USD/JPY ایکسچینج ریٹ: آج کی قیمت اور مارکیٹ تجزیہ

USD/JPY ke liye Trade Analysis aur Trading Tips

147.12 ke price level ki test MACD indicator ke zero line se neeche move karne aur oversold area mein kuch der tak rehte hue hui thi. Yeh dollar ko buy karne ke liye sufficient tha, anticipating its recovery. Doosri test 147.12 ne market mein correct entry point ko confirm kiya, jisse 30 points se zyada rise hua.

Pair ne channel se breakout nahi kiya, largely anticipated important statistics U.S. economy ke liye. Market ko U.S. retail sales ki report aur FOMC member Patrick T. Harker ke speech se influence ho sakta hai, jo dovish stance ke liye known hai, jo dollar ko additional challenges pose kar sakta hai agar fundamental statistics disappoint kare.

Intraday strategy ke liye, main scenario No. 1 aur No. 2 ko implement karne ka plan kar raha hoon.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Aaj, main USD/JPY ko buy karne ka plan kar raha hoon jab price 147.46 (chart par green line) par pahunch jaye, target 148.14 (chart par thicker green line) par rise karne ka. 148.14 par, main apne long positions ko close karke short positions ko opposite direction mein open karunga (30-35 points ki move ki expectation).

Scenario No. 2: Main aaj USD/JPY ko buy karne ka plan kar raha hoon agar 147.06 ke price level ki do consecutive tests hote hain jab MACD indicator oversold area mein h



Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: Aaj, main USD/JPY ko sell karne ka plan kar raha hoon jab 147.06 ke level (chart par red line) ko update kiya jaye, jisse pair ki quick decline hogi. Sellers ke liye key target 146.32 level hoga, jahan main apne short positions ko close karke immediately long positions ko opposite direction mein open karunga.

Scenario No. 2: Main aaj USD/JPY ko sell karne ka plan kar raha hoon agar 147.46 ke price level ki do consecutive tests hote hain jab MACD indicator overbought area mein ho

Aise mein pair resistance levels 145.91 aur shayad 146.24 ki taraf barh sakta hai. Lekin agar ye upward movement ko maintain nahi karti, to bearish trend aur bhi mazboot ho sakta hai, khaaskar agar pair 145.05 ke neeche girti hai. Aise mein further declines dekhne ko mil sakti hain, price 144.88 tak ja sakti hai aur shayad 144.25 tak bhi extend ho sakti hai. Bigger context bhi bearish sentiment ko support karta hai. Pair monthly Pivot level 146.24, weekly Pivot level 145.29, aur daily Pivot level 145.91 se neeche trade kar raha hai. Ye indicators USD/JPY par overall downward pressure ko reflect karte hain. Monthly Pivot level pehle 153.85 tha, jo market dynamics mein significant shift ko highlight karta hai. Isi tarah, weekly Pivot level pehle 147.65 tha, jo recent period mein downward trend ko darshata hai. USD/JPY pair mein aik tezi se girawat dekhi gayi hai, jo ke 145.00 ke qareeb pohanch gayi hai. Is girawat ka sabab Bank of Japan ke Governor Kazuo Ueda ki hawkish guidance thi. Ueda ne ye dohraya ke BOJ ko iss saal interest rates mazeed barhane ki zarurat hai, aur agar economic aur inflationary conditions expectations ke mutabiq hon, toh central bank kisi bhi qadam uthane mein hichkichahat nahi karega. Is bayaan se Japanese yen mein mazid izafa hua, jis ne USD/JPY pair par selling pressure daal diya. Is waqt yeh 144.80 support level ke aas paas hold kar rahi hai.
USD/JPY pair ke overnight decline ka sabab bani. Iske ilawa, US manufacturing sector se aayi negative data, jo ke dopahar mein release hui, ne mazeed decline ko fuel kiya. Filhal yen zyada tar ek haven ke tor par kaam kar raha hai, doosri major currencies ke muqable mein dollar ke khilaf. Aaj S&P 500 index kareeban 3% gira, jo yeh indicate karta hai ke yen ki haven ke tor par demand barh rahi hai. A slight pullback is pair ko "discount" par khareedne ka moqa faraham karta hai. Lekin yeh market hai, aur yehan hamesha unexpected movements ho sakti hain. Main dekh raha hoon ke yeh pair 144.89 support level ke aas-paas kis tarah react karta hai, jabke broader market sentiment par bhi nazar rakhi hui hai.

Pair filhal 143.10 ke aas-paas hover kar raha hai jabke ye weekly peak 143.80 se retreat kar gaya hai, jo ke early US trading hours mein Monday ko dekha gaya tha. Is decline ka sabab softer US Dollar (USD) aur market sentiment ka safe-haven assets ki taraf shift hona hai. Traders ab Thursday ko aane wali weekly US Initial Jobless Claims report ka intezaar kar rahe hain, jo ke US ki economic aur employment conditions ke hawalay se nayi insights de sakti hai. Pair abhi takriban 143.14 ke level par trade kar raha hai.
**USD/JPY ke Fundamentals:**

Recent Bank of Japan (BoJ) ke June meeting minutes ke hawalay se kuch members mein rising import prices ko le kar concern barh raha hai, jo ke weak JPY ki wajah se ho rahe hain. Yeh inflationary pressures mein izafa kar sakte hain. Ek member ne highlight kiya ke cost-push inflation agar inflation expectations aur wage growth ko barha de to ye underlying inflation ko aur zyada exacerbate kar sakta hai. Iske ilawa, BoJ ka Quarterly Outlook Report jo ke Thursday ko release kiya gaya, is baat ka izhar karta hai ke wages aur inflation expectations se zyada barh sakti hain, jo ke inflation expectations aur tighter labor market ki taraf le ja sakta hai.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee ne indicate kiya ke agar economic ya financial conditions deteriorate karti hain to Federal Reserve action lene ke liye tayyar hai. Goolsbee ne emphasize kiya ke Fed ka forward-looking stance hai aur agar conditions collectively aise develop hoti hain jo deterioration show karain to hum usay fix karain ge, jese ke unhon ne Reuters ko bataya. Yeh Fed ki commitment ko underscore karta hai ke wo possible economic challenges ko proactively address karain ge.

**Hourly Time Frame Technical Outlook:**

Technically, pair apne descending channel ki upper boundary test kar raha hai, jo ke 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke aas-paas 143.59 ke level par hai. Agar yeh resistance level break hota hai to bearish momentum kam ho sakta hai aur pair 144.50 ke "throwback support turned resistance" ko challenge kar sakta hai. Dosri taraf, agar pair apna upward trajectory maintain karne mein fail hota hai, to yeh descending channel ke lower boundary ko test kar sakta hai jo ke throwback support ke kareeb 140.21 ke level par hai, jo December mein observe kiya gaya tha.

USD/JPY currency pair ki qeemat ki haliya soorat-e-haal ka tajziya hai. USD/JPY pair ne abhi abhi 144.53 ke support level ko tor diya hai, jo yeh zahir karta hai ke downtrend ka silsila jari reh sakta hai. Breakout ke baad 99 points ki girawat hui, jis ke baad pair ne upward correction ki koshish ki, aur kharidaar 144.53 ke resistance level tak kuch ground wapas hasil karne mein kamyab hue. Iss muqam se sell positions kholna munasib ho sakta hai, aur mazeed girawat ka target 140-141 range tak ho sakta hai. Dosri surat mein, agar pair 144.53 resistance ke upar rebound hota hai, toh recovery jari reh sakti hai, aur agle resistance 146.38 tak ponchne ka aim ho sakta hai. Hourly chart par ek ascending channel jhanda ki tarah nazar aa raha hai, jo yeh suggest karta hai ke downtrend dobara shuru ho sakta hai. Lekin H4 chart par pair ek descending channel mein hai aur uski lower boundary se bounce off hua hai. Agar price 144.49 ko tor de, toh 145.69 ka target lekar khareedari ki strategy munasib ho sakti hai USD/JPY pair ne abhi hal hi mein 143 tak girawat dekhi thi, lekin American trading session ke akhir tak 100 points ka izafa hotay hue recovery ki. Daily price chart ab ek bullish pattern dikha raha hai. Bears abhi tak price ko 144.99 ke key level ke neeche dhakelne mein nakaam rahe hain, jis se downward trend ke jari rehne par shak paida hota hai. Maujooda market ki uncertainty ko dekhte hue, ki zaroorat hai, kyun ke price kuch dinon tak is level ke aas-paas reh sakti hai. US dollar index ne ek mazboot weekly support level ko choo liya hai, jo yeh zahir karta hai ke dollar jald hi ek corrective rebound kar sakta hai. Speaker is waqt sirf sell positions lene ka soch raha hai aur buy karne ka koi irada nahi rakhta. Currency pair ne neeche se 143.99 level ko test kiya hai aur ab 144.49 tak upar chali gayi hai, jo ek positive sign hai, aur bulls Asian trading session ke dauran price ko mazeed 49 points tak le jaa sakte hain. Maujooda price 143.43 hai, jo 141.70 ke aham support level se thoda upar hai. Yeh level unn traders ka key target ho sakta hai jo girawat par bet kar rahe hain. Kuch consolidation ke baad, pair mazeed girne ka rujhaan rakh sakta hai. Lekin Bank of Japan ke hone ke bawajood, USD/JPY ki exchange rate mein zyada girawat ki umeed nahi ki ja sakti. Woh pehle hi ishara de chuke hain ke woh yen ki qeemat mein tezi se utar chadhav par mudakhlat kar sakte hain, jo ke yen ko kamzor kar sakta hai agar yeh ziyada mazboot ho jaye. Is liye, 129 ka target haqeeqat par mabni nahi lagta

USD/JPY Market Forecast

Subah bakhair sab ko!
Kal USD/JPY market mein achanak bohat zyada girawat hui aur yeh 140.96 zone tak pohanch gaya. Yeh dikhata hai ke sellers ne apni position mazid qaim rakhna chor diya hai. Yaad rakhein ke trading mein kamiyabi kaafi had tak flexibility aur adaptability pe mabni hoti hai. Jabke abhi ke market data se lagta hai ke sell karne ka acha mauqa hai, traders ko hamesha hoshiyaar rehna chahiye aur naye maloomat ke mutabiq apni strategy adjust karni chahiye. Ismein aanay wale economic events pe nazar rakhna, ahem indicators ko closely dekhna jo kisi reversal ka ishara de sakte hain, aur mazboot risk management ka lagoo karna shamil hai. Ek ahem practice stop losses ka istemal hai, jo aapko unexpected market changes ke doran zyada nuqsan se bachata hai. Main short target 140.52 ke saath sell position ko pasand karta hoon.

USD/JPY market mein kaafi volatility hoti hai, aur sentiment bohat jaldi shift kar sakta hai unforeseen events, jaise ke central bank ke announcements, monetary policy mein tabdeeliyan, ya geopolitics developments ki waja se. Aise fast-paced environments mein, jo traders apni strategies ko jaldi adjust kar lete hain, wo zyada kamiyab rehte hain, jabke wo jo apne pehlay plan se chipak kar rehte hain, unhein mushkil ka samna ho sakta hai. Is liye, flexibility trading mein kamiyabi ke liye zaroori hai.

Halankeh current trends sellers ke haq mein lag rahe hain, yeh zaroori hai ke trading ko ehtiyat ke saath approach kiya jaye, kyunke financial markets ki nature kaafi unpredictable hoti hai. Volatility jaldi se aapke well-considered positions ko reverse kar sakti hai agar conditions achanak badal jayein. Stop losses ka istemal aur economic developments se bakhabar rehna capital ko protect karne ke liye nihayat ahem hai.

Akhir mein, trading mein kamiyabi ka raaz aksar market opportunities ko capitalize karne aur effective risk management ke darmiyan balance qaim karne mein hota hai. Umeed hai ke USD/JPY ka market support zone 140.52 ko cross karega.
Aap sab ke liye trading weekend bohot acha guzray!

US dollar ne Wednesday ke early hours mein tezi se girawat dekhi, lekin thodi der baad dobara kuch taqat hasil kar li. ¥142 ka level abhi spotlight mein hai kyun ke yeh pehle bhi kai martaba ek ahem support aur resistance area ke tor pe kaam kar chuka hai. Dollar ki is level ke ird gird recovery ek positive sign hai, aur agar pair daily chart par ¥142 ke upar close karne mein kamiyab hota hai, toh greenback ka outlook mazeed mazboot ho sakta hai. Aane wala economic data, jaise ke Wednesday ka Consumer Price Index (CPI) aur Thursday ka Producer Price Index (PPI), dollar ke aglay steps ka taayun karne mein aham kirdar ada karenge.

Yeh yaad rakhna zaroori hai ke jabke Japanese yen kuch waqt se overbought hai, recent market activity ne is pressure ko thoda kam kiya hai. Lekin agar din ke aakhir mein ¥141 ka level decisively break ho gaya, toh yeh pair ke liye ek major breakout ka ishara ho sakta hai. Agar dollar barhna jari rakhta hai, toh ¥144.3 ka level ek ahem area hai jise dekhna hoga. Agar yeh break hota hai, toh pair ka agla target ¥145 ho sakta hai, jo ek aur zaroori resistance point hai jo pehle bhi ahmiyat rakhta tha.

Yeh expectation ke bawajood ke Federal Reserve is mahine ke aakhir mein 25 basis points se interest rates cut karega, US dollar ko abhi bhi Japanese yen ke muqablay mein favorable interest rate differential ka faida mil raha hai. Yeh interest rate advantage dollar ko relative tor pe mazboot rakhta hai, chahe market rate cuts ki tawakko bhi rakh raha ho. Central bank ke faislay ka waqt bhi dekhne layak hai – Fed ka elan 18 ko aayega, uske do din baad Bank of Japan apna interest rate faisla sunayega. Yeh USD/JPY pair mein mazeed market volatility ka sabab ban sakta hai, jo aane wale hafton ko traders ke liye khaas banayega.

USDJPY pair ko bechne ke liye ziyata raaghib hain, shayad badalte hue economic halaat, geopolitical factors, ya technical signals ke wajah se jo pehle ke uptrend ko kamzor kar rahe hain. 146.86 zone tak girawat khaas ahmiyat rakhti hai kyunke yeh ek critical support level hai jise traders ghore se dekh rahe hain. Agar sellers apni momentum barqarar rakhte hain aur price ko is level se neeche le jate hain, to yeh ek lambe downtrend ki shuruaat ka ishara ho sakti hai. Iske ilawa, USDJPY par yeh bearish pressure ziyata economic concerns ka aks ho sakta hai. Misal ke taur par, agar US dollar kamzor ho raha hai due to softer economic data ya Federal Reserve ke dovish comments ke wajah se, to yeh pair ke decline mein ek sabab ban sakta hai. Dosri taraf, Japanese yen mein mazid taqat, shayad safe-haven demand ya positive domestic economic indicators ke wajah se, is downward movement ko barhawa de sakti hai. Traders ke liye yeh tabdeeli both challenges aur opportunities paida karti hai. Jo log long positions hold kar rahe hain, unko apni strategies dobara ghore se dekhni par sakti hai, special agar pair support levels ko tor kar neeche jata hai. Wahan short sellers ke liye yeh environment mazeed girawat se faida uthane ke liye moafiq ho sakta hai, opsalar agar bearish momentum barhti hai. Bunyadi baat yeh hogi ke dekhna hoga ke USDJPY pair 146.86 level ke ird gird kis tarah behave karta hai aur kya yeh zone reversal ka point banega ya sirf mazeed bearish action ke liye ek stepping stone banega. USDJPY pair ke recent price action se yeh zahir hota hai ke bearish sentiment mein ek shiddat aayi hai, jahan sellers ne successful push karke price ko 146.86 zone tak le aaye hain. Yeh movement sirf sellers ki qabliyat ko zahir nahi karti ke unhone peechle nuqsan cover kar liye hain, balke yeh bhi dikhata hai ke unka market par naya control hai. Is shift ke implications door tak ja sakte hain, depend karta hai ke support at 146.86 hold karta hai ya mazeed declines ke liye raasta banata hai. Traders ko hoshiyaar rehna chahiye, kyunke agle kuch sessions shayad pair ke future direction ke bare mein critical insights provide karenge, jo iss evolving market landscape mein sahi position le ke trading opportunities provide USD/JPY ke trading options mein, buy option ab bhi USD/ JPY movement ko dominate karega. Isliye, main recommend karta hoon ke is currency pair ko chhoti lot sizes ke sath trade karein aur stop orders set karein taake potential losses ko minimize kiya ja sake, kyunki situation rapidly adverse ho sakti hai

Jumay ke din, JPY ne US Dollar (USD) ke muqable mein 14-mahinon ki neechey ki had ko chua, aur 140.41 tak gir gaya. Yeh girawat ek wasee market trend ko zahir karti hai jahan JPY ko pressure ka samna hai, jo ke Bank of Japan (BoJ) ki monetary policy mein tabdeelion ki wajah se ho raha hai. BoJ ka hawkish stance ikhtiyar karna aur 0.25% ke qareeb interest rates barhane ka faisla Yen carry trade ke khaatma ka sabab bana. Is ke ilawa, "Yenterventions" ke zariye Yen ko mazboot karne ki koshishon ne is currency ko Greenback ke muqable mein multi-decade lows se 12.5% se zyada ka izafa dikhaya. Yen ka halya sentiment monetary policy, market interventions, aur global economic conditions ka aik pechida khel hai. JPY ka historic lows se recover karna aur USD ke muqable mein is ka halya performance currency markets ki dynamic nature ko zahir karta hai, jo ke policymakers ke liye challenges paish karta hai.

Bank of Japan ka Ehtiyaati Rawaaya Interest Rates ke Hawalay Se

Japan ki monetary policy ka mustaqbil ab bhi pechida hai, jahan BoJ ke officials ne mazeed rate hikes ka imkaan zahir kiya hai. Lekin, market mein barhati hui volatility ke jawab mein unka rawaya zyada ehtiyaati ho gaya hai. Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki ne zor diya ke BoJ market developments ko qareebi tor par dekhte rahega, magar monetary policy ke faislay BoJ ke daira-e-ikhtiyar mein rahenge. Yeh ehtiyaati stance economic growth ko barhawa dene aur currency stability ko qaim rakhne ke darmiyan aik balance ka izhar hai.

Analysts ka Rai ke Hawalay Se

Julius Baer ke halya tajziya ke mutabiq, BoJ ko abhi ke levels ke ilawa mazeed baray rate hikes karne ki zaroorat nahi hogi. Analyst ka khayal hai ke jab market conditions mazid stable ho jayengi, toh 500-basis point interest rate ka faraq jo JPY aur USD ke darmiyan hai, currency movements ko mutasir karega. Magar analyst yeh nahi samajhta ke qareebi mustaqbil mein Yen mein koi khaas izafa dekha jayega

USD/JPY currency pair ki qeemat ki haliya soorat-e-haal ka tajziya hai. USD/JPY pair ne abhi abhi 144.53 ke support level ko tor diya hai, jo yeh zahir karta hai ke downtrend ka silsila jari reh sakta hai. Breakout ke baad 99 points ki girawat hui, jis ke baad pair ne upward correction ki koshish ki, aur kharidaar 144.53 ke resistance level tak kuch ground wapas hasil karne mein kamyab hue. Iss muqam se sell positions kholna munasib ho sakta hai, aur mazeed girawat ka target 140-141 range tak ho sakta hai. Dosri surat mein, agar pair 144.53 resistance ke upar rebound hota hai, toh recovery jari reh sakti hai, aur agle resistance 146.38 tak ponchne ka aim ho sakta hai. Hourly chart par ek ascending channel jhanda ki tarah nazar aa raha hai, jo yeh suggest karta hai ke downtrend dobara shuru ho sakta hai. Lekin H4 chart par pair ek descending channel mein hai aur uski lower boundary se bounce off hua hai. Agar price 144.49 ko tor de, toh 145.69 ka target lekar khareedari ki strategy munasib ho sakti hai USD/JPY pair ne abhi hal hi mein 143 tak girawat dekhi thi, lekin American trading session ke akhir tak 100 points ka izafa hotay hue recovery ki. Daily price chart ab ek bullish pattern dikha raha hai. Bears abhi tak price ko 144.99 ke key level ke neeche dhakelne mein nakaam rahe hain, jis se downward trend ke jari rehne par shak paida hota hai. Maujooda market ki uncertainty ko dekhte hue, ehtiyat ki zaroorat hai, kyun ke price kuch dinon tak is level ke aas-paas reh sakti hai. US dollar index ne ek mazboot weekly support level ko choo liya hai, jo yeh zahir karta hai ke dollar jald hi ek corrective rebound kar sakta hai. Speaker is waqt sirf sell positions lene ka soch raha hai aur buy karne ka koi irada nahi rakhta. Currency pair ne neeche se 143.99 level ko test kiya hai aur ab 144.49 tak upar chali gayi hai, jo ek positive sign hai, aur bulls Asian trading session ke dauran price ko mazeed 49 points tak le jaa sakte hain. Maujooda price 143.43 hai, jo 141.70 ke aham support level se thoda upar hai. Yeh level unn traders ka key target ho sakta hai jo girawat par bet kar rahe hain. Kuch consolidation ke baad, pair mazeed girne ka rujhaan rakh sakta hai. Lekin Bank of Japan ke hone ke bawajood, USD/JPY ki exchange rate mein zyada girawat ki umeed nahi ki ja sakti. Woh pehle hi ishara de chuke hain ke woh yen ki qeemat mein tezi se utar chadhav par mudakhlat kar sakte hain, jo ke yen ko kamzor kar sakta hai agar yeh ziyada mazboot ho jaye. Is liye, 129 ka target haqeeqat par mabni nahi lagta, kyun ke Bank of Japan 139 ke aas-paas mudakhlat kar sakta hai aur apni currency ko kamzor karne ke liye bazaar mein yen ki badi miktar inject kar sakta hai USD/JPY pair par asar pada. Natija ye hai ke buying strength kam ho gayi hai, aur market mein ek ehtiyaati soch dekhne ko mil rahi hai. Aaj ka market action zyada tar mazeed economic data releases, khaaskar US inflation expectations aur consumer confidence reports p

Jumay ke din, USD ke muqablay mein spot price ne apni girawat ko barqarar rakha, jo is haftay ke nuqsan ko aur barha raha tha. Yeh girawat mazeed tawajjo ka markaz bani, khaaskar jab ke Middle East mein geopolitical tensions barh rahi hain, jo ho sakta hai yen ke liye kuch support faraham karein. Israeli intelligence reports ke mutabiq Iran shayad Israel par seedha hamla karne wala hai, Hamas ke leader Ismail Haniyeh ke Tehran mein qatal ka badla lene ke liye. Market ke band hone tak, USD/JPY ka currency pair lagbhag 140.81 par trade kar raha tha.
USD/JPY ke Fundamentals:

Dusri taraf, US Dollar apni challenges ka samna kar raha hai. Traders ab intezar kar rahe hain ke September mein US Federal Reserve (Fed) ek bara rate cut karega. CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq, 50-basis point cut ka imkaan 72.0% tak barh gaya hai, jo ek haftay pehle sirf 11.8% tha. Is ke bawajood, USD ne apne kuch intraday losses ko recover kar liya. US Dollar Index (DXY), jo ke Greenback ki qeemat ko chhe badi currencies ke muqablay mein napta hai, 101.00 ke level par qaraar liya huwa hai.

Bank of Japan (BoJ) ki July 30-31 Monetary Policy Meeting se aaye Summary of Opinions ke mutabiq, kai members ka kehna hai ke economy aur prices umeed ke mutabiq barh rahe hain. BoJ ka maqsaad hai ke medium term mein neutral rate "kam az kam 1%" ke qareeb rahe. Magar BoJ ke hawkish stance ka asar filhaal zyada arsey tak nahi chalega. Global risk aversion se ho sakta hai ke policy-tightening ka silsila ruk jaye. Japan ki equity markets mein volatility bhi BoJ ki accommodative policies ke khatme ke baad barh gayi hai, jo rate hikes ke prospects par asar andaz hui hai.

Daily Time Frame Technical Outlook:

USD/JPY pair ko foran resistance nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke aas paas, 143.06 ke level par mil sakti hai. Agar yeh level toot jata hai, to bearish momentum kam ho sakta hai aur pair ko 50-day EMA par test karne ka moka mil sakta hai, jo 149.33 ke qareeb hai, aur us ke baad "throwback support turned resistance" 150.50 par. Downside par, pair ko support 140.00 ke aas paas mil sakta hai, aur agla support 139.25 par ho sakta hai.

Jumay tak, pair lagbhag 140.80 par trade kar raha tha. Daily chart ko dekhte hue, yeh maloom hota hai ke pair abhi tak nine-day EMA ke neeche hai, jo ke short-term mein bearish trend ka ishara karta hai. Is ke ilawa, 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) 30 ke level se upar aaya hai, jo yeh batata hai ke ek potential correction shuru ho sakta hai.

Jumay ke din, USD ke muqablay mein spot price ne apni girawat ko barqarar rakha, jo is haftay ke nuqsan ko aur barha raha tha. Yeh girawat mazeed tawajjo ka markaz bani, khaaskar jab ke Middle East mein geopolitical tensions barh rahi hain, jo ho sakta hai yen ke liye kuch support faraham karein. Israeli intelligence reports ke mutabiq Iran shayad Israel par seedha hamla karne wala hai, Hamas ke leader Ismail Haniyeh ke Tehran mein qatal ka badla lene ke liye. Market ke band hone tak, USD/JPY ka currency pair lagbhag 140.81 par trade kar raha tha.
USD/JPY ke Fundamentals:

Dusri taraf, US Dollar apni challenges ka samna kar raha hai. Traders ab intezar kar rahe hain ke September mein US Federal Reserve (Fed) ek bara rate cut karega. CME FedWatch tool ke mutabiq, 50-basis point cut ka imkaan 72.0% tak barh gaya hai, jo ek haftay pehle sirf 11.8% tha. Is ke bawajood, USD ne apne kuch intraday losses ko recover kar liya. US Dollar Index (DXY), jo ke Greenback ki qeemat ko chhe badi currencies ke muqablay mein napta hai, 101.00 ke level par qaraar liya huwa hai.

Bank of Japan (BoJ) ki July 30-31 Monetary Policy Meeting se aaye Summary of Opinions ke mutabiq, kai members ka kehna hai ke economy aur prices umeed ke mutabiq barh rahe hain. BoJ ka maqsaad hai ke medium term mein neutral rate "kam az kam 1%" ke qareeb rahe. Magar BoJ ke hawkish stance ka asar filhaal zyada arsey tak nahi chalega. Global risk aversion se ho sakta hai ke policy-tightening ka silsila ruk jaye. Japan ki equity markets mein volatility bhi BoJ ki accommodative policies ke khatme ke baad barh gayi hai, jo rate hikes ke prospects par asar andaz hui hai.

Daily Time Frame Technical Outlook:

USD/JPY pair ko foran resistance nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke aas paas, 143.06 ke level par mil sakti hai. Agar yeh level toot jata hai, to bearish momentum kam ho sakta hai aur pair ko 50-day EMA par test karne ka moka mil sakta hai, jo 149.33 ke qareeb hai, aur us ke baad "throwback support turned resistance" 150.50 par. Downside par, pair ko support 140.00 ke aas paas mil sakta hai, aur agla support 139.25 par ho sakta hai.

Jumay tak, pair lagbhag 140.80 par trade kar raha tha. Daily chart ko dekhte hue, yeh maloom hota hai ke pair abhi tak nine-day EMA ke neeche hai, jo ke short-term mein bearish trend ka ishara karta hai. Is ke ilawa, 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) 30 ke level se upar aaya hai, jo yeh batata hai ke ek potential correction shuru ho sakta hai.

/JPY ki price 145.54 se upar move karti hai, to ye bullish reversal ka ishara ho sakta hai. Aise mein pair resistance levels 145.91 aur shayad 146.24 ki taraf barh sakta hai. Lekin agar ye upward movement ko maintain nahi karti, to bearish trend aur bhi mazboot ho sakta hai, khaaskar agar pair 145.05 ke neeche girti hai. Aise mein further declines dekhne ko mil sakti hain, price 144.88 tak ja sakti hai aur shayad 144.25 tak bhi extend ho sakti hai. Bigger context bhi bearish sentiment ko support karta hai. Pair monthly Pivot level 146.24, weekly Pivot level 145.29, aur daily Pivot level 145.91 se neeche trade kar raha hai. Ye indicators USD/JPY par overall downward pressure ko reflect karte hain. Monthly Pivot level pehle 153.85 tha, jo market dynamics mein significant shift ko highlight karta hai. Isi tarah, weekly Pivot level pehle 147.65 tha, jo recent period mein downward trend ko darshata hai. USD/JPY pair mein aik tezi se girawat dekhi gayi hai, jo ke 145.00 ke qareeb pohanch gayi hai. Is girawat ka sabab Bank of Japan ke Governor Kazuo Ueda ki hawkish guidance thi. Ueda ne ye dohraya ke BOJ ko iss saal interest rates mazeed barhane ki zarurat hai, aur agar economic aur inflationary conditions expectations ke mutabiq hon, toh central bank kisi bhi qadam uthane mein hichkichahat nahi karega. Is bayaan se Japanese yen mein mazid izafa hua, jis ne USD/JPY pair par selling pressure daal diya. Is waqt yeh 144.80 support level ke aas paas hold kar rahi hai.
USD/JPY pair ke overnight decline ka sabab bani. Iske ilawa, US manufacturing sector se aayi negative data, jo ke dopahar mein release hui, ne mazeed decline ko fuel kiya. Filhal yen zyada tar ek haven ke tor par kaam kar raha hai, doosri major currencies ke muqable mein dollar ke khilaf. Aaj S&P 500 index kareeban 3% gira, jo yeh indicate karta hai ke yen ki haven ke tor par demand barh rahi hai. A slight pullback is pair ko "discount" par khareedne ka moqa faraham karta hai. Lekin yeh market hai, aur yehan hamesha unexpected movements ho sakti hain. Main dekh raha hoon ke yeh pair 144.89 support level ke aas-paas kis tarah react karta hai, jabke broader market sentiment par bhi nazar rakhi hui hai.

USD/JPY ki pricing movements ka live analysis karte hain. Bohat se log ek significant bullish correction ki ummeed kar rahe hain, jo ke tab ho sakta hai jab market historical support zone 140.36 ke qareeb pohnchti hai. Lekin, ye note karna zaroori hai ke strong bearish trend abhi bhi barqarar hai, jo indicate karta hai ke Japanese yen ke fundamentals recent interest rate hike ke baad play ho rahe hain jo Bank of Japan ne ki thi.

Current scenario ko dekhte hue, mujhe lagta hai ke maximum bullish correction moving average resistance zone ke qareeb 143.21 tak ho sakta hai. Main is level se bechne ke mauqe dhoondunga, kyunki further declines kaafi probable lagti hain. Higher time frames par volatility ka koi slowdown nahi ya sideways movement ki taraf shift ka na hona yeh suggest karta hai ke local ya global trend mein koi imminent reversal nahi hai.

Maujooda market dynamics Japan ke central bank ke fundamentals aur yen ki ongoing strengthening ko reflect karti hain, jo ke shayad aage bhi continue karegi. USD/JPY daily chart ko dekhein: wave structure downward hai aur MACD indicator apni signal line ke neeche lower sales zone mein hai.

Halaanki recent growth ki koshish successful nahi hui, lekin divergence ab bhi barqarar hai, aur mujhe ummeed hai ke ek aur push upward aayega. Mere short-term target ka plan hai ke nearest horizontal resistance 143.82 tak ka rise ho. Long-term target wo descending resistance line hai jo last two wave peaks se bani hai. Aaj ki intraday analysis ke mutabiq sirf buying opportunities hain, kyunki selling abhi unfavorable lagti hai. H4 period mein MACD par bhi bullish divergence dekha gaya hai, jo growth ko zyada likely outcome banaata hai.

Overall descending trend ko follow karna shayad aasan lag sakta hai, lekin mujhe lagta hai ke yeh divergence disappoint nahi karegi—lekin USDJPY ke saath kuch bhi ho sakta hai. Recent months mein, divergences ne substantial declines ki bajaye sideways movement ka natija diya hai. Hum hourly chart par mirror level ka formation monitor kar sakte hain, jahan resistance support mein shift hota hai. Agar yeh level banta hai, to yeh MACD mein substantial divergence ko confirm karega.

USD/JPY ki girawat US se naye data ke beech aayi hai jo ke July ke liye Unemployment Rate ke barhne ko darshata hai, jo ke US economy mein potential recession ke concerns ko badhawa deta hai. Market ka reaction yeh hai ke Federal Reserve se substantial interest rate cuts ko price in kiya ja raha hai. Investors ab September aur November dono mein 50 basis point (bps) rate cut ki ummeed kar rahe hain, aur December mein ek additional quarter-point cut bhi expected hai. LSEG ke data ke mutabiq, September meeting mein 50-bps cut ka near 99% probability hai. Yeh zyada aggressive rate cuts ki expectations US Dollar (USD) par downward pressure daal rahi hain. USD/JPY sell karne ka plan kar raha hoon sirf tab jab 146.76 ka test hota hai jo ke chart par red line se dikhaya gaya hai, jo ke pair ke rapid decline ko lead karega. Sellers ke liye key target hoga 145.81, jahan mein short positions exit karunga aur foran long positions opposite direction mein open karunga, expecting 20-25 pips ki movement opposite direction mein is level se. USD/JPY par pressure kisi bhi waqt wapas aa sakta hai, khas tor par agar correction pehle aadha din mein unsuccessful hoti hai aur daily high ka test nahi hota. Important: Sell karne se pehle, ensure karein ke MACD indicator zero mark ke niche ho aur usse decline karna shuru ho
USD/JPY pair abhi tak bearish trend mein hai. 9-day exponential moving average (EMA) 21-day EMA ke neeche hai, aur 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) 50 level se neeche hai, jo ke downtrend ko confirm karta hai. Yeh pair qareebi support 141.69 ke paas (jo ke saat mahinay ka low hai) dhoond sakta hai, aur agla support 140.25 par ho sakta hai. Agar upar ki taraf dekha jaye, toh pair ko resistance 9-day EMA ke paas 145.63 par face karna padega, aur phir 21-day EMA par 146.73 par. Agar yeh levels break hotay hain, toh psychological barrier 150.00 tak rasta khul sakta hai, aur agla resistance 154.50 par ho ga. Kal ke 147.00 ke ooper ke brief surge ke bawajood, USD/JPY pair apni momentum ko sustain nahi kar saka jab 20-day EMA ne support trend line se retreat kiya. Technical indicators, jisme RSI aur Stochastic shamil hain, aik potential reversal suggest karte hain, jabke 50- aur 200-day moving averages ke darmiyan death cross longer-term bearish trend ka ishara karta hai
Bank of Japan (BoJ) ki policy outlook zyada optimistic nazar aati hai. Rabobank analysts ne note kiya hai ke BoJ ki recent policy statement Japan ki economic prospects ke positive assessment ko reflect karti hai, jis mein moderate increases in fixed investment aur corporate profits ki improvements shamil hain. Wage increases bhi mukhtalif regions, industries, aur firm sizes mein phail rahi hain. Yeh optimistic outlook late 2024 ya early 2025 mein potential rate hikes ke liye jagah chhodti hai.

Jumeraat ke din ke European trading session mein, currency pair ka girawat dekhne ko mila, jo ke lagbhag 140.31 par aa gaya. Yeh girawat isliye thi kyun ke investors ne safe-haven assets se shift hona shuru kar diya. Riskier investments ki taraf badhte hue rujhan ne U.S. recession ke potential khauf ko kam kar diya.

Japanese Yen aur Interest Rate Perspectives:

Julius Baer ke haal ke tajziyat ke mutabiq, Bank of Japan (BoJ) ke liye abhi tak interest rates mein koi bade tabdeeli ka imkaan nahi hai. Forecast kehta hai ke jab market conditions stabilize ho jayein, tab 500 basis points ka substantial interest rate gap—Japanese Yen (JPY) aur U.S. Dollar (USD) ke darmiyan—currency pair ke behavior ko asar انداز کرے گا. Iska matlab hai ke Yen ke barhne ke koi zyada chances nahi hain. Is waqt Japan ke Finance Minister, Shunichi Suzuki, ne yeh wazeh kiya ke monetary policy decisions BoJ ke under hain, lekin wo market developments ko closely monitor karte rahenge, Reuters ke mutabiq.

US Dollar ke Challenges:

USD bhi apne challenges ka samna kar raha hai jahan speculation barh rahi hai ke Federal Reserve (Fed) September mein rate cut kar sakta hai. Market participants mixed signals ko analyze kar rahe hain, jahan soft landing aur recession ke risk ke beech balance banaya ja raha hai. CME FedWatch tool filhal 25-basis point rate cut ki ummeed ko reflect karta hai ke Fed is mahine ke end tak implement kar sakta hai.

H4 Chart Technical Analysis aur Market Sentiment:

Pehle se expectations thi ke USD 140.30 aur 147.71 ke beech fluctuate karega. Halankeh USD ne temporarily higher range 140.59/148.21 mein trade kiya, lekin jumeraat ko yeh relatively unchanged 140.80 par close hua. Kisi bhi decisive momentum ke bina, expect kiya ja raha hai ke USD range mein trade karega, jo ke shayad 140.50 aur 150.00 ke beech ho.

Jumeraat tak, USD/JPY ka spot price lagbhag 141.00 ke aas-paas hai. Chaar ghante ke chart ko dekhne se yeh nazar aata hai ke pair nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) ke neeche trade kar raha hai, jo ke short-term mein bearish trend ki taraf ishara karta hai. Iske ilawa, 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) 30 par hai, jo yeh bhi darshata hai ke currency pair ek mumkinah correction ke qareeb ho sakta hai.