ko niche ki taraf dekh raha hoon. Mera pehla target lagbhag 50 points ka decline hai (spread ke baghair), lekin mazeed downside potential bhi mojood hai. Bearish outlook ke bawajood, USD/JPY ne hal hi mein 20 din ka high 144.50 touch kiya tha. Sellers ne control hasil karne ki koshish ki, lekin price ko effectively niche nahi le jaa paye. Maine ek ahem support area 143.49 aur 143.77 ke darmiyan dekha hai, jo prices ko elevated rakhta hai. Lekin market ke close ke qareeb, asset ne resistance ko barqarar rakhne mein mushkil ka samna kiya, aur double tops aur bottoms fifteen-minute chart par dekhay gaye. Jumlay se ye zahir hota hai ke USA mein economic growth ke hawalay se uncertainties ka asar USD/JPY ke price par par raha hai. Ueda ki ehtiyaati rhetoric ne 2024 mein ek aur BoJ rate hike ke chances kam kar diye hain

decline ka sabab softer US Dollar (USD) aur market sentiment ka safe-haven assets ki taraf shift hona hai. Traders ab Thursday ko aane wali weekly US Initial Jobless Claims report ka intezaar kar rahe hain, jo ke US ki economic aur employment conditions ke hawalay se nayi insights de sakti hai. Pair abhi takriban 143.14 ke level par trade kar raha hai. **USD/JPY ke Fundamentals:**
Recent Bank of Japan (BoJ) ke June meeting minutes ke hawalay se kuch members mein rising import prices ko le kar concern barh raha hai, jo ke weak JPY ki wajah se ho rahe hain. Yeh inflationary pressures mein izafa kar sakte hain. Ek member ne highlight kiya ke cost-push inflation agar inflation expectations aur wage growth ko barha de to ye underlying inflation ko aur zyada exacerbate kar sakta hai. Iske ilawa, BoJ ka Quarterly Outlook Report jo ke Thursday ko release kiya gaya, is baat ka izhar karta hai ke wages aur inflation expectations se zyada barh sakti hain, jo ke inflation expectations aur tighter labor market ki taraf le ja sakta hai.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee ne indicate kiya ke agar economic ya financial conditions deteriorate karti hain to Federal Reserve action lene ke liye tayyar hai. Goolsbee ne emphasize kiya ke Fed ka forward-looking stance hai aur agar conditions collectively aise develop hoti hain jo deterioration show karain to hum usay fix karain ge, jese ke unhon ne Reuters ko bataya. Yeh Fed ki commitment ko underscore karta hai ke wo possible economic challenges ko proactively address karain

Humare analysis ka mawzoo USD/JPY currency pair ka mojooda pricing behavior hai. Hal hi mein USD/JPY pair ne 144.53 ke support level ko tor diya hai, jo downtrend ke barqarar rehne ka ishara hai. Breakout ke baad pair ne 99 points ka girawat dekha aur phir upward correction ka koshish ki, jahan buyers ne kuch ground wapas hasil kiya aur price 144.53 ke resistance level tak wapas pohanch gaya. Is maqam par sell positions kholna behtar hoga, jahan target 140-141 range tak ka mazeed decline ho sakta hai. Agar pair 144.53 ke resistance se upar rebound karta hai, toh recovery ka silsila jari reh sakta hai, aur agla resistance level 146.38 hoga. Hourly chart par ek flag jesa ascending channel hai jo yeh suggest karta hai ke downtrend phir se shuru ho sakta hai. H4 chart par pair ek descending channel mein hai aur apne lower boundary se bounce back kiya hai. Agar price 144.49 ke level ko tor kar upar jata hai, toh buy karna aur target 145.69 rakhna aik viable strategy ho sakti hai.
Aaj main USD/JPY ki price action ko closely dekh raha hoon. Haal hi mein kuch bearish pin bars 144.10 ke local resistance level par banay hain, jo ek mumkin decline ki nishandahi karte hain. Bank of Japan ne apni interest rate ko 0.25% se kam par barqarar rakhne ka faisla kiya hai. Yeh faisla yeh zahir karta hai ke BOJ apni mojooda monetary policy ko continue kar raha hai, jo Yen ki strength par asar dal sakta hai. Is fundamental background ke hawalay se, USD/JPY ke liye bearish trend ka imkaan zyada lagta hai. Hourly chart par ek bearish engulfing pattern bhi nazar aya, jo downward move ka aur signal hai. In tamam signals ko madde nazar rakhte hue, mein agle haftay mein USD/JPY ko niche ki taraf dekh raha hoon. Mera pehla target lagbhag 50 points ka decline hai (spread ke baghair), lekin mazeed downside potential bhi mojood hai. Bearish outlook ke bawajood, USD/JPY ne hal hi mein 20 din ka high 144.50 touch kiya tha. Sellers ne control hasil karne ki koshish ki, lekin price ko effectively niche nahi le jaa paye. Maine ek ahem support area 143.49 aur 143.77 ke darmiyan dekha hai, jo prices ko elevated rakhta hai. Lekin market ke close ke qareeb, asset ne resistance ko barqarar rakhne mein mushkil ka samna kiya, aur double tops aur bottoms fifteen-minute chart par dekhay gaye. Jumlay se ye zahir hota hai ke USA mein economic growth ke hawalay se uncertainties ka asar USD/JPY ke price par par raha hai. Ueda ki ehtiyaati rhetoric ne 2024 mein ek aur BoJ rate hike ke chances kam kar diye hain. Short-term interest rate swaps market mein December policy meeting par 25 basis point hike ke sirf 30% chances hain. Isi doran, pichlay jumay ko, yani 20th September ko, USD/JPY ne Asian intraday low of 141.74 se 1.95% ka izafa dekhaya aur US session ke dauran 144.50 ka high print kiya.

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USD/JPY Ki Qeemat Ka Tajziya

Hamari tawajjo is waqt USD/JPY currency pair ki qeemat ki harkat par hai. Yeh mumkin hai ke aalaat aakhir kar kaam ke din pe khulaav me kuch farq dekhain, kyun ke market maker ya kisi baray kirdar ke zariye chal rahe tezi se neeche aate rujhan jari rehne ka imkaan hai. Agle trading hafte me 139.61 ke aas-paas ka support zone dekhne ko mil sakta hai. Is ke ilawa, agar moving average line ki taraf koi correction hoti hai, to yeh 144.01 ke psychological level ke aas-paas resistance zone tak pohanchne ka sabab ban sakta hai, jahan further selling ke liye limit orders ka ikattha hona mumkin hai. Psychological levels aksar asar kartay hain, aur kyun ke yeh aalaat neechay ki qeemat range me hain, is se neeche aate rujhan ke jari rehne ka faida hota hai. Magar, USD/JPY ka mustaqbil abhi tak wazeh nahi hai. Is kami ki wajah se kisi mazboot trading plan ka banaana mushkil hai, aur behtar yeh hoga ke kuch zyada wazeh signals ka intezar kiya jaye pehle kisi bhi qadam uthane se.




Aakhirat ki Trading Session

Jumeraat ki trading session ne Asia me kai currency pairs me volatility laayi, khaaskar is wajah se ke Japanese yen ne Japan ke naye prime minister ke dobarah intikhab ke baad taqat hasil ki. Jab ke naye administration ki policies abhi tak wazeh nahi hain, yen par shuruati bazaar ka rad-e-amal acha raha. USD/JPY currency pair ne bhi is se mutasir hote hue, resistance level 146.51 se support level 143.01 tak tezi se girawat dekhi, jisme 350 points ka nuqsan hai, aur phir 100 points aur gir kar 142.01 tak pahuncha. Jumeraat ke khatam hone par, yeh 142.19 ke aas-paas band hui, jab ke Monday pe iska khulaav 143.92 par tha, jo ke lagbhag 173 points ka total girawat darust karta hai. Pichlay hafte me yeh rujhan kaafi pur-sukoon tha, jab tak Jumeraat ki volatility ne sab kuch badal diya. Aakhri dafa, yen kaafi bechain raha hai, jab ke pehle yeh safe-haven currency ki tor par jana jata tha. Jab ke main mazboot predictions karne se katra raha hoon, technical analysis ke mutabiq, support level 140.01 ya shayad us se bhi neeche tak girawat ka imkaan hai.

Yen ki haal hi ki rally, jo ke US Dollar ke khilaf thi, teen musalsal jeetne walay sessions ke baad ruk gayi hai. Abhi spot price 143.00 ke aas-paas hai, jo ke Japan ke Trade Balance data ke baad hai. Halankeh ye short-term kami hai, yen ki girawat mein kami aane ka imkaan hai kyunke Bank of Japan (BoJ) ke interest rate mein izafa hone ki sambhavna barh gayi hai. Ab investors BoJ ke Governor Kazuo Ueda ke agle parliamentary appearance par nazar rakh rahe hain, jahan wo interest rates ke barhne ke faislay par baat karne wale hain. Somwar ko USD/JPY ka jo jora hai wo 143.20 ke aas-paas trade ho raha hai, jiska maqsad 143.50 hai.

Ueda ke parliament mein jaldi hi address karne ki ummeed hai, isliye market ke hissedaar BoJ ki policy ke bare mein mazeed maloomat ka intezar kar rahe hain. Ueda ki taqreer par koi bhi future rate hikes ya Japan ki monetary policy mein tabdeeli ka izhar kiya ja sakta hai. BoJ ki ehtiyaat bhari approach ne traders ko yen ke mustaqbil ke bare mein pareshan kar diya hai, jo USD/JPY jore mein utar-chadhaav ka sabab ban raha hai.

USD/JPY ke buniyadi pehlu:

Governor Ueda ne tasdeeq kiya ke BoJ tab tak interest rates barhata rahega jab tak maujooda ma'ashi aur price ka manzar-e-qabul barqarar hai. Ye jazba BoJ ke July policy meeting ke khulasa mein bhi zahir hua. Lekin BoJ ke Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida ne ehtiyaat barhti, aur qareebi waqt mein rate hike hone ke imkaan ko kam kar diya hai, jo recent financial market ki volatility ke chalte hai. Ye mix messaging investors ko BoJ ke future rate hikes ke waqt ke bare mein pareshan kar rahi hai, jo market ke utar-chadhaav ko barhati hai.

Market ka jazba behtareen hai, kyunke US Consumer Price Index (CPI) July ke liye aane wala hai. Ye inflation data Federal Reserve ke agle steps ke bare mein roshni daal sakta hai. Is darmiyan, S&P 500 futures ne European session mein achhe faide hasil kiye hain, jo positive investor sentiment ko zahir karta hai. Iske ilawa, US Dollar Index (DXY), jo ke USD ki value ko chhe badi currencies ke khilaf maapta hai, 100.50 ka critical support level pakray rakha hai. 10 saal ke US Treasury yields bhi thode se barhkar 3.91% ke aas-paas hain, jo bond markets mein optimism ka izhar hai.

Daily Time Frame Technical Outlook:

Pair ne Somwar ko thoda sa izafa dekha, jo ke 143.20 tak pahuncha. Lekin ye choti si recovery us broader downward trend ko nahi palti, jo 146.50 ke recent high par pahunchnay ke baad shuru hui thi. Ye kami yeh dikhati hai ke US Dollar ab kuch hafton pehle se kam Japanese Yen le raha hai, jo pair ki pehle ki upward momentum ka reversal hai. Jab USD/JPY ek important saath-mahinay ki low 139.59 ke kareeb pahunchega, jo 16 September ko record hui thi, is level se neeche girne se pair agle support level 139.00 ki taraf ja sakta hai, jo US Dollar par bearish pressure ko barha dega.




Technical Analysis:

Daily chart ka technical analysis dikhata hai ke USD/JPY ka pair ek downtrend line ko test kar raha hai, jo bearish bias ke kamzor hone ka imkaan zahir karta hai. Lekin ehtiyaat zaroori hai kyunke 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) 30 se thoda upar hai, jo bearish trend ke jaari rehne ka ishara deta hai. Agar 139.00 ke support level se neeche girta hai, to ye downtrend ko confirm karega, jabke rebound 143.50 ke resistance level ki taraf palatne ka ishara de sakta hai.

USD/JPY Price Insights

Hum is waqt USD/JPY currency pair ke price assessment par nazar rakh rahe hain. Humein abhi current decline scenario ka intezar karna hoga. Agar ye sirf ek bearish correction hai jo buyers ke stop-losses ko trigger karne ke liye hai, to bullish trend jald phir se shuru ho sakta hai. Lekin, hum ek complete reversal bhi dekh rahe hain. Is wajah se players ke agle moves ka andaza lagana mushkil hai.

Agar hum dekhein ke 139.55 level se humein ab bhi northward movement mil rahi hai, to 146.52 se 142.18 tak ki kami is correction ka hissa ho sakti hai. Iska matlab ye hai ke humein 143.51 ke upar phir se chadhne ka achha mauqa mil sakta hai aur 146.52 tak pahunchnay ka bhi. Dusri taraf, agar 143.51 ka level tut jata hai, to price niche ki taraf gir sakti hai, jisse downtrend ka khatara barh jayega. Is surat mein, main 139.55 level ko decline ka agla target samjhta hoon.




Jumeraat ka Dhamaka:

Jumeraat ne un bahut se buyers ki umeedon ko dhundla kar diya jo aham growth ki intezar kar rahe the. Afsoos, sab kuch predict karna mumkin nahi hai, isliye waqt par stop loss set karna bohot zaroori hai. Agle hafte, agar USD/JPY 142.18 ke support level ke neeche settle hota hai, to humein 140.98 ya shayad 139.63 ki taraf downward movement dekhne ko mil sakti hai. Lekin agar bulls wapas control hasil karte hain, to 142.18 ke upar buying ka mauqa mil sakta hai, jo price ko 143.28 ya usse bhi upar le ja sakta hai, ye bulls ki momentum par depend karega.

Daily chart abhi tak unclear hai lekin phir bhi bearish movement ki taraf jhuk raha hai, kyunke pehle ka correction ye zahir karta hai ke downtrend jaari reh sakta hai ya phir descending channel ke andar movement ho sakti hai.