USD/JPY ایکسچینج ریٹ: آج کی قیمت اور مارکیٹ تجزیہ

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USD/JPY Rises Ahead of BoJ Meeting

Japanese yen Wednesday ko mazeed gira hai. North American session mein, USD/JPY 154.08 par trade kar raha hai, jo din ka 0.37% ka izafa hai. December ka mahina yen ke liye mushkil raha hai, jo US dollar ke muqable mein 2.9% gir chuka hai.

Bank of Japan Ki Rates Ko Barkarar Rakhnay Ki Tawaqqu

Bank of Japan (BoJ) apni meeting Thursday subah karega aur tawaqqu hai ke benchmark rate ko 0.25% par barqarar rakhega. BoJ ne rates July se steady rakhe hain, lekin signal diya hai ke agla rate move hike hoga. Yeh BoJ ko dusray central banks ke khilaf khada karta hai, jo inflation ke girne ke response mein rates kam kar rahe hain.

BoJ dheere dheere normalization ki taraf barh raha hai, aur is saal ke khatam hone ke ba-wajood ek aur rate hike nahi hoga, lekin market January ya February mein hike ki umeed rakhta hai. Investors BoJ ke rate path ke bare mein clues dhoond rahe hain, lekin BoJ apne rate plans ke bare mein vague rehne ke liye mashhoor hai, aur Thursday ki meeting mein bhi aisa hi hone ka imkaan hai.

Federal Reserve Ke Faislay Ka Intizar

Federal Reserve apni rate announcement aaj karega. Faislay mein zyada excitement nahi hai, kyun ke market ne ek quarter-point cut ko lagbhag 100% price kar diya hai. Investors updated economic aur interest rate projections mein interested honge. January mein President-elect Trump ka office lena Fed policymakers ke liye uncertainty badha raha hai.

Aaj ki meeting se kya umeed hai? Fed signal karega ke agle saal rate cuts ka pace dheema hoga. Core inflation ke girne ka silsila ruka hai aur labor market mazboot hai, jo Fed ko January mein rate cuts dheema karne ka moka deta hai. Saath hi, Trump ke office sambhalne se pehle Fed tariffs ke asraat dekhna chahega, jo inflation ko barha sakte hain. Powell ye reiterate kar sakte hain ke Fed rates ko “gradual pace” par trim karna chahta hai, jo 25 basis points ke modest increments ka matlab hai.

USD/JPY Aur Jobless Claims Ka Focus

US Federal Reserve ke hawkish outlook ne BoJ par mazeed pressure dala hai. USD/JPY Wednesday ko 154.859 ka high touch kar gaya, jo import prices, living costs, aur household spending par asar daal sakta hai.

Investors ko Thursday subah volatility ke liye tayar rehna chahiye. Agar BoJ January rate hike ka signal deta hai, to USD/JPY 150 tak gir sakta hai. Waisa hi, agar stance non-commital raha, to pair 160 tak barh sakta hai. Agar BoJ rates barhata hai aur Q1 2025 mein aur hikes ka signal deta hai, to USD/JPY 140 tak gir sakta hai, jo carry trade unwind ka sabab banega.

Ueda Yagi Tanshi brokerage poll ke mutabiq 91% participants tawaqqu karte hain ke is hafte rates unchanged rahenge, lekin 95% tawaqqu karte hain ke agle teen mahino mein BoJ hike karega.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

US session ki taraf dekhen, to initial jobless claims US dollar demand ko influence karenge. Economists tawaqqu karte hain ke claims December 7 ke haftay ke 242k se December 14 ke haftay mein 230k tak girenge.

Agar claims tawaqqu se zyada girte hain, to yeh Fed ke hawkish stance ko support karega aur USD/JPY ko 156.884 resistance level ki taraf le ja sakta hai. Waisa hi, agar claims 250k se zyada barhte hain, to yeh Fed ke hawkish rate path ko challenge karega aur pair ko EMAs ki taraf kheench lega. Agar pair EMAs ke neeche girta hai, to 149.358 support level nazar mein aa sakta hai.