USD/JPY ایکسچینج ریٹ: آج کی قیمت اور مارکیٹ تجزیہ

USD/JPY Technical Analysis - H4 Timeframe
Market Ka Jaiza:
USD/JPY abhi 151.24 ke qareeb trade kar raha hai, jo ke Donchian Channel ka upper level hai aur bullish pressure ka izhar kar raha hai. Neeche ka Donchian level 149.37 par hai, jo ek important range banta hai. Kal price ne stop-loss level ko touch kiya, lekin ab girawat ka imkaan kam lagta hai, is liye buyers ka control zyada hai.
Bullish Indicators:
Price ab 200-period Moving Average (MA200) ke qareeb neeche se upar ki taraf ja raha hai. Agar yeh is level ke upar close kar leta hai, to strong buy signal mil sakta hai aur ghalat signal ka khatra kam ho jayega.
SAR (Stop and Reverse) Point price ke neeche hai, jo ke bullish trend ka izhar karta hai. Jab tak SAR price ke neeche hai, buyers ka control barqarar rahega.
Ek upar ki taraf jata hua trendline bhi bullish trend ko support karta hai aur unexpected reversal ki surat mein yeh ek dynamic stop-loss level ka kaam de sakta hai.
Trading Strategy:
Buy Setup:
Entry: Jab price 151.24 ke upar close kar le aur MA200 ke upar rahe.
Target: Agla resistance level 152.00-152.50 ho sakta hai.
Stop-Loss: Upward trendline ke neeche ya 150.80 par lagayein, risk preference ke mutabiq.
Breakout Strategy:
Agar price 151.24 ke upar breakout kar leta hai, to historical data ke mutabiq 60% success rate ka imkaan hai.
Risk Management:
SAR point ko stop-loss adjust karne ke liye use karen taake risk kam kiya ja sake. Achanak price reversal ka khayal rakhein aur positions ko accordingly adjust karen.
Nateeja:
USD/JPY ka pair bullish indicators dikhata hai, jisme MA200, SAR aur Donchian range shamil hain. MA200 ke upar candle close hone ka intezaar karna behtar hoga, jo buy signal ko confirm kar sakta hai aur bullish momentum ko support karega.

USD/JPY
USD/JPY Analysis
USD/JPY kaafi dinon se market ki nazron mein hai, aur yeh pair traders ke liye ek popular choice hai. Abhi ke waqt mein, yeh pair U.S. aur Japan ke economic factors aur policies ka asar le raha hai. Yahan hum iska ek technical aur fundamental analysis karte hain.

Fundamental Analysis
USD/JPY ki movement ko do key factors drive karte hain:

1. U.S. Federal Reserve Policy: Agar Fed interest rates increase kare, toh USD ki demand barhti hai, jo USD/JPY ko upward push karta hai.


2. Bank of Japan Policy: BoJ zyada tar apni monetary policy ko ultra-loose rakhta hai, jo yen ki value ko kamzor karta hai. Agar BoJ ki taraf se koi unexpected policy change hota hai, toh yeh USD/JPY ko major volatility de sakta hai.



Economic indicators, jaise U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls, CPI data, aur Japan ka GDP, bhi major role play karte hain. Is waqt U.S. economy stable lag rahi hai, jabke Japan inflation ko handle karne mein issues face kar raha hai.

Technical Analysis
Charts par dekha jaye, toh USD/JPY kaafi dafa 150.00 ki resistance level ko test kar chuka hai. Agar yeh level todta hai, toh next target 152.00 ya 153.50 ho sakta hai. Neeche ki taraf 148.50 aur 147.00 key support levels hain.
Indicators jaise RSI aur MACD suggest kar rahe hain ke market slightly overbought zone mein hai. Lekin trend abhi bullish lagta hai. Moving averages (50-day aur 200-day) ka alignment bhi bullish hai.

Final Thoughts
Agar aap USD/JPY trade karna chahte hain, toh Fed aur BoJ ke policies ka closely analysis karna zaroori hai. Short-term mein, bullish bias prevail karta hai, lekin geopolitical tensions ya unexpected data release se market ka direction jaldi badal sakta hai. Risk management ke saath hi koi position lena better hai.

Traders ke liye advice hai ke apne charts aur news par nazar banaye rakhein aur scalping se zyada long-term positions ke liye plan karein.

Abhi ke waqt USD/JPY ka price resistance zone 156.89 par hai, jo is baat ka izhar karta hai ke market mein upward momentum maujood hai. Indicators ke mutabiq price mein girawat ka koi khas signal nazar nahi aa raha aur buying kaafi relevant lag rahi hai. RSI ka current value 51.9782 hai, jo buying pressure ko zahir karta hai. Saath hi MACD indicator bhi zero level ke upar hai, jo further bullish movement ki nishani hai. Price agar 50 EMA level 150.64 aur 20 EMA level 149.20 ko tod deta hai, toh bulls mazeed active ho sakte hain. Agar resistance levels dekhein toh pehla target resistance 156.89 ke upar hai, aur 162.24 ka level next logical target ho sakta hai.Agar price 162.24 ke upar break kar leta hai, toh 170.77 ka third resistance level ho sakta hai. Doosri taraf agar price girta hai, toh sabse qareebi support level 140.67 par hoga. Iske neeche 127.90 ka second support level aur 116.34 ka third support level hai, jahan girawat continue ho sakti hai.
Intraday trading ke liye sabse expected scenario price ka 162.24 level tak pohanchna hai.USD/JPY pair iss December mein focus mein hai, kyun ke yeh U.S. aur Japan ki monetary policies ke beech divergence ko reflect karta hai. U.S. Federal Reserve ki tightening policies aur Japan ke ultra-loose monetary policies ka asar price ke movement par hai.
Fundamental Factors:
U.S. Federal Reserve ki policy inflation ko control karne ke liye interest rates barhane par focused hai, jiski wajah se USD strong hai aur investors ko zyada returns mil rahe hain. Wahi Japan ki Bank of Japan (BoJ) negative interest rates aur yield curve control ko follow kar rahi hai, jo yen ko weaken karta hai aur dollar ko ek safe haven banata hai.
Technical Levels:
USD/JPY abhi 151.56 ke aas-paas hai. Agar yeh level tod diya jaye, toh 151.90 aur phir 155.00 ka mark test ho sakta hai.Lekin support levels 151.40 aur 150.90 significant barriers ban sakte hain.Agar price 151.00 se neeche girta hai toh sentiment yen ki taraf shift ho sakta hai aur further girawat ka signal mil sakta hai.

USD/JPY H4
USD/JPY ka H4 chart yeh dikhata hai ke price ne 149.70 ke aas-paas support zone se mazboot rebound kiya hai. Ab yeh 151.70 ke qareeb trade kar raha hai, jo ek significant resistance level hai. Yeh rebound market ke andar buyers ki wapsi ko zahir karta hai, lekin aage ki movement resistance ke breach hone ya na hone par depend karegi۔
Tekneeki Mushahidaat:
1. Moving Averages (MA): Chart par 50-MA aur 200-MA ka nazara ho raha hai۔ Price is waqt 200-period MA ke qareeb hai, jo ek major resistance ka kaam karega۔ Agar price is level ke upar close kar leta hai, to bullish momentum barh sakta hai aur agla target 152.50 ya us se upar ho sakta hai۔ Lekin agar price wahan se reject hota hai, to yeh neeche gir kar 150.50 ya 149.70 ki taraf ja sakta hai۔
2. Stochastic Oscillator: Stochastic indicator mid-range par hai, jo ke selling pressure ko zahir kar raha hai۔ Pehle oversold zone se recovery hui thi, lekin ab price overbought area ke kareeb hai, jo possible downside ko point out kar raha hai۔
3. Parabolic SAR: SAR dots price ke neeche hain, jo ek bullish trend ko zahir karte hain۔ Lekin resistance ke paas slowdown hote hi reversal ka khatra hai۔
Tajziya aur Mashwara:
Agar price 200-MA ke upar strong close kar leta hai, to buyers dominate karenge aur price 152.50 ke target ki taraf barh sakta hai۔ Lekin agar price neeche girta hai aur 151.00 ka support todta hai, to yeh bearish momentum ko activate kar sakta hai aur 149.70 tak decline ho sakta hai. Short-term trades ke liye, price action aur indicators ki tasdeeq ka intezar karein۔ Scalping ke liye 151.00 ke neeche sell setups ya 152.00 ke upar buy setups ko monitor karein۔ Risk management zaroor istamal karein aur stop loss levels define kar ke trade karein. Yeh tajziya sirf educational maqasid ke liye hai۔ Apni trading strategy ke liye maher se mashwara zaroor karei.

۔

USD/JPY H4 Analysis
Is chart ke mutabiq USD/JPY ne recent price action mein pehle strong downtrend dikhaya, jo 20 November se shuru hua aur lagataar girta raha. Price ne 154.95 ke resistance se gir kar 148.50 ke qareeb bottom banaya. Yeh decline consistent selling pressure aur bearish momentum ki wajah se hua. Indicators ne is period ke dauran strong bearish signals diye, jisme price lower highs aur lower lows banati rahi.
Lekin December ke shuruat mein trend reversal dekhne ko mila. Price ne apni bottom se recover karte huye upward movement start ki, aur ab chart par uptrend ka clear signal mil raha hai. Price ne 151.00 ka critical level tod diya aur ab 151.67 ke aas-paas trade kar rahi hai. Indicators, jaise moving averages aur other oscillators, upward momentum ko support karte nazar aa rahe hain.
H4 chart par dekha jaye toh price ab consolidation phase mein hai, jo is baat ki taraf ishara karta hai ke agla move directional breakout ke baad hoga. Agar price apni current bullish momentum barkarar rakhti hai, toh agle resistance levels jo target ho sakte hain, wo 152.15 aur 152.85 hain. Yeh levels pehle bhi price ke liye strong resistance ka kaam kar chuke hain, lekin agar yeh tod diye gaye toh price aur bhi higher ja sakti hai.
Support Levels:
Neeche ki taraf 151.00 aur us se neeche 150.50 key support levels hain. Agar price 151.00 ke neeche girti hai, toh yeh short-term bearish correction ka sabab ban sakta hai, jo price ko 150.50 tak le ja sakti hai.
Indicators aur Trends:
Moving averages price ko support kar rahe hain, aur upward trajectory sustain ho rahi hai. Magar price kaafi close hai apni resistance zone ke, is liye retracement ya consolidation ka imkaan hai.
Conclusion:
USD/JPY ka trend filhal bullish hai, aur agar price 152.15 ka resistance todti hai, toh aur growth ka imkaan hai. Traders ko support aur resistance levels par nazar rakhni chahiye aur breakout ke liye tayar rehna chahiye.

دسمبر 11 2024 کو امریکی ڈالر/جاپانی ین کے لیے پیشن گوئی

پچھلے دو دنوں میں، امریکی ڈالر/جاپانی ین جوڑا 152.16 پر درمیانی مزاحمتی سطح تک پہنچ گیا ہے کیونکہ یہ 153.60 کے ہدف کی طرف بڑھ رہا ہے۔ تاہم، صورتحال بتاتی ہے کہ 153.60 کا ہدف حاصل نہیں ہو سکتا۔ اس کا اشارہ مارلن آسیلیٹر سے ہوتا ہے، جو مارکیٹ سے آگے بڑھ رہا ہے اور ترقی کے علاقے کی حد کے قریب پہنچ گیا ہے۔



مارلن آسیلیٹر قیمت کے ہدف کی سطح تک پہنچنے سے بہت پہلے زیرو لائن کے ساتھ تعامل کر سکتا ہے۔ قیمت میں الٹ پھیر اور آسیلیٹر موجودہ سطحوں پر واقع ہو سکتا ہے، جو کہ ایک مضبوط نیچے کے رجحان کے اندر اس اصلاحی نمو کی معتدل نوعیت کی عکاسی کرتا ہے (یہاں تک کہ مارلن کے زیرو لائن تک پہنچے بغیر)۔ مزید برآں، بینک آف جاپان کی میٹنگ اگلے ہفتے ہونے والی ہے۔

٤- گھنٹے کے چارٹ پر، مارلن آسیلیٹر ایک حد کے اندر (گرے زون کے طور پر نشان زد) ایک توسیعی مدت کے لیے حرکت کر رہا ہے۔ قیمت 152.16 تک پہنچنے کے بعد، آسیلیٹر تیزی سے نیچے کی طرف مڑ گیا۔ آسیلیٹر نہ صرف رینج سے بلکہ مثبت علاقے سے بھی نیچے جانے والا ہے۔

اگر جوڑا ایم. اے. سی. ڈی. لائن کے نیچے 150.07 پر مضبوط ہو جاتا ہے — حالانکہ یہ سطح ابھی بھی 160 پِپس دور ہے — کمی کی نئی لہر میں قیمت کے الٹ جانے کی تصدیق ہو جائے گی۔ بینک اف جاپان میٹنگ سے پہلے کافی وقت ہے، قیمت کو 150.83 سے اوپر مستحکم کرنے کی اجازت دیتا ہے۔



تعینات کیا مراد ہے مارکیٹ کے تجزیات یہاں ارسال کیے جاتے ہیں جس کا مقصد آپ کی بیداری بڑھانا ہے، لیکن تجارت کرنے کے لئے ہدایات دینا نہیں*

USD/JPY ke liye ek achha trading scenario dikhati hai. Recent price action 152.20 ke qareeb aapki expected trading range 152.20 aur 152.70 ke darmiyan hai. Agar pair ne 152.20 ko tod diya, to EMA200 par 151.65 ka target logical lagta hai, khas tor par jab inflation data kamzor hai aur Fed ke rate hike expectations halki ho sakti hain.
Lekin, jab pair Ichimoku cloud ke upar trade kar raha hai aur bullish momentum dikha raha hai, to 152.20 ke upar wapas aana buying opportunities trigger kar sakta hai 152.70 ki taraf, aur agla resistance 153.88 ke qareeb hai. Stochastic ka overbought zone me hona ehtiyaat ka ishara deta hai, kyun ke correction ho sakta hai pehle bullish move se pehle. Agar bears market me wapas aa gaye, to 148.72 par support critical hoga.
Overall, price ka behavior 152.20 aur EMA200 ke aas-paas dekhna zaruri hoga agla move determine karne ke liye. Aapka sales ko priority dena jab tak koi confirmed bullish breakout na ho, ek acha strategy lagta hai. Filhaal price ka resistance point 153.50 par hai. Yeh umeed ki ja sakti hai ke market aur bhi upar ja sakta hai. Price ke 157.63 tak pohanchne ke imkaanaat zyada hain, aur uske baad target 161.96 hoga, jo ke teesra resistance level hai.
Dusri taraf, USD/JPY ka chhota support level 149.30 par hai. Agar price ne yeh support level tod diya, to agla target 145.99 hoga. Iske baad, pair ke neeche ki taraf trade karte rehne ki umeed hai, jahan final target 140.40 ka hai.
Umeed hai yeh analysis aapke liye aur forum ke tamam readers ke liye mufeed hoga.

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

USD/JPY Forecast: Uptrend Intact After CPI Release

USD/JPY lagbhag 8% barh chuka hai October ke aakhir se, jisme zyadatar faida US dollar ka raha aur yen lagataar bearish zone mein raha hai.

CPI Ka Asar
US ka annual CPI 2.7% y/y record kiya gaya hai, jiski wajah se session ke dauraan USD/JPY mein koi khaas harkat nahi hui. Market ab BOJ ke faislay ka intezar kar raha hai jo December 18-19 ko hoga. Yeh faisla kabhi yen ke liye bullish strength ka sabab bana tha aur ab USD/JPY ke liye ek naya bearish moka paish kar sakta hai.

150-yen-per-dollar ka zone bohot aham ban gaya hai, aur yeh zaruri hai ke pair is level ke upar apni position barqaraar rakhe taake upward trend chalta rahe.

Haal hi mein, USD/JPY ke downward corrections ka sabab BOJ ke hawkish comments aur US rate expectations hain, jiski wajah se USD/JPY ko 156-yen-per-dollar peak maintain karne mein mushkilat hui hai.

CPI Ka Asar
Nayi US inflation data ke mutabiq CPI 2.7% y/y (0.3% m/m) raha, jo forecast ke mutabiq tha. Iska pehla asar USD/JPY par 0.35% ka upward movement tha, lekin session neutral raha.

CPI ka forecast ke daira mein rehna market ke liye ek important paigham hai ke abhi inflation control se bahar nahi hai. Yeh FED ko low-interest-rate outlook barqaraar rakhne ka moka de sakta hai. CME Group ke probability chart ke mutabiq agle hafte ke liye 4.25%-4.5% range mein rate reduction ka chance 96% hai. Lekin agar January mein yeh trend barh gaya toh yeh US dollar ki strength kam kar sakta hai aur USD/JPY ke upward oscillations ke liye khatra ho sakta hai.

BOJ Kya Kar Raha Hai?
March se BOJ ne negative interest rate policy ko chhoda hai aur July mein 0.25% interest rate establish kiya. Lekin yeh step dobara nahi uthaya gaya, aur December 18-19 ka final BOJ decision kaafi aham hai.

Japan ki inflation trends ke mutabiq October mein 2.3% tak slowdown dekha gaya jo September mein 2.5% thi. Yeh downward trend central bank ke liye interest rate barhane ka sabab kamzor kar sakta hai, jo yen ko mazeed kamzor aur USD/JPY ke bullish trend ko barqaraar rakh sakta hai.

Japan ka interest rate 0.25% hai jabke US ka 4.5%-4.75% hai. Yeh difference US ke fixed-income securities ko zyada attractive banata hai, jo US dollar ki demand ko barhata hai aur yen ke muqable mein dollar ko mazeed strong karta hai.

USD/JPY Technical Forecast
USD/JPY Daily chart mein September se upward trend par hai aur abhi 156-yen-per-dollar peak par tha. Economic events ki wajah se strength kam hui hai aur ab price 152-yen-per-dollar zone mein hai.

Triple Support
150-yen-per-dollar sabse kareeb support hai jo short-term bullish trend aur 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level ke saath align karta hai. Is level ke neeche oscillations buying strength ko kamzor aur short positions ke liye rasta khol sakti hain.

Indicator Neutrality
TRIX indicator ke recent signals ke mutabiq:

Line ki slope bearish ho gayi hai, jo bullish momentum mein kami ko dikhata hai aur short-term bearish corrections la sakta hai.
Line 0 level ke qareeb hai, jo market ki buying aur selling strength ka equilibrium hai. Is level ke neeche crossover bullish momentum ko khatam kar sakta hai.
4H timeframe dikhata hai ke CPI announcement ke baad price 152-zone mein minor upward movements kar raha hai.



Key Levels

• 152.70: Yeh level agle sessions ke liye pehla hurdle hai. Agar price is zone ko todta hai, toh bullish momentum mazboot ho sakta hai aur agle upward movements ko support mil sakta hai.
• 153.80: Yeh ek significant resistance hai jo November ke dauraan teen baar price movement ke liye barrier raha. Is level ke upar ka movement bullish trend ke continuation ka indication dega.
• 150.00: Yeh ek ahem support level hai jo short-term bullish trend ke liye pivotal hai. Agar price is level ke neeche girta hai, toh yeh bearish sentiment ko barhawa dega aur downward pressure create karega.

Technical Indicators

Fibonacci Retracement: 38.2% ka level (150-yen-per-dollar) ek major support hai. Agar yeh toot gaya, toh 50% aur 61.8% retracement levels agle potential supports banenge.
TRIX (Triple Exponential Average): TRIX ka bearish slope yeh dikhata hai ke short-term bullish momentum weaken ho raha hai. Agar TRIX neutral line (0 level) ke neeche cross karta hai, toh yeh downward trend ke shuru hone ka signal ho sakta hai.
Short-Term View
4H timeframe par current upward movements ek narrow bullish trend channel ko represent karte hain. Agar CPI ka asar neutral raha aur market BOJ ke faislay ka intezar karta hai, toh price is channel ke andar hi oscillate karega.

Long-Term View
USD/JPY ke long-term bullish trend ka asar interest rate differential ke wajah se barqaraar reh sakta hai. Lekin agar BOJ apne hawkish stance ko continue karta hai aur yen ko stabilize karne ke liye additional measures leta hai, toh USD/JPY ka trend bearish ho sakta hai.

USD/JPY ka current trend 150-yen-per-dollar zone ke upar consolidate kar raha hai. Upcoming BOJ decision aur US rate policies is pair ke liye decisive factors honge. Technical analysis ke mutabiq, agla bullish target 153.80 aur uske baad 160.00 ho sakta hai, jabke major support 150.00 par hai.

Market participants ke liye zaruri hai ke woh upcoming economic data aur central bank ke statements ko closely monitor karein taake apni trading strategy ko accordingly adjust kar sakein.

USD/JPY Analysis (H4 Timeframe)
Chart ka tajziya karein to nazar aata hai ke USD/JPY pair is waqt 153.04 ke kareeb trade kar raha hai. Pichle chand mahino mein market ne pehle aik zabardast downtrend dikhaya, lekin September ke baad price ne recovery shuru ki hai. Moving average ka istamal karte hue dekha ja sakta hai ke price ab upward momentum mein hai, aur filhal ye support aur resistance ke darmiyan range-bound hai.
Pehli nazar mein, price ne 151.00 ka support test kiya tha, jo ek strong level sabit hua. Ab price gradually upar ki taraf ja raha hai aur 153.50 ka resistance todne ki koshish kar raha hai. Agar price is resistance ko tod leta hai aur is level ke upar close karta hai, to agla target 155.80 aur uske baad 158.20 ho sakta hai. Lekin agar price neeche girta hai aur 151.00 ka support todta hai, to market phir se bearish ho sakti hai, aur price aglay support level 148.00 tak ja sakta hai.
Technical Indicators:

• Moving average ka analysis dikhata hai ke trend abhi bullish hai.
• Volume indicators se pata chal raha hai ke market mein interest gradually barh raha hai, jo buyers ke liye acha signal hai.
• Support levels: 151.00 aur 148.00
• Resistance levels: 153.50, 155.80, aur 158.20

Trading Strategy:
Agar price 153.50 tod kar upar close karta hai, to buy entry dena munasib hoga. Stop loss 151.50 par lagayein taake risk manage ho. Take profit ka pehla target 155.80 aur agla 158.20 rakhein. Dusri taraf, agar price gir kar 151.00 ke neeche close karta hai, to selling ke liye position dekhi ja sakti hai, jahan target 148.00 ho sakta hai.
Market ka tajziya karte hue hamesha risk management ka khayal rakhein aur apni strategy mein discipline banayein. Short-term fluctuations ke bawajood, long-term trend abhi bullish lag raha hai, magar major resistance levels ko todna zaroori hoga.

Assalamu Alaikum Dosto!

Yen About to Mark Biggest Weekly Loss Since September

Japanese yen ne Asian trade mein Friday ko mazeed girawat dekhi, aur ab yeh lagataar paanchwin din decline kar raha hai dollar ke muqable mein. Yeh do hafton ki neeche wali level par aa gaya hai aur September ke baad sabse bara weekly loss record karne wala hai, kyun ke agle hafte Japanese interest rate hike ki umeedain kam hoti nazar aa rahi hain.

BOJ Ka Faisla
Aakhri media reports ke mutabiq, Bank of Japan shayad interest rates ko change nahi karega aur policy ko normalize karne mein jaldbazi nahi karega.

Price Ka Haal
USD/JPY aaj 0.7% barh kar 153 yen per dollar par pahunch gaya, jo November 27 ke baad sabse uncha level hai, jabke session-low 152.45 tha.
Yen Thursday ko dollar ke muqable mein 0.1% gira, lagataar chauthe din neeche raha, jo higher US yields ka asar tha.

Weekly Trades
Yen is hafte dollar ke muqable mein 2.1% gir chuka hai, jo lagataar doosra weekly loss hai aur September ke baad ka sabse bara girawat hai.

Media Reports
Reuters ke mutabiq, paanch alag sources ne kaha ke Bank of Japan agle hafte interest rates ko unchanged rakhne ke haq mein hai, kyun ke woh abhi bhi international risks aur wages ka forecast dekh rahe hain.

Sources ka kehna hai ke BOJ mein abhi bhi faislay par consensus nahi hai, lekin kuch members yeh samajhte hain ke Japan ne December mein interest rates barhane ki sharaait poori kar li hain.

Japanese Rates
Report ke baad, BOJ ke taraf se 0.25% interest rate hike ki umeed 65% se gir kar 25% tak aa gayi hai.

Daily Chart aur US Export Prices
Ab agar Friday ki US session ki baat ki jaye, toh export price data US dollar demand ko asar daal sakta hai. Girti hui export prices US maal ki demand mein kami ka signal de sakti hain, jo USD/JPY pair ko 149.358 support level tak le ja sakta hai.

US exports GDP ka takreeban 10% contribute karte hain, jo US economy ke baare mein insights dete hain. Lekin agar data expectations se behtar aaya, toh USD/JPY 156.885 resistance level ki taraf barh sakta hai.

Export price trends US dollar demand ko temporarily influence karenge, lekin agle hafte ke Fed interest rate decision ko yeh asar nahi dalenge. Recent labor market aur inflation data ne December mein 25-basis point Fed rate cut ki umeedain mazboot kar di hain.

Comprehensive analysis par mabni trading
USD/JPY
Assalam Alaikum! Kal, US dollar/Japanese yen joda sideways channel se bahar nikalne me nakam raha. Aaj, kharidaron ne aakhir kar 152.87 ki muzahmati satah ko tod diya hai, aur qimat ab is nishan se ooper mustahkam hone ki koshish kar rahi hai. Agar yah kamyab ho jata hai to, ek kharid signal paida hoga, jis me dollar/yen ki jodi 154.70 muzahmati satah ki shakal me agle hadaf ki taraf badh rahi hai. Agar 152.87 ka breakout ghalat sabit hota hai to, ek sell signal paida hoga, jiske sath jodi hadd ke andar apne sideways movement ko dobara shuru karegi. Is surat me, jald bazi karne ki koi zarurat nahin hai, kiyunkeh abhi tak yah wazeh nahin hai keh qimat kis simt ka intekhab karegi. Barahe karam zehan me rakhen keh aaj Jumah hai, jo tejarati hafte ka aakhri din hai. Jumah ko, qimat aksar aam rujhan ke khilaf chalti hai.

دسمبر 13 2024 کو امریکی ڈالر/جاپانی ین کے لیے پیشن گوئی

ڈالر ین کے خلاف اپنی جنگ میں اسے کلیدی تکنیکی سطحوں (150.83، 152.16) سے نیچے دھکیلنے کی تمام کوششوں کی کامیابی کے ساتھ مزاحمت کرتا ہے۔ یہ لچک جزوی طور پر مارکیٹ میں ڈالر کی مجموعی طور پر مضبوطی اور 19 دسمبر کو بینک آف جاپان کی مانیٹری پالیسی میٹنگ سے قبل باقی وقت کی وجہ سے ہے۔



تاہم، جوڑے کی موجودہ ترقی کی رفتار کے حوالے سے احتیاط کی ضرورت ہے۔ قیمت 152.16 کی انٹرمیڈیٹ مزاحمتی سطح کو عبور کرنے کے بعد، پہلا ہدف 153.60 ہے۔ اس سطح کو بیلنس لائن سے اضافی تعاون حاصل ہوتا ہے۔ ایک ہی وقت میں، مارلن آسیلیٹر اپنے گروتھ زون کی حد تک پہنچ سکتا ہے کیونکہ قیمت اس سطح تک پہنچتی ہے، ممکنہ طور پر وہاں سے پلٹ جاتی ہے۔

اگر قیمت 153.60 کو توڑنے کا انتظام کرتی ہے، تو اگلی انٹرمیڈیٹ لیول 154.72 (7 نومبر کی چوٹی) پر عمل میں آتا ہے۔ 153.60 سے اوپر ایک غلط بریک آؤٹ بناتے ہوئے اس مقام سے الٹ پھیر ہو سکتی ہے۔ یہ اقدام بینک آف جاپان کی میٹنگ کے ساتھ ہو سکتا ہے۔



ایچ -٤ چارٹ پر، مارلن آسیلیٹر کی سگنل لائن اپنی توسیع شدہ کنسولیڈیشن رینج کی نچلی حد سے اوپر کی طرف مڑ گئی ہے۔ اشارے کی لکیریں بھی ترقی کی طرف اشارہ کرتی ہیں، اور قیمت 152.16 کی سطح سے اوپر مستحکم ہو گئی ہے۔ 153.60 کا ہدف اب کھلا ہے۔

تعینات کیا مراد ہے مارکیٹ کے تجزیات یہاں ارسال کیے جاتے ہیں جس کا مقصد آپ کی بیداری بڑھانا ہے، لیکن تجارت کرنے کے لئے ہدایات دینا نہیں*

Aaj ke din Japanese Yen (JPY) ne halka sa recovery dikhaya jo ke US Dollar (USD) ke mukable mein do hafton ke neeche level se upar aaya. Yeh recovery zyada tar geopolitical tensions aur ek possible trade war ke concerns ki wajah se hui jinhon ne investors ko safe assets ki taraf le jaane par majboor kiya. Doosri taraf, US Dollar ne apna monthly high achieve karte hue apni upward momentum ko barqarar rakha. Lekin Bank of Japan (BOJ) ke ultra-loose monetary policy ko continue karne ki umeedon ne Yen ke downside ko limited rakha. Is ke ilawa US Treasury yields ka barhna, jo Federal Reserve ke cautious approach ki expectations se driven hai US Dollar ko support karta raha.Agar technical analysis dekha jaye toh USD/JPY pair abhi 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) aur recent decline ke 50% Fibonacci retracement level ke upar trade kar raha hai jo ek strong upward bias ka signal deta hai. Lekin, yeh pair resistance face kar sakta hai 153.00 aur 153.65 levels ke qareeb.Agar price in levels ko todta hai toh yeh 154.00 level tak barhne ki sambhavana hai.Dusri taraf, 152.70-152.80 ka support zone jo 200-day SMA aur 50% Fibonacci retracement level ko include karta hai ek crucial area hai.Agar yeh zone tod diya jaye, toh price 151.75 level tak gir sakti hai, jo ke 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level hai. Aage chal kar 151.00 aur 150.50 ke support levels ka bhi test ho sakta hai. Larger time frame trend ke mutabiq market ab tak buyers ke control mein chal rahi hai.4-hour time frame mein EUR/JPY pair ne week ke shuru mein 163.16 se apna safar shuru kiya, jo buyers ke influence ko dikhata hai. Candlestick abhi Simple Moving Average 100 zone ke upar consolidate kar rahi hai jo bullish trend ki taraf ishara karti hai agar fundamentals is trend ko support karein. Market consolidation ki wajah se is waqt trading signal ka intezar karna hoga, aur agle week tak ek clear direction mil sakti hai.

USD/JPY pair ka technical analysis dikhata hai ke market abhi bhi bullish sentiment ko support kar raha hai. Daily chart ke mutabiq, MA100 north ki taraf ja raha hai, jo ke strong bullish momentum ka signal deta hai, jabke MA18 jo pehle downward tha, ab wapas north ki taraf badhne laga hai. Yeh dono moving averages growth ke liye ek solid base provide karte hain. Saath hi, Ichimoku Cloud bullish colors mein hai aur iska body mazid thick ho raha hai, bands 30-degree angle ke saath north ki taraf move karte huye dikhai dete hain, jo ke bulls ke liye ek positive signal hai. MACD ne bearish wave ko tod diya hai aur ek fresh buy signal provide kiya hai. Extended oscillator bhi oversold zone mein gaya bagair upward movement ki taraf signal de raha hai. Yeh sab indicators is baat ki tasdeeq karte hain ke bulls abhi bhi control mein hain. Main ne apni trading plan ke mutabiq 151.939, 152.157 aur 152.427 ke levels par buy karne ka plan banaya hai. In levels se buy karte huye, profit targets 153.299 aur 153.569 ke Fibonacci levels tak rakhe gaye hain. Agar market in levels ko todta hai, to mazeed gains ki umeed hai. H4 chart ke analysis se pata chalta hai ke EMA8 support provide kar raha hai, jo ab 153.20 ke aas-paas hai. Agar price rollback karta hai, to 152.75 tak gir sakta hai, lekin overall trend bullish hi lagta hai. Mera resistance level 154.50 par hai, aur mujhe umeed hai ke agle hafte tak price is level ko test karega. Yeh bhi ho sakta hai ke price agle hafte ke shuru mein thoda niche aaye, lekin major downward move ki umeed nahi hai. Federal Reserve aur Bank of Japan ki rate announcements ke wajah se agle hafte market volatile reh sakti hai. Mujhe lagta hai ke price 154.90 ke level ko test karega aur ho sakta hai 155.85 tak bhi chala jaye.Yeh sab trading decisions karte waqt money management ka khayal rakhna zaroori hai aur positions ko breakeven par transfer karke risks ko minimize karna chahiye.

USD/JPY H4 Analysis
Chart ke mutabiq, USD/JPY ka price 153.63 par trade kar raha hai, jo ke ek mazboot bullish trend ka indication de raha hai. Recent price movement ne bullish momentum ko confirm kiya hai, aur price ab upward trajectory par hai. Parabolic SAR dots price ke niche hain, jo is baat ki tasdeeq karte hain ke market abhi bhi buyers ke control mein hai. Moving Average bhi upward slope dikhata hai, jo mazid bullish continuation ka signal hai.
MACD indicator ka bullish crossover dekhne ko mila hai, jo market ke andar fresh buying interest ka izafa dikhata hai. RSI abhi 67 ke kareeb hai, jo abhi overbought zone se door hai. Yeh suggest karta hai ke price ke liye abhi bhi upward potential mojood hai.
Support levels par nazar dalain, to 152.20 ka area ek strong support ke tor par kaam kar sakta hai. Agar price kisi wajah se is level ke niche jata hai, to market mein bearish pressure barh sakta hai, jo price ko neeche le ja sakta hai. Dusri taraf, resistance ka pehla level 153.90-154.00 ke aas paas hai. Agar price 154 ke upar close kar jata hai, to yeh mazid bullish rally ka signal ho sakta hai, jahan price 155 ya usse upar ke levels ko target kar sakta hai.
Aise market setup mein traders ko buy positions consider karni chahiye, magar zaroori hai ke risk management ka khas khayal rakha jaye. Stop loss ko 152.50 ke kareeb rakhna ek safe option ho sakta hai, taake kisi bhi unexpected bearish move se bacha ja sake. Profit targets ko 154 aur 155 ke levels par set karna ek acha strategy ho sakta hai.
Agar price 152 ke niche girta hai, to bearish trend ka wapas ana mumkin hai, aur us surat mein sell setups zyada attractive ho sakte hain. Filhaal market buyers ke control mein lagta hai, magar hamesha indicators aur price action ka closely review zaruri hai.